What next?

 

Well, well, well - the big 'upset' I barely dared to wish for has indeed come to pass, with Pep's Manchester City being well-beaten by Al Hilal on Monday night (turns out that, even with new players onboard and tweaks of set-up.... City are still defenceless against counter-attacks!). And on the same day, Inter Milan, who came so close to winning Serie A and the Champions League this season, were booted out of the Club World Cup by lowly Fluminense.

After two such expectation-defying results in quick succession, we should be very wary of prognosticating on the quarter-final round of this fascinating competition. But I'll try....

It is unfortunate that, thanks to Bayern screwing up in their final group game against Benfica, the two teams which I - and everyone else! - had expected to be the leading contenders for the title wound up in the same half of the draw, and are playing each other in a quarter-final. It is hard not to regard this as probably the de facto final, since no-one else in the competition - not even Real Madrid - has looked anywhere near these two so far.

The additional excitement/uncertainty in this clash of the titans cenntres on the the possible impact of Ousmane Dembele and Jamal Musiala. Both have been struggling with injury, but seem to be possibly poised for a full return. I fear it's unlikely that either of them will in fact play the full 90 minutes, and they're unlikely to be anywhere near their best, even if they do; but even a cameo from players of this calibre can turn a match...

Bayern have struggled for consistency so far, and there are question-marks over their somewhat makeshift defence. Harry Kane appears to have brought his scoring boots to the tournament; but we haven't seen that much of a threat from anyone else (except in that Auckland game, which obviously doesn't count). Before the tournament kicked off, I worried that their Champions League triumph might have taken some of the edge off PSG's appetite-for-glory - but it doesn't look like it; they seem eager and determined to me, intent on further success. So, I'd be betting on PSG for this one - although it might be very close, and I'm hoping above all for a really good game. (A few weeks ago, I would have said that this match-up was almost bound to be the 'Game of the Tournament'; but now it's going to be very hard to top Al Hilal's stirring demolition of City!)

Real Madrid have been misfiring a little so far (also nearly getting beaten by Inzaghi's Al Hilal in the group stage). With Mbappe out with illness, and Vini Jnr and Rodrygo blowing hot and cold with remarkable rapidity, they've lacked much incisiveness up front. But there are signs that new manager Xabi Alonso is starting to put his stamp on them, and I'd expect them to get better with each game. And they are a club that loves to win big trophies, so they might have a very good chance in the likely semi-final against PSG or Bayern, (Yep, sorry, Dortmund, you just haven't looked very good in this tournament so far, and it will be a cold day in hell before you can upset Los Blancos here....)

For sentimentalists it's perhaps a pity that the last round's two 'giant-killers', Fluminense and Al Hilal, have to go up against each other now; but at least that guarantees there'll be at least one non-European team in the semi-finals - which must be good for the tournament, and for its aim of promoting the development of the world game across other continents.  Alas, I feel Fluminense have relied mainly on defensive stubbornness, and they've probably now gone a bit further than they really deserved to. Meanwhile, Simone Inzaghi, one of the most inventive and inspirational young coaches to emerge in the last few years, seems to have been able to work some of his magic on Al Hilal immediately - and they now look like they wouldn't be at all out of place in the semi-final, or the final,.... or even winning the Cup (if the European big boys from the other half of the draw should happen to have a slightly off day against them). Would that console Inzaghi for the pain of his parting from Inter, would it make up for that damp squib of a performance in the Champions League Final? Will he have an opportunity of revenge against PSG??  It would be quite a fairy-story! I wouldn't bet on it. But I do dream fondly of the possibility.

