The 2024-25 'Sheep Picks' revisited

During the course of the year, I highlighted a number of unduly popular selections - 'sheep picks' - that I thought were misguided and unpromising, for a variety of reasons. Now that the season is over, I thought I'd quickly review those disrecommendations, to see if I was badly off-the-mark on any of them.

My first nomination, going into Gameweek 2, was Everton defender Michael Keane, who was a popular 'budget-enabler' early in the season - as one of the few 4.0-million-pound players who was actually getting a start. However, you don't want to be having to use transfers to replace such a low-value squad-filler; for that sort of spot, you really need someone you can rely on to be at least a starter all season; and Keane was obviously only ever filling in short-term for the injured Jarrad Branthwaite. Now, Branthwaite's injury kept him out a bit longer than first expected, and then quickly recurred; so, Keane actually played a full match in 9 of the first 10 games. And he did bag 2 excellent - but, for him, extremely untypical! - goals in that spell; so, people who had bet on him got rather lucky! Everton predictably took a battering from Spurs, leaving Keane with a nul-pointer in the first game after I warned against this pick: and they were so ropey at the start of the season that they couldn't beat Villa either,... or even Leicester - giving Keane just a solitary point in two of the next three games, before Branthwaite initially returned. 31 points over the next 9 games - including a 14-point bonanza for his screamer of a late winner against Ipswich - turned out to be a pretty decent return for a cheap defender; but over the 4 or 5 games immediately following, it was much less so. He was not objectively a good pick at that point, even for the price (people like Wout Faes and Taylor Harwood-Bellis were playing better, and were looking much more nailed starters for the season).

The following week, I called out Noni Madueke - a classic case of 'chasing last week's points', as nearly 1 milllion managers rushed in for him after his hattrick and 20-point haul against Wolves. Another goal - for a 10-point week - against Forest in GW7 dragged him up to 22 points over the next 5 games, which would be a barely adequate return, perhaps; but then he blanked in the next 6 games after that, quickly dropping 200,000 in price again. It was always pretty obvious that he was unlikely to become a regular goalscorer.

And in Gameweek 4, I went for the low-hanging fruit of poor Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Over 200,000 managers piled on him after a good game and a double-digit haul against Bournemouth. Now, he did actually score again against Villa in the next game, and perhaps some FPL managers would be satisfied with that. But he followed that up with 9 blanks in a row, and only scored once more all year - just before succumbing to a season-ending injury in January. Everton were in pretty awful shape at that point, and Dominic has never managed to produce sustained goalscoring form - so, it was a clearly daft selection.

For Gameweek 8, I picked on Rayan Ait-Nouri. He'd just notched up a goal and an assist against Brentford, but Wolves's defensive form was so abject at that point that this performance had only earned him 9 points, and barely dragged him above 20 points for the first 7 games of the season. Wolves had City up next; and even though the Champions were just starting to stutter a bit, there was no way Wolves were going to beat them. Ait-Nouri did in fact come up with a goal in the following game against Brighton, and then managed a clean sheet against Southampton two weeks after that - for a so-so return of 14 points from 4 games; but a miserable run after that yielded just 4 net points from the next 6 games.  And even with the sharp upturn in Wolves's results after Vitor Pereira took over in mid-season, Ait-Nouri was still often being used in a more purely deefensive role, and he only produced 1 more goal and 4 assists - and 85 points - in 20 games under the new manager: pretty good, but still not great; and that didn't start getting going until the end of December, nearly three months after this post.. His return of 18 points from the next 10 matches from here was dismal.

In Matchweek 11, I queried the choice of Dominic Solanke. Again, over-excitable FPL managers were responding to an excellent performance against Villa in the previous game, where he picked up 2 goals and an assist,... and to the prospect of facing promoted Ipswich next. Of course, he blanked in that following game, as Spurs were well beaten by the plucky East Anglian side; and he only produced 1 assist in his next three outings. Postecoglou's Spurs were floundering, and Solanke was mostly playing an unselfish facilitator role rather than being a primary goal outlet for them: he only managed 3 more goals and 3 assists, and a fairly modest 42 points, over the 11 games before he picked up an injury in January. I rate Dominic very highly as a player; but in that team, in that moment,... he was clearly not a strong FPL points prospect.

In Matchweek 12, I cast doubt on whether we should get too excited about the prospect of a 'new manager bounce' for Manchester United under Ruben Amorim, and whether his first really good haul of the season could be taken as the beginning of a 'hot streak' for Bruno Fernandes. Just as with Spurs in the previous week, Ipswich proved not to be a pushover, battling to a draw in front of their home fans, as Fernandes blanked. And although he picked up another 2 assists in a good win against still floundering Everton the following week, he would blank 8 more times over the next 12 games - as United failed to find any consistency under their new coach. Maybe some Bruno adopters would have been happy with three 9-pointers from him over the next 5 games (but he did follow that up by getting himself sent off against Wolves in December); but his return from Gameweeks 12 to 25 was a modest 56 points. In recent years, this has tended to be the problem with Bruno: like Son Heumg-Min, he will produce several decent hauls - and probably a few very big ones - every season,... but there will be long runs of blanks in between these, which make him hard to justify as a long-term hold. It would have been great if you could get on him for his run of 46 points from 4 games from Gameweeks 26-29; but for the season as a whole, he was not a good pick this year.

I nominated Bruno again in Gameweek 30, when over 1.25 million had bought him either side of the preceding game against Leicester, when he did indeed produce his season's best haul of 17 points. However, Manchester United's form was in a death-spiral by that point. Bruno had been trying to keep them afloat single-handedly, but he couldn't keep doing that forever. The Leicester match was in fact the end of a 4-game run of big returns; after that, he only managed 22 more points over the last 9 gameweeks.

