The 'TEMPLATE' - who's in it, and who ought to be in it?

 

I dislike the notion of a 'template' in FPL. It is generally imagined to be a fairly rigid set, a small set - perhaps just 11 players - that everybody owns. In fact, of course, there are rarely more than 2 or 3 players with an ownership level above 50%. In times of 'most template', you typically find that most reasonably sensible managers have 5 or 6 players in common, occasionally even 7 or 8 - but rarely any more than that. 

And, crucially, though naive FPL managers easily convince themselves, from having noticed so many 'similar teams', that these are the same 6, 7, 8 players owned by everyone, this is almost never the case. What you see is that most good managers have 6, 7, 8 players from a common pool of perhaps 25-30 most outstanding picks at any given time.

This season may be a little unusual so far, in that we have had quite a few players who are really making a case to be considered 'essential' (most of the time, it's no more than 2 or 3, and occasionally ZERO...), and we've generally had 9 or 10 players with an ownership above 30% - which is very high (again, we don't often see quite that many players so widely owned).

So, there is a slightly narrower template than usual at the moment; but it's not a straitjacket - there is still a lot of scope for differentiation.

And the problem with the template - as I've pointed out before in relation to copying the teams of the league leaders - is that it's an aggregate of what's worked so far, not a shrewd prediction of what's going to work best from now on. Many of the most popular picks have exhausted their rich vein of form - and are waiting to be moved out of squads. And many.... were sentimental, over-optimistic, misguided selections in the first place.

So, what does 'THE TEMPLATE' look like at the moment? And what should it really look like??

David Raya and Konstantinos Tzolakis are leading the goalkeeper rankings at the moment, but only fairly narrowly; and they have both benefitted from a penalty save (which gives a rather over-generous 5 additional FPL points, and usually earns an extra bonus point or two as well!), which is a once-or-twice-a-season freak (and Raya's penalty was clearly wrongly awarded!), and should really be discounted from a fair comparative assessment. Hence, Bart Verbruggen is actually the best keeper at the moment. 

Raya might outscore Verbruggen over the season, if he can rack up a huge number of clean sheets again, as he did last year (although Arsenal are so far looking much less cohesive than they did last season, and don't seem likely to be such a dominant force); but because of the huge price differential, he really needs to score 30-35% more points than Verbruggen (and the other 4.5-million-pound keepers), and I am very confident that that is not going to happen. I've said a number of times over the past couple of seasons that Raya has become the classic instance of that most basic of FPL errors, imagining that the 'best player' in a given position must necessarily be the best FPL pick. In fact, that is such a dangerous - and widespread - naivety that I have identified it as one of the key markers of a bad FPL manager.

Though a case can of course be made for Tzolakis (though you fear that Hull's hot start may be losing momentum, and a promoted side - however robust and plucky - is always likely to take a bit of a pasting from the stronger clubs), and Kelleher and Suzuki are also looking promising, Jamie Trafford, a solid 4th in the goalkeeper rankings so far, has the advantage of playing behind a very capable Leeds defence, and enjoys an exceptionally kind rotation with Verbruggen (you don't have to play either of them against a 'top four' side until January!); in fact, an optimal rotation of that pair has so far yielded 48 points - comfortably more than Raya!! And yet.... Jamie Trafford is owned by less than 6% in FPL (people were perhaps put off by his slightly high 5.0-million price-tag, and by the fact that he hadn't played a full season in the EPL before; they should be reconsidering now).

But the goalkeeper category contains some other anomalies too. Pickford is close to 10%-owned, but hasn't really looked worth it so far (people are backing him because he's consistently been one of the best FPL keepers  - if not the best - for the last few seasons; but this year there are clearly better options, and, for me, he is priced-out at 5.5-million; even if he does top the rankings again, it won't be by enough of a margin to justify paying all that extra money for him; at 5.0-million he'd be a very compelling contender, but at 5.5-million - no). Lammens and Donnarumma are also up close to 10%, presumably just because of club loyalty (it's ridiculous that they are more popular picks than the obviously superior Kelleher and Trafford). 

Dubravka and Kinsky are above 15%. Dubravka is obviously just a cost-cutting measure (he's probably the best 4.0-million-pound keeper, but isn't anywhere near to getting a start); and that sort of pick is a dangerous, usually self-harming false economy. Kinsky might have been picked initially just because he paired with Dubravka (if he gets injured or dropped, at least you have automatic back-up from his deputy at the club); and more recently, some potentially softer fixtures for Spurs have encouraged some people to gamble on more of their players. But it is a gamble that doesn't seem justified: Spurs are still not playing well, and Kinsky has been in conspicuously poor form so far. This pair are part of the 'template' pool - but they shouldn't be.

So, among the goalkeepers, Raya is a misguided 'template' inclusion; and Kinsky/Dubravka is looking like an epic foot-shooting. Meanwhile, Trafford is being foolishly overlooked. Happily, Verbruggen's worth has been fairly widely recognised.

In defence, Riccardo Calafiori and Maxim De Cuyper are justifiably part of the 'template', and pretty close to essential - thus far. Curiously, although the Belgian has the higher points total so far, he's still well behind Calafiori in ownership, at barely 40% compared to 54%. This can perhaps be explained by Arsenal's reputation, consolidated in their remarkable season last year, as a uniquely dominant defensive powerhouse; but so far this season, Brighton have looked at least as good, if not a little better. However, I still have the misgiving that Brighton have freakishly over-performed thus far (helped by the fact that they have mostly played very weak teams so far; and even two of the better teams they faced, Villa in GW1 and Arsenal in GW5, completely failed to show up in those games!), and with a potentially tough little run of fixtures from GW8 to GW11, I would expect returns for their players to tail off a bit. De Cuyper, in fact, has massively exceeded any reasonable expectation for his returns from this opening sequence of fixtures, and it actually wouldn't have been too unreasonable to hold off acquiring him - if you hadn't (as I'd recommended) included him in your initial squad.

There are, however, 3 other defenders with ownership currently above 20% who can also be considered 'template' - but with much less reason: Josko Gvardiol, Gabriel, and Lewis Hall. I might add Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa (both near 18%), and Virgil Van Dijk (above 15%) to that list too. Everton's relentless 'defcon' monster James Tarkowski, who's actually now the third highest-returning defender, having edged ahead of Calafiori this week, but still only the sixth most-owned (at 18.5%), is really the only one of this 'fringe group' of popular picks who properly ought to be considered a must-have 'template' pick at the moment.

Gabriel, as I explained at the start of the season, is just priced-out this year: he obviously wasn't going to repeat the huge returns he got last season, and even if he had, he wouldn't have had a clear enough advantage over his Arsenal teammates, let alone the whole of the rest of the defender category, to justify that ridiculous 8-million-pound asking-price. As with David Raya, even if he were the top points-producer in his position, he still wouldn't be a good FPL pick because of this extreme pricing. He'd really need to be the top defender by some distance to justify selection; and he's had a fairly ho-hum season so far, is barely scraping into the Top 10 defenders - miles behind De Cuyper, Tarkowski, and Calafiori.

