Viking plunder!!

 

Well, damn - the Lanky Viking has gone and done it again. Erling Haaland has notched his fourth brace - and his fourth double-digit FPL points haul - of the season that is still only two months old,... even against one of the league's better defences,.... even when his team are really still not playing all that well.

I don't like to say that any player is absolutely a must-have. There are almost always alternative stategies you can pursue by redistributing your budget spend around other players, and the highest points-producers are not usually 'essential' merely because of that.

But right now, in this sort of form, yes, Haaland is a must-have.

And it's not just because of his impressive numbers, his impressive consistency. It's also because of the complete lack of any competition, among the forwards or in any other position.

Even with the additional points now available for cumulative 'defensive contributions', it has been an astonishingly low-scoring FPL season so far. 

Ordinarily, we'd hope to see almost all of our starters breaking 50 points by this stage, and at least 2 or 3 of our biggest performers having racked up 60 or 70 or more. Last year, Salah, Palmer, Saka, and Mbeumo as well as Haaland posted enormous numbers in the opening months of the season. This year, Haaland is the only forward to have registered more than 50 points (his current total of 83 points is in fact more than twice as good as his closest rivals); Semenyo is the only midfielder to have done so (his 70 point total is well behind Haaland, but again almost twice as good as all but a dozen or so of his midfield rivals, and 24 points clear of the second-best), and the only other players to have just squeaked over that threshold are a trio of defenders (who've happened to pick up untypical goals early on).

There was a busier and more turbulent transfer window than usual at the start of this season, and many of the new players have disrupted the tactics of their new clubs and/or not yet found their feet in the new setting. We've also seen rather a lot of early-season injury problems, with the absences of Palmer and Saka - expected to be two of the top FPL performers - particularly unfortunate. The early international breaks have perhaps been a bit more disruptive than usual too. And, what with one thing and another, nobody's form has settled down yet, no team has been consistently or convincingly good so far - and we've seen a lot of unexpected results.

And almost none of the most fancied FPL assets have produced very much at all so far. In fact, NO-ONE  - apart from Haaland and Semenyo - has posted really good FPL numbers yet.

While this continues to be the case, and particularly while the other expensive players - Salah, Palmer, Isak, Saka, Gyokeres - are out of action or not producing, there is absolutely no pressure on the FPL budget: there is no problem about affording Haaland, even at his enormous 14-million-plus valuation. I said at the start of the season that it was difficult to envisage either Haaland or Salah 'justifying' their very high price-tags this year; but I noted there that because of a lack of budget pressure early in the season - with fewer high-priced players than usual, and most of them not fit - it was possible to afford one of them (but not both); and Haaland has obviously been the one to go for.

While Haaland is thus eminently 'affordable', is producing 2 or 3 times as many points as any of his rivals, and no-one else in the game is producing big points at all at the moment - YES, he is a must-have.

But this is a freak circumstance. I can't recall seeing anything quite like it before. And I don't think this situation will last very long. Haaland's points production will surely slow down at some stage. And, even if it doesn't, when the likes of Palmer, Saka, and Isak finally hit form (yes, sorry - I have rather given up on Mo Salah's prospects for this season), there may still be questions to be answered about whether Haaland continues to be a 'must-have'.

Enjoy this remarkable run while you can, Haaland idolaters - he's unlikely to remain an indispensable pick for the whole season.

That SAME OLD QUESTION again....

"Are Haaland and Salah worth it this year?"

Short answer: NO.  (But....)

'Super-premium' players are almost never 'worth it': the opportunity cost of going without so many other better players in almost every position in your squad will massively outweigh any points-advantage they might offer (4 times out of 5, anyway). 

There are certain guideline criteria I suggest in that earlier post on this issue which might justify their inclusion. But I don't think these criteria (the crucial last two of them, at any rate) are clearly going to be met with either of the BIG TWO this season.

Will they rack up an absolutely massive season total??  Probably not - not anywhere near the level of their previous best years, anyway. Liverpool and City are both in a 'rebuilding' phase, which makes their overall team performance much more suspect (City, in fact, were really poor for most of last season - and haven't yet shown any sign of turning that around). Their star men are having to adapt to a lot of new personnel around them, with probably a very radically different playing style arising from that as well; and, more particularly, they will probably face more competition in sharing the club's pool of potential goals than in many previous years, with new players like Ekitike and Wirtz and Frimpong (and maybe Isak...?) very likely to cut into Salah's total, and Marmoush and Cherki probably claiming at least a few chances that might previously have fallen to Haaland. I think both of these superstars will still have very decent seasons - probably breaking 200 points, and maybe even getting up towards 250. But is that enough to justify a price tag of 14.0 or 14.5 million? Probably not!  [And that, I think, is at the optimistic rather than the pessimistic end of the range for projections of their performance this season. Salah, of course, is likely to lose a month or so mid-season due to his participation in the African Cup of Nations, and we should adjust our expectations of his season-total accordingly (although we should always be concerned rather with current form, rather than year-long achievement). And both Liverpool and City are giving signs that they're likely to struggle a little this season, at least against better opposition - and returns from all of their players will probably be slightly restricted by this. There is a good chance that Haaland and Salah - even without a major upset like a significant injury or a prolonged dip in output - will only return something like 170-190 points this season.]

Will they be the top-returner in their position category, by a big margin??  Again, probably not. They might again be the top points-returners, but, as I pointed out a few days ago, that, on its own, doesn't matter; it's the runs of returns over short stretches of the season, and the overall returns from the full starting eleven rather than the best individuals that decide your outcomes in FPL. Palmer, Saka, and Gakpo could run Salah pretty close, maybe even do a little better; and Cunha, Mbeumo, Ndiaye, Kudus, Wirtz, Ndoye, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Grealish, Ismaila Sarr, Enzo Fernandez and a few others also look like they could have very big seasons. Haaland has been given stiff competition by Isak and Watkins in the last couple of seasons, and they might prove even better prospects this year (especially if they move to stronger teams?); Joao Pedro and Richarlison have started the season very strongly, with suddenly rejuvenated teams who now look likely to be able to challenge at the top of the table; Wissa and Wood will be hoping to build on their outstanding form of last season; and the new arrivals in the league, Ekitike and Sesko and Gyokeres, look to have a lot of potential too. I'm not saying any of these will beat Haaland; but I don't think he'll open up much of a gap over the best of them.

