Live and learn... (Or not!)

Someone on the FPL forums last week was interested in whether a player could play twice in the same gameweek for different clubs - effectively getting a unique, one-person double gameweek by virtue of having completed a transfer mid-gameweek and immediately turning out for his new club in their later fixture within the same batch of games. 

Now, I can't ever recall such a thing happening in the 33 previous seasons of the English Premier League; but it does seem as if it should be theoretically possible.

In practice, though, it seems as if it would be extraordinarily unlikely. These days, clubs typically drop a player - even from training, let alone competitive matches - once they're the subject of a transfer negotiation. This is because, if they've accepted that they're almost certainly going to lose the player, they're now more focused on what they can do with the money they can make from selling him, and will be reluctant to jeopardise a move through the risk of a last-minute injury. There may, of course, also often be doubts about a player's level of motivation or general focus on his game if he's determined to move on. And the buying club may reasonably expect, if not insist that the player is not risked in a match while the transfer deal is being finalised.

So, it's very, very, very rare for a player to play for his old club shortly before signing for a new one. But.... it just happened with Antoine Semenyo - who scored an injury-time winner for Bournemouth against Spurs last Wednesday evening, and was then announced as a Manchester City player barely 12 hours later on Thursday morning.

Ah, but it's also very, very, very rare for a player to play immediately for his new club, particularly within a matter of a day or two; there hasn't been time to get up to speed with the new team's tactics, or to build any rapport with teammates; they might only have been able to participate in one or two full training sessions - just not enough time to bed them in. And you might think that this would be especially the case at a club like City, where Pep sometimes takes weeks inculcating 'his way' of playing in a new signing before he'll consider giving him a regular start.

But again, Antoine Semenyo just played immediately for City, only two days after his transfer to them was confirmed. Of course, that wasn't a League game. But this instance again suggests that playing for two teams in the same gameweek could conceivably occur... once in a blue moon.

However, I believe players have to be registered with the League by noon on the day before their first eligible match for a new club - which adds a further layer of impracticality. Moreover, the League's offices don't usually 'work' on the weekends (this is why this year's transfer window is extended to Monday 2nd February), making it even more difficult to 'complete' a transfer and have a player eligible to play for a new club within the tight timeline of a single gameweek - although we do occasionally get a gameweek with a game scheduled on a Tuesday, after a roster of games mostly played over the preceding weekend, so it could still be possible. 

Of course, we also have occasional double gameweeks where some clubs are playing twice within a few days; this would extend the narrow window of opportunity for a player to complete a mid-gameweek transfer - well, except that such double gameweeks never occur during the early-season or mid-season transfer windows!

Not many regular gameweeks are spread over more than 3 or 4 days (although we did have one last season stretched over nearly 2 weeks due to a winter 'mini-break'). But, in this recent case, if Bournemouth's match had been on the Tuesday evening, and City's on the Thursday, Semenyo's registration could have been completed in time for him to play for both clubs.

It seems like this is the only way that this eventuality could come about: a slightly extended and/or midweek gameweek, at least one weekday between the two different clubs' fixtures in that gameweek, and a player confirming a transfer and getting it registered with the League the morning after the first of those two games. That is a very unlikely combination of circumstances, and I rather doubt if it will ever happen.

But.... if it should, there doesn't seem to be any logical reason why FPL would refuse to acknowledge a transfer that the League has accepted as valid, and refuse to record the points the player scores in his first game for the new club.

And yet, I have seen it suggested by a couple of people on those forums that there is supposedly an obscure 'rule' denying a player the right to score points for different clubs in a single gameweek. 

I say 'obscure' because I have never even come across a reference to or discussion of this supposed rule; and it certainly isn't included in the main 'Rules' of the game displayed on the FPL website, which I've screenshotted above. (Although these rules are excessively concise, and in some respects just very badly written - unclear, potentially ambiguous on a few points. And I wouldn't be surprised if there is an 'expanded version' of the rules hidden away online somewhere...)  [An aside: Why, oh why is something as important as the Rules of the Game hidden under the 'Help' tab rather than being given a tab of its own??]

And of course, these two bods on the forums, having no idea of how sourcing accurate information from the Internet actually works, omitted to provide a URL link to where they had found this information (one of them at least screenshotted the article in question; but with no indication of where it had come from, and it appeared to be only a paraphrase/illustrative example rather than a direct citation of the original text of the supposed rule).

I've had a bit of a rummage around online myself, but still haven't been able to come up with any definitive answer to this conundrum. It would seem curmudgeonly, unreasonable, nonsensical of FPL to craft a special rule to deal with such a wildly unlikely circumstance - but some folks out there are convinced that they have done so. I will try to investigate the issue further.

The window opens....

In addition to the escalating vagaries of form, the horrible winter weather and the sudden accumulation of injuries and suspensions in December, and the insane domestic fixture congestion we suffer at this time of year (when just about every other league in Europe is sensibly enjoying an extended break), we now have an additional layer of disruption due to the mid-season transfer window opening.

It began for the Premier League (and most of the other leagues worldwide) on 1st January, and - because the month ends on a weekend this year - the final deadline is 7pm, UK time, on Monday, 2nd February. A few of the European leagues have a little bit longer; Switzerland has a whopping two extra weeks. Clubs playing in European competitions have a few further days - up until midnight on Thursday 7th February - to submit any squad revisions to UEFA. 

At the moment, the best summary of all the details of how this works appears to be on Chelsea's website.

Fantasy Football Scout usually runs the best regular update page on all the moves; but of course, there's nothing confirmed yet.

It will be interesting to see if any Premier League clubs can radically shift their form and fortune with some handy acquisitions this month. Villa did some good business this time last year, getting Asensio, Malen, and Rashford in on loan for the second half of the season. Given how thin their squad now looks, after an absence of any major transfer activity in the summer, they could really do with some more of that this time. Burnley might also be looking to bring in a few new players to try to salvage their hopes of survival - although I feel a new manager is more needful for them. Palace, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Manchester United, and of course Forest and West Ham are also in conspicuous need of some strengthening.

