Picks of the Week (7)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

Now, these ideas for Gameweek 16 of this season are perhaps even more speculative than usual.... I reiterate that none of the prospects I tend to discuss in this series are categorically unmissable opportunities, they're more intriguing possibilities that are perhaps being unduly overlooked. And there may be more of those than usual this week because so many people are using up all or most of their AFCON Free Transfer bonanza straight away - making this one of the busiest weeks of transfer activity in the whole season (very probably the busiest!); and yet there are a relative handful of 'most popular transfers' dominating that activity so far, and it doesn't include any of these guys. I am not trying to say my trio below are 'better' than any of those many much, much more popular picks; but I do think they are worth some consideration.

So, first up, I give you Mason Mount. Of course, the reservations about him would be the fact that he's playing for Manchester United, who, though greatly improved this season, are still showing rather inconsistent and unconvincing form; that form might well get even worse when they lose their - so far - only consistent goal-threat in Mbeumo, and one of their most potentially game-changing creative talents in Amad Diallo to AFCON next week; and lastly, of course, his terrible injury record since joining the club has undermined a lot of people's faith in his being able to stay fit for any length of time (or his being able to inspire his manager to trust him with regular minutes). But to counter that, I would say that we know from his performances at Chelsea - and for United, whenever he's managed a start - just how good he can be; and he has looked absolutely on fire recently, scoring a goal in each of his two recent starts for United. Moreover, I think the AFCON departures actually work in his favour: the most obvious slot for him to slip into is as a replacement for Mbeumo in the right-sided 'deep attacker' role; and the only other person who can really fill that slot is Diallo. So, if he can stay fit, he's pretty much guaranteed a start, I think; and probably in the role that gives him the most opportunity to register attacking contributions. And the fixtures are quite encouraging: a very nice run of Wolves, Leeds, and Burnley over the holidays, but recently faltering Bournemouth up next could be a good opportunity too, and Villa and Newcastle aren't too daunting either: Villa have been 'over-performing' dramatically, and are due for a stutter, while Newcastle usually struggle a bit away from home.

Next.... I rather fancy Emile Smith Rowe from Fulham as well. As with Mount, the main problem with him is his poor injury record in the last couple of seasons, and his shortage of starts so far this year, which have raised questions not only about his resilience to knocks, but more generally about his stamina and fitness (it may just be an unfortunate quirk of his physiognomy that he almost always looks just slightly overweight for a professional footballer....). But also like Mount, he has looked absolutely on fire in his last couple of outings for the club, and has an opportunity now to get much more regular gametime, with Alex Iwobi about to head off to AFCON. Moreover, it would appear that he's likely to be used in a central creative role, the kind of 'No. 10' space where he really thrives,... and that he's also now looking to break into the box with late runs pretty often, which may give him the opportunity to pick up quite a few goals as well as assists. This might be only a short-term punt, and I do have worries about how badly Fulham's already precarious form may suffer with the sudden loss of not only Iwobi but also Bassey and Chukwueze to the Nigeria squad, but.... their next three fixtures look very inviting: Burnley, Forest, and West Ham. The most popular Fulham transfer in FPL this week has been Harry Wilson, and I can see the appeal: he's been a fairly regular starter this year, and has been in pretty consistently outstanding form - with slightly better than one attacking contribution per two starts, including a few absolute bangers of goals. But he's had 335,000 Fantasy managers buy him this week, compared to less than 13,000 so far for Smith Rowe; and that's an unreasonable imbalance - it implies that people are just jumping on a bandwagon without fully considering the possible alternatives. As I said in this key post on the real meaning of 'differential' back at the start of this season, it is a mistake to suppose that there's any advantage in simply favouring less popular, lower-owned players in FPL; but.... if there's really nothing objectively to choose between two possible picks, then ownership level should be the tiebreaker. And I really believe that Smith Rowe's prospects in the next few gameweeks look just about as good as Wilson's, and possibly just a little bit better - but no-one's on him at the moment!

Finally, with Arsenal currently missing their three first-choice centre-backs to injury (which makes their remaining defenders slightly less secure picks than before; and Calafiori's missing with suspension this week too!), and Palace likely to be without their hugely influential right wing-back Daniel Munoz for at least a month, there's suddenly the scope to try out one or two new options in an FPL defence - and Newcastle full-back Tino Livramento looks like a very appealing possibility. He has looked absolutely sensational since his return from injury a month ago, and has helped to transform the performances of the entire team; he hasn't recorded any FPL returns yet, but that's surely just a matter of time. I am hesitant to back his team in their next game, as the North-East derby can be particularly volatile, and Sunderland this year are looking a really solid team; but they then have Manchester United, Burnley, Leeds, and Wolves in the next 5 weeks - one of the better fixture runs for any team at the moment. I do feel, though, that it's really a bit of a toss-up between him and his left-back teammate, Lewis Hall. Hall, for me, can be even more of an attacking prospect, but.... he doesn't always get so far forward down that flank, because Gordon and Barnes like to stay wide in the final third; and he's more recently back from injury, might not yet be trusted with heavy minutes in the packed holiday schedule.