In Gameweek 13, I turned my scepticism on Matheus Cunha - a great player, and one I have sometimes had in my own squad over the last two seasons. But it seemed crazy that over a million managers were scooping him up after two big hauls back-to-back towards the end of November. Those achievements were only against Southampton and Fulham, so not necessarily strong evidence of better prospects against the majority of forthcoming opponents; and although the immediately upcoming fixture-run looked quite promising, after Christmas they were facing a really brutal succession of opponents - and indeed, despite a strong improvement in performance under new coach Pereira, they only won 2 games in 10 in this sequence, and Cunha only produced a haul 3 times in that run. My main argument against him at the time was, why would you use transfers on a striker who probably only represents a good points-prospect for a short run of games - particularly when he's now become quite expensive, and there are so many cheaper forwards also in good form? Cunha's prospects didn't look strong enough to be worth swapping out whoever you currently had in that position. And in fact, despite facing that series of weak opponents in late November and early December, Wolves lost all 4 of these games, and Cunha only returned in the last of them, against Ipswich. And that was the game in which he got involved in some ugly argey-bargey with an Ipswich steward, and was looking likely to receive a LONG ban (it was amazing, and frankly, unjust, that he did not). Two more good hauls immediately following the Ipswich game - when, by rights, he should not have been playing - fortuitously made this look like a good pick for a while; but again over the longer term, Cunha's returns disappointed: his temperament was a recurring problem, as he caused tension in the dressing-room and with his coach, getting rested or given only short minutes a few times, and picking up another extended ban for fighting Milos Kerkez. He got a fairly healthy 46 points from the next 7 games after I queried the rush to buy him; but only another 67 in the second half of the season. And despite a very decent December for Cunha, there were other forwards who did about as well - and would continue to do so for longer.

Ahead of Gameweek 26, I questioned why over 1 million managers had snapped up Omar Marmoush in just a few days. Of course, it was because he'd just bagged an excellent hattrick against Newcastle. But City's form was still looking flakey, and it looked like Haaland was going to be out for a little while with another injury; and they had Liverpool up next, and a few other potentially tough fixtures approaching too. I was favourably impressed with Marmoush's potential, but I wasn't convinced how regular an impact he would have with this season's struggling City side. And so it proved: he blanked in the next 3 games, and then managed only 4 more goals and a solitary assist over the final 10 games of the season.

In Gameweek 29, I poured my scorn on the nearly 500,000 managers who'd brought in Erling Haaland. Admittedly, that was the big Blank Gameweek of the season, so a lot of them were probably only doing it on their Free Hit, because so many of their usual big-hitters were missing that weekend. But neither his nor City's form had been that great (3 defeats in the previous 6 games, and 3 blanks for Haaland); and they were now facing Brighton, who can be a very problematic opponent. And so it proved: the visitors battled to a 2-2 draw, and really should have won the game. Haaland at least yielded points for converting an early penalty, but didn't do much else in the game. And he went down with an injury the following week, which would rule him out for over a month. I didn't anticipate that, of course; but there had been good reasons for doubting he'd get big points in that particular game. And his record of 70 points in 12 starts over the second half of the season, as City slowly improved again, though extremely respectable - is a long way below peak Haaland.

In Gameweek 30, I called out Palace's Ismaila Sarr for being a daft pick. Now, he's a player I like very much; he's a hard worker for the side, but without ever looking likely become a regular or prolific goalscorer. He'd just bagged 3 goals - and 26 Fantasy points - in the previous 2 games, and he had a pair of Double Gameweeks approaching. But he obviously isn't the kind of player to repeat that kind of scoring feat too often, and the two double-fixtures weren't all that inviting. He provided 3 more assists over the season, and came up with another goal on the final day against Liverpool; but he only returned 7 points and 3 points from his two double-fixtures in GWs 32 and 33, and only 36 points over the last 10 games of the campaign. His teammate Ebere Eze, clearly a much stronger prospect from Palace in this period, produced 17 points from the back-to-back doubles, and 62 points over the last 10 games. This is the most clearcut one of the lot! Why would anyone choose Sarr over Eze??

In Gameweek 35, I warned against Ollie Watkins. Another pretty baffling one. Again, a very good player - but neither he nor Villa were showing any really solid form at that moment (they'd ground out a good sequence of wins over the past couple of months, but without actually playing very well: most of them were narrow and/or rather lucky victories, and mostly against weaker teams). Ollie did in fact manage a goal and an assist in the remaining games, for a respectable but hardly world-shattering 18 points from 4 starts. However, while not a resounding return - surely, far less than his new owners had been hoping for - it was actually pretty good in the context of the other leading forwards: though few might have predicted this, every other forward player faltered to some extent over the last few weeks of the season, and even the best of them - Isak, Wood, Marmoush, Welbeck - only managed around 13, 14, 15 points from the last 4 games, while the likes of Cunha and Mateta finished really poorly. Somewhat surprisingly, Watkins turned out to be not a particularly great pick here, but the least worst.

In Gameweek 36, I wagged my finger at people rushing to buy Josko Gvardiol. Folks were again under-estimating bottom-of-the-table Southampton - who did here rouse themselves to a heroically obstinate defensive effort and hold their illustrious visitors to a goalless draw. (At least Gvardiol picked up yet more clean-sheet points; but I think there had really been a pretty good chance Southampton could have scored in this one - if they'd had the guts to go after the game a bit more.) Their final two opponents after that, Fulham and Bournemouth, weren't at all straightforward, either; although, fortunately for City, both played quite poorly at the close of the season. So, Gvardiol's 2 clean sheets in 3 games here was very much at the upper end of what might have been hoped for from him in these games. However, my main argument at this point was not that he was definitely not worth having, but that it was ridiculously late to be joining the party: many people had owned Gvardiol all season; I'd been wary of him at first, because I doubted he'd be scoring a goal every other week, knew his defensive points weren't likely to be that great with City; and also, he didn't seem likely to be an ever-present, since Pep's defenders almost never are; but he had in fact become one of City's most nailed-on players this year, and he'd grown into a much more persuasive pick as City's defensive performances slowly improved from the turn of the year onwards. In the 7 games prior to this, he'd racked up 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 clean sheets, and 32 Fantasy points - people really should have bought him a month or so before this.

Finally, in Gameweek 37, I raised doubts about going in for Ebere Eze so late in the season. Yes, he'd been looking gee'd up rather than physically and emotionally drained by his team's recent success in the FA Cup Semi-Final, and had managed 3 good hauls back-to-back in the league. But as with Gvardiol above, the argument this time was not so nuch that he wasn't worth having, but that his peak returns were most likely over, and it might not be worth using a transfer on him now. He did in fact get a goal that week in a spirited win over Wolves, despite only coming on for a short spell at the end - in the wake of playing a victorious FA Cup Final at the weekend just a few days earlier. But he was more subdued in the final game, and earned no bonus points for either appearance. 9 points in a pair of games isn't too shabby - but there were almost certainly far better things you could have used your penultimate Free Transfer on.

