Dilemmas of the Week - GW17 (25/26)

After the frenzy of quickfire fixtures around the turn of the month, followed for several teams by a highly consequential sixth tie in the group phase of the European competitions, being 'back to normal' for a little while now feels tremendously restful - really quite a little holiday. But of course, things start getting a bit crazy again at the end of next week. And even this week, we had 5 Premier League teams - Chelsea, Newcastle, Fulham, City and Brentford - involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals, which have taken a further little toll in injuries. And Palace and Arsenal's tie in that competition is still to come, next Tuesday. (If England's football authorities were to take one step to slightly ease the insane fixture congestion in the modern game, I really don't think anyone would mind seeing this competition being restricted - as its name already implies - to just those clubs competing under the umbrella of the English Football League, i.e., the top three tiers of the game outside of the Premier League [which is a separate and superior entity]. Many Premier League teams would obviously prefer to exit the event fairly quickly; and almost all of them regularly field a 'B side', at least until the latter stages, demonstrating that none of them really care all that much about it.)

Also, most clubs will be reeling from having lost a key player or two (or, in some cases, even more) to the African Cup of Nations, which kicks off this Sunday. That is a further element of unpredictability we have to grapple with this weekend!

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 17?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The inevitable surge in seasonal injuries has really begun to kick in big time, with Ben White, Daichi Kamada, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Joe Gomez, and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde all having to come off in last weekend's games with pulled thigh-muscles. No clear news on any of them yet, I don't think; all seem likely to be kept on the sidelines for at least 3 weeks or so, but it could be 2 months or more if any of them prove to be serious cases. We also saw Dominic Szoboszlai limping from a heavy knock to the ankle in the Brighton game. Dan Burn, who had to come off against Sunderland after taking a heavy blow to the ribs, is apparently going to be out of action for 4-6 weeks (so, presumably he must have broken some ribs?). Jeremy Doku, who was a surprise late omission from City's match against Palace after a training mishap, has now been confirmed as being likely to miss about 2 weeks with a leg injury. And Bournemouth's Tyler Adams came off in Monday night's thriller at Old Trafford; Iraola said he thought it was an MCL (Medial Collateral Ligament) problem rather than ACL, and not too serious - but it could still keep him out for a few weeks at least.

Danny Welbeck has been struggling with a sore back and hasn't trained much this week, but Hurzeler is modestly hopeful he might be OK this weekend.

Igor Thiago and Jordan Henderson are also both struggling with knocks which kept them out of the midweek League Cup defeat by City. Oscar Bobb came off very early in that match; apparently yet another hamstring injury.

Estevao also had to miss the midweek League Cup game with a minor muscle injury; he is expected to be able to play again after Christmas.

As well as being without Dan Burn, Newcastle had to rest Lewis Hall for the League Cup game against Fulham because of some ominous tightness in the thigh, and he's still considered doubtful for this weekend. And Tino Livramento had to come off in the Fulham game with a knee injury that looks as if it might be at least moderately serious. With Kieran Trippier and Emil Krafth already on the injury list, and not expected to be able to return for at least another couple of weeks, it appears that Newcastle no longer have any specialist full-backs available to them - unless they promote someone from the youth team. (Lewis Miley did a decent job filling in at right-back in the League Cup game, but I wouldn't expect that to be a regular assignment.) I wonder if Howe might switch to a back-three for a while, and try to deploy players like Gordon, Ramsey, Willock or Murphy, or maybe even Elanga, as wing-backs rather than wide attacking players. And at least Yoane Wissa is now available again as an additional attacking option, having played well and scored a fine poacher's goal in the League Cup victory.

Fulham's Sasa Lukic also had to be withdrawn at half-time in that League Cup game with tightness in the groin; though that might have been just 'precautionary'.

Forest midfielder Nicolas Dominguez had to miss last week's win over Spurs with an unspecified knee problem, and goalkeeper Matz Sels also had to give way to his understudy John Victor because of a sore groin muscle.

It's a lucky FPL manager who isn't going to be missing at least 1 of those. Actually, that would be extraordinarily lucky! You're pretty fortunate if you've only got 2 or 3 players here wiped out or extremely doubtful for this week. [This is why it's so dangerous to try to play a Bench Boost in the bleak midwinter.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Jadon Sancho is still a Manchester United player, so can't turn out for Villa against them on Sunday (though Emery hasn't been making much use of him anyway).

