Luck-o-Meter (1)

 

After last week's two extended essays on how we experience luck in FPL, and what effect it has on ranking results,..... I thought I'd initiate a series of weekly round-ups, trying to assess just how lucky or unlucky each Gameweek has been (not just for me - but in general!).

And we've got off to a pretty poor start - with a plethora of dubious or just downright bad refereeing decisions.

Red cards - given, or not given - are a relatively rare event, and can have a massive influence on game outcomes (and hence on the earning of FPL points from all players involved in the game where the incident occurs); they are thus one of the largest elements of luck in the game. And this weekend there were 4 red-card incidents - which is a lot.

Ashley Young's sending-off might have seemed slightly harsh, but was justified on a strict reading of the relevant rules - and probably didn't greatly affect the game outcome anyway, since Everton were struggling to have any impact in the match (although it might be argued that Brighton might not have scored quite so many goals against full-strength opponents).

Schar's sending-off was unjust, and had a massive impact on the course of the game. He was foolish to get involved in an altercation like that, but there was clearly no 'headbutt' - he didn't move his head towards Brereton-Diaz. And VAR should have been able to overturn that, or at least direct the refereee to view it again pitchside and reconsider; it is baffling that that didn't happen. If that red card were to stand, Brereton-Diaz should have been dismissed as well; either as being equally culpable for initiating the confrontation, and leaning into Schar to create the forehead-to-forehead touch as much as Schar did.... or via an immediate second yellow card for his play-acting. That would have been a fairer resolution of the incident, and would not have limited Newcastle's success in the game so severely.

This is THE BIG INCIDENT of the Gameweek for FPL, since many managers will have had high-owned players like Isak and Gordon (or perhaps Bruno Guimaraes), who.... at home, against a newly-promoted side, could reasonably have been expected to achieve a comfortable win and perhaps obtain large Fantasy points hauls..... but not when playing with 10 men for most of the game.

Perhaps equally significant might have been the incomprehensible failure to dismiss Ipswich defender Wes Burns for a blatantly intentional handball after he'd already been booked for an earlier foul. Liverpool against 10 men might well have gone on a rampage, and picked up many more points for Salah and Jota.... and perhaps for other attack-minded players too, like Diaz, Szoboszlai or Gakpo.

Other high-owned players to suffer from poor refereeing were Palmer (who surely should have had two penalties; the incident where Savinho just piled through the back of Enzo at the edge of his own box was 100% clearcut; but again, VAR declined to suggest a pitchside review - bizarre), and Eze, denied a 'Goal of the Month' contender from his free-kick because of a rookie ref's ridiculously premature whistle (for a 'foul' that very obviously wasn't a foul anyway; Collins just fell over, hoping to con him!). Both of these also missed out on 'assists' through fairly tight offside calls - so, owners of these two players can feel particularly aggrieved that the 'Luck' swing-o-meter was lurching heavily against them this week.

What vexes me most about the Crystal Palace incident was the VAR team's renouncing of responsibility on the unconvincing grounds that the ref's whistle had blown before the ball crossed the line. If it did, it was only a matter of 10ths, or even perhaps just 100ths of a second before; and, of course, the exact timing of a whistle can't readily be measured because it is heard at different times depending how far away from it you are (on the TV coverage, it appeared to happen pretty much exactly as the ball clipped off the inside of the post - so, perhaps mere nanoseconds before it crossed the line to become a goal). Whenever the whistle was deemed to have sounded - just before the ball crossed the line, just after, or while it was doing so.... -  shouldn't make any difference, since what is material in incidents like this is whether the whistle had any impact on the play (did the defending side 'stop playing' because they heard it?); here, clearly NO - Eze had caught the entire Brentford side by surprise with the quick free-kick, and his shot had already passed them all. So, any sensible application of the rules would allow for VAR - or the referee himself - to walk that decision back. (And if the referee immediately realised that he'd made a mistake, not just to blow the whistle so early, but to blow it at all - because it wasn't a foul - he should at least have allowed the free-kick to be retaken. But perhaps he didn't realise his second error at the time, only the first one - that the unfortunate timing of his whistle was 'preventing' VAR from helping him to review his decision on the supposed foul.)

If even one of Chelsea's penalty shouts had been given, they might have nicked a win off City - as they came back into the game more and more strongly in the second half. Likewise, Palace's game at Brentford might have turned out completely differently if their early breakthrough had been allowed to stand (and they hadn't then immediately conceded on a quick counter while still reeling from the shock of that monumental snafu). So, as with the Newcastle and Ipswich sending-off incidents, the refereeing in these two games potentially had massive consequences for FPL points this week.

Team selections can also sometimes be seen as rather lucky/unlucky.  Quansah's sudden withdrawal at half-time was a hard blow for anyone that owned him (though it might be said that his starting at all was a little bit of a surprise, and so perhaps 'lucky' already). And Valentin Barco's failure even to get minutes off the bench - when he had looked good in pre-season, and was widely considered a favourite to start for Brighton at left-back - was a bitter disappointment to many more. (His ownership had surged to a huge 23.7% - though probably the great majority of those will only have had him on the bench. Even so, they may now feel a need to offload him urgently, as he seeems not to have Hurzeler's confidence; and having to use a transfer so early to move out a speculative squad-filler has a cost of its own. If you take  gambles like this, you must expect to be unlucky with them sometimes; but it is still unlucky.)

And only 3 or 4 of this week's 'Team of the Week' were among the highest-owned players; so, everyone who happened to have one or more of the others can count themselves very lucky as well.

Anyone who went for Palmer or Eze (or Isak or Gordon.... or, of course, Schar!) this weekend was very hard done by.  While anyone who went for Salah or Jota or Saka or Havertz was rewarded a little more richly than might might have been reasonably anticipated.  And given that Isak and Gordon and Eze and Palmer were probably four of the most popular alternatives to Salah for the captaincy this week, the impact of their misfortune for their FPL owners is all the greater. And anyone who went for a keeper or defender from Southampton or Ipswich or Brentford or - especially! - City received an undeserved windfall.   It is a capricious game, to be sure.

Poor refereeing calls that massively transform the outcome of a game ought not to happen at all. We have to accept that they sometimes will; but they really ought not to happen more than a handful of times a year. So,.... to get FOUR instances of this on the opening weekend is a freakish instance of LUCK... and a very poor omen for how this season is going to unfold. I think we've started with pretty much a 10 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter. (And I very much fear the dial might go up to 11 once or twice before the end of the season!)