This year's EARLY 'Sheep Picks'

I often express my dismay and disappointment that so many FPL managers rush in for the same players - 'sheep picks' based on herd instinct, just following a fad rather than formulating a rationale of one's own.

As I outlined in my annual survey of the pre-season selection landscape over the past couple of days (Pt. 1: Goalkeepers and Defenders, Pt. 2: Midfielders and Forwards), we have an unusually broad selection of tempting options this year, with probably at least 80-100 players worthy some consideration for the initial squad. 

Given that breadth of choice, no-one should be above 50% ownership (there are strong arguments to be made against the premium options in each position category: Haaland, Fernandes, Gabriel, and Raya), and really only a handful should be much above 10%. And yet... currently, 16 players have been selected by more than 20% of managers, and a further 27 have more than 10% ownership; and many of these are not the players who should be the most selected! In the online environment today, people assume that what a lot of other people seem to be doing must be right; when, as often as not, it's quite the reverse.

When I saw the snapshot above of the currently 'most selected' starting eleven, I thought to myself: 'If you have more than 3 or 4 of those, you're being severely unimaginative. If you have more than about 6, you're probably not going to do very well.'

The 2026-27 Pre-Season 'Sheep Picks'

Oh, where to start?? There are so many this year!!

As I reasoned last week, there is a strong - just about overwhelming - case for Haaland, whatever his price, because his points-potential is so much higher than any other forward's. But in that same post I argued that Bruno Fernandes and Gabriel (and David Raya too) are simply too expensive. They had exceptional seasons last year, and it would be unrealistic to suppose that they can produce similar or greater returns this year; on the contrary, there are good reasons to expect that their points totals this time will be substantially lower. They might indeed start the season very strongly, they might well again be the top points-returners in their positions, their owners are unlikely to be dissatisfied with them; but they won't do quite as well as last year - and hence, even if they do claim the top of their position rankings again, the gap to the next best isn't likely to be all that much. You pay a big premium for a player to gain a substantial differential advantage, an expectation of a sizeable points-lift over their closest position rival; Haaland always offers that - the other three don't. These premium-price players are just about 'affordable', but probably only at the cost of going a bit light somewhere else in your squad. And it just doesn't seem worth it - when there are keepers 1-million pounds cheaper than Raya, defenders 2.5-3.0-million pounds cheaper than Gabriel, and midfielders 5.0-6.0-million pounds cheaper than Bruno Fernandes.... who might do very nearly as well.

[And even with Haaland, there is an argument that one might wait-and-see on him for a week or two. As he returned to training so late this year, he's unlikely to be fully sharp straight away, and might get quite short minutes in the first few games.]

Joao Pedro is a justifiable forward choice - but not such an obviously superior option as to merit more-than-60% ownership! Managers are getting a bit carried away by his glut of goals in pre-season. It's always nice for strikers to get their confidence up by finding the net regularly; but pre-season form rarely carries over into the start of the regular season (your granny could probably score a goal in some of these half-pace practice games). For me, he's probably going to be a little way behind Alexander Isak and Igor Thiago as the most consistent 2nd forward pick, after Haaland.

Antoine Semenyo is a player I appreciate in the real world, but am lukewarm about in Fantasy: his returns tend to be a bit up-and-down; and he often plays well without producing any FPL points. And with City currently looking so flakey in their Maresca transition period, I'd probably avoid any of their players - maybe even Haaland?! - for a few weeks until things start settling down for them. And I feel he was operating near the top of his envelope last time; he's another one like Bruno Fernandes who isn't likely to improve on last year's total, and might well come up quite a bit short of it. Also like Bruno - and Declan Rice - he was somewhat flattered by the dearth of points from other midfielders last year; even with a similar points total, he might be well outside the Top 5 midfield points-returners this season. Also, although 8.5-million isn't a particularly high price, it is this year in relative terms - because so few players have been given a high price this time: only 3 midfield players are more expensive than Semenyo, and no-one else is priced with him in the 8.5 tier; there are 9 players priced 0.5 or 1.0 million cheaper; and there are nearly 60 more players priced from 1.5-2.5 million cheaper - several of whom you might fancy to do nearly as well as Semenyo this time, if not a little better. (And of course, when they're that much cheaper, they don't actually have to do better than him to be preferable picks.)