Sometimes The Sheep wind up happy. Michael Keane got a much longer first-team run than had initially been expected, and came up with two fabulous goals out of nothing during that spell; but Everton's defence was so leaky early in the season that he still didn't produce particularly good points. His owners may claim that he was only ever meant to be a bench-filler (though I saw a lot of people starting him!), but you don't want to have to use transfers to change your bench-fillers; ideally, they'll be set-and-forget for the whole season, or a good long chunk of it. Bruno Fernandes got 3 decent hauls in the next 5 or 6 games after I first warned against him - probably enough to keep his owners happy,... although his season-long returns definitely weren't. Ditto Matheus Cunha, who did manage a few good hauls over the month or so after I voiced my misgivings about picking him. Even Erling Haaland at least came up with a goal in Blank Gameweek 29, which was OK - for people who'd only ever planned to move him in for that one week. Josko Gvardiol, somewhat contrary to expectation, picked up 2 further clean sheets in a tricky run of opponents over the last 3 games of the season; again, not great, but probably good enough to content his recent purchasers. Even Eze scored in a 10-minute cameo off the bench, in the wake of his FA Cup triumph - again, hardly expected; really, rather an undeserved piece of good fortune for FPL managers who'd brought him in only that week. And Ollie Watkins, while not lighting any fires, got a slightly better return over the final few games of the season than any of the other forwards.

Even here, the 'good' outcome was surely far less good than the adopters of these players had been optimistically expecting at that moment in the season. And in most cases, these returns didn't come immediately, in the next game - the one for which their new owners obviously had such high hopes - but just a little bit later. And in each case, I would say, there were a number of interlocking factors at play which combined to produce a highly fortuitous, far-from-expected set of events. Sometimes you get lucky; sometimes, very, very lucky; but that doesn't retrospectively make a rash decision into a wise one.

I'm very happy that so many of these posts of mine this season criticising over-popular picks proved incontestably correct: Madueke, Calvert-Lewin, Ait-Nouri, Solanke, Marmoush, Sarr. But I'm also pleased that some of them proved to be less clearcut: I think those potential 'grey areas' are places where there's scope for more interesting analysis and debate. But ultimately I feel equally vindicated in most of those more challenging instances: even though they performed well above what should have been a good average expectation of them in the coming fixtures,... it still wasn't quite good enough to justify the pick. Moreover, they usually didn't do very well over a longer run of games; and in many cases, they didn't do as well as some cheaper alternate picks.

'Collective action', 'group mentality' is all too often sadly deluded. I wouldn't advise never going for a suddenly popular FPL pick; but I would say - you should always question it very, very carefully; because popularity, on its own, is perhaps more often a bad thing than a good one.

Sheep Picks (14)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Well, I hate to do this, as I really like Eberechi Eze: I think he's a tremendous player, have often had him in my own FPL squad over the past few years, and would like to see him being given a more regular role with England. But.... he is my nominaton for a dangerously overrated 'Sheep Pick' for Gameweek 37 of this season.

He's the second-most transferred-in player for this gameweek (after Ollie Watkins, who I already raised doubts about a couple of weeks ago - although he looks a much stronger option at this stage,... if you can afford the transfer [people who rushed to buy him earlier in the week, to avoid a price rise, before they'd heard possible late injury news, were taking a big, BIG gamble!]), with a net influx of nearly 237,000 new owners. And that's purely because he bagged a brace of goals last week, to become the 'Player of the Week'. Indeed he did: but that was only against absolutely awful Spurs - it wasn't really a terribly convincing performance, either from him or his team. (And it was one of the most dire gameweeks overall that any of us can remember for years....! He was only 'player of the week' because almost all the other most fancied players failed to come up with anything.)  And yes, that does make it 5 goals in the last 6 games for him; he's certainly been in some tasty form lately. But as with Josko Gvardiol last week, one of my key objections to this sudden rush-to-buy is that you really should have had him already, bringing him in ahead of Palace's back-to-back Double Gameweeks in weeks 32 and 33. (I recommended him in preference to Ismaila Sarr ahead of Gameweek 30. Since then, he's scored 53 points to Sarr's 22!)

It is, however, worth noting that his team's form has been quite unconvincing since the beginning of April: they've only managed modest wins against defensively flakey Brighton and Spurs, while being held to a draw by dreadful Southampton. Their best result was probably the spirited 2-2 draw at Arsenal. But 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 8 games have seen them lose almost all hope of possible European qualification through League position. And - as I predicted - their performance in the two Doubles was particularly disappointing; that was because they struggle to perform well twice in the same week (they're not used to it, having never played in any of the European competitions [apart from a brief foray into the old pre-season InterToto Cup], and their squad is quite thin, so they're not able to rest players much); and they were up against four good opponents in those games. The same is the case now: after the huge emotional and physical challenge of the Cup Final against Manchester City on Saturday afternoon (which could go to extra time and penalties), they have to play their last 2 league games within less than 5 days. And those games are against Wolves and Liverpool. 

Admittedly, those two opponents have both stumbled in the last couple of games, but Palace would surely be nowhere near favourites to win either of these fixtures,... even if they were well-rested. Wolves have some of the best attacking form in the League since Vitor Pereira took over: from the beginning of February they went on a run of 8 wins and a draw from 11 games; and they were hard done-by to end a streak of 6 wins on the bounce against City two weeks ago, when they actually looked much the better side. They had a very off day against Brighton last week, but that's no reason to suppose that their glittering form of the past few months has suddenly completely deserted them. And Liverpool, yes, they have - not unexpectedly - lost a little focus and passion since they wrapped up the title with a month to spare; but they're still a team that can take apart anyone, even at 80% of their best. And you have to think that their passion will be rekindled by the desire to celebrate their championship in style on the last day at Anfield. On paper, Palace really don't have a snowball's chance in either of those games.

And they have only the slenderest hypothetical chance of squeaking into the Europa Conference League spot through their League finish, anyway. They not only need to win both of their games next week (won't happen), but they need Brentford and Brighton to each lose both of their remaining games (won't happen), and Bournemouth and Fulham to also drop points (that is pretty likely; but I'd bet that they'll both still finish above Palace).