So - there you have it: my 'Early Christmas Present' - 3 rather less expected 'ones to watch' over the coming weeks!

Picks of the Week (6)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

Well, I haven't done one of these roundups yet this season, so I suppose I'm overdue....  Here goes.

The guy I've got most excited about over the past month is Brighton's new attacking midfielder from Paraguay, Diego Gomez. He really looks a complete package, and is brimming with confidence: that brace of goals against Leeds didn't look like a one-off to me. Brighton's team form has appeared to be on a strong upward trend in recent weeks, and  - apart from away trips to Liverpool and Arsenal! - they have a fairly inviting run of fixtures over the next month-and-a-half. And he's a steal at 4.9 million! If you're looking for a change in midfield - tiring, perhaps, of Grealish or Reijnders or Enzo Fernandez or Kudus or Semenyo - he's a tempting possibility; and completely 'under the radar' at the moment, with a puny 25,000 owners. However, we have to acknowledge that this would be a particularly speculative and risky pick: Gomez has only just graduated to a regular start, and Brighton have such a deep squad that rotation is always a danger; he might be competing with Mitoma or Gruda for the place before long. But I have an inkling this might be a gamble worth taking. He's just playing so damn well the moment that he might even be able to keep the start over Mitoma; but I think he could equally play off the right side (displacing Minteh), not as an outright winger perhaps, but nominally starting out wide, and drifting in to fill in a playmaker role in the right-half space, like Cole Palmer or Martin Odegaard. Indeed, I have a hunch his best position might actually be as a central 'No. 10'; it would be hard for him to achieve precedence over the excellent Georginho Rutter in that slot - but it is surely inevitable that Welbeck will pick up an injury sooner or later, and if that happens, I think it is likely that Rutter will switch to operating as their '9' or 'false 9', vacating the 'No. 10' space for Gomez. But of course, none of those optimistic eventualities may come to pass, and he might just be relegated to the bench again as soon as Mitoma's fully fit.

Alejandro Garnacho has also started to look on fire in his last couple of outings for Chelsea. At just 6.4 million, and with an ownership of less than 70,000, he too seems to be an underappreciated asset. The reservations on this pick would be that his frequent defensive weaknesses (I prefer to think of them as being down to 'inattentiveness' rather than 'laziness', but he can be a bit of a liability out of possession sometimes, especially in the defensive third) probably make him more likely to get limited minutes even when he's starting; he'l almost always be taken off for the last 20 minutes or so, whenever Chelsea have a lead to protect. And a regular start might be in doubt - as Palmer will probably start nominally wide on the right when he's available again (soon, we hope!) and Neto will probably then be regarded as the strongest option for a regular spot on the left. Also, Chelsea have a bit of an up-and-down fixture schedule: a few inviting opponents, but a home game soon against Arsenal, and then away trips to Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Manchester City over the following month. Nevertheless, I feel strongly tempted by Garnacho at the moment; I think I would resist the temptaion; and I fear I might regret resisting it - as he'll probably come up with one or two really big hauls in the next few weeks!

And finally, it might be worth giving Leandro Trossard a thoughtt as well (if you don't have him already: only 85,000 do - but that number is substantially up from two weeks ago); he's looked Arsenal's most dangerous player in recent weeks, with 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 starts. The doubt about him is that once Odegaard's available again (although there's still no definite timeline for his return), Eze is likely to switch back to the left flank, returning Trossard to the bench (although he might also start as a central striker if Gyokeres is going to be out a bit longer). Arsenal might face a bit of a challenge with London derbies against Spurs and Chelsea in their next two matches; but after that, they have a pretty soft run through the rest of December. Trossard would therefore be a very appealing pick - if only we could be confident that he would retain a regular start. (Unfortunately, that is becoming more and more of a doubt for a majority of players at the top clubs. It is a major pain for FPL selection!)

Pick of the transfers

Newcastle's new striker 

(It was either this or 'Mr Blobby' - consider yourselves lucky!)

There was indeed a last-minute surge of loan and transfer business at the end of the summer transfer window, with 25 new deals being concluded on Monday (and a few being cancelled!).

