Early 26/27 predictions

I suppose it's time for me to again attempt some - rash, and undoubtedly wildly inaccurate - projections for where everyone's going to finish in the Premier League this year. The bold and the foolish, of course, dive in with a first set of prognostications before the season's even begun - but I won't expose myself to that kind of ridicule. I prefer an attempt at analysis, rather than mere hoping or guessing.

Analysis is difficult so early on, because we don't have an awful lot of information to go on: only four games in, and early-season form is notoriously erratic, unstable, ephemeral. And any form that might have appeared to be becoming fairly settled is likely to evaporate again over the huge international break which starts in a few days. 

And although we didn't have such a messy transfer window as last year (when several of the biggest signings weren't concluded until after the start of the season, and many players had 'gone on strike' to force moves, and arrived at their new clubs injured or woefully out of condition), we have had a very busy one, and integrating so many new arrivals at once - at individual clubs and across the league as a whole - can be very disruptive: it will take quite a while to see how many of the new boys become key elements of their squads, and how much that affects previous lineup selections, team tactics, and overall effectiveness. We haven't yet seen much of Barcola or Bouaddi or Guimaraes, and nothing at all of Manzambi or Caicedo or Baleba or Palestra - some of this year's biggest signings.

Moreover, although we have so far been extraordinarily blessed with the relatively low number of early injuries compared to recent years, there have still been a fair few: we're still without the likes of Mitoma, Minteh, and Hinshelwood, and Saliba, Kroupi, Mateta and Ismaila Sarr, Rodon, Bradley and Ekitike, Burn and Osula, Amad Diallo, Doku, and Maddison, Kulusevski, Odobert, Simons, Porro and Udogie - all of whom might have been of some FPL interest.

So, just a few weeks into the season, it's really all still a bit of a crap-shoot. We could just point to the current league ranking and say, 'Well, that's what the form indicates so far.' But of course, there wouldn't be much point to that. We have to try to extrapolate the underlying hints of the potential for sustained form over the season from this small sample of - mostly very inconsistent - results we've had so far. And we have to try to make allowance for the things that might have distorted some of those results: relative difficulty of fixtures (or the occasional 'freak result' in defiance of the expected fixture difficulty!), injury absences, slow adaptation to new tactical approaches (in addition to the record number of new signings this year, we've seen a very large number of managerial changes!), and unlucky sendings-off, bad refereeing decisions, etc.

So, here it is - my first fumbling attempt at a prediction of where everyone will finish in the Premier League this year. (As last year, I'll attempt follow-up revisions at around about the one-third and two-thirds points of the season as well.)  Unlike last year,... I'll throw in a few additional comments at the end about which players seem likely to have the biggest impacts this season, both real-world and in FPL.

As I said yesterday, Arsenal are the only one of the leading clubs who've started out in really commanding form, while their rivals are all stumbling around rather unconvincingly thus far - and so have to be the strong early favourites to retain the title. [Haha! I may have jinxed the defending champions - who just a few days later put in a throughly wretched performance away at Brighton and got absolutely spanked.] Manchester City are inevitably their biggest threat again. They would be for Haaland alone, but the additional attacking/creative threat posed by Doku, Cherki, Semenyo, Ndiaye, Foden, and Fernandez is also pretty terrifying. And I do believe Maresca is a very tactically canny coach who will usually be able to bring the best out of this extaordinary group of players. The big question-mark at the moment is their occasional flakiness in defence, and the less-than-confidence-inspiring form of Donnarumma in goal (his distribution has always been terrible, but even his shot-stopping and positioning have occasionally looked a bit questionable recently). Chelsea have started the season looking as if they might be even more dangerous than City in attack, but even flakier than them in defence (and Martinez really doesn't look to me like much of an upgrade on the unreliable Sanchez in goal). And they may not have the balance or depth in the squad to sustain a consistent challenge across the whole season - although the absence of any distracting European football should be a big help to them. Liverpool, so far, have been failing to adapt to Iraola's new requirements, and have looked as woefully inconsistent in defence as they were in their floundering season under Slot last year. But at least Isak is looking sharp again, and you feel they surely ought to have enough talent in the squad to finish securely in the Champions League places; though I do worry that Barcola could prove to be a colossal waste of money, that Van Dijk could be rapidly aging out, and that Wirtz is once again looking too physically puny to prosper in this league. Liverpool, then, are one of the biggest uncertainties of this season: they may have the class to finish a little better than this, maybe even to mount a challenge to Arsenal at the top; but, at the moment, predicting even a 4th place finish for them looks rather optimistic.