Palace's season now rests on the Cup Final; they can't realistically finish in the top half of the League, they can't qualify for a European competition any other way - Saturday is the be-all and end-all of their season. And whatever result they get, they are likely to be completely wrung-out, and not in any condition to focus much on those two remaining League games, which will be meaningless for them. Plus, of course, there's the very serious risk that Eze, or other key players, will pick up an injury on Saturday, or at least be too fatigued by that game to be capable of many minutes on Tuesday,... or maybe even next Saturday,... or to play very well, even if they do trot out for the full 90 minutes both times. I really hope Palace can upset City at Wembley; but either way, that match is surely going to ruin them for next week. [Well, HOORAY - Palace did pull off that fairytale 'underdog' win in the Cup (though, on this season's form, they can't really be considered underdogs in this match-up), to the delight of all 'neutrals' around the world. Moreover, they didn't appear to pick up any injuries (though Wharton, who is pretty important to them, might be a doubt; and Guehi, who took a ball in the side of the head, might be excluded on Tuesday night by 'concussion protocols'), nor get any suspensions either (but, oh boy, was Dean Henderson lucky!); it didn't go to extra time; and City didn't even give them that tough a game physically (although it was, by English standards, quite a 'hot day'....). So, my reasonable concerns about whether they might be severely fatigued or demoralised, or suffering a significantly depleted squad this week, may have come to naught. And maybe there's even a possibility that the elation of their Wembley success will raise their game over their last two league matches. However, I still maintain that it was a huge risk to assume/hope that they would come through Saturday so well.  And it is still overwhelmingly likely that they will be tired, and lacking motivation in these remaining matches - particularly on Tuesday evening (when they'll presumably also be very short of tactical preparation, having spent 24 or 48 of the intervening 73-and-a-half hours celebrating...!). It is a very rare - almost unheard-of!! - circumstance to have teams playing in the Cup Final before the end of the League season; but when that does happen, you don't really want to be gambling on players from those teams.]

Ebere Eze is a tremendous player who can come up with a goal contribution at any time, against any opponent. But in the context of a crowded last week of the season, when he and his teammates will have nothing to play for, and facing two very dangerous opponents, it really doesn't seem at all likely that he will do so in Gameweeks 37 and 38. If you'd fancied his prospects over the past month-and-a-half, with the double Double, you should have had him already. But now is the time to sell him, not buy him.

Sheep Picks (13)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

I wasn't expecting to have to nominate anyone in Gameweek 36, but - strangely, amazingly - there are quite a few players gaining a fair old flood of new owners this week; and the most curious of these selections is surely Josko Gvardiol. As of Friday morning, he's already reached 200,000 transfers-in for the week, with more than 24 hours to go before the Gameweek deadline; that puts him neck-and-neck with Bryan Mbeumo, not far behind Yoane Wissa, and miles ahead of Chris Wood and Matheus Cunha (though trailing in the dust of his illustrious teammate, Kevin DeBruyne) - all of whom (including KDB) I find far more justifiable picks.

Now, yes, Pep does seem to have ironed out many of Manchester City's problems, has got them looking reasonably dangerous again (though still far from impregnable, and a pale shadow of what they were last season). And the big Croatian has been playing very well of late: in fact, thanks to the recently faltering form of formerly strong defensive sides like Forest, Bournemouth, and Palace, he's just managed to edge into the Top Three of the FPL defender rankings (his best placing of the season, I think; he's usually only ever been hovering around the Top Five briefly, when he's just scored a goal - and has quite often dropped well out of the Top Ten...). And yes, they are facing Southampton this weekend - which could be an invitation to a spectacular goalfest.

However, City's final two fixtures - Bournemouth and Fulham - aren't at all straightforward: a win in those games can't be guaranteed, and I wouldn't be betting on City keeping a clean sheet in either of them. (And, since Gvardiol is currently playing in the centre of defence, he's not terribly likely to pick up points for anything else...)  Even Southampton shouldn't be taken for granted: they are the only one of the promoted sides to really show some steel - and some threat - over the past month or so, with their big striker, Paul Onuachu, in particular, looking quite dangerous. City will surely win that one, and win it quite comfortably; but the clean sheet might elude them.

Frankly, I think I'd still rather have almost any of the other top fifteen or so FPL defenders of the moment than Gvardiol. In addition to the consistently dependable-in-defence Forest and Liverpool, Wolves are in very impressive form and have an invitingly soft run-in, while Everton, West Ham, and Brentford might also offer some tempting defensive options because of their fixtures.

But the key problem with acquiring Gvardiol now is not whether he's any good (he is; but he's not clearly the best prospect in his position, and he's too damned expensive!), or whether City's form has convincingly turned around (I still have a few doubts on that), or how good their remaining fixture-run is (I'd call it just so-so) - but.... WHY DON'T YOU HAVE HIM ALREADY??  He's just kept 4 clean sheets in the last 6 games! He's just had a Double Gameweek!! Surely everyone who fancied him (and/or City) for the closing phase of the season should have already brought him in at least a few weeks ago???

Maybe people moved him out for his Blank in GW34, and are now moving him back?? It's a terrible waste of transfers to do short-term swapsies like that, particularly for such an expensive player (and one who's gone up in price so much, meaning that you might lose quite a bit of money on him via the dreaded 'transfer tax'). But some people don't know what they're doing....

And maybe some are only just using their Wildcard this week, and thinking they can bring in a bunch of players primarily for this week's fixtures. Though with a Wildcard rebuild, you really have to consider the whole upcoming fixture-run, not just the juicy opponent this week. And in any case, the Wildcard should really have been dropped before now (ideally, two weeks ago...). Some people don't know what they're doing.

But if you haven't got the luxury of a Wildcard rebuild to deploy this late in the season,... and you haven't got a bunch of saved 'Free Transfers' burning a hole in your pocket,.... if, like most people, you've just got your one cost-free transfer of the week to use,.... at this stage of the season, when fatigue and injuries can take such a toll and last-minute dropouts threaten every week, you really need to just roll your transfers for possible emergency fire-fighting (you might find yourself without 2 or 3 starters next week!).

'Elective transfers' are an extravagance you can rarely afford to indulge; and in the closing weeks of the season, they are positively reckless. And burning a transfer on a defender,.... just because they have one 'good' fixture....?  That is absolutely, certifiably NUTS!

Sheep Picks (12)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

So, for Gameweek 35, I'm going to nominate Ollie Watkins. It's not qctually quite as bad as I'd thought: I've been seeing him mentioned all over the Facebook forums in the last few days, and it had seemed like he was going to be one of the week's most transferred-in players. In fact, it looks like he might come up around 60,000 or 70,000 new buyers - which is significant, but not quite a stampede. However, he has edged up to become the 5th most popular forward (effectively 4th, since Haaland still isn't available to start), with nearly 19% ownership - ahead of the much more in-form Wissa and Cunha.... which is just NUTS.

Now, I like Watkins a lot; and he has started to look sharp again in the last few weeks - particularly in the surprise win against Newcastle the other week, when he notched a goal and an assist. Villa's form, too, so patchy in the first half of the season, has shown a strong improvement since February - and they've now racked up 6 wins in their last 8 games, to come storming up the table to get back into the Champions League conversation (I still don't think they're good enough to deserve to qualify for the premier competition; but at least they're giving it a damn good go at the moment). People are also taking encouragement from the recent news of a significant hamstring injury for Marcus Rashford, which seems to diminish the prospect of Watkins getting rationed minutes any longer.