Despite - probably - failing these key 'rule-of-thumb' tests, Haaland and Salah might still be justifiable picks as long as they're getting somewhere close (they might; though I'm not super-confident in them this time...),... IF the overall budget dynamics this year make them still affordable.

The key factors that determine this 'affordability' are how many other premium players there are (that you might covet as well as, or instead of the BIG TWO), and how much really good value there is to be found at the lower-end of the price spectrum.

On the first point, the situation looks rather promising: there are almost no other premium-priced players this season - the smallest number there has been for many years, I think. With the departures of Son and Luis Diaz in pre-season, we're left with only Palmer and Saka priced above 10 million in midfield, only Bruno Fernandes at 9.0 (who really should not be in contention at all this year, at any price), only Marmoush and Wirtz at 8.5, and only Cunha, Mbeumo, Foden, and Odegaard at 8.0. Among the forwards, only Isak is priced above 10 million (and not by much: I'd expected he'd start this season at least at 11.0 or 11.5!!), and only Watkins and Gyokeres are at 9.0.

But the cheap squad-filler end of the equation isn't nearly so favourable: among the forwards, only Strand Larsen and Thiago look like reasonably viable picks at the bottom end of the price spectrum (if Strand Larsen's rumoured move to Newcastle comes off this week, he could suddenly become one of the most popular picks in FPL!), and only perhaps Beto, Muniz, and Osula possible ultra-cheap bench-fillers (though they'd be low-value, very risky picks, as they don't currently look like being regular starters). Amongst the cheaper midfielders, only Reijnders, Ndoye, and Tavernier have so far stood out - and those might have been flash-in-the-pan performances. So far, we haven't seen many really compelling possibilities even at 6.5 (Rice and Enzo, Ndiaye and Grealish?), let alone much cheaper. Finding a player like Palmer two years ago, someone who might become the top points-producer of the season from a starting price of only 5 or 6 million, is a real 'Black Swan' event.....

Moreover, quite a few of the better budget midfielders, and most of the strongest defenders seem to have been priced 0.5 million higher this year, presumably to reflect their greater overall points-potential because of the newly-introduced 'defensive points'. This has a surprisingly big impact on the overall budget dynamics, and really puts a squeeze on our ability to afford the most expensive players (effectively, it means an extra 1.5-2.5 million of our budget is being spent 'invisibly').

If Haaland or Salah hit a run of form where they seem to be averaging 7 or 8 points a game for a while, they will be worth considering. But actually, for players of their price, even that isn't particularly outstanding - maybe still not quite enough to justify their selection, most of the time. Last year, Salah managed to average 9 points-per-game over the entire season; and both of them have often enjoyed spells of averaging 10 points or more per game. This year, I just don't think they'll do that again. While lots of other players will also probably hit that desirable threshold of bringing in 7 or 8 ppg, at least for a short spell.

But, of course, the dynamics of squad selection are always very fluid, dependent on multiple interacting factors. Salah and Haaland, despite not playing conspicuously well, have both produced pretty good points across the opening two games. While most of their more expensive rivals are currently out of contention: Isak is unavailable for selection while transfer discussions drag on, Watkins may be distracted by thoughts of a move and has looked out-of-sorts, Palmer and Saka and Odegaard just got injured, Eze just moved clubs and might not get an immediate start, Cunha and Mbeumo and Wirtz haven't found their form at their new clubs yet....

As it happens, you probably can afford Salah or Haaland at the moment. But I don't think you should splash the cash for both of them!  And neither of them should be regarded as a long-term hold this season.

For many FPL managers, alas, this question is treated as above rational discussion. These two players have developed a cult-like following of fanatics - who insist that they must always be a must-have pick, regardless of any considerations of form or overall budget. This, of course, is a very damaging delusion.

Filling the bargain slots

 

At the start of the season, budget is usually very tight. And in order to make it stretch so that you can accommodate some of those more expensive - premium or super-premium - players that you covet, you're inevitably going to have to go for a few super-cheap choices to balance up your spending, so-called budget-enablers.

In general, I recommend going for TWO 4.5-million-pound goalkeepers, rather than anyone more expensive. Though, if you can find find any good starters at only 4.0 million  (rare, but it can happen), it's probably worth taking at least one of them.

Since even the best defenders don't offer very high overall points, you rarely want to be starting more than THREE of them. Hence, you can save money in the initial squad by going for a very cheap 5th defender,... and perhaps even a very cheap 4th as well (though you should always make sure that both are at least guaranteed starters). Your 4th defender will be needed as emergency back-up (if one of your starting three is an unexpected omission) and for occasional rotation (if someone is out with a suspension or a short-term injury, or is just facing a really daunting fixture). But, with luck, you will never need to call on your 5th defender (you should be prepared for the worst; but it may not happen...)

A good 5th midfielder almost always produces more than all but a few of the very best (and hence unaffordably expensive!) 'forwards', so you can also afford to go light on your 3rd forward spot; but never on your 5th midfield spot!

There are always good value options to be found amongst both 'forwards' and 'midfielders', and you can certainly save some money in the last two slots in both positions - but not at the lowest possible price-point: those players will almost certainly be very weak options, if not reserve players who will rarely or never get a start. Players like that are just dead-weight - who will probably leach value out of your squad. Cheap players should still be good players.

The super-premiums aren't usually worth it

 

I just pointed out that, in the defender category, the value of players priced at 6.0 or 6.5 million, or even at 5.5 million, is often very dubious - when there are usually several options at 5.0 or 4.5 who may do very nearly as well, or perhaps even sometimes a little bit better.

The same is true - even more so - for goalkeepers.

In the 'midfield' and 'forward' position categories, though, the most expensive players have usually been priced that way for a good reason, and do usually offer a much higher points-prospect than any of the cheaper alternatives: there is a tempting potential differential points-gap over the competition.

And yet.... when you get up towards the extreme end of the pricing scale, it's no longer just about direct comparison with a single best alternative; it becomes about the broader opportunity cost of having to go short throughout much of the rest of the squad in order to afford such an expensive player.

These super-premium players are just about never 'worth it' in pure value-for-money terms. Even Mo Salah, in his record-smashing season last year, was well outside the Top 20 on 'points-per-pound'; Haaland's ranking on that metric, in his two huge seasons preceding, was absolutely abysmal. But as I pointed out this time last year (in this comprehensive post on how to choose an initial squad), some players are so good that they can become 'above budget'.