Now that the dust is settling from all of that mayhem, I thought I'd quickly review what I think the most interesting moves will be, in terms of their likely impact for FPL managers. In most cases, these are not the biggest names, or players joining the biggest clubs; they are players who've rarely been given a proper opportunity at their former clubs in recent years, and might now suddenly blossom when they enjoy the prospect of a regular start. Picks like these - only fringe players, at best, at their original clubs, or new arrivals from abroad and hence fairly unknown quantities in the Premier League - are quite low-priced,... and may perhaps prove to be very attractively under-priced. 

Moreover, such players joining clubs that have had a weak start to the season will have more scope to have a really transformative impact; and that could have significant knock-on effects, greatly improving their new side's prospects for the season and boosting the FPL value of some of their thus far disappointing teammates. That's why I think these options are the ones most worthy of careful consideration. (I'll mention some of the more high-profile trades briefly at the end of this piece.)

So, for me, these are the ones to watch, among the recently transferred players:

Harvey Elliott (Aston Villa) - Klopp himself said that one of his greatest regrets was failing to find a way to give Elliott more minutes at Liverpool (it was a problem that his best position is as an attacking midfielder off the right flank, a position that is inevitably monopolised by Mo Salah; though he does also look pretty handy as a No. 10...). I've been a huge fan of his for the past four years: almost always outstanding whenever he did get on the pitch for Liverpool, and for the England Under-21s, I think he has the potential to be as good as Palmer or Saka. Even if he doesn't quite scale those heights - not immediately, anyway - I think he is just what Villa need to re-energize themselves after their dismally flat start to the season. At only 5.4 million, I suspect Elliott could now prove to be one of the best value-for-money returners of the season, and a prime candidate for the crucial 5th midfield seat. (And even if he isn't, he might help to revitalise the FPL appeal of players like Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, and Youri Tielemans.)

Jack Grealish (Everton) - Jack has made an outstanding start at Everton already, and it's great to see him playing with a smile on his face again. His price has already jumped to 6.7 million, but in this much-improved Everton side, he's currently looking like he might get an assist almost every week, as players like Ndiaye and Beto regularly get into good positions to receive his deft crosses and cutbacks. (But that may well mean that Ndiaye and Beto are actually the better picks from Everton. Grealish might only ever contribute assists - and that's really not enough for FPL.)

Xavi Simons (Spurs) - For me, the most exciting of the big-name overseas signings, and one who could potentially have almost as big an impact as Elliott and Grealish. The thing restricting the scope of his importance for his new club's performance, I think, is not his ability but the fact that Spurs had a pretty good squad already - and have made a really strong start to the season; there's not that much room for a new player to drastically improve things. With other left-sided attacking players like Richarlison, Tel, and Odobert that they could call on, there might in fact be some doubts about whether Simons will be an invariable starter; but I feel they wouldn't have bought him if they were satisfied with their existing options; Simons should surely be the default starter, if fit. And he is very, very good.

Callum Wilson (West Ham) - The big problem with Wilson, of course, is that he's rarely managed to stay fit for more than 8 or 10 games. But when he's healthy and in-form, he's a hell of a striker; and he looked absolutely on fire in his debut for the Hammers in Gameweek 3. And since the club had had such a dreadful start to the season - becoming instant relegation favourites after their abysmal showing in the first two games - the opportunity for him to be a catalyst for transformation is huge. As long as he can keep out of the treatment room, he is looking by far the best of the 6.5-and-under forward options (he's only 5.9 million at the moment).

Dan Ndoye (Nottingham Forest) - Forest's new right-winger has been one of the biggest successes of the new summer signings so far. He's got a lot to do to rival the impact that Elanga achieved in the second half of last season, but he's made an outstanding start, with a goal and an assist in his first two games. He might now face some competition for the place from late signing Dilane Bakwa, who also looks quite handy; but the start is surely Ndoye's for the time being.

Reiss Nelson (Brentford) - Brentford have also had a rocky start, and desperately need an infusion of new blood to revinvigorate their attack. And the talented Arsenal youngster could be just the player to give them that. Of course, there will be worries about how far his development - and confidence - have been set back by getting so few minutes at his home club, and by missing most of last season with a succession of injuries. But if he's back to his best, Reiss should thrive on the responsibility of being a main creative provider at a smaller club.

