The Crystal Ball revisited

 

Early in the season, I ventured some tentative predictions on where everyone would finish in the EPL this year. Now that we've just passed the one-third point of the season, I thought I should revisit these prognostications - because, of course, many of my initial speculations are looking profoundly wrong! I had, in fact, substantially revised these early expectations within just one or two more games!

I actually wrote this last week, before the Gameweek 13 round of matches had been played. But I didn't really see any reason to modify these opinions after the weekend's matches.

I'll start with probably my most controversial observation: I'm still maintaining a certain scepticism about Arsenal now being shoo-ins for the title. Although they have been superb over the last week of games (rather less so in the lucky draw against 10-man Chelsea on Sunday...), I fear that they might still hit the notorious 'Winter Wobble' - which has seemed to plague them every year under Arteta's reign. I think the return of Martin Odegaard from injury causes them some thorny problems, because Eze is much less effective out on the left (and Trossard and Martinelli and Madueke deserve time in that starting slot as well). I'm also concerned about how constipated Arteta seems to be in using squad rotation: he's not getting the best out of those left-flank players, or Mikel Merino; and we've hardly seen anything yet this year of Ben White, Ethan Nwaneri, or Myles Lewis-Skelly (players of that quality aren't going to be satisfied with token run-outs off the bench). It's also a bit disappointing - and potentially an area of weakness - that they haven't often looked likely to be very free-scoring; it would be a bit of a shame, I think, for our next champions to bore their way to the title on defensive solidity alone. I'd actually be very happy for Arsenal to win it; I've always rather liked the club, particularly in the peak Wenger era when they played such thrilling football; but I think it would be rather unsatisfying for them to claim the title by default, just because all of the other main contenders have proved to be so disappointing.

However, Arsenal's defensive superiority over everybody else is so massive at the moment that it will take a very strong challenge to topple them from the top spot, and I can't now see them finishing any lower than second. Currently, I think the likeliest team to deny them the crown are City. That's very largely down to the form of Erling Haaland, who's having his best season yet with the club (although his league form does now seem to be in a mini-slump over the last few games!): a forward who bags 30 to 35 (or 40...??) goals in a season can certainly carry you to a title. In the initial review, I said that I doubted that Pep could fix all of City's many problems and forge an effective new way of playing for them; but there are signs that he is doing so. They're still inconsistent, and often a bit careless defensively; but Donnarumma's formidable shot-stopping might possibly be salvaging some valuable extra points for them, and the more direct attacking style (long early balls to put the big Norwegian in behind to exploit his pace, and wingers actually taking on their full-backs and looking to play crosses or cut-backs into the box, rather than constantly checking back and recirculating the ball across the horseshoe) is tailored to Haaland's strengths. We still haven't seen the best of Foden (or only very intermittently....), or of Cherki, or Marmoush, or Ait-Nouri. And if Haaland picks up an injury, they're probably screwed. But at the moment, they are keeping Arteta's boys honest - and I think they might just pinch another title win.

Chelsea have been woefully inconsistent. They do lack incisiveness without Palmer pulling the strings for them, and Joao Pedro has rarely had the impact people were hoping for so far. But they are looking one of the best defensive sides, after Arsenal. And they finally seem to be on an upward trend again, after a very shakey spell over the past month or two, with Neto, Garnacho, and Estevao all looking very dangerous on occasions. With Palmer ready to play again, they might yet make a charge for the top. Although I think they probably don't quite have the experience and the strength-in-depth that they'd need to get ahead of City and Arsenal, they should be able to just about keep themselves in the conversation. However, the suspension of Caicedo for Gameweeks 14-16 could be a heavy blow for them in the run-up to Christmas.

The recent under-performance of Liverpool, Spurs, and Newcastle has enabled Bournemouth to become my highest-risers at the top of the table. I always thought they'd be able to do well this year; but at the moment, they're doing very, very well. Unfortunately, their final position probably depends more on whether those bigger clubs get their acts together than on anything they can do for themselves. But at the moment, I'm thinking that 'big club' revival might not happen, and Bournemouth might perhaps be able to cling on to a top four finish. They would be well worthy of it. I still give them a slight edge over Palace (although that's not how the table looks at the moment, after a string of disappointing/unlucky resutls) because I think their attacking threat is more diverse and consistent. Palace, though, may have the advantage in defence, and particularly with Henderson in goal, who's having an outstanding season. Adam Wharton is also starting to look very, very good as their central playmaker, and Yeremy Pino is proving a surprisingly capable replacement for Eze; it's only the patchy finishing of Mateta and Nketiah that's holding them back a little. Well, that and the burden of European football, which is leaving them visibly tired after each of their Conference League fixtures. (And you worry if Glasner's now coming out with open criticism of the ownership for a lack of investment in the squad last summer is an indication that he might soon be moving on.... If he departs the club mid-season, their prospects would suddenly be very much in doubt, I fear.)