Although Bournemouth have been suffering thus far from an unfortunate propensity to drop points by leaking a late goal, I think they have shown some of the most impressive form we've seen from anyone this season. Evanilson and Rayan haven't found their scoring boots yet, but Tavernier and Scott have been in superb form, Kluivert finally looks as if he may be getting back to his best, and Kroupi could add further to their forward threat when he gets back from injury. My hunch is that they will ultimately prove to be stronger and more consistent opponents than our other two 'over-performing' mid-table favourites, Brentford and Brighton. Brentford, though, could run them very close: although Thiago hasn't hit scoring form yet, he's playing pretty well, and Schade is providing the goals instead; and Mamadou Sangaré, one of the most impressive of the league's new arrivals so far, is adding a steel to their midfield that they've lacked in the past.

Before the season, I'd fancied Manchester United to make a strong showing, and perhaps even emerge as - albeit distant and ultimately unsuccessful - challengers to Arsenal (they were, after all, the league's best team last year, after Carrick had taken over in January). However, they've had a really awful start to the new campaign, and are looking as if they might slip back to floundering in mid-table. A lack of stable selection in the back-four, a continuing failure of the front-three to gel, the continuing lack of trust in Sesko for a regular start at No. 9 (Cunha just does not like that role, and does not thrive in it), and the continuing absence of new midfield hard man Baleba have all been limiting their performances. As with Liverpool, this prediction for them is a bit of a 'compromise', and is likely to be way off - in either direction: they could do much better than this, if they manage to get their shit together; but they could also do much, much worse...

Newcastle have been worryingly inconsistent so far, but I like what Jaissle is doing with them, and I think they ultimately have a bit more quality, especially up front, than the rest of the upper mid-table contenders: Barnes, Wissa, and Elanga have the potential to become one of the most terrifying front-threes in the league. Leeds have started out the season very impresively, especially at the back (and I think Jamie Trafford might prove to be one of the most impactful signings of the season); but I have misgivings about how far you can rely on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to lead the line for you for a whole season (in good form at the moment: but in the past, he's shown himself to be both physically and psychologically brittle, picking up numerous injuries or just suddenly losing his confidence in front of goal). Hull I really, really like so far; and I don't think there's been any element of 'luck' about their impressive early run of results (if you're outperforming stats like your xGC, it's not luck - your defenders are making lots of great blocks, and your keeper's making lots of great saves). However, newcomers to the league usually get 'figured out' by their opponents, at least by the top clubs, sooner or later, or simply find it difficult to maintain the psychological intensity that's fired them up to make a strong start to the campaign. I'd like to see Hull sustain their early promise and challenge for the European places (I think they could well finish higher than these few teams I've placed narrowly above them); but 10th would be a hell of a result for a newly promoted side, so that's my fairly conservative early projection for them. Brighton, despite their strong start, just don't really impress me that much: I think they've been 'over-performing' so far, against mostly very weak opponents (Villa looked like relegation fodder in that opening game, and even Chelsea have an awful defence at the moment; they were lucky to come away with such a big win against Coventry, who actually created most of the game's best chances; and against Leeds, they were lucky to get a draw). They don't have a convincing No. 9 at the moment (unless Kostoulas, or the newly signed Promise David, can establish themselves as Premier League class; Giorginho Rutter is a 10, not a 9). And I worry that the need to rotate through their large squad (in order to keep up the resale value of fringe players) makes it difficult for them to establish consistency. (On the other hand, with Hinshelwood, Mitoma, and Minteh - three of their most dangerous players - still to return from injury, there is also a possibility that they could become even more of a handful later in the season... [And it does look like I maybe haven't been giving them their due so far. Their dismantling of League leaders Arsenal a few days later was indeed very impressive - even though Arsenal didn't really show up for the game.])

