Luck-o-Meter (38)

Fatigue - and perhaps a bit of nerves for some - was becoming very evident in a mostly rather drab final set of matches. Goals were in short supply (apart from Brighton's stuffing of Spurs, the rest of the matches didn't produce 20 goals between them), and for a remarkable 5th week running the FPL global points average was only in the 40s.

Fulham v Manchester City was one of the most entertaining games of a mostly tense and grim final Sunday, with end-to-end play and both sides enjoying some good chances. For most of the match, only Gundogan's improbable improvisation mid-way through the first half separated the teams, until the German also won a very soft penalty late in the game to clinch the win. Although, shortly after Haaland converted that spot-kick, Ruben Dias somehow got away with a very obvious handball in the penalty area (yes, the ball was fired at him from quite close range, but he had chance enough to see it and react; his arm was way higher than it needed to be, even attempting a jumping block, and he appeared to deliberately move it down towards the ball, striking it with his elbow); that was one where VAR might usefully have recommended a second look, just to be sure (not necessarily prejudicing the referee into reversing his original call, just emphasising that it's an arguable decision and deserves a good long think). And then, in the final seconds, Raul Jimenez put a lovely bicycle-kick only just wide of the left-hand post... As so often this season, Fulham looked like they deserved more from the game,... and City weren't quite worth the win.

Manchester United produced a rare half-decent performance at the end of the season to claim a 'surprise' win against Champions League-chasing Villa. The visitors will claim that the sending-off of Emi Martinez was the turning-point, but they were very flat all game, and United were all over them from the kick-off; Dalot had already thundered a shot against a post long before Villa were reduced to 10 men. There was nothing controversial about the dismissal of the keeper: a deliberate body-check on a striker trying to go round him 8 yards outside the box, with no other defenders anywhere near, is inevitably a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' (there might be something in the argument that you might not expect Hojlund to score even with an open goal, but that rationale is not admissible to the referee; it's a stronger case for Martinez not needing to have made the foul!). The more decisive moment came in the second half, when Morgan Rogers cleverly nicked the ball off United keeper Bayindir and deftly spun to chip it into the empty net; the referee's fault here was not wrongly adjudging Rogers to have kicked the ball out of the keeper's hands - which was difficult/impossible to judge with the naked eye (and perhaps still open to some argument even with VAR playbacks) - but blowing his whistle for that so hastily (before the ball hit the net), which debarred VAR from intervening to consider whether the goal should rightly be allowed. While this was a major refereeing blunder (amazingly, the only really bad one of the day), it didn't feel to the neutral observer like it really turned the course of the match: United were much the better team throughout, and hit the post twice more, before Eriksen's penalty sealed the comfortable win for them (and there was absolutely no doubt about that award at all, although a disgruntled Emery clapped the decision sarcastically).

Newcastle v Everton was also quite entertaining for the neutral, though no doubt agony for the home fans. The lively visitors took the lead through the outstanding Carlos Alcaraz, and only a towering display from Nick Pope prevented them from pulling out a two or three-goal advantage. Late in the game, Newcastle piled on pressure, searching for the win they thought they might need to secure a Champions League place - and three of their best efforts came from defender Fabian Schar,... which, if any of them had gone in, would have been a very nice lift for anyone that owned him (I'm rather surprised that only 5.5% do!).

Playing Pedro Neto as a makeshift centre-forward didn't really work for Chelsea, and despite being allowed plenty of possession by home side Forest, they never created much threat - until defender Colwill was able to steal in at the far post for a tap-in (from what looked more like a misshit shot than a calculated square ball from Neto). Chris Wood, Mr One-Chance-One-Goal for most of the season, here had only two difficult opportunities, and put them both over the top. Thus, Chelsea scraped home to a Champions League spot that the second half of their season had emphatically not deserved, while Forest, who had been challenging for second place mid-season, almost fell out of the European places altogether, and have to content themselves with a spot in the Europa Conference League (at least that should be a winnable competition for them; though it is a monstrous injustice that awful Spurs will be playing in the Champions League while they will not).

Liverpool were again a bit flat, but were resilient enough to power through for a draw, despite having gone down to 10 men. (Particularly unfortunate for Gravenberch to be sent off in the final game, after such an outstanding season. Although there's no question that it was a bad foul, it wasn't 'dangerous play', and you feel that a trip on the half-way line shouldn't really be a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' either. I think the guidelines on that need to be modified, perhaps with a specific distance from goal - 35 yards, maybe? - introduced as one of the necessary criteria.)  Salah had a penalty shout against Lacroix for handball, but the defender's arm was by the side of his body, so there was nothing in that. Owners of Conor Bradley or Trent Alexander-Arnold will feel aggrieved that Arne Slot split the 90 minutes evenly between them - although a token outing for Trent on his final day at Anfield was always to be expected.

Spurs, despite taking a first-half lead through a Solanke penalty, allowed themselves to be completely dominated by Brighton in the second half - although it is a pretty fair bet that just about nobody in FPL owned any of their goalscorers!

Brentford couldn't add to Mbeumo's first-half goal, despite many good chances. But home side Wolves were also often dangerous: full-backs Semedo and Ait-Nouri brought smart stops out of Flekken with powerful drives either side of half-time - but the Brentford keeper could do nothing about Marshall Munetsi's 20-yard screamer. Woe for the nearly 7% of FPL managers who own Yoane Wissa (really surprised it isn't more!!); he was continuously lively, but couldn't quite find his way past Jose Sa.

Bournemouth achieved a comfortable though hardly impressive win against Leicester. Some Dean Huijsen owners are no doubt miffed that the youngster was here given only a token 12 minutes or so off the bench - though such things must be expected at this time of year, especially when a player has confirmed a move to a new club (he's going to be joining Trent at Real Madrid next season). A very pleasant surprise for some FPL managers was Antoine Semenyo suddenly popping up for 2 goals - as many as he'd produced in his previous 14 games, and his only brace of the season.

More unexpected sentiment may have irked a few FPL managers when Graham Potter reinstated Fabianski in goal for a farewell match (over 4% own Areola) - he made one outstanding save from Nathan Broadhead early on. Ipswich might feel they were a little unlucky, as they came within inches of a second equaliser from Jack Clark, and a couple of wonder-strikes from Bowen and Kudus rather flattered a lacklustre West Ham.

A spirited last-day performance by relegated Southampton almost embarrassed Arsenal: they equalised with a header from a corner, and were hanging on impressively for that result, until Odegaard's wonder-goal in the dying minutes took it away from them. Last-day lineup changes, when there's nothing much to play for, must generally be expected, but Arteta doesn't usually seem the type in indulge in them - so, it was an unwelcome surprise for many in FPL-land that he left Saka and Odegaard on the bench, instead starting Sterling and Nwaneri... and giving the departing Kieran Tierney a spot in central defence (though he somehow popped up at the near-post in the opposition six-yard box to convert Ben White's low cross - yet another most unexpected goalscorer!!).

At least Salah and Mbeumo produced something this week, but almost none of the other most fancied players did; and Haaland's penalty was the only contribution from any of the most popular 'forwards'. It was a very low-scoring weekend (the global average was probably only elevated into the mid-40s by all the people who somehow still had a bonus chip to play this week; but for that, it might only have been around 40, or perhaps even a bit under). and almost all the goals came from very unexpected sources. The final 'Team of the Week' is utterly silly, with Jarrod Bowen being just about the only player in it that anybody owns in FPL.

However, that's barely enough to make it a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. Incompetent refereeing, so often this season the largest element of 'luck' in a gameweek, was pleasantly absent this week - with really only a couple of poor decisions.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott, The Protest.  Even if you have played the new 'Assistant Manager' chip this time, please do criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

I worry that the fight on this is only just now really beginning: we'll have to push hard for the next few weeks to try to ensure that this silly, game-distorting innovation does not become a permanent feature of FPL from next season.

#DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (37)

 

The rate of injuries has slowed somewhat in recent weeks, but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and a preoccupation, for some, with the final rounds of the European competitions, has meant that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual - especially in this penultimate gameweek, when the unfortunate circumstance of the FA Cup Final and the Europa League Final clashing with the Premier League schedule this year means that we have a mini fixture logjam around this weekend; two fixtures have been moved forward to Friday night, and two moved back to Tuesday night, spreading this batch of games out over 5 days....