Lewis Dunk, Diego Gomez, Casemiro, and Yerson Mosquera are the latest players to earn a one-match ban for picking up a 5th booking of the season. Here the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is serving the second part of his three-match ban for a sending-off for 'serious foul play' near the end of the City game a fortnight ago.

Sunderland are likely to be particularly hard-hit by the AFCON departures, losing their midfield lynchpin Sadiki and their first-choice left-back Reinildo, as well as the more intermittently used Talbi, Traore, Masuaku, and Diarra (although at least they'll still have Simon Adingra still avaiable, as he was unexpectedly omitted from the Ivory Coast squad - because he's been getting so few minutes thus far at Sunderland). Manchester United have to do without their only regular goalscorer so far, Mbeumo, as well as wide attacker Amad and back-up defender Mazraoui, while West Ham are losing their preferred full-backs on both sides, Wan-Bissaka and Diouf,; Everton will surely suffer without the influential Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye, and already struggling Fulham could perhaps implode without their influential Nigerian trio of Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze.

Brentford lose Dango Ouattara and Frank Onyeka, Brighton their commanding midfield stopper Baleba, Burnley lose Tuanzebe, Foster, and Hannibal (though he's currently banned anyway),  Palace lose Ismaila Sarr, Liverpool lose Salah, City lose Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (although the latter hasn't been getting any game time anyway), Spurs lose Pape Sarr and Bissouma, while Forest must do without Sangaré (who was superb in the Spurs game last week) and back-up defender Boly.

The 'good news' is that few FPL managers owned any of these anyway, apart from Bryan Mbeumo. And the 'jolly super news' was that 3 of the next most popular African players in FPL so far this year, Antoine Semenyo and Mo Kudus (Ghana) and Yankuba Minteh (Gambia) missed out on qualifying for the tournament this year.

As I observed a few weeks ago, the main impact of AFCON on our FPL fortunes this time around is not going to be felt in the players we lose from our teams (few, if any) but in the effects it may have on the Premier League sides who lose key players; form is going to be even more uncertain, match results even more unpredictable for the next few weeks. At least most of these players should be back again in time for Gameweek 21, kicking off on the 7th January. But any who make it through to the knockout stages won't be available again GW22 or GW23 - perhaps even GW24 for the Finalists.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Fortunately, no. But - even with FPL's generous Early Christmas Present of extra Free Transfers last week! - I doubt if any of us enjoy the luxury of being able to drop someone this week just for showing dodgy form. It seems likely that every available transfer is going to be needed to address injury and suspension issues over the next few weeks.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, Phil Foden does appear to have become the season's 3rd 'essential' pick (after Haaland, and an Arsenal defender...) - even though it's almost certain that he won't produce half as many points over the next 5 or 6 gameweeks as he just has in that remarkable fortnight around the turn of the month! But damn, Rayan Cherki has been looking very, very good of late as well (if you fancy going against the tide...). Harry Wilson and Bruno Fernandes are also justifiably popular picks this week, after a storming run of form over the past 4 gameweeks (trouble is, really hot streaks like this rarely last more than 4 games...). Hugo Ekitike and Morgan Rogers are also being heavily transferred in; but, although they've been playing superbly, I doubt if there's reliable long-term FPL value in them: Villa have been massively over-performing, and are due a downward blip, while Liverpool are only just starting to sort themselves out - and may now be facing another step backwards, without Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Salah, or any recognised right-back [ah, I forgot Bradley's fit again; so, things aren't quite that bad...].  [Well, I was 'wrong' about Villa and Morgan Rogers; they keep grinding out the wins, even without playing that well - which is usually a sign of a potential champion! I'm still a bit wary about young Morgan for FPL, though; he's been in a super-hot little spell of form lately, but he's never in the past been a super-prolific points producer: only a few double-digit hauls per season, almost never gets back-to-back hauls of any sort at all. And I was right about Foden's and Wilson's and Fernandes's streaks coming to an end.]

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Just because you CAN, it doesn't mean you SHOULD

 

This applies particularly to transfer decisions in FPL: even if you feel there's a really pressing need to use a transfer to make a change right now, there's very likely to be an even more valuable use of it a little later on. Being able to use 2 or more transfers at once can be enormously powerful in expanding the scope of your possible changes and allowing major reallocations of budget.