Pedro Porro and Riccardo Calafiori always excite us with their attacking threat; and they almost invariably disappoint our early optimism about them. The new-look Spurs will probably take a while to find their feet, so I'm wary of taking any of their players from the start of the season. (The same argument, of course, applies to Antonin Kinsky and Martin Dubravka, currently the second and third most popular goalkeeper picks; as I mentioned yesterday, they are an appealingly cheap pairing - but it's almost always worth paying that half a million extra for a pair of starting keepers; and people who've gone for non-playing Dubravka without Kinsky ahead of him.... are just pissing 4-million quid away for nothing.)  Calafiori, as well as being worryingly injury-prone, seems to drift in and out of favour with Arteta. Timber, due back in training any day now, might well be preferred to him immediately at left-back (and indeed, Hincapie sometimes was last season); and they've just acquired Konsa as an additional option at right-back. I'm a big fan of Calafiori; but I'm not convinced that Arteta is, and I'm not confident he'll get a long run of starts. Luke Shaw is another super-popular defensive pick at the moment, presumably because he's so generously priced at 4.5 million. But his age, his injury record, and the fact that the club have been trying to buy a replacement for him this summer all counsel caution; I wouldn't be suprised to see Dalot or Mazraoui starting ahead of him at left-back. (While De Ligt and Martinez are out of commission, it seems likely that Ayden Heaven will be starting alongside Maguire in the opening games; he could be an attractive alternative for a cheap representative in the United defence.)

Virgil Van Dijk... is getting old. He was often looking so slow and erratic last season that there was a serious danger he might be dropped - or would have been, if Liverpool had any cover in central defence! He only ended up with a good overall points total because of his exceptionally good attacking returns, not his defensive performance; and that really was a bit of a freak, far more than he'd managed in any previous season (and such melee goals from set-pieces are likely to be much less common this season, as refs tighten up on grappling in the box, and defences get better at reading the set routines). Liverpool will probably be quite defensively solid most of the time, and keep a decent number of clean sheets; and Virgil will probably do quite well on the 'defcon' points, when opponents do manage to put them under a bit of pressure. But I'd expect his points return this time to be a fairly middling 140-160 - simply not worth that huge 6.5-million price-tag.

I said yesterday in my review of the forward options that the sudden enthusiasm for Dominic Calvert-Lewin is quite baffling. He had one moderately good (not brilliant) and mostly (not entirely) injury-free season last year - for the first-time ever. There's no compelling reason to assume he can pull that off again; and even if he can, he's not that strong a pick, even in his price category; in fact, I'd rate him towards the bottom of the 6-million-pound forward options. When a player who doesn't merit a 5% ownership is up nearer 30%, the odour of sheep-shit is heavy in the air.

I like Morgan Rogers as a player; but as an FPL asset, he's severely unconvincing. He's posted decent - but not outstanding - season totals over his two years at Villa; but those seasons were both characterised by a few brief bursts of high-scoring and long runs of blanks. It's not obvious how he'll fit into the set-up at Chelsea (I'd like to see Enzo Fernandez leave, to 'make room' for him), and he might not immediately be a regular starter; and even if he is, he'll probably take a little while to settle in. If we're only going for one Chelsea midfielder,.... it's likely to be Palmer that claims that spot.

At the moment, with City looking so disorganised at the back in the Community Shield last weekend, and there being so much uncertainty about the preferred defensive lineup under the new manager, we really shouldn't be taking any of their defenders in the initial squad. Nico O'Reilly hasn't looked in great form since the end of last season, and is quite likely to be displaced at left-back by fit-again Josko Gvardiol; but if he isn't, Gvardiol will surely play instead in the centre-back pair, at the expense of Marc Guehi. And yet, by some strange logic, O'Reilly and Guehi are currently the most popular defensive picks from City, with massive ownership levels. Until we know that they are regular starters - and that City aren't going to leak goals every week, like they just did in Cardiff - they shouldn't be in anybody's squad!