Spurs and Manchester United weren't nearly as bad as expected on Friday night, and frustrated their hosts for long periods. United actually put out a full-strength team, to try to get themselves in a competitive mindset for the upcoming Europa League Final. They made some good chances, but their finishing was poor; although they were unlucky that a Maguire header that appeared to have given them the lead was ruled out for the narrowest of offsides (I really don't like to see these decisions given for a matter of centimetres - particularly when it's the upper arm!); and late in the game Amad's crisp near-post shot demanded a sharp save of Sanchez. Reece James grazed the post with a long-range effort, and Madueke and Enzo Fernandez squandered decent chances, but Chelsea were making heavy weather of it until Cucurella's header gave them a late breakthrough. At least VAR was doing its job properly for once, directing referee Craig Pawson to have another look after he'd adjudged Andre Onana to have brought down Tyrick George in the box: TV camera angles clearly showed that the keeper had fairly got a hand to the ball, and hadn't touched the forward (it was a straight-up dive, for which George should have been booked - but wasn't).

Villa were similarly unconvincing against Spurs; they had far more of the ball, but weren't doing much with it, and Spurs created some of the better chances (two spurned by a slightly rusty-looking Son); the best, an early break down the left from Odobert, squaring neatly to Tel, whose cheeky back-heel angled across the goal forced Martinez into a fine reaction save with his legs. Kinsky ultimately looked Spurs's best player, though, being credited with 5 saves in  the match, including two crucial fingertips to deny Rogers and Watkins; and Watkins might perhaps have had a penalty for the challenge on him by Ben Davies as he got that shot off - but VAR saw nothing in it. Villa eventually won comfortably, but not emphatically, with their goals coming from unexpected sources: an instinctive prod home from the edge of the six-yard box, a fine poacher's goal for centreback Ezri Konsa, and then a hopeful shot from just inside the penalty area from central defensive midfielder Kamara.

Iliman Ndiaye, who's threatened to become a major goal-threat all season but rarely fulfilled that promise, came up with two slick finishes to secure an easy win for Everton in their farewell game at the iconic Goodison Park. Southampton were dogged rather than impressive in their resistance, the defensive cohesion they'd somehow attained against City last week largely evaporating again.

West Ham v Forest proved to be the brightest game of the weekend, with both keepers needing to be at their sharpest to keep the scoreline down - Sels having to make a superb stop from an unmarked Soucek header in the opening minute. It was unfortunate for Areola that, after making some great early stops. he gave away the lead with a careless pass to the predatory Gibbs-White (yet another victim of the playing-out-from-the-back malaise). Forest increased their advantage with a somewhat fortuitous 'header' from Milenkovic helping in Elanga's free-kick (it came off the back of his neck, and he didn't appear to know much about it!). But we then suffered the farce of a 5-minute VAR delay (apparently the new offside-decision technology was malfunctioning, but that's really no excuse; we have to put a time-limit on this process) to adjudicate a possible offside by an obviously non-involved player. The irrepressible Jarrod Bowen's superb volley got West Ham back in the game with 5 minutes left. Or what should have been 5 minutes left, but thanks to the VAR cock-ups and various other delays, we ended up with a staggering amount of added-on time: West Ham won a corner in the 113th minute, and the Forest defence, perhaps distracted by the arrival of Areola in their box, allowed Fullkrug to get on the end of it with a powerful header... which Sels had to desperately parry away to cling on to the 3 points - and the mathematical chance of still qualifying for the Champions League. Sels, weirdly, was only credited with 4 saves in the match; I think I counted at least 6 in the highlights, and a number of them were so crucial - especially the ones in the opening and closing minutes! - that he should have been up near the top of the bonus points as well,... instead of nowhere to be seen??!!  (BPS is broken.)

Jamie Vardy - inevitably - found a 200th competitive goal for Leicester, in his emotional farewell at his home stadium; although it had started to look as if it might not be his day, after two promising early chances had just got away from him; but then a surging run through the middle by full-back James Justin slipped him in behind for one of his classically casual finishes. Leif Davis, back from suspension, was unlucky not to get on the scoresheet for the visitors - thundering a left-foot shot against the post early on, and then having an excellent late volley ruled out by VAR (one of those offsides that's far too close to call with the naked eye.... and thus, for me, shouldn't be called at all).

More FPL woe at Brentford, where 47%-owned Bryan Mbeumo should have come away with at least 15 points for the game, but ended up with just 5, thanks to an uncharacteristic penalty miss (Leno pulled off a fine stop, but Mbeumo had telegraphed where he was going to put it, and didn't hit it that hard: a very straight run-up like that is always a bad sign...). Overall, though, justice was probably served there, since Andersen's fleeting touch on the inside of Schade's elbow was surely not strong enough to substantially impede him, and the striker's subsequent going-to-ground was a blatant dive (yet again, extremely unsatisfying that VAR isn't willing to intervene very often to question the on-pitch official's call on things like this). Fulham then somehow nicked the win, with a 25-yard banger from Harry Wilson. Flekken again didn't exactly cover himself in glory here: he probably could have done more with all three Fulham goals, especially the first one - Raul's header was low and well-directed, but not powerful, yet somehow slipped under the keeper's dive. Also, very odd that Wissa was credited with Brentford's second goal, since the ball was surely already over the line from Norgaard's shot (the credit for that could yet be reassigned before the end of the gameweek, I suppose; if it was Wissa's, it can't have been by more than an inch or so!). Brentford, remarkably, had more than 3x as many xG as Fulham, yet still lost - largely thanks to a 'Man of the Match' performance from Bernd Leno in the Fulham goal,.... again, strangely undercounted by the BPS, which barely acknowledged his presence on the field: bizarre, and very, very wrong.

Arsenal prevailed narrowly in a close-fought match against Newcastle. The visitors failed to make The Gunners pay for a sluggish start to the game, but kept their much livelier second-half performance well-contained - apart from Rice smashing home another banger from the edge of the box. 'Man of the Match', though, was David Raya, with a string of superb saves. The big upset for FPL managers (56.5% of them, anyway!) was the last-minute omission of Alexander Isak with a groin problem. And the second biggest upset might be the half-time withdrawal of William Saliba (the second most popular defender in the game, with 30.5% ownership), apparently with a hamstring strain - that will probably keep him out of the closing weekend. Raya, officially credited with 5 saves, just scraped into the last bonus point slot, but surely deserved at least 2 extra points for his heroic performance. The BPS is very down on keepers lately.

An away trip to the south coast on a Monday night can always bring out the worst in a team, but giving the night off to two of your most crucial players of the campaign, Van Dijk and Diaz, pretty much ensures trouble, and Liverpool got plenty of that, being put under constant pressure by a lively Brighton, twice losing a lead, and then conceding a late winner five minutes from the end. Lots of other FPL frustration here, in addition to the starting selections (which we must accept are going to get a bit wayward at this time of year): a fabulous Danny Welbeck being kept off the scoresheet by three massive saves from Alisson, Szoboszlai restoring the lead on the stroke of half-time with a pinger from the edge of the box.... which might well have been a misshit cross, and mighty Mo Salah missing a sitter (Gakpo squared the ball to him at pace, and he tried to hit it first time with the inside of his left foot as it went across him; but with half the goal to aim at, you'd usually expect him to bury the chance... rather than steering it just wide!). Brighton also had a penalty shout late in the second half when the always dangerous Gruda went down under a challenge from Tsimikas; the contact was light, and the Greek full-back may just about have got a toe on the ball, but he was trying to reach it from behind the attacking player, which is asking for trouble; probably the right call from VAR, but one that could have gone either way. Hinshelwood's late winner was reinstated by VAR, after the linesman had mystifyingly ruled it offside at first - it was nowhere near! (A rare 'success' for the new 'semi-automated' technology; mostly, so far, it's just been ruling out good goals on insanely thin - and unconvincing - margins.)

