A scale of points

 

Following on from last week's observations on the significance of 'price steps' in FPL, here are a few thoughts on the similar tiering of points performance.

Of course, you don't know what points totals players are actually going to reach until the end of the season. And many of them will come up short of these thresholds because they've missed a significant number of games while injured or out-of-favour. 

Before the start of the season, you have to make your best guess as to what each player's final level is likely to be.  And then during the campaign, you have to try to calculate for yourself what end-season total a player is tracking for, if he's producing reasonably consistently while he has a regular start. 

You're looking for what a full-season total would be, on the basis of recent form.

Also, obviously, the 'levels' below aren't absolutely rigid: their boundaries are blurry - the top-end of one bracket is usually interchangeable with the bottom of the one above. However.....

I like to think of FPL player points-potential in the following steps or levels:

Level 0:  Less than 120 points for the season

Not worth considering. AVOID like the plague. Unless they happen to come into a really hot streak for a brief spell! That can happen to almost anyone....

Level 1:  120-139 pts

You really only want to consider going this low for your 4th and 5th defender spots, who are primarily for back-up only, and who you hope you might rarely or never call on. However, you assuredly will have to use both of them sooner or later (and not only for a possible Bench Boost!), so you should only consider going this low on points potential in your initial squad. Even these marginal positions need to be upgraded to Level 2 as soon as is convenient.

Level 2:  140-159 points

You want both goalkeepers and all your defenders (even the two back-ups!) to be solidly in this category - and, ideally, towards the upper end of it.

Level 3:  160-179 points

You'd like your top keeper choice, and at least one or two of your defenders to make it into this category - but that's a very big ask; it might not be possible every year. (Although there's much uncertainty at the moment arising from the abrupt introduction of the new 'defensive points'. It is possible that rather more defenders, and even a few defensive midfielders might just about get up to this level, thanks to the extra points now available to them.) But at the very least, you'd expect those players to be around the Level 2/Level 3 cusp.

It is very likely that your 2nd and 3rd forwards and your 4th and 5th midfielders will only be at this level for the season (perhaps even a little lower!); but these are the slots you need to be most often rotating, to try to keep catching players who are coming into hot runs of points-scoring form. That can elevate your effective returns for these squad slots to Level 4, or even perhaps Level 5.

Level 4:  180-199 points

You hope that your three best midfielders, one or two of your best forwards, and perhaps occasionally - if you're lucky - one exceptionally high-performing defender might get up to this level. If they do, they're probably players that you can hang on to for an extended spell; sometimes - though rarely - a full season-long hold.

Level 5:  200-219 points

This is starting to get into the realms of 'wishful thinking'. Only a handful of players ever get up to this kind of level for the season; and it is possible that, in certain years, no-one will. However, you have to watch out for the season-projection on emerging form, and recognise that some players will produce at this level for only a short run of games at a time. Try to be on them when they do!

Level 6:  220-239 points

This is now a very rarefied level. Only a few of the very best players are capable of getting this high. And you probably can't afford all of them. The big challenge at the start of the season is trying to identify the players likeliest to have a chance of reaching this exceptional level of long-term performance, then figuring out which of them look most likely to start the season strong,.... and frantically juggling your budget to see how many of them you can fit in.

Level 7:  240+   (God-like)

Now, of course, a top player who has a really outstanding season can get well beyond this, sometimes even edging up close to 300 points. And Mo Salah last season managed over 100 points more than this (but that was a once-in-a-generation freak, shattering even his own previous best by a huge margin!!). But, in general, this is an absolutely outstanding level, which not may players will attain even once in their careers. Only an elite few - Salah, Haaland, Palmer, the only members of the 'club' at the moment - have the potential to do so regularly. But a few others might be able to join them at these dizzying heights: Foden (if he can find his way again), Saka (if he can stay fit all season, and is unchained from the right touchline a bit more often), Wirtz (though probably in a year or two, rather than in his debut season), and maybe Eze (if he can stay fit and in-form, and enjoy slightly better luck; he really deserved at least a 200-point season last year...).

Who's likely to perform at these various levels this season?  Well, I'll try to give that some thought over the next few days. 

It's still really a bit too early to be thinking about choosing the initial squad!

But.... GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE FOR THE COMING SEASON!!!