THIS is why you shouldn't TripleCap in December!

 

As I warned a couple of weeks ago, December is a very bad time to play your Triple Captain chip.

Fixture congestion and miserable weather (and perhaps even the distraction of the looming holidays: footballers too need to plan for family gatherings, and get their Christmas shopping done!) tend to reduce performance levels and increase the risk of unexpected, upset results.

And sure enough, here we are at the start of the GW16 weekend, with players like Salah and Saka the most favoured captaincy picks for the week, playing at home and facing much weaker opposition..... and both players produce not very much, both sides are surprisingly held to a draw. I now rather fear that Palmer will have a rare stinker today, and Chelsea will somehow get turned over by Brentford....

In addition to all the factors I listed in that earlier post which can make results at this time of year more unpredictable, we also have to endure the impact of poor officiating (does this get worse in December too? perhaps referees are also preoccupied with thoughts of their Christmas shopping??). Bukayo Saka (my captain choice this week!) was not only denied a goal and an assist by some excellent work between the sticks from Pickford, but, near the end of the game, was robbed of the chance to convert a penalty by possibly the worst refereeing/VAR decision of the entire season so far. The only small consolation I can cling to is that this injustice would have pained me even more if I'd had my Triple Captain chip riding on him....

This is a Season of Craziness, my friends. Hang on to your bonus chips until the New Year....

Thank you, 'Darragh'!

 

At about 9am this morning, UK time,  the weekend's opening fixture - Everton v. Liverpool - was postponed due to extreme weather warnings issued about the imminent impact of 'Storm Darragh' on the west coast of England, Wales, and Scotland.

I couldn't think of a famous Darragh to help us celebrate this splendid news, and a Google search turned up only about half a dozen or so Gaelic footballers and rugby players with this forename.... and this 20th century American landscape artist, Darragh Park. [His painting above is called 'Untitled' - I may use it again at the end of the year, in a retrospective post on Manchester City's season.]

I find myself in buoyant spirits about this meteorological newsflash.... first, for the unworthy but delicious schadenfreude of being able to scoff at all the FPL managers who happen to be loaded up on Liverpool and/or Everton players (Pickford a semi-popular goalkeeper pick all season; McNeil still in a lot of squads, after a hot start to the year, despite a recent injury and lull in form; Mykolenko newly in demand again after a big haul against Wolves this midweek...). Their Gameweek is wrecked before it starts! In fact, if they rush to make a bunch of paid transfers to try to fix the holes, the rest of us will start with a forest of 'green arrows' indicating a rank rise at their expense - a nice psychological lift for those of us who only have Salah, even if the rest of the Gameweek takes a nosedive from there....

This, by the way, is the main reason why I always advise that people should resist doubling up on too many teams, and try to avoid trebling up on any...  It leaves you way too vulnerable to the occasional 'Act of God' disaster like this (or... just the whole team having a bad day at the office one week!).

Perhaps even more exhilarating, though, is the realisation that this means Mo Salah is going to get an additional Double Gameweek in a few months' time, to catch up this missed fixture. [Only two regular Double Gameweeks are expected this season, both relatively 'small', and right at the back end of the season. And, of course, we don't yet know which teams will be involved: it is quite possible that Super-Mo may not be playing in either of them.... and perhaps not any other of our most fancied Triple Captain picks either.]

Better yet, it looks as if the likeliest gaps in the fixture schedule are in Gameweeks 28 or 33 - when Liverpool are already due to face Southampton and Leicester. The prospect of Mo Salah facing TWO of the weakest teams in the League in quick succession is mouthwatering indeed; it looks very much like a prime opportunity to exploit the Triple Captain chip. [I haven't really looked into this myself yet, but I see the online prognosticators are now identifying GW25 in mid-February as perhaps the most likely - or most desirable, anyway, because earliest - opportunity to make up this fixture. That's possibly even better for a Salah double-fixture, as Liverpool are already facing Wolves at Anfield that week (with Wolves nearing the end of a long run of 'unwinnable' games, and likely to have morale at the bottom of the ocean).]

Of course, we must rein in our excitement. Those Gameweeks are both far off in March. Salah might have lost form or got injured by then (or perhaps even departed for Saudi in the winter transfer window.... heaven forbid!). And who knows, perhaps Leicester or Southampton might have got much better by then. (Well, Leicester might have...)