Newcastle's poor start is threatening to stretch into a poor first half of the season. But I fancy that the return of Livramento and Hall from injury could be the catalyst for recovery. At least Woltemade has made an immediate impact for them. And they now finally have Wissa available to offer them some additional attacking options. If only Anthony Gordon could rediscover his best form, I think they could soon be challenging for the top six again. It would probably be a help if they could be eliminated from the Champions League as soon as possible next year.

I had major doubts about Liverpool's prospects right from the start of the season. I couldn't understand their transfer strategy over the summer - blowing huge sums of money on players for whom they seemed to have no obvious need: Wirtz, a playmaker who didn't suit their current style of play; Isak, a forward who didn't really suit their current style of play either, and seemed somewhat superfluous when they'd just bought the excellent Ekitike; and Kerkez and Frimpong, two defensively suspect attacking wing-backs who could only really be expected to prosper in something like a 3-4-3 formation. With Alisson out injured, Konate suffering a horrible dip in form, Salah now isolated out on the right flank and looking increasingly impotent, and even the great Van Dijk starting to show his age badly - the wheels have really fallen off for them now. It is such a spectacular reversal from the commanding form of last season that I'm now starting to doubt if Slot will be able to turn things around; or if the fans will trust him to be able to do so, even if he might. If the club don't start getting some good results again soon, I fear they might have to let the manager go early next year. It's very difficult to foresee where Liverpool's season will go from here: they've obviously got the quality to be able to get back into the top four, or at least the top six; but they way they're floundering at the moment, they could well slump even deeper into the bottom half of the table.

Brighton have been on a major uptick in recent weeks, with Welbeck enjoying an Indian Summer of a goal spree, and Minteh and Gomez on the flanks also being consistently dangerous. Verbruggen is looking very good in goal for them too. At the start of the season, I'd feared they'd be too inconsistent to climb into the top half, but I fancy their prospects a lot more at the moment. It's very difficult to choose between them and Sunderland (the most impressive and well-balanced promoted side we've seen in some years; although they'll surely suffer a bit of 'altitude sickness' - they're never a top four side, and will probably be lucky to hang on in or near the top ten) and Villa as the best of the rest in upper mid-table. Villa have a lot of good players, but are not playing consistently or convincingly (even when they put together a sequence of good results recently, I didn't feel they'd been playing all that well), and while the search for Watkins's missing lucky boots goes on, I don't have any great confidence about them being able to sustain their current position. Frankly, I don't quite understand what Emery's doing with them (lots of seemingly random rotations: sometimes he likes Buendia, sometimes not; sometimes he likes Maatsen, sometimes not; sometimes he likes Malen, sometimes not - it feels like the sort of desperate, unmotivated experimentation we see from Amorim rather than tactical finesse).

Spurs and Forest have been the biggest disappointments of the season so far. Forest were indeed very hard-hit by Evangelos Marinakis's foolish expulsion of Nuno Espiritu Santo at the start of the season, and the quirky, dubious choice of Ange Postecoglou ("Is it because I is Greek?") to replace him; that appointment did turn out to be an absolute disaster, but at least they rectified the error fairly promptly, and things seem to be picking up for them again under Sean Dyche. However, after such an horredous start, and with talismanic striker Chris Wood having rather lost his way this season, they probably won't be able to drag themselves up any further than lower mid-table - where they can expect to be rubbing shoulders with the likes of Manchester United and Spurs. Thomas Frank just hasn't found his feet at his new club yet, and the injury roster certainly isn't helping; but there are worrying signs that he's finding himself out of his depth. The utterly abject performance against Arsenal the other week has tried fans' patience, and his job will be under threat if he can't start producing some wins soon. And I rather fear the turning-point of United's season was their surprise win over Chelsea in Gameweek 5. Amorim must have been on the brink of getting sacked at that point, and that one result might have saved him - which, as I said in the first prognostication, was not likely to be a good thing for the club; his rigidity of approach, insane tactical naivety at times, and the relentless, unmotivated rotations that allow the team no time to settle down with each other, are dooming United to another messy season floundering in the lower-half. Only the attacking form of Bryan Mbeumo is keeping them in mid-table at the moment; and they're about to lose him - and Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui - to AFCON for up to a month, which is likely to be a massive setback for them.