For some clubs, though, the impacts of this window are going to be mainly negative - key players lured away from them. I really hope Antoine Semenyo will see out the season at Bournemouth; it would be a huge loss for them if he leaves. (And it will ruin his value in FPL for the rest of us, if he goes to City or Liverpool or Arsenal, to sit on the bench most of the time...)

'Buying success' is the end of football...

The phenomenon in the modern game that saddens me most is the increasing tendency from just about all managers nowadays to seek to solve problems and improve their team's performances simply by buying new players, to 'spend their way out of trouble'.

Partly, of course, this has been happening because, since the advent of pay-per-view television, the game has become awash with more money than it knows what to do with. And also, in the past couple of decades, statistical analysis has been given more and more weight, so that managers now get tempted to think that the 'numbers' reveal very slight and subtle benefits that might be derived from one player rather than another. And hence, for example, if you're worried that you're conceding a few too many goals because your left full-back occasionally gets done by a pacey winger, you could 'fix' that flaw by dropping 50 million euros on a quicker full-back, or one who's a bit better against someone taking him on one-to-one.

But of course, there are other things you could do. You could give your vulnerable full-back some specific coaching on dealing better with these dangerous one-on-ones; or you could remember to hold him in a deeper position when he's up against a quick opponent, and/or assign another player to give him back-up on that marking assignment. There is an immediate tactical or coaching 'solution' to the issue, and it might work out better than buying an expensive new player for the role.

When the supposed 'statistical advantage' is so slight, and based on such a flimsy sample size - perhaps just a handful of incidents in a handful of games, each of which may have been in some way untypical, anyway - it may easily prove to be illusory. Trying to deal wtih the problem now, with your available resources, surely makes more sense than taking a punt on trying to fit a completely new peg into this awkwardly shaped tactical hole. Your new boy might indeed be a speed-demon and adept at nicking the ball off a crafty dribbler - but what about his crossing, his tackling, his positional sense, his workrate, his professionalism, his mental toughness, his competitive mentality? Some of the things that are going to make the biggest difference to your team dynamic are essentially 'intangibles' - matters of personality and character rather than just skill and athleticism - and the stats aren't going to be of any help to you there. Also, of course, it's going to take a while for anyone new to get up to speed on your tactical approach and to bond with his new teammates. Even if he is - in theory - much, much better than the player he's displacing,... in all probability, he won't be for at least a couple of months.

But, for me, the risk of overestimating a new player, being misled by statistics as to his overall abilities or just not anticipating how he would fit into your team - or fail to - for other reasons beyond his core 'skill profile', is less important than the cost of constantly discarding players for some supposed minor shortcoming, even after they've made some outstanding contributions to your club, perhaps over a number of years. When you suddenly ditch players who've played well for you - to replace them with someone supposedly slightly better - you risk damaging the spirit in the dressing-room and the whole ethos of the club. All players start to feel less secure in their tenure - and hence less loyal to the manager and the club, and perhaps they might thus also become a little less sharp in their competitiveness. Fans, too, are often shocked and disappointed to see a popular player suddenly depart. And that adds unwelcome extra pressure on his successor to prove himself to a sceptical fanbase. 

For younger players, this kind of snub can be especially dispiriting - and perhaps a fatal setback to their career development. And it may be particularly short-sighted of the clubs to mistreat their rising stars like this, because if they continue to give these players regular minutes, big game experience, show trust in them by giving them key responsibilities on the pitch, and perhaps by sticking with them through a spell of shakey form - they can become hugely better players, and so command a much higher transfer fee in a year or two's time. And if they've come up through your Academy system, or were purchased at a young age for a fairly low price, that's almost all pure profit; one or two nice deals like that can put your PSR worries to bed for a good long while. (Perhaps I have an unduly romantic notion of how much showing trust in a player can boost their confidence and ability? It is possible, I suppose, that I am a little too much influenced by a management sim I played a lot in the early Noughties, in which this was the big secret of the game: if you gave players a run of regular starts, in games where they'd mostly win, and including some high-profile fixtures,.... their self-belief apparently soared; and with that, their overall consistency and dependability as well as their ratings on key playing attributes would soar very quickly as well. Reserves or youth team players could grow into formidable assets within a couple of months, and become potential international stars within a year or two. The effect may not be quite so dramatic in real life - but I'm sure it exists.)

If a player has chosen to leave, or is obviously not adequate to his role at the top level, then fair enough: we accept the necessity of the change, and we're all eager to see how the new man will do. But most of the time these days, this does not seem to be the case; a player who was at least perfectly adequate, if not pretty good in his role, suddenly gets canned for a new signing - who is often not an obvious improvement. And a key thing that this hard-nosed approach to trying to buy marginal advantages (which sometimes fail to materialize anyway!) overlooks is that a football club is not just about football; it's about continuity and community, it's about the bond that develops between players, staff, and fans - over an extended period of time (even expanding over generations into the distant past; it'a about history). People want to see players grow and change over time, they want to see promising youngsters stay at their club and develop a mature career there. They don't really want to see a revolving door of 'big names' trotting through their club for a year - or two or three - before looking for a bigger move.

This might seem a quaintly 'old-fashioned' view now, I fear. Yes, I did grow up in the era of Brian Clough and Peter Taylor. And their distinctive genius lay in being able to take a bunch of apparent 'journeymen' players and find a balance in the team that tapped into unsuspected synergies. Individually, very few of their players looked like world-beaters, especially in the earlier days at Derby and Forest; but collectively their teams always managed to be far stronger than the sum of their component parts would suggest was possible. I worry that this knack - one of the great arts of football management - has now been largely lost. Most modern managers, rather than thinking, "How can I get the best out of these players?" seem to ask instead, "Which of these players can I change for someone else?" (Of course, Brian and Peter weren't spoiled by that 'luxury': in their day money was tight, and most clubs rarely made more than two or three transfers per year.)