Still, it is something to look forward to, a little bright spark of HOPE to warm us on a dark, blustery winter's day.  At the very least, it allows us to enjoy a smug giggle back at all the people who giggled smugly at us when they got a decent haul from playing their Triple Captain on Haaland or Salah or Palmer early in the season.

Tempted AGAIN??

Just last week I warned that hazarding the PRECIOUS Triple Captain chip in a Gameweek straight after an international break was usually unwise, because of all the uncertainties of form and match outcome that follow from fatigue, availability problems, and lack of preparation after such a disruption of the usual club training schedule.

The same concerns apply even more strongly.... to the entire month of December.

The absurd fixture log-jam we land ourselves with over the holiday season - 7 Gameweeks in the next four weeks!! -  combined with the adverse impact of cold, wet weather (and perhaps even the shorter hours of daylight having a negative impact on some players' moods...?) means that:-

1)  Most players will get some 'rest rotation' at some point; but it's pretty much impossible to predict when. (Though we might imagine that older - and historically injury-prone - players like Chris Wood, Danny Welbeck, and Callum Wilson would be most likely to receive heavily rationed minutes.)  So, even if you can count on your favoured star performer - Salah, Palmer, Saka or whoever - starting every game, so long as they remain fit, you can't be at all sure who's going to be playing with them for each game, or how well their team is going to function around them.

2) All players, even the most superhumanly resilient of them, are going to suffer from some fatigue - mental, perhaps, as much as physical - during this onslaught of quickfire games; and it is very unlikely that anyone will maintain anything like their best form throughout the whole month.

3)   A higher rate of injuries is, alas, inevitable amidst this constant stress of over-exertion, reduced recovery time, and often bitterly cold playing conditions.

4)  Cold, wet, blustery weather also makes the game harder to play, and greatly increases the likelihood of mistakes.... which may lead to unexpected, against-the-run-of-play goals, and perhaps some topsy-turvy results.

5)  With the tight turnaround between so many of the games, and the more frequent changes in team selection, it's very difficult for managers to do adequate tactical preparation.

6)  And it's that time of year when things start to get really critical for the clubs struggling down at the bottom end of the table; and some of them may begin fighting that bit harder - and more effectively - to improve their position. Hence, 'upset results' could become a bit more common over the next few weeks than they have been so far.

All of this means that there is huge UNCERTAINTY about results over the coming month, even in games that look like they should be very one-sided match-ups. And moreover, it is very unlikely that any of our beloved star players will often be able to perform anywhere near their best, because of all these adverse circumstances around them. It is, I think, much better to wait until January or February to play the TC chip - no matter how inviting some of the December fixtures may appear.

[Of course, as soon as I've said this, Bukayo Saka goes and has a monster of a game against a predictably flakey West Ham! I can only say in my defence that this game was technically on the 30th November (although December had already started where I was watching the game from...). But the basic principle is still sound: results are much more unpredictable at this time of year. The early months of the New Year will offer bigger - and more reliable - opportunities to take advantage of your Triple Captain.]

TC temptation.....

 

A lot of Fantasy managers are contemplating punting their Triple Captain chip this week.

After all, Salah is playing bottom-of-the-table Southampton, who've conceded nearly 2 goals per game so far. While Palmer is facing Leicester, and Saka has Forest at home (much less of an apparent pushover than the two promoted clubs, but still probably a bit of a gulf in class below Arsenal at their best).  I think you also have to fancy a resurgent-looking Newcastle and the in-form Gordon or Isak (or Barnes, or perhaps even Joelinton) at home against West Ham on Monday night, who have looked pretty terrible defensively of late. And Mbeumo or Wissa might get some chances against still occasionally shaky-at-the-back Everton (although they might still be slightly doubtful for a start this week?).

Some people are getting very excited about the prospects of Fernandes (or Hojlund?) against Ipswich, but I don't think we should expect immediate miracles from Ruben Amorim, and Ipswich - who, for me, have always looked much the best of this year's promoted trio - showed last time against Spurs that it is a mistake to take them for granted. 

