The Chelsea treble-up??

 

I am very wary about trebling up on one club at any time, for any reason - but especially early in the season (when we really don't know how anyone's form is settling down yet).

And I would almost always avoid even doubling up on one club in the same area of the pitch; trebling up in the same area always seems simply crazy to me.

At the back, where you're generally only starting three defenders anyway, if you take all, or almost all of that regular starting three from one club - you leave yourself screwed if that club has a fixture postponed for any reason (foul weather, food poisoning outbreak, faulty floodlights, bomb scare, or reaching the League Cup Final....), as well as whenever they're facing a really tough opponent where you can't fancy their chances of getting a clean sheet too highly,... and in those unfortunate occasional games where they somehow just don't 'show up', or suffer some bad breaks (an early penalty conceded or an early sending-off can scupper even the strongest team's chances in a match). It's tempting to go in heavy for the defence of an exceptional team like Arsenal who are keeping clean sheets every other week; but even Arsenal, in their extraordinary season last year, failed to keep clean sheets in half their games - while many other teams did. Last year, there was a case for taking 2 from the back at Arsenal (2 defenders, or a defender and Raya), especially in the latter part of the season when they rallied from a slight 'wobble' to grind out an extraordinary succession of back-to-back clean sheets. But going for 3 would not have brought any additional value; it would have limited your rotation options too much (as well as leaving you without any room to bring in any more advanced players from the club).

In attack, few teams ever manage to be sufficiently prolific, or to share their attacking contributions around evenly enough, to make it worth getting 3 players from them. There is essentially a finite pool of attacking points which is shared between the goalscoring midfielders and forwards; and if 1 or 2 of them have a really good week, usually none of the others will. 

Plus, of course, the same points apply as above for the defence: you're leaving yourself vulnerable to catastrophic disruption from (possibly unexpected) blank gameweeks, and you're denying yourself the opportunity to take a defender or keeper from that club.  So, it's generally not even worth thinking about to treble up on one club in attack.

However,.... might the current Chelsea case be an exception??

They are currently looking so prolific in attack that the pool of points they generate in most weeks could be very large. Thus far, these attacking points are being shared almost exclusively between Joao Pedro, Rogers, and Palmer; and they are being shared fairly evenly and consistently between the three of them (Joao Pedro: 3 goals, 3 assists; Morgan Rogers: 3 goals, 1 assist; Cole Palmer: 2 goals, 2 assists).

And at the moment, the Chelsea defence is dreadful, conceding almost as many goals as their rampant attack is scoring; so, no-one wants their keeper or any of their defenders.

So, my two usual key arguments against such a treble-up might not apply here. And the misgiving about the possible impact of 'off days' or Acts of God might be exaggerated: we do sometimes see teams going for long spells - occasionally, perhaps, even a whole season - without suffering any such misfortunes.

However, I think there's still a problem of opportunity cost in putting all your eggs in one basket like this. Sure, Joao Pedro is on fire at the moment, and is looking as if he might possibly be able to challenge Haaland for the Golden Boot. But Palmer and Rogers are not currently in the Top 5 midfielders; there are other choices, possibly better choices out there. And if Chelsea were to suffer a sudden downturn in form - or just hit a little cluster of tougher fixtures - it's more awkward to ditch 2 or 3 players in a hurry, rather than just a single one. This is why you avoid double-ups and treble-ups: it doesn't spread risk - it makes things unduly difficult for you when you want to pivot away from that club, short- or long-term. You're almost always much better off spreading your midfield and forward selections across as many different clubs as possible.

Moreover, these are expensive picks: Palmer, despite a season ruined by injuries last year, was the most expensive midfielder after Bruno Fernandes - at 9.5 million; Joao Pedro and Morgan Rogers were both 7.5 million, and are rapidly climbing towards 8.0 (and although that price-point isn't usually quite 'premium', this year, when there are fairly few players placed in the upper price-brackets, it feels like it: for that 17 million that Palmer and Rogers originally cost, you could afford, for example, Bruno Fernandes and Pascal Gross,.... or three high-performing 'budget' picks!!).

My feeling is that, however well Palmer and Rogers are currently doing, there are still other midfield options who are doing about as well or a little better; and the benefits of spreading risk outweigh a slight short-term deficit anyway (go for Mbeumo or Gakpo or Cherki or Gibbs-White or Odegaard or Tavernier or Hinshelwood or Gross, etc., etc. - they'll surely work out in the longer-term, even if they don't quite over a short run of games). Personally, I would probably only go for Palmer or Rogers if I didn't have Joao Pedro up front. Saka is looking at least as promising as Palmer at the top of the price spectrum; and there are several rival options at or below Rogers's price-point. And if you do believe that Chelsea's attack are going to continue to massively out-perform any other team's, against all opposition, and you want further representation from them in addition to JP, then.... pick one of them, don't plunge in for both.

So, yes, I see the temptation of the treble Chelsea attack. But I am not finding it hard to resist it.

To Konsa, or not to Konsa?

Ezri Konsa is seen by many as being an irresistibly affordable 'route into the Arsenal defence'. And I can see that temptation: while he has a start in the team, he does indeed represent a very attractive 'value'. But as soon as he loses that start, he becomes a huge waste of money. And I think most of his recent adopters have been rather blindly over-optimistic about his prospects of keeping his start for very long.

Indeed, there does seem to have been quite a divergence of opinion on Konsa in the FPL community over the past few weeks: while he has now seen over 1,000,000 transfers in during that period, he's also suffered around 530,000 transfers out - and his price did in fact briefly dip down to 4.4 million just after his move to Arsenal (either managers were shocked/disappointed when he didn't immediately start, or just recognised that his prospects of a regular start might now be much lower; Villa are a much weaker defensive team, but at least he would have been playing every single minute for them).

Those who rushed in for Konsa now feel vindicated because he's started the last two games. They mostly seem to have been convincing themselves that he was always bound to move into the Arsenal side almost immediately, and would remain a fixture until Saliba is fully fit again (which seems as though it might be at least a couple more months). But the only arguments they seemed to be able to adduce for this bold assumption were that he was an England player (well, yes; but he's only just started becoming a first-choice starter - and England have been conspicuously short of much established quality to draw upon in the centre-back position for a while now; so, that's really not a very powerful recommendation) and that Arsenal wouldn't have paid over 50 million quid for him just to be a bench player (although they have recently spent a ton of money on players like Gyokeres, Eze, and Guimaraes - who are obviously going to spend most of their time on the bench); both rather spurious justifications, relying on 'status' rather than merit.