Now, every season, we seem to see multiple examples of this change for change's sake, changes just because we can afford it. I am a huge fan of Cody Gakpo (he's been a mainstay of my international Fantasy teams in the last few tournaments); but was he really a necessary purchase for Liverpool? Is he really better than Luis Diaz? Well, it's invidious and futile to make direct comparisons between great players; they each have unique attributes, different strengths. But I think Diaz's tireless enthusiasm, his workrate in the press, and his willingness to hold the width when needed, rather than always look to drift into his preferred inside-forward space, meant that he was absolutely tailor-made for Klopp's Liverpool; and Slot's Liverpool have not so far been all that different in their style of attack. But they let Diaz go? I was very sad to see that. And now there's a danger that Gakpo himself might get forced back to the sidelines by the arrival of Ekitike and Isak...

I am a huge fan of Bryan Mbeumo and Mateus Cunha as well. But Manchester United really didn't need them. Amad Diallo and Bruno Fernandes are tailor-made for Ruben Amorim's 'joint 10s' roles, and had started to look very impressive in them last season. Admittedly, Mbeumo and Cunha could also play as a central forward - although neither of them really likes that, they both prefer to start out wide and drift into the inside-forward area (which is not really what the Amorim system is looking for....). Again, this seemed to be a case of just blindly throwing money at a 'problem', hoping that bringing in new super-talented players, glamorous big-name signings would be a magic cure-all for a broken tactical system.

Is Jeremie Frimpong a better right-back than Conor Bradley? NO - don't make me laugh. He's presumably been bought primarily for his attacking potential as a wing-back; but damn, Bradley isn't bad in the final third either. There might be some doubts about the young Irishman's experience or injury-proneness, but he looks plenty good enough to hold down the 'No. 1' spot in that position, and they could have looked for a back-up to him,... rather than relegating him to occasional-rotation limbo for however many more years.

Is Riccardo Calafiori better than Myles Lewis-Skelly? Well, maybe; but not by much. And surely the homegrown youngster deserves the chance to develop further, after making such an impressive debut last season? Admittedly, Calafiori was probably bought before Lewis-Skelly's potential was recognised, and when all their other left-backs seemed to be perpetually injured. But most Arsenal fans I know feel the start ought to be Myles's to lose, after last season, and that the Italian should be the back-up. Jakub Kiwior was quite hard done-by too; no, he's not a great player, but he had done a perfectly decent job of filling in whenever needed in both central defence and at left-back - he might not be stellar, but he was plenty good enough.

Is Rayan Ait-Nouri a better left-back than Nico O'Reilly? Well, yes - probably. But is he better enough to make a big difference? That I'm not so sure about. And like Lewis-Skelly, surely O'Reilly did well enough last season to deserve further opportunities in the role this year? I know a lot of City fans feel that way.

Is Gianluigi Donnarumma better than Stefan Ortega or Jamie Trafford? Well, yes, I suppose so - he's widely regarded as the best goalkeeper in the world. But is he so far their superior that he's bound to make a substantial difference to City's prospects in the Premier League? I don't think so. And it's the treatment of Stefan Ortega that really bothers me. The guy has waited patiently for his chance to be promoted to first choice for the last three years, and has been superb whenever he has been called upon. Now, when Ederson wants to leave, he suddenly suffers in rapid succession the double insult of first being replaced by a kid who still has a lot of rough edges on his game, and then by a 'big name' from the continent - who maybe isn't that much better than him. Loyalty matters. Loyalty matters ethically; but it also pays practical dividends. Fans want and expect to see loyalty to their club being recognised and rewarded. Players expect that too; and they respond very powerfully to it. If Ortega had been elevated to the starting place he deserved this season, he would have been the most emotionally engaged keeper in the league - super-passionate, super-revved-up for every single game. That additional level of motivation is worth far more than any slight marginal advantage in a few areas of the game that statistics may purport to reveal. And I wouldn't want to support a club or a manager who treated its players so direspectfully.

These days, it seems, everybody's playing 'Fantasy Football' - just splashing cash on the most eye-catching transfer options, the most glamorous names. But this 'Galacticos' approach rarely works out in practice. You don't need all the 'best' players to create a successful football team; you need the players who will work best together. And the stats still can't show you that.

Pick of the transfers

Newcastle's new striker 

(It was either this or 'Mr Blobby' - consider yourselves lucky!)

There was indeed a last-minute surge of loan and transfer business at the end of the summer transfer window, with 25 new deals being concluded on Monday (and a few being cancelled!).

Now that the dust is settling from all of that mayhem, I thought I'd quickly review what I think the most interesting moves will be, in terms of their likely impact for FPL managers. In most cases, these are not the biggest names, or players joining the biggest clubs; they are players who've rarely been given a proper opportunity at their former clubs in recent years, and might now suddenly blossom when they enjoy the prospect of a regular start. Picks like these - only fringe players, at best, at their original clubs, or new arrivals from abroad and hence fairly unknown quantities in the Premier League - are quite low-priced,... and may perhaps prove to be very attractively under-priced. 

Moreover, such players joining clubs that have had a weak start to the season will have more scope to have a really transformative impact; and that could have significant knock-on effects, greatly improving their new side's prospects for the season and boosting the FPL value of some of their thus far disappointing teammates. That's why I think these options are the ones most worthy of careful consideration. (I'll mention some of the more high-profile trades briefly at the end of this piece.)

So, for me, these are the ones to watch, among the recently transferred players:

Harvey Elliott (Aston Villa) - Klopp himself said that one of his greatest regrets was failing to find a way to give Elliott more minutes at Liverpool (it was a problem that his best position is as an attacking midfielder off the right flank, a position that is inevitably monopolised by Mo Salah; though he does also look pretty handy as a No. 10...). I've been a huge fan of his for the past four years: almost always outstanding whenever he did get on the pitch for Liverpool, and for the England Under-21s, I think he has the potential to be as good as Palmer or Saka. Even if he doesn't quite scale those heights - not immediately, anyway - I think he is just what Villa need to re-energize themselves after their dismally flat start to the season. At only 5.4 million, I suspect Elliott could now prove to be one of the best value-for-money returners of the season, and a prime candidate for the crucial 5th midfield seat. (And even if he isn't, he might help to revitalise the FPL appeal of players like Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, and Youri Tielemans.)