After Saturday's heroics, it was inevitable that Palace would rest some players for Tuesday night's game against Wolves: Wharton and Guehi were ruled out by injuries picked up in the Cup Final, while Eze, Mateta, Mitchell, and Kamada were dropped to the bench. Nevertheless, they still managed to win fairly comfortably against a very out-of-sorts Wolves - whose magnificent form of the last three months has suddenly evaporated. Keeper Jose Sa was mysteriously omitted from the squad, and his understudy Dan Bentley didn't have a great game. And star Matheus Cunha, nearly 15%-owned in FPL, was left on the bench - amid mounting rumours that he's signed a deal to move to Manchester United over the summer (so, that's his career over, then....); he got on for a token 20-odd minutes at the end, but wasn't able to make much impact. The remarkable Ebere Eze, though, picked up yet another goal in a very brief run-out at the end; his owners - also around 15% - are no doubt a bit disappointed with just a 6-point haul from hum,.... but it's 6 points more than they had any right to expect! This game also saw goals from defenders Agbadou and Chilwell; and a brace from rarely-starts Nketiah.

Manchester City have the squad depth to be able to make multiple changes to their lineup without significantly weakening it - but rotations were not as many as might have been expected; and Kevin De Bruyne's 14% ownership will have been relieved that he was able to start again just three days after the Cup Final, and last a bit beyond the hour-mark - although he failed to register any FPL contribution, and actually missed a sitter, lashing a shot against the cross-bar when presented with an open goal by Marmoush (it did bobble a bit just as he hit it...). Marmoush had opened the scoring with a 30-yard screamer that might well be a 'Goal of the Season' contender - yet that somehow wasn't quite enough to secure him the maximum bonus points. Evanilson hit a post shortly afterwards, and the game might have developed very differently if he'd been able to level the score then. And there were two sendings-off in the game: Kovacic for pulling back Evanilson when clean-through just beyond the half-way line - a fairly clearcut 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence; and shortly afterwards, Lewis Cook was dismissed for a heavy challenge on Nico Gonzalez (not clear from the highlights I've seen that the tackle was bad enough for a straight red; more a clumsy shin-on-shin contact than a reckless driving-through-with-the-studs one).

The fixture rescheduling caused by the FA Cup Final and the upcoming Europa League Final added to uncertainties about selections and performance this week, exacerbating the problems of end-of-season form being generally erratic anyway. And so we ended up with a particularly weird 'Team of the Week': Ezri Konsa was the highest-scoring player, and the lineup also included James Justin, Declan Rice, Bernardo Silva, Harvey Elliott, Iliman Ndiaye, and Eddie Nketiah! But absolutely none of the most popular FPL picks.... And hence a wretchedly low 'global average' score of just 39 points.

Thus, it's looking a 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'; the refereeing mostly not too bad this time (apart from that very soft penalty award to Brentford), but VAR being painfully slow, and a few goals disallowed for paper-thin supposed 'offsides'. However, injuries, last-minute omissions and 'rest rotations' for some key players have contributed quite a bit to the FPL 'luck' factor this week, as have oustanding individual player performances - with a few banging goals, and even more extraordinary saves,... and a lot of goals from unexpected quarters! Moreover, the bonus point allocations have been really, really dodgy this week.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; and indeed, if you haven't, it might not be available to activate any more (the rules never addressed this point). I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip.

And even if you have played the new chip this time, please do criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

I worry that the fight on this is only just now really beginning: we'll have to push hard for the next few weeks to try to ensure that this silly, game-distorting innovation does not become a permanent feature of FPL from next season.

#DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (36)

 

The rate of injuries has slowed somewhat in recent weeks, but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and a preoccupation, for some, with the final rounds of the European competitions, has meant that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual. 

And Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea, and Arsenal are likely to be a bit tired - mentally as much as physically - by their European exertions this midweek. Eccentric coaching decisions and incompetent refereeing may add even more to these uncertainties.... Will they this week? Let's see.

And, oh dear, we are in the dog days of the season, aren't we? Mental and physical fatigue is taking its toll, and we're likely to see more and more woefully dull games. Saturday brought a whole clutch of embarrassing snoozefests.

Everton started poorly at Fulham, and were lucky that the home side failed to capitalise on the period of dominance they enjoyed following Raul's early breakthrough. A deflected Mykolenko shot gave Everton a toe-hold in the game on the stroke of half-time, and they improved strongly through the second half. The main talking point, though, in a very mid-table kind of game, was Darren England's near-unique sticking by his original call after a visit to the VAR monitor; it is very gratifying to see a ref not being prejudiced into reversing his initial decision by a VAR intervention (and here, it felt like the right call: Traore fired the ball at Mykolenko from very close range, and he was clearly trying to pull his arm out of the way of the ball, not reaching towards it).

Usually prolific Brentford only managed a solitary goal against dogged Ipswich? More FPL woe! And it fell to their overlooked third striker, Kevin Schade, rather than the more fancied Wissa and Mbeumo? Double woe!! And Brentford really should have got a penalty on a previous attempt to take that corner, when Greaves wrestled Van den Berg to the ground, but VAR didn't see enough to intervene. So, the goal should by rights have been penalty-taker Mbeumo's.... Thrice and four times woe!!! They really should have had two more penalties, either side of half-time, when Schade was clearly held when receiving Mbeumo's incisive pass, and then when Collins was rugby-tackled to the ground at a corner - VAR adopting a far too lenient attitude to 'holding' in the box, which led to increasingly extravagant wrestling from both sides at set pieces. Ipswich very nearly nicked a result, with three good chances falling to them in a flurry of late pressure.

Southampton produced a tediously unadventurous but impressively dogged display to frustrate an uninspired Manchester City. It would be tempting to say that Haaland was ring-rusty after nearly two months out of the game, but in fact he looked pretty sharp (winning a lot of high balls beyond the far post and heading them back into the six-yard box... where no-one was ever following up); it was more a case of the rest of the team having apparently forgotten how to play with him. Pep's selections were a bit of a head-scratcher as well; City looked far more dangerous once they brought on the likes of Doku, O'Reilly, Savinho, and Marmoush (who crashed a thumping shot on to the crossbar within minutes of coming on at the very end of the game), and you suspect they could have broken Southampton down if they'd been on from the start. The home side were maybe a little fortunate to get away with a couple of shoves in the penalty area, but in both cases the City players didn't help their appeal by going down so heavily under fairly trivial contact. The last quarter of an hour (half of that, amazingly, added on) actually became quite tense and exciting, as every football fan in the world other than City supporters was praying for the minnows to hang on to their hard-earned draw. (And it's hard not to indulge in a little schadenfreude at all the naive FPL managers who brought in Haaland and/or DeBruyne this week - often at the expense of far more reliable producers like Salah and Isak! It is dangerous to chase week-by-week points from a 'soft fixture'!)

Wolves were yet another team who were strangely flat this Saturday. On recent form, you would have fancied them to spank Brighton quite comfortably - but they rarely got in the game (a solitary low shot from the edge of the box from Cunha being well turned away by Verbruggen early in the second half). A particularly rough day for fans of the recently popular Matheus Cunha (over 15% ownership in FPL), who conceded a penalty (WHY was he playing in the back line???), got booked for it (and maybe was fortunate not to get a red card: if it was a deliberate foul [though I think you could take the view that it was just a clumsy late swish at the ball rather than an attempted trip; and he barely made contact with his toe on the side of the attacker's shin], it was surely also a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity'?), and was then subbed off just shy of the hour - for a nul-pointer. Cruel, cruel game!

Bournemouth were perhaps a little unlucky not to get at least a point out of their game, but their finishing just wasn't good enough: Semenyo drilled a shot just wide of the post, and right at the death, substitute Jebbison somehow managed to head over the bar from a yard or so out. Early in the game, Asensio had hit a firm shot against the foot of the post. That was about it - Watkins's solitary goal came 'out of nothing'; there was no sustained pressure from either side. Tyrone Mings was lucky to escape a red card for breaking Alex Scott's jaw; the collision did look 'accidental', but when you catch a guy in the face with your elbow, at speed, you can expect to be penalised most of the time.