But this doesn't apply only when using 1 or 2 transfers; it's just as true when making multiple changes at once. You need to be really, really sure that they are all immediately essential - because they're almost certainly not! The possibility of saving some of them for a further multiple change a little later on should not be overlooked.

We are seeing a particularly striking instance of this phenomenon just at the moment, because of the FPL Gnomes' over-generous - pointless - Early Christmas Gift of extra free transfers (supposedly to help tide us over AFCON: a very minor problem for which such additional help is completely unnecessary), so that we all now have a full complement of 5 saved transfers.

Many FPL managers have immediately blown the whole lot in one fell swoop. As I have commented recently on a few of the forums: Some of these extra transfers will almost certainly be more useful at some point in the future. Unlike the first Wildcard (and the extra Free Hit we've been given for the first time this year), this AFCON 'mini-Wildcard' has no time-limit, it can be rolled forward indefinitely... into the next half of the season. 

And keeping at least 1 or 2 of these transfers short-term, to cover a possible winter injury crisis or bad weather postponement, would be more valuable than an immediate splurge of impulse shopping. The thing that saves most people from over-indulging in chasing last week's points through silly 'sheep picks' is that they only have 1 or 2 transfers to use at a time. Doling out 5 at once was an especially inventive piece of cruelty from the FPL Gnomes, a damaging temptation that will just lead a lot of people into making rash and needless changes.

Using up 2 or 3, or maybe even 4 of these windfall transfers straight away would have been fine; but not keeping at least 1 or 2 of them in hand for a rainy day (or a snowy one, or a windy one...), literal or metaphorical, is likely to end in regrets.

And of course, the problem with choosing instant gratification over the delayed alternative is that we know rationally that the delayed gratification will be better for us,... but we can't resist the emotional satisfaction of indulging ourselves right now.

This is a hazard in FPL with playing the Bonus Chips as well: it is very easy to drop them on the first vaguely promising fixture that comes along. But the further into the season you get, the surer you can feel about your players' form and prospects (whether your preferred Triple Captain candidate, or your entire team/squad for the Bench Boost), and about the likely form of all the clubs and the likely outcome of their fixtures. And the nearer you get to the end of the window of availability of use for a chip, the more confident you can be that there are unlikely now to be many - or any - better options in which to play it in the future. Picking an optimum gameweek in which to use a Bonus Chip is very, very difficult; but it's almost never going to be in the opening month or two of the season.

Try to learn the value of waiting....

AFCON - iceberg, or irrelevance?

Every two years the African Cup of Nations tournament in December/January causes a certain amount of disruption for our EPL/FPL season, as a host of African players depart to play for their national teams for up to a month - at a particularly busy time of year in the domestic football calendar. But this year, it's probably not going to have too much of an impact - well, for some Premier League clubs, maybe; but not for FPL managers.

Every four years, we get AFCON coinciding with the Asian Cup; so, we have then sometimes faced the horror of suddenly being without Salah and Son and Mané and Mitoma, etc. The loss of leading players from two continents could be a serious inconvenience. But you just had to remember this speed-bump was coming, and prepare for it - by limiting the number of African (and Asian) players you had in your squad, and by transferring them out before the start of the tournament(s). Really, no big deal - so long as you were aware that the tournaments were happening! Certainly, AFCON on its own, without a simultaneous Asian Cup, was never much to worry about. And it's become even easier to deal with following last year's rule-change allowing us to save up to 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. (So, FPL's further rule-change this year to gift us extra Free Transfers for AFCON in Gameweek 16 is utterly superfluous - an overkind gesture to help out managers who don't know what's going on with the international schedule.)

Moreover, this year, with Mo Salah making no impression at a suddenly struggling Liverpool, Omar Marmoush and Rayan Ait-Nouri no longer getting many minutes at City, and Ola Aina and Yoane Wissa out injured,... there really aren't many popular FPL picks affected this year.

United's Bryan Mbeumo is really the only high-owned FPL asset (currently around 36%) who's going to be departing next week.

Brighton and Everton might struggle a bit without Carlos Baleba and Idriss Gana Gueye to anchor their midfields, but no-one owns players like this in FPL.