The fact is, Konsa has only got the chance to be integrated into the starting lineup so quickly because Christhian Mosquera suffered a muscle injury. This problem appears to be fairly minor, and he might be available for selection again any day now; indeed, Arteta hinted that he might have been ready to participate against Sunderland at the weekend (although, in fact, he was not even on the bench). I like Konsa and rate him fairly highly; but I don't think he's clearly better than Mosquera, who has looked absolutely outstanding whenever he's been called upon to deputise for Saliba over the last 12 months. 

And even if Konsa did offer potential advantages over Mosquera in certain aspects of his game, a defence relies very heavily on its members developing a close rapport with the rest of the back-line and the keeper: a rapport that depends not only on an intimate understanding of teammates' strengths and weaknesses, their style of play and style of communication on the pitch, but on the underlying personal relationships too - a deep trust that grows out of genuine camaraderie and friendship; that level of understanding doesn't come about overnight. Moreover, Arteta is a notoriously detail-oriented coach, and you might expect that it may take some weeks - if not perhaps even a couple of months - before a new player could fully absorb all of his tactical precepts. For these reasons alone, I thought - and still think - it unlikely that Konsa would be preferred for an immediate starting spot in the Arsenal defence over more established players, unless an injury crisis creates an opening for him.

I would certainly prefer Mosquera to Konsa - at least for now - if only for his experience within Arteta's system and his familiarity with the rest of the defensive unit. But I'm not Mikel Arteta! Who knows the mind of Mikel Arteta?? Many Arsenal fans like to assume that they do; but they're deluding themselves.

There are other strong options - possibly/probably stronger than Konsa! - for the role of Saliba's stand-in as well. Timber's now recovered from injury, and has occasionally played in that second centre-back slot quite capably. I can see Arteta might be a bit concerned about his physical suitability for the role (he's only about 5'10" tall, so probably lacks the commanding aerial presence of most of his other centre-back options), but he could slot in at right-back or left-back, allowing White or Calafiori to partner Gabriel. Hincapie too could play in that position, or take over at left-back, again allowing White or Calafiori to move into the centre.

So, Konsa cannot as yet be regarded as a nailed starter, the obvious, usual first choice. And even if he does soon appear to have become such, with so many other strong candidates for a start in defence, it seems doubtful to me that he can ever be relied upon as an invariable starter.

And even if Konsa does get a regular run of starts, he's under a lot of pressure from the 'club quota' too. With so many Arsenal players clamouring for consideration in an FPL squad, is his cheapness really a decisive recommendation? Konsa doesn't seem likely to offer very much attacking threat, and with Arsenal dominating possession so easily against most teams, he might not produce that many 'defcon' points either (Gabriel is the only Arsenal defender who's regularly registering those so far). Calafiori is looking much the most appealing pick from the Arsenal defence, with a regular prospect of assists or goals as well as his share of the collective clean sheet bonuses. But White has also looked a very strong option; and Timber will probably become so as well, if he regains a regular start. Odegaard and Saka have started the season in blistering form; Rice is likely to again be a very dependable source of midfield points; the new winger Tzolis has shown a lot of promise; Kai Havertz is gaining attention as a potential 2nd/3rd forward pick; and David Raya is currently by far the most popular goalkeeper pick (with nearly 40% ownership; I don't agree with it myself - several of the 5.0 and 4.5-million-pound options are likely to at least do very nearly as well; but after his penalty save against Sunderland, he is for now at the top of the goalkeeper charts, so his owners aren't likely to reconsider their choice for a while). 

I think it's a bad idea to treble up on any team this early in the season. Apart from anything else, it's nice to be able to keep the fexibility to easily bring in a third player when form or fixtures strongly encourage it (will Havertz clearly establish himself as a leading forward option? will Tzolis hit a hot streak?). And you really don't ever want to be more than doubled-up from the same club in one area of the pitch. So, if you already have Calafiori and another Arsenal defender or David Raya, there simply isn't any room for Konsa. And if you pick Konsa over one of those other Arsenal options (perhaps one you already owned, and chose to let go) - are you sure that money you saved is going to buy you more points in another area of the pitch than it would have done by sticking with Calafiori (or White or Raya or Gabriel or whoever)??

Perhaps Konsa will keep his start over Mosquera and the rest. Perhaps he'll get a long run of games for the next two or three months. Perhaps he'll luck into one or two headed goals and get some strong 'defcon' returns. And perhaps he'll prove to be not only the cheapest Arsenal defender but one of their best points-returners too. But to me, none of those things seem terribly likely. This selection might work out,.... but it is a very big gamble. (Not the sure thing his adopters are trying to convince themselves it is!!)

Sheep Picks (22) - the two biggest transfers of the week!

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

I've mentioned once or twice before in this series that the volume of transfers in for a player each gameweek (one of the filters you can select for viewing the player list on the FPL website's 'Statistics' page) is a pretty good guide to who the 'sheep picks' of the moment are. And while I wouldn't suggest that you should never consider buying the most popular transfer of the week,... that is a good general rule.

In the first week of the new season, there have been two massive frontrunners in the transfer traffic; and I wouldn't touch either of them with a bargepole.

Brighton left-back, Maxim De Cuyper, carries a lot of attacking threat, and with major injury problems for both of the club's usual starters at left-wing, Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh, going into the season, it did seem almost certain that the young Belgian would be getting at least a few starts as an outright winger. And then Brighton had a storming opening game, against a lamentably awful Villa, and De Cuyper snagged a goal and an assist to wind up as the 'Player of the Week' with an enviable 17-point haul. So,... now everybody's piling in for him (well, 413,000 new owners this week, and counting), forcing his price to click up to 4.6 million. This is a classic case of chasing last week's points. That was almost certainly the biggest haul he'll get all season, and there is no particular reason to hope that he'll even manage double-digit returns again very often. They're away to Chelsea this week, who've started the season in terrifying form!

Now, admittedly, the two players who might displace him both seem to be in quite a bad way, and might be missing for another couple of months or so. But Brighton's sequence of fixtures in this period is extremely daunting: one of the toughest early runs for any team this season, in fact. They're an erratic, upper-mid-table side, who can struggle against anyone, they never have any reliably 'easy' fixtures; and certainly not the top four clubs, all of whom they face in the next 8 Gameweeks, three of them away. Brentford, Sunderland, and maybe Palace will also be tough tests for them; Leeds aren't at all the 'green fixture' opponent FPL's ludicrous 'Fixture Difficulty Rating' currently assesses them as, and Hull might not be either, given the impressive way they started their season last week against Manchester United. Brighton might not be keeping many - or any!! - clean sheets between now and the end of November. If De Cuyper can keep producing good attacking returns, maybe that won't matter so much; but one has to keep in mind that his points are likely to be undercut by games in which his side concede a lot of goals.

