TOP TIPS for picking the initial FPL squad

 

Now that the Community Shield game is out of the way (I managed to find a suitably grungy little dive bar, The Shamrock, to enjoy it in), it is reasonable to start thinking about the coming season of Fantasy Premier League for the first time.... Although I still wouldn't actually draft a squad until this Friday afternoon!

In a day or two, I'll try to start putting out a few posts with discussions of the main selection dilemmas of the year. (I've already done one on the key conundrum of the new season: which, if any, of this year's three 'super-premium' players might still be unavoidable picks, despite being so horribly over-priced.)

I am here compiling a summary of some of the key advice I've given on choosing the Initial Squad in this game, with links embedded to my original longer posts on each topic, if you want to look into any of them in a bit more detail.

How to choose the INITIAL SQUAD

This is my comprehensive guide on the main principles to keep in mind. Obviously, a lot of the specific player examples are now out of date, but the basic advice should still be clear enough. [I also have a potentially useful = or encouraging - follow-up post on how to assess if you've done a good job with your squad selection.]

You should also try to avoid falling in thrall to the myth of the 'differential', the misguided belief that players can be worth having just because they are low-owned. This is obvious nonsense; you need to focus on points-potential (within the reference-frames of what else you're doing with your squad, and how much money you've got left), not ownership level. [See What a 'differential' is not... and The true meaning of 'differential' for a fuller discussion on this.]

You might also find it useful to keep in mind these rough scales or tiers of points returns and pricing.

And here are a selection of more specific tips...

Don't take a chance on uncertain starters (or new arrivals)

Players new to the league, players who've had injury problems over the summer, players who might still be a bit fatigued after the World Cup, players facing a lot of possible competition for a regular starting slot:... these all have to be avoided in the initial squad. Early in the season, we have enough problems with unexpected dropouts among players we thought we could rely on as nailed starters, without taking any unnecessary extra risks like this.

And likewise,  Beware of double-ups and treble-ups

In general, you want to avoid over-exposing yourself to any one club, even the strongest of them; but especially at the start of the season - when you just don't know (however 'well' they may have appeared to do in pre-season) what their, or anyone else's, form is going to be like in the opening few games.

Stack the midfield  and  The fifth midfield slot is where the value lies

It is amazing how wilfully blind so many FPL managers are about this most obvious and fundamental element of the game: midfielders earn more points than the other positions, and usually dominate the overall player rankings at the end of the season (typically at least 6 or 7 of the Top 10, often as many as 15 of the Top 20). This simple fact dictates that you should be trying to play all 5 midfielders as often as possible - and that that 5th midfielder is likely to be the squad slot that gives you the biggest differential advantage over your rivals!

 

A good rotation pair can beat a premium keeper

A very basic point about goalkeeper selection - but many people seem to fail to grasp it!

Two mid-price picks beat a premium and a dud

While this point is not as invariably and incontrovertibly true with other positions as it is with goalkeepers,.... it is very nearly so.

How to fill the 'bargain' - 'budget enabler' - spots

At the start of the season, when budget is a bit tight, you can't usually afford to spend much on your 4th and 5th defenders or your 3rd forward, and you might be skimping a bit on your back-up keeper and your 4th/5th midfielders too. But you really need to guard against making false economies - especially in midfield.

Defensive premiums aren't usually worth it

You have to think very, very carefully about spending more than 6.0 million on a defender - because, 9 times out of 10, they just won't be that much, if at all better than several of the cheaper rival picks.

And... The super-premiums aren't usually worth it

The most expensive players each year, in any position, are never 'worth it' in pure value-for-money, points-per-pound terms. But I suggest some other criteria by which to evaluate if it may be worth paying a super-high price for a player.

Attacking returns will still (usually) beat 'defensive points'

'Defensive points' are a novelty in the game, only introduced last year (the 25-26 season), so we're still struggling to assess just what impact they are having. I made this prediction last year that, while the new points would be very nice to have, they probably wouldn't on their own make anyone a preferable pick over someone who offered high attacking returns. Many people are not yet convinced of this because... we happened to have a horrible year last year (the lowest-scoring FPL season ever in midfield!). However, the top performers on these new points, in both midfield and defence, also happened to produce quite a good number of attacking contributions as well: they wouldn't have finished so strongly in the overall rankings if they hadn't done well under both headings; and they still wouldn't have been nearly so high up in the final table in any normal year!!

 

NO-ONE is a 'set-and-forget'

FPL managers often naively assume that all they have to do is guess which players are going to end the season with the most points, pick them all, and then.... hang on to them until they get injured. Um, no - it just doesn't work like that. There are very, very few players - not even the season's top points-producers - who are actually worth hanging on to for the entire season.

You NEED your Bench!

Many people ignore and disparage their Bench. But it is super-important, and it is foolish to 'go light' on it - even at the start of the season.

'Dead men' earn NO POINTS; and they LOSE VALUE

In particular, you cannot afford to leave empty seats on your Bench - with injured or non-starting players.

These three broader overviews of 'how the game works' might also be of interest...

What MAKES THE DIFFERENCE in FPL?

This is a quick round-up of the factors that determine whether you finish the season with a high ranking. (Alas and alack, 'player selection' doesn't feature very high!)

Signs an FPL manager doesn't know what they're doing 

A fairly recent post itemising the most common mistakes we see - even in the squads of supposedly 'top' managers!!

And...  Are you a 'good' FPL manager?

My definitive checklist for identifying your possible handicaps and shortcomings in the game.

And I regularly recommend that if you're going to seek help or inspiration from online advice,... you should confine yourself to some of these excellent tactical analysis channels on Youtube.

You can find other bits and pieces of advice on specific topics like this in my Adages, In a Nutshell, and Top TIPS! series. [I never figured out how to differentiate these strands, and have ended up tagging a lot of posts with two or even all three of the labels. The only consistent distinction is that the Adages are (mostly) quite a bit shorter, and have the main point usefully summarised in the post title!]

And lastly, of course,... Remember - it's mostly LUCK!

And..... Remember The ONE GREAT TRUTH of the game.