Luck-o-Meter (36)

 

The rate of injuries has slowed somewhat in recent weeks, but a greater incidence of fatigue, nerves, perhaps occasional complacency or dipping in motivation, and a preoccupation, for some, with the final rounds of the European competitions, has meant that already over the past few gameweeks we've seen more and more bizarre swings in form and unexpected results. The tail-end of the season becomes even more of a lottery than usual. 

And Manchester United, Spurs, Chelsea, and Arsenal are likely to be a bit tired - mentally as much as physically - by their European exertions this midweek. Eccentric coaching decisions and incompetent refereeing may add even more to these uncertainties.... Will they this week? Let's see.

And, oh dear, we are in the dog days of the season, aren't we? Mental and physical fatigue is taking its toll, and we're likely to see more and more woefully dull games. Saturday brought a whole clutch of embarrassing snoozefests.

Everton started poorly at Fulham, and were lucky that the home side failed to capitalise on the period of dominance they enjoyed following Raul's early breakthrough. A deflected Mykolenko shot gave Everton a toe-hold in the game on the stroke of half-time, and they improved strongly through the second half. The main talking point, though, in a very mid-table kind of game, was Darren England's near-unique sticking by his original call after a visit to the VAR monitor; it is very gratifying to see a ref not being prejudiced into reversing his initial decision by a VAR intervention (and here, it felt like the right call: Traore fired the ball at Mykolenko from very close range, and he was clearly trying to pull his arm out of the way of the ball, not reaching towards it).

Usually prolific Brentford only managed a solitary goal against dogged Ipswich? More FPL woe! And it fell to their overlooked third striker, Kevin Schade, rather than the more fancied Wissa and Mbeumo? Double woe!! And Brentford really should have got a penalty on a previous attempt to take that corner, when Greaves wrestled Van den Berg to the ground, but VAR didn't see enough to intervene. So, the goal should by rights have been penalty-taker Mbeumo's.... Thrice and four times woe!!! They really should have had two more penalties, either side of half-time, when Schade was clearly held when receiving Mbeumo's incisive pass, and then when Collins was rugby-tackled to the ground at a corner - VAR adopting a far too lenient attitude to 'holding' in the box, which led to increasingly extravagant wrestling from both sides at set pieces. Ipswich very nearly nicked a result, with three good chances falling to them in a flurry of late pressure.

Southampton produced a tediously unadventurous but impressively dogged display to frustrate an uninspired Manchester City. It would be tempting to say that Haaland was ring-rusty after nearly two months out of the game, but in fact he looked pretty sharp (winning a lot of high balls beyond the far post and heading them back into the six-yard box... where no-one was ever following up); it was more a case of the rest of the team having apparently forgotten how to play with him. Pep's selections were a bit of a head-scratcher as well; City looked far more dangerous once they brought on the likes of Doku, O'Reilly, Savinho, and Marmoush (who crashed a thumping shot on to the crossbar within minutes of coming on at the very end of the game), and you suspect they could have broken Southampton down if they'd been on from the start. The home side were maybe a little fortunate to get away with a couple of shoves in the penalty area, but in both cases the City players didn't help their appeal by going down so heavily under fairly trivial contact. The last quarter of an hour (half of that, amazingly, added on) actually became quite tense and exciting, as every football fan in the world other than City supporters was praying for the minnows to hang on to their hard-earned draw. (And it's hard not to indulge in a little schadenfreude at all the naive FPL managers who brought in Haaland and/or DeBruyne this week - often at the expense of far more reliable producers like Salah and Isak! It is dangerous to chase week-by-week points from a 'soft fixture'!)

Wolves were yet another team who were strangely flat this Saturday. On recent form, you would have fancied them to spank Brighton quite comfortably - but they rarely got in the game (a solitary low shot from the edge of the box from Cunha being well turned away by Verbruggen early in the second half). A particularly rough day for fans of the recently popular Matheus Cunha (over 15% ownership in FPL), who conceded a penalty (WHY was he playing in the back line???), got booked for it (and maybe was fortunate not to get a red card: if it was a deliberate foul [though I think you could take the view that it was just a clumsy late swish at the ball rather than an attempted trip; and he barely made contact with his toe on the side of the attacker's shin], it was surely also a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity'?), and was then subbed off just shy of the hour - for a nul-pointer. Cruel, cruel game!

