Endgame

 

Gosh, there are only just over 200 hours left before the 2024-25 Premier League season is all wrapped up! The Fat Lady is doing her warm-ups....

Overwhelmed as we've often felt by fatigue and frustration (and a frequent raging sense of injustice....) during the course of this season, we'll miss it when it's finally over....

We see a lot of people on the FPL forums at the moment frantically worrying what they can do to 'improve' their ranking over the last two gameweeks, clinch a mini-league or cup victory....  The answer, alas, is NOTHING. Just keep playing your game, and hope for the best!  People who go desperately 'chasing' points by taking wild gambles usually just shoot themselves in the foot.

If you're already in an impressive rank position - top 100,000, or top 50,000 or top 10,000, or whatever; or near the top of some of your leagues - that's about as good as you can ever hope to get (realistically, it's probably far better than you ever expected at the start of the season; and, very probably, rather better than you've deserved...); so you should be happy with that.... and not still feverishly chasing rainbows.

People who get hung up on hoping for further improvement, when they're already at Icarus altitudes, are probably just setting themselves up for huge disappointment. The upper end of the rankings tend to get pretty strung out; and there probably aren't going to be too many people who achieve significant further rises in rank in those strata over Gameweeks 37 and 38; a good number, in fact probably the majority, will slip back slightly; a good 10% or 20% (mostly the ones who were chasing too hard...) may fall back disastrously, allowing a few late entries into the upper ranks.

Croatia's Lovro Budišin and his team 'Aina Krafth Bree' (is that a pun that only works in Croatian??) are a staggering 43 points clear at the top of the global rankings, so it's pretty unlikely that anyone is now going to displace him as this year's Champion. (He's already been in the No. 1 spot for 6 weeks,... and in the Top Ten for 16 weeks!! That is a freakishly good run of form, even for the Global Champ...)

Top of the leader board -  after GW36

But only 6 other managers are within 20 points of second-place Max Littleproud, so.... there might not be too much movement at the top of the table at all over the coming week.

Only 53 managers have reached 2,600 points for the season so far; another 544 have a score from 2,550 to 2,599. And nearly 4,700 more have reached 2,500 points (an improbably large number, in fact, are currently on exactly 2,500,... and 2,499....).

98,248 managers have already reached 2,400 points - which would, in fact, be an extremely good total for season's end. And this in a season where we've had a lot of unusually low-scoring gameweeks, and a lot of surprises and upsets (City being shit for most of the season, Arsenal being much weaker than last season, Liverpool winning the title at a canter, despite being much less convincing than they were in the Klopp heyday a few years ago...); by rights, you'd expect this to be a below-average scoring season, yet all these folks have still managed to amass absolutely ridiculous points. (There's no accounting for LUCK....)

526,229 managers have reached 2,300 points or better - which I would regard as a very good total with two games left; if on 2,300 now, you should be able to reach 2,400 by the end of the season; and if you still have a bonus chip to play, or can somehow otherwise manage at least one very good gameweek from the last two (and actually, GW38 looks like it could be pretty good for everyone, with a very kind cluster of final fixtures!), you could maybe still get above 2,450. 

2,400+ points - that's pretty AWESOME: that is, in fact, about the best you can achieve on merit alone - anything more than that requires an awful lot of LUCK as well. And there is no point in hoping to be LUCKY.

BETTER THINGS to aim at

I mentioned this morning that I grow extremely weary of the tiresome and misguided obsession among so many FPL managers with RANK. It really tells you nothing useful about how good your decision-making in the game is, only.... how much luckier than you a certain number of people have been. (Not everyone who's above you is only there because of luck, of course. But the sorry truth - a cold, cruel statistical inevitability - is that the higher you are in the overall ranking, the greater the percentage is likely to be of the people above you who have simply been luckier than you. If you don't want to feel abused by luck, you should aim for the lower end of the rankings....!)

So, what can you focus on instead, to give you some sense of your achievement or progress in the game?

Well, I already touched on this point in a couple of very early posts on this blog. 

First, I outlined here what various points thresholds indicate about your relative ability. (Points totals are slightly more reliable as a measure of progress for individuals because, for most of us [though not, by any means, everyone!], 'luck' more or less balances out over the course of a season. Final rank position, however, can still vary enormously, because the number of total players may be more or less from one year to another, the scope for luck to have a distorting impact may be more in one year than another [there was a HUGE, unprecedented number of injuries last year, for instance; and there have been some particularly bad refereeing decisions this season, as well as a somewhat 'unexpected' meltdown for the champions, City...; things like this can make a big difference, but much more so in some years than others]; and there may, for undiscernible reasons, just be far more hugely lucky people in one year than another - so, your overall rank may differ considerably from one year to another, even though your points tally is remarkably similar.)