Chelsea, too, were a shadow of the side that embarrassed Liverpool last week - perhaps somewhat flummoxed by Howe's crafty decision to line up with a back-three. Newcastle, however, were lacking a cutting-edge themselves, and failed to capitalise on Tonali's early breakthrough goal - even after Chelsea had been reduced to 10 men. Indeed, Chelsea grew into the game through the second half, and were piling on some worrying pressure during the last 20 minutes - until Bruno G pinged in a dipper from just outside the box with a few minutes left. There can't be any dispute about Jackson's sending-off: he clearly had a look at where Botman was, and then charged into him, leading with his elbow. It was such an ugly foul, so obviously committed with intent, that I wouldn't be at all surprised if the FA add another game or two to his mandatory three-match suspension, for exceptionally dangerous play. The only surprise here was that referee John Brooks initially gave the foul only a yellow card; and that it then took such an inordinately long time for VAR to recommend a second look,.... and then that the second look also seemed to take him forever. It was such an obvious and clearcut red card - what on earth was the problem?? (Some of the offside checks have been taking well over a minute lately too - even when there's no close call to be determined. Something amiss with the technology, it would seem.) Later on, VAR declined to intervene when James shoved Gordon to the ground in the box; Gordon was perhaps suffering for having got himself a reputation as someone who goes looking for fouls in the box a bit too obviously, but here James clearly shoulder-charged him in the back - and it was definitely at least worth a second look.

A lot of surprises at the City Ground: a rare-ish goal - a very, very rare headed goal! - from Morgan Gibbs-White (the blocking defender standing nearly 15 yards back from Elanga's touchline free-kick was a big help with that - but that appeared to be his decision, rather than a referee's instruction); Chris Wood, somewhat out of form over the past couple of months, suddenly coming up with a superb diving header; a surprisingly tough performance from relegated Leicester, but still no 200th goal for Jamie Vardy; and then a late equaliser from Buonanotte, to devastate Forest's Champions League hopes.

West Ham finally seemed to be clicking under Graham Potter at Old Trafford, playing with passion and cohesion to end a long winless drought. But it was only against United, who seem to be getting progressively more dire with each passing week. Ruben Amorim's relentless negativity in post-match interviews is now extending to admitting that United don't deserve to be in next season's Champions League if they play like this - which, while obviously true, isn't the sort of thing that the fans like to hear, or that serves any useful purpose. His gloom now even extends to his own prospects in the job, acknowledging that maybe someone should replace him if he can't quickly re-instil a winning mentality in this shambolic team - not clear if he's asking to be sacked, or acknowledging that he's under the threat of it, but again.... not the sort of thing it's encouraging for players or fans to hear at this point.

Rotations ahead of looming Cup Finals for Spurs and Palace were perhaps not as bad as might have been feared: Glasner gave recently-back-from-injury Adam Wharton the day off, but otherwise went with his best eleven, including Eze. Postecoglou put in back-up keeper Kinsky (though that might possibly be a permanent, form-related change?), though he yanked Betancur at half-time, and Porro just minutes shy of the hour - sore vexation for any FPL managers foolhardy enough to still hold any Spurs players! Sarr's tap-in of a great Munoz square-ball across the six-yard box to give Palace an apparent early lead was laboriously ruled out by VAR for a highly questionable offside: ultimately the computer graphic picture showed Mateta ostensibly offside at the start of the move, but.... only by a matter of inches/centimetres, which - I think - is always too close for any technology to convincingly adjudicate (and it was his upper arm only, an area which gets a very subjective and inconsistent interpretation in handball decisions!), and he was standing in his own half at the time, so his upper-arm being in the opponent's half could only be a presumed 'offside' if all the opposing outfield players were in the Palace half.... which I'm not at all convinced of, because by the time he actually received the ball, barely a second later, there were at least three Spurs defenders well back in their own half, all ahead of Mateta. Moments later, the constantly dangerous (because Spurs were consistently omitting to mark him at all) Munoz blasted a shot off the top of the crossbar - bitter frustration for the rather less foolhardy FPL enthusiasts who still have these very popular Palace assets from their recent double gameweeks. At least Ebere Eze came up with two slick finishes to make the result safe - and claim the FPL 'Player of the Week' crown. But Palace really had been rather profligate with their chances: Spurs were so ragged and disorganised here that the visitors might easily have won 5-0 or 6-0. I can't see Big Ange keeping his job now, even if he does sneak into next season's Champions League.

Liverpool v Arsenal wasn't quite the great game we might have hoped for, but there was at least enough excitement in it to brighten up what had been a thoroughly dull weekend of football. Salah blanked (although he had a lively game.... and really ought to get some credit for the sublime 'pre-assist' for the second goal!). The home side went 2-0 up in the first 20 minutes, but then allowed a much improved Arsenal back into the game in the second half - even the great Van Dijk went to sleep and allowed Martinelli to ghost in behind him for an unopposed glancing header. Lots more strangeness in the game: Saka beating an offside trap early on, but then missing a sitter; Alexander-Arnold narrowly playing Merino on for the equaliser; Merino getting himself sent off for two silly fouls; Robertson blazing a great chance for a late winner wide, then having an apparent winner ruled out shortly afterwards (either for a very, very marginal offside, or for a soft foul by Konate - not clear which, and either seemed a bit unjust); in between which decisive moments, Odegaard also had a chance on a counter-attack, but scuffed his effort narrowly wide of the post.

Oh my god - if there was a Razzie for 'The Worst EPL Gameweek of All-Time', this one would surely at least have to be on the shortlist. Gary Lineker joked on the Beeb that it had been the most boring Saturday he could remember in 26 years of presenting 'Match of the Day'; and Sunday wasn't really much better, was it? It's difficult to point to any team that produced a really good performance (Southampton's spoiling display against City perhaps; that was the emotional highlight of a drab weekend, anyway), and just about half of them were really, really poor. For the third Gameweek running, the 'global average' score was stuck down in the 40s, and very, very few people were managing any better than 60 points. Almost all of the most fancied players (including leading 'sheep picks' for the week, DeBruyne and Haaland) came up blank. The 'Team of the Week' includes FOUR defenders, has Ramsdale in goal, and features such low-owned surprises as Gibbs-White, Soucek, Tonali, Schade, and Raul.

There were a couple of penalties and red cards missed, and a few very tight offsides (the Mateta/Munoz/Sarr one to me looked certainly unjust and almost certainly wrong); but the officiating problems this week were mainly about taking too long to reach the right decision rather than making a lot of wrong ones; it was actually one of the better weeks we've had from the refs and VAR.

Only looking just about a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this time, and mainly for the flurry of disappointing player and team performances.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... this is the last week that you could refuse to do so!  I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (35)

The rate of injuries has slowed somewhat in recent weeks (everyone's injured already??), but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and a preoccupation, for some, with the final rounds of the European competitions, mean that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual. Eccentric coaching decisions and incompetent refereeing may add even more to these uncertainties.... Will they this week? Let's see.

The tight turnaround this week (a Friday evening kick-off for City v Wolves no doubt catching many FPL managers by surprise - especially as having the last match of Gameweek 34, Forest v Brentford, put back to Thursday evening meant that there was a gap of less than 24 hours between the two gameweeks) may have provided the first cruel blows of Fortune for some.....

And indeed, the new gameweek got off to a strange and exasperating start, with in-form visitors Wolves being largely dominant at the Etihad, yet somehow not managing to make any of their chances pay (the highly fancied FPL picks Cunha and Ait-Nouri both hit the post!). This led to the rare (almost unique - I can't recall seeing it before!) phenomenon of the Wolves players getting far higher average ratings on the BBC match report than the City ones, despite having lost the match; in fact, 6 Wolves players were rated higher than any City players (except match-winner, Kevin DeBruyne)! And not only did City nick a winner somewhat against the run of play, and improbably cling on to a clean sheet - but Josko Gvardiol, who really did nothing all game, apart from one important block from an Ait-Nouri effort in the second half, somehow hoovered up the maximum bonus points. Ain't no justice!  More FPL woe in that Cunha and Marmoush, two of the highest-owned forwards after Isak, both unexpectedly drew a blank here; and that the recently excellent Strand Larsen was a very late withdrawal, with a groin muscle problem that might keep him out for a few weeks. Also, Rayan Ait-Nouri was very lucky to escape a red card for raking his studs down Bernardo Silva's shin late in the game; he probably benefitted from the overturning of Evanilson's red card a couple of days ago on the basis that his foul, though horrendous, had been 'accidental' - this looked the same kind of thing: a very nasty impact, but clumsy rather than malevolent. Though I'm not sure that presumed intention should be any part of assessing the severity of incidents like this...