Bournemouth were perhaps a little unlucky not to get at least a point out of their game, but their finishing just wasn't good enough: Semenyo drilled a shot just wide of the post, and right at the death, substitute Jebbison somehow managed to head over the bar from a yard or so out. Early in the game, Asensio had hit a firm shot against the foot of the post. That was about it - Watkins's solitary goal came 'out of nothing'; there was no sustained pressure from either side. Tyrone Mings was lucky to escape a red card for breaking Alex Scott's jaw; the collision did look 'accidental', but when you catch a guy in the face with your elbow, at speed, you can expect to be penalised most of the time.

Chelsea, too, were a shadow of the side that embarrassed Liverpool last week - perhaps somewhat flummoxed by Howe's crafty decision to line up with a back-three. Newcastle, however, were lacking a cutting-edge themselves, and failed to capitalise on Tonali's early breakthrough goal - even after Chelsea had been reduced to 10 men. Indeed, Chelsea grew into the game through the second half, and were piling on some worrying pressure during the last 20 minutes - until Bruno G pinged in a dipper from just outside the box with a few minutes left. There can't be any dispute about Jackson's sending-off: he clearly had a look at where Botman was, and then charged into him, leading with his elbow. It was such an ugly foul, so obviously committed with intent, that I wouldn't be at all surprised if the FA add another game or two to his mandatory three-match suspension, for exceptionally dangerous play. The only surprise here was that referee John Brooks initially gave the foul only a yellow card; and that it then took such an inordinately long time for VAR to recommend a second look,.... and then that the second look also seemed to take him forever. It was such an obvious and clearcut red card - what on earth was the problem?? (Some of the offside checks have been taking well over a minute lately too - even when there's no close call to be determined. Something amiss with the technology, it would seem.) Later on, VAR declined to intervene when James shoved Gordon to the ground in the box; Gordon was perhaps suffering for having got himself a reputation as someone who goes looking for fouls in the box a bit too obviously, but here James clearly shoulder-charged him in the back - and it was definitely at least worth a second look.

A lot of surprises at the City Ground: a rare-ish goal - a very, very rare headed goal! - from Morgan Gibbs-White (the blocking defender standing nearly 15 yards back from Elanga's touchline free-kick was a big help with that - but that appeared to be his decision, rather than a referee's instruction); Chris Wood, somewhat out of form over the past couple of months, suddenly coming up with a superb diving header; a surprisingly tough performance from relegated Leicester, but still no 200th goal for Jamie Vardy; and then a late equaliser from Buonanotte, to devastate Forest's Champions League hopes.

West Ham finally seemed to be clicking under Graham Potter at Old Trafford, playing with passion and cohesion to end a long winless drought. But it was only against United, who seem to be getting progressively more dire with each passing week. Ruben Amorim's relentless negativity in post-match interviews is now extending to admitting that United don't deserve to be in next season's Champions League if they play like this - which, while obviously true, isn't the sort of thing that the fans like to hear, or that serves any useful purpose. His gloom now even extends to his own prospects in the job, acknowledging that maybe someone should replace him if he can't quickly re-instil a winning mentality in this shambolic team - not clear if he's asking to be sacked, or acknowledging that he's under the threat of it, but again.... not the sort of thing it's encouraging for players or fans to hear at this point.