Brentford, Fulham, and Everton are too inconsistent, and the first two too frail defensively, the last too limited in attacking threat, to get themselves out of the bottom third, although they shouldn't be in any danger of relegation. Curiously, Brentford and Everton and Fulham (and Leeds!) are the only teams whose ranking I have not adjusted in this second set or predictions.

As I said at the start of the year, I think Leeds are conspicuously the weakest side in the league this year, and absolutely assured of going down. I had initially had faith in the quality of Wolves's squad and in Vitor Pereira's leadership to turn around their wobbly start - but somehow things just kept getting worse and worse for them. Having thrown away points in all their early encounters with other lower-table sides, they're now facing quite a tough run of fixtures through December, and are thus unlikely to be able to initiate any sort of renaissance under Rob Edwards until next year. And they're surely too far adrift already to have any chance of survival. Avoiding the ignominy of finishing dead last, and setting a new record for the lowest-ever EPL points total, is about the most they can aim to salvage from this season now; I am still hopeful that they can achieve that. The other relegation spot looks likely to be contested between Burnley and West Ham. I'd like to see another promoted side stay up, but West Ham had the sense to get rid of the ineffectual Graham Potter fairly quickly, and their prospects are immediately looking rather better under Nuno. With Callum Wilson now coming back into scoring form, they could in fact shoot up towards mid-table. But I don't feel that their squad overall is really strong enough to deserve to rise above many other teams, and surviving-by-the-skin-of-their-teeth would be a pretty good outcome after the way they started the season. For now, though, I'm still going to have a sentimental bet on Burnley.

So,..... here's my revised set of predictions (with position changes from my original forecast shown in red):

I hope these hold up a bit better than my first attempt!!

They probably won't; football is such an unpredictable game. I'll return to this for a final review as we enter the run-in to the end of the season in late February.

Time for the CRYSTAL BALL...

 

I usually refrain from making firm predictions (because you look foolish if they turn out to be wrong!). And I'm particularly wary of venturing any opinions about the likely course of the League season when it's barely begun. We won't really have a firm idea of anyone's form for the early part of the season - team, or individual - for at least a few more weeks yet. Some of the big new signings may take a good while to find their feet. Nottingham Forest are reeling from an abrupt change of manager; and a few other clubs might be facing similar disruption soon (though, hopefully, that should be a positive for them, after the awkward transition phase). 

However, if you delay too long in entering into these traditional early-season prognostications, people accuse you of being too cautious, or of making things easier for yourself by waiting on everyone's early performances. Guessing everyone's league position come the end of the season is a bit of a mug's game; but I'll give it a go.

The title looks to me like a three-way race between Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Sorry, Pep; I think City's problems are too systemic for you to find a reliable cure; although you have so many top-class players that you're bound to be able to hang on in the upper reaches of the table, and might often challenge the top three - nevertheless, I don't think you'll quite be there at season's end. The one person who might cause me to revise that estimation is Phil Foden - if he were to have another season like that of two years ago. But I fear that Pep has broken him, and we might never see such a sustained run of brilliance, or even a sustained run of starts from him again.

An Arsenal fan on a Facebook forum a week or two back was crowing about the club's current squad, and was rash enough to ask, "Who can stop us this season?"  I immediately replied, "Arteta." While he is very tactically astute in many ways, he strikes me as excessively cautious in his general approach - and that tends to stifle some of the creativity out of a lot of his best players, and makes the side often somewhat predictable in its attacking play. Yes, they've got a decent forward now; but I don't think he's anywhere near as good as Isak or Joao Pedro - and Arsenal's problems run deeper than that anyway. I fancy them to do no better than 3rd (and possibly even a place or two lower).

However, I'm not entirely convinced about this transitional Liverpool team either: so far, they're looking a lot more vulnerable at the back, and a lot less fluent in attack. They have so many good players - and such a daunting habit of clawing out results late on in the game, even when they haven't played all that well - that I think they'll certainly be fairly dominant again; but maybe not quite as formidable as last year; there might be just enough of a vulnerability to allow someone else to slip ahead of them. So, I'll put Liverpool in 2nd place.

Now, I admit this is highly speculative - perhaps hopeful (I'd like to see a changing-of-the-guard: the top of the table has been monopolised by City and Liverpool for too long now) - of me, and I'm not very confident in this prediction; but I fancy Chelsea to sneak the title this year. I've always felt that a robust central midfield is a necessary foundation for any great team, and while Gravenberch and Zubimendi are outstanding players (and Rodri too, of course), I feel that Caicedo is next-level as a combative pivot player; and he's got some exceptionally strong back-up in Andrey Santos and Romeo Lavia. I think Cole Palmer could be a crucial difference-maker this year as well; again, for me, a much more dangerous playmaker than Wirtz, Szoboszlai or Odegaard. And Joao Pedro is shaping up to be at least nearly as dangerous in attack as Isak or Salah, and probably far better than Gyokeres. The Brazilian wunderkind Estevao is also showing hints that he might be able to have a very big impact this season. Now, I have reservations about some other aspects of the Chelsea team, and their overall squad depth (paradoxical, perhaps, as they have been so often mocked for carrying such a bloated player roster in the last few years; but they've had to let a lot of their better back-ups go now, and, outside of their ideal starting eleven, I'm not sure that they have that much strength in depth: Palmer and Joao Pedro, anyway, are irreplaceable). They've also been worryingly erratic in their form over the past year. If they can rediscover and sustain the kind of fluency and self-belief that carried them to an imperious success in the Club World Cup this summer, they can beat anyone. But will they??  Well, I'm hoping so...

I think Thomas Frank's rejuvenated Spurs and - I hope - Newcastle (another team I have a soft spot for; although Isak's departure is obviously a body-blow, and lack of squad depth could become a big issue for them with the additional challenge of Champions League football again this year) could be vying with Manchester City as the best of the rest. I would like to think that they might be capable of scrabbling above City, and perhaps even dislodging Arsenal from 3rd - but, realistically, 5th and 6th is probably the best they can do.

Next up, the teams that should have the quality and resilience to finish fairly comfortably top half, but can probably only reach the fringes of European qualification: Bournemouth, Everton, Forest, and Crystal Palace - in that order. Palace have one of the best defences in the League, but don't have a lot of squad depth, and I fear they may struggle to produce much attacking threat now that they've lost Eze. Everton, similarly, should thrive because of the strength of their defence, but also lack squad depth; and although Grealish and Ndiaye are so far looking like they could be two of the players of the season, I think they'd need a bit more quality up front to do any better than 7th or 8th (and they only have a chance of getting that high because so many other clubs look likely to suffer a bit of a drop-off this season). Bournemouth look the strongest of these mid-level teams to me at the moment, because they have a wealth of attacking options as well as a decent defence, and Andoni Iraola impresses me as one of the shrewdest and most effective of the league's coaches. It pains me to put Forest so low; and the reason I do so is that I worry they didn't strengthen their squad quite enough over the summer, rather than that I think Postecoglou will repeat his Spurs disaster with them. There is a lot of uncertainty about how well they'll fare, after the loss of an inspirational manager who'd brought them so much success, and having to undergo a transition to a very different tactical system (with some players, like Milenkovic and Wood, two of their biggest stars last season, likely to have to be sacrificed to that system); but ultimately they have a very strong defence and keeper, an excellent central pivot pair, and some outstanding creativity from Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, and Ndoye - so, I don't see them finishing too much lower than last year.

Then we have a litle cluster who are probably too good to be in any serious danger of relegation, but too inconsistent to get into a very competitive top half. And, at the moment, I'd put Manchester United in that group - and probably at the bottom of it. I think the lack of balance in the squad (and still a lack of depth: they have a fair bit of cover at the back, but no obvious stand-ins for the likes of Sesko, Mbeumo, or Fernandes) and the complete absence of a worthwhile central midfield unit, dooms them to another difficult season, even if they should soon ditch the obviously floundering Ruben Amorim. A prompt and strong change of manager could possibly drag them back up into European contention, and certainly to around mid-table; but I fear that if they persist with Amorim, they could have another season just as grim as last time and often be hovering dangerously near the relegation zone.

