Sheep Picks (11)

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I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

And I know I've already mocked the unfounded over-excitement for Bruno this ganeweek but I am prompted to offer a second nomination for Gameweek 30 by the discovery that Palace's Ismaila Sarr has also tipped 500,000 transfers in for the week (and it's still 6 hours before the deadline!) - actually now slightly ahead of Bruno!

I have nothing against the guy: he's a very handy attacking midfielder, and he's having a pretty good season. But this massive rush-to-buy smacks to me of being too easily swayed by recent returns - the naive vice commonly referred to in FPL circles as chasing last week's points. Yes, he's just picked up 3 goals in the last 2 games. And while I might generally fret that one couldn't rely on a player maintaining form over a long EPL break like we've just had, he still did look quite lively in the FA Semi-Final on Sunday. But he does tend to blow very hot and cold on goal involvements; and he's never managed more than 2 or 3 consecutive weeks of contributions before; and he's never established himself a major producer in his previous two seasons at the club. It is possible that he is now on a very hot streak, and that streak might continue for one or two more gameweeks, and he might pick up another goal in one of those; but history, alas, speaks slightly against that. Whereas his precocious teammate Eherechi Eze can - so long as he manages to stay fit - be relied upon to threaten some sort of contribution almost every single week when he's in the kind of form he's been showing lately; he looks a much better bet from Palace for the rest of the season.

However, making an FPL selection isn't only about choosing the most promising player in a particular position; it's also about weighing up the overall context, assessing whether players from this club are really a good prospect, and then deciding which the most valuable players from the club will be. People are rushing to Palace because they have two Double Gameweeks coming up during the run-in. However, they're not likely to be very attractive Double Gameweeks. In fact, Palace's fixtures during the run-in are really daunting: apart from their next game against hopeless Southampton, Wolves is their only other temptingly winnable game - and even that is unlikely to be a pushover. As I so often say, DGWs are not an infallible magic: they're only worth loading up on if the the doubling team has at least one - and preferably two! - soft fixtures.

And if you really do fancy Crystal Palace that strongly for the coming doubles, there is probably more value in Dean Henderson (in such great form recently that you'd fancy him to earn good 'saves' points even in games Palace might lose; and certainly the best prospect among the doubling goalkeepers), Daniel Munoz (still among the very best defensive assets of this season, even with some tougher fixtures to face) and/or perhaps one of his defensive colleagues (Guehi, Richards, and Lacroix have all looked very solid, and even an occasional goal threat; and Tyrick Mitchell, although he hasn't done much lately, is one of the few full-backs this season that is still getting forward into crossing positions fairly often), or Jean-Philippe Mateta, one of the league's most impressive centre-forwards in recent months.

Moreover, Oliver Glasner is looking one of the most tempting 'Assistant Manager' picks over the next few gameweeks, particularly in the GW32 double-fixture. So, if you even potentially have an eye on that option, you ought to restrict yourself to TWO Palace players to make it easy to bring Glasner in.

Not only is Sarr a weaker pick from the Palace midfield than Eze, arguably neither of them are among the best three picks from the club. And if you still have your 'Assistant Manager' chip to play, you ought only to be taking a maximum of 2 Palace players at the moment anyway.

Selecting players is not just about looking at who did well in the last few weeks; you have to consider a whole range of related issues.