Rotations ahead of looming Cup Finals for Spurs and Palace were perhaps not as bad as might have been feared: Glasner gave recently-back-from-injury Adam Wharton the day off, but otherwise went with his best eleven, including Eze. Postecoglou put in back-up keeper Kinsky (though that might possibly be a permanent, form-related change?), though he yanked Betancur at half-time, and Porro just minutes shy of the hour - sore vexation for any FPL managers foolhardy enough to still hold any Spurs players! Sarr's tap-in of a great Munoz square-ball across the six-yard box to give Palace an apparent early lead was laboriously ruled out by VAR for a highly questionable offside: ultimately the computer graphic picture showed Mateta ostensibly offside at the start of the move, but.... only by a matter of inches/centimetres, which - I think - is always too close for any technology to convincingly adjudicate (and it was his upper arm only, an area which gets a very subjective and inconsistent interpretation in handball decisions!), and he was standing in his own half at the time, so his upper-arm being in the opponent's half could only be a presumed 'offside' if all the opposing outfield players were in the Palace half.... which I'm not at all convinced of, because by the time he actually received the ball, barely a second later, there were at least three Spurs defenders well back in their own half, all ahead of Mateta. Moments later, the constantly dangerous (because Spurs were consistently omitting to mark him at all) Munoz blasted a shot off the top of the crossbar - bitter frustration for the rather less foolhardy FPL enthusiasts who still have these very popular Palace assets from their recent double gameweeks. At least Ebere Eze came up with two slick finishes to make the result safe - and claim the FPL 'Player of the Week' crown. But Palace really had been rather profligate with their chances: Spurs were so ragged and disorganised here that the visitors might easily have won 5-0 or 6-0. I can't see Big Ange keeping his job now, even if he does sneak into next season's Champions League.

Liverpool v Arsenal wasn't quite the great game we might have hoped for, but there was at least enough excitement in it to brighten up what had been a thoroughly dull weekend of football. Salah blanked (although he had a lively game.... and really ought to get some credit for the sublime 'pre-assist' for the second goal!). The home side went 2-0 up in the first 20 minutes, but then allowed a much improved Arsenal back into the game in the second half - even the great Van Dijk went to sleep and allowed Martinelli to ghost in behind him for an unopposed glancing header. Lots more strangeness in the game: Saka beating an offside trap early on, but then missing a sitter; Alexander-Arnold narrowly playing Merino on for the equaliser; Merino getting himself sent off for two silly fouls; Robertson blazing a great chance for a late winner wide, then having an apparent winner ruled out shortly afterwards (either for a very, very marginal offside, or for a soft foul by Konate - not clear which, and either seemed a bit unjust); in between which decisive moments, Odegaard also had a chance on a counter-attack, but scuffed his effort narrowly wide of the post.

Oh my god - if there was a Razzie for 'The Worst EPL Gameweek of All-Time', this one would surely at least have to be on the shortlist. Gary Lineker joked on the Beeb that it had been the most boring Saturday he could remember in 26 years of presenting 'Match of the Day'; and Sunday wasn't really much better, was it? It's difficult to point to any team that produced a really good performance (Southampton's spoiling display against City perhaps; that was the emotional highlight of a drab weekend, anyway), and just about half of them were really, really poor. For the third Gameweek running, the 'global average' score was stuck down in the 40s, and very, very few people were managing any better than 60 points. Almost all of the most fancied players (including leading 'sheep picks' for the week, DeBruyne and Haaland) came up blank. The 'Team of the Week' includes FOUR defenders, has Ramsdale in goal, and features such low-owned surprises as Gibbs-White, Soucek, Tonali, Schade, and Raul.

There were a couple of penalties and red cards missed, and a few very tight offsides (the Mateta/Munoz/Sarr one to me looked certainly unjust and almost certainly wrong); but the officiating problems this week were mainly about taking too long to reach the right decision rather than making a lot of wrong ones; it was actually one of the better weeks we've had from the refs and VAR.

Only looking just about a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this time, and mainly for the flurry of disappointing player and team performances.

DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  Most people will have played the dratted 'Assistant Manager' chip by now; but if you haven't.... this is the last week that you could refuse to do so!  I took the high road by quitting playing the game for the rest of the season when it was introduced in GW23. [I worry that, if people don't protest vociferously about it, the new chip may become a permanent feature of the game - and it will completely ruin it.]  If you didn't feel able to join me in such an emphatic gesture, I hope you at least thought about refusing to use the Assistant Manager chip (and still might refuse, if you've kept it till the last few gameweeks of the season).

Please also criticise and complain about it online as much as possible. And raise objections to it with any football or media figures you know how to contact, and - if possible - try to find a way to protest about it directly to the FPL hierarchy (and let me know how, if you manage that!).

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip