The roll of Doom

I had been thinking for a week or two of doing a brief post on possible/probable managerial sackings, and how that might impact FPL fortunes over the coming month or so, but.... well, I left it a bit too long, and the two prime candidates, Maresca and Amorim, pressed their own 'Eject' buttons to force an exit a bit earlier than most people were probably expecting.

Both Chelsea and United have been very inconsistent this season, and, overall, performing well below what you'd imagine their optimum potential ought to be. And both managers, you suspect, may have become somewhat unpopular with at least some of their players - particularly Amorim, whose obstinate adherence to a tactical system that obviously just didn't work with the players he had available, compounded by an insane insistence on tinkering with the line-up every single week for no fathomable reason, must have been enormously frustrating. So, I think there are excellent prospects for a very strong new manager bounce at both clubs. But that phenomenon is of very uncertain force and longevity, sadly tends to fizzle away quite soon.

I fancy that Liam Rosenior and whoever gets brought in at Old Trafford are both likely to be 'interim appointments' only, and will be moved on within 6-12 months, regardless of their results. But, that being the case, they're quite unlikely to get terminated earlier than that, even if their results are dreadful.

It's probably not a bad thing for a new United coach to have to start with fixtures against City and Arsenal, because no-one's really expected to win those, and anything the team can show in those games will be a plus. And after that daunting opening double, there's a run of much softer targets up until the end of February - and, with the aid of the new manager bounce, we might see some very good results for them in that period, I think. The problem for FPL is that we don't know what formation or selection the new man will favour, or how far certain players will thrive in it. Patrick Dorgu, in particular, has looked very promising when deployed in an attacking role a couple of times recently (and, since his FPL price has dropped so low, he's probably worth hanging on to as a 4th/5th defender, just to wait and see how things develop), but is quite likely to go back to being a more conventional full-back - if he keeps his place at all (Mazraoui or Shaw are better defensively, I think). If they show some defensive solidity, Lammens could become a tempting possibility in goal, at least as the back-up choice. Sesko, now that he finally seems to have found his scoring boots, could certainly be worth considering. Mount always looks good when he plays, but his injury-proneness has become a major problem. And of course Bruno is having his best season in years - although still, for me, a rather too intermittent points producer to be a really compelling FPL selection; his attractiveness will probably depend on whether the new coach continues to use him as a pivot player alongside Casemiro (there may be little alternative, since Casemiro doesn't have the legs to fill the role on his own any more, and Ugarte does not appear to be Premier League class) or allows him a freer role as an advanced playmaker, where he can really prosper. Cunha has started to show flashes of his former greatness again at last, but I fear that might evaporate as soon as Mbeumo's back; the Brazilian looks like one of those players who likes to have the spotlight on him, and only really excels when he's carrying the responsibility of being the team's star player and main goal outlet.

Enzo Fernandez (who's only intermittently shown FPL value), Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro (who haven't been worth selecting at all so far, but obviously have enormous potential if things start clicking for them under Rosenior), and Reece James (who's having a superb season, but unfortunately is still under the shadow of restricted minutes because of his past injury record) could become FPL essentials again at some point in the second-half of the season; and it might well happen immediately, since they face a very soft run of fixtures up until their clash with Arsenal at the end of next month.

What other managerial changes might be on the cards??

Well, I think Scott Parker is probably the most needful departure. He was quite a commanding presence on the pitch in his playing days, but he just doesn't give off that same energy as a coach - in fact, he doesn't express any energy at all. His morose, monotonous, emotionless drone of a press-conference performance sucks the life out of a room, and if he's like that in the dressing-room too, I can see why the Burnley players aren't lifting their level of performance. He gives the impression, too, of just not knowing why things are going wrong, having no real idea how to turn things around. And Burnley are deep, deep in the mire now, 8 points adrift of safety; the club needs to make a change soon to have any hope of Premier League survival. Frankly, I think it may already be too late, even if they can pull off an inspirational change of manager. But at least such a shake-up might shift the FPL calculus as to how much of a soft touch they're likely to be for opponents. (And I quite fancy Zian Flemming as a cheap 3rd striker option, if he keeps a regular start....)