Jack Grealish (Everton) - Jack has made an outstanding start at Everton already, and it's great to see him playing with a smile on his face again. His price has already jumped to 6.7 million, but in this much-improved Everton side, he's currently looking like he might get an assist almost every week, as players like Ndiaye and Beto regularly get into good positions to receive his deft crosses and cutbacks. (But that may well mean that Ndiaye and Beto are actually the better picks from Everton. Grealish might only ever contribute assists - and that's really not enough for FPL.)

Xavi Simons (Spurs) - For me, the most exciting of the big-name overseas signings, and one who could potentially have almost as big an impact as Elliott and Grealish. The thing restricting the scope of his importance for his new club's performance, I think, is not his ability but the fact that Spurs had a pretty good squad already - and have made a really strong start to the season; there's not that much room for a new player to drastically improve things. With other left-sided attacking players like Richarlison, Tel, and Odobert that they could call on, there might in fact be some doubts about whether Simons will be an invariable starter; but I feel they wouldn't have bought him if they were satisfied with their existing options; Simons should surely be the default starter, if fit. And he is very, very good.

Callum Wilson (West Ham) - The big problem with Wilson, of course, is that he's rarely managed to stay fit for more than 8 or 10 games. But when he's healthy and in-form, he's a hell of a striker; and he looked absolutely on fire in his debut for the Hammers in Gameweek 3. And since the club had had such a dreadful start to the season - becoming instant relegation favourites after their abysmal showing in the first two games - the opportunity for him to be a catalyst for transformation is huge. As long as he can keep out of the treatment room, he is looking by far the best of the 6.5-and-under forward options (he's only 5.9 million at the moment).

Dan Ndoye (Nottingham Forest) - Forest's new right-winger has been one of the biggest successes of the new summer signings so far. He's got a lot to do to rival the impact that Elanga achieved in the second half of last season, but he's made an outstanding start, with a goal and an assist in his first two games. He might now face some competition for the place from late signing Dilane Bakwa, who also looks quite handy; but the start is surely Ndoye's for the time being.

Reiss Nelson (Brentford) - Brentford have also had a rocky start, and desperately need an infusion of new blood to revinvigorate their attack. And the talented Arsenal youngster could be just the player to give them that. Of course, there will be worries about how far his development - and confidence - have been set back by getting so few minutes at his home club, and by missing most of last season with a succession of injuries. But if he's back to his best, Reiss should thrive on the responsibility of being a main creative provider at a smaller club.

Nick Woltemade (Newcastle) - 'Voldemort', as I'm sure he'll soon be known, hadn't registered on many people's radars; Newcastle had been impressively stealthy in their pursuit of him. But the estimable Adam Clery (best tactical analyst on Youtube and Newcastle uber-fan) rates his potential very highly, and that's enough for me to put him on the watchlist. Although the Stuttgart striker's a very big lad (probably about to become the Premier League's tallest player), it seems he's got very good feet as well, and likes to drop deep and play in teammates from the No.10 space as well as occasionally causing mayhem in the box. All players new to clubs (and especially forwards) take some time to settle in; and most players joining from overseas (especially forwards) also struggle a bit at first to adapt to the physical intensity of the Premier League. So, we'll probably need to give him some time to bed in; and we'll have to accept that, at least at first, he's probably going to be minutes-sharing quite a bit with their other new forward signing, Yoane Wissa. But I am quietly optimistic about his prospects; if he might not be quite as explosive a finisher as Sesko or Gyokeres, I feel he might thrive at Newcastle more than those other two will at their new clubs.

Senne Lammens (Manchester United) - I have no idea how good the young Belgian keeper is, but he's got to be a substantial improvement on Onana and Bayindir, hasn't he?? United's defence has usually managed to remain fairly secure, even when the team in front of them was at its worst; and they've actually started this season rather promisingly, with Dorgu and Yoro finally shaping up, and Luke Shaw back from his latest long injury absence. A decent keeper behind the back-three could give the club a major boost. Unfortunately, at 5.0 million, he's probably too expensive to be of much interest in FPL himself (unless United suddenly go on a clean-sheet bender!); but he might be the catalyst that helps spark a more successful run of performances, and hence make some of their other players more worthy of consideration.

Anthony Elanga (Newcastle) - He's progressed in leaps and bounds since his departure from Manchester United, and seems very excited about his move to Newcastle. Their swift attacking style should suit him down to the ground, and - if he can develop a good rapport with their new striker(s) - I can see the potential for a lot of attacking contributions from him this season. However, with Jacob Murphy so good in that right-flank role during the second half of last year, and Barnes and Gordon also able to play on that side, it might be doubted if he'll be an invariable starter. There'll probably be quite a lot of rotation around the big European fixtures, unfortunately.

Tyler Dibling (Everton) - The England youth international was one of the few bright spots in Southampton's brief visit to the Premier League last season. Unfortunately, he's now classified as a midfielder rather than a full-back, and he might not get a regular start as winger/wing-back/full-back on Everton's right (and, even if he does, we can expect that they'll strongly favour attacking down the left, through Grealish). But if he gets a run of starts, and hits a vein of form, he's one of those who could be in consideration for occasional rotation through the 5th midfield slot. My expectation for his season is that he'll be looking to make enough of a splash to get himself a move to a bigger club.

Joao Palhinha (Spurs) and Mateus Fernandes (West Ham) - And to finish, two outstanding central midfielders, who will, I think, certainly play a crucial role in stabilising their sides and making them more leak-proof; and both should benefit substantially from the new 'defensive points' this season. Fernandes also showed quite a knack for picking up a goal with Southampton last season; Palhinha is also capable of scoring a few, but at Fulham he relied heavily on taking the penalties to boost his FPL returns, and he's unlikely to be given that duty at Spurs. These are probably not players who are directly worth considering for FPL themselves; but they might help to elevate the appeal of some of their teammates!

 

I hesitated to add Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton) to this list, because I'd already nominated 2 Everton players. And I suspect he won't maintain the deadly scoring form he's shown at the start of the season for long. But he's another player I've admired for years, since he first started appearing for Leicester; and I'm very excited about what he could achieve with his new club. If he does go on a scoring streak, he's definitely worth looking at for the 5th seat.