Palmeiras v Chelsea might be the toughest of the lot to call. The Brazilian side have looked very good so far, but, as with Fluminense, I have a feeling that their charge may have run out of steam now - having already progressed a little bit further than they probably expected. And the loss of Joaquin Piquerez and Gustavo Gomez to suspension is bound to weaken them in defence. Chelsea will similarly be missing their midfield lynchpin Moises Caicedo after he picked up a second yellow card against Benfica (there's an amnesty on accumulated yellow cards after this round, so we can probably expect some uninhibited tackling in these games!!), but hopefully that won't have quite such a damaging impact, so long as Romeo Lavia's still fit (presumably Enzo Fernandez will drop back alongside him in the double-pivot, which will reduce their attacking options - but it shouldn't be the end of the world). Cole Palmer has started to show some of his magic again, having a fierce near-post shot heroically clawed away by Trubin in the Benfica match, and being credited with assists on two of the four Chelsea goals. It would be nice to see him really catch fire again in this tournament; and Palmeiras look like a good opportunity for that to happen. Moreover, the spirit Chelsea showed the other night in not being disheartened by the unjust penalty award against them in the dying minutes of regular time, but immediately refocusing again and powering on to a comfortable, win - that was really very impressive. Sure, Benfica having a man sent off almost as soon as the extra time started was a big help, but that didn't really appear to be the desisive factor; Chelsea were playing with a determination and self-belief that would surely have carried them through against a full-strength opponent. I think that could be the kind of momentum shift that can help carry a team to a title. But we shall see. I'm not completely convinced of Maresca's acuity as a coach, and I can equally imagine them suddenly reverting to the under-performing mess they were from December to April last season.

And from the Fantasy point of view - many people have just received a painful reminder about the importance of spreading risk in your selections in a knockout tournament like this. I've come across a number of opponents in my mini-leagues who are now left without 7 or 8 players (just through eliminations - never mind possible injuries or suspensions, or elective changes you might hanker to make on grounds of form or whatever), and have only 4 Free Transfers to work with going into this round. Alas, you just have to restrict yourself to 2-players-per-club in the 'Round of 16' (never mind that the game allows you more...), even if you're really confident they're bound to go through to the next round (so many people felt like that about City!!). And you can't afford to take any players from clubs that you're not really confident will go through. (It's unlikely that even an oustanding points-prospect like Yildiz or Otamendi can produce a good haul in a game they don't win. And even if, by some miracle, they did - you have to weigh that against being left with a short squad when they're eliminated; and against not getting any of those juicy extra points from them under the 'Qualification Bonus' chip [which really should have been played on the 'Round of 16' - as the games are only going to get even more difficult to predict from here on...].)  Indeed, you really want to focus on the clubs you think will win not only the quarter-finals, but the semis too - to put yourself in the strongest possible position for the Final; but with unpleasant surprises always possible in a knockout competition, you can't afford to lean too heavily into any one team. (still no more than 3 or 4 players-per-club for the quarter-finals, I'd say).

However, given the facility in this Fantasy game to make multiple 'manual substitutions' - and take a second guess at your captaincy choice mid-stream! - during the MatchDay, your bench has enormous value. (In every round so far, I've had at least 3 or 4 of my original starters who returned only 2 or 3 points - or 1, or 0,... or -1! - but who I was able to replace with a bench player who produced at least 5 or 6 points. On that basis alone, it is certainly worth taking as many 'hits' as you need to in order to restore your squad to full strength (particularly as paid transfters here only cost 3 points rather than the 4 points we're accustomed to in FPL). And even if you're not swayed by the cold logic of mathematics on this (or you just can't be bothered with the additional hassle of attending to in-game substitutions), it's dangerous to leave your squad short because that's just saving up more woe for the next round. You should expect that at least one team in the last eight will go out 'unexpectedly' (plus, of course, either Paris or Bayern must), and if you already had holes in your squad, you could find yourself very short going into the semif-finals. You'll have 5 Free Transfers to address those problems with; but if all or most of those have to get used simply on plugging gaps, you won't be able to do much in the way of elective transfers to bring in the players hitting the hottest form.

In tournaments like this, it's vital to plan to try to minimize the number of players who get eliminated from your squad in each knockout round. And if the breaks go against you, and you lose a lot of players anyway - you just have to bite the bullet and spend points to replace them.