Possible Picks?? [Pt. 2]

Following on from this morning's post on the most promising goalkeeper and defender picks for the season ahead, I'll now try to provide a survey of the best prospects in midfield and attack. [I hope it won't take too long.... But it probably will!]

Midfielders

I'm wary of Salah and Son, at least at the start of the season, because both their sides are going through a little bit of upheaval,... and they both ended last season in rather subdued form. Salah is one of those players who, like Haaland (as I discussed a couple of days ago) could produce another stunning season and be - by a good margin - FPL's top points producer of the year; but for a star passing his prime rather than just entering it, that is a much more uncertain hope to cling to. My hunch is that Salah will end up having a pretty good season, but not reattain the 250+ totals he managed in his two best recent years (much less the 303 pts he got in his remarkable debut season with Liverpool).  It's a fine call as to whether a relatively 'modest' 220-230 from him is worth 12.5 million. I think it probably is.

Son I'm less sold on. I think he's far too 'streaky' to justify a 10.0 million price-tag. While he has generally looked capable of matching Salah over the last four seasons (except in 22-23, when he was noticeably inhibited by an injury for much of the season), he has tended to get his points in short runs of games (indeed, largely in just a handful of individual games, where he produces huge hauls!), with long, long, long dry spells in between. It's great if you manage to catch him in one of his brief scoring surges; but he's deadweight in your squad for extended periods - and I just don't think you can afford that from such an expensive player. It's better to gamble that you can rotate a number of in-form players into his position who will produce more consistently across the whole season,... and, hopefully, end up giving you more points overall as well. (I fancy there are a number of other players at Spurs who might produce more than him this season, anyway, or at least offer much better points-per-pound value.)

Palmer is probably a must-have after last season. I am not a super-optimist about him, though. I think last season was so extraordinary that he can't possibly repeat it, let alone improve on it; changes under the new manager will be unsettling, and may take a while to start working; and he might not be quite so productive under the new system. There are already signs in pre-season that he might be sharing creative duties with Nkunku this year, rather than being a sole provider almost all the time. And probably defences will give him closer attention now, trying to aggressively man-mark him to stop him getting on the ball in the final third so much. So, I can see him perhaps only managing 180-200 pts this season - which still isn't bad, but might not quite justify his new 10.5-milliion asking-price. However, I'd say that this is his minimum likely output; he could do a lot better. And I'm more confident of him at least getting near 200 points than I am of any other midfielder (except Salah).

My personal preference would be for DeBruyne over Foden (Pep often plays Foden in a variety of different roles, some of which really don't suit him; and KDB is likely to take the more prominent creative role most of the time when they start together), and Odegaard over Saka (Odegaard had a slightly erratic and disappointing season, by his standards; where Saka had an extremely successful one, though only really - in FPL terms - in a couple of fairly brief spells where he scored points like a maniac... for most of the season, his returns were disappointingly below what they had been in previous years, and I fear that's going to be a growing trend, as Arteta's tactics increasingly demand a more disciplined and 'controlling' style of play from him; so, I foresee their points tallies being much closer this season, or perhaps even swapping around - and Odegaard is 1.5 milliont cheaper).

It's hard not to like the outright forwards generously classed as 'midfielders' by the FPL gnomes (players like this tend to be the highest producers in the game, certainly for polnts-per-pound, and often overall as well): Mbeumo, Bowen, Diaz, Nkunku (admittedly, looking like he might play more like a creative midfielder or No.10 rather than an attacker much of the time, but still a major goal-threat), Jota (if only he could stay fit!), and maybe Hwang Hee-Chan (although he has tended to blow hot and cold; and Wolves have a tough start to the season); and not forgetting Bournemouth's Antoine Semenyo, who's a 'midfielder' for the first time this year, only costs 5.5 million, and might now be taking a more prominent attacking role after Solanke's departure.

Then there's a welter of attacking wingers who might also pick up a lot of goals and assists: Mitoma, Adingra, Gordon, Barnes, Martinelli, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Garnacho, Diallo, Neto, Madueke, Kulusevski, Johnson, Doku, Savinho, Carvalho, Iwobi, Sarabia, Rodrigo Gomes, Summerville, Sinisterra, Kluivert... and probably a few more too.

There are a few very creative midfielders who also pose a significant goal-threat as well as providing lots of assists: Bernardo Silva, Eze, Maddison, Kudus, Gibbs-White, Smith Rowe, Emi Buendia (if he's back to his best, after a long injury absence), and, of course, Bruno Fernandes,... and perhaps even Harvey Elliott (who seems to have been staking a strong claim to a start as a sort of No. 10 for Arne Slot in some of the friendlies).

And then there are some midfielders who might be seen primarily in a more defensive light, yet do also have a strong attacking element to their game: Bruno Guimaraes, Gross, Rice, Rodri, Wharton, McGinn, Macallister, Andreas Perreira,... and perhaps Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.

I can't give you any more help than that, sorry. You just have to pick the ones you have the best feeling about - given their price, and their opening 5 or 6 fixtures. Any of them might start out the season in blazing form.... or be a complete dud. There is no way to tell. 