However, the counter-arguments would be: a)  He's been getting short minutes recently (in fact, he's only played a full 90 two or three times since the turn of the year) because of an injury worry; he might not yet be fully over that, might perhaps still be carrying a problem of some sort.  b)  His omission from so many games, including the recent Champions League showdown with PSG, might suggest other problems - perhaps that he's out of favour with Emery because he's looking to leave the club at the end of the season. c) Villa's 'charge' has been aided by hefty helpings of luck: 2 of their run of wins have come against bottom-of-the-table clubs (which scarcely counts!), while they squeaked wins they didn't really deserve against Chelsea, Brentford, and Forest, and Newcastle mysteriously failed to show up for their surprise 4-1 hammering a couple of weeks ago; Villa were well beaten by City last week, and by Palace early in their present successful run. Their form hasn't really looked all that consistent or convincing. d) The run-in over the final 4 Gameweeks, though not too daunting, is far from straightforward either: Villa might struggle to get a result in some of these fixtures, and certainly can't be assured of any large and comfortable wins.

But - as is usually the case with these strangely over-popular selections - the decisive argument against bringing in Watkins is the quality of the alternative selections. Cunha, Strand Larsen, and Wissa are in outstanding form and have a great closing run of fixtures; Marmoush has also looked very dangerous in recent weeks; Isak and Wood are the season's outstanding performers up-front (though, admittedly, there are signs that both their and their teams' form may be faltering...); and Welbeck, Mateta, and perhaps even Ipswich's Liam Delap could be tempting left-field picks in the closing weeks of the season.

You only get 3 forward picks in FPL. And I don't see how Ollie Watkins, even on the most optimistic assessment of team form and minutes prospects, is any better than the 4th or 5th most promising pick in that position at the moment.

Sheep Picks (11)

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I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

And I know I've already mocked the unfounded over-excitement for Bruno this ganeweek but I am prompted to offer a second nomination for Gameweek 30 by the discovery that Palace's Ismaila Sarr has also tipped 500,000 transfers in for the week (and it's still 6 hours before the deadline!) - actually now slightly ahead of Bruno!

I have nothing against the guy: he's a very handy attacking midfielder, and he's having a pretty good season. But this massive rush-to-buy smacks to me of being too easily swayed by recent returns - the naive vice commonly referred to in FPL circles as chasing last week's points. Yes, he's just picked up 3 goals in the last 2 games. And while I might generally fret that one couldn't rely on a player maintaining form over a long EPL break like we've just had, he still did look quite lively in the FA Semi-Final on Sunday. But he does tend to blow very hot and cold on goal involvements; and he's never managed more than 2 or 3 consecutive weeks of contributions before; and he's never established himself a major producer in his previous two seasons at the club. It is possible that he is now on a very hot streak, and that streak might continue for one or two more gameweeks, and he might pick up another goal in one of those; but history, alas, speaks slightly against that. Whereas his precocious teammate Eherechi Eze can - so long as he manages to stay fit - be relied upon to threaten some sort of contribution almost every single week when he's in the kind of form he's been showing lately; he looks a much better bet from Palace for the rest of the season.

However, making an FPL selection isn't only about choosing the most promising player in a particular position; it's also about weighing up the overall context, assessing whether players from this club are really a good prospect, and then deciding which the most valuable players from the club will be. People are rushing to Palace because they have two Double Gameweeks coming up during the run-in. However, they're not likely to be very attractive Double Gameweeks. In fact, Palace's fixtures during the run-in are really daunting: apart from their next game against hopeless Southampton, Wolves is their only other temptingly winnable game - and even that is unlikely to be a pushover. As I so often say, DGWs are not an infallible magic: they're only worth loading up on if the the doubling team has at least one - and preferably two! - soft fixtures.

And if you really do fancy Crystal Palace that strongly for the coming doubles, there is probably more value in Dean Henderson (in such great form recently that you'd fancy him to earn good 'saves' points even in games Palace might lose; and certainly the best prospect among the doubling goalkeepers), Daniel Munoz (still among the very best defensive assets of this season, even with some tougher fixtures to face) and/or perhaps one of his defensive colleagues (Guehi, Richards, and Lacroix have all looked very solid, and even an occasional goal threat; and Tyrick Mitchell, although he hasn't done much lately, is one of the few full-backs this season that is still getting forward into crossing positions fairly often), or Jean-Philippe Mateta, one of the league's most impressive centre-forwards in recent months.

Moreover, Oliver Glasner is looking one of the most tempting 'Assistant Manager' picks over the next few gameweeks, particularly in the GW32 double-fixture. So, if you even potentially have an eye on that option, you ought to restrict yourself to TWO Palace players to make it easy to bring Glasner in.

Not only is Sarr a weaker pick from the Palace midfield than Eze, arguably neither of them are among the best three picks from the club. And if you still have your 'Assistant Manager' chip to play, you ought only to be taking a maximum of 2 Palace players at the moment anyway.

Selecting players is not just about looking at who did well in the last few weeks; you have to consider a whole range of related issues. 

Sheep Picks (10)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

So, for Gameweek 30 I'm going to nominate...... Bruno Fernandes (again!).

Yes, Bruno's a great player; and he's been in fine form lately; but......

1)  Manchester United are still a complete shit-show under Amorim; but for the utter hopelessness of all three promoted clubs this year, they would be in real relegation trouble.

2)  Bruno's actually been more than a little bit fortunate in his last few games. Everyone was expecting him to score against dreadful Ipswich and Leicester; but he failed to in the first of those games, and only nabbed one against Leicester in the very last minute - having had a fairly quiet game. (I kind of feel, too, that there ought to be a subjective element in the awarding of 'assists': you should really only get them for incisive pieces of play that really set up the chance - the inch-perfect cross, the defence-splitting pass; not just being the last person to touch the ball before a teammate carves out a brilliant solo goal - which was the case for both of Bruno's 'assists' in his belatedly huge haul against Leicester!)  The draw away at Everton in February was a travesty, marred by a welter of poor VAR/refereeing decisions; and the home side were so absolutely dominant in the first half, they really should have won the game by 4 or 5 goals. And that free-kick against Arsenal?? Very nicely taken, yes: but the ref had the wall 12.5% too far back: that's a massive error. And the normally flawless David Raya was hugely at fault on that one too - far too far over to the right side of his goal: the effort should have been comfortably saveable.