An attacking player classified in the game as a 'defender' is gold dust in FPL, and I think it would have been worth taking a chance on De Cuyper for that reason in the initial squad. However, paradoxical as it may seem, I just don't think he's worth a transfer to bring in at the moment. He's probably already produced his best gameweek of the season, and you missed out on it. His prospects over the next 8 or 9 fixtures look fairly poor. And after that, he's quite likely to be back to fighting Kadioglu for a start as a conventional left-back.

Brentford's new central defensive midfielder, Mamadou Sangaré, does indeed look a hell of a player; and I think he might be transformative for Brentford, lifting them to be more convincingly an upper-third side, and helping a number of his teammates to become rather stronger potential FPL assets. However, as with De Cuyper above, I think the 350,000-odd managers who've rushed in for him since his superb 14-point debut last weekend are greedily assuming that he'll produce double-digit hauls almost every week. And I see no case for that. Last week was clearly an absolute freak: Brentford just barely kept a clean sheet against an utterly woeful Spurs (Kelleher still had to make a few saves, despite a paucity of attacking threat from a poor opponent), while Sangaré only just barely crept up to the 'defcon' threshold to earn additional 'defensive points', and his 2 assists were both somewhat fortuitous (very low combined xA rating on the pair of them!), significantly helped by poor goalkeeping from Kinsky (prodding his low square-ball into the path of Lewis-Potter, and then parrying his weak-ish shot straight back at Janelt). I doubt if he's going to be any sort of regular - let alone prolific - producer of attacking contributions; and while he does look likely to produce 'defcon points' pretty well, they're extremely unreliable, and ultimately not worth getting excited about on their own. There's also a club quota issue to consider, with Kelleher a fairly popular cheaper goalkeeper, Thiago currently one of the most popular forwards, and Kayode a very promising 4.5-million prospect in defence; and then there are a number of other midfielders - Schade, Ouattara, Lewis-Potter, Damsgaard, and Janelt [or now, perhaps, Anthony as well] - who do definitely offer the prospect of probably much more regular attacking returns than Sangaré. This is a player who might just conceivably be worth considering as a cheap 5th-seat midfield pick if he were from a weak club; but at Brentford, he just doesn't get into the conversation.

[In Gameweek 2, Brighton - unsurprisingly - got absolutely battered by Chelsea, and De Cuyper ended up with 0 points for the week (lucky, really, that he didn't get into negative points; although many of his new owners might have patiently left him on the bench for this game). Sangaré again reached the 'defcon' points threshold, but only just, and didn't do much else in the game (registered a fairly low BPS tally - because it doesn't give much credit to defensive contributions); he returned 4 points, but was comfortably out-scored by his midfield teammates Lewis-Potter and Schade. In GW3, Sangaré and De Cuyper both received bookings, and Sangaré was withdrawn at half-time (perhaps to avoid the risk of him picking up a second card); De Cuyper did at least come up with another assist, for a better-than-nothing 4 points, but Sangaré had a nul-pointer.]

This year's EARLY 'Sheep Picks'

I often express my dismay and disappointment that so many FPL managers rush in for the same players - 'sheep picks' based on herd instinct, just following a fad rather than formulating a rationale of one's own.

As I outlined in my annual survey of the pre-season selection landscape over the past couple of days (Pt. 1: Goalkeepers and Defenders, Pt. 2: Midfielders and Forwards), we have an unusually broad selection of tempting options this year, with probably at least 80-100 players worthy some consideration for the initial squad. 

Given that breadth of choice, no-one should be above 50% ownership (there are strong arguments to be made against the premium options in each position category: Haaland, Fernandes, Gabriel, and Raya), and really only a handful should be much above 10%. And yet... currently, 16 players have been selected by more than 20% of managers, and a further 27 have more than 10% ownership; and many of these are not the players who should be the most selected! In the online environment today, people assume that what a lot of other people seem to be doing must be right; when, as often as not, it's quite the reverse.

When I saw the snapshot above of the currently 'most selected' starting eleven, I thought to myself: 'If you have more than 3 or 4 of those, you're being severely unimaginative. If you have more than about 6, you're probably not going to do very well.'

The 2026-27 Pre-Season 'Sheep Picks'

Oh, where to start?? There are so many this year!!

As I reasoned last week, there is a strong - just about overwhelming - case for Haaland, whatever his price, because his points-potential is so much higher than any other forward's. But in that same post I argued that Bruno Fernandes and Gabriel (and David Raya too) are simply too expensive. They had exceptional seasons last year, and it would be unrealistic to suppose that they can produce similar or greater returns this year; on the contrary, there are good reasons to expect that their points totals this time will be substantially lower. They might indeed start the season very strongly, they might well again be the top points-returners in their positions, their owners are unlikely to be dissatisfied with them; but they won't do quite as well as last year - and hence, even if they do claim the top of their position rankings again, the gap to the next best isn't likely to be all that much. You pay a big premium for a player to gain a substantial differential advantage, an expectation of a sizeable points-lift over their closest position rival; Haaland always offers that - the other three don't. These premium-price players are just about 'affordable', but probably only at the cost of going a bit light somewhere else in your squad. And it just doesn't seem worth it - when there are keepers 1-million pounds cheaper than Raya, defenders 2.5-3.0-million pounds cheaper than Gabriel, and midfielders 5.0-6.0-million pounds cheaper than Bruno Fernandes.... who might do very nearly as well.

[And even with Haaland, there is an argument that one might wait-and-see on him for a week or two. As he returned to training so late this year, he's unlikely to be fully sharp straight away, and might get quite short minutes in the first few games.]

Joao Pedro is a justifiable forward choice - but not such an obviously superior option as to merit more-than-60% ownership! Managers are getting a bit carried away by his glut of goals in pre-season. It's always nice for strikers to get their confidence up by finding the net regularly; but pre-season form rarely carries over into the start of the regular season (your granny could probably score a goal in some of these half-pace practice games). For me, he's probably going to be a little way behind Alexander Isak and Igor Thiago as the most consistent 2nd forward pick, after Haaland.