However, for a player to merit this kind of special consideration, he needs to fulfill the following criteria: 

1)  Be an ever-present. Must be 100% 'nailed', not at any risk of rotation. Must also have supreme fitness levels and near-superhuman immunity to injury, and exceptional resilience to be able to recover from slight knocks very quickly. If you're paying 10 million or more - and especially if you're paying 12 million or more! -  for a player, you don't ever want to have any anxieties about whether or not they might start the next game; you want to be really confident that they will play almost every single game of the season.

2)  Must offer the prospect of at least a few really huge gameweek returns, and several double-digit returns over the season.

3) Must be incredibly consistent: rarely going more than a couple of gameweeks without some sort of additional points return, and never producing a run of more than, say, 4 or 5 'blanks' in a row.

4)  Must offer a strong prospect of a season total at least up around 250 points, with a reasonable chance of approaching or exceeding 300 points.

5)  And, most importantly, they should be likely to outscore their best rival high-priced players (at similar or lower price-point) by at least 30-50 points, and the best of the more modestly priced alternatives by at least 80-100 points.

[Now, they might not play the whole season. And you might well not want to keep them for the whole season, even if they do. But they should at least track for those kinds  of numbers - hence demonstrating a clear, consistent, and massive advantage over just about any other player, while they are starting regularly.]

Salah just about met those criteria last season. But only just. And his main rivals, Haaland, Palmer, and Saka, in contrast, all had very 'disappointing' seasons. And he only cost 12.5 million last season! This year, he's up to 14.5 million...  Last year was a freak; he can't possibly get up to that kind of enormous total again (especially as he's likely to be missing a month or so mid-season for the African Cup of Nations; and remember, in the last one of those, he picked up an injury,... took quite a while to fully shake it off,... suffered a bit of a crash in form as a result,.... and eventually started getting dropped occasionally, which led to very public friction with Jurgen Klopp... Even Super-Mo has his off spells!). And there might be several other players challenging his position at the top of the points chart this season.

I think Salah last year might have been the only player in FPL history - certainly one of only a very, very few - to categorically justify a price tag of over 12 million pounds. In other seasons, great as he's been, he's often not been massively ahead of his closest rivals; and he's often had little - or not-so-little - spells of injury or dips in form where it became reasonable to stop thinking of him as a must-have, a season-long hold.

I think - I hope - Salah will have another outstanding season this year. Haaland too. I expect them to be almost certainly the top points-scorers in the 'midfield' and 'forward' categories again.

But just having the top points-scorers is not enough. (FPL managers with a very naive view of the game, and a very limited grasp of mathematics, never seem to get beyond this....)  If their differential advantage over the next best picks in their positions is not that much, and if the differential advantage of being able to upgrade several other spots in your squad if you do without them could be absolutely HUGE,.... then they're just NOT WORTH IT.

Highly - very, very, very highly - as I rate both of them, I feel that, at the astronomical pricings of 14.5 and 14.0 million, Salah and Haaland are priced out of contention in FPL this year.

And indeed, all such super-premium priced players are usually worth avoiding. However massive the points hauls they can offer you, they're unlikely to be worth the cost of beggaring the rest of your squad.

[But.... there are no hard-and-fast rules in this game. Given how both Haaland and Salah have tended to 'start hot' in recent seasons, and rack up some enormous points in the opening few games, it is probably worth having a punt on one of them from the start of the season. If they enjoy such an early points bonanza again, and there's a wave of new owners rushing to buy them as a result, you might be able to take a quick transfer-trading profit by dumping them out after a month or so. It is always a lot easier to offload a very expensive player than it is to bring one in (which usually requires multiple additional transfers to juggle your budget).

At this price level, though, I'd say you definitely can't afford both of them. And it is an entirely legitimate choice - probably the sensible, optimal choice - to go without either,... for the majority of the season, anyway.]

Defensive premiums aren't usually worth it

There is a certain special glamour, a mystical 'aura' of invincibility attaching to a few giants of the game in the defender category: Van Dijk, Gabriel and Saliba, and, last season, Milenkovic and Murillo. Plus, of course, in most seasons, there have usually been at least a few progressive full-backs who seemed to offer the prospect of significant attacking returns: Trippier, White, Alexander-Arnold, Munoz, Gvardiol, Porro, Ait-Nouri.

Very nice to have for your club in real-world football; but this can be of tenuous benefit, if any, for FPL.

Attacking returns from defenders have been on the decline over the last several years, and particularly so in the last two or three (arguably Pep's influence, again), as it's become more common for progressive full-backs to tuck into central midfield, rather than pushing all the way down the flanks to overlap the wide attackers and try to supply balls directly into the box. Even the best of them haven't really lit any big fires in the past couple of seasons. If a player of this type has a really good season, they're still likely to be out at the front of the defender rankings - but probably not by the kind of big margins we've sometimes seen in the past; they might only be posting 10-15 points more than the best centre-backs.

And the best centre-backs, the Van Dijks and Gabriels.... will sometimes get outstripped not only by a couple of outstanding full-backs but by a few fellow centre-backs who are less well-known, less fancied (like Milenkovic last year).  Even when they do stay head-and-shoulders above the field,.... well, that head-and-shoulders gap over the best of the rest might not actually be that large. And the differential advantage might not be worth it, when some positional rivals who cost 1.0 or 1.5 million less are posting returns very nearly as good. That extra money spent in midfield will probably buy you more additional points.

It's also worth remembering that most defensive points are earned collectively; so, the weakest and/or cheapest member of a back-line will get almost exactly the same points as its strongest link. If Ibrahima Konate is cheaper than Virgil Van Dijk, you're probably better off going with him; if Micky van de Ven is cheaper than Pedro Porro, you're probably better off going with him; if Jake O'Brien is cheaper than James Tarkowski, you're probably better off going with him.

A few teams do have such a massively greater prospect of clean sheets than the rest of the league that it may be worth paying 6.0 million for one of their defenders: Arsenal and Liverpool this year are very tempting again, of course, and probably also Chelsea and Nottingham Forest,... maybe Newcastle. I'd usually consider getting 1 or 2 defenders around the 6.0 million mark - but not more than that. And if you can find decent alternatives at 5.5 or 5.0, go for them instead.