Second, I suggested that in addition to tracking your progress against points 'milestones' (or just seeking to regularly beat the global average), it is better to focus on small mini-leagues against people you know, or at least on more modest-sized 'public leagues' where you can develop some sense of familiarity with your closest rivals (studying their selections and performance over time, such that you start to build up an awareness of the quirks and preferences in their approach to the game, their strengths and weaknesses). Pitting yourself against familiar opponents gives you a fuller sense of how you are performing - and a deeper satisfaction if you are indeed doing well. But, ideally, it should also help you to become less self-obsessed about the game - able to applaud a rival's success when they do better than you, able to recognise why it has happened. (If they really have made better choices than you, that is. And if they appear to have just been very lucky, learn to laugh it off. That should mean that next year, if you really are the better player, you will prevail.)  [My principal rivalry within the game is against an old college buddy. He's not actually very good at it. And so it can be rather galling when he does much better than me in his weekly points tallies. He has - once - even managed to beat me over a season... more by luck than anything else. But I am genuinely happy for him when he achieves these successes, whether they're fully deserved or not. My chief aim in competing against him is to encourage and goad and cajole him into paying more attention, so that he can gradually improve in the game... and eventually triumph in his small work league (which will be no mean achievement, because it does include a couple of rather impressive managers).]

A corollary to this latter point is that you might also try to focus more on 'head-to-head' battles with particular rivals, rather than overall points. I've never been bothered to enter any head-to-head leagues myself; but I do in practice keep a tally of my week-by-week performance against a few key rivals. And that, I think, is a more accurate measure of your overall ability than your relative points totals might be. (That college buddy of mine who managed to beat me a season or two back on the points totals was still well behind on the weekly head-to-head...)  A few stupendously lucky weeks where someone achieves a massive points advantage over you can effectively decide the whole season. (I noted in another early post that the quest to be a global No. 1 at season's end, or even in the top 10,000 or so, is pretty much over after the first few weeks, if you don't get off to a flying start... A genuine flying start, that is; not just faking it by blowing all your chips in the first few weeks!)

I have also ventured the - somewhat 'controversial' - view that your growth in squad value is actually a very reliable measure of your basic competence in the game. The danger with it is, of course, that you can try to focus solely on growing squad value - and that will probably be to the detriment of your points total or your head-to-head successes. But as an organic by-product of how you play the game from week-to-week, I think a healthy and consistent growth in squad value each year can be a very telling marker of your ability in the game. [Well, I used to think that. My confidence in the idea has been slightly shaken this season and last by the increasing volatility in the transfer market, by the sudden price drops being initiated by the sheep losing confidence and starting to bale on a good player after just two or three blank weeks....]

In a busy spell of early posting around the beginning of this 2024-2025 season, I also suggested some tips for gauging how good your initial squad selection is; and you can apply these same principles on an ongoing basis throughout the season to check if you've been keeping your squad in the best possible shape.

And finally, I produced a list of recommendations for how to get better at the game. I would suggest that if you examine your thought process around selection decisions etc. each week in reference to each of these categories.... you will develop a sense of whether you're getting better at the game, and why... regardless of what's going on with your points total or your ranking!

Yes, sorry, this post has ended up being just a 'greatest hits' compilation of links to earlier posts. I may at some point try to distil these observations - and perhaps a few novel ones too - into a simpler and more useful list. 

But I do earnestly believe that all of these things I've touched on above are more important than points or rank. Yes, really. 

This is the beginning of 'enlightenment': play the game not to reach arbitrary external goals, but for the innate sense of satisfaction to be derived from it, from the expense of thought and effort, from the grappling with the challenge, from the constant striving to be better.

"They think it's all over...."

 

It is is easy to become disheartened if you get your FPL season off to a particularly unlucky start... and you may even be tempted to quit the game entirely just a week or two in....

And you may be right to do so!

In my extensive skimming of the top FPL performers over the past 4 or 5 years or so,  I have discovered...  that the Global Champions - and most, if not all, of those who finish the year in the top few 1,000s or 10s of 1,000s - were invariably inside the top 500,000 or so (and usually, in fact, inside the top 100,000 or 200,000) by the end of GW5.

And in order to reach the top half million by then, you really can't afford to be much outside the top 2.5 or 3 million after GW1....

Hence - if you entertain grandiose dreams of perhaps topping the global rankings at season's end, or at least of cracking the top 10,000 or 20,000 - at least two-thirds of FPL players are already shit out of luck as far as that ambition is concerned; and in another four or five weeks, the game will probably be as good as over for nearly 95% of players.

Depressing, yes.

Starting quick out of the blocks is fairly crucial to attaining a really good overall finish; while a poor opening week can be calamitous.

And it is frighteningly easy to do that badly in the opening week. You don't have to make terrible choices; you just have to suffer a little bit of bad luck.

If, for example, you went with Isak, Watkins, and Muniz up front (an entirely justifiable set of selections) rather than Haaland, Havertz and Wood, you'd be looking at a sizeable points deficit just on those three picks alone. And even if you had Salah in midfield (god help you if you didn't....; in fact, god help you if you didn't make him captain!), if you'd gone for, say, Palmer, Bowen, Eze and Gordon as your other 4 choices (again, entirely sensible and defensible picks) rather than Saka, Jota, Mbeumo and Semenyo.... well, again, Fate has just crapped on you from a great height. (As I pointed out the other day, Palmer, Eze, and Gordon were denied the possibility of much higher scores by some terrible refereeing; so, it really is appalling luck that those players didn't produce more for you.)

