A good rotation pair beats a premium keeper

Every year in FPL we see a lot of naive managers going for a super-expensive goalkeeper - perhaps just because he's famous and plays for a big club, perhaps because they've noticed he got a really good season total last year - maybe even the top goalkeeper score.

Alas, that means nothing for FPL! There's a very tight spread of prices in that position category, and also usually a pretty tight spread of points at the top end of the performance table. Hence, there's no differential value in a premium keeper. There's no point spending that extra money when someone 0.5 or 1.0 million cheaper (occasionally even 1.5 million cheaper, if there's a 6.0 million premium option) could get you very nearly as many points (while allowing you a substantial upgrade in one or two other positions, where the extra money spent would buy you more points).

Moreover, to try to compensate for this rash overspend (and because they're so confident that their main man can and will start every game, and never suffer a knock or a dip in form or a run of tough fixtures....) they go for a shit back-up - perhaps even a non-starter - to save money.

And yet still they very often end up spending 9.0 or 9.5 or 10.0, or sometimes even a staggering 10.5 million pounds on this ill-matched pair of keepers (which is really only ONE keeper) - when you can always buy a really good pair for 4.5 million each!

Now, OK, the best 4.5-million-pound pick might not outscore the premium options over the season (but sometimes they do; and they usually get pretty close!). But goalkeepers (and defenders) almost invariably do significantly better when playing at home. They also, of course, do significantly better playing against the promoted sides and other teams in very poor form. And all of them (yes, even those premium picks) can take a pasting from a hot goalscoring side.

You can easily find a list of the clubs which are matched for home and away fixtures (it's usually pretty obvious: it's arranged to ease the burden of policing, so nearby clubs don't play at home in the same gameweek). Here's the EPL list for the current season:  https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4045136

Though I wouldn't follow that too slavishly. I find picking and choosing your keepers' opponents is far more important than always pursuing the often tenuous 'home advantage'.

Rotating a pair of mid-priced goalkeepers effectively around their fixtures is worth at least an extra 20-30 points per season. (And you almost never find the top-returning premium keeper beating the best mid-price keeper by that much of a margin. Moreover, you always have guaranteed back-up in the position, where people taking a chance on a non-playing second choice will probably end up suffering a few nul-point goalkeeper returns.)

Choosing a good pair of cheaper goalkeepers will actually get you more points than a set-and-forget premium - and it can save you money.