Gvardiol has been buoyed by a run of assists; but we were just reminded this weekend that he's still not guaranteed an invariable start - possibly sharing minutes with Guehi in central defence and O'Reilly at left-back. There are similar misgivings about Guehi, who's returned fairly good points so far, but has actually looked in rather poor form in the last few games. These are players who've been widely bought because of their performances in the past, or because of the mystique of City; but City's defensive form early in the season just hasn't looked good enough to make them preferable picks over Arsenal or Brighton players.

Dangerous as Lewis Hall can be going forward, Newcastle's form is so flakey at the moment that he looks likely to concede far too many goals to be a reliable FPL defensive asset. Ezri Konsa was a big gamble that's kind of paying off (it wasn't at all clear when he arrived at his new club that he would get an immediate start, or an invariable one; and but for the fortuitously-timed injury to Christhian Mosquera, he might not have...). But I still don't think Arsenal are looking dominant enough yet this season to be doubled-up on their defence, and I don't like limiting my options to choose others of their players further forward (no-one else is really looking worth having at the moment; but that may change); and I'm not convinced Konsa is the best defensive option at 4.5-million (particularly given that he's almost certain to return to the bench once Saliba's fit again). And Van Dijk's selection by anyone was pure sentiment: he didn't have a great year last year (his good FPL returns were very anomalous, and more than a bit lucky, not at all an accurate reflection of his actual form), he's aging out and slowing down; and Liverpool were bound to face problems bouncing back from their fairly disastrous second year under Slot, and getting used to a very different new style of play under Iraola. Paying 6.5-million for any defender is tough to justify; paying it for one who can't even break into the Top 20 is absurd.

This year, Hull, Leeds, and Brighton have surprised everyone with how consistently impressive their defences have been. Hull's back-line were all priced at just 4.0-million (such a bargain, and they were so good in the opening games - it really was worth considering doubling-up on them!), Leeds's men all at 4.5, and Brighton's mostly at 4.5 or 5.0. Everton's defence also offer some very reasonably-priced alternatives/additions to Tarkowski. This is where the template breaks down: there's really not much to choose between most of these players, and so there's a broad spread of possible selections among them, and only Hull's Femi Ajayi has climbed above 10% ownership. (Strangely, Coventry's Bobby Thomas and Ipswich's Issa Diop were two of the most popular 4.0 defender picks at the start of the season, and although their teams rapidly proved to be extremely vulnerable defensively, many owners have stuck with them - presumably as rarely-used 5th-choice options - keeping their ownership level up close to 10%.)  These bargain options have looked so good so far that, really, everyone should have at least 2, perhaps even 3 of these cheaper players from Hull and Leeds - to free up more budget to spend in midfield. 

But because there's less consensus over these picks, the most popular 'template' picks are dominated instead by slightly eccentric 'fringe' options for the first 2 or 3 slots in defence. Nobody should have Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, Van Dijk; everybody should have Bogle (or Justin/Gudmundsson/Muharemovic) and Ajayi (or Mendy/Egan/Giles).

And Dunk, Kadioglu, and - most especially - Luka Vuskovic (currently the 2nd highest scoring defender!) are presumably being spurned only because there are so many other Brighton players vying for our attention at the moment (everybody wants Gross, everybody wants De Cuyper, an awful lot want Verbruggen, quite a few covet Kostoulas...).

Thus, in the defender category, I would say that Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, and - especially - Van Dijk are ridiculously over-owned; but Bogle, Vuskovic, and any of the Hull back-line are shamefully under-owned. Calafiori, De Cuyper, and Tarkowski deservedly enjoy 'template' standing.

In midfield, only Pascal Gross has clearly staked a claim to being considered 'essential'. He's started every game (which might have seemed doubtful before the start of the season, because of his age; that made me hold off trying him out initially), he's on most of the set-pieces, and he's on penalties again for them (again, surprisingly, given that they have so many other potential penalty-takers); he's been consistently excellent for Brighton so far - and is way out in front of the other midfielders after 7 games.

It is another odd little aberration that Morgan Rogers actually has a few percent higher ownership than Gross! Chelsea started so hot that a lot of people were tempted to go for a treble-up on Rogers, Palmer, and Joao Pedro. I counselled at the time that this was probably unwise, and also ventured that if only taking one of their midfielders, Cole Palmer should probably get the nod, because he has historically been much more consistent than Rogers, and has the theoretical advantage of taking the penalties. (He is also more central to their creative play, and so should be considerably more likely to earn assists. I think he's been very unlucky so far: he's set up great chances for Rogers, Joao Pedro, and Neto, which his teammates have spurned, had quite a few very near-misses of his own, and he hasn't yet had a single penalty - surely must be due one soon!) Pedro Neto probably shouldn't be overlooked either. The fact that Chelsea have 3 strong contenders to choose from in their midfield, and no obvious or overwhelming distinction between them... should mean that none of them are such massively popular picks that they muscle their way into the 'template'. Rogers doesn't clearly deserve to be in that position of eminence; and I suspect he won't remain there for long.

It's a similar story at City, where Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo (alas, now ruled out with a medium-term injury), Illiman Ndiaye, Phil Foden, and the just-back-from-injury Jeremy Doku 'split the vote' as to which of them you should choose (and cause some anxiety about limited minutes/unexpected rotations). Again, there's a great overlooked option here in Enzo Fernandez, who seems to be such a Maresca favourite that he will start almost every game, and might well produce just as many attacking contributions as his more eye-catching teammates. So far, only Cherki is up at the top of the most-owned board, with 37.5%; and that might soon start to collapse, after he was dropped from last Saturday's game. 

The more major oddity in the FPL midfield, though, is the continuing prominence of Bruno Fernandes - who, until this weekend, was still above 30% ownership. I said at the start of the season that, as with Gabriel, he couldn't possibly justify his 12-million-pound price-tag even if he were again the top returner in his position (which didn't seem likely). His insane initial ownership level of around 45% could only be explained by sentiment, since cold mathematical logic mandated his omission. And you suspect that his ownership now only remains so high, after weeks of producing nothing, because of a combination of stubborn optimism from those sentimentalists.... with maybe a substantial admixture of people who've just got disillusioned and already quit the game!!

Another Manchester United man whose ownership has held up rather stronger than deserved is Bryan Mbeumo, still a little above 20%; a goal this weekend has edged him back very slightly ahead of the pack, but he's really no better than Rogers, Palmer, Saka, Semenyo or any of the other City midfield options, or Hull's recently hot winger Mohammed Belloumi. He's constantly getting shunted to and fro between centre-forward (a position he doesn't really relish) and the wing, is missing loads of good chances, and just doesn't look very happy in his football at the moment. He's a player I like a lot, but he has performed well below expectations at United so far, and I don't yet see signs of that changing.