I'd put Wolves as the best of this upper bottom-half group - somewhat bold, perhaps, given what a dismal sttart they've had; but I have faith in Vitor Pereira as a manager, and I think they've got a lot of good players (I fancy Jhon Arias to catch fire soon), and a good overall balance in their squad. Also, they've got a very encouraging run of fixtures coming up, and so could get themselves well out of trouble within the next month or so. How long they're without star striker Jorgen Strand Larsen could be a critical factor, though, in how their season will develop. Brentford and Brighton, I think, will continue to be sides that cause problems for a lot of opponents with their strong attacking play, but will leak too many goals to push for the top half of the table.

Our three promoted sides have started quite brightly, and look a lot less awful than their predecessors in the last few seasons. But I fear they still don't have the overall quality to stay up - unless one or more of the established clubs does them a favour by having a really serious meltdown; and while there are a few candidates for such a disaster in the opening month of the season, I imagine most if not all will be able to turn things around to some extent. Leeds, I think, look much the weakest of the trio (relying on Calvert-Lewin for goals - not good), and can probably be written off fairly soon. There's not much to choose between Burnley and Sunderland, but Sunderland have impressed me as having a balance of strengths throughout the team; and again, the solidity that their classy veteran Granit Xhaka brings to central midfield might ultimately be decisive in their favour; they, I think, will be the one new club to stay up... if anyone does.

The clubs who, at the moment, look like they might make way for a promoted survivor are Fulham and Aston Villa - who have both punched massively above their weight in recent seasons, but now seem to have run badly out of steam. Villa in particular have had one of the worst starts to a season I can remember from any established club in a long ime;  they don't have the financial resources to attract many new players, and have lost a number who were very valuable to them (Douglas Luiz, Jhon Duran, Leon Bailey); and opponents seem to have sussed out Emery's style of play and found ways to neutralize it. They would currently be my favourites to allow Sunderland (or Burnley) to stay up,... were it not for West Ham. And West Ham have probably the weakest squad of any of the established teams (if you took away Bowen, Wilson, and Paqueta, you wouldn't fancy them to do very well in the Championship), as well as a deeply inadequate coach. As with Amorim at United, I think there could be a dramatic upturn in their performances if they change the manager promptly. But will that happen? If it doesn't, I might have an early bet on them being relegated.

So, my expected end-of-season running-order (for now, at least; nobody's going to be able to make many calls correctly this early in the season - I reserve the right to revise most of these views!) looks like this:

A few bold and quirky choices in there, I admit.

How many of these predicted rankings will prove to be somewhere near accurate?? I'll check back in May to review my results.

[Well, damn - I regret some of these calls already, after the Gameweek 5 matches! Chelsea have a potentially disastrous weakness between the sticks (and I don't think their current back-up keeper Jorgensen is good enough to deputise for any length of time), and don't have the resilience to bounce back from major set-backs; and, without Palmer, they are toothless. If Palmer -  and Joao Pedro - can stay fit and in-form all season, and Sanchez doesn't suffer too many more aberrations, they could still get themselves sort of in the the title scrap. But that's now looking doubtful; and I fear they've squandered too many points already to be likely winners. City, on the other hand, are starting to impress me as maybe being capable of pushing Liverpool. Arsenal still don't.... And if Liverpool keep scraping wins that they don't really deserve, they might prove to be unstoppable.

Wolves falling down at Leeds was the biggest shock of the weekend for me. I had expected them to get at least a draw, and probably win comfortably. This was a bit of a freak result, and it hasn't done anything to shift my opinion that Leeds are probably the weakest of this year's promoted sides. But Wolves are now so far adrift at the bottom of the table that simply fighting their way out of the relegation battle is a huge challenge, and a mid-table finish is already starting to look all but impossible. A rather fortuitous win for Manchester United hasn't moved the needle in their favour; possibly the reverse, as it might buy Amorim some more time - which I'm sure will ultimately be detrimental. Brentford are looking worryingly rocky in defence, and there's still no sign of a revival from Villa. The beneficiary of all of that doom-and-gloom will probably be Fulham, who look like they could do a fair bit better than I initially suggested.

I'll try to review this selection perhaps every three months or so, to see how things are changing as the season progresses.]