Sheep Picks (19)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Well, gosh, yes, it's 10 weeks or so since I last did one of these; and (nothing personal, Arsenal fans!) the last one was.... Ebere Eze!

This week's entry in the series should be very short and sweet. Naturally enough, folks in FPL-land get a bit excited when the league leaders get an early double gameweek, and want to make sure they are loaded up on their players for it. But.... everyone should really have had three Arsenal players already.

And if you were going to change one of your Arsenal selections, or bring in an extra one, especially for this Double Gameweek 26,... these are absolutely the last two I would have chosen! And yet, and yet,.... my oldest friend, and chief antagonist in FPL - who is, frankly, a bit of a klutz at the game - has just bought both of them. And he's not alone: apart from the obviously popular defenders, Gabriel and Timber (who didn't own them already?!), Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyokeres have been among the most popular Arsenal acquisitions. Zubimendi was transferred in over 400,000 times in the last couple of days, more than doubling his ownership; Gyokeres has gained closer to 500,000 new owners!

Martin Zubimendi is a fine player. And I actually feel that his absence - if he should get injured - would be more disastrous to Arsenal's title hopes than any other player's. But that doesn't mean he's worth having for FPL. Yes, he just picked up a fine pair of goals in his last two league outings, but... goals for a central defensive midfielder are a rare treat, not a reliable asset; he's probably already exceeded his quota for the season., and should not be expected to get any more in this double-fixture. Assists? Even less likely: only one - aberrant - example so far. Even more frustratingly for those pinning their hopes on him, he's not even that much of a magnet for the handy new 'defensive points'; in fact, he's one of those who almost always comes up short of the threshold for them, regularly puts in a decent shift but is only accorded 6, 7, 8 'defensive contributions', well short of the required match total of 12 such involvements. He's only actually won 'defensive points' 3 or 4 times so far this season; so, again, it's a bit of a long shot that he'll contribute to your points total that way. He is, at least, almost certain to start both games (though, who knows the mind of Mikel; maybe he'll give Damsgaard a runout in one of them?); but he's also almost certain to be the lowest points-scorer among all Arsenal players who do play in both games. And he is, thus, an absolutely bonkers FPL pick.

Viktor Gyokeres is a marginally less unfathomable choice, because at least he's a primary goalscorer (though, ahem, not as regular as Zubimendi in the last two games!), and he has shown signs in the past month or so of recovering some of his confidence in front of goal. However, he is ridiculously expensive at 8.8 million quid; when there are other forwards like Thiago, Ektike, and recently Joao Pedro, who look in much better form... for less money, it's pretty difficult to justify getting him in even for a short-term sell-and-buy-back, just to try to exploit this week's double-fixture. Moreover, he's not even a certain starter: good as he's looked in the last few games, Jesus and Havertz have arguably looked even better; and Arteta does like to rotate quite a lot in the attacking positions - so, I'd say it's rather uncertain that any of the forward roster will start in both games.

Gabriel is, obviously, well out in front as Arsenal's most promising points-provider. Timber is probably the next best option (any of the defenders would be, if they could be counted on to start: but only Timber has been an ever-present of late - even Saliba has had a few injury issues, and isn't as much of an attacking threat); and then Rice. If you have three Arsenal players (though that's always risky, even with such a pre-eminent club), those should have been the three. If you didn't, the one you brought in should have been one of these three. (Raya is a guaranteed starter, and has a good chance of at least one clean sheet from two games against weaker opponents; but that's true of his defenders too, and they have some chance of picking up 'defensive points' and/or bonus points too,... and maybe even an attacking contribution [though that is not to be relied upon, even from an aerial monster like Gabi!]; Raya is very, very rarely kept busy enough to earn 'saves' points - or bonus points, unless a game ends in a goalless draw! - so his 'points ceiling' is basically capped at 6 per game, he's very, very unlikely to be able to outscore his defenders.)

And if I were going to try something different for this double gameweek, fancying the chance of at least one more free-scoring performance from this notoriously constipated Arsenal side in what should be a pair of relatively undemanding fixtures (though no opponent should be underestimated: Brentford's form has been really impressive of late, and Wolves can create some attacking danger, especially through the very lively youngster Mané, even if they're still often very flakey at the back), I would go for an attacking midfielder - most probably Madueke (who has been the most regular starter lately, and in the best form; even if Saka is 'fit' again, I doubt if he'll be rushed back into starting action; and even if he is, I think Madueke would keep his start, and be moved over to the left flank), though a case might also be made for Trossard, or perhaps even Eze (who hasn't been a prolific provider for Arsenal, but might get two starts, if Odegaard is unavailable), or Martinelli (who has been on a bit of a scoring streak just lately, and might be worth having a punt on, even if he's only used as a super-sub!).

But Gyokeres and Zubimendi - are you kidding me??????