Antoine Semenyo is a player I appreciate in the real world, but am lukewarm about in Fantasy: his returns tend to be a bit up-and-down; and he often plays well without producing any FPL points. And with City currently looking so flakey in their Maresca transition period, I'd probably avoid any of their players - maybe even Haaland?! - for a few weeks until things start settling down for them. And I feel he was operating near the top of his envelope last time; he's another one like Bruno Fernandes who isn't likely to improve on last year's total, and might well come up quite a bit short of it. Also like Bruno - and Declan Rice - he was somewhat flattered by the dearth of points from other midfielders last year; even with a similar points total, he might be well outside the Top 5 midfield points-returners this season. Also, although 8.5-million isn't a particularly high price, it is this year in relative terms - because so few players have been given a high price this time: only 3 midfield players are more expensive than Semenyo, and no-one else is priced with him in the 8.5 tier; there are 9 players priced 0.5 or 1.0 million cheaper; and there are nearly 60 more players priced from 1.5-2.5 million cheaper - several of whom you might fancy to do nearly as well as Semenyo this time, if not a little better. (And of course, when they're that much cheaper, they don't actually have to do better than him to be preferable picks.)

Pedro Porro and Riccardo Calafiori always excite us with their attacking threat; and they almost invariably disappoint our early optimism about them. The new-look Spurs will probably take a while to find their feet, so I'm wary of taking any of their players from the start of the season. (The same argument, of course, applies to Antonin Kinsky and Martin Dubravka, currently the second and third most popular goalkeeper picks; as I mentioned yesterday, they are an appealingly cheap pairing - but it's almost always worth paying that half a million extra for a pair of starting keepers; and people who've gone for non-playing Dubravka without Kinsky ahead of him.... are just pissing 4-million quid away for nothing.)  Calafiori, as well as being worryingly injury-prone, seems to drift in and out of favour with Arteta. Timber, due back in training any day now, might well be preferred to him immediately at left-back (and indeed, Hincapie sometimes was last season); and they've just acquired Konsa as an additional option at right-back. I'm a big fan of Calafiori; but I'm not convinced that Arteta is, and I'm not confident he'll get a long run of starts. Luke Shaw is another super-popular defensive pick at the moment, presumably because he's so generously priced at 4.5 million. But his age, his injury record, and the fact that the club have been trying to buy a replacement for him this summer all counsel caution; I wouldn't be suprised to see Dalot or Mazraoui starting ahead of him at left-back. (While De Ligt and Martinez are out of commission, it seems likely that Ayden Heaven will be starting alongside Maguire in the opening games; he could be an attractive alternative for a cheap representative in the United defence.)

Virgil Van Dijk... is getting old. He was often looking so slow and erratic last season that there was a serious danger he might be dropped - or would have been, if Liverpool had any cover in central defence! He only ended up with a good overall points total because of his exceptionally good attacking returns, not his defensive performance; and that really was a bit of a freak, far more than he'd managed in any previous season (and such melee goals from set-pieces are likely to be much less common this season, as refs tighten up on grappling in the box, and defences get better at reading the set routines). Liverpool will probably be quite defensively solid most of the time, and keep a decent number of clean sheets; and Virgil will probably do quite well on the 'defcon' points, when opponents do manage to put them under a bit of pressure. But I'd expect his points return this time to be a fairly middling 140-160 - simply not worth that huge 6.5-million price-tag.

I said yesterday in my review of the forward options that the sudden enthusiasm for Dominic Calvert-Lewin is quite baffling. He had one moderately good (not brilliant) and mostly (not entirely) injury-free season last year - for the first-time ever. There's no compelling reason to assume he can pull that off again; and even if he can, he's not that strong a pick, even in his price category; in fact, I'd rate him towards the bottom of the 6-million-pound forward options. When a player who doesn't merit a 5% ownership is up nearer 30%, the odour of sheep-shit is heavy in the air.

I like Morgan Rogers as a player; but as an FPL asset, he's severely unconvincing. He's posted decent - but not outstanding - season totals over his two years at Villa; but those seasons were both characterised by a few brief bursts of high-scoring and long runs of blanks. It's not obvious how he'll fit into the set-up at Chelsea (I'd like to see Enzo Fernandez leave, to 'make room' for him), and he might not immediately be a regular starter; and even if he is, he'll probably take a little while to settle in. If we're only going for one Chelsea midfielder,.... it's likely to be Palmer that claims that spot.

At the moment, with City looking so disorganised at the back in the Community Shield last weekend, and there being so much uncertainty about the preferred defensive lineup under the new manager, we really shouldn't be taking any of their defenders in the initial squad. Nico O'Reilly hasn't looked in great form since the end of last season, and is quite likely to be displaced at left-back by fit-again Josko Gvardiol; but if he isn't, Gvardiol will surely play instead in the centre-back pair, at the expense of Marc Guehi. And yet, by some strange logic, O'Reilly and Guehi are currently the most popular defensive picks from City, with massive ownership levels. Until we know that they are regular starters - and that City aren't going to leak goals every week, like they just did in Cardiff - they shouldn't be in anybody's squad!

Declan Rice has nearly 20% ownership, young Greek winger Christos Tzolis is at 19%, and newly signed defender Ezri Konsa is at 16% and on the rise. This is presumably a response to how formidable Arsenal looked in the Community Shield this year. But Rice didn't make much impact in that game (having come on at half-time for a limping Guimaraes), and after carrying an injury all summer and looking seriously fatigued for England, he seems likely to be out of action or given rationed minutes for at least the first game or two; and anyway, his rate of returns, though fairly consistent, just isn't high enough to warrant long-term inclusion in an FPL squad (it was only that consistency that got him such a high final ranking last year, that and the fact that all of the leading creative/goalscoring midfielders had horrible seasons; he was rarely in the Top 5, or even the Top 10 midfielders over any short run of games; and I think he's unlikely to be in the Top 10 overall at the end of this season). Tzolis has looked very lively in pre-season, but there's no guarantee that that form will translate into Premier League performance; indeed, there's no guarantee that he'll be an immediate or invariable starter (it's a concern to me that the left-wing position is the only slot in the Arsenal team that isn't nailed-down to an obvious first-choice starter - and thus has to be used to give token minutes to all of the back-up players, just enough to keep them 'happy'; not just the specialist wingers, Martinelli and Madueke, but also Jesus and Eze, and even perhaps Havertz or Guimaraes, on occasion; thus, even if Tzolis does immediately get the nod as the preferred starter there, I can't see him playing every week). And folks are now getting very excited about Konsa being a 'cheap route' into the Arsenal defence!!  But is he going to start - ever??? I can't see how; he looks like back-up to the back-up to me. He's only a makeshift right-back, and he doesn't look nearly as good as Mosquera at centre-back (or as good as White or Calafiori or Timber, who can also play that position). And Bruno Guimaraes, likewise, is surely destined to be a back-up rather than a regular starter. He's got excellent value as a utility player, versatile enough to deputise ably for Rice, Zubimendi, or Odegaard - but he's not actually better than any of those three in their particular roles. (Many Arsenal fans have grown disgruntled with Odegaard in the past couple of seasons, and were assuming that Bruno would immediately displace him. That never seemed likely to me, since Odegaard is very tight with Arteta, and plays a crucial role in organising the implementation of his coach's tactical instructions on the pitch; in that, he's probably become pretty much irreplaceable - at least in Arteta's eyes - even if his performance-level had tanked; but he was clearly back to his very best in the Community Shield - so Bruno is surely going to be bench-warming as soon as Rice is fully fit again.)

Illiman Ndiaye is another player I really like, but he had a pretty underwhelming season last year, in large part because David Moyes kept shunting him around to different positions, rather than regularly starting him in his preferred left-wing slot; and also, perhaps, because there was no regular - or reliable - forward playing in front of him. I don't see that changing this year. In fact, I rather fear that Everton 'over-performed' last year, and might slump into relegation trouble again this time. There are a lot of good midfield options at 6.0-million this year, and Ndiaye doesn't really look to be the most promising of them.

Issa Diop and Milan van Ewijk are way out in front as the most popular 'budget' defender options. But if you go without one or more of the premium picks, it shouldn't be difficult to find an extra half million to spend on your 5th defender - so that you can actually get someone decent,... rather than someone who's likely to ship 80-100 goals over the season!! Even if you do insist on having a 4.0-million-pound player to stretch your budget, I'd rather have Coventry's Bobby Thomas.

Meanwhile, Pascal Gross and Enzo Le Fée are the two most popular 'budget' midfielders - why? There are so many more tempting (and also temptingly cheap) midfielders at Brighton alone! Gross is now 35, and has surely been reacquired more for dressing-room 'influence' than for regular starts. Le Fée is a decent player, but there are at least half a dozen other options in that price-bracket who should be getting more attention.

So, good grief, that's at least two-thirds of the Top 30 or so current picks who are at least rather dubious, if not outright bonkers choices!!!

Sheep Picks (21)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Just a quick one this week, as I see so many rather bizarrely over-optimistic selections finding their way into people's squads for Double Gameweek 33.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the third most transferred-in player this week, with nearly 200,000 FPL managers piling in for him already (and still 24 hours or so to go before the deadline). Admittedly, Leeds have perhaps the most attractive pair of fixtures of any of the doubling teams - though neither game is likely to be straightforward, especially as Leeds's form has faltered somewhat over the last couple of months, falling back a long way from their rousing rally in December and January. Calvert-Lewin has been woefully inconsistent throughout his career; and although he's arguably been having his best season ever, he hasn't looked like a really consistent threat - especially recently. In fact, he hasn't scored a league goal in 10 weeks now; and hasn't really looked likely to; he missed a penalty against Palace last month! Indeed, you wonder if he might not be in danger of being dropped for, at least rotated a bit more with Lukas Nmecha. I think you could bet your house on this guy getting a double-blank this week. Absolutely not a player worth dropping one of your regular starters for.

Dominic's teammate, Noah Okafor, is also a rather dubious pick. This looks like a classic case of chasing last week's points; people are enamoured of him just because he scored a brace against a very sub-par Manchester United on Monday night. Sure, after that performance, he might keep the start this weekend. But he has been fairly rarely used by the club so far this season. And Brenden Aaronson and Ethan Ampadu are surely much stronger options from the Leeds midfield.

The same phenomenon of being blinded by a recent - untypical, and almost certainly one-off! - success is luring many people towards Mats Wieffer. He's a great player. But he's currently playing out of position as a makeshift right-back. He's not a prolific goalscorer, and Pascal Gross or Jack Hinselwood are surely better prospects from the Brighton midfield - if you insist on overloading on doubling players. And although Brighton have been showing some good form in the past couple of months, it's very difficult to know what they might get out of games against Spurs and Chelsea (potentially strong teams.... currently in awful form).

I don't think I'd be going in for any additional Brighton or Leeds players just for this Gameweek. If you already have Van Hecke or Kadioglu or Verbruggen, or Struijk or Bogle or Aaronson.... fine; stick with solid players like that, who should be worthwhile assets through the remainder of the season. But bringing in extra players from clubs like this, with fixtures like this - it's not worth it.

A little bit of Zen (86)

"Only dead fish swim with the stream."

Malcolm Muggeridge

This quotation, or sometimes a slight variation of it, seems to get attributed to all sorts of people online, including.... Ernest Hemingway (I'm not sure he was ever that funny; not often, anyway). But it seems to be most commonly and convincingly credited to Muggeridge. He was a journalist, essayist, and satirist of some repute in his middle years, but by the '70s and '80s (the time of my childhood), in his dotage, he had declined into an endlessly parodiable - and possibly, to some extent, consciously self-parodying - bombastic social commentator on late-night discussion programmes on the television, a cantankerous grouch-for-hire.

Rediscovering this old gem of a line has got me wondering if I should rename my 'Sheep Picks' series on here (lampooning the foolishness that the 'herd instinct' in FPL so often leads people into),... or at least start illustrating it occasionally with some dead fish photos.

Sheep Picks (20)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

And so, as we approach Gameweek 30, I'm going to go out on a limb rather, and query the current popularity (perhaps over-popularity...) of a few admittedly rather good players. I can see the arguments in favour of these guys; and they might work out. But I have serious doubts about whether they'll work out as well as their new adopters fondly hope.

So, first up, then, we have Chelsea's Brazilian forward, Joao Pedro. Now, sure, he's the most 'in form' striker of the moment, has looked superb over the past month or so. My objection here is primarily that anyone buying him now is woefully late-to-the-party. And indeed, I fear there is a chance that the 'party' may shortly be winding down. If you fancied that Chelsea might benefit from a 'new manager bounce' when Liam Rosenior came onboard in January, and/or were optimistic that the long-awaited return of Cole Palmer might soon have a transformative effect for the team, or were just encouraged by an approaching run of fairly 'soft' fixtures - then that would have been a very smart gamble: the optimum time to bring JP in would have been around Gameweek 22 or Gameweek 23.  The nearly 300,000 FPL managers who've acquired him since last week have been sleeping on his hot streak! And while I do acknowledge he is looking supremely confident at the moment, finishing superbly, playing again with some of that swagger we saw in his debut appearances in the Club World Cup last summer,... his numbers have also been a little flattering - partly because of a lack of competition among the forwards (almost everyone else, Haaland especially, has had a bit of a quiet spell over the last two months), and partly because quite a few things have broken kindly for him (he's gained a few assists for 'winning' rather soft penalty awards; and he was teed up for his hattrick last week by Garnacho selflessly squaring the ball to him rather than shooting himself - when does that ever happen??). Also, he has been exploiting a series of exceptionally inviting fixtures: apart from the recent visits to Arsenal (where, of course, he blanked) and Villa (who looked formidable up until the end of last year, but whose form has now crashed), they've been playing all the bottom-of-the-table clubs since late January. Their next four opponents - pacey Newcastle (though at least they don't 'travel' well, and will probably be preoccupied with the looming second leg of their Barcelona tie), defensively stolid Everton, and utterly terrifying City and United - could prove much tougher. And anyone who piles in for a player who's just scored a hattrick usually ends up disappointed; he's very, very unlikely to get a haul like that again in the next few weeks - maybe not all season. 

Even worse, a lot of his recent buyers have been ditching Haaland to make way for him. Yes, the big Viking has had a few injury worries and has been misfiring lately, and Joao Pedro has been much the best FPL forward over the past month or more; but he is NOT a better prospect than Haaland for the remainder of the season.

Just as there's a heavy element of just chasing last week's points with the renewed rush for Joao Pedro, so too there's been a surge of interest in Ismaila Sarr, after an eye-catching display last time out (he was unlucky not to get a hattrick; although one of his brace was a not particularly well-taken penalty...) - just as there was at this time last year. The surge has been a bit more muted than it might have been (barely 50,000 new purchasers so far, though we're still over three days out from the new gameweek deadline), probably because Palace are facing an imminent Blank Gameweek (and most FPL managers are stretched enough figuring out what to do with all of their City and Arsenal players). I like Sarr, he shows a lot of promise; but he's never been a consistent producer in FPL - has a little hot streak here and there, but never gives regular returns over any extended period. He's provided next-to-nothing so far this season. I think he's likely to be rather less involved in the attack than he often was last year, now that they have players like Strand Larsen (in particular), Nketiah and Pino to call upon. And Palace are struggling at the moment, sliding into the mayhem of the relegation zone. Their closing run of fixtures isn't great either: fellow relegation battlers Leeds and West Ham in two of their next three games, and City, Liverpool, and Arsenal still to be faced before the end of the season. Acquiring Sarr now seems a very, very odd choice.

And finally, I risk the wrath of THE MANY, I'm sure, because although he's had - by his usual standards - an absolute dog of a season, Virgil Van Dijk still enjoys an idolatrous following. People are presumably getting excited about the fact he's nabbed 3 goals in the last 7 games; but with defenders, that sort of 'form' is almost invariably just a flash-in-the-pan rather than an emerging trend. And even with those, he's been extraordinarily lucky: many goals/assists have been very dubiously awarded this season, and Virgil has probably been the prime beneficiary of this - his 'winner' against Sunderland, in particular, was clearly an own-goal off Diarra! And while he's still occasionally showing glimpses of his old imperious ways, his performance level has fallen off a cliff this year: he has aged out very quickly and is now looking conspicuously too slow for the Premier League. Even on the new 'defensive points', where you'd expect him to be a fairly reliable returner, his tallies have yo-yo'ed up-and-down wildly from week to week: he has earned the extra points a respectable 11 or 12 times, but in rather more weeks he has come nowhere near reaching the threshold for doing so. And 9 clean sheets is nothing to get very excited over. It is only these highly fortuitous recent goals that have briefly lifted him back into the top five FPL defenders; but only just, and he isn't likely to stay there. With Liverpool's struggling season and his own patchy form, he just hasn't come anywhere near justifying his price-tag this year, even in his better runs of form. And Liverpool, at the moment, are looking as bad as they've been all season. Even in that West Ham game, which they somehow managed to win quite comfortably, they were all over the place defensively, and outplayed for much of the game. Yes, Liverpool's run-in doesn't look too bad; they might experience a sharp upturn in performance again as soon as they get Wirtz back (he'd really been starting to make them tick in the last couple of months); and they have currently calamitous Spurs up next. But none of that is really sufficient reason to waste transfers on acquiring an expensive and severely under-performing defender. Over 70,000 people already this week have let sentiment for the old warhorse (or contempt for unravelling Spurs?!) get the better of their judgement.

Sheep Picks (19)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Well, gosh, yes, it's 10 weeks or so since I last did one of these; and (nothing personal, Arsenal fans!) the last one was.... Ebere Eze!

This week's entry in the series should be very short and sweet. Naturally enough, folks in FPL-land get a bit excited when the league leaders get an early double gameweek, and want to make sure they are loaded up on their players for it. But.... everyone should really have had three Arsenal players already.

And if you were going to change one of your Arsenal selections, or bring in an extra one, especially for this Double Gameweek 26,... these are absolutely the last two I would have chosen! And yet, and yet,.... my oldest friend, and chief antagonist in FPL - who is, frankly, a bit of a klutz at the game - has just bought both of them. And he's not alone: apart from the obviously popular defenders, Gabriel and Timber (who didn't own them already?!), Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyokeres have been among the most popular Arsenal acquisitions. Zubimendi was transferred in over 400,000 times in the last couple of days, more than doubling his ownership; Gyokeres has gained closer to 500,000 new owners!

Martin Zubimendi is a fine player. And I actually feel that his absence - if he should get injured - would be more disastrous to Arsenal's title hopes than any other player's. But that doesn't mean he's worth having for FPL. Yes, he just picked up a fine pair of goals in his last two league outings, but... goals for a central defensive midfielder are a rare treat, not a reliable asset; he's probably already exceeded his quota for the season., and should not be expected to get any more in this double-fixture. Assists? Even less likely: only one - aberrant - example so far. Even more frustratingly for those pinning their hopes on him, he's not even that much of a magnet for the handy new 'defensive points'; in fact, he's one of those who almost always comes up short of the threshold for them, regularly puts in a decent shift but is only accorded 6, 7, 8 'defensive contributions', well short of the required match total of 12 such involvements. He's only actually won 'defensive points' 3 or 4 times so far this season; so, again, it's a bit of a long shot that he'll contribute to your points total that way. He is, at least, almost certain to start both games (though, who knows the mind of Mikel; maybe he'll give Damsgaard a runout in one of them?); but he's also almost certain to be the lowest points-scorer among all Arsenal players who do play in both games. And he is, thus, an absolutely bonkers FPL pick.

Viktor Gyokeres is a marginally less unfathomable choice, because at least he's a primary goalscorer (though, ahem, not as regular as Zubimendi in the last two games!), and he has shown signs in the past month or so of recovering some of his confidence in front of goal. However, he is ridiculously expensive at 8.8 million quid; when there are other forwards like Thiago, Ektike, and recently Joao Pedro, who look in much better form... for less money, it's pretty difficult to justify getting him in even for a short-term sell-and-buy-back, just to try to exploit this week's double-fixture. Moreover, he's not even a certain starter: good as he's looked in the last few games, Jesus and Havertz have arguably looked even better; and Arteta does like to rotate quite a lot in the attacking positions - so, I'd say it's rather uncertain that any of the forward roster will start in both games.

Gabriel is, obviously, well out in front as Arsenal's most promising points-provider. Timber is probably the next best option (any of the defenders would be, if they could be counted on to start: but only Timber has been an ever-present of late - even Saliba has had a few injury issues, and isn't as much of an attacking threat); and then Rice. If you have three Arsenal players (though that's always risky, even with such a pre-eminent club), those should have been the three. If you didn't, the one you brought in should have been one of these three. (Raya is a guaranteed starter, and has a good chance of at least one clean sheet from two games against weaker opponents; but that's true of his defenders too, and they have some chance of picking up 'defensive points' and/or bonus points too,... and maybe even an attacking contribution [though that is not to be relied upon, even from an aerial monster like Gabi!]; Raya is very, very rarely kept busy enough to earn 'saves' points - or bonus points, unless a game ends in a goalless draw! - so his 'points ceiling' is basically capped at 6 per game, he's very, very unlikely to be able to outscore his defenders.)

And if I were going to try something different for this double gameweek, fancying the chance of at least one more free-scoring performance from this notoriously constipated Arsenal side in what should be a pair of relatively undemanding fixtures (though no opponent should be underestimated: Brentford's form has been really impressive of late, and Wolves can create some attacking danger, especially through the very lively youngster Mané, even if they're still often very flakey at the back), I would go for an attacking midfielder - most probably Madueke (who has been the most regular starter lately, and in the best form; even if Saka is 'fit' again, I doubt if he'll be rushed back into starting action; and even if he is, I think Madueke would keep his start, and be moved over to the left flank), though a case might also be made for Trossard, or perhaps even Eze (who hasn't been a prolific provider for Arsenal, but might get two starts, if Odegaard is unavailable), or Martinelli (who has been on a bit of a scoring streak just lately, and might be worth having a punt on, even if he's only used as a super-sub!).

But Gyokeres and Zubimendi - are you kidding me??????

[Well, that was a bit like shooting fish in a barrel, wasn't it? As I'd fancied, key midfield assets like Madueke, Saka, and Rice performed decently, despite the ultimately poor results for the team. Zubimendi at least scraped one set 'defensive points', just barely (and in the Wolves game, rather than the Brentford one!!), to finish with a bog-average 6 points. Gyokeres did at least start both games (which wasn't at all certain; and, arguably, not a smart call on Mikel Arteta's part), but picked up a booking against Brentford, and utterly failed to impose himself against Wolves - being lucky to survive just a few minutes beyond the hour mark before being pulled out of the game: hence, a dismal 3 points.

But I can't claim any great 'Nostradamus' powers on this one. It was absolutely bloody obvious that Arsenal might be starting to feel the nerves at this stage of the season; and that, even if they didn't, Zubimendi and Gyokeres were absolutely the two least promising of their players to have in your squad.]

Sheep Picks (18)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

For Gameweek 13 of the 2025/2026 season, I'm afraid I have to nominate Eberechi Eze as my 'Sheep Pick' of the Week. 

There's an easy way to identify a classic 'Sheep Pick': just select the 'Transfers in (round)' metric on the FPL 'Stats' page and see who's at the top of the list. More often than not, they're a 'Sheep Pick'! At the moment Eze's neck-and-neck with Brentford forward Igor Thiago to be in first place this week; but there are good reasons for favouring Thiago - he's an in-form goalscorer facing a bottom-of-the-table side (really, everyone should have had him in their squads several weeks ago!). There are really no good reasons at all for picking Eze. It's just a classic case of that typical 'Sheep' phenomenon known as chasing last week's points. Yes, Eze played a blinder against Spurs last Sunday, and was FPL's top returner of the week with 20 points. But is there any reason to suppose that he's likely to do that again this week? Or ever again?? No, I'm afraid there is not.

I absolutely love Eze as a player, I've had him in my FPL squad several times over the last few years, and I hope to see him playing for England at the World Cup this summer. Nothing personal: I just don't think he makes any sense as an FPL pick. Here's why....

1)  His style of play. I've always been sceptical about how compatible Eze would prove to be with Mikel Arteta's footballing philosophy, and despite his extremely impressive start with the club, those doubts remain for me. I fear he's too much the maverick, too much the impulsive improviser to fit in well with his boss's generally ultra-cautious approach to the game, an approach that emphasises minimizing 'risk', building up patiently, maximizing 'control' at all costs, sticking to very detailed and disciplined team tactics. rather than going off-script on a whim....

2)  His place within the Arsenal team.  Eze's only been prospering in recent weeks because he's been able to play a freer, more central role and take on the mantle of the team's primary playmaker - during Martin Odegaard's extended injury absence. Odegaard should be fit to return any day now, though. Certainly there is an argument that Eze and Trossard have been playing so well recently that neither of them can be dropped; and if so, there would be no way back into the team for Odegaard at the moment. But Odegaard has been the creative lynchpin of the team for the last four years, he understands Arteta's tactical demands better, he's forged a close rapport with their other attacking players on the right-hand side, Saka and Timber (and White), and he's the club captain; I can't see any way he won't slot straight back into his normal position as soon as he's fully fit again. Eze, I think, is the type of player who really needs to be given space by his club to fully express himself: not just physical space, an optimum area of the pitch for him to operate in, but the psychological/emotional space of knowing that he's trusted with the responsibility of being the team's principal creator (as he always was at Palace, at least in the last two seasons since Zaha left). If Odegaard returns to his playmaker role, Eze will almost inevitably be shunted out on to the left flank, where he's likely to be more isolated and have much less impact on games (especially as Arsenal tend to heavily favour the right side for their attacks, through that nexus of right full-back plus Odegaard plus Saka plus central striker). He'll still have his moments, I'm sure; but he won't be as continuously influential as he has become during the last handful of games.