[Things are complicated this year by a slight upward shift in overall defender prices. I haven't had time to attempt a full breakdown of this, but it looks like there are considerably more players than usual priced at 5.5 and 5.0, rather than 4.5 this year - presumably to reflect the slightly enhanced points prospects created by the introduction of additional 'defensive points' this season.]

A scale of prices

 

It is helpful to think of FPL player pricings in general categories. We must also keep in mind, of course, that the range of prices - and the average price level - varies for different positions. Value/price corresponds (or should correspond...) to points-potential; so, the different price strata across the different player positions are indicative of where most of the FPL points are expected to come from.

Also, it's really useful to keep in mind who seem to be the best options within each price category (and position) at any given point of the season, because it should be relatively easy to use your transfers to swap similarly priced players for each other, when one seems to be coming into better form than your present incumbent.

For defenders and goalkeepers, 4.5-4.9 million is mid-price, 5.0-5.4 is upper mid-price, 5.5-6.5 is premium (although I don't think I've ever seen a keeper priced higher than 6.0, and ir's pretty rare for defenders too); anything over 6.5 is super-premium. (there are rarely more than 1 oe 2 defenders who get priced at this highest level each season; this year, there are none). Under 4.5 million is cheap.

For midfielders and forwards, 6.1-7.0 is mid-price, 7.1-8.5 is upper mid-price, 8.6-9.9 is premium, 10.0 and over is super-premium; while 6.0 and under is cheap. (You can occasionally find some vaguely tempting prospects in these positions at only 5.0, or even 4.5 - but they're not usually worth it, except as short-term placeholders at the very start of the season, when budget can be super-tight; if you go for such a pick at first, to stretch the budget, you have to plan to move them out for an upgrade as soon as you reasonably can.)

With midfielders and forwards, there is usually a slight skewing towards higher prices for the forwards, with not only the few top-returning strikers being priced very, very high, but also most of the mid-price and upper mid-price options being a little higher than their equivalents in the midfield category. However, this is rather less pronounced this year, as fewer players than normal in either category have been assigned prices in the premium or high upper mid-price range.

You can't really afford to indulge in more than 5 or 6 premium or super-premium priced players; and no more than 2 or 3 of those can be super-premiums (arguably, none of them should be.... at least in certain years).  And you'll almost certainly have to 'pay for' those more expensive picks by getting a good budget option from the cheap price bracket (or the bottom end of 'medium price') to balance each one of them.

Often, at the start of the season, you glance through the roster of players, and think, "Oh, I'd like a, and b, and c, and x, and y, and z,... and j and k and...."  Guess what? You can't afford all of them! Budget is a beast! You have to make some hard choices at the start of the season: some players you really, really, really want... are going to have to be left out.

The fifth midfield slot is where the value lies

 

As I outlined yesterday, FPL's scoring system is so stacked in favour of midfielders - and so many of the game's 'midfielders' are in fact outright forwards, or at least frequent goalscorers - that it makes no sense to play fewer than 5 of them (except in rare cases).

Moreover, there is such a plethora of midfield choices at the lower end of the price scale that you can usually find very good points prospects for only 6 million (and often even better options at 6.5 million; although 6.0 is usually all you can afford in the initial squad), and sometimes at 5.5 or 5.0 (though just about never at 4.5!!).

However, among these 'less formidable' players (there's usually a good reason for their price being so low...), even more so than with more premium options, you are very unlikely to find someone who scores consistently well for a long period - much less across the season as a whole. In this price-bracket, you tend to find players like (last season) Alex Iwobi, Justin Kluivert, Anthony Elanga, Antoine Semenyo, and Jacob Murphy - who blow really hot for 4 or 5 or 6 games (maybe 8 or 10, if you're really lucky),.... and then lapse back into comparative anonymity again for a while.

More expensive players in the other midfield positions tend to be more consistent: they get really high weekly scores more often, contribute at least some additional points very frequently, and rarely or never suffer an extended string of 'blanks'. Because of this, they are worth sticking with, even if they do blank a few times (unless there are stronger indications than just the FPL returns that they and/or their team have suffered a serious crash in form). Also, you tend to be a bit locked-in to your more expensive players, because it is cumbersome to transfer very expensive players in and out (you generally have to burn through additional transfers and/or leave a significant amount of money unused in the bank for a week or three...; both of which are highly undesirable); and, if you want to buy them back again later, you may suffer a heavy hit from 'transfer tax'.

None of this is true for the cheaper midfield selections. It is easy to move them in and out of your squad at will. And you will want to, because it is highly unlikely that any of them will sustain a long run of good returns.

You should be constantly rotating your 5th midfield slot (and perhaps your 4th as well!), every month or two, to bring in whoever in that price category is hitting a hot run of form.

[Last year, a lot of people went for Morgan Rogers early in the season, and were sufficiently satisfied to hang on to him for the whole season. This was a HUGE mistake. Although he produced consistently enough to amass a very respectable points total for the season, his big returns were quite intermittent: he never put together a run of big-points weeks in succession, while numerous of his position rivals in the 'cheap' midfielder category did. Rogers was rarely even the best midfield performer overall in that price bracket (he was, narrowly, for the last couple of months of the season; but then got overtaken on the last day by Semenyo!); and he was never the best - not usually in the top 3 or 4! - over any short run of games. His season return of 161 points was barely more than the best defenders, and pitiful alongisde the best midfielders. You really want closer to 200 points for every starting position in your squad - even more for midfielders, since that is where most of your points come from! - if you are to have any hope of attaining the upper strata of the global rankings. You could achieve that if you succesfully rotated through all the best budget midfield options when they were in their best form; you can't get anywhere near it by sticking with a player like Rogers for the whole season. (Which is not to say anything against Rogers. He's very, very, very good as a real-world player. He's just not a season-hold for FPL. That's an important difference.)]

How to choose the INITIAL SQUAD

I already dropped a couple of short preliminary posts on this topic of choosing the initial squad yesterday: one on the constraints of the budget, and one on the need to abandon any thought of trying to pick a team that would be balanced and workable in real life (all left-footers, all wide players, all short and cross-eyed.... it's all good: the only thing you're interested in is their Fantasy points return, not how thay might gel together on the pitch in reality).

Now, here's the complete 'How to....'.    (Well, as near as I can manage. I'll try to be concise!)

[Sorry - it did get a bit LONG....  Pace yourselves!  I put in bolded headings to make it easier for you to find the topics that might be particularly interesting to you.]