Marshall Munetsi's penalty shout was a feeble claim: it looked as though he'd merely slipped over in the six-yard box as Gvardiol very lightly laid a hand on his upper arm for a moment. Nevertheless, Gvardiol was taking a big chance in trying to touch an attacking player who was slipping in behind him, and we do still sometimes see such tenuous 'infractions' penalised - it was one of those where, if the referee had initially seen it as a foul, VAR might have been hesitant to query that. And if a penalty had been given there, Gvardiol would have, in an instant, lost his clean-sheet bonus.... and all or most of his extra bonus points. On such slender margins in officiating do tens of FPL points - and the outcomes of games - often swing....

Villa prevailed narrowly over Fulham at home, although both teams looked pretty mediocre and lacked any cutting edge. Robinson was a little lucky to avoid conceding a penalty early on for needlessly barging Watkins in the back; it wasn't a very heavy contact, but it was illegal. Ruling out Sessegnon's goal for a faint touch on the hand as the ball came down for his half-volley looked fair enough. Unai Emery alienated a lot of FPL fans by making a pair of substitutions just about on the stroke of the hour - leading to the bizarre and vexing inconsistency that John McGinn received full appearance points while poor Marco Asensio got only a solitary point, despite their departure from the pitch being mere seconds apart!

Arsenal faltered again, failing to capitalise on a comfortable dominance in the first half, and then being caught out by - oh, the irony! - a couple of Bournemouth set-pieces in the second half. Semenyo took his long throw-in for Huijsen's equaliser from the wrong place - a curious new example of poor refereeing potentially having swung the course of the game. There was just a slight whiff of controversy about Bournemouth's winner, since it was impossible to see on the VAR pictures (whose resolution seems to be getting worse by the week?!) what part of Evanilson's body the ball had been deflected over the line by.

Everton are still misfiring too; likewise should have made more of their first-half chances. Long-range pingers from McNeil and Enciso were really the only bright spots in a fairly dull game. Everton fans are a bit disgruntled by the fact that Hirst's equaliser came after Patterson had been laid out at the other end of the field with an apparent facial injury.

Leicester won comfortably against Southampton, and really should have won by more: El Khannouss blazed a couple of excellent chances wide, and Vardy had a good penalty shout waved away.

Brentford were up to their old tricks again, dominating the game and scoring for fun,... but failing to shut out even a very poor opponent. They really need a better keeper: there was nothing to be done about Garnacho's 20-yard screamer, but the other two they conceded here were very much Flekken's fault (and I don't like the way he started whingeing at his defenders after letting Diallo's third through his legs....). One wonders if something's broken with the new Semi-Automated Offside decision technology, as we haven't often been seeing the justificatory computer graphic renderings which are supposed to determine the calls now; in this game we had a very long delay to verify Wissa's goal... in which no-one had been anywhere near to offside - bizarre! With United so utterly woeiful, it's becoming harder and harder to see how Amorim can keep his job this summer. But at least it was nice to see returns to the field after long injury abences from Mount, Diallo, Shaw, Henry, and Thiago in this game.

It was nice to see VAR actually doing its job well at Brighton, twice correctly overruling the award of a penalty to Newcastle, and then eventually stepping in to direct the referee to take a second look at an obvious handball in the wall defending a free-kick from 20 yards - but Craig Pawson really wasn't having a good day, to have got all three of these wrong the first time. Moreover, as with the Ben Johnson incident last week, his eventual decision to show a yellow card to Willock in the second incident was extremely harsh: Van Hecke managed to pull out of his rash challenge at the last minute, but it was reasonable for the attacker to go to ground in an attempt to avoid an anticipated - and potentially devastating - contact; going down like that is not necessarily 'diving'. Mats Wieffer should definitely have been sent off for a dangerous challenge on Tonali, and on that one VAR failed to intervene; I suppose they're not supposed to adjudicate on yellow card decisions, even for a second yellow (although, obviously, they should have jurisdiction over all potential sendings-off; that's just an absurd oversight in the protocols); but this challenge clearly met the threshold for at least consideration as a straight red card, so they surely could have suggested a second look to Pawson - which would then have given him the option to award a second yellow rather than a straight red, once he'd seen the foul more clearly. But for me, it was every way a straight red. I'm not sure if Newcastle fans can take encouragement from this game or not: they did dominate, and created large numbers of chances - but weren't at all clinical with them, which is why they needed the fortuitous late penalty to salvage a point. I don't think I'd be backing any of their players except Isak for the run-in; and even he might be becoming questionable.

For me, West Ham v Spurs - rather than the much-derided Leicester v Southampton match-up - was the weekend's 'El Crapico': two absolutely awful teams who would have been relegated this year... if promoted Championship sides were able to compete at the higher level any more. Spurs will hide behind the excuse of putting out a 'B team' ahead of their Europa League semi-final second-leg game on Thursday; but to be honest, at the moment their 'first team' isn't any better (one of the few consolations of their dismal season is that they've been able to give so much experience to promising youngsters like Spence, Bergvall, Gray, Moore, Tel, and Odobert). Without an uncharacteristic error (actually, a treble or quadruple error!) from Max Kilman gifting them an early lead, Spurs didn't look likely to get on the scoresheet; without the always lively Jarrod Bowen, neither would West Ham.

We might have expected Liverpool to have a bit of a drop-off in performance after securing the title a month before the end of the season, and perhaps to give a few squad players a run-out; and there have been signs of improvement at Chelsea over the past couple of weeks; but such a comprehensive win by the Blues surely took everyone by surprise. Van Dijk had a rare stinker, slipping more than once and racking up several mistakes and then scoring at his own end (by lashing a panicky clearance into his defensive colleague Quansah),.... before redeeming himself ever so slightly with a late headed goal to put the home side back under a bit of pressure in the closing minutes. Alisson also looked uncharacteristically jittery at times, and was very lucky to avoid a sending-off for cleaning out Madueke outside his area (saved by a late offside flag - although it might still have been judged 'serious foul play'). Jackson's injury-time penalty was a bit soft, but overall Chelsea were well worth their margin of victory - with Lavia and Cucurella particularly impressive, and Palmer absolutely back to his imperious best (as usual, he smashed one effort against the inside of a post, and had a few excellent potential assists spurned by his teammates; with slightly better luck, he could have had a 15 or 20-point haul here).

The final game on Monday night between Palace and Forest looked quite entertaining, with a lot of open, end-to-end football - but both sides misfiring rather in front of goal. No obvious controversies in the match; although Palace's penalty award against Sels looked a bit soft (and it was at first ignored by the ref; and I'm not sure there was a clear enough 'error' for VAR to insist on a second look). And Murillo became yet another defender to unexpectedly wind up on the scoresheet.

A lot of unexpected results this week, with Ipswich battling to a draw at Everton, Wolves being very unlucky not to beat City, Bournemouth stealing a win from a very lacklustre Arsenal, Newcastle labouring to a draw at Brighton, and Chelsea spanking the newly-crowned champions..., while City, Villa, and Leicester were, rather improbably, the only teams to manage to keep a clean sheet. With most of the big names blanking this time (only Palmer, Isak, Mbeumo, Wissa and Bowen produced returns among the highest-owned players), the 'Team of the Week' on Monday was full of left-field improbables; only Gvardiol, DeBruyne and Isak have any significant ownership. Of course, there were a fair few selection surprises and late injury withdrawals too; and some more exasperating eccentricities in the bonus points allocations. And it's ended up another very low-scoring gameweek: most 'good scores' are only in the 40s and 50s this time, and only a handful of outliers have managed much better than 60 points. There have been, I think, 4 or 5 really bad bits of officiating, with Craig Pawson failing to send off Mats Wieffer being the most egregious; but that's actually much better than we've seen in most weeks so far this season. Overall, I'd say this is barely a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', and really for wayward form and surprising results, rather than the refereeing.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (34)

The rate of injuries has slowed in recent weeks (everyone's injured already??), but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and the mounting distraction of other competitions (the FA Cup and EUROPE!!), mean that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual. Eccentric coaching decisions and incompetent refereeing may add even more to these uncertainties.... Will they this week? Let's see.