There's even a surge of optimism for Haaland again - although Spurs have usually been a bit of a bogey team for Pep, and I would expect Ange to have his boys fired up to give an emphatic response to their humiliating fiasco at home against Ipswich last time out. A more left-field captaincy pick, though, might be DeBruyne - who does  have a bit of a history of absolutely smashing it as soon as he returns from a long absence.

It might be a good week for defences too, as 5 or 6 of the fixtures (it really is impossible to guess which way to call the Ipswich v United game; my love of the underdog would like it to go to Ipswich, but I can see United possibly pulling out a big game from somewhere....) look quite unbalanced: Liverpool, Chelsea, and Newcastle in particular, but also quite possibly Arsenal, Villa, City, and Manchester United might keep clean sheets;; so, it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that a defender or a keeper from one of those clubs might become the 'Player of the Week'. It's certainly feeling like it could be a very high-scoring GameWeek.

If I were a betting man (I am, sometimes...), I'd probably go for Palmer.

But I don't fancy him - or anyone else - enough this week to risk the Triple Captain on them.... because we're following on from an international break, and those bring so much uncertainty in their wake.

We're unsure of selections, because so many players might be fatigued or carrying a knock or late returning to their club after playing for their national squad. Many others, of course, were flagged with injuries after the last EPL gameweek (most of these were probably just phantom injuries, cooked up by their clubs to get them out of international duty - but we just don't know for sure); we've mostly had no updates on any of them until the last day or two, and it's still unclear whether some of them are going to be able to start. Worst of all, the usual schedule of training and tactical preparation within the club has been disrupted, and coaches have generally had, at most, a couple of days to work with their players again to get them ready for this weekend's games. While for those who haven't played any football, the rest might have been physically and mentally refreshing, some inevitable ring-rustiness from having missed the regular preparation routine for nearly two weeks is likely to outweigh that. All of this means that form in the first game back after an international break can be wildly unpredictable; many of the big clubs, in particular, have a tendency to misfire rather.

If this week's set of fixtures occurred at almost any other point in the season, in the midst of a regular run of games, I would probably be all over Salah or Palmer or Saka (or DeBruyne) as a prime Triple Captain opportunity.

But as it is, I think I'll wait: they're all facing bottom-of-the-table clubs again in January and February.

Well, Salah and Saka did indeed both have very bright games, notching 13 points each - which is a score you should be very happy with for the Triple Captain chip (although the foolishly greedy are always hoping for 15, 18, 20....).  Maddison and Cunha produced the two massive performances of the week, though; and I don't think anyone was betting on them as TC prospects!!

The 'curse' of the international break hit everywhere else, with United being predictably mediocre and largely outplayeed by Ipswich in Amorim's coaching debut, City having another shocker against bogeymen Spurs, Mbeumo and Wissa being completely invisible in a sterile goalless draw against Everton, while the gameweek ended with Newcastle producing a bizarrely lifeless display against a suddenly less-terrible West Ham and somehow losing, despite having the vast majority of the possession and goal chances. Funny old game, and all that.

BONUS CHIPS - who needs them?

 

I dislike FPL's 'bonus chips' - for me, they are an unncessary gimmick, just a further randomising element in a game that is already plenty random enough.

And they are a relatively recent innovation, only being introduced into the game for the first time in the 2015-2016 season.

Even the best players won't manage a double-digit haul much more than once every three or four games on average across the season; and they'll probably 'blank' (i.e., produce nothing beyond basic appearance points), or only return a very low score, at least one game in every three. So, you won't get a really good haul from your regular captaincy pick more than one week in three (unless you're very, very lucky). And even when you do, it's unlikely to be your best haul of the week - because, if you have a good squad, there are usually at least 5 or 6 potential candidates for the captaincy (and very often one of your other squad players will surprise you with an outstanding week, while all the 'usual suspects' falter....). So, even getting the captaincy choice 'right' for an individual gameweek is largely a matter of luck, something that only comes good for you perhaps 20% to 30% of the time.