It's odd that Saka (17%) and Odegaard (nearly 19%) are still so popular; they did look very hot at the start of the season, but they and Arsenal seem to have gone off the boil in the last few games, and a major sell-off is getting under way. But given their obvious potential, and the positive signs we saw from them in some of the early games, it's not so unreasonable to keep the faith in them awhile. Declan Rice's 11.1% ownership rate is completely unfathomable! That must be just pure sentiment again, an undue reverence for what he produced last season (without giving thought to the fact that the majority of that output came from supplying the ammunition for the trademark melee set-pieces which produced so many of their goals last year, but were obviously not going to be nearly so much of a thing this time around). Dominik Szoboszlai (7th most owned with nearly 20%) is a player that I love; but, alas, while playing in a central pivot role, he's just not likely to produce enough points to make him an interesting acquisition in FPL. Likewise, I think Morgan Gibbs-White is a fantastic player (11.5% owned, and it was more until his recent injury), but... things just haven't really clicked for him or Forest yet; and even if they had, it's going to be very difficult for him to justify his 8-million tag this year.

Kevin Schade (though ruled out with a short-term injury at the moment), Brentford's free-scoring forward-classified-as-a-midfielder, really ought to be far more popular; his ownership peaked at around 17% - which, for the 4th best midfield points-producer at the time, is crazily low. Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier - the 3rd highest points-producer but the 15th most-owned! - is also shamefully under-represented in FPL selections. People are being very slow to cotton on to Villa's Johan Manzambi (although a slight worry about a calf-strain might be holding some folks back from buying him this week). Cody Gakpo was looking Liverpool's most dangerous attacking player, but suffered quite a sell-off after he suffered an ankle knock playing for Holland a couple of weeks back; his peak ownership was only around 12.5%, low for someone who'd been in such sharp form; and for a minor injury like that, people really could have hung on to him on the bench for a week or two.

Among the midfielders, then, I feel that Rogers, while a justifiable pick, is significantly over-owned, while Bruno Fernandes should not be in anyone's squad at his price-point, and Saka, Odegaard, Mbeumo, Szoboszlai, and Rice are probably way over-owned. 

Schade, Manzambi, Tavernier, and Gakpo, on the other hand, are disgracefully under-owned. But Gross and perhaps Cherki are the only players who've earned 'template' status so far.

Up front, things are rather more straightforward. Erling Haaland has enjoyed his traditional white-hot start to the season, and it has seemed pretty much impossible to do without him. Well, except that Joao Pedro and Alexander Isak have also looked in very good form - possibly even good enough to rival Haaland all season and sneak the Golden Boot out of his clutches, certainly good enough to present a reasonable cheaper alternative to him that would allow you to spread a lot of extra money around the squad. The reason why that probably hasn't been working out so far is that few of the high-priced players (Fernandes, Saka, Mbeumo...., Gabriel, Van Dijk....) have been producing much, while there have been some great contributions from a lot of much cheaper players; so, thus far, there's really been no budget pressure, no opportunity to improve returns by spending big in other areas of the pitch! 

Moreover, most no-Haaland teams I've seen seem to be taking either Joao Pedro or Isak; I think you really need to have both - none of the other forwards are close to their potential. People have been more sceptical about Isak because of Liverpool's unconvincing team form so far = but he is basically neck-and-neck with Joao Pedro. Some managers have gone for all three; but I think that's a rash use of budget - although it might become a viable option if we continue to get few big contributions from midfield. At the moment, though, Palmer, Rogers, Mbeumo, Cunha, Cherki (and Semenyo, though now injured; and Doku and Ndiaye), and Gross and Tavernier and Schade and Manzambi and Belloumi... are all threatening to outscore Isak, mostly for a lot less money.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been by far the most popular 3rd-forward pick early in the season, with an ownership of around 23.5%. However, Charalampos Kostoulas, Nico Jackson, and Evanilson have also recently been attracting some attention as possible alternatives.

So, in the forward-line, Haaland and Joao Pedro have been almost universally adopted as 'essential' in the early part of the season, with Calvert-Lewin being the most popular third-seat choice - but possibly about to be displaced by other claimants. Alexander Isak is so far extremely under-owned, a strong alternative to Joao Pedro (or Haaland?!).

The supposed 'TEMPLATE' is not just 10 or 15 players; it's currently a pool of at least 35 'most popular' players that the vast majority of selections are drawn from. And over a third of those most popular choices at the moment are very bad picks.

Early 26/27 predictions

I suppose it's time for me to again attempt some - rash, and undoubtedly wildly inaccurate - projections for where everyone's going to finish in the Premier League this year. The bold and the foolish, of course, dive in with a first set of prognostications before the season's even begun - but I won't expose myself to that kind of ridicule. I prefer an attempt at analysis, rather than mere hoping or guessing.

Analysis is difficult so early on, because we don't have an awful lot of information to go on: only four games in, and early-season form is notoriously erratic, unstable, ephemeral. And any form that might have appeared to be becoming fairly settled is likely to evaporate again over the huge international break which starts in a few days. 

And although we didn't have such a messy transfer window as last year (when several of the biggest signings weren't concluded until after the start of the season, and many players had 'gone on strike' to force moves, and arrived at their new clubs injured or woefully out of condition), we have had a very busy one, and integrating so many new arrivals at once - at individual clubs and across the league as a whole - can be very disruptive: it will take quite a while to see how many of the new boys become key elements of their squads, and how much that affects previous lineup selections, team tactics, and overall effectiveness. We haven't yet seen much of Barcola or Bouaddi or Guimaraes, and nothing at all of Manzambi or Caicedo or Baleba or Palestra - some of this year's biggest signings.

Moreover, although we have so far been extraordinarily blessed with the relatively low number of early injuries compared to recent years, there have still been a fair few: we're still without the likes of Mitoma, Minteh, and Hinshelwood, and Saliba, Kroupi, Mateta and Ismaila Sarr, Rodon, Bradley and Ekitike, Burn and Osula, Amad Diallo, Doku, and Maddison, Kulusevski, Odobert, Simons, Porro and Udogie - all of whom might have been of some FPL interest.

So, just a few weeks into the season, it's really all still a bit of a crap-shoot. We could just point to the current league ranking and say, 'Well, that's what the form indicates so far.' But of course, there wouldn't be much point to that. We have to try to extrapolate the underlying hints of the potential for sustained form over the season from this small sample of - mostly very inconsistent - results we've had so far. And we have to try to make allowance for the things that might have distorted some of those results: relative difficulty of fixtures (or the occasional 'freak result' in defiance of the expected fixture difficulty!), injury absences, slow adaptation to new tactical approaches (in addition to the record number of new signings this year, we've seen a very large number of managerial changes!), and unlucky sendings-off, bad refereeing decisions, etc.