Everton will also be without their lively forward Iliman Ndiaye, Brentford without the right side of their attacking trident, Dango Ouattara, and Manchester United are losing Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui (although the latter hasn't been getting many minutes so far this season, and the former hasn't been an invariable starter under Ruben Amorim's ADHD approach to selection).

Fulham may be hard hit by the absence of defensive stalwart Calvin Bassey, veteran creative midfielder Alex Iwobi, and promising new winger Samuel Chukwueze, all in the Nigeria squad (although this should mean more minutes for players like Josh King and Emile Smith Rowe: the interesting impacts for FPL are mainly felt not in the players who disappear, but in the knock-on effects for those still here!).

West Ham will be without both of their currently favoured starting full-backs, El Hadji Diouf and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. And Sunderland might really struggle when they lose full-back Reinildo, central midfielders Noah Sadiki and Chemsdine Talbi, and wingers Simon Adingra and Bertrand Traore (not all of them have been regular starters; but Sadiki is likely to be a big miss for them). Wolves will lose centre-back Emmanuel Agbadou and attacking midfielder Marshall Munetsi. And Palace will be losing one of their top goalscorers, Ismaila Sarr.

But really - almost no-one in FPL is going to own more than Mbeumo + at most 1 or 2 of the others. AFCON is not an issue in FPL this year. (Except insofar as it's likely to have some major impacts on team form and selections, particularly at Sunderland, Fulham, and West Ham, and perhaps Manchester United.)

The extra 'good news' this year is that Ghana somehow failed to qualify for the tournament this time, so Antoine Semenyo (currently the most popular African player in FPL with over 52% ownership) and Mo Kudus (still the third most popular African player, with 16.5% ownership) will not be affected.

Here's a complete list of players involved in AFCON, and the tournament schedule, from AllAboutFPL.

REMEMBER, also, that the gift of extra transfers in Gameweek 16 is not a fixed number, but a top-up to a limit of FIVE. So, to take maximum advantage of that, we need to use up all our existing transfers by Gameweek 15 - this weekend!

As I noted the oher week, if you have multiple transfers available to use up in GW15, that could in effect be a 'mini Free Hit', as you'll have the opportunity to undo those changes straight away in the following gameweek, should you want to. And that gift of extra Free Transfers effectively makes GW16 - or one of the gameweeks immediately following - a 'mini Wildcard' opportunity.

A 'mini Free Hit' as well as a 'mini Wildcard'??

 

FPL's unnecessarily generous gift of extra Free Transfers in Gameweek 16 (another pointless innovation this year, supposedly meant to ease the possible impact of departures for the African Cup of Nations - although that has never been a big issue in FPL; and this year, it's a complete non-event, as no-one with any sense currently has any African players other than Bryan Mbeumo) is effectively a mini-Wildcard, enabling us to undertake a modest squad rebuild in mid-December.

However, it must be noted that this is not a gift of a fixed number of transfers (5), but only a top-up - to a maximum number of 5 Free Transfers. Hence, in order to take full advantage of it, you have to use up any existing Free Transfers you have in Gameweek 15 (e.g., if you still have 2 saved transfers going into GW16, you only get 3 new ones, to bring you up to the total of 5 all told).

I quite like the idea of trying to save up some transfers over the next few gameweeks (though that might not be possible, as injuries tend to come thick and fast at this time of year!), so that you can play 2 or 3 together in Gameweek 15 - perhaps even the full quota of 5 FTs in one fell swoop, if you're already carrying forward some saved ones. 

Since you'll have the opportunity for a similar big shake-up in the very next gameweek, with the AFCON Christmas present, this could be a one-week-only revision of your team - in effect, an extra Free Hit! 

But as this would only be a 'virtual' Free Hit, not the actual chip, you would be able to to play another chip that week. And as I said the other week, Gameweek 15 is a moderately promising prospect for a Bench Boost play, with a number of unbalanced fixtures you might want to exploit. (Although it's a bit of a risky bet for that chip, as there may be a high risk of fatigue, injury absences, or sudden rest rotations in what is the third gameweek scheduled within 7 days.)  Even for just the starting eleven, though, it's an unusual group of fixtures where you could benefit from putting out a one-off custom team. And 'optimizing' for this gameweek opportunity with saved transfers would enable you to hang on to your actual Free Hit (well, assuming you've still got it...) as insurance against a possible game-postponement emergency later in the month.  Something to think about.