Now, there are certain fixtures where you might reasonably expect your star player to have a particularly high chance of a big score (and a particularly low chance of a poor score); but in practice, it doesn't often work out like that. I don't think the 'soft fixtures' actually produce significantly better outcomes most of the time. The odds in your favour are, hopefully, slightly enhanced if you choose your fixture to play the Triple Captain chip wisely, but you're still probably more likely to be disappointed than pleased with the outcome; and things can go very badly wrong. (Last year, I bet on Haaland against Bournemouth. The Viking was in smokin' form, and Bournemouth had started the season dreadfully, were deep in the relegation zone and conceding goals every week. This week, of course, was the week they suddenly began to turn things around. And our Erling apparently picked up an injury mid-way through the first half, and didn't reappear after the break - although it looked very much as if he might have been carrying some problem from the start, as he was completely off his game. The most in-form player in the league at the time faces one of the weakest defences.... and comes away with 1 point! Shit like this happens in our game all too often....)

And yet, at the other extreme, you might once-in-a-blue-moon (I mean, once every decade... or two....) happen to pick the week in which your favourite captaincy choice produces a monster haul for your TripleCap!! Even more galling, there are some people who seem to play the chip completely randomly on some not particularly fancied player... who produces a blinder out-of-the-blue - like Noni Madueke in Gameweek 2 of this season. Yep, it all too often happens that someone can take a wild punt on a frankly idiotic choice for the chip, and come away with 50, 60 or 70-odd points. There's little skill in it, little justice, just a huge amount of randomness.... and LUCK!

The Bench Boost chip isn't much better. You can identify gameweeks which seem auspicious to play it because of their heavy density of unbalanced fixtures, and perhaps even a good number of double-fixtures ('big' Double Gameweeks can indeed offer a significant lift to your Bench Boost return; but there aren't many of them to aim for - well, only ONE this year! - and it's a risk to wait until the very end of the season for this chance to play the chip); and you might even carefully 'set up' for them, with judicious use of transfers in preceding weeks - or perhaps the deployment of the Wildcard - to try to ensure that you have a stronger bench than usual, and a full bench. But that's the main problem with this chip: you really need to be absolutely sure that all 15 squad members are going to start in order to take advantage of it - and that hardly ever happens. It has been as rarely as 3 or 4  times in the entire season for me (and not on weekends with many 'good' fixtures!). Last year I was geared up to play my Bench Boost 3 or 4 times,.... and every time I found myself undone by one or two last-minute injuries, unable to go ahead with using the chip on a bunch of good fixtures because I suddenly had huge gaps on the bench.

Even on a Double Gameweek, it is quite possible for all of your bench players to disappoint in both games and leave you with a single-digit return for the chip. If you have to use it on a Single Gameweek, you can easily end up with next-to-nothing. And a haul of 15-20 points is really about the best you can reasonably hope for; most of the time, you'll probably come out with a bit less than that. But, again, some people can get absurdly lucky with the chip, racking up 30 or 40 points or more on it.

It's just a roll of the dice!  Why do we need this extra gambling element in the game??  We DON'T. 

But gambling, alas, is addictive. Too many FPL managers enjoy this additional thrill of uncertainty, and would be loath to give it up.

At least these chips are still tied to the regular points-scoring structure of the game, still rewarding shrewd choices of players for the current fixtures. This season the game's controllers are threatening us with a further novelty, an as yet undefined 'Mystery Chip'. There has been much speculation online about what this new chip will turn out to be. There are a number of possibilities that aren't too wacky, such as additional points for one week for defenders or for forwards (encouraging you to switch to a different formation for that week). And I'm quite fond of the Super-Captain chip they have in Fantasy World Cup, which retroactively assigns your double-points captain bonus to your highest-returning player in the Gameweek (a rare example of a de-randomising chip; I like that!). Even the 'Limitless' chip they usually have in the international competitions (a Free Hit with the additional benefit of an unlimited budget) is harmless fun.

But I have a foreboding that the FPL overlords may be plotting something far more extreme for this new chip - something far more randomising, and far more remote from the normal structure of the game. I do hope I'm wrong; but I get a sinking feeling in my stomach every time I think about it. They're supposed to be announcing it just before it becomes available for use in the second half of the season, so we'll find out in a month or so. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

It is obviously too much to hope for that FPL would scrap the Triple Captain and Bench Boost chips. But we really don't need ANY MORE 'bonus chips' like this added to the game.