Some basic principles....

Focus on midfield

Midifielders get a point more than 'forwards' (5, rather than 4) for every goal scored. They also tend to be rather more likely than most of the game's 'forwards' to register assists.... and pick up bonus points. And, unlike 'forwards', they get free extra points for clean-sheet bonuses (only 1 per game; but that can add up nicely over the season, especially in teams with stronger defences). And, outside of the top handful of high-priced players, they tend to be rather cheaper than the 'forwards', sometimes quite a lot cheaper. So, attacking midfielders with exactly the same number of attacking contributions as the leading 'forwards' tend to get 20 or 30 or 40 pts per season more! The best midfield options in the game usually offer you more total points, and certainly more points-per-pound, than 'forwards'. (There are rarely more than 3 forwards in the top 10 or 12 overall FPL points scorers; often, only 1....)

And the formation rules only allow you to play a maximum of 7 midfielders and forwards. So... you really want to play 5 goalscoring midfielders as often as you can (and thus only 2 forwards; sometimes only 1 forward!).

The game generously classifies a lot of outright forwards as 'midfielders' (they claim they do this on the basis of last season's 'heat maps' for the players, but I'm not convinced...): Salah, Diaz, Son, Bowen, Mbeumo, Nkunku, Hwang, Semenyo, Rashford, etc. (and last season, Richarlison, Gakpo, and Havertz too!). There are also a lot of wingers who may score - and assist - almost as much as (or even more than) most of the game's 'forwards': Gordon, Barnes, Saka, Martinelli, Kulusevski, Johnson, Neto, Sarabia, Mitoma, Rogers, Bailey, Garnacho, Diallo, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Doku, Bobb, Kluivert, Harrison, etc., etc.  And then there are some highly creative midfielders who also offer a very strong goal threat: Palmer, DeBruyne, Foden, Bernardo Silva, Odegaard, Eze, Bruno Fernandes, Maddison, Kudus, Gibbs-White, etc.

Usually only a few of the very best 'forwards' will outscore any of these attacking midfield options. So, the midfield is where you need to focus most of your attention - and most of your budget.

Two playing goalkeepers, but not too expensive

Now, some people favour the strategy of taking a main keeper and a back-up keeper from the same club, to save a little money (a lot of the second-string keepers are only 4.0 million); the thinking being that you'll have a guaranteed instant replacement if your first choice should get injured or dropped.

There's something to be said for that. But many of the second strings aren't actually that good; and having a keeper change forced on you in the middle of the season naturally disrupts the rest of the team a bit, especially the defence; so, you might well get significantly weaker returns from that back-up keeper.

And more importantly, you probably want to try to keep even the best keepers away from the toughest fixtures: anyone could ship a ton of goals away to Liverpool or City or Arsenal, or maybe Newcastle and Spurs and Villa too... or any team that's currently in a hot run of scoring form. So, having two decent keepers that you can rotate around the most daunting fixtures can be very valuable. 

Almost all defences do much better in home games as well. So, it's worth considering a pair of keepers who largely alternate their home and away fixtures. This page on the FPL site shows you which teams are exactly fixture-matched in this way. But there are other combinations that work pretty well most of the time - for fixture difficulty as well as home/away advantage. Last year the Leno/Areola pairing fitted together very nicely.

So, I think trying to save money with a non-playing second keeper is a dangerous ploy, a false economy. But you also don't want to spend too much money on keepers. They don't score that many points overall (Jordan Pickford was the only one who made it into the 'Top 25' overall points-scorers in FPL last season; often there are no keepers that high up the ranking...). And there tends to be less of a differential points spread between keepers: Pickford ended up quite a way ahead of the pack last year (that's unusual), but there were only 20 points separating the next 6 - and then there were a few others who didn't play the whole season but were nearly as good as Pickford on their points-per-game return. Hence, it's difficult to justify paying a 'premium' price for one of the very best keepers, when some of the 4.5-million-pound options will probably do almost as well (and maybe, if you're lucky, even a little better). [That holds for the start of the season, at least. In the last few months, you might have some more budget to spare - because you've grown your squad value, or because some of the premium players you started with have lost form or got injured - and you can then consider upgrading to one of the top-scoring goalkeepers.]

Also... Beware of keepers from the top sides! It is paradoxical, but... City and Arsenal in particular are so good defensively that their keepers rarely get called upon to make saves. And the 'saves' points can actually be as important - or even more important - to a goalkeeper's points total as his clean sheets. Teams down in the relegation zone often have keepers who produce very good points, even if they hardly ever manage to keep a clean sheet.

Beware of central defenders

Clean sheets are, of course, hugely valuable. Although in recent seasons, with Liverpool and even City losing a bit of their defensive solidity, there haven't been as many of them. Maybe only one or two teams will post really good numbers for that. Last year, Arsenal were way out in front with 18 (which made everyone want to 'double up' on their defenders). The year before, somewhat surprisingly, it was Man Utd.  But some lower-ranked teams can be unexpectedly resilient: last year, relegation-battling Everton were actually one of the best defences in the League; the year before, Brighton and Brentford were well up towards the top of the heap, alongside Newcastle and Villa.

However, all members of a defence get the same points for a clean sheet - regardless of how good a defender they are. (Most people would agree that William Saliba is Arsenal's best defender, and maybe the best defender in the League now - but he doesn't get any more points for that!)  So, the top-scoring defenders are almost always full-backs, especially very advanced full-backs (or outright wing-backs), because they offer a better prospect of some attacking returns - assists, and maybe even the occasional goal - as well as defensive actions.

There are exceptions to this. There have been some defenders who mysteriously hoover up the bonus points every week (even when their side has lost!), because they get on the ball and play a lot of passes in addition to completing a lot of defensive actions: Cristian Romero was a prime example of that in the early part of last season. (But NB: changes to the system for allocating bonus points this year, with defenders and keepers much more heavily penalised for conceding, will likely mean that they get far fewer bonus points in games where they don't keep a clean sheet.)  Some central defenders don't just step up into deep midfield occasionally, but go marauding all the way forward and contribute around the edge of the opposition box too (Antonio Rudiger was a monster for this at Chelsea a few seasons ago!). Some are so aerially dominant that they become 'agents of chaos' in attacking set-pieces and pick up a surprisingly large number of assists and goals that way (the late, great Tyrone Mings was a prime exponent). And of course, most central defenders can occasionally be a goal-threat at set pieces (but you shouldn't get too carried away by that; very few defenders score more than 2 or 3 goals in a season; and even fewer do that in successive seasons; when defenders score 2 or 3 goals in a short space of time, it's almost always a transient streak.... not an emerging trend!).