So, here it is - my first fumbling attempt at a prediction of where everyone will finish in the Premier League this year. (As last year, I'll attempt follow-up revisions at around about the one-third and two-thirds points of the season as well.)  Unlike last year,... I'll throw in a few additional comments at the end about which players seem likely to have the biggest impacts this season, both real-world and in FPL.

As I said yesterday, Arsenal are the only one of the leading clubs who've started out in really commanding form, while their rivals are all stumbling around rather unconvincingly thus far - and so have to be the strong early favourites to retain the title. [Haha! I may have jinxed the defending champions - who just a few days later put in a throughly wretched performance away at Brighton and got absolutely spanked.] Manchester City are inevitably their biggest threat again. They would be for Haaland alone, but the additional attacking/creative threat posed by Doku, Cherki, Semenyo, Ndiaye, Foden, and Fernandez is also pretty terrifying. And I do believe Maresca is a very tactically canny coach who will usually be able to bring the best out of this extaordinary group of players. The big question-mark at the moment is their occasional flakiness in defence, and the less-than-confidence-inspiring form of Donnarumma in goal (his distribution has always been terrible, but even his shot-stopping and positioning have occasionally looked a bit questionable recently). Chelsea have started the season looking as if they might be even more dangerous than City in attack, but even flakier than them in defence (and Martinez really doesn't look to me like much of an upgrade on the unreliable Sanchez in goal). And they may not have the balance or depth in the squad to sustain a consistent challenge across the whole season - although the absence of any distracting European football should be a big help to them. Liverpool, so far, have been failing to adapt to Iraola's new requirements, and have looked as woefully inconsistent in defence as they were in their floundering season under Slot last year. But at least Isak is looking sharp again, and you feel they surely ought to have enough talent in the squad to finish securely in the Champions League places; though I do worry that Barcola could prove to be a colossal waste of money, that Van Dijk could be rapidly aging out, and that Wirtz is once again looking too physically puny to prosper in this league. Liverpool, then, are one of the biggest uncertainties of this season: they may have the class to finish a little better than this, maybe even to mount a challenge to Arsenal at the top; but, at the moment, predicting even a 4th place finish for them looks rather optimistic.

Although Bournemouth have been suffering thus far from an unfortunate propensity to drop points by leaking a late goal, I think they have shown some of the most impressive form we've seen from anyone this season. Evanilson and Rayan haven't found their scoring boots yet, but Tavernier and Scott have been in superb form, Kluivert finally looks as if he may be getting back to his best, and Kroupi could add further to their forward threat when he gets back from injury. My hunch is that they will ultimately prove to be stronger and more consistent opponents than our other two 'over-performing' mid-table favourites, Brentford and Brighton. Brentford, though, could run them very close: although Thiago hasn't hit scoring form yet, he's playing pretty well, and Schade is providing the goals instead; and Mamadou Sangaré, one of the most impressive of the league's new arrivals so far, is adding a steel to their midfield that they've lacked in the past.

Before the season, I'd fancied Manchester United to make a strong showing, and perhaps even emerge as - albeit distant and ultimately unsuccessful - challengers to Arsenal (they were, after all, the league's best team last year, after Carrick had taken over in January). However, they've had a really awful start to the new campaign, and are looking as if they might slip back to floundering in mid-table. A lack of stable selection in the back-four, a continuing failure of the front-three to gel, the continuing lack of trust in Sesko for a regular start at No. 9 (Cunha just does not like that role, and does not thrive in it), and the continuing absence of new midfield hard man Baleba have all been limiting their performances. As with Liverpool, this prediction for them is a bit of a 'compromise', and is likely to be way off - in either direction: they could do much better than this, if they manage to get their shit together; but they could also do much, much worse...

Newcastle have been worryingly inconsistent so far, but I like what Jaissle is doing with them, and I think they ultimately have a bit more quality, especially up front, than the rest of the upper mid-table contenders: Barnes, Wissa, and Elanga have the potential to become one of the most terrifying front-threes in the league. Leeds have started out the season very impresively, especially at the back (and I think Jamie Trafford might prove to be one of the most impactful signings of the season); but I have misgivings about how far you can rely on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to lead the line for you for a whole season (in good form at the moment: but in the past, he's shown himself to be both physically and psychologically brittle, picking up numerous injuries or just suddenly losing his confidence in front of goal). Hull I really, really like so far; and I don't think there's been any element of 'luck' about their impressive early run of results (if you're outperforming stats like your xGC, it's not luck - your defenders are making lots of great blocks, and your keeper's making lots of great saves). However, newcomers to the league usually get 'figured out' by their opponents, at least by the top clubs, sooner or later, or simply find it difficult to maintain the psychological intensity that's fired them up to make a strong start to the campaign. I'd like to see Hull sustain their early promise and challenge for the European places (I think they could well finish higher than these few teams I've placed narrowly above them); but 10th would be a hell of a result for a newly promoted side, so that's my fairly conservative early projection for them. Brighton, despite their strong start, just don't really impress me that much: I think they've been 'over-performing' so far, against mostly very weak opponents (Villa looked like relegation fodder in that opening game, and even Chelsea have an awful defence at the moment; they were lucky to come away with such a big win against Coventry, who actually created most of the game's best chances; and against Leeds, they were lucky to get a draw). They don't have a convincing No. 9 at the moment (unless Kostoulas, or the newly signed Promise David, can establish themselves as Premier League class; Giorginho Rutter is a 10, not a 9). And I worry that the need to rotate through their large squad (in order to keep up the resale value of fringe players) makes it difficult for them to establish consistency. (On the other hand, with Hinshelwood, Mitoma, and Minteh - three of their most dangerous players - still to return from injury, there is also a possibility that they could become even more of a handful later in the season... [And it does look like I maybe haven't been giving them their due so far. Their dismantling of League leaders Arsenal a few days later was indeed very impressive - even though Arsenal didn't really show up for the game.])

At the moment, Spurs look utterly abject. But they have somehow managed to grind out goalless draws in their last two games; and they do still have a very long injury-list of key players. So, the potential for massive improvement is clearly there; you'd think there's too much quality in that squad for them to remain in the relegation zone all season. But De Zerbi's tactical plan is just not working at the moment; in fact, it's failing so badly that he's managing to make top signings like Sandro Tonali and Matheus Fernandes look like terrible players. And already the Italian coach is looking exasperated, baffled, dispirited; I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him become one of the season's first managerial casualties. But just how early that might happen, and whether it would help or hinder Spurs's progress up the table is one of the great unknowns of the season. 12th might seem a rather optimistic finish for them at the moment (especially after they narrowly avoided relegation in the last two seasons); but if things start clicking for them, the quality in the squad is such that they ought to be capable of very much better than that - so, again, it's a bit of a compromise assessment, midway between the best and worst imaginable outcomes for them!