3)  Lately, Amorim's often been playing him in deeper midfield rather than as one of his 'joint 10s' - where he's likely to have rather less of an attacking impact.

4)  The fixtures now turn sharply against United - with Forest, City, and Newcastle their next three opponents. In fact, they don't have an easily winnable-looking game for the rest of the season.

If you got Bruno in three or four Gameweeks ago - perhaps to replace faltering Cole Palmer - Fate smiled on you. But NOW is the time to be offloading him again, not bringing him in.

And yet Bruno is currently the most acquired player for the Gameweek, with over 250,000 managers transferring him in. That makes no sense at all.

Sheep Picks (9)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Now, I know I'm going to risk getting egg on my face with this one, but..... I'm sorry, I can't resist.

Yep, for Gameweek 29, I'm going to say..... Erling Haaland.

Quite a lot of people seem to be bringing the big Viking back into their squads for this week: he's one of the 4 or 5 most transferred-in players for the week, with just over 200,000 new owners coming in for him already (with a day left before the deadline). Now, that is probably mostly those benighted souls who are unwisely using their Free Hit this week; and not even all of them - only perhaps something between a half and two-thirds of them. Still, that's a pretty substantial phenomenon, which could have a big impact on relative outcomes this week.

I acknowledge it is dangerous for me to pooh-pooh their optimism. And I must state that I am by no means a detractor of Haaland: I admire his talent, and I believe he could be one of the most potent points-producers we've seen in FPL for a decade to come. He is the sort of player who comes up with some mighty BIG GAMES, often out of nowhere; he could produce a huge haul at any time, against anyone. So, yes - he might have a big game this weekend, and make all those 200,000 people who've just rushed in for him (and the getting on for 4 million who have - unaccountably! - been hanging on to him anyway; though many of those are probably extinct accounts, people who became disillusioned and abandoned the game during the first half of the season) feel very smug about themselves.

However, are there really any persuasive reasons to suppose that this weekend is likely to be one of those big games for our Erling? I can't see any. City's form continues to look extremely flakey; last week, against Forest, they managed to shore themselves up somewhat in defence (though they still weren't great), but at the cost of failing to produce any attacking threat at all. City are not looking like a side in contention for the Champions League places; they're looking like a side that are desperately scrapping for a chance of any European football at all next season. And now they're facing Brighton, who, although they've often been a bit defensively flakey this season, do appear to have been on a strongly improving trend again in the last few weeks. They have a brilliant - if somewhat eccentric and over-bold - young coach, and they're almost always very dangerous in attack, especially in swift counter-attacks down the flanks: i.e., exactly the kind of threat City have looked most vulnerable to this year. This is a game that is tough to call, could easily go either way; but it does not look likely to be a straightforward and emphatic win for City. If anything, on recent form, I'd make Brighton narrow favourites for a win.

So, why are so many FPL players suddenly so enthusiastic about Haaland's (non-)prospects this week? Well, in this post on the mechanics of the 'sheep' phenomenon, I warned against the malign impact of online influencers. And one of the worst of these is FPL's own anonymous tipster, 'The Scout', whose output is mostly so lame, superficial, and obvious - and occasionally so bizarrely eccentric and divorced from reality - that I increasingly suspect this content is largely or wholly AI-generated. This week, The Scout has somehow seen fit to not only recommend including Haaland in the starting eleven, but to make him captain. WTF???

Many people are feeling a little bereft and directionless, with so many top picks missing this week, including of course the man who's become most managers' almost invariable default captain this season, mighty Mo Salah. In circumstances like this, they may be even more easily suggestible than usual; and so, when The Scout comes up with his bizarre suggestion of a Haaland captaincy, The Sheep run bleating eagerly and gratefully towards it.... even if there is a sheer cliff of DISAPPOINTMENT adjacent that they might be about to run over the edge of......

Of course, yes, it might work out. But it looks to me like a very big risk - one that really does not deserve to work out.  I wouldn't even rate Haaland among the 3 best forward picks on this weeks' fixtures; in fact, I think I'd probably favour his opposite number on the visiting team, Joao Pedro, over him. But certainly, with the much easier opponents they face, and the much more convincing team and individual form behind them, Wood, Evanilson, Beto, and Strand Larsen look more promising prospects; just returned-from-injury Dominic Solanke, against an up-and-down Fulham, probably does as well. And if you're going to play a third forward (though most people are surely keeping Isak on their bench this week...), Raul, Vardy, Wissa, or perhaps even Rasmus Hojlund might be worth gambling on. But Haaland???  There is just no strong rationale for that pick - in the context of City's form, or the week's other fixtures.

Well, this one probably ended up in the mid-range of expectations: Haaland did play quite well, and did pick up an early goal (albeit only from the penalty spot) - which is rather better than some pessimists might have projected for him from this game; but City again weren't very convincing, didn't manage to dominate the game,... and didn't win - which is exactly what I, and the other 'pessimists', were correctly predicting. Some managers might feel well satisfied with a 7-point haul for their captain, but that is severely unambitious. Haaland's return here has to be viewed in the context of who else did well this weekend, and who else might have been expected to do well; he was, frankly, extremely lucky that the in-form Wood, Beto, and Evanilson - against very vulnerable opposition - somehow didn't manage to get on the scoresheet this weekend; but, among forwards, Hojlund, Muniz, and even Southampton's Onuachu did as well, Wissa did slightly better, and Strand Larsen (and, of course, his own attacking teammate Marmoush) did substantially better - which was not at all unexpected. When 3 forwards, and 14 more players in other positions (especially midfielders: there's rarely a strong argument for giving the captain's armband to a forward rather than a 'midfielder'...) all outscored him this week, you can't make much of a case for even having put him in the starting eleven, let alone making him captain.

Sheep Picks (8)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

And gosh, it's been nearly three months since I last offered one of these. I doubt if sheepiness has been in abeyance over the holidays; it is purely an oversight on my part.

Here goes, then....