Nick Woltemade (Newcastle) - 'Voldemort', as I'm sure he'll soon be known, hadn't registered on many people's radars; Newcastle had been impressively stealthy in their pursuit of him. But the estimable Adam Clery (best tactical analyst on Youtube and Newcastle uber-fan) rates his potential very highly, and that's enough for me to put him on the watchlist. Although the Stuttgart striker's a very big lad (probably about to become the Premier League's tallest player), it seems he's got very good feet as well, and likes to drop deep and play in teammates from the No.10 space as well as occasionally causing mayhem in the box. All players new to clubs (and especially forwards) take some time to settle in; and most players joining from overseas (especially forwards) also struggle a bit at first to adapt to the physical intensity of the Premier League. So, we'll probably need to give him some time to bed in; and we'll have to accept that, at least at first, he's probably going to be minutes-sharing quite a bit with their other new forward signing, Yoane Wissa. But I am quietly optimistic about his prospects; if he might not be quite as explosive a finisher as Sesko or Gyokeres, I feel he might thrive at Newcastle more than those other two will at their new clubs.

Senne Lammens (Manchester United) - I have no idea how good the young Belgian keeper is, but he's got to be a substantial improvement on Onana and Bayindir, hasn't he?? United's defence has usually managed to remain fairly secure, even when the team in front of them was at its worst; and they've actually started this season rather promisingly, with Dorgu and Yoro finally shaping up, and Luke Shaw back from his latest long injury absence. A decent keeper behind the back-three could give the club a major boost. Unfortunately, at 5.0 million, he's probably too expensive to be of much interest in FPL himself (unless United suddenly go on a clean-sheet bender!); but he might be the catalyst that helps spark a more successful run of performances, and hence make some of their other players more worthy of consideration.

Anthony Elanga (Newcastle) - He's progressed in leaps and bounds since his departure from Manchester United, and seems very excited about his move to Newcastle. Their swift attacking style should suit him down to the ground, and - if he can develop a good rapport with their new striker(s) - I can see the potential for a lot of attacking contributions from him this season. However, with Jacob Murphy so good in that right-flank role during the second half of last year, and Barnes and Gordon also able to play on that side, it might be doubted if he'll be an invariable starter. There'll probably be quite a lot of rotation around the big European fixtures, unfortunately.

Tyler Dibling (Everton) - The England youth international was one of the few bright spots in Southampton's brief visit to the Premier League last season. Unfortunately, he's now classified as a midfielder rather than a full-back, and he might not get a regular start as winger/wing-back/full-back on Everton's right (and, even if he does, we can expect that they'll strongly favour attacking down the left, through Grealish). But if he gets a run of starts, and hits a vein of form, he's one of those who could be in consideration for occasional rotation through the 5th midfield slot. My expectation for his season is that he'll be looking to make enough of a splash to get himself a move to a bigger club.

Joao Palhinha (Spurs) and Mateus Fernandes (West Ham) - And to finish, two outstanding central midfielders, who will, I think, certainly play a crucial role in stabilising their sides and making them more leak-proof; and both should benefit substantially from the new 'defensive points' this season. Fernandes also showed quite a knack for picking up a goal with Southampton last season; Palhinha is also capable of scoring a few, but at Fulham he relied heavily on taking the penalties to boost his FPL returns, and he's unlikely to be given that duty at Spurs. These are probably not players who are directly worth considering for FPL themselves; but they might help to elevate the appeal of some of their teammates!

 

I hesitated to add Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton) to this list, because I'd already nominated 2 Everton players. And I suspect he won't maintain the deadly scoring form he's shown at the start of the season for long. But he's another player I've admired for years, since he first started appearing for Leicester; and I'm very excited about what he could achieve with his new club. If he does go on a scoring streak, he's definitely worth looking at for the 5th seat.

I also omitted Joao Pedro (Chelsea), purely because, with the deal having been done shortly after the end of last season and him having already helped to win the Club World Cup in July, he no longer feels like a 'new' transfer! But I think I'd place a bet that JP will be the highest FPL points-returner of all this year's signings.

There are grave doubts about their clubs' prospects this season, after losing so many key players over the summer, but Caoimhin Kelleher and Michael Kayode (Brentford), and Bafode Diakite and Adrien Truffert (Bournemouth) look to me like the most promising new options at the defensive end of the pitch.

[Well, damn, none of these newcomers have really set the world on fire yet; the keeper and defenders at the end of the review are the only ones who've performed decently and consistently. Grealish (and Ndoye - and Dewsbury-Hall and Joao Pedro!) faded after a bright start, Xavi Simons just hasn't been able to find his form at Spurs yet, Reiss Nelson's been injured, Elanga has struggled to settle in at Newcastle and has been displaced by Jacob Murphy, Tyler Dibling's only getting occasional cameos off the bench, Callum Wilson's