Sunderland haven't really strengthened their squad from last year, and will find the pressure of European football a drain on their stamina. They're still very robust defensively (and I think Roefs could again be a promising goalkeeper pick in FPL), but lack very much of an attacking threat. And for that difficult second season in the Premier League, finishing safely in lower mid-table would be a pretty satisfactory accomplishment. Forest are another enigma: they show a lot of promise under Glasner, and I have hopes for what Daniel Munoz might accomplish there as a wing-back; but it will take time for the new system to bed in, and at the moment Sels and his defenders are looking much less secure than they have in most of the past two seasons. Also, with Chris Wood evidently aging out, they don't have much up-front threat (though maybe Liam Delap will be the answer to that problem?); but this might mean that Gibbs-White and Ndoye have to step up as the primary goalscorers. Although Everton have started the season quite impressively, they have again conspicuously done nothing to strengthen themselves in the transfer window - while losing their best player, Illiman Ndiaye. Although Pickford and the very robust defence should be able to keep them out of relegation trouble, I can't see them having a consistent enough threat going forward to finish very much higher than that: while Thierno Barry has put away quite a few goals early in the season, he's also been profligate with some good chances; I just don't think his conversion rate is consistent enough to rely on him as a primary striker; and since they let Beto go to Fiorentina, they don't seem to have any back-up. 

Villa look to be in a world of trouble at the moment: they lost the core of the team over the summer, and haven't brought in that much in the way of convincing replacements: they'll really be needing an awful lot from Nico Jackson (and Manzambi and Madjo, when they get over their injuries). And even if those attacking talents can produce the goods for them, I worry they don't have the depth in the squad to endure the strain of a European campaign as well. Emery is a very shrewd manager; but this challenge may be beyond even him. And he is starting to look increasingly exasperated at this situation, as if he's reaching the end of his tether; I can envisage him resigning, or wilfully provoking his own dismissal with public complaints, before the mid-point of the season. With the quality they've shown over the last few years, you'd think they should be capable of at least reaching the top ten, and maybe even the top eight or the top six; but thus far, they've really looked like relegation candidates - and even placing them at 15th looks a bit hopeful.

Ipswich look shakey in defence, but might have enough attacking threat through the likes of Enciso, Fatawu, Maeda, Davis, and Flemming to haul themselves just clear of the relegation mire. I'm afraid Palace, after the progressive emasculation of their squad over the last few seasons, the loss of their inspirational manager, and now the early loss to injury of their two best goalscorers, are looking doomed to the drop - despite the talent of players like Wharton, Pino, and Richards. Fulham, too, despite having a lot of talent in their squad, just don't seem to be getting on with their new coach Arbeloa (another prime candidate for an early exit). And they don't have a convincing spearhead to their attack: neither Garcia nor Muniz look quite capable of taking on that mantle. 

Alas, poor Coventry! They do look like the one team you can safely bet on already to be back in the Championship next year. And I think most people had expected things to be very different: they won the title last season at a canter, and often played some thrilling attacking football that looked like it wouldn't be out of place in the top flight. But perhaps that led to some complacency: Hull and Ipswich not only spent big to radically rebuild their squads, they adapted their style of play to try to make themselves more resilient against better-class opposition; Coventry seemed to think they could essentially rely on more-of-the-same, and they have proved to be very, very wrong. Now, the loss of their star forward Haji Wright was a major blow; and he could give a big boost to their prospects if he can quickly return to his best (although he's expected to be out until at least late November; and by then it might already be too late). And to be fair, they have shown some signs of improvement, after two dreadful opening games: they nearly got something from their visit to The Etihad, and were really rather unlucky to end up on the end of such a drubbing from Brighton last weekend (their defence was abysmal, but their attack actually looked pretty dangerous). Another reason for many people's confidence in Coventry's prospects in the top division was the general affection and respect that Frank Lampard commands in the game: an intelligent man with extensive experience of the Premier League as both a player and manager, you'd think he ought to be capable of guiding a promoted club to a stable lower mid-table position in their opening season. But... at the moment, he's looking like he doesn't understand what's going wrong, doesn't know how to fix it: I fear he will soon be the overwhelming favourite for an early dismissal. But it's really too early to judge: for Coventry, and for most of the other teams, an awful lot could change between now and the end of the season - or even between now and the end of November (when I'll be checking in again to consider revising these assessments).  [A few weeks later, during the long international break, my man Adam Clery produced his own take on how everyone had started the season, with a particular emphasis on the main thing that wasn't working for each of the teams.]

As for the players... 

Raya and the Arsenal defence are again looking likely to be the clean-sheet kings. But Raya and Gabriel are much too expensive this year for early season picks; and, as I said the other day, I don't see Konsa as (yet) being a secure enough starter to be worth taking just to save 1 million on the budget. Calafiori is so far the overwhelming best pick from the Arsenal defence; and until Timber comes back, I really don't think you need a second.  

For me, Trafford, Tzolakis, and Verbruggen are looking preferable picks between the sticks; Roefs hasn't shown much as yet, but I still have faith in his quality as a keeper, and in the doggedness of the defence in front of him. 

Gvardiol, Guehi, Tarkowski, and - slightly more surprisingly? - Kayode are looking much the strongest of the other defensive options; although we can all load up on Leeds and Hull defenders at the moment to save money (I plumped for Mendy and Bogle early on; one of my few decisions to really pay off so far!!). We haven't seen that much of him as yet, but Munoz was one of the best defensive picks of last year, and could be even more impactful this year, as Forest seem to be trying to play with more progressive - rather than primarily defensive - wing-backs. De Cuyper was probably only a good pick in the very short term (he might not keep that start on the wing for long; and Brighton had two soft fixtures in the opening four, but now face quite a long run of far tougher games). And the other defenders who've made an early splash with attacking contributions - Leif Davis, Tyrick Mitchell, Neco Williams, Timothy Castagne... and even Lewis Hall too - all seem likely to concede too many goals to be good FPL prospects this term.

Bruno Fernandes is again playing very well, and had that one monster game against Ipswich; but, for me, he's just too damned expensive this year (however good he is, he can't possibly be 1.5x as good as the next-best options!) - especially with United currently struggling for form. Saka and Palmer are showing signs of being very nearly back to their devastating best: but at the high price of 9.5 million, we can probably only afford one of them - and might consider trying to go without either. Odegaard, suddenly playing some of the best football of his life and looking like he could be a regular attacking threat in a dramatically rebranded Arsenal this year, is a very tempting alternative to Saka, as is the currently prolific Rogers to Palmer at Chelsea (although I observed yesterday that Rogers has in the past been prone to periods of quiet form, while Palmer, at his best, has been able to sustain high rates of return over very long periods - and is on penalties as well!). Gakpo has started very brightly, but is now injured. Mbeumo has returned decent points, but hasn't yet really lived up to his potential - as a primary goalscorer generously classified as a 'midfielder', playing for a team like United, that really ought to make him one of the hottest properties in FPL; but last season he did not fulfil that promise, and I worry that it's starting to look like he won't quite do so this year either. 