Yep, I know I'm asking for trouble with this one. Before he'd even kicked a ball for City, Omar Marmoush already had a passionate fanbase among Egyptian FPL managers - and African ones, and Muslim ones. And when Pep - slightly surprisingly? - trusted him with an immediate starting place in the team, and he was immediately so lively and dangerous... well, it wasn't unnexpected that his ownership would start soaring: now up to nearly 6.5%. Now, I agree, he does look a tremendously talented player. And if he were classified in the game as a 'midfielder', I might be all over him.  But as a forward, his appeal is much more limited - principally because we already have such strongly established leading picks in that position: Isak, Cunha, and Wood; with the likes of Wissa, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Raul, and now perhaps Beto vying strongly as alternatives for the third seat, if one of the current 'big three' loses form. I can see Marmoush might get into that conversation; but I don't think he's quite there yet, on the back of one hattrick. (It is a definiing characteristic of The Sheep that they always immediately buy any player who scores a hattrick!)  With City's form still looking very flakey, and Haaland now possibly added to the injury list (it looked to me very much as though he'd suffered a cartilage tear; a minor one you can sometimes continue to play with - but it's asking for trouble; and I would imagine he'll need a keyhole surgery as soon as possible, which will rule him out for a few weeks at least), Marmoush at the moment looks a very risky pick to me. (Some might feel that an absence from Haaland might improve his opportunities up front. But I think the big Norwegian's role is vital in occupying central defenders to create spaces for players like Marmoush to move into to find scoring opportunities. Marmoush made zero impression against Real this week without his giant striking partner to batter those holes in the back-line for him.) Moreover, City have quite a tough little run of fixtures still ahead of them in the League: even Spurs might be about to initiate a bit of a resurgence, and have been something of a bogey team for them in recent years; Liverpool and Forest are certainly likely to be very difficult games - and Brighton might not be any pushover. 

So, I'm not writing Marmoush off by any means; but I think his potential value in FPL will be very dependent on whether - and how well - City can rally themselves for the final part of the season, and on how well the other leading strikers' form holds up. For me, he's very much a wait-and-see at the moment.

Sheep Picks (7)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Brazilian forward Matheus Cunha is certainly in the form of his life at Wolves just now. And after his two stunning goals (and an assist) in the unexpected demolition of Fulham last week, there's a fair old avalanche of FPL managers falling over themselves to buy him. He's now returned in 6 of his last 8 starts, and has a total of 7 goals and 3 assists for the season. People point to his exceptional talents, and to signs of a general uptick in form for Wolves, and a far more promising run of fixtures through to the end of the year (after their brutally difficult start to the campaign, which left them feeling unfortunate about being rooted to the bottom of the table).

He'd already become a very popular pick over the last month or so, but around 750,000 people have transferred him in this week, catapulting him to a massive 18.5% ownership.

Now, if I'd got Cunha in 3 or 4 weeks ago, I would be very pleased that I had; and I'd be quite happy to hang on to him for a while longer.

However, whether to acquire him now is a rather different question. I have a number of misgivings about that. In fact, I have a very strong hunch that the current enthusiasm for Cunha may evaporate quite soon - like the great Tulip Bubble in the 1630s.

Here are my reasons for doubt:

1)  Cunha, although he has been getting into advanced positions a lot more in recent games, apparently with the encouragement of his coach Gary O'Neill, is not the main goalscorer at the club; he's a support striker, mainly focused on trying to create space and provide service to the more conventional centre-forward, Strand Larsen. I therefore suspect that this rush of goalscoring from him is just a blip, and that in the longer-term we are likely to see more assists than goals from him. That could still add up to some very handy returns; but perhaps not enough to satisfy the greedy expectations of those who are currently buying him for FPL.

2) The sudden rush for him now does smack a bit of the classic FPL vice of 'chasing last week's points', foolishly hoping that because he just got a huge haul in the last gameweek, it's going to happen again this week. In fact, of course, very few players manage to produce a really big return in successive weeks, or even twice within a month. So, in fact, Cunha is statistically quite likely to have one or two relatively disappointing gameweeks now. (Moreover, the mantle of being the 'Week's Most Transferred-In Player' is itself a bit of a hoodoo in FPL; 8 or 9 times out of 10, the bearer of this dubious accolade produces a 'blank'.)

3)  He did suffer quite a lot of injuries last season, so there's a high anxiety now about how long he can hold up physically. This fear might be compounded slightly by the prevalent suspicion that South American players - the more elegant creative types, anyway - tend not to bear up well under the stresses of an English winter (although I feel this was probably more of a '90s trope, and has much less validity today).

4)  Wolves are at the bottom end of the table for a reason; it hasn't been just bad luck with their early fixtures. They have been absolutely dreadful defensively; and this means that they're not enjoying much controlled possession in games; and often are already behind and rather desperately chasing a result even when they do get some good possession. These are not conducive circumstances for regular returns from your strikers. And Wolves haven't really yet shown any evidence of a fundamantal shift in performance: their less-bad form of recent games could evaporate again at any moment.

5)  Given the multiple deficiencies of the team as a whole, I find it hard to get too optimistic about the supposedly favourable fixture run they're in. Frankly, a team this bad doesn't have any 'good' fixtures. There are only 4 or 5 teams poor enough to finish below them; and even these will be tough opponents, because those games will all be crucial relegation 'six-pointers'. And Wolves's fixtures lurch again soon, from perhaps-not-that-challenging for the next few weeks to absolutely abysmal from late December... right on all the way through January and February. I will be very surprised if Wolves aren't nailed to the bottom of the table again, and perhaps fallen a little out of the touch with those above them, by late February. And that, in turn, means that they'll probably be going through the turmoil of a change of manager at some point in the next couple of months.

6)  Cunha's price has now shot up from his opening 6.5 million to 7.0 million - which means he's no longer cheap. And I pointed out at the start of the season that the mid-price forwards really aren't very attractive this year, because there are so many excellent options who cost only between 5.5 and 6.5 million.

If you already have Jackson (or Isak or Watkins.... or, of course, Haaland) as a more premium selection to lead your attack, and any two (or any three) from the so-far excellent Wood, Welbeck, Joao Pedro, Delap, Wissa... why would you spend a transfer on replacing one of these with Cunha, who looks like he'll have, at best, another 5 or 6 games of promising scoring opportunities before another LONG run of misery for Wolves? Jackson, Isak, Watkins, Joao Pedro, and Wood certainly all look better picks for the long-term - because, even if they're not better players, they play in much, much better teams where they have super-talented creative teammates (Palmer and Neto; Gordon and Guimaraes; Bailey and Rogers; Mitoma and Rutter; Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi) who are constantly helping to generate chances for them. Cunha is pretty much having to do everything on his own.

Sheep Picks (6)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Bruno Fernandes is a fantastic player, certainly. And he just bagged a goal and two assists against Leicester before the international break (and was unlucky that it wasn't 2 goals, 1 assist). But... that doubled his tally of attacking returns for the season! And even that monster 17-point haul only got him up to a fairly modest 50 point total (Salah, remember, is already past 100!).

He, and United, have had a really poor season so far. He's massively under-performing his expected goal involvements, and has seen his ownership drop steadily every week - until he got that goal against Chelsea at the start of the month. Now, suddenly, 300,000 managers have rushed in for him again.