I also omitted Joao Pedro (Chelsea), purely because, with the deal having been done shortly after the end of last season and him having already helped to win the Club World Cup in July, he no longer feels like a 'new' transfer! But I think I'd place a bet that JP will be the highest FPL points-returner of all this year's signings.

There are grave doubts about their clubs' prospects this season, after losing so many key players over the summer, but Caoimhin Kelleher and Michael Kayode (Brentford), and Bafode Diakite and Adrien Truffert (Bournemouth) look to me like the most promising new options at the defensive end of the pitch.

[Well, damn, none of these newcomers have really set the world on fire yet; the keeper and defenders at the end of the review are the only ones who've performed decently and consistently. Grealish (and Ndoye - and Dewsbury-Hall and Joao Pedro!) faded after a bright start, Xavi Simons just hasn't been able to find his form at Spurs yet, Reiss Nelson's been injured, Elanga has struggled to settle in at Newcastle and has been displaced by Jacob Murphy, Tyler Dibling's only getting occasional cameos off the bench, Callum Wilson's yet to make an impact at West Ham (although at least he graduated to a regular start in GW10), and poor Harvey Elliott seems to have got on Unai Emery's wrong side (although, of course, it doesn't help that he's fighting for a place against John McGinn and Emi Buendia), But at least they haven't been such abject disappointments as the 'big name' signings below all proved to be in the opening three months of the season! Really, only Palhinha, Lammens, and Woltemade (and Ekitike) had an immediate impact at their new clubs. As of late November, veryone else was still stuck in 'failure to launch' status.]

And these are the ones to curb your enthusiasm over:

Alexander Isak (Liverpool) - After skipping team training since the start of the new season (and with little opportunity to train now with his new club during a two-week international break), it is very doubtful if Isak will be either physically or tactically ready for a start in Gameweek 4,... and perhaps not even in Gameweek 5 or 6. Moreover, Ekitike and Gakpo have really been playing too well so far to be dropped. And even when he is ready to be integrated into the side, it's likely that he'll be rotated with Ekitike a fair bit, to keep him fresh for the big European games. Even if he were to play a full 90 minutes in every Premier League game (and that is not going to happen), he's unlikely to be as productive for FPL at Liverpool, where he's only one of their many routes to goal, as he was at Newcastle, where he was the primary outlet. This might be a very good move for his career, but - paradoxically! - it's probably a pretty terrible one for his fans in FPL-land; his points prospects are now significantly reduced, and even if he does really, really well,... he's unlikely to be worth his 10.5-million price-tag any more.

Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) - I could be wrong on this, but my suspicion is that Newcastle just wanted some decent quality back-up to ease the pressure on Woltemade during his bedding-in phase, and thought a player like Wissa, used to playing second-fiddle at Brentford for the last few years, would accept - however grudgingly - such a subordinate role. I don't see him being the regular starter once the German's found his feet. And, as with Isak, because he's been a naughty boy and withdrawn himself from training to try to force through his transfer, he's unlikely to be ready to play until Gameweek 5 or 6.

Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) - The Gunners just haven't hit their stride yet. And the period of adjustment to a new country and club is likely to be even tougher for Gyokeres, or rather for his team - because they've got used to playing without a central striker for the past few years. I believe Gyokeres will eventually come good, and perhaps be one of the top-returning forwards this season; but it might take another month or two before that really starts happening.

Ebere Eze (Arsenal) - Rather as with Isak, but more so, Eze isn't likely to be sufficiently indoctrinated with Arteta's tactical approach to be considered as a starter for a few weeks; and he might not get regular starts even then (there are good reasons to prefer Martinelli against certain opponents). And even if he is starting most games, it is unlikely that Arsenal will transform their overall style to accommodate such a maverick (Arteta likes disciplined team build-up, not flamboyant improvisation), or that they will substantially shift their attacking emphasis away from their favoured right side (White-Odegaard-Saka). Eze, unfortunately, is now a huge minutes-risk, and even if he plays regularly is unlikely to have anywhere near as much impact as he did at Palace - where he was invariably the primary creative force, and a primary goalscorer.

Benjamin Sesko and Bryan Mbeumo and Mateus Cunha (Manchester United) - This trio look on paper as if they should be the most terrifying attack in the Premier League. But so far, they've been looking as if they might become the most terrifying attack in the Championship next year. Amorim, for some reason, hasn't even trusted Sesko with a start yet; and the other two have shown only brief glimpses of the attacking danger they exhibited so regularly for their old clubs. They are hamstrung by playing in a still largely dysfunctional team (central midfield is the backbone of any successful side, and United at the moment just don't have one) under a coach who seems to have completely lost the plot. Also, I've always suspected that these three guys just aren't really going to fit together, they have no complimentary chemistry.

None of Pep's recruits - no, not even Ait-Nouri or Reijnders or Cherki - can be guaranteed regular starts. And City just aren't playing that well, anyway: they look like they could struggle even worse than they did last season, and face a real battle to stay in contention for Champions League qualification. And I doubt if Donnarumma can turn things around for them: he might be the world's best keeper, but they already had three outstanding shot-stoppers on their books - what they needed was a new keeper who was really good in early build-up play, and Donnarumma isn't that.

Randal Kolo Muani (Spurs), I'm actually really intrigued about: I think he's very talented, and could turn out to be a great acquisition for them. But I suspect he's just been brought in to add squad depth for their Champions League campaign, and I doubt he'll immediately displace Solanke or Richarlison as the main central striker options.

Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool), who has been, to date, probably the strongest of the big clubs' signings, is unfortunately now likely to become a minutes-risk, after the somewhat superfluous addition of Isak to the Liverpool squad.

And, as I said in early August, although Florian Wirtz is a great player, it's likely to take him at least a couple of months or so to fully settle in at Anfield, and even when he has, he's not going to be a particularly prolific goalscorer - so, for FPL, there are almost certainly other Liverpool players you'll want more.

I have similar doubts about Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez. I think they'll both be fine eventually, but are likely to have a difficult settling-in period. And, at the moment, Liverpool just aren't looking very secure defensively, and even the great Van Dijk is seeming a questionable pick.

So, no, sorry - none of the more glamorous signings get my juices flowing at the moment. They might, when they settle in and find some form; but for now, they don't seem worth gambling on.