Thomas Frank, alas, is probably the next most likely to get the axe fairly soon. A tremendously likeable man, and widely regarded as one of the most astute coaches in the game, but.... he is looking rather out of his depth at Spurs. But that may be second only to Manchester United as an ultimate 'poisoned chalice' appointment; there have been so many things wrong at that club for so many years that it's a huge task for any manager to dig them out of the mire in a single season. Being without their first-choice forward and their principal playmaker all season so far, and usually without at least one of their main defensive options as well, has obviously taken its toll. West Ham and Burnley up next ought to be easy wins; and then they have City, for whom they have become a bit of a bogey team in recent years. A few decent results over the coming month, and a few encouraging acquisitions during the window, should lift the clouds over Frank's head, I think. But some bad performances and bad results in these next three fixtures could seal his fate - that's how much of a knife-edge he's on right now.

I fear poor Nuno Espirito Santo's days might be numbered as well. I really like him, I think he comes across as a very honest, direct, decent and affable character, and he's proved himself in the past to be a very capable coach. But he's looking depressed at the moment - sad, lost, and defeated, like he doesn't think he can fix what's wrong at West Ham. Maybe no-one can - not without a major lift from some January transfers. But I think the club will have to try someone different quite soon, if they can't at least start to claw back some of the gap to Leeds and Forest. Matches against promoted Sunderland and Burnley in the next few weeks are likely to be make-or-break for Nuno, I suspect.

Sean Dyche is probably somewhat at risk too. Forest have improved a bit from their rocky start, particularly the horrible nosedive they took during the ill-advised Postecoglou interlude, but they're still not very consistent, still nowhere near the levels they were achieving last year. So long as they can maintain a decent gap over the bottom three (which might be more down to their continuing failures than Forest's 'success'), he'll probably be OK. But if the poor results continue while Burnley or West Ham mount a bit of a rally, I think he could be out of the door very quickly. Evangelos Marinakis has shown himself to be a very emotional, impulsive, and impatient man - and he's likely to get very spooked at any prospect of descending to the Championship again.

Andoni Iraola might also be under some threat, given Bournemouth's horrible run of results over the past couple of months (and things might get even worse for them if they do indeed lose Semenyo - and can't strengthen the squad in this transfer window). But they have a very inviting run of fixtures coming up now (apart from Liverpool at the end of the month, and at least that's at home). And frankly, those poor results have looked very largely down to some bad luck, rather than really bad performances. Given what Iraola has achieved for the club over the past couple of seasons, he deserves to be cut a lot of slack during an occasional downturn like this. I really can't see him deserving the sack, even if Bournemouth were to finish the season skirting the relegation zone - but I really don't think that's likely. Should it happen, however, the club's ownership might think that a new broom might re-energize things; but not for another month or two yet, at least, I would think, and probably not until the end of the season. The graver risk, perhaps, is that he might get tempted by offers from bigger clubs.

I don't think anyone else looks likely to be at risk this season. Arne Slot was probably always fairly bulletproof at Anfield - unless the team had sunk deep into the bottom half of the table, and they're surely much too good for that to happen. If they crash out of the Champions League early and fail to qualify for it next year through their league finish, then there might be a re-evaluation at the end of the season; but I can't see him going before that.

And Rob Edwards probably has the most secure job in the league right now: he was obviously hired for next year in the Championship. Salvaging a little bit of pride for Wolves, perhaps not finishing dead last, would be an adequate achievement for him this season - and, frankly, nobody is really expecting even that much.

So, farewell then....

 Alas - goodbye (at last), Uncle Erik.

Though few people, I imagine, will mourn his passing from Old Trafford. The overwhelming sensation, for most of us, is probably rather a sense of profound relief that we've all now been put out of his misery.

It had indeed become embarrassing, painful to witness this ongoing slow-motion train-wreck over so many months....  It is baffling that the board did not get rid of him last summer (an untypically brilliant performance to clinch the FA Cup scarcely compensating for another dismal season in the League); or during the last international break. Van Nistelrooy has recently been much-touted as at least an interim option; but I suppose they didn't fancy handing the reins to him for any extended period, and thus weren't willing to do so until they had a substantive replacement finally secured. And Thomas Tuchel taking the England job may have thrown a spanner in the works. Even if he wasn't their prime target, he must surely have been in the conversation, and other managers they'd approached will probably have thought he might have been their preferred option - and hence that his apparent spurning of their overtures presented an opportunity for them to intensify their own negotiation over the position.... and so drag things out for another week or two.