Declan Rice has nearly 20% ownership, young Greek winger Christos Tzolis is at 19%, and newly signed defender Ezri Konsa is at 16% and on the rise. This is presumably a response to how formidable Arsenal looked in the Community Shield this year. But Rice didn't make much impact in that game (having come on at half-time for a limping Guimaraes), and after carrying an injury all summer and looking seriously fatigued for England, he seems likely to be out of action or given rationed minutes for at least the first game or two; and anyway, his rate of returns, though fairly consistent, just isn't high enough to warrant long-term inclusion in an FPL squad (it was only that consistency that got him such a high final ranking last year, that and the fact that all of the leading creative/goalscoring midfielders had horrible seasons; he was rarely in the Top 5, or even the Top 10 midfielders over any short run of games; and I think he's unlikely to be in the Top 10 overall at the end of this season). Tzolis has looked very lively in pre-season, but there's no guarantee that that form will translate into Premier League performance; indeed, there's no guarantee that he'll be an immediate or invariable starter (it's a concern to me that the left-wing position is the only slot in the Arsenal team that isn't nailed-down to an obvious first-choice starter - and thus has to be used to give token minutes to all of the back-up players, just enough to keep them 'happy'; not just the specialist wingers, Martinelli and Madueke, but also Jesus and Eze, and even perhaps Havertz or Guimaraes, on occasion; thus, even if Tzolis does immediately get the nod as the preferred starter there, I can't see him playing every week). And folks are now getting very excited about Konsa being a 'cheap route' into the Arsenal defence!!  But is he going to start - ever??? I can't see how; he looks like back-up to the back-up to me. He's only a makeshift right-back, and he doesn't look nearly as good as Mosquera at centre-back (or as good as White or Calafiori or Timber, who can also play that position). And Bruno Guimaraes, likewise, is surely destined to be a back-up rather than a regular starter. He's got excellent value as a utility player, versatile enough to deputise ably for Rice, Zubimendi, or Odegaard - but he's not actually better than any of those three in their particular roles. (Many Arsenal fans have grown disgruntled with Odegaard in the past couple of seasons, and were assuming that Bruno would immediately displace him. That never seemed likely to me, since Odegaard is very tight with Arteta, and plays a crucial role in organising the implementation of his coach's tactical instructions on the pitch; in that, he's probably become pretty much irreplaceable - at least in Arteta's eyes - even if his performance-level had tanked; but he was clearly back to his very best in the Community Shield - so Bruno is surely going to be bench-warming as soon as Rice is fully fit again.)

Illiman Ndiaye is another player I really like, but he had a pretty underwhelming season last year, in large part because David Moyes kept shunting him around to different positions, rather than regularly starting him in his preferred left-wing slot; and also, perhaps, because there was no regular - or reliable - forward playing in front of him. I don't see that changing this year. In fact, I rather fear that Everton 'over-performed' last year, and might slump into relegation trouble again this time. There are a lot of good midfield options at 6.0-million this year, and Ndiaye doesn't really look to be the most promising of them.

Issa Diop and Milan van Ewijk are way out in front as the most popular 'budget' defender options. But if you go without one or more of the premium picks, it shouldn't be difficult to find an extra half million to spend on your 5th defender - so that you can actually get someone decent,... rather than someone who's likely to ship 80-100 goals over the season!! Even if you do insist on having a 4.0-million-pound player to stretch your budget, I'd rather have Coventry's Bobby Thomas.

Meanwhile, Pascal Gross and Enzo Le Fée are the two most popular 'budget' midfielders - why? There are so many more tempting (and also temptingly cheap) midfielders at Brighton alone! Gross is now 35, and has surely been reacquired more for dressing-room 'influence' than for regular starts. Le Fée is a decent player, but there are at least half a dozen other options in that price-bracket who should be getting more attention.

So, good grief, that's at least two-thirds of the Top 30 or so current picks who are at least rather dubious, if not outright bonkers choices!!!

To Semenyo, or not to Semenyo....?