At the moment, Spurs look utterly abject. But they have somehow managed to grind out goalless draws in their last two games; and they do still have a very long injury-list of key players. So, the potential for massive improvement is clearly there; you'd think there's too much quality in that squad for them to remain in the relegation zone all season. But De Zerbi's tactical plan is just not working at the moment; in fact, it's failing so badly that he's managing to make top signings like Sandro Tonali and Matheus Fernandes look like terrible players. And already the Italian coach is looking exasperated, baffled, dispirited; I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him become one of the season's first managerial casualties. But just how early that might happen, and whether it would help or hinder Spurs's progress up the table is one of the great unknowns of the season. 12th might seem a rather optimistic finish for them at the moment (especially after they narrowly avoided relegation in the last two seasons); but if things start clicking for them, the quality in the squad is such that they ought to be capable of very much better than that - so, again, it's a bit of a compromise assessment, midway between the best and worst imaginable outcomes for them!

Sunderland haven't really strengthened their squad from last year, and will find the pressure of European football a drain on their stamina. They're still very robust defensively (and I think Roefs could again be a promising goalkeeper pick in FPL), but lack very much of an attacking threat. And for that difficult second season in the Premier League, finishing safely in lower mid-table would be a pretty satisfactory accomplishment. Forest are another enigma: they show a lot of promise under Glasner, and I have hopes for what Daniel Munoz might accomplish there as a wing-back; but it will take time for the new system to bed in, and at the moment Sels and his defenders are looking much less secure than they have in most of the past two seasons. Also, with Chris Wood evidently aging out, they don't have much up-front threat (though maybe Liam Delap will be the answer to that problem?); but this might mean that Gibbs-White and Ndoye have to step up as the primary goalscorers. Although Everton have started the season quite impressively, they have again conspicuously done nothing to strengthen themselves in the transfer window - while losing their best player, Illiman Ndiaye. Although Pickford and the very robust defence should be able to keep them out of relegation trouble, I can't see them having a consistent enough threat going forward to finish very much higher than that: while Thierno Barry has put away quite a few goals early in the season, he's also been profligate with some good chances; I just don't think his conversion rate is consistent enough to rely on him as a primary striker; and since they let Beto go to Fiorentina, they don't seem to have any back-up. 

Villa look to be in a world of trouble at the moment: they lost the core of the team over the summer, and haven't brought in that much in the way of convincing replacements: they'll really be needing an awful lot from Nico Jackson (and Manzambi and Madjo, when they get over their injuries). And even if those attacking talents can produce the goods for them, I worry they don't have the depth in the squad to endure the strain of a European campaign as well. Emery is a very shrewd manager; but this challenge may be beyond even him. And he is starting to look increasingly exasperated at this situation, as if he's reaching the end of his tether; I can envisage him resigning, or wilfully provoking his own dismissal with public complaints, before the mid-point of the season. With the quality they've shown over the last few years, you'd think they should be capable of at least reaching the top ten, and maybe even the top eight or the top six; but thus far, they've really looked like relegation candidates - and even placing them at 15th looks a bit hopeful.

Ipswich look shakey in defence, but might have enough attacking threat through the likes of Enciso, Fatawu, Maeda, Davis, and Flemming to haul themselves just clear of the relegation mire. I'm afraid Palace, after the progressive emasculation of their squad over the last few seasons, the loss of their inspirational manager, and now the early loss to injury of their two best goalscorers, are looking doomed to the drop - despite the talent of players like Wharton, Pino, and Richards. Fulham, too, despite having a lot of talent in their squad, just don't seem to be getting on with their new coach Arbeloa (another prime candidate for an early exit). And they don't have a convincing spearhead to their attack: neither Garcia nor Muniz look quite capable of taking on that mantle. 

Alas, poor Coventry! They do look like the one team you can safely bet on already to be back in the Championship next year. And I think most people had expected things to be very different: they won the title last season at a canter, and often played some thrilling attacking football that looked like it wouldn't be out of place in the top flight. But perhaps that led to some complacency: Hull and Ipswich not only spent big to radically rebuild their squads, they adapted their style of play to try to make themselves more resilient against better-class opposition; Coventry seemed to think they could essentially rely on more-of-the-same, and they have proved to be very, very wrong. Now, the loss of their star forward Haji Wright was a major blow; and he could give a big boost to their prospects if he can quickly return to his best (although he's expected to be out until at least late November; and by then it might already be too late). And to be fair, they have shown some signs of improvement, after two dreadful opening games: they nearly got something from their visit to The Etihad, and were really rather unlucky to end up on the end of such a drubbing from Brighton last weekend (their defence was abysmal, but their attack actually looked pretty dangerous). Another reason for many people's confidence in Coventry's prospects in the top division was the general affection and respect that Frank Lampard commands in the game: an intelligent man with extensive experience of the Premier League as both a player and manager, you'd think he ought to be capable of guiding a promoted club to a stable lower mid-table position in their opening season. But... at the moment, he's looking like he doesn't understand what's going wrong, doesn't know how to fix it: I fear he will soon be the overwhelming favourite for an early dismissal. But it's really too early to judge: for Coventry, and for most of the other teams, an awful lot could change between now and the end of the season - or even between now and the end of November (when I'll be checking in again to consider revising these assessments).