Nico Jackson broke his long goal drought with an absolute cracker from just outside the box - which, hopefully, should boost his confidence, and help him to improve over the remaining games. Alas, his anticipation, timing, positional play - which had been so vastly improved in the early part of this season - seem to have reverted to the cluelessness which brought so much derision on him last year. There were a few collisions and bits of wrestling in the box here which looked as if they should have merited a bit more attention than VAR apparently gave them - especially Caicedo's clattering into the back of Beto. But otherwise, there was fairly litttle of note in this game, either in the football or the officiating - apart from a couple of outstanding saves each from Sanchez and Pickford. (Two further observations, though.... First, there was an awful lot of 'faking injuries' etc. to waste time by Chelsea in this game. Yes, everyone does that these days. But Chelsea were really doing it conspicuously more than most here - to the point where you have to wonder if it is actually an official club policy, a tactic sanctioned by the manager. I do hope not. Second, Maresca served his touchline ban directly behind the dugout - where he obviously could have some 'emotional contact' with his players and staff, could easily overhear most of what they were saying, and could have spoken directly to them himself [though, admittedly, the cameras didn't catch him doing so] through the metal railing separating them. The terms of the ban may only state that he's not allowed in the dugout [or the changing-room, or on pitch during warm-ups]; but clearly the intent is that there should be a substantial physical separation between him and the dugout - and here, there wasn't! I hope he got permission from the League to watch the game from that position - in which case, it's their fault; they should have said NO. But if he didn't, he was plainly violating the spirit of his ban, and he ought to be made to serve the original ban again - as well as a substantial additional one.)

Brighton and West Ham are two strangers to consistency: they both have significant attacking threat, but most of the time can't defend to save their lives. Brighton have a much stronger overall squad and a better manager, which is why they're still in the hunt for a European place while West Ham are only spared the threat of relegation by the three promoted sides all being so exceptionally poor this season. The home side were much the better team in the first half, but failed to make it count; West Ham produced more danger after they brought on Fullkrug as a target-man for the second-half, but they likewise failed to produce many big chances... Brighton needed a couple of pingers from outside the box to clinch the result in a dull game.

Newcastle still aren't quite firing at their best - although Trippier is starting to show signs of his old greatness again at last. Here the Geordies were dominating possession and creating huge numbers of openings - but the quality of their crossing mostly wasn't too good, and their finishing was poor. Ipswich were playing with a lot of guts and resilience (Woolfenden's headed clearance over the bar, from his own goal-line, was little short of miraculous), and one suspects that - but for the contentious sending off of Ben Johnson in the first half - they might have been able to hang on for an unexpected goalless draw here. For me, although Johnson was stupid to hold back Isak when already on a yellow, that first card should not have been given; it wasn't absolutely clear - from any of the camera angles shown on TV - that Burn hadn't made some contact with his knee or shin; and even if he hadn't, Johnson's going down wasn't 'simulation', but a legitimate attempt to evade what looked like it was going to be a crunching trip. (And, by rights, Bruno Guimaraes should also have been booked for flourishing an imaginary card at the unfortunate Johnson behind the ref's back.)  The penalty was also a worrying piece of VAR intervention for me; there have been so many far more obvious fouls in the box this season that apparently did not meet the 'clear and obvious error' threshold required for VAR to whisper in the referee's ear about a possible mistake; but once that whispering begins, the referee obviously feels bound to reverse his original decision, regardless of what he sees on the TV monitor. And the problem here, even more than with the Dan Burn 'trip' on Johnson on the edge of the area, was that the TV pictures just weren't good enough to enable a definitive view to be reached: rather bizarrely, the VAR playbacks of Enciso's apparent arm-tug on Murphy only showed two angles - both from extreme distance, and both from the 'wrong side', with the attacking player's body obscuring the supposed point of contact (the defender's hand on the inside of the attacker's elbow); even more bizarrely, there was a third - much better angle - shown later on TV, much closer, and from the right-hand touchline where you had a clear line of sight to Enciso's hand reaching for the arm.... but even on that, the resolution wasn't anywhere near good enough to show if there had in fact been contact, or if it had been any more than fleeting and unsubstantial. (I'm not saying it wasn't a foul; just that the TV pictures weren't good enough to allow a definitive decision on the incident - and therefore VAR should not have been getting involved.)

As for the disallowed Newcastle goal, I think that was a fair call - although it was disappointing to see Ipswich keeper Alex Palmer going down like a bowling-pin. Yes, Guimaraes backed into him, and that's not allowed - but the contact was pretty light; he should have stayed on his feet and done his job of collecting the ball, rather than toppling backwards and looking for the foul to be given (he was taking a completely unnecessary - small, but non-zero - chance that the referee wouldn't find in his favour!). Goalkeepers should be made of granite: if an attacking player backs into you, they should be the ones hitting the ground - with bruises and regrets. As soon as an opposing team gets wind of the possibility your keeper may be physically and/or mentally intimidatable, they will target him for crowding and blocking at set-pieces (looking at you, Vicario...) - and you don't want to be inviting that kind of attention, Mr Palmer; it won't be to your or your team's advantage. Moreover, everyone surely now feels that goalkeepers are ridiculously over-protected by current refereeing practices; and having keepers 'play the system' like this, appealing for fouls to be given in their favour for the slightest contact, is only going to increase that general dissatisfaction. And maybe that will eventually lead to another tweak in the rules, or their 'interpretation guidelines' - wouldn't be a bad thing. So, I'd suggest Alex Palmer probably hasn't done his fellow goalkeepers any favours with this display of chronic lightweight-ism and play-acting; next season, we might perhaps see attacking sides starting to get away with a lot more in terms of crowding and jostling the keeper in the six-yard box - as a reaction to his piece of silliness here.

Southampton actually looked much the better side against a lacklustre Fulham in the first half, with only a couple of smart efforts from Willian (a curler drifting inches side, and a firm drive smacking against a post), getting a rare start, causing any excitement for the travelling fans. But Marco Silva made multiple tweaks at half-time, and the visitors immediately started to get on top, though they didn't finally apply any sustained pressure in front of goal until the last ten minutes or so. The Cottagers still look, for me, much the weakest of the six or seven teams chasing the other European places this year - though they have been punching a bit above their weight even to be in the middle of the pack, and their rivals all have their own flaws.

Wolves produced a predictably straightfoward demolition of Leicester - the only relegation team not to have produced even a glimmer of improvement so far in their fight to salvage some pride from a dismal season. Cunha/Strand Larsen/Ait-Nouri was a points-for-everyone FPL selection this week! Jamie Vardy's penalty probably shouldn't have been awarded in the first place (it was more a case of him running into Sa than Sa 'bringing him down'); and justice was done when he telegraphed which side he was going to put his spot-kick, didn't hit it that hard... and Sa gratefully saved it. But those were probably the two largest slices of FPL 'luck' in Saturday's games.

A fairly dull game at Bournemouth was salvaged for United by a late goal, deep in injury time. We'd seen a great early goal from Semenyo (his second in three games; or his second in eleven, if you're more of the 'glass half-empty' mindset!), and Ouattara curling a free-kick against an upright (Zabarnyi then putting a follow-up effort only just wide), and late in the game Bruno Fernandes put a 25-yard screamer just inches wide; but apart from these isolated moments of excitement, only the ever-lively Garnacho looked likely to create any danger, and he didn't do so very often. The game would probably have limped on to a 1-0 win for the home side, but for Evanilson's sending-off with 20-odd minutes left. That was fair enough, a good use of VAR to direct the referee to take a second look. The Brazilian was perhaps slightly unlucky: he took a wild high swish at the ball, reckless, but not deliberately targetting his opponent; but he lost his footing, and what had been his standing foot crunched into Mazraoui's leg just above the ankle; I'd say there was no intent there, but the impact was serious, and thus the sending-off could perhaps be justified; although it would be harsh to characterise such an obviously accidental collision as 'violent conduct'. It probably didn't help Evanilson's case that Tyler Adams had got away with a similar rash challenge early in the game on Garnacho, also reviewed by VAR but apparently deemed to be only 'borderline' for a red card; that one again was accidental, Adams losing his footing on the slippery surface as he flew into a full-blooded tackle - but his second foot never got anywhere near the United player, and although the tackling foot caught Garnacho hard, he had got a touch on the ball first, and looked to be trying to pull out slightly, keeping his foot low and turning it sideways so that the impact was with the inside of the instep more than the studs. The referee and VAR getting two tough calls right in the same game?? Maybe things are slowly improving with our officiating! The BPS, alas, is still a complete shambles: Hojlund, thanks to claiming the 'decisive' goal in an uneventful game, gets the maximum bonus, despite doing absolutely bugger-all in the game - even the goal was a somewhat fortuitous touch on Ugarte's already goal-bound effort. (I really don't see why it's any more 'decisive' than Semenyo's.... which was also a much better goal. But he only got 1 extra point! BPS is broken.)