At least I've pared the choices down to about 50 or so, from the getting on for 400 available in this category.  If you're finding it really difficult to choose,...you might as well just write all the names on Post-It notes, stick 'em to a wall, and throw darts at them blindfold.

Forwards

This category is rather easier, as you only have to pick three, and there are considerably fewer options to choose from.

As I said yesterday, it's become a 50/50 whether to risk going without Haaland or not, because of his exorbitant price this year. Going without him will be hard work, but I think it could succeed; in fact, I suspect that on average, the two approaches may work out just about the same.

I already outlined in this post on 'How to choose the initial squad' that I would recommend (and I think most draft squads I've seen so far are following this approach)  picking two  from Haaland, Watkins, and Isak - since these are very obviously the three best options up front this year. Some people are getting very excited about Solanke's move to Spurs, and are suggesting that he might now be worth considering in that category of the very top picks who can be seen as alternatives to Haaland (if you feel you can't afford him). I think he could do well at Spurs, and would rate him him now as the fourth best FPL forward prospect for the year - but still quite a long way short of the top three.

For me, all the forwards priced at 8.0 or 7.5 fail to be interesting this year, purely because of their price. And the ones available at 7.0 don't look very impressive. I am intrigued by Zirkzee and Fullkrug at 7.0 - but, since they're new imports from Europe, I probably wouldn't take a chance on them from the start of the season; but I think they have great potential, and are worth watching.... to pounce on if they do start showing some form. And Gyokeres would be tempting, if his rumoured move to Arsenal should go through.

However, given that you rarely want to play all 3 forwards (because you can almost always get more points, or at least a much better points-per-pound return, from a reasonably-priced attacking player in your 5th midfield slot), you can afford to go pretty cheap on your 3rd forward place. 

A lot of the less expensive forwards this year look like they could actually produce some decent points, and not serve merely as a cut-price squad-filler: Cunha at 6.5, Awoniyi and Wood, Muniz and Raul, Thiago and Wissa, and maybe Duran (if he moves somewhere he can get a start) at 6.0; Joao Pedro and Evan Ferguson (when he gets fit again), and perhaps Delap, Vardy, or Armstrong at only 5.5; and maybe even someone like Kalajdzic, Vinicius, Deivid, Archer, or Jebbison, at just 5.0 million, might have a chance of graduating to a regular start at some point.

Again, you might as well just throw a dart.....

So, that's it: my take on how the choices break down this year.  I think there's a wider range of choices this time than there has been for quite a few years (a lot of players coming back from long injuries, a lot of interesting new players joining the league; many of the recent high-flyers coming off slightly disappointing or injury-restricted seasons, or suffering big hikes in their price which could restrict their appeal); and more general uncertainty about the likely course of the season, with four top-half clubs adapting to new managers and four of the top six mired in major makeovers.

It's going to be a great season: anything could happen!

Possible picks?? [Pt. 1]

Well, I said on here a few days ago that I will generally avoid giving direct recoomendations for or against any specific player (and I certainly won't be sharing anything about my own squad; not in advance, anyway; maybe occasionally retrospectively, just to share a few 'war stories' for general enlightenment - and acknowledge my fallibility), but.... since we're now on the eve of The Big Kick-Off, everyone is becoming obsessed with polishing up their opening squads.... and casting around for additional sources of advice.

So, I'll attempt a brief-ish rundown of who I think are the players most worthy of consideration, for each position and price category.

Goalkeepers

I don't think any of the 5.5 keepers justify their price-tag (although, if you can find the money in the kitty, Alisson might be a promising start-of-season pick, just because of how soft Liverpool's early run of fixtures is).

Pickford (last season's top keeper), Onana (who improved dramatically after a terrible start to the year, and ended up well out in front on number of saves; and might be playing behind a much more stable defence this year, with the arrival of De Ligt), and Leno (consistently one of the best-value keepers for the last two years at Fulham; but it's a pity his price has gone up this year) are as 'premium' as I would go between the sticks; they look like they'll offer very good value at 5.0.

But I think it's probably smarter to start with two 4.5-million-pound keepers, since there are so many strong options at that price-point: Henderson (appears to have the start at Palace now; and has good early fixtures), whoever starts at Chelsea (probably Jorgensen? the best early fixture run of all!), Areola (slightly daunting early fixture run, but was an outstanding keeper for most of last season: second only to Onana on saves, and would have finished higher in the overall points rankings if he hadn't missed a few games with a minor injury), and maybe Sels (I have little confidence in Forest, but... they also have fairly kind early fixtures, in five of the first six, anyway); Neto might also be worth considering (if he keeps his place), and Sa (once Wolves are past their, um, first eight games....); maybe Leicester's Hermanssen (outstanding with the ball at his feet; although I worry about how well any of the promoted sides will stand up defensively, especially in the early weeks).  And Aaron Ramsdale will be well worth a thought, if his touted move to Forest (or anywhere else he'll be the starter) comes off..   [I wouldn't touch Flekken with a bargepole; he's one of the weakest keepers at that price-point anyway, and he has absolutely the worst first 5 games of any of them! However, I'd keep an eye on Valdimarsson, as I think he might be promoted over Flekken to become Brentford's No.1 - making him the only starting 4.0 keeper this year.]