As for the players... 

Raya and the Arsenal defence are again looking likely to be the clean-sheet kings. But Raya and Gabriel are much too expensive this year for early season picks; and, as I said the other day, I don't see Konsa as (yet) being a secure enough starter to be worth taking just to save 1 million on the budget. Calafiori is so far the overwhelming best pick from the Arsenal defence; and until Timber comes back, I really don't think you need a second.  

For me, Trafford, Tzolakis, and Verbruggen are looking preferable picks between the sticks; Roefs hasn't shown much as yet, but I still have faith in his quality as a keeper, and in the doggedness of the defence in front of him. 

Gvardiol, Guehi, Tarkowski, and - slightly more surprisingly? - Kayode are looking much the strongest of the other defensive options; although we can all load up on Leeds and Hull defenders at the moment to save money (I plumped for Mendy and Bogle early on; one of my few decisions to really pay off so far!!). We haven't seen that much of him as yet, but Munoz was one of the best defensive picks of last year, and could be even more impactful this year, as Forest seem to be trying to play with more progressive - rather than primarily defensive - wing-backs. De Cuyper was probably only a good pick in the very short term (he might not keep that start on the wing for long; and Brighton had two soft fixtures in the opening four, but now face quite a long run of far tougher games). And the other defenders who've made an early splash with attacking contributions - Leif Davis, Tyrick Mitchell, Neco Williams, Timothy Castagne... and even Lewis Hall too - all seem likely to concede too many goals to be good FPL prospects this term.

Bruno Fernandes is again playing very well, and had that one monster game against Ipswich; but, for me, he's just too damned expensive this year (however good he is, he can't possibly be 1.5x as good as the next-best options!) - especially with United currently struggling for form. Saka and Palmer are showing signs of being very nearly back to their devastating best: but at the high price of 9.5 million, we can probably only afford one of them - and might consider trying to go without either. Odegaard, suddenly playing some of the best football of his life and looking like he could be a regular attacking threat in a dramatically rebranded Arsenal this year, is a very tempting alternative to Saka, as is the currently prolific Rogers to Palmer at Chelsea (although I observed yesterday that Rogers has in the past been prone to periods of quiet form, while Palmer, at his best, has been able to sustain high rates of return over very long periods - and is on penalties as well!). Gakpo has started very brightly, but is now injured. Mbeumo has returned decent points, but hasn't yet really lived up to his potential - as a primary goalscorer generously classified as a 'midfielder', playing for a team like United, that really ought to make him one of the hottest properties in FPL; but last season he did not fulfil that promise, and I worry that it's starting to look like he won't quite do so this year either. 

There's an enticing array of options in the middle and lower budget tiers this year. At Bournemouth, Tavernier has been in excellent form at the start of the season; and Kluivert is looking like he might be finally starting to get back to his best; but Rayan hasn't found his form yet (a big disappointment to me, as I'd gambled on him in my opening squad), and Scott, despite excellent form and good early points returns, isn't likely to be a regular producer of attacking returns. Cherki has looked very dangerous, but might not be secure in his minutes; I am still optimistic that Doku could prove to be the most reliable points-producer in the City midfield, but I start to lose faith a little as this 'minor' injury absence drags on and on; and Enzo Fernandez - looking likely to get regular starts (as he's evidently such a Maresca favourite) and play in quite an advanced role - is worth keeping an eye on too. Schade is in good goalscoring form at an irresistible price; and Gross, Stach, and Fulham's Josh King have also made great starts - representing outstanding value at the bottom end of the price spectrum (although I suspect Hinshelwood could displace all of them if he returns to a regular start). Manzambi is the newcomer to the league who I feel could have the biggest impact (although he might struggle at a Villa side who look in such poor shape at the moment); and his Swiss national teammate Okafor is a player that I fancy could well come into some hot goalscoring form at some point - my final two 'ones to watch' in midfield.

