Sunday, August 3, 2025

Attacking returns will still (usually) beat 'defensive points'

FPL's official illustrative table of who the top-performing defenders would have been in the 24/25 season, if the 'defensive points' introduced in the following season had been available
 

FPL has thrown a major spanner-in-the-works this season - by introducing (for the first-time ever) a significant adjustment of the game's basic points system.

As I already complained at some length, this revision - like nearly all the changes the FPL hierarchy has foisted on us in recent seasons - is ill thought-out, clumsily implemented, and utterly unnecessary.


The reason it's so discombulating at the start of this new season is that FPL has given us almost no information on which to assess just what sort of an impact it's going to have (nothing, in fact, beyond a few token illustrations of the additional points that would have been earned by a handful of top defenders and defensive midfielders last season - as in the table above).

However, the indications from this scant information - and from our own observations of the game - are that this rule change won't have too substantial an impact.

These new points are hard to earn (you need to reach quite a high threshold of varied 'defensive actions' in order to qualify), they are capped at a single award per game (so, you only get 2 extra points, no matter how many of these 'defensive actions' you complete), and are most likely to be earned in games where the player's team is having a hard time of it (and hence the player is unlikely to earn clean sheet points - or any other points - in the same match).

The change will make a difference for very active defensive players who regularly register significantly more tackles, interceptions, etc. than their peers. But all that is going to do is elevate some defenders to the upper ranks for that position, who might not normally be at the forefront like that. If these players are at lower price-points, and seem likely to do rather better out of the new 'defensive points' than certain of their more premium-priced peers, then they should take priority in the selection of your defensive roster. But that's a pretty big 'IF'; most of the players who are most likely to benefit from these points are already the most popular - and most expensive - defenders. (And the few who might not have been, like Tarkowski and Lacroix, have had their prices bumped up a bit this year!)

And the sample statistics grudgingly released by FPL seem to suggest that only a handful of the very best defensive players will earn these extra points as often as once every two games; most, presumably, will do no better than once every three to four games.

And 4 of these points over 5 games, for instance, wouldn't be worth more than - or, probably as much as - a single assist (which is likely to reap more bonus points as well). Plus, of course, more attack-minded defenders like Kerkez and Cucurella are quite likely to be picking up 'defensive points' as well from time to time (if not quite so often as the monsters like Milenkovic and Caicedo).

And it doesn't seem likely that these new points for defenders will raise anyone over 150 or 160 points for the season - which is nowhere near what the best midfielders and forwards produce. So, contemplating a formation shift to start more defenders - which some poor fools have been floating in the online forums - is just RIDICULOUS. Even optimum rotation of defender picks for form and fixtures can't get you up to more than 170 or 180 points for each starting slot; whereas you can realistically hope for more like 200 points, or even a little more from good rotation in the other outfield position categories. [Admittedly, that hasn't really been the case in the first half of the 2025/26 season; but that's because there have, for various reasons, been freakishly low returns from midfield players so far, not because defenders are doing that much better this year.]


There is a chance that a few really high-performing defensive midfielders might get up into contention for the budget 5th midfield slot as a result of these new extra points; but I think that's only likely to happen with a player who also gets a decent number of goals (and/or assists) - which, at present, means.... probably only Declan Rice (maybe Palhinha,.... if he's on penalties?!). But as I pointed out yesterday, that 5th midfield seat is so important that you're probably still going to be better off concentrating on more attacking players who have hit a hot goalscoring streak (and rotating often, to keep bringing in the most in-form options).


The new 'defensive points' will significantly enhance the prospects of a few defenders and defensive midfielders - but probably not to the point of making them priority starting choices. Thus, the impact of the rule change on squad and team selection is likely to be pretty minimal, I think.

[But I could be wrong. It's hard to envision just what's going to happen with any confidence before the season's under way.]


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