At this point, it still doesn't look like any of the 4.0 keepers will get a start; and I don't like to clog up my bench with non-playing players - even at the start of the season. (Especially at the start of the season: I want to find cheap bench players that will get starts and hopefully show a little form, so that other FPL managers will take notice of them - and push their price up, so I can sell for a profit. Non-playing bench-fillers sooner or later drop in price and erode your squad value.)

If you do choose to adopt this tactic of taking a non-playing 4.0 keeper to free up an extra half a million for another spot in the squad, the only sensible route to it is to take the club back-up to your first-choice keeper (that way, you have a guaranteed replacement if your starter ever goes AWOL). I would go for Fabianski, since we saw last season that he's still very capable (and might perhaps even still be good enough to displace Areola on merit, without him picking up another injury); Bentley seems to be the only other possibility. (I suppose Virginia at Everton or Benda at Fulham could also work; but if you're going to spend 9 million on a pair of keepers, you'll almost certainly be better off with two starters.)

Defenders

Arsenal's three (almost) ever-presents - White, Gabriel, and Saliba - were way out in front of everyone else last season. And that seems very likely to be repeated again this year (with Calafiori possibly joining them as a preferred regular starter at left-back), with no other sides approaching them in defensive solidity.  (Of course, there's a lot of uncertainty at the start of this season, with new managers bedding in at Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, and Brighton - but it seems unlikely any of them will quickly rival Arsenal as the league's clean-sheet masters.)

City have too much talent to choose from at the back: hence 'Pep Roulette' is an inescapable hazard - last year, none of their defenders got more than 28 starts. (Well, OK, Walker managed 30; but that seems unlikely to happen again, as he's never really been Pep's absolute first-choice at right-back when other options are fit - and he has started showing signs of aging.)  As their clean-sheet record hasn't been great in the last couple of seasons either, I can't see how any of them are 'worth' 5.5 for FPL, let alone 6.0!

Likewise at Liverpool, while you might expect Van Dijk, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson to be natural starters as long as they're fit... Robertson has often been injured over the past two seasons, and his attacking returns have trailed off a lot from his peak a few years back; Van Dijk has rarely come close to justifying his 6.0-million price-tag in value-for-money terms (he's a signal example of how being excellent in real-world football often has little relationship to how good you are for FPL); and Trent.... is just too much of an unknown: he really needs a 200+ points season to earn back his money, and while he does potentially have that in him, I can't see it happening this year. (There are the additional problems for TAA of having to adapt to a new manager and a new style of play, his oft-stated desire to become more of a deep creative midfielder than a defender.... and the uncomfortable fact that young Conor Bradley revealed himself in his brief spell last season to be simply much better than him as an outright right-back...)

I think it's probably worth taking one or two of the Arsenal defenders; but no-one at the 5.5 or 5.0 point really impresses me as a 'must-have'. (although Munoz or Mitchell, Maatsen, maybe Cucurella, and Branthwaite - and De Ligt, if his price is going to be somewhere around there - might be worth considering)... when there are so many strong options at 4.5 this year.

Full-backs almost always give better returns than central defenders (much more chance of attacking contributions, at least with the more progressive ones), so long as they're in a side with a decent defensive record, so I'd focus on options like:  Robinson, Ait-Nouri, Mykolenko, Burn (although he looks likely to play in central defence this year, at least iniitally), Tete, Castagne, Kerkez, Emerson, Roerslev, Toffolo, Aina (if he gets a regular-ish start this year), perhaps Semedo (when he's fit again), Livramento or Hall (if they get a regular start at Newcastle this year)... maybe Reguilon (if he gets a start anywhere this season).

Amongst the cheaper centre-backs, I like Andersen, Tosin, Van de Ven, Guehi and Richards, Senesi and Zabarnyi, Murillo,,... maybe Quansah or Chalobah (if they ever get a decent run of starts).

There are some starting defensive options at 4.0 in the 3 promoted clubs, notably the dependable Belgian international centre-back Wout Faes at Leicester and Southampton's youngster Taylor Harwood-Bellis (who picked up a moderately impressive 3 goals and 6 assists in the Championship last year; but is already dangerously over-owned in FPL - when he disappoints initial hopeful expectations of him, his price might plummet).  However, I'd be very wary of taking any defenders (or keepers) from these clubs until we've seen how they can stand up for themselves in the Premier League; in recent years most of the newly-promoted sides have been woefully off the pace and have just served as punching-bags for most teams - you don't want defenders (even as emergency back-up on the bench) who offer you hardly any points at all, because they're regularly taking a thrashing.  [There is one 4.0 defender, though, at an established Premier League side, who looks likely to get at least a few starts early on, because of injuries at the club. You can dig that out for yourselves. I don't want too many people piling in on him!]

So, that's about it for the defensive half of the equation....

I'll try to get around to a 'Part Two' on the more attacking options this afternoon... or tomorrow.