Up front, there's quite a conundrum as to how to juggle the selection. Haaland is again looking the likely front-runner and near-essential forward pick, but he is at a wince-making high price this year that is tempting many of the shrewder managers in the game to attempt to get by without him. Joao Pedro has started out super-hot, and looking as if he could perhaps sustain a challenge to Haaland for the Golden Boot. Isak, too, is finally starting to show signs of recovering his best form, after an entire season blighted by injuries; but the unconvincing form of Liverpool as a whole makes me slightly doubtful about getting him at this point - unless you're going without Haaland: he's clearly likely to be one of the three best forwards this year; but they're too expensive for you to splash the cash on getting all three of them. I'm sure Igor Thiago will come good at some point; and Havertz should really be getting some consideration, now that he's clearly displaced Gyokeres as Arteta's preferred central striker (still just shy of 8% ownership, presumably only because there are so many other Arsenal players people want!) - I fancy these will probably become the most popular 3rd forward picks sooner or later.

Among the cheaper forward options, Calvert-Lewin and Wissa are the early favourites (although I expressed some reservations above about whether we could rely on Dominic to remain fit and in-form for a long stretch); but I would fancy Will Osula even more, if he can soon return from injury (yet another one of my initial squad picks that quickly went wrong!!). And I can see McBurnie, Delap, Flemming or perhaps even Kostoulas (though I wouldn't count on him keeping the start for long) becoming popular options at the temptingly low 5.5-million price-point.

"It's Arsenal's to lose"....?

 

That's what everybody seems to be saying,... after Arsenal's relentless start to the new season: 4 straight - and relatively comfortable - wins, 8 goals scored, only 1 conceded.

A title defence - particularly after a first title victory following a long, long drought - is usually the 'difficult second album' of the football world, a very challenging thing to pull off successfully. And I confess I had been very sceptical about Arsenal's prospects over the summer. I wasn't impressed by their summer transfer business. I was dreading another season of the dour 'anti-football' which had won them their success last year. I fretted that Arteta's extreme conservatism would shackle them to a more-of-the-same approach - which, this time, at least some of their rivals would surely find a better counter to.

But in fact Mikel seems to have accepted that, against the increasingly effective deployment of 'hybrid marking'/low-block defensive schemes, it has become essential to look more to individual creativity to unlock openings in the final third. (There may be an element too of the referees' tightening up on wrestling in the box meaning that the set-piece route to goals that he relied upon so heavily last season is just not going to work nearly as well this year.)  Arsenal, much to almost everyone's surprise and delight (not least their own fans'!!), appear to be playing a much less cautious, more expansive style of football this year; goals from open play once more appear to be flowing in fairly freely for them. And, after a couple of seasons blighted by injuries - as well as by Arteta's over-anxious strictures about never giving the ball away - we've suddenly seen both Odegaard and Saka revitalised, playing some of the most thrilling and dangerous football of their careers.

So, yes, things are looking very promising for Arsenal at the moment.

And the odds on them claiming a second successive title are very much improved by how poorly their rivals have started the season. Chelsea are scoring for fun, but conceding very nearly as many through a porous defence; City are still struggling to adapt to the new Maresca regime; Liverpool have been even more inconsistent and disappointing; Manchester United are currently looking as though they might start floundering in mid-table again; while Villa, reeling from the loss of several of their best players, look as though they might plummet all the way to the relegation end of the table.

Some of these, at least, should rally sooner or later, and clearly have the player talent to cause Arsenal some problems. And one or two 'dark horses' could also emerge on the fringes of the top-of-the-table scrap: Bournemouth and Brighton have shown a lot of promise in the opening games.

But at the moment, yes, Arsenal are looking very, very good - head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field.

It's a long old season, and much could change. I wouldn't yet be placing a bet on Arsenal winning at a canter; they could yet suffer a collapse of some sort, at least for a portion of the season. And I would expect City and Chelsea, certainly, and maybe Liverpool, to be able to mount some sort of a challenge. But for now, Arsenal are very strong favourites.

[I'll try to put out an extensive discussion of where everyone's going to finish tomorrow.]

Worthy winners?

Arsenal, I would say, came out as worthy but dull winners of the Premier League title this year. 