3)  His minutes-risk. If relegated to a regular starting position on the left-side of the attacking trident (and it's about the only spot on the pitch that isn't absolutely nailed down by one of Arteta's favourites), there are other players who can play there. Martinelli has more pace, is more used to holding the width on the touchline (as Arteta usually requires from players on that flank), and has looked in great scoring form recently; Madueke can also play on that wing, also has more pace, and is perhaps better at taking on and beating a defender than either Eze or Martinelli (and, as an expensive new arrival at the club, he might reasonably demand a decent number of minutes on the pitch; and he's never likely to get more than token bench appearances on the right, as long as Saka's fit); and Trossard is more adaptable, liking to break into the box to operate as an outright forward sometimes, as well as being able to play out on the wing or in the half-space - and he's absolutely on fire with his goalscoring at the moment. There is a serious possibility that, brilliantly though he has been playing, Eze might soon be sitting out a lot of games.

4)  The next fixture. They're away at Stamford Bridge on Sunday: a London derby, against one of the best defences in the league (some distance behind Arsenal's own, of course; but still, not too shabby) and one of their few title-chasing rivals, and a team who seem to be now coming back into a bit of form. It's unlikely to be an easy game. For the bookies, it looks like it's too close to call: Arsenal are only very narrow favourites, and a low-scoring draw actually seems to be the most fancied result. OK, after that, most of Arsenal's fixture-run through December looks fairly inviting. But why be in such a mad rush to bring him in this week?? Wait and see what happens with Odegaard.

5)  Competition within the club quota.  As I noted a few weeks back, Arsenal's defence is so vastly superior to everyone else's so far this season that there is now an almost overwhelming case for taking two of their defenders (but not three of them; and not their goalkeeper!). Meanwhile, Declan Rice looks likely to be at least the most consistent - and perhaps even the overall No. 1 - points producer among the cheaper midfielders, because of the number of assists he's likely to pick up from corners and free-kicks, as well as defensive points and clean-sheet points and the occasional goal. Saka, meanwhile, is pure class, and always dangerous: since his return from injury, he's been cracking off at least a few firm shots on target in every game, and is surely overdue to have one or two of them go in; he's also a likely provider of assists from corners and free-kicks, often hoovers up 'defensive contributions' too, and now he's on penalties for them as well; if he stays fit, he will almost certainly be Arsenal's top FPL points-scorer of the season. But Trossard (who I tipped as an under-appreciated gem just the other week) is actually the Arsenal player currently in the most outstanding form: he really looks like he could score in every game at the moment, and is absolutely overflowing with confidence, after registering attacking returns in 4  of his last 5 starts. Even if you were allowed 5 picks from Arsenal, Eze would barely be in the frame; when you're capped at 3,.... he should be nowhere near consideration.

6)  His optimum points potential.  Prior to last weekend's massive haul against Spurs, he'd only been averaging 6.5 points-per-game across a run of 6 straight starts. That's good, but not earth-shattering. And I think it's probably near - if not slightly above - the limit of what you'll be able to expect from him on a consistent basis, even over a peak run of returns; over a longer spell, he's not likely to get anything like that much... even if he were to retain the central playmaker role (which seems very unlikely from here on); playing off the left flank, his points prospects are likely to be significantly diminished.

7)  A one-off performance against Spurs. Arsenal and Eze were outstanding in the North London derby last week; but Spurs were catastrophically bad in every single aspect of their performance. It is hard to imagine any other opponent defending that poorly against Arsenal for the rest of the season; no-one else is going to be giving a player like Eze so many of the same sort of chances in one game. Arteta's 'masterplan' for this one was in fact stunningly simple: he just concentrated players on the right flank, regularly moving Merino and/or Zubimendi out wide along with Saka and Timber, to try to lure the Spurs dual pivots out of position. And it worked every single time: Betancur and Palhinha would both be drawn out of the centre to try to stifle the dangerous overload on the flank; but they weren't able to stop the Arsenal wide players from threading balls inside to Eze, who'd been left all on his own, just outside the middle of the penalty area. Being caught out by this 'cunning plan' once or twice would be forgivable; but Spurs somehow never adapted to it all game: they didn't realise that at least one of the pivots would always have to try to stay a bit more central, they didn't think it might be a good idea to maybe assign someone to man-mark Eze, it didn't even occur to the centre-backs that they were going to have to be more alert to rush out quickly to try to block shooting efforts from around the edge of the box. Again and again and again, Eze was invited to have a crack from 16 or 18 or 20 yards out; and he's very good from that distance - he was in hog-heaven! But this was a really freakish occurence, a truly stupendous piece of tactical naivety from the visiting side. Eze has played better games without coming close to scoring. Especially with Arsenal, with the mismatch in style and temperament between him and Arteta, I'm afraid he's just not the kind of player who's ever going to post Salah or Palmer goalscoring numbers.

There are ways I could prove to be 'wrong' on all of this. And I kind of hope I am. I'd love to see Eze enjoy a little hot streak - not least because it will bolster his chances of securing a start with England. He is an excellent player; and his confidence is through-the-roof after that hattrick.

Maybe Arteta will let him continue as the main creator, and leave his captain to stew on the bench. Maybe, even if nominally moved back out on to the left, he'll be able to come inside more, mostly play much narrower, maybe even rotate a little with Odegaard between the left-half, right-half, and central spaces - as the formation perhaps becomes less of a 4-3-3 and more of a 4-2-3-1. Maybe, maybe.... they might even be able to forge a new role for Eze, turning him into a kind of 'false 9': he might possibly get more goals like that, and it would allow both Odegaard and Trossard to continue playing in their best positions - but I fear it would be too radical a tactical departure for the conservative Arteta; and there's not much time to experiment with such an option before Gyokeres is expected back, anyway.

I think there's quite a good chance that, so long as he's still starting, Eze could pick up u few more goals over the coming month - while he's still riding the wave of elation from that massive game on Sunday. But I reckon that's all it would ever be: a short streak - that might look like a good return across 5 or 6 games, and would be enough to reassure 'The Sheep' that their selection had paid off; but Trossard or Saka or Rice might do even better, probably won't be much worse even in the short-term; and across any slightly longer run, say 7 or 8 games and upwards, one or all of those three will almost certainly do much better. And if Eze gets dropped or his points otherwise suddenly dry up and you want to ship him out again, he's cost you 2 transfers in a fairly short space of time; that undercuts his value to an FPL team as well (Saka or Rice look like they could be season-long holds).

Many FPL managers seem to find this hard to grasp, but.... even if Eze does return some good points in the next few weeks, that still doesn't necessarily make him a good pick. You have to consider a player's medium- and long-term prospects, not just the next few games; and you have to evaluate those prospects in the context of issues like club quota, budget, possible alternative uses of the transfers, etc.

But I don't think he will produce all that well, unfortunately: certainly not at anything like the rate he just managed on Sunday!