Finally, as with keepers, there isn't usually that much of a differential points-spread between defenders (so, to some extent, it barely matters who you pick!). There are often a few players who are well ahead of the pack: we've seen some exceptional returns in recent years from Cancelo, Alexander-Arnold, and Trippier. But there's not usually all that much to choose between the best of the rest: last year Ben White ended up well out in front, but there were 14 other players who averaged between 3.5 and 4.5 points per game. Hence, it's very difficult to justify spending a premium price for a defender. You might go for one or two of them - people like White or Trippier, if they look likely to be fit and in-form (and playing on their favoured flank: White was switched back to the centre for a little while at the start of last season, and Trippier was moved over to the left for a few games). But there are a lot of good options at the 5.0 and 4.5 price points - and even a few likely starters at only 4.0 million.

Beware of central midfielders (BUT.. they may have their place!)

Rodri and Caicedo and Rice are fantastic players, yes, fan favourites, and crucial to the way their teams play.... but they're not likely to get anywhere near the top of the FPL scoring charts.

You only get 5 midfield picks; and, as I outlined above, there are 20 or 30 possibilities who are regular goal-scorers - most of these should comfortably out-point even the best central defensive midfielders (if they stay fit and in-form...).

Ah, but there might be exceptions.... (There are always some exceptions!)  There are some central midfielders who are more box-to-box, and get involved in the attacking third as well quite a bit (e.g., Bruno Guimaraes). There are some who at least sometimes play a much more advanced role - and/or may be on set-pieces or penalties (e.g., Pascal Gross, James Ward-Prowse). There may be others who are transitioning into a more progressive role where they will sometimes go on a bit of a scoring streak (e.g., Declan Rice). And there are some who have the happy knack of coming up with just a few goals a season, but somehow always in the most crucial games (Rodri!). Now, none of these are usually likely to be anywhere near the 'Top 10' FPL points-scorers in midfield (well, Rodri and Rice actually finished around 10th last season, but that is unusually high for a player of this type; and I doubt if they'll do quite that well again; an awful lot of the more attacking midfielders missed big chunks of last season with injuries), but... if you look at the points-per-pound return  (select the 'Value (season)' option for the display on the FPL stats page), you find that Rice and Rodri were the TOP TWO midfielders last season... and Guimaraes, Gross, Tomas Soucek and Andreas Perreira also got into the 'Top 10' or thereabouts.

So...  for the 4th or 5th midfield spot, when your budget's starting to get a bit thin, players like this are worth considering. But you certainly want at least 3 of your midfield picks - and, if possible, 4 or 5! - to be regular goal-scorers.

Value-for-money

That 'Value (season)' stats listing on the FPL website is one of the most valuable tools for squad selection. You always want to be thinking about getting the most bang-for-your buck from every pound of your squad budget; and this page will help you make choices to do that. If you're torn between two options, bear in mind that the one with the higher points total last season might be unreasonably priced. If his rival has only slightly fewer points, but a much better points-per-pound return - he's probably the one you should go with.

However, some of the super-premium players are worth having, regardless of their unimpressive points-per-pound. Haaland's points-per-pound figures are bound to be fairly terrible. (Last year, Watkins and Solanke were the only 'forwards' to make the 'Top 40' on this metric. The top of the rankings - apart from Cole Palmer - were almost all goalkeepers and defenders; then some defensive midfielders.)  Salah's and Son's too. But players like these offer you the prospect of a huge overall points total. Moreover, they return uncommonly reliably, 'blank' relatively infrequently (well, Son not so much...); and they usually produce quite a few really huge hauls each season - which it can be painful to miss out on.  Palmer and Foden, and perhaps a few others, now seem to have joined this elite corps of players too - players who are 'above budget': you have to consider including them regardless of how much they cost or what their points-per-pound value is.

But as you go through the selection process, the value-for-money consideration becomes more and more important. When you only have 5 or 6 or 7 slots left to fill, and your budget is down to perhaps 30 million or so, it is absolutely vital to target the players who offer you the highest points-per-pound.

Forwards??

The approach to selection here varies greatly from year to year. A few seasons back, we had a weird situation where almost none of the weaker teams had a decent forward, and just about all of the more promising options (Vardy, Bamford, Ings, Calvert-Lewin,...) missed most of the season with injuries - leaving Harry Kane as just about the only worthwhile forward pick for long periods. There happened to be a lot of high-returning attacking full-backs that year too, so we found ourselves often going with a 4-5-1, or occasionally even a 5-4-1 formation - but that's a bit of a freak.

Two years ago, it was looking like Haaland was an inevitable pick for everyone, massively ahead of any of his rivals (except perhaps for Kane, who was getting ready to depart). But then Ollie Watkins began to show that he was a significant force too; and last season he actually out-pointed Haaland (though only because the lanky Viking missed two months of the season with injury). Alexander Isak, although a big injury worry, is also looking very potent. And we now have a wealth of promising options at lower price-points too: Mateta, Cunha, Muniz, Wood, Awoniyi, Joao Pedro... maybe Evan Ferguson, when he gets fit again.

The main dichotomy in strategy this season appears to be: take Haaland and/or Watkins (+ 1 other top striker, if you opt for only one of them; I might rather have Isak than either of them...), OR take 3 more mid-priced strikers.

Since, as I explained above, it's usually not a good idea to start more than 2 of your strikers (as there are plenty of goalscoring midfielders to choose from, who give you more points for the same goal contribution - and often for slightly less money too), you can probably save money with your third striker pick and go for a promising prospect in the 5.5-6.5 range. [As it happened, there were so many good performances in this price bracket - with veterans Wood, Welbeck, Raul and Vardy suddenly showing great form again early in the season, as well as strong newcomers Delap, Strand Larsen, and Evanilson - that you could in fact take all three strikers from the cheap end of the spectrum. With so many of the usually high-scoring midfielders having a spotty start to the year, it even became attractive to start all three strikers quite often! This, again, was a real freak circumstance.]

Haaland, Watkins, and Isak are - pretty unarguably - the three strongest striker picks this year; and almost everyone will be going with TWO of those, and one other. (No, there won't be a lot of differentiation on the forward line. Don't sweat it!)