Liverpool, as expected, cruised to the title, as Spurs just couldn't live with them. FPL managers who'd pinned their hopes on huge points from Salah and other Liverpool players will no doubt feel frustrated that the clean-sheet slipped away from them so easily, and that the final scoreline wasn't even greater.... and that Mo didn't get a hattrick (he somehow just failed to get on the end of Gakpo's hugely unselfish layoff to him, and then had Udogie take a second off him - putting the ball into his own net). The only minor refereeing controversy concerned Konate's heavy challenge on Tel in the box - but it was fairly clear that he'd played the ball cleanly and only clattered the Tottenham man with his follow-through, so that was never going to be a penalty.

Forest are faltering slightly on the run-in. They appeared to dominate possession - which is not usually how they like to play! - in the Thursday night game at the City Ground, but were unable to create many decent chances from it. Chris Wood, so often deadly this season, had only one effort on goal, and headed it extravagantly wide. And then two uncharacteristic defensive errors, from Aina and Milenkovic (and arguably Sels, too, who in both cases could have come out more quickly to mop up the danger created by his defenders allowing an attacker to get goal-side of them), gifted the visitors a pair of goals either side of half-time. Referee Darren England was a bit card-happy, booking a total of 8 players, and manager Nuno Espirito Santo; yet Keane Lewis-Potter and Christian Nørgaard were both extremely lucky to escape sendings-off for particularly blatant second yellow offences. And Brentford keeper Mark Flekken somehow claimed maximum bonus points under the bizarre BPS ratings, despite making only ONE - not particularly demanding - save on the highlights I saw.

There continue to be doubts about the application of VAR, but there weren't too many controversial moments in the weekend's games, and only Ben Johnson's first yellow card (leading to a later sending-off) seemed obviously unjust; although Evanilson's might have been slightly harsh too. And the refereeing in the Thursday night game was probably the worst of the entire week. The only big surprise with the 'Team of the Week' is that there are so many defenders - and so few strikers! - in it; well, and that Sa was the top keeper thanks to a penalty save, though later replaced by Flekken, who was even less worthy of dominating the bonus points in his game; while Brighton's Baleba and Ayari (and the not entirely unexpected, but still not super high-owned Macallister and Semenyo) were edging out the likes of Salah and Diaz and Barnes and Murphy and Bowen and Mitoma and Iwobi in midfield; but most of the 'big names' came up with something - unlike in many recent weeks! The big points-spread this week - unlike in the last two weeks, where it was down to a lot of randomness in the returns! - can mainly be attributed to a lot of people having left themselves without either the Free Hit or Wildcard chips to get around the problem of the Blank Gameweek and thus putting out very short teams; most decent players, using a chip wisely to optimise for the week, seemed to be scoring in the 70s and 80s (with the Forest v Brentford game still to play), while the global average was a paltry 38 points (on Monday; it did somehow rise to 47 by the end of the week - again, WTF???)!

This has been one of the least unpredictable gameweeks of the season so far; and also one of the best for the standard of the refereeing (compromised a bit by the Thursday game). Hence, it's barely looking a 3 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. If only this weren't such a rarity!!!

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Luck-o-Meter (33)

 

Astonishingly, there were few new injuries emerging over the preceding week. But there was still huge uncertainty around the toll the midweek Eurepean games might have taken - emotionally as well as physically - on the teams involved, and how much player rotation we might expect as a result of that,... especially with four teams now going on to face two-leg semi-final ties which will define their season.

Brentford and Brighton produced an entertaining game, though the south-coast side still aren't firing on all cylinders, and look particularly wonky in defence. Oddly, they had their best spell of pressure after Joao Pedro got sent off early in the second half (his frequent petulance really is a bit of a problem); but they were no match for Mbeumo at his best. Welbeck had a penalty claim, but there wasn't much in it: he was clearly jumping over/through Flekken's outstretched arm rather than actually being brought down by it.

Crystal Palace, rather to my surprise, bounced back fairly strongly from their abject display against Newcastle a few days ago - but were still strangely toothless. The big talking point here was Chris Richards's unjust dismissal on the stroke of half-time: his first yellow card had been extremely harsh, and the second one wasn't a foul at all (very, very minimal contact, if any). It was all the more galling for Palace that Bournemouth midfielder Alex Scott had been let off for a second bookable offence only shortly earlier (though that, too, would have been a very harsh sending-off, I feel). Luckily, it didn't really affect the subsequent course of the game (although it will have been annoying for the more than 14% of Fantasy managers who own Eze, seeing the defender's dismissal lead to Eze's tactical withdrawal at the interval): Palace dug in resolutely, and held on for a goalless draw, in what was ultimately a rather lifeless game, with both sides miles below their best.

Everton, strangely, seemed to set out to contain City and play for the clean sheet. On recent form, you would have fancied their chances of getting a win against their misfiring visitors if they'd gone after them (and the decision to start Broja rather than the recently excellent Beto up front was particularly mystifying). Everton did, in fact, have most of the better chances, with Tarkowski looping an early header against a post, and Ortega having to make excellent saves from Branthwaite and Doucoure. DeBruyne started, and played most of the 90, but had fairly little impact; and you suspect that he'll be rested in the midweek game against Villa. Everton probably would have held on to their hard-won point, if defensive lynchpin Tarkowski hadn't pinged a hamstring 5 minutes into the second half; they immediately started looking much more vulnerable at the back when Michael Keane replaced him, and eventually gave up 2 goals in the closing minutes - producing an unexpected, and somewhat undeserved win for Pep's men.

Ugochukwu's injury-time winner at West Ham felt well-earned: Southampton had been much the better team, for most of a rather drab game, with 4 or 5 good chances before that clincher. Jarrod Bowen's reliable finish from a quick breakaway was the only high spot for the home side. (Fullkrug's 'goal' was rightly ruled out for barging/holding the keeper.) I'm not sure Graham Potter will still be there next season.

The big surprise at Villa Park was that - for the first time this season - rather than looking deflated and weary after a big European game, Villa actually recovered strongly and produced one of their best League performances of the season. While Newcastle were short of energy, wearied by their big win over Palace in midweek.... and star man Isak barely got on the ball. The final scoreline, though, was a little flattering: Villa needed a big slice of luck to get under way, with a huge deflection on Watkins's opening effort; and further out-of-the-blue moments with Dan Burn's unfortunate own goal, and then Onana getting a pinger from the edge of the box near the end!! Villa fans, however, may feel that their luck was deserved, and perhaps even that on balance, things didn't particularly go in their favour: Watkins thundered efforts against the woodwork twice, and Ramsey once; Watkins also had a penalty shout ignored (fair enough, I think; Schar stuck out his foot unwisely as the forward passed him, but there was very minimal contact, and Watkins was clearly 'looking for it' - might have been booked for 'diving'); and Newcastle's goal started with a free-kick in the middle of the pitch that should have gone against Livramento rather than for him. An early upset in this extended gameweek for managers who fancied Newcastle to repeat their recent big wins (Isak, Murphy, Schar and Livramento are all high-owned at the moment), and those who - like me, I confess! - were sceptical about how Villa would bounce back from their disappointment against PSG.