This week's 'global average' score of 57 leaves you well outside the top 4,000,000. Even 10 points above that - which I usually regard as a good benchmark for a reasonably successful week (particularly when the global average is relatively low) - barely gets you into the top 2,000,000.

So, most of us will have to focus on different goals for this year. The BIG ONE has already got away.....

Goal setting

 

Many people like to set specific goals and objectives for their FPL year. And this is probably a useful thing - for helping you to maintain your focus and enthusiasm throughout the season, and giving you a ready measure of your progress and success.

However, most people seem to focus exclusively on RANK, picking an arbitrary level - Top 500,000, Top 100,000, Top 20,000.... or whatever - that they aspire to reach.

I think that's a complete waste of time. First, because those upper echelons are impossible to reach on skill alone (as I explained in detail in a post last weekend, you need a substantial helping of luck as well to get up that high; and many people at that level are relying on far more luck than skill...).  Second, because it's completely unrealistic for a newbie or a fairly inexperienced or 'casual' manager to get anywhere close to the Top 100,000 (without being very lucky!!); so, claiming something like that as your 'target' is only going to lead to discouragement.  And third, because there's much more variability in the rankings than there is in the average points returns from year to year:  you never know how many people are going to participate in each year, how many of them will take the game 'seriously', how many will be experienced.... and good.... and lucky. Some years, cracking the top 500,000 might not be much of an achievement at all, and others..... it could be quite a mountain to climb.

Hence, I like to focus primarily on points - rather than rank. I already did a short post on what different annual points totals tend to indicate about your performance in the game.

So, my tips for suitable GOALS to give you some focus and inspiration are:

1)  Choose an end-of-year points total that you want to reach.  [Try to make sure it's not completely unrealistic - not miles beyond your previous best; and if you've never played before, it's probably best to assume that you won't get much better than 1,800 or 1,900 first time out. You can also set yourself some intermediate milestones: e.g, every 9 or 10 games, you should be aiming to reach one-quarter of your final target.]

2)  Join some small leagues - ideally with people that you know in real life: and aim to finish TOP (or at least in the top five, say, if you think it's a pretty strong league).  [The strongest of all human motivations is the desire to put one over on friends, family members, workmates and neighbours! Playing against people you know rather than just anonymous netizens puts far more fire in your belly!]

3)  Look for some more mid-sized leagues you could also join, preferably ones where the standard of competition seems quite high. You need only set very general goals for these (at least until you've had a chance to gauge how well you compare to the other participants), such as striving to get into the top half or the top 25%.  [The global league - and many of the larger club and country and broadcaster leagues - are just too huge and anonymous to be interesting to me. I much prefer leagues with just a few 100s, or at most a few 1,000s of players - where you can over time start to recognise and get to know something about your competitors, at least the ones who are most often closest to you in the rankings. You can learn a lot from studying a rival's styles and preferences.]

These are all season-long focuses. For a more immediate weekly goal, the best thing you can do is....

4)  Focus on the 'global average' for the week, and see how much you can beat it by.  [If you're new to the game, just beating the weekly average fairly consistently, even by a little, is a pretty good start. Once you're managing that, you can steadily ramp up the margin of superiority you hope for: 5 points better than average, 10 points better.... 15 points better?  Note, however, that however good you are, there will be some weeks when everything goes wrong for you and you end up being substantially below the global average. Those weeks hurt bad - just got to suck it up.]

PROSPER, AND BE HAPPY!

What counts as A GOOD SCORE?

Season high scores from the global frontrunners can swing up and down a fair amount - so you might have to adjust your expectations according to the average returns in a given year..

Weekly high scores can vary HUGELY, and unpredictably - so, setting one arbitrary target there is pretty meaningless. 

I hope to be 10-15 points better than the global average every week.

And when I launched this blog, I stated that my ultimate goal is always to reach 2,500 points for the season.

Now, these days, you're probably going to need well over 2,600, or even 2,700 points - some years, perhaps, even above 2,800 points - to have a chance of being the Global Champion. But that's pie-in-the-sky stuff - not worth thinking about.

2,500 points usually represents the top 1% or so of participants, and is a massive pinnacle to climb!

2,300 points is a very, very good score - and if you can consistently achieve above that for a number of years... I would say you've arrived as a more-than-competent FPL manager.

2,100 points is fairly respectable - and would in fact be an outstanding debut season score for someone new to the game.

If you are a complete newbie, you should be reasonably happy with 1,800 or 1,900 points in your first season - that should put you at least a little above the global average.

Always striving to be better-than-the-average is a very good place to start in this game. Then, as you get better, you can gradually ramp up your expectations of how much better-than-the-average you can be!