I feel that the 'mid-priced' forwards are effectively priced out of contention this year: those priced between 7.0 and 8.0 million - Solanke, Mateta, Havertz, Alvarez, Gakpo, Darwin Nunez, Jesus, Hojlund, Richarlison, Toney, Wilson, Jackson [Zirkzee might be an exception??] - just don't bear comparison with the 'Holy Trinity' of Haaland-Isak-Watkins; but they're too expensive for that third slot that you're hardly ever going to use. (And, frankly, I don't think they're as good as some of the cheaper options - Cunha, Awoniyi, Wood, Muniz, and maybe Duran, if he moves to a club that will give him a start.)

Whether or not we can afford Haaland (plus 2 or 3 other premiums, such as Salah, Palmer or Foden) is the huge question of the moment for FPL enthusiasts... and I'll probably discuss that more in a later post.

Beware false economies - you NEED your bench!

A lot of FPL managers fall in thrall to the concept of the 'budget enabler': the idea that it's worth getting a few players at the cheapest possible price-point because it will give you a little bit more to spend on your starting eleven. Now, sure, it is useful - necessary, even - to have a few very cheap players to make the budget work for you. (This year, I'd probably go for 2 goalkeepers at only 4.5 each, 1 or perhaps even 2 defenders at 4.0, and most of the rest at 4.5; and a very cheap third forward and fifth midfielder.)

But a lot of people just grab blindly for the very cheapest options, without giving any thought to whether they bring any value to the squad. As I said above, every pound of that initial 100 million is important; every single one of them needs to be put to work. If you have a bench stacked with reserve-team players who will never get a start, you are storing up trouble for yourself!

The rate of injuries in the modern game has become insane over the last few years. Even 15 or 20 years ago, serious hamstring problems would only crop up a few times a season at any club, and ACL tears were quite a rarity across the entire League; last year, almost every single club had 3, 4, 5 players ruled out with injuries like that at any one time. I had to replace 55 players over the season because of injury (about 20 more than my previous worst season!); and that was serious injuries, not just minor knocks that might sideline someone for 2 or 3 gameweeks. You might get some sort of injury problem almost every week.... sometimes 2 or 3 or 4 in one week! And they often happen at the last-minute (even sometimes in the pre-match warm-ups!!), giving you no opportunity to transfer the affected player out. If you don't have a playing bench, sooner or later - probably sooner - you are going to find yourself putting out a team of only 10 (or 9, or 8...) men, and haemorrhaging points as a result.

And with so much pressure on the (these days, entirely inadequate) number of Free Transfers, you can't afford to waste those on short-term changes: if a player has a minor knock, or a suspension, or is likely to be rested for one weekend after some gruelling European ties, or just faces a particularly unpromising fixture next... you want to drop him to the bench, not move him out of the squad. That kind of thing also happens a lot.

So, by all means look for some ultra-cheap players to fill out the squad. But make sure they are regular starters - or at least have a decent chance of becoming so. (Valentin Barco, for example, might not be a nailed-on choice at Brighton, but does seems likely to get a few games at the start of the season because so many of their other defenders are currently injured.)  And try to get the best players you can: there are still choices to be made, even at these very low price-points. And it is worth paying just a little bit extra for a bench player who can actually give you a chance of some decent points, if you need to call on him.

Have an eye to 'investment picks'

On a related point to that last one... Another fatal drawback to choosing cheap players who don't play is that they become toxic assets. A lot of managers have probably included them because they mistakenly believe that they will play, or at least hope that they will; and they will start selling them off when they discover that they are nowhere near to getting a start (or they just discover early on how badly they need a proper bench!) - and their prices will crash.

It is essential to try to steadily boost your squad value (again, this is worth another post or two all of its own; I'll try to get around to it) - so that, after a few months, you might have an extra 2 or 3 million pounds available with which to upgrade your squad... perhaps get in one more of those coveted premium-price players that you couldn't quite afford at the start of the season.

In order to boost squad value, you need to avoid any players whose price is likely to drop (or quickly get rid of them if their price starts dropping), but seek out players whose price is likely to rise. These are what I call 'investment picks'. You might not actually fancy them for a long-term hold; you might never put them in your starting eleven, except in an emergency - but they can help you to grow your budget. The best prospects for this are usually fairly cheap. (Cheap players are usually lower-owned initially, but also more attractive as new acquisitions because of their accessibility. And price increases are mainly dependent on the percentage change in ownership - so, a relatively low-owned player who quickly gains 100,000 or 200,000 more owners is likely to shoot up in price.)  They are often conspicuously under-priced - either because they had a disappointing season last year (perhaps just because of injury absences, rather than actually playing poorly when they did turn out), or because they're new to the League (transfers in from overseas, or promoted youth team players) and no-one really knows how good they might be yet. And they're often on the brink of breaking into the first team, but it's not clear if they're quite there yet. If you can correctly anticipate that someone is going to get a run in the first team because of an injury or a crash in form for the usual starter.... you've got a good 'investment pick'. (I already mentioned Barco as an example. And Conor Bradley or Jarrell Quansah at Liverpool could be tempting to take a chance on for similar reasons - at least at some point during the season.)

Watch out for budget 'windfalls'

A lot of people seem to be grumbling at the moment that there aren't as many good options available at the lowest price-points as there have been in some previous seasons (I'd disagree with that, but...). Perhaps the main reason for that is that it's still too early. Late transfer activity usually brings in some very good new potential picks, often attractively priced down at around 5.0 million, or even 4.5 million - or, occasionally, if you're very, very lucky, at 4.0 million. The 'poster boy' for this phenomenon is, of course, Cole Palmer, who went from perpetual bench-warmer at City to Ballon d'Or fodder with Chelsea (well, you know, if they'd had any European football last year...). But last year also saw Areola's sudden promotion over Fabianski in goal for West Ham. And a couple of seasons before that, Neco Williams made an eve-of-season transfer from the Liverpool bench to a start with Nottingham Forest. So, 4.0-million pound starters, even, occasionally, quite good ones, can just drop in your lap out of nowhere right before the Big Kick-Off.  Be patient, and keep your fingers crossed.

In particular, keep an eye on low-key domestic moves. Very often 'Big Six' clubs will sell or loan out some of their surplus squad players or rising youth team stars to one of the lower-table or newly promoted sides: these can be particularly useful low-budget picks. But such moves often happen very late in the day; and they don't usually make big headlines.