There's an enticing array of options in the middle and lower budget tiers this year. At Bournemouth, Tavernier has been in excellent form at the start of the season; and Kluivert is looking like he might be finally starting to get back to his best; but Rayan hasn't found his form yet (a big disappointment to me, as I'd gambled on him in my opening squad), and Scott, despite excellent form and good early points returns, isn't likely to be a regular producer of attacking returns. Cherki has looked very dangerous, but might not be secure in his minutes; I am still optimistic that Doku could prove to be the most reliable points-producer in the City midfield, but I start to lose faith a little as this 'minor' injury absence drags on and on; and Enzo Fernandez - looking likely to get regular starts (as he's evidently such a Maresca favourite) and play in quite an advanced role - is worth keeping an eye on too. Schade is in good goalscoring form at an irresistible price; and Gross, Stach, and Fulham's Josh King have also made great starts - representing outstanding value at the bottom end of the price spectrum (although I suspect Hinshelwood could displace all of them if he returns to a regular start). Manzambi is the newcomer to the league who I feel could have the biggest impact (although he might struggle at a Villa side who look in such poor shape at the moment); and his Swiss national teammate Okafor is a player that I fancy could well come into some hot goalscoring form at some point - my final two 'ones to watch' in midfield.

Up front, there's quite a conundrum as to how to juggle the selection. Haaland is again looking the likely front-runner and near-essential forward pick, but he is at a wince-making high price this year that is tempting many of the shrewder managers in the game to attempt to get by without him. Joao Pedro has started out super-hot, and looking as if he could perhaps sustain a challenge to Haaland for the Golden Boot. Isak, too, is finally starting to show signs of recovering his best form, after an entire season blighted by injuries; but the unconvincing form of Liverpool as a whole makes me slightly doubtful about getting him at this point - unless you're going without Haaland: he's clearly likely to be one of the three best forwards this year; but they're too expensive for you to splash the cash on getting all three of them. I'm sure Igor Thiago will come good at some point; and Havertz should really be getting some consideration, now that he's clearly displaced Gyokeres as Arteta's preferred central striker (still just shy of 8% ownership, presumably only because there are so many other Arsenal players people want!) - I fancy these will probably become the most popular 3rd forward picks sooner or later.

Among the cheaper forward options, Calvert-Lewin and Wissa are the early favourites (although I expressed some reservations above about whether we could rely on Dominic to remain fit and in-form for a long stretch); but I would fancy Will Osula even more, if he can soon return from injury (yet another one of my initial squad picks that quickly went wrong!!). And I can see McBurnie, Delap, Flemming or perhaps even Kostoulas (though I wouldn't count on him keeping the start for long) becoming popular options at the temptingly low 5.5-million price-point.

Pick of the crop - the most interesting new transfers this year

Gosh, well, things did get especially busy on Tuesday, the last day of this year's summer transfer window for the Premier League - with 30 further deals concluded on that day (many of them in the final hours, and not getting announced until Wednesday). It seems there were 155 moves in total in the window, edging out summer 2019 - narrowly - to set a new record. With some really stupidly eye-watering fees being paid, it must surely have set a new record for the amount of money changing hands as well!

However,... it's also been one of the least interesting transfer windows I can remember, at least in terms of FPL impact!! The majority of signings seem to have gone to the promoted sides, and/or to be mainly filling out 'squad depth' rather than providing likely new key starters.

Below are what I consider the likely highlights - for FPL - of this summer's business. Particularly noteworthy players are in bold; and the most promising FPL prospects are bold and underlined.

PSG winger Bradley Barcola going to Liverpool is the only really 'world class' talent to join the league; and he's arrived too late in the window to be in immediate contention. With Liverpool still struggling to get to grips with the Iraola system, it might be some weeks before we're considering him (or any Liverpool players!!) for our Fantasy squads.

To be fair, Johan Manzambi and Ayyoub Bouaddi can probably be called 'world class' too; but they're young and unproven at the top level; and the former is injured, and joining a Villa side who look set to struggle this season, while the latter is not guaranteed regular starts in an overstocked City midfield. Bouaddi is, in any case, a holding midfielder, and thus not likely to be of any interest in FPL. Manzambi, the Swiss winger who had such an impressive World Cup this summer, and Barcola are a pair of players that I covet in anticipation; but, remembering how badly Wirtz floundered at the start of last season, I won't be rushing to bring either of them in until they've proved some form.

Some of the most interesting moves have occurred amongst the goalkeepers: new arrivals Konstantinos Tzolakis (joining Hull from Olympiakos, and currently leading the keeper rankings - although you suspect the promoted side's bubble of early success must burst soon...?), Lukas Hornicek (coming to Newcastle from Braga, and also looking very impressive in his first few outings), and Zion Suzuki (the Japanese national keeper, coming from Parma to replace Emi Martinez at Villa), and perhaps Michele di Gregorio (joining Bournemouth from Juventus - although Petrovic has looked so good at the start of the season that he's surely in no imminent danger of losing his start) all look very tempting new options at only 4.5 or 5.0 million pounds. 

However, the biggest goalie move of the summer is probably Jamie Trafford going to Leeds (how City fans must be regretting that now, with the form Donnarumma has been showing in the last few weeks!): he is currently looking like not just the best 'budget' keeper option in FPL this season, but maybe the best overall.

Amongst the defenders, the two biggest moves were the asset-stripping of Crystal Palace, with Maxence Lacroix (a bit of a monster for the 'defensive contributions' last season) going to Chelsea (who, at the moment, seem to be having an internal competition to see if they can concede as many goals as they score) and Daniel Munoz joining Forest (a bit of a damning snub to Palace, as Forest finished so much lower in the league than them last season!). Munoz is again likely to be the most popular FPL asset, for his significant attacking threat (though I'll be sad to see Ola Aina, a player I really like, presumably being displaced as the Forest right-back). It's interesting to see Ainsley Maitland-Niles (joining Everton) and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (joining Villa) return to the Premier League - but will they get starts over Rohl and Cash?? But the more intriguing new arrivals, I think, are the Bosnian right-back Amar Dedić (joined Newcastle from Benfica, and has looked outstanding so far - but will he keep his start once Livramento is fit again?), Hull's Senegalese left-back Nobel Mendy (I know, we might not want to keep Hull players for long - but he has looked very good in the opening two games), and England's own Taylor Harwood-Bellis moving from Southampton to Villa (playing more as a centre-back of late, although I think he's also looked good at full-back in the past; but given Konsa's departure, the centre-back slot is probably where they most need a replacement). Jérémy Jacquet has started well at Liverpool, and looks their most impressive defensive acquisition in quite a while; but, unfortunately, they are still all over the the place defensively, so I doubt if many people will be rushing in for him just yet. Luka Vuskovic, the 19-year-old Croatian centre-back Brighton signed from Spurs to replace Van Hecke, is a fantastic young prospect, and is looking set to be a regular starter alongside Dunk; but the game didn't price him very kindly at 5.0 million.

In midfield, Morgan Rogers could thrive in a more exuberant attacking side at Chelsea, and seems to particularly relish playing alongside his childhood friend, Cole Palmer. The early signs there are extremely promising (but... you probably only want one Chelsea midfielder; and, at the moment, that's looking like it should be Palmer). The young Ghanaian winger, Abdul Fatawu, who looked so dangerous when he was in the Premier League with Leicester a couple of years ago, and the very skillful Paraguayan Julio Enciso are both intriguing prospects at Ipswich; you wonder if they'll be able to have much long-term impact with such a weak side - but they're worth keeping an eye on for a possible short run of hot form. Arsenal's new Greek left-winger, Christos Tzolis, got their fans over-excited when he enjoyed a very lively run during the pre-season friendlies; that enthusiasm evaporated very quickly when he had a dog of a game against Villa on Monday night, picked up an early booking, and was pulled off at half-time. He continues to be a promising prospect; but at the moment, Martin Odegaard is the same price and in even better form.... (and you'd surely go for Saka over either of them, if you could find enough cash under the mattress!). Liverpool's Victor Munoz also shows promise; but, with Gakpo staying (for now) and Barcola probably getting a regular start on the right-wing, his minutes are likely to be limited; I suspect he'll make fairly regular bench appearances to replace one or the other of those other wide players, but will rarely get a start. And the swap of Brennan Johnson and Dwight McNeil between Crystal Palace and Everton is intriguing. Both lost their way rather last season (so dramatically that you worry there may have been some deep personal problem behind that, whether injury, illness, family issues, or general 'mental health' difficulties); but both are talented players who have been useful FPL assets in the past, and could be again - if they're trusted with regular starts once more. Many are hopeful that Leeds can offer Harry Wilson a slightly more stable platform to excel upon than floundering Fulham, but... I'm afraid I doubt if he can recreate that astonishing form he showed through the middle of last season. And with strong competition from the likes of Ampadu, Okafor, Aaronson, Gnonto, and James, I'm not even confident he'll hold on to a regular start with the Yorkshire club. But we can wait and see, and keep our fingers crossed.

Among the forwards, Taiwo Awoniyi moving from Forest to Coventry, to fill in for the crocked Haji Wright (who played such a big role in their title-winning success last season) and Zian Flemming (impressive with Burnley last season) going to Ipswich might be of interest for filling out the budget 3rd seat. And Nicolas Jackson - for whom Villa just paid Chelsea an astonishing 65-million pounds!! - might relish another chance to shine in the Premier League, after being rather unceremoniously let go by Maresca at the start of last year, just when he appeared to be getting his act together (although if he falters, he might soon be under pressure from young Brian Madjo, who looked white-hot in pre-season). However, the only really exciting addition in this position is Canadian striker Promise David at Brighton; if he gets regular starts and lives up to his potential - I think he could prove to be the best 6.0-million-pound forward in FPL this season (but maybe he won't get the starts; Brighton buy so many players now for trading more than playing).

Most of the transfers that have created the most noise this summer don't excite me very much. Many of them, I fear, might simply be destabilizing: buying in players who are too good for the bench may unsettle the players whose places they apparently threaten, or disrupt tactics and relationships within the squad if they are shoehorned in just to keep them happy - and ultimately this is likely to leave players and fans dissatisfied. I just don't see how Bruno Guimaraes and Ezri Konsa are going to get any starts at Arsenal, unless they suffer a bunch of injuries to established players. I don't see how Enzo Fernandez fits at City; he just threatens to delay Bouaddi's introduction as the regular second pivot, or to displace Foden/Cherki further forward - neither of which I see as desirable (and, from the online discussion over the past week or so, it seems that a lot of City fans don't either). Illiman Ndiaye is far too good to be left sitting on the bench until Doku or Semenyo pick up an injury; but that's surely what's going to happen to him (I do not understand players accepting moves to big clubs where they're not going to get any minutes; it's throwing their careers away). And all the fine players who've gone to Spurs - Senesi, Van Hecke, Tosin, Fernandes, Tonali, Savinho, Marmoush, Mudryk(?!) - are already looking doomed to suffer under that club's curse of being able to transform silk purses into sow's ears. Their start this season has been even worse than last year's; they need a dramatic turnaround very quickly, or they're going to be in the relegation fight all season again.

Two of the other most intriguing arrivals, in terms of skill and potential impact, are Valentin Barco and Marco Palestra - but neither of them are looking likely to get regular gametime with Chelsea so far.

The transfers with the biggest real-world impact are probably going to be those of top holding midfielders: Elliot Anderson going to City, Carlos Baleba to Manchester United, Nico Gonzalez to Newcastle, Mamadou Sangaré to Brentford, Joao Gomes to Villa, and Sasa Lukic to Ipswich. These are all moves that could be transformative for the receiving clubs - but are of absolutely zero interest in FPL, because 'defensive contributions' points, on their own, are not enough to merit inclusion in a Fantasy squad.

So, that's my rundown of the most interesting transfers: a number of 'ones to watch', but.... no immediate 'must-haves'.

'Ones to Watch' - for next season

 

Reflecting on the season just past, I got tempted to list a few players I think have shown us enough to make them very interesting prospects for FPL next season.

But NOTE: 'interesting', not sure-thing; and 'prospects', not already established leading picks. (FPL's own Facebook account the other day was touting Omar Marmoush as 'One to Watch' for next season. Either they're seriously undervaluing him, or.... they're applying a completely different understanding of the term than mine!)

So, in no particular order, here are some of the players I'll be watching with particular interest next season, players I hope could take a big step forward in their FPL points output.

Myles Lewis-Skelly and Nico O'Reilly, despite playing for different clubs, are in a very similar position - both outstanding youngsters who unexpectedly got an extended first-team run-out this season, and looked good enough to lay claim to being given a regular place. Now, if that were to happen, and if FPL reclassified them as defenders, and if they weren't priced any higher than 5.0 million in that position (although, obviously 4.5 would be much more appealing; but it's a measure of how well they did this year that it seems inevitable 5.0 would be their price-point; they might not be far off 5.5),... then, damn, yes, they would be very alluring defensive picks next time. But unfortunately, those are some very big 'IFs'. They're both really midfielders, who were only given an emergency deployment in a defensive role this year; I'm afraid it's quite likely they'll lose their claim to the left-back slot (and will have even less chance of regular starts in midfield). Once Pep's complement of central defenders are fully fit, we're quite likely to see Gvardiol return to being the usual left-back (and, of course, Rico Lewis has also been used there a lot in the past); while at Arsenal, Timber, Calafiori, Tomiyasu, and Kiwior are all alternatives in that position. Moreover, Pep and Mikel are two of the most notoriously 'risk-averse' managers in the League, and, however good an Academy player has been for them, I think they'd probably prefer to spend stupid money on an established world-class talent to plug a hole in their lineup, rather than continue to develop young talents like these two. So, I'm not holding my breath on these lads. They'd probably be more exciting for FPL if they took loan moves to another EPL club. ("But not with their current club..." might become a recurring refrain for these selections of mine...)

I have similar misgivings about Oscar Bobb - absolutely outstanding young prospect, but how much game time is he going to get at City? I am ever so slightly more optimistic for him, as Grealish seems set to be leaving this summer, and Doku has been called out by Pep as being unable - so far - to adapt to inverting into the middle (which is what City wingers are expected to do, currently; although that, of course, may change again at any moment...); Bobb, I suspect, having come up through City's Academy system, should be more 'adaptable' in this way, more able to continually modify his style of play according to his manager's latest whim. But, at the very best, he's still likely to be sharing minutes sometimes with Doku.... and Foden, and Marmoush. So... yep, that's another 'only if he goes to another club' option, I'm afraid.

Kevin Schade and Mikkel Damsgaard were already getting themselves into contention for occasional rotation into that crucial 5th midfielder slot this year, whenever form/fixtures looked particularly positive for them. And I think they might possibly kick on and provide even more regular returns next season - particularly if they have to fill in for some of Bryan Mbeumo's goalscoring contribution. (But equally, of course, Brentford might well fall apart if - as seems very likely - they lose Mbeumo and/or Thomas Frank this summer, So, that's all highly speculative.)

But while trying to maintain some optimism about Brentford's future, I'll also give a mention to Rico Henry and Aaron Hickey. I noted once or twice early in the season that these are two of the only full-backs who might still offer a strong chance of attacking returns, since that style of full-back play has largely fallen out of fashion in the EPL in the last couple of seasons. However, after so long out with injury, one wonders if they will ever get back to their best levels of a few years ago; or indeed if their team will still want to use them as that kind of attacking wing-back, even if they do. But it's a possibility to keep an eye on, I feel. (You see, some players might be exciting prospects for the season ahead, even if they haven't played this year!!)

Another defender I feel has the potential to explode is Ola Aina. If Forest can sustain the admirable defensive solidity they showed for most of this season, he'll certainly deliver very solid points. He wasn't too far behind his teammates Murillo and Milenkovic this time, despite missing a few games. He got a couple of absolutely banging goals, and looks well capable of providing assists too. But the problem is, Forest have shifted away from pushing their full-backs up to support the wide attackers; they may make occasional sallies forward, but most of the time they sit in their own half. I find Aina a thrill to watch whenever he gets on the ball anywhere near the final third; but it just wasn't happening all that much last season. Alas, this could be yet another instance of 'Only if he moves to another club...'

Iliman Ndiaye and Jake O'Brien are another two who caught my eye this year. Ndiaye excited a lot of people with his swift and skillful play - yielding 9 league goals, including a few real belters (though I'm surprised to find he didn't register any assists). And, given that he almost always started out wide on the left, and was mostly required to stay there by David Moyes, he should surely be reclassified in the game as a 'midfielder' for the new season - which, if his price hasn't taken a big jump, would make him another promising contender for an occasional 4th or 5th seat inclusion; all the more so if he is in fact to be given a more attacking role at Everton. But that might be hoping for too much: Moyes has to be cautious in trying to make the best use of his rather limited resources, so I fear Ndiaye will again be tasked a lot with holding width and helping out his full-back, rather than often being given licence to drift inside and terrorise opposing defences (again, if he gets a move to another club, things could be very different). O'Brien, rescued from reserve-team limbo by Moyes, was one of the outstanding defenders to emerge last season; and Everton, despite wallowing at the lower-end of the table most of the time in recent seasons, have still mostly managed to maintain a pretty niggardly defence. He might be cheaper than Branthwaite and Tarkowski, yet he'll probably offer slightly more threat of an occasional attacking contribution. (I don't mention Dwight McNeil here, because everyone's known how good he can be for some seasons now. I was tempted to give a nod to Beto too, but...  while I think he might occasionally be worth considering as a cheap 3rd forward, I suspect Moyes isn't completely convinced about his all-around quality, and will likely be shopping for a new first-choice centre-forward this summer.)

This is probably a bit of a sentimental pick, but I am a huge fan of Adam Wharton. It's unlikely that a deep central midfielder will ever yield very much for FPL - though, damn, he is very much a playmaker as well as a ball-winner. And if there were points credit - or even a significant BPS lift - for 'pre-assists', I think he would be in much stronger contention for an FPL place: so often he plays in someone like Eze, who then sets up Mateta or another teammate for a goal. But he's got a few goals in him as well, I believe. And if he manages to stay fit all season, who knows what may happen....?  (I'm hoping he'll have the kind of season that will make him an obvious and essential pick for England in the World Cup...)

And for forwards who've shown us a lot of promise this season, but probably not yet quite enough to make them super-popular picks at the big kick-off: Evanilson and Jørgen Strand Larsen. Enough said.

And a final pair - less obviously exciting players, perhaps, but ones I have a good feeling about, players I think could, if things go well with their clubs next season, take a big step forward in their points returns - enough that perhaps they could at least get into occasional contention for the last squad place in the defence or midfield categories: Jack Hinshelwood and Illia Zabarnyi. The big Ukrainian has tended to be overshadowed at Bournemouth by his more illustrious teammates - Kerkez, Senesi, Huijsen; but he has been very, very dependable - and almost ever-present - for two seasons now. Bournemouth, despite the loss of Kerkez and Huijsen being heavy blows, look to me as if they could be capable of pushing much more strongly for the European places next season; and if they come up just short on that, they might at least concede slightly fewer goals. And Hinshelwood - damn, he's unglamorous, but you've got to love his attitude, he is all-action. At Brighton, I fear, with their huge squad, he might never get a weekly start; he's another one I'm hoping will take a loan to one of the promoted sides, to make him a bit more of an FPL possibility.

I will close by reiterating my opening qualification that these are NOT players I necessarily expect to produce huge numbers of points next season. But - to put it in very FPL terms - a 'one to watch' recommendation is the sort of player who's unlikely to have an ownership of much more than a few percent at the the start of the season,... but might well be owned by 10 or 15 or 20% by the end of it; someone who's not yet on everyone's radar... but might start to become so over the course of the coming season.