Once upon a time, it would have been just about inconceivable that any top manager would take a post in charge of a national team in preference to the Manchester United job. But this, sadly, is how far they have fallen - from being 'The Greatest Club in the World' 15 years ago.... to an object of general derision now.  And the real reason for Ten Hag surviving the last 5 or 6 months may not have been that unexpected FA Cup win, but the fact that the United job has become such a 'poisoned chalice' that none of the several managers said to have been tapped up for it showed any interest in accepting the offer.

I never felt Ten Hag was a good fit for the position. United's fans expect an expansive attacking style of play - exciting to watch, even if not consistently successful; but the Dutchman's attitude seemed to be more dour and pragmatic. And the United job - even more than those at the other top Premier League clubs - really demands someone who's very media-savvy, who cuts a charismatic figure in interviews. Poor Erik always came across as stiff and pompous. And, over the last year or so, he, not unnaturally, increasingly had rather a hunted air about him - which did not inspire general confidence.

Yes, he came to a club with all kinds of structural problems, a squad that was a total mess, with a long history of under-performance. And he has had some ridiculous injury problems to cope with. But even when players were fit, he seemed to be constantly chopping and changing between them - never sure what his best starting eleven should be: particularly in defence, where Lindelof, Varane, or Maguire could never seem to get an extended run of starts, even when they played well (Lindelof, I thought, was particularly hard done-by); but he also couldn't make his mind up about how to juggle his attacking assets - Martial, Rashford, Antony, Garnacho, Elanga, Diallo. There was never any consistency in the selections, nor any clear 'identity' in the style of play; and very often, his players on the pitch looked lost, as if they just didn't know what they were supposed to be doing. This might be tolerable on occasion, early in a manager's tenure; but with Ten Hag, this never changed across two years! And he rarely seemed to be able to adapt his tactics, or use new personnel off the bench, to improve matters when games were going badly for them. That remarkable FA Cup victory gave a tantalising glimpse of what he might have been, should have been capable of - a shrewd gameplan to knock City out of their stride, and his players fully invested in it, all giving 110%. Why did he scarcely manage to produce any hint of such effectiveness in the 85 EPL matches he led United out for??

One suspects that his high-profile spat - which seemed petty on both sides - with Jadon Sancho was just the tip of an iceberg of poor player relations. It seemed he might have long since 'lost the dressing room', as most of his players rarely seemed willing to really 'put in a shift' for him.

Above all, it seemed incredibly perverse that he persisted in a tactical set-up that could never possibly work with the players he had available. If you're going to pursue an aggressive high press, you need to compress the play in the opposition half by keeping a high defensive line; but in order to do that, you need at least one or two very fast defenders who can get back quickly to deal with counter-attacks (Nope), atacking players, particularly in the wide areas, who are willing to run their arses off to get back and help out with thwarting a counter (Garnacho, Rashford?? Nope!), and, ideally, a highly mobile central defensive midfielder who can usually snuff out such attacks at source (Nope). Instead, because of the chronic lack of pace at the back and in the holding role (Casemiro reads the game superbly, but has no legs any more), and lack of reliable forward cover down the flanks,... his defensive line tended to drop very, very deep - leaving 30 yards of open space for opposing attackers to canter through at will (poor Kobbie Mainoo last season often being left with the thankless task of trying to police 25-30% of the entire pitch on his own...). And on a related point - really, what was the point of buying one of the world's best ball-playing goalkeepers if you never let him leave his area?  All of fhat was just self-destructive lunacy. So, YES, he absolutely had to go. It was long, long, long overdue.

As usual, my man Adam Clery at FourFourTwo is largely in agreement with me. He's been very swift to put out a video on Ten Hag's departure.

He's done one on Ruben Amorim as well now - thanks, Adam.