Counting down

 

The Summer Transfer Window drags on just that little bit longer this year. It's closing at 7pm on Monday 1st September, UK time - rather than the more traditional midnight on the 31st August (apparently because the 31st is a Sunday?). So, we have just about 75 more hours of suffering to endure.....

It seems to have been a particularly busy - and particularly acrimonious - spell of transfer activity this year, with 99 deals already concluded (according to Fantasy Football Scout's roundup), and Stuttgart striker Nick Woltemade today apparently set to become the 100th, when his move to Newcastle is confirmed. (Who?? Yeah, not the biggest blip on the 'Top European Forwards' Radar....)

Now, if that Woltemade signing goes through, the door could be open for Isak to finally complete his contentious move to Liverpool. (I really hope that doesn't go ahead. They're only buying him because he's available, and they can afford him, and he seems like too good an opportunity to pass up; but they don't need him - at the moment, I think they'd be better off without him...)  And if that happens, the thus-far brilliant Ekitike might get dropped to make room for him; and indeed, Gakpo might find himself suddenly minutes-sharing too. So, this one superficially unexciting piece of transfer activity could have massive repercussions for FPL.

Likewise, two more of last year's highest-scoring forwards in FPL, Watkins and Wissa, are still looking for a move, which might come to pass over the final few days of the window. And if that should happen, and they move to another Premier League club rather than leaving the country, that might greatly enhance their perceived value in FPL. But it might also gravely undermine the value of all of their former teammates at the clubs they've left without a top striker,.... unless they can obtain a top replacement at the last minute. Jorgen Strand Larsen might also become a much more attractive FPL property if he gets a move to a better club (and Wolves might be even deeper in the toilet...). And Xavi Simons's move to Spurs might actually become one of the most influential acquisitions of the window.  So much could still surprise and confound us over the next few days.

Perhaps we'll have a quiet weekend, and Woltemade will be the last deal concluded. But, typically, there's a huge last-minute rush in the final few hours of a window. With the best part of a whole extra day available this year, the possibilities for further business are enormous.

I wouldn't be going anywhere near a Wildcard until all the dust has settled from this frenzy of club-swapping and squad-strengthening. Indeed, I wouldn't want to be going anywhere near one until at least the end of September, by which time we'll have had a few weeks to observe new club line-ups in action, and form starting to develop...  At present, we really don't have much idea at all what the new season is going to look like. And any changes we make to our FPL teams now are likely to be rendered irrelevant within the next month or so.

How the transfer window became such A CESSPOOL

My mate Adam Clery - taking a rare break from his usual output of insightful tactical breakdowns on players and teams - just put out this rather fascinating video about how the transfer market operates in the modern game: not so much about the Isak saga in particular, though that, of course, provides the main illustrative example, but rather about how the evolving media landscape of the last few years has led to this toxic soup of disinformation in which we now find ourselves drowning.

Two of the key takeaways I found in this (which, if I'd been previously 'aware' of them, I'd not fully taken onboard and appreciated their significance) are that this toxic soup has got very much worse just in the last few years since Elon started to monetize Twitter/X; even 'respectable' journalists can't now resist the allure of easy dosh for circulating inflammatory transfer gossip that may garner millions of 'views' and 'shares', while a few ludicrous vultures like the notorious Fabrizio Romano can now manage to make a fat income from peddling this kind of crap 24/7. The second vital point is that whereas players in the past would generally utilize the 'legitimate' means of putting in a formal 'transfer request' if they were really desperate for a move, in recent years that has become almost unheard-of, as modern contracts heavily disincentivize this 'nuclear option' with a range of financial penalties (Isak and Wissa - and others who are known to 'want away' but haven't made such big waves about it - haven't dared to pursue this option, despite their alleged determination to leave their present clubs).

With the effective removal of this key piece of leverage players formerly used to be able to employ to lobby aggressively for a transfer, they - or rather, in the great majority of cases, their management teams - have felt obliged to resort to flame wars via social media instead. We see almost daily dribbles of news about how a player doesn't want to join in pre-season training, feels that his relationship with his present club has irrevocably broken down, that 'trust has been broken', that he couldn't possibly play for them ever again, etc., etc..... just to affirm his eagerness about a possible move and to try to keep some pressure on interested clubs to keep plugging away at the negotiation.

Much of the time, this stuff is at best grossly overstated, at worst entirely bogus. Isak - although he's done terrible damage to his relationship with the Newcastle fans, and possibly with some of his teammates too - would surely continue to play for his present club, and do so quite 'happily', if the mooted transfer to Liverpool were not to be completed in the next 11 days. And if the club are potentially open to such a lucrative transfer going ahead, they probably won't want to jeopardize it by having the player take part in competitive matches, or even in the often intense team training that precedes them; if negotations are ongoing, the prospective buyer typically imposes such a stipulation on keeping the player out of harm's way. So, I'm not convinced that Isak has really 'refused' to join the squad; I doubt if Newcastle would want him taking part while transfer discussions are happening.

A question remains, though, HOW, WHY does any of this nonsense work?? Surely the clubs aren't fooled, football insiders know that this is all smoke-and-mirrors, PR tomfoolery. I suspect that, if it does have any impact (perhaps it doesn't), it operates indirectly through fan pressure. Fans tend to feast on this regular diet of tweet and counter-tweet rather undiscriminatingly, and can become very emotionally invested in their perceptions of an unfolding narrative around a particular player. Perhaps it feels a little harder for the Liverpool leadership to back away from signing Isak now that their fanbase has got so excited about the idea? Just a thought. Perhaps Newcastle are going to be more open to letting him go, now that so many of their fans have turned against him as a Judas? That is perhaps even more likely.

It is very sad that things have come to this. It is yet another instance of the corrupting influence of the social media, an untrammelled, unfiltered torrent of titillation and provocation gushing into people's brains every hour (if you own a smartphone; I never have!). The blame rests ultimately on the great reading public; if they didn't gobble up this diet of shite so gleefully every day, there wouldn't be the incentives to produce it.