And FORGET about 'differentials'!!!

This is another topic that should one day get a post all of its own (maybe a whole series of 'em!). Suffice it to say that I find this one of the most worthless, the most exasperating, the most overused and misused of all FPL jargon terms. The problem with it is that most managers seem to have a very muddled idea of what it really ought to mean: for most of them, in fact, it seems to be primarily interpreted as: 'Avoid good players because a lot of other managers will have them...'  This is, of course, self-harming nonsense. Utterly BATSHIT CRAZY, in fact.

People glance through the forums where FPL obsessives (like me, I know...) are frenziedly sharing their draft squads (already: three weeks before the season starts!), and if they see someone with several of the same players they have, they moan, "Oh, he's got ALL the same players as me." (NO, he doesn't; he might have 6 or 7 or 8 of the same players; but that's it.)  Then he finds one or two more who also seem to have some of the same players as him, and moans again, "EVERYONE has the same squad as me."  (NO, they don't. A lot of managers may have many of the same players as you.... but NOT  EVERYONE.)

Even the guys or gals who are most like you in their picks probably have no more than 7 or 8 of the same players. That means you have at least 3 unique picks in your starting eleven. And probably an entirely different bench. And maybe different captain and/or vice-captain picks as well. Your teams/squads are perfectly well differentiated. Even across the whole 10 million or so teams that will be regustered over the next few weeks, it is extremely unlikely that there will ever be more than a relatively small handful - and in many gameweeks, absolutely none at all - that are an exact match for yours. (And probably only ever for the starting eleven, not the whole squad. And that will only ever be a one-off, for one gameweek. NOBODY is going to duplicate your team for the entire season,... or even for two weeks in succession.)

Stop fretting about how many other people might be choosing a particular player. Just choose the players you think are going to bring in the most points... and see how you get on.

And finally.... just to recap on a couple of suggestions from yesterday's posts:

I recommend listing all the premium-priced players you might be interested in (if you can dismiss some from consideration right at the start, that's a big help). For all the ones you'd really like to squeeze into your squad, assign them a running-order - the order in which you'll be willing to sacrifice them if you have to.

And since deciding whether or not we can afford to do without Erling Haaland this season is a HUGE question for everyone at the moment, and one that's causing most of us a lot of difficulty, I also suggest... compiling TWO provisional draft squads: one WITH Haaland and one WITHOUT. Put them side by side, and see which one calls to you more....

OK, that's it.   SORRY it got so LONG.....

And SORRY: I really didn't want to encourage anyone to start picking their squads just yet. As I explained in this subsequent post, I think the beginning of August is WAY TOO EARLY to be giving any thought at all to your selections; you really don't want to start doing that until as late as possible before the BIG KICK-OFF.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE  FOR THE SEASON AHEAD!!!

Budget is a BEAST (A 'How to pick the initial squad' preliminary)

100 million quid might look like quite a lot (wouldn't turn it down as a Lottery win!!), but.... it's really NOT.  Picking that first squad at the beginning of the football year is a real challange.

I like to start a new season (and returning managers might like to try this too) by reassembling my players from the end of last year. (all those that haven't transferred out of the League), and seeing how much they are over budget now. Since I've usually grown my squad value to at least 105 million by the end of the year, and since I have all good players, who often jump up in price by at least 0.5 or 1.0 million... it's usually somewhere in the 110-115 million range, occasionally even more.

Here's another fun little exercise you can try, just to hammer home how limiting this budget cap is. Don't look at the individual player prices, just quickly pick a full squad of 15 - all the players you instinctively feel are likely to be the best for the season. See how much that costs. It's quite likely to be at least 120 million, maybe even 130 million.

Suitably chastened? Right, now you can get started on the selection process properly.....

This year the big price change is Cole Palmer's record-shattering one-season increase from 5.0 to 10.5 million.

Though perhaps even more momentous is Erling's Haaland's 1-million pound bump up to 15 million, which, although it's a much more modest percentage increase, may shift him over a crucial threshold where - for many FPL managers - it just won't seem viable to have him any more.

However, two big price increases on the most popular players might not mean that much in isolation. You have to consider pricing in its global context - how much everyone else is priced at this time. Foden has also seen a big price rise. And, unlike last year, almost none of the other 'big name' players have seen a drop. Moreover, there are as yet very few likely starters at the extreme low end of the price scale (but that may yet change: be patient).

So, the initial budget is quite squeezed this year - in a way it hasn't really been for about the last three seasons or so. Hence, the initial squad selection is likely to be quite a disorienting ordeal even for some of the more experienced Fantasy managers; for first-timers just joining the game, it could be an especially daunting prospect. Have courage: the conundrums are soluble.

Actually, I am for once quite favourably impressed with the faceless FPL gnomes who sort out all this stuff. The aim of the overall pricing structure should be to make the first squad selection difficult-but-not-impossible, it should force you to make some really tough choices. They haven't really managed that so well in recent years. But this year. I think they have.

 

'To Haaland, or not to Haaland...' is the big question right now (and I'll probably address it in detail in a week or two).  It is looking very difficult to include him along with more than one or two of the other most coveted, high-priced players... without leaving the rest of the squad extremely weak.

I would suggest making two initial drafts, one centred on Haaland and one omitting him. Then compare the two, and go with the one that looks strongest.  (And if you really can't choose, flip A COIN!!)

But it's not just Haaland. Look at all the other players who are premium-priced. If they're at 10 million or above (6 million for defenders or goalkeepers), we might consider them super-premium. Write out a list. They might all be players that you'd really want in an ideal world. This isn't that world; this is a mean, cruel world - where you have to make tough choices.

See if there are any you can dismiss from consideration right away, as not being absolutely essential. Then assign a running-order of desirability to the others... the order in which you'll have to let them go, one by one, if the budget won't stretch.

Accept the necessity of making these sacrifices. It might be some of your favourite players, perhaps players who've served you very well in the last few years of Fantasy. Hard luck - they might have to go! It might be very vexing, frustrating, upsetting... but you've got to do it.

If you've got the list down to 4 or 5 players, you could stick them all in your provisional squad. But be warned, once you've juggled with the less expensive options elsewhere, you might find yourself still needing to consider letting one or two more of them go.

This is the dance. Get used to it.