As I warned here, sentiment plays a large part in a 'sheep pick' like this: Bruno is a very well-liked player (even when he isn't playing that well) and Manchester United continues to be a massively popular club worldwide (despite having become a comical calamity for the past decade-and-a-bit); so, any slight pretext to take some encouragement about their prospects is latched on to rather over-eagerly.

And when people wax lyrical about what a great FPL player Bruno is, they're allowing themselve to don the distorting, rosy-tinted goggles of nostalgia for a distant heyday. Yes, he was absolutely sensational in his first season-and-a-half at Old Trafford. But then he really lost his way towards the end of 2021: his productivity has fallen off a cliff over the following three seasons, dropping to literally half of what it was in his debut full season (OK, in points terms, down by about 40%). In some ways, it's even worse than that, because while his returns from penalties have held up pretty well, and he still gets the occasional pinger of a free-kick, his goals from open play have dwindled to almost nothing. (And he started to pick up a lot more yellow cards too...)

Bruno, has, unfortunately become one of FPL's  most notorious under-performers. He's in a similar zone to Son, whose occasional huge hauls make him sometimes a tempting pick, but whose lack of consistency can be very damaging: with Bruno, you have to be resigned to sometimes enduring long runs of poor returns. (In fact, he's rather less appealing than Son, because he generally manages fewer really big hauls in a season.... and almost never bags one in successive gameweeks.)

I discern two further reasons for this sudden flood of enthusiasm for the United captain:

1) The myth of the 'new manager bounce' - the optimistic delusion that a change of manager always produces an immediate improvement in form. NO, it does not; not always. 

And, in terms of a profound structural change to a more positive attitude and a more successful tactical approach, that's going to take weeks - at least - to bed in. People may point to how quickly Arne Slot has managed to get Liverpool back to the top of the table; but he did benefit considerably from having a very easy run of fixtures at the start of the season. And he'd had the whole of pre-season to work with his players. And he was starting from a good position, with Klopp having built a culture of success at the club - which he could seek to adapt and improve on further, but didn't need to rebuild from scratch. Manchester United have been building a culture of failure for the last 10 years, and it's going to be a much, much harder job for Ruben Amorim to start putting that right. (Frankly, they just don't look like they have the players to finish any better than 8th or 9th, even with a big uptick in performance. They don't even really merit comparison with the currently disappointing Villa or Spurs, or the impressively over-performing Brighton and Forest; they're more on the level of Bournemouth and Fulham.)

An immediate lift in performance, when it does happen, is usually very short-lived - and is probably more properly attributed to the sense of relief among the players at having escaped from an unpopular/unsuccessful manager than to anything the new man has yet accomplished. That being the case, Ruud van Nistelrooy has probably already reaped all or most of the likely benefit of any post-Ten Hag 'bounce'.

While I am quietly optimistic about what Amorim might achieve at Old Trafford (he is, by some margin, the best appointment they've made since Fergie retired), the transitional period might be protracted and painful. He doesn't have a great squad of players to work with, and they're not all a great fit for the tactical set-up he's used at Sporting. 

While new managers sometimes bring a short-lived boost to a team on first joining, they also bring a lot of uncertainty. So, the change of manager this week should really make people more cautious about buying Bruno, rather than more enthusiastic.

2)  An exaggerated optimism about how 'easy' a win they'll get against Ipswich (away!). Remember how that went for Spurs last week? Ipswich are a decent side, dogged in defence, and dangerous on the counter. It could be a very tricky baptism for Amorim.

Moreover, as with a number of these 'sheep picks' I've analysed already, people seem to be fatally ignoring questions of wider context in rushing for Bruno now.

First, United have a pretty daunting fixture run up until the winter break: Arsenal, City, and Liverpool in quick succession, all away; and Forest, Bournemouth, and Newcastle at home probably won't be any picnic for them.

Second, you might want to keep a squad slot and a chunk of budget for the returning Martin Odegaard or Kevin DeBruyne. They are much more consistent playmakers and part of title-challenging sides, and should clearly take priority over Bruno if they can recover even 60% or 70% of their best form.

Sheep Picks (5)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Dominic Solanke had a very good season with Bournemouth last year. And his move to such an all-out attacking side as Spurs seemed to bode well for his chances of achieving an even higher goal tally this season. He's been a little slow to settle in at his new club, but now he's suddenly nabbed 2 goals (and an assist) against Villa, The Sheep are stampeding after him. Their fervour is no doubt heightened by the fact Spurs have leading relegation candidates Ipswich up next. There has been much chatter on the forums about him now being an obvious captaincy pick for that game (possibly even a Triple Captain punt?!). 

I rate Solanke highly as a striker, but you have to assess his FPL potential in context. His prime virtues are industry and stamina: he's great in his hold-up play, and in vigorously leading the high press (which is why Postecoglou bought him). However, that does mean he's often dropping deep to pick up early balls through the middle, or pulling out wide to create space in the middle for teammates. There are a number of other attacking players at Spurs - notably Son and Johnson, but also Kulusevski and a few others on occasion - with whom he'll be sharing the goals. And being such an unselfish 'team player' like this, he's probably not going to enjoy a particularly prolific season. It should also be noted that Emery's Villa have always been a bit shakey in defence; and they were really poor all-around in that last game, just didn't turn up for it. (But Spurs were even worse than them in the first half...)

Solanke's style of play and Spurs's erratic form (and the apprent fall from favour of James Maddison, who would probably have been Solanke's most productive provider) make him a very unpromising pick, regardless of how sharp his personal form may currently look.

And it is foolish to get over-excited about the prospect of facing Ipswich. They are a much better side than most people give them credit for - much the best of the promoted sides, for my money. They've had some very tough luck so far; but they've generally produced good showings against the top clubs (getting dogged draws against Brighton and Villa, and putting up a very spirited resistance in the opening game against Liverpool). They are well capable of causing an upset this weekend, if Spurs get complacent.

So, Solanke doesn't look a good pick within the context of Spurs's form and the way he plays in that team. But he also doesn't look a good pick from the point of view of the field of available forwards. If you want to go for an upper-mid-price forward (to support Haaland, or to take his place as main goalscorer in your squad), then Isak and Jackson are clearly miles better. But there are so many high-performing strikers this year in the 5.5-6.5-million category that it's really not necessary to have a high-priced forward at all.

Buying a player just because he got a brace last week is NUTS. Buying a player just because he's facing a promoted side next is NUTS. When that player is Dominic Solanke and his team is Spurs, such a decision is utterly BATSHIT INSANE!