I would also venture that perhaps the game's authorities - either the Premier League or the Football Association, or perhaps, for once, both of them working in concert - should intervene to try to stop this sort of unseemly behaviour before it gets any worse (can it get any worse??). Players who refuse to honour their contracts - or even publicly threaten to do so (and if statements are put out in a player's name, they should be challenged immediately to personally confirm or deny their contents) - should be heavily sanctioned under the rules of the game. It is probably already within the power of the clubs to suspend wages and/or impose fines for such behaviour, but they'll be reluctant to take such extreme action if it might jeopardise their relationship with a player who might yet stay with them. But the game's authorities could surely take action under the umbrella of the 'bringing the game into disrepute' offence - imposing fines, banning someone from playing, perhaps even suspending their registration to effectively block any possible transfer.

That sounds extreme, I know. But if such measures were to be announnced, I'm quite sure they would never need to be used. Players and clubs would simply find a new - and hopefully, more civilized, and perhaps more private - means of working through their disagreements. Well, a man can dream.

[I wonder if the frequent mention of interest from other clubs - 'interest' which often evaporates suspiciously quickly, and is sometimes never corroborated by the club in question - is perhaps one of the most overused and most hollow of these Twitter-wars ploys. Does it really seem plausible that Ebere Eze was on the brink of signing for Spurs today,.... and then only an hour or two later would sign for Arsenal instead??  Hinting at interest from such a hated rival would be a guaranteed means to amplify the emotional temperature of the Arsenal fans, and thus perhaps intensify the pressure on the negotiating team to close the deal quickly....  And Spurs might not feel inclined to deny the story, even if completely unfounded. If there were in fact a chance of Eze being available, they wouldn't want to write themselves out of contention for him, would they? And even if they weren't interested, they wouldn't want to rouse their fans' ire by stating as much publicly - that might suggest poor judgement on their part, or a lack of ambition, or a shortage of funds. If Eze's agents say he nearly signed for Spurs, that's quite flattering and exciting for Spurs - even if it came to nothing. And it adds that little bit more fuel to the fire of their implacable enmity towards their North London rivals. All good.  I really don't think Spurs were ever in talks with him; though they might have wished they had been...] 

The shape of things to come...?

The Athletic's breezy young Scots tactics guru (one of my favourites!), J. J. Bull, put out this video a couple of weeks back, discussing five major shifts in tactics he expects to see becoming important during the coming season. Well worth a look.

As if we didn't have enough to ponder with the protracted transfer sagas over the likes of Gyokeres, Sesko, Isak, Watkins, and Jackson, and the early injuries to Maddison, Colwill, Kelleher, Rogers et al, the colossal spending on squad rebuilds by a few clubs like Liverpool and Manchester United, the decimation in this transfer window of some poorer clubs like Bournemouth and Brentford and Wolves, and the cautiously whispered possibility that perhaps not all of the promoted clubs will be completely hopeless this year,... we also have major tactical evolutions to take into consideration.

Also, it seems, there are to be a number of other - mostly peripheral/cosmetic - changes being introduced this season, a couple that are actually tweaks to the rules of the game.  So much to take on board!!!

Damn, being an FPL manager is almost harder than the real thing....!

'Picks of the Week' - the new transfers

This is not one of my usual 'Picks of the Week' posts (since I wouldn't necessarily recommend getting any of these players in for FPL - certainly not before we've seen them play for their new teams.... and possibly not ever), but just a few quick observations on what strike me as the most potentially interesting new acquisitions during the just-closed January transfer window.

I already mentioned a couple of weeks back that I thought the pacey Dutch winger Donyell Malen could be a promising addition for Aston Villa, but... his goalscoring seems to have gone off the boil rather with Dortmund this season (not that he's ever been that prolific). And with Jacob Ramsey, Leon Bailey, and Morgan Rogers having been in such good form so far this season, it's difficult to see how he'll find a regular starting place there.

Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush quickly won a lot of attention among the ranks of FPL managers (with his ownership well over 300k already - which seems likely to soon drive his price up a notch, from its not-very-generous opening point of 7.0). Yes, he's very quick, very versatile, has a lot of skills; it looks like his dead-ball delivery could be a handy asset for City. But he's not been a particularly prolific scorer in his career so far (he had quite a good season with Frankfurt last year, and a very good start to this one - but in his younger years, he'd scarcely found the net at all). And I am somewhat surprised that Pep has introduced him to the starting line-up immediately (a 'sign of desperation', some might say...). But City are really still not looking very good. And since Pep will usually only be using 2 players - at most 3 - from Foden, Savinho, Grealish, Doku, Silva, and Bobb (and perhaps Jason McAtee, and maybe even Rico Lewis too), it's very difficult see him being all that high up the list of priorities once everyone's fit again; and even if he is, he's bound to be at least an occasional victim of the notorious 'Pep Roulette'.

Ben Chilwell is a player I've always liked - both in the real world, and as a Fantasy pick - so I'm glad to see him finally escape from Chelsea, to hopefully get a chance to shine again with Palace. But of course, injuries have been a big problem for him in recent years, and he hasn't really played an extended spell of first-team football in four years or more now - so, it might be a bit doubtful if he'll immediately become a starter. And with Tyrick Mitchell already being a very capable left-back for them, and part of a nicely settled back-five, I fear he might just have been acquired as emergency back-up, destined to rarely get a full run-out there. But maybe, just maybe there is a chance that Oliver Glasner envisages making use of him as an outright winger - or perhaps even a creative central midfielder; in which case, he might get in the starting team quite regularly, and might then just possibly enjoy the opportunity to start returning significant FPL points.

Probably the most impressive - and potentially transformative - eve-of-deadline capture was United's sealing of the deal to bring the powerful Danish attacking left-back Patrick Dorgu in from Lecce. They probably needed a new striker and a new central midfielder even more, but they'll have to make the best of what they could get. And Dorgu is, I think, very likely to quickly become a regular starter in the wingback role, probably on his preferred left side. This should give United much more incisive attacking options down that flank; and it would have the additional benefits of allowing Dalot to be swapped over to the right (where, I think, he looks much more comfortable), and Mazraoui to be permanently moved into the back-three (a switch that is all the more needful now that Lisandro Martinez looks to have torn his ACL).