And I'm not at all an Arsenal 'hater'. In fact, I have quite a soft spot for the club - primarily because they often played such lovely football during the peak Wenger era. I suspect that a large part of the widespread antipathy - or at least, lack of enthusiasm - for Arsenal's win this year stems from the starkness of that contrast. Arsenal suffered a long period without major 'success' in Wenger's later years; but they still played some of the most attractive football in the Premier League. This year they've returned to the top of the heap - without entertaining anyone. Compared to the great Wenger teams - heck, even compared to this team two or three years ago - this year's Arsenal were often just painful to watch.

And also, frankly, they did win the title somewhat by default. Their final total of 85 points is the lowest for the champions since Leicester's surprise everyone-else-was-crap-that-year win in 2016; in some recent years that might not even have been good enough for second place. And their haul of just 71 goals - barely two-thirds of the record total City set in 2018 - is really pitiful. All of their expected rivals - City, Liverpool, and Chelsea - had severely disappointing seasons; that was a huge factor in their success.

These are introvertible facts. But I don't want to be completely dismissive of their achievement. They have deserved their success. They have shown tremendous organisation, determination, team spirit. It has been impressive to see how often they were able to doggedly grind out results, even in games where they hadn't played that well; that kind of resilience is a true hallmark of champions. (And they did often seem to play much brighter, more adventurous football in their Champions League games!)

But there have been a lot of negative aspects to the way Arsenal have played this season, which have alienated most neutral football fans from them, and rather taken the gloss off their triumph. For me, it's not the over-reliance on mauling at set-pieces (or the undue tolerance referees have been showing them in regard to this), or the numerous other 'dark arts' they've cultivated to try to eat time off the clock, or the fact that in general the officiating breaks seem to have been almost all going their way this year - irksome as these things have been, I do not think these are most people's main 'problem' with the Arsenal title win; they're not my main gripe, anyway. Rather, it's the general style of play, the Arteta philosophy that's so unsatisfying about this year's Arsenal - the excessive prioritization of 'control' which seems to stifle individual creativity. 

Odegaard - when he has played - has increasingly been getting stick from his own fans for passing the ball sideways too often and not producing as many attacking contributions as in the past; but that's obviously how he's been told to play. Saka has suffered the same sort of drop-off in his attacking output; and when he, or Trossard or Eze or Martinelli, do occasionally cut inside and have a pop at goal from around the edge of the box,.... you sense that they're impulsively 'going off script', and that Mikel doesn't really like it,... even if it's saved him the game.

It is alarming to me, too, that the Champions tend to set the zeitgeist that will mould the rest of the league's attitudes in coming seasons. In a year in which defences have mostly been decisively on top, and attacking returns constrained (it didn't help that so many of the best creative talents were missing for most of the season), almost every club has moved more towards prioritizing set-piece routines as the likeliest source of goals; and, with PGMOL being so lax about curbing the amount of wrestling that this leads to in and around the six-yard box, most of them have lapsed into this sort of cheating and thuggery on occasion too. All this isn't entirely Arsenal's fault; but it is to a significant extent - they have set the tone, set the example, and they've now proven that it can be a key to success. There is now a danger that we will see even more of this sort of thing next season, as a result. These misgivings about the possible future impact of the manner of Arsenal's title win has rather tarnished the achievement. 

I hope that these issues can be sorted out next season. We need a few more players like Cherki (and Palmer and Wirtz... and Eze!) to prove that defence-defence-defence is not the way forward, to open our game up again to more end-to-end attacking play. [The problem with the primacy of defensive play at the moment is threefold. First, teams have got so good at implementing 'hybrid marking' systems, and defending in a low block around the edge of their own penalty areas that it is very difficult for opponents who enjoy a lot of possession to create open-play chances against them. Second, this is leading many teams to almost 'give up' on pursuing traditional creativity, and to cultivate long-ball football and set-piece shenanigans as the likelier route to goals. And third, some of the more dominant teams may be tempted to follow Arsenal's example and give more priority to 'defending with the ball', concentrating on not making mistakes and hanging on to possession for long periods - rather than attacking.]

Arsenal have shown formidable tenacity, consistency, and defensive solidity this year - and that's what won them the title. But they won it with a notable lack of flair. And the possible legacy of this win, in terms of how it may shape Premier League football over the next year or two, is a cause for concern.

 That is why, Arsenal fans, the majority of neutral supporters feel unable to join in your celebrations; it's not because we hate you, it's because we love football.