 

I've been having a bit of a schizophrenic experience with Antoine Semenyo this year. Although I've been a huge fan of his ability for a long time, and have been impressed by the strides he'd made over the past couple of years at Bournemouth, I still had reservations about him as an FPL asset (principally that he was so streaky: scoring heavily in short spells, but then having long dry runs - and seeming to be too easily eclipsed by other in-form players at the club: there were periods last season when he took a backseat not just to Kluivert and Tavernier, but even to Ouattara, Evanilson, and Brooks...). Those reservations, allied with misgivings about how well Bournemouth's form could hold up in the wake of having lost most of last year's stellar defence, deterred me from picking him in my initial squad. His very hot start to the season would soon compel a change of heart. But then, round about GW8 or 9, I grew disillusioned, suspecting that his early hot streak had run its course (one of the few 'prescient' calls I've correctly made this season!), and offloaded him again earlier than most. Ah, and then..... I was impressed that he was still playing very well, and regularly threatening goals, even during the long drought that followed the opening seven games, and took a chance on bringing him back again, just a little before he started finding the net once more.

And then... I prepared to offload him again as soon as his threatened transfer away from Bournemouth materialised. There seemed to be a chance that he might transfer out of the League altogether. And if he stayed in England, he'd surely only go to one of the top few clubs - where he couldn't be expected to enjoy a regular start.

I felt particular trepidation when City suddenly emerged as the favourites to land him (Liverpool and Arsenal seemed to have been the likelier destinations in earlier speculations; and Chelsea would have been my dream move for him - both for what he might have done to improve the team, and for himself having reasonable prospects of finding an immediate and regular start): Pep often takes weeks to train a player up in 'his' way of playing before he'll give him a regular start in the team. Even worse, he regularly blows hot and cold on whether he even likes wide attackers: neither Savinho nor Bobb, nor even Doku - who's been superb when he has played - has enjoyed regular starts this year. I was indeed a little afraid that Semenyo's pace and strength and finishing ability might pigeonhole him in Pep's mind more as a central striker option - and hence a rarely used understudy to Haaland.

But, lordy, lordy, he was thrown straight into the fray as a starter, without having to endure a month-long tactical indoctrination. Indeed, he started two games in succession, and provided attacking contributions in both! FPL managers who'd held on to him over the brief transfer saga this month are starting to feel pretty smug; and around 185,000 new owners have already come in for him over the past week-and-a-bit.

However, I would still sound a note of caution on his City prospects. These two games he just played were Cup ties - and they really don't have much bearing these days on how a club will approach its League fixtures. I think every single Premier League club - even those drawn against top-tier opponents - fielded their back-up keeper and at least 3 or 4 outfield rotations from their usual 'first-choice' line-up for the FA Cup 3rd Round. The mere fact that Semenyo started in both of these games really means little or nothing in terms of his likely status in Pep's pecking-order.

Moreover, Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (who's probably now more likely to be considered for a role as a winger, if he gets a look-in at all) have been away at AFCON, Bobb and Savinho are injured, and Doku's just back from an injury and perhaps still getting 'managed minutes' for medical reasons. So, Semenyo probably got this quick start more because of a lack of competition for the place than because he's immediately become Pep's new favourite.

If he starts regularly, and if he plays as well as he just did in these two Cup games, and if he forges a productive rapport with the great Haaland - then, yes, Antoine Semenyo could be one of the top-performing FPL 'midfielders' for the second half of the season.

But that's quite a lot of 'ifs'. Just about no-one at City (well, Donnarumma and most of the defence when they're all fit, Rodri if he's fully fit again, and of course Haaland - but no-one else) can be expected to enjoy an invariable start. And even very occasional benchings can be extremely disruptive to the form and confidence of a player who's become used to being an ever-present.

For me, Semenyo is a wait-and-see. If you have him already, obviously you'll hang on to him for a few more gameweeks. But if you don't, there are probably more important transfers to be considering for the next week or two. My feeling is that it's currently a bit of a 50/50 as to whether he'll turn out to be the star of the season or the flop of the season from here on. I very much hope it's going to be the former; but I wouldn't put any money on that just yet.