City fans will be hoping that Nico Gonzalez might catalyse an even bigger shake-up for them. At Porto, he has, I believe, mostly been a more progressive sort of midfielder, more of a box-to-box player; but he has a formidable engine and covers the ground very well - so, there is some reason to hope that he can plug some of that huge defensive hole in the middle of the park that Rodri's absence has created for them. He can't be any worse than Kovacic and Gundogan and Silva in that role, anyway....  But I'm doubtful about how far he can fix City's problems on his own.

I suppose I have to mention Marcus Rashford, as this seems to be the move fans have been getting most excited about online. However, as with Malen, I don't really see how he'll fit into the Villa set-up. He's at his best coming in off the left wing to join in attacks; but they already have Rogers and Ramsey (and potentially Malen too) who can do that for them. So, it's more likely he's just going to be used as occasional relief for Ollie Watkins, now that Jhon Duran has taken the Saudi money. And, given that he's hardly played any football this season (and hasn't played well in a season-and-a-half....), I fear it could take him quite a while to get back to full match-sharpness - which would mean that he might be of limited use in deputising for Watkins immediately, if the apparent hamstring strain he suffered at the weekend is likely to keep him out for a few weeks. Indeed, I suspect that if Watkins is unavailable now, Emery might prefer to go with Rogers as a kind of 'false 9' rather than taking a risk on the notoriously flakey and inconsistent Rashford.

A more intriguing prospect, I think, is goalkeeper Alex Palmer, who's just been lured away from West Bromwich Albion by Ipswich. He's looked the best goalkeeper in the Championship for the past couple of seasons. And given what a liability Ari Muric has become this season, and that alternate Christian Walton looks set to be out for a while with a serious muscle injury, Kieran McKenna must surely be intending to make him the default No. 1 straight away. He hasn't been priced in FPL yet, but if he comes in at 4.0, he'd be a very tempting back-up pick. Even at the more likely 4.5, he might possibly get into the conversation. And I have a suspicion that he could prove to be the difference-maker that helps Ipswich stay up. (Although I think the acquisitions of Enciso, Philogene, and Godfrey could have a positive impact too - and these are certainly an encouraging 'statement of intent' from the Ipswich owners that they're determined to make a good fight of it. I don't get that feeling with Southampton or Leicester. And I'm still a bit undecided about Wolves...)

I feel a definite frisson of excitement about Evan Ferguson's loan move to West Ham as well. His development has been derailed by a string of injuries over the past couple of seasons, but he is one of the best young strikers I've seen emerge in the English game for many, many years: big, strong, quite quick, excellent touch, calm under pressure, full range of finishing - pretty much a complete forward. He's worked under Graham Potter before at Brighton; so, hopefully there's a good personal relationship there that could help him to rebuild confidence (if he's lost any; he hasn't struck me as the type of guy to be much troubled by mental demons). And with Fullkrug perpetually injured and Antonio out for the season, there does seem to be a good chance that he might become a regular starter as the No. 9. However, Potter, as we know, is a compulsive tinkerer, and he has been tempted to try out Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta as 'false 9s' in the absence of any recognised striker being available for him recently. And Jarrod Bowen can play as a central striker too; though he's much better coming in off the wing. Priced at only 5.5 million, I think there's a fair chance that Ferguson might become the top budget forward pick in the latter part of the season, if he starts regularly and can stay fit.

But the big news of this window for me is Tottenham's loan signing of the 19-year-old French forward Mathys Tel. Yes, he's very young, very inexperienced, and hasn't yet established a prolific scoring record... hasn't found the net at all yet this season; however, given that almost all of his appearances for Bayern have been off the bench, his 16 goals over the previous two seasons have come from a fairly small number of minutes - and some of them have been quite breathtaking. The kid is a sensational talent. He can play off the wing or through the middle, so there are a number of ways he could get into the side. However, even with Solanke ruled out for another month or so, Spurs do have quite an abundance of attacking talent at their disposal: Son, Johnson, Richarlison, Kulusevski, Maddison, and young Mikey Moore. So, I fear he might get limited minutes, be used - initially at least - mainly as an impact sub. But I think it's very possible that he might have enough of an impact to graduate before long to a regular start.  [I'm glad to see my mate Adam Clery over at FourFourTwo agrees with me about this lad's prospects.]

So.... not the busiest transfer window, by a long way; but it did - belatedly - throw up some intriguing new FPL possibilities.

The biggest news, though, is surely Arsenal - being 'linked' with some big names, like Zubimendi and Gyokeres (again), and Osimhen and Sesko,..... and just about every decent forward in the Premier League.... and failing to land anyone. Oh dear.

The final countdown.....

I had been about to try to fake up some excitement about this year's mid-season transfer window by observing that we now have less than 72 hours before it closes...

But, what do you know?  I'd been expecting it to close at midnight on Friday, because.... you know, tradition. And the calendar.

But I've just discovered that this year the deadline is not at midnight on the 31st, but at 11pm (UK time) on Monday, 3rd February.

So, we have a whole 5 more days..... of waiting for nothing to happen. Oh, joy!

So far, the moves of Kinsky to Spurs, Malen to Villa, Marmoush to City, and Philogene and Enciso to Ipswich have been the only events of even mild interest to unfold. Well, apart from the amusing spectacle of Arsenal repeatedly leaking details of forwards they've supposedly made lavish bids for, only to discover that no-one wants to go and play for them....

But Arsenal and Manchester United and Manchester City and Newcastle and Villa and Spurs and a few others are really quite desperate to bolster their squad depth, if not to acquire one or two major new assets in key areas, so things might yet get a bit more interesting.

And everyone seems to thrive on the insane brinksmanship of trying to tie up the details of a deal in the last hours and minutes before the window closes. So, there's quite likely to be a late flurry of activity next Monday evening.

To keep up with developments (if any should ever occur...), I've mainly been looking to the very simple transfer updates page being maintained by the Fantasy Football Scout website... although this is a very similar resource, with slightly more commentary, on Football Transfers, if you crave an alternative (or just want some additional confirmation, to soothe your cynicism; I usually do).