The year's predictions - reviewed

                     1st  Arsenal         3rd    2nd 2nd +1

    2nd Manchester City         4th 1st 1st -1

    3rd Manchester United         14th 13th 3rd =

    4th Aston Villa         16th 9th 6th +2

    5th Liverpool         2nd 6th 5th =

    6th Bournemouth         7th 4th 8th +2

    7th Sunderland         17th 10th 10th +3

    8th Brighton         13th 8th 14th +6

    9th Brentford         12th 12th 7th -2

    10th Chelsea         1st 3rd 4th -6

    11th Fulham         15th 15th 11th =

    12th Newcastle         6th 7th 9th -3

    13th Everton         8th 16th 12th -1

    14th Leeds         20th 19th 15th +1

    15th Crystal Palace         10th 5th 13th -2

    16th Nottingham Forest         9th 14th 17th +1

    17th Tottenham Hotspur         5th 11th 16th -1

    18th West Ham         19th 18th 18th =

    19th Burnley         18th 17th 19th =

                           20th Wolves         11th 19th 20th  =

So, this is a summary of the predictions I made over the course of this season as to where everybody would end up. The first batch were made in mid-September, four weeks into the new season. My second attempt to see the future was made at the one-third point, just as we entered December. And the final version was undertaken at the two-thirds point, straight after Gameweek 26 in early February. [The final figure in red shows how far the actual final position differed from my last forecast in February.]

As you can see, by February, things had settled down somewhat, and it was becoming easier to see, in most cases, where teams were going to end up (despite the extreme closeness of the mid-table battle throughout most of the season - which meant that some teams could still have risen or fallen quite some distance even on the final weekend). The great majority of my predictions then were within 1 or 2 places of the team's actual league finish, and I got Manchester United, Liverpool, and - strangely - Fulham exactly right, as well as the bottom three. But of course, that didn't take much doing... My initial predictions at the start of the season, and even at the beginning of December were wildly off in many cases!

At the beginning of the year, I'd thought Manchester City might struggle with their 'rebuild' even more than Liverpool (and that looked quite prescient for a while, as they did get off to a pretty rocky start). But as they started to get their shit together around the middle of the season, and we started to see the potential of Doku and Cherki more regularly, I remained cautiously optimistic that they had the quality to overhaul Arsenal's significant points-lead on them. (I counselled at the turn of the year that it was likely to remain a very close race until the end of the season, and that it would be rash to assume that either of the two front-runners was a clear favourite [although, just five or six weeks later, I was forced to concede that Arsenal may have got decisively on top...]; ultimately, it was City faltering at the death rather than Arsenal finishing especially strongly [well, that, and the unfortunate VAR farce in the final minute at West Ham in GW36!] which clinched the championship.) I maintained that optimism - though with decreasing confidence! - until the last weeks, and ultimately proved to be wrong.

I had begun the year by anticipating that United, under the disastrous Ruben Amorim, could well finish down in the bottom third again; and I think that might well have been the case, if they'd stuck with that failing manager any longer. But the Carrick transformation in January was immediate and dramatic, and I'm pleased that I was so quick to appreciate that, and to start backing them for a much higher finish.

Liverpool, despite their 'rebuild' difficulties, I had expected to be almost as good as last year, and to probably be somewhere in the title conversation again; but I fairly quickly assessed their true level, as the season quickly unravelled for them. (Perspective is important: they had a terrible season, by their high standards - and still finished 5th!!)

I suppose Chelsea was my most embarrassing misjudgement. After their superb performance in last summer's Club World Cup, I was prepared to back them - admittedly somewhat optimistically - as possible title-winners. That fell apart immediately, with long-term injuries for Colwill and Palmer, and Maresca losing his way with his tactics in the Premier League. But there were signs of a possible resurgence initially under Liam Rosenior (remember when everyone was bringing Joao Pedro into their FPL squads around the turn of the year - and the likes of Enzo Fernandez, Cole Palmer, and Marc Cucurella too?); alas, that all fell apart very quickly as well, and Chelsea ended up having nearly as bad a season as Spurs. Now, Spurs were another team I got all wrong. I had quite liked some of their signings. I thought the strength of their backline was a solid foundation for a strong campaign. I thought Frank might suit them better than Postecoglou. I thought Maddison and Simons and Solanke and Richarlison might have big seasons. But everyone got injured - and Thomas Frank proved to be an utter disaster: they ended up doing even worse than last year, and only escaped relegation by the skin of their teeth. I had recognised how much trouble they were in by mid-season, but even in February, I didn't anticipate that they'd plunge right down into the relegation places.

Villa were the other team I got badly wrong at the start of the year: I thought they'd over-performed the previous season, and that without any major new signings over the summer, they were likely to have a big struggle this year. I wasn't entirely wrong; they did have some major fluctuations in form, and Ollie Watkins failed to find his scoring boots for most of the season; but Emery again proved shrewd at wringing the most out of his limited resources. Having rather harshly suggested at the start that Villa might plunge into the bottom third, I progressively revised my expectations for them upward - but even late on, I didn't anticipate them getting up into 4th place. Sunderland were the other team who most strongly out-performed my original expectations for them: I had thought they would struggle to escape relegation, but I soon saw that they were much the best of this year's promoted sides and would probably survive quite comfortably, even rising into the mid-table - though I never foresaw that they would claw their way as high as 7th by the end.

The Three B's, Bournemouth, Brentford, and Brighton, all had somewhat up-and-down seasons which made it particularly difficult for anyone to guess where they might end up - although my predictions homed in on them pretty well. Bournemouth ended up slightly over-performing my expectations, and Brentford slightly under-performing them. But Brighton had such a yo-yo year, they kept catching me out: they had looked so bad in mid-season, I was imagining a bottom-third finish - but they managed to rally again. The same went for Fulham and Newcastle and Everton: a lack of consistency made it impossible to pin down a confident final prediction for them, but I ended up not too far off. Fulham ended up doing rather better than I'd initially expected - mainly thanks to that superb run of form Harry Wilson went on from around the middle of the season. Everton failed to capitalise on their strong start, but ended up doing not too badly - largely thanks to another superb season from Jordan Pickford (who seems to be hogging all of this year's 'Most Spectacular Saves' roundups, again). And I kept thinking that Eddie Howe was going to pull off the mid-season rally that he'd managed with Newcastle the previous year, and that Anthony Gordon was finally going to rediscover his form of the previous year - but somehow, it just never quite happened: another one of my big misses in these predictions!

Leeds I had initially expected to be possibly the weakest of the promoted sides, and they didn't do much to dispel that assessment in the early part of the season; and indeed, their great revival didn't start until December, just after I'd made the second of these sets of predictions; however, by February, I could appreciate the difference in them and was feeling confident they'd now stay up fairly comfortably.

Palace and Forest and Wolves were three teams I'd expected much better from; not surprisingly, after the way they'd finished the previous season. Wolves seemed to have such a good rapport with Vitor Pereira that I thought they'd be strong again this year, despite having lost some big players (they're a selling club: they lose their best players every year, and they've always seemed to be able to bounce back); I couldn't understand quite how they'd unravelled so badly - but as soon as that unravelling became apparent, I accepted the inevitable, that the start of the season had been so bad, they were effectively relegated before Christmas. Forest were undone by a shortage of new signings last summer to help them with their European campaign, some unfortunate injury problems (notably the loss of their talismanic striker, Chris Wood), and of course their owner's perverse decision to sack the manager who'd done so well with them the year before.... and to replace him with the disastrous Postecoglou... and then to have to replace him as well. At least they rallied well again at the end of the season. Palace I'd fancied to be able to withstand the loss of Eze, and to be able to finish comfortably mid-table again; and indeed they started so brightly that. a few months in, I was starting to think they could even nip into the last Champions League spot; but, alas, things progressively fell apart for them after that, with a raft of injuries and the mid-season departure of Guehi to City. Again, I had the measure of them by the start of February.

Burnley I had pegged as plucky-but-doomed, right from the get-go. West Ham too: I felt they'd only luckily, undeservedly escaped relegation in the last few years, and hadn't done anything to strengthen their squad this time; surely, at least one of the promoted sides would this time be good enough to put them in jeopardy - and so it proved.

So, not perfect crystal ball work, by any means - but not too bad. I am reasonably happy with these pronouncements. Let's see if I can do even better next season!

[And sorry, I have no idea what's gone wrong with the formatting up above. It displays as all neatly aligned in Blogger's supposedly WYSIWYG 'compose' screen, but keeps on getting scrambled when posted. Aaarrgh....]