Damn, Sunday's games were a bit of a yawn. I'd planned my travels to be able to spend two successive weekends in the best sports bar I know in Asia (it's not a high bar, unfortunately...), but I'd run out of enthusiasm by half-time, and toddled back to my hotel at 9pm... Even Arsenal's demolition of Ipswich was dully efficient, rather than a thrill-ride. And the scoreline was perhaps a little flattering: although they had lots of good chances, with Palmer making a few fine saves, and Odegaard hitting the foot of the post, Nwaneri's late fourth clattered off two defenders to wrong-foot keeper Palmer, and both of Trossard's goals were slightly scuffed efforts that squeaked through a defender's legs. Again, there's not much argument about the sending-off of Leif Davis, for his dreadful lunge through the back of Saka's right heel - a challenge that could well have torn ligaments or the Achilles tendon. There must be some surprise, though, that Arteta had chosen to start Saka in such an unimportant, unchallenging game; and then that, after taking a crunching hit like that, he wasn't immediately subbed off for assessment  He had to be withdrawn 10 minutes into the second half, and the injured foot was immediately strapped up and plastered in ice-packs. Arteta said afterwards that this was just 'precautionary' and he didn't think it was anything too bad - but I'm not so sure. And I don't know why he'd be taking such unnecessary chances with a player so valuable. (Further misery for Saka owners in that Odgaard's slight, non-decisive touch on his cutback to Trossard denied him the 'assist' for the first goal.)

Chelsea dominated possession without achieving much penetration at Fulham, but did well to fight back after going behind to Iwobi's goal-out-of-nothing (which surely should have been disallowed for Sessegnon fouling Reece James to gain possession at the start of the move). Chelsea finally achieved a first away win in four-and-a-half months - but they left it very late, with Neto producing the 'Goal of the Month' deep into injury time.

Manchester United v Wolves was a woefully uneventful game - until Sarabia's sublime free-kick goal in the closing minutes. United dominated possession but couldn't generate many decent chances from it, an squandered all the ones they did (all coming from Garnacho, who must be feeling particularly frustrated that all his good work counted for nothing): Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes - of all people! - were guilty of particularly glaring misses. The major surprise element in this eminently forgettable match was Wolves keeper Jose Sa feeling a muscle injury in the warm-up and having to be replaced at the last moment by understudy Dan Bentley - a bitter blow for the 3.2% of FPL managers who rely on Sa; and a sharp reminder to everyone that you really can't afford to be without a decent back-up keeper.

Were Liverpool getting just a little bit nervous, or was it just poor luck - that they could have so many chances and not score.... until Trent's cracking volley, when he came on for a 20-minute cameo at the end? Salah being played in behind by a lovely slick passing move after just a couple of minutes, but seeing his shot ricochet off the inside of both posts was a portent of how the whole game would go for them. Salah didn't play badly, and his 'blanks' this season have been very rare: it was a huge surprise that he didn't manage to get on the scoresheet against such a flakey defence. On the other hand, Liverpool were somewhat fortunate not to go behind when a scrambled Leiecester goal was ruled out for Daka's very slight nudge on Alisson as he'd tried to recover the ball on the byline. And indeed, the referee might well have stopped play - probably should have - for a possible serious head injury to Luke Thomas (who'd been laid out by a knee in the back of his head from his keeper) before Trent's goal. Leicester v Liverpool nearly being a goalless draw... nearly being a 1-0 home win?? Nobody was betting on outcomes like that! Funny old game, indeed.

Spurs looked very flat and uninspiring at home on Monday night, and might easily have conceded more than 2 in the first half against a very fluent Forest. Chris Wood's early goal being disallowed as offside was close-ish, but looked about right. The home side increasingly came back into it through the second half, requiring a few really fine saves from Matz Sels and an acrobatic clearance off the line by Harry Toffolo; and they eventually got a late consolation goal from Richarlison. But overall, another performance that the Spurs fans cannot have been at all happy with. It's beginning to look as if everyone is just concentrating on the Europa League as their 'Get Out Of Jail' card this season.

It looks as if City once again laboured to a win they scarcely deserved at home against Villa on Tuesday night. Rasfhord had managed to break in behind straight from the kick-off and slammed a fierce cross-shot past Ortega - but it was one of those that cannoned off the base of the post and rebounded straight into the hands of the surprised and grateful keeper. Later, they were let down (again) by Emi Martinez, going through a slightly flakey phase, who let Bernardo Silva's shot (firm, but not that challenging) somehow go straight through him. And it was rough on Marmoush fans that his cutback to create this goal was not credited as an assist because it took a slight deflection off a Villa defender's heel on its way through to Silva. The only bit of dubious refereeing evident in the highlights was that Craig Pawson apparently didn't see Ruben Dias's very obvious collision with Jacob Ramsey in the box in real-time, and needed a helpful whisper in the ear from his VAR colleague to prompt him to correct his oversight. (And WHY is Marcus Rashford on penalties?? He managed to put this one away, but he doesn't look at all convincing about it.) It looks like it was a fairly even game, but Villa were perhaps feeling the effect of having played three games in a week a bit more towards the end; City kept pushing to the last, and were eventually rewarded with an excellent Matheus Nunes goal deep into injury-time.

Arsenal twice took the lead, but twice lost it again - to a Palace who were better than in their awful midweek game last week, but still didn't defend at all well. Saka, apparently miraculously recovered from the crunching blow he took to the back of his ankle barely 100 hours previously, was chanced for 30 minutes off the bench, but had little impact. (I find that staggering: a week ahead of the PSG game, I would not even have put him on the bench here - Terminator-like though his physical indestructibility may appear to be!)  The one potential controversy here was a second 'goal' for Arsenal when Martinelli headed over the line from inches out after Timber had heroically hooked the ball back from the byline. The linesman appeared at first to have rather mystifyingly adjudged that someone had been offside; VAR hastily overruled that, without explanation, but then took a while to decide that Timber had failed to keep the ball in play - although it was very, very tight, and the supposedly 'decisive' picture shared with the fans was not clear enough to justify the verdict. Bitter gall for Timber or Marttinelli owners: such is FPL! At the end, it was was Saliba, of all people, who gave away the win, playing the ball straight to Mateta 25 yards out to claim an equaliser at the death; a lot of pundits were eulogising the quality of his finish, but - with Raya having come forward to the edge of his box to assist in build-up - the goal was completely unguarded.... and I think I can usually hit an empty net from 25 yards! (Saliba has looked a little bit error-prone of late. I suspect the stress of being - now - the only invariable starter in the Arsenal defence is starting to wear him down mentally, and he would probably benefit from being given a game's rest here and there. But Arteta's greatest weakness, for me, is that his terror of defeat is such that he seems to feel unable to ever risk dropping his best players: Saka, Saliba, Rice.... will play almost every minute of every game, so long as they can walk. This could backfire on him big time in the Champions League semi-final, I fear.)

It wasn't quite such a terrible Double Gameweek as I'd feared, with Palace and City surprisingly claiming clean sheets at the weekend, and City in fact managing 2 wins (though not terribly convincing ones...), while Palace picked up two draws in games they were generally expected to lose, and Villa somehow pulled off a drubbing against up-and-down Newcastle!! Only 3 single gameweek players  - Mbeumo, Wissa, and Sessengnon - ultimately made the 'Team of the Week' (barely half as many as might have been expected, with some big names like Salah surprisingly coming up blank), although there were a fair few more knocking on the door, and of the doublers, only Leandro Trossard racked up a really big haul; not too many others got into double figures, and the best of them were unexpected heroes, players that almost no-one would have owned - Matheus Nunes, Nico O'Reilly, Oleks Zinchenko, Yakub Kiwior. The failure of many of the most popular doubling picks - Saliba, Rice, Merino, Rogers, Rashford, Munoz, Eze, Mateta, Gvardiol, DeBruyne, Marmoush - to come up with very much.... will have been a huge disappointment to most FPL managers who bet big on the double. But it might have been very much worse; many of the biggest single gameweek threats - Salah, Isak, Strand Larsen - came up with nothing, so they probably ended up doing better than most players who opted not to go for so many doublers.

However, it was a very strange week, with an absolutely enormous points spread: the week's top performer got a colossal 158 points, more than 100 above the global average! However a great many players, possibly the majority, only got something very close to, or even well below the global average; and it appears from my country league that most 'good scores' for the week were only somewhere in the 60s. Funny old game, indeed.

This is only looking a 4 out of 10 kind of week on the 'Luck-o-Meter': a few contentious refereeing decisions (and there are still a lot of problems with how VAR decisions are being reached, and communicated), but only the Chris Richards sending-off and the Newcastle and Fulham goals were clearly wrong; and, astonishingly, there seem to have been no ridiculously tight offside calls this week.  However, there have been a number of surprises in selections, performances and results - which almost bumps it up to a 5 or 6....

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... it's not too late to refuse to do so! I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip