Early 26/27 predictions

I suppose it's time for me to again attempt some - rash, and undoubtedly wildly inaccurate - projections for where everyone's going to finish in the Premier League this year. The bold and the foolish, of course, dive in with a first set of prognostications before the season's even begun - but I won't expose myself to that kind of ridicule. I prefer an attempt at analysis, rather than mere hoping or guessing.

Analysis is difficult so early on, because we don't have an awful lot of information to go on: only four games in, and early-season form is notoriously erratic, unstable, ephemeral. And any form that might have appeared to be becoming fairly settled is likely to evaporate again over the huge international break which starts in a few days. 

And although we didn't have such a messy transfer window as last year (when several of the biggest signings weren't concluded until after the start of the season, and many players had 'gone on strike' to force moves, and arrived at their new clubs injured or woefully out of condition), we have had a very busy one, and integrating so many new arrivals at once - at individual clubs and across the league as a whole - can be very disruptive: it will take quite a while to see how many of the new boys become key elements of their squads, and how much that affects previous lineup selections, team tactics, and overall effectiveness. We haven't yet seen much of Barcola or Bouaddi or Guimaraes, and nothing at all of Manzambi or Caicedo or Baleba or Palestra - some of this year's biggest signings.

Moreover, although we have so far been extraordinarily blessed with the relatively low number of early injuries compared to recent years, there have still been a fair few: we're still without the likes of Mitoma, Minteh, and Hinshelwood, and Saliba, Kroupi, Mateta and Ismaila Sarr, Rodon, Bradley and Ekitike, Burn and Osula, Amad Diallo, Doku, and Maddison, Kulusevski, Odobert, Simons, Porro and Udogie - all of whom might have been of some FPL interest.

So, just a few weeks into the season, it's really all still a bit of a crap-shoot. We could just point to the current league ranking and say, 'Well, that's what the form indicates so far.' But of course, there wouldn't be much point to that. We have to try to extrapolate the underlying hints of the potential for sustained form over the season from this small sample of - mostly very inconsistent - results we've had so far. And we have to try to make allowance for the things that might have distorted some of those results: relative difficulty of fixtures (or the occasional 'freak result' in defiance of the expected fixture difficulty!), injury absences, slow adaptation to new tactical approaches (in addition to the record number of new signings this year, we've seen a very large number of managerial changes!), and unlucky sendings-off, bad refereeing decisions, etc.

So, here it is - my first fumbling attempt at a prediction of where everyone will finish in the Premier League this year. (As last year, I'll attempt follow-up revisions at around about the one-third and two-thirds points of the season as well.)  Unlike last year,... I'll throw in a few additional comments at the end about which players seem likely to have the biggest impacts this season, both real-world and in FPL.

As I said yesterday, Arsenal are the only one of the leading clubs who've started out in really commanding form, while their rivals are all stumbling around rather unconvincingly thus far - and so have to be the strong early favourites to retain the title. Manchester City are inevitably their biggest threat again. They would be for Haaland alone, but the additional attacking/creative threat posed by Doku, Cherki, Semenyo, Ndiaye, Foden, and Fernandez is also pretty terrifying. And I do believe Maresca is a very tactically canny coach who will usually be able to bring the best out of this extaordinary group of players. The big question-mark at the moment is their occasional flakiness in defence, and the less-than-confidence-inspiring form of Donnarumma in goal (his distribution has always been terrible, but even his shot-stopping and positioning have occasionally looked a bit questionable recently). Chelsea have started the season looking as if they might be even more dangerous than City in attack, but even flakier than them in defence (and Martinez really doesn't look to me like much of an upgrade on the unreliable Sanchez in goal). And they may not have the balance or depth in the squad to sustain a consistent challenge across the whole season - although the absence of any distracting European football should be a big help to them. Liverpool, so far, have been failing to adapt to Iraola's new requirements, and have looked as woefully inconsistent in defence as they were in their floundering season under Slot last year. But at least Isak is looking sharp again, and you feel they surely ought to have enough talent in the squad to finish securely in the Champions League places; though I do worry that Barcola could prove to be a colossal waste of money, that Van Dijk could be rapidly aging out, and that Wirtz is once again looking too physically puny to prosper in this league. Liverpool, then, are one of the biggest uncertainties of this season: they may have the class to finish a little better than this, maybe even to mount a challenge to Arsenal at the top; but, at the moment, predicting even a 4th place finish for them looks rather optimistic.

Although Bournemouth have been suffering thus far from an unfortunate propensity to drop points by leaking a late goal, I think they have shown some of the most impressive form we've seen from anyone this season. Evanilson and Rayan haven't found their scoring boots yet, but Tavernier and Scott have been in superb form, Kluivert finally looks as if he may be getting back to his best, and Kroupi could add further to their forward threat when he gets back from injury. My hunch is that they will ultimately prove to be stronger and more consistent opponents than our other two 'over-performing' mid-table favourites, Brentford and Brighton. Brentford, though, could run them very close: although Thiago hasn't hit scoring form yet, he's playing pretty well, and Schade is providing the goals instead; and Mamadou Sangaré, one of the most impressive of the league's new arrivals so far, is adding a steel to their midfield that they've lacked in the past.

Before the season, I'd fancied Manchester United to make a strong showing, and perhaps even emerge as - albeit distant and ultimately unsuccessful - challengers to Arsenal (they were, after all, the league's best team last year, after Carrick had taken over in January). However, they've had a really awful start to the new campaign, and are looking as if they might slip back to floundering in mid-table. A lack of stable selection in the back-four, a continuing failure of the front-three to gel, the continuing lack of trust in Sesko for a regular start at No. 9 (Cunha just does not like that role, and does not thrive in it), and the continuing absence of new midfield hard man Baleba have all been limiting their performances. As with Liverpool, this prediction for them is a bit of a 'compromise', and is likely to be way off - in either direction: they could do much better than this, if they manage to get their shit together; but they could also do much, much worse...

Newcastle have been worryingly inconsistent so far, but I like what Jaissle is doing with them, and I think they ultimately have a bit more quality, especially up front, than the rest of the upper mid-table contenders: Barnes, Wissa, and Elanga have the potential to become one of the most terrifying front-threes in the league. Leeds have started out the season very impresively, especially at the back (and I think Jamie Trafford might prove to be one of the most impactful signings of the season); but I have misgivings about how far you can rely on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to lead the line for you for a whole season (in good form at the moment: but in the past, he's shown himself to be both physically and psychologically brittle, picking up numerous injuries or just suddenly losing his confidence in front of goal). Hull I really, really like so far; and I don't think there's been any element of 'luck' about their impressive early run of results (if you're outperforming stats like your xGC, it's not luck - your defenders are making lots of great blocks, and your keeper's making lots of great saves). However, newcomers to the league usually get 'figured out' by their opponents, at least by the top clubs, sooner or later, or simply find it difficult to maintain the psychological intensity that's fired them up to make a strong start to the campaign. I'd like to see Hull sustain their early promise and challenge for the European places (I think they could well finish higher than these few teams I've placed narrowly above them); but 10th would be a hell of a result for a newly promoted side, so that's my fairly conservative early projection for them. Brighton, despite their strong start, just don't really impress me that much: I think they've been 'over-performing' so far, against mostly very weak opponents (Villa looked like relegation fodder in that opening game, and even Chelsea have an awful defence at the moment; they were lucky to come away with such a big win against Coventry, who actually created most of the game's best chances; and against Leeds, they were lucky to get a draw). They don't have a convincing No. 9 at the moment (unless Kostoulas, or the newly signed Promise David, can establish themselves as Premier League class; Giorginho Rutter is a 10, not a 9). And I worry that the need to rotate through their large squad (in order to keep up the resale value of fringe players) makes it difficult for them to establish consistency. (On the other hand, with Hinshelwood, Mitoma, and Minteh - three of their most dangerous players - still to return from injury, there is also a possibility that they could become even more of a handful later in the season...)

At the moment, Spurs look utterly abject. But they have somehow managed to grind out goalless draws in their last two games; and they do still have a very long injury-list of key players. So, the potential for massive improvement is clearly there; you'd think there's too much quality in that squad for them to remain in the relegation zone all season. But De Zerbi's tactical plan is just not working at the moment; in fact, it's failing so badly that he's managing to make top signings like Sandro Tonali and Matheus Fernandes look like terrible players. And already the Italian coach is looking exasperated, baffled, dispirited; I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him become one of the season's first managerial casualties. But just how early that might happen, and whether it would help or hinder Spurs's progress up the table is one of the great unknowns of the season. 12th might seem a rather optimistic finish for them at the moment (especially after they narrowly avoided relegation in the last two seasons); but if things start clicking for them, the quality in the squad is such that they ought to be capable of very much better than that - so, again, it's a bit of a compromise assessment, midway between the best and worst imaginable outcomes for them!

Sunderland haven't really strengthened their squad from last year, and will find the pressure of European football a drain on their stamina. They're still very robust defensively (and I think Roefs could again be a promising goalkeeper pick in FPL), but lack very much of an attacking threat. And for that difficult second season in the Premier League, finishing safely in lower mid-table would be a pretty satisfactory accomplishment. Forest are another enigma: they show a lot of promise under Glasner, and I have hopes for what Daniel Munoz might accomplish there as a wing-back; but it will take time for the new system to bed in, and at the moment Sels and his defenders are looking much less secure than they have in most of the past two seasons. Also, with Chris Wood evidently aging out, they don't have much up-front threat (though maybe Liam Delap will be the answer to that problem?); but this might mean that Gibbs-White and Ndoye have to step up as the primary goalscorers. Although Everton have started the season quite impressively, they have again conspicuously done nothing to strengthen themselves in the transfer window - while losing their best player, Illiman Ndiaye. Although Pickford and the very robust defence should be able to keep them out of relegation trouble, I can't see them having a consistent enough threat going forward to finish very much higher than that: while Thierno Barry has put away quite a few goals early in the season, he's also been profligate with some good chances; I just don't think his conversion rate is consistent enough to rely on him as a primary striker; and since they let Beto go to Fiorentina, they don't seem to have any back-up. 

Villa look to be in a world of trouble at the moment: they lost the core of the team over the summer, and haven't brought in that much in the way of convincing replacements: they'll really be needing an awful lot from Nico Jackson (and Manzambi and Madjo, when they get over their injuries). And even if those attacking talents can produce the goods for them, I worry they don't have the depth in the squad to endure the strain of a European campaign as well. Emery is a very shrewd manager; but this challenge may be beyond even him. And he is starting to look increasingly exasperated at this situation, as if he's reaching the end of his tether; I can envisage him resigning, or wilfully provoking his own dismissal with public complaints, before the mid-point of the season. With the quality they've shown over the last few years, you'd think they should be capable of at least reaching the top ten, and maybe even the top eight or the top six; but thus far, they've really looked like relegation candidates - and even placing them at 15th looks a bit hopeful.

Ipswich look shakey in defence, but might have enough attacking threat through the likes of Enciso, Fatawu, Maeda, Davis, and Flemming to haul themselves just clear of the relegation mire. I'm afraid Palace, after the progressive emasculation of their squad over the last few seasons, the loss of their inspirational manager, and now the early loss to injury of their two best goalscorers, are looking doomed to the drop - despite the talent of players like Wharton, Pino, and Richards. Fulham, too, despite having a lot of talent in their squad, just don't seem to be getting on with their new coach Arbeloa (another prime candidate for an early exit). And they don't have a convincing spearhead to their attack: neither Garcia nor Muniz look quite capable of taking on that mantle. 

Alas, poor Coventry! They do look like the one team you can safely bet on already to be back in the Championship next year. And I think most people had expected things to be very different: they won the title last season at a canter, and often played some thrilling attacking football that looked like it wouldn't be out of place in the top flight. But perhaps that led to some complacency: Hull and Ipswich not only spent big to radically rebuild their squads, they adapted their style of play to try to make themselves more resilient against better-class opposition; Coventry seemed to think they could essentially rely on more-of-the-same, and they have proved to be very, very wrong. Now, the loss of their star forward Haji Wright was a major blow; and he could give a big boost to their prospects if he can quickly return to his best (although he's expected to be out until at least late November; and by then it might already be too late). And to be fair, they have shown some signs of improvement, after two dreadful opening games: they nearly got something from their visit to The Etihad, and were really rather unlucky to end up on the end of such a drubbing from Brighton last weekend (their defence was abysmal, but their attack actually looked pretty dangerous). Another reason for many people's confidence in Coventry's prospects in the top division was the general affection and respect that Frank Lampard commands in the game: an intelligent man with extensive experience of the Premier League as both a player and manager, you'd think he ought to be capable of guiding a promoted club to a stable lower mid-table position in their opening season. But... at the moment, he's looking like he doesn't understand what's going wrong, doesn't know how to fix it: I fear he will soon be the overwhelming favourite for an early dismissal. But it's really too early to judge: for Coventry, and for most of the other teams, an awful lot could change between now and the end of the season - or even between now and the end of November (when I'll be checking in again to consider revising these assessments).

As for the players... 

Raya and the Arsenal defence are again looking likely to be the clean-sheet kings. But Raya and Gabriel are much too expensive this year for early season picks; and, as I said the other day, I don't see Konsa as (yet) being a secure enough starter to be worth taking just to save 1 million on the budget. Calafiori is so far the overwhelming best pick from the Arsenal defence; and until Timber comes back, I really don't think you need a second.  

For me, Trafford, Tzolakis, and Verbruggen are looking preferable picks between the sticks; Roefs hasn't shown much as yet, but I still have faith in his quality as a keeper, and in the doggedness of the defence in front of him. 

Gvardiol, Guehi, Tarkowski, and - slightly more surprisingly? - Kayode are looking much the strongest of the other defensive options; although we can all load up on Leeds and Hull defenders at the moment to save money (I plumped for Mendy and Bogle early on; one of my few decisions to really pay off so far!!). We haven't seen that much of him as yet, but Munoz was one of the best defensive picks of last year, and could be even more impactful this year, as Forest seem to be trying to play with more progressive - rather than primarily defensive - wing-backs. De Cuyper was probably only a good pick in the very short term (he might not keep that start on the wing for long; and Brighton had two soft fixtures in the opening four, but now face quite a long run of far tougher games). And the other defenders who've made an early splash with attacking contributions - Leif Davis, Tyrick Mitchell, Neco Williams, Timothy Castagne... and even Lewis Hall too - all seem likely to concede too many goals to be good FPL prospects this term.

Bruno Fernandes is again playing very well, and had that one monster game against Ipswich; but, for me, he's just too damned expensive this year (however good he is, he can't possibly be 1.5x as good as the next-best options!) - especially with United currently struggling for form. Saka and Palmer are showing signs of being very nearly back to their devastating best: but at the high price of 9.5 million, we can probably only afford one of them - and might consider trying to go without either. Odegaard, suddenly playing some of the best football of his life and looking like he could be a regular attacking threat in a dramatically rebranded Arsenal this year, is a very tempting alternative to Saka, as is the currently prolific Rogers to Palmer at Chelsea (although I observed yesterday that Rogers has in the past been prone to periods of quiet form, while Palmer, at his best, has been able to sustain high rates of return over very long periods - and is on penalties as well!). Gakpo has started very brightly, but is now injured. Mbeumo has returned decent points, but hasn't yet really lived up to his potential - as a primary goalscorer generously classified as a 'midfielder', playing for a team like United, that really ought to make him one of the hottest properties in FPL; but last season he did not fulfil that promise at all, and it's starting to look like he won't quite do so this year either. 

There's an enticing array of options in the middle and lower budget tiers this year. At Bournemouth, Tavernier has been in excellent form at the start of the season; and Kluivert is looking like he might be finally starting to get back to his best; but Rayan hasn't found his form yet (a big disappointment to me, as I'd gambled on him in my opening squad), and Scott, despite excellent form and good early points returns, isn't likely to be a regular producer of attacking returns. Cherki has looked very dangerous, but might not be secure in his minutes; I am still optimistic that Doku could prove to be the most reliable points-producer in the City midfield, but I start to lose faith a little as this 'minor' injury absence drags on and on; and Enzo Fernandez - looking likely to get regular starts (as he's evidently such a Maresca favourite) and play in quite an advanced role - is worth keeping an eye on too. Schade is in good goalscoring form at an irresistible price; and Gross, Stach, and Fulham's Josh King have also made great starts - representing outstanding value at the bottom end of the price spectrum (although I suspect Hinshelwood could displace all of them if he returns to a regular start). Manzambi is the newcomer to the league who I feel could have the biggest impact (although he might struggle at a Villa side who look in such poor shape at the moment); and his Swiss national teammate Okafor is a player that I fancy could well come into some hot goalscoring form at some point - my final two 'ones to watch' in midfield.

Up front, there's quite a conundrum as to how to juggle the selection. Haaland is again looking the likely front-runner and near-essential forward pick, but he is at a wince-making high price this year that is tempting many of the shrewder managers in the game to attempt to get by without him. Joao Pedro has started out super-hot, and looking as if he could perhaps sustain a challenge to Haaland for the Golden Boot. Isak, too, is finally starting to show signs of recovering his best form, after an entire season blighted by injuries; but the unconvincing form of Liverpool as a whole makes me slightly doubtful about getting him at this point - unless you're going without Haaland: he's clearly likely to be one of the three best forwards this year; but they're too expensive for you to splash the cash on getting all three of them. I'm sure Igor Thiago will come good at some point; and Havertz should really be getting some consideration, now that he's clearly displaced Gyokeres as Arteta's preferred central striker (still just shy of 8% ownership, presumably only because there are so many other Arsenal players people want!) - I fancy these will probably become the most popular 3rd forward picks sooner or later.

Among the cheaper forward options, Calvert-Lewin and Wissa are the early favourites (although I expressed some reservations above about whether we could rely on Dominic to remain fit and in-form for a long stretch); but I would fancy Will Osula even more, if he can soon return from injury (yet another one of my initial squad picks that quickly went wrong!!). And I can see McBurnie, Delap, Flemming or perhaps even Kostoulas (though I wouldn't count on him keeping the start for long) becoming popular options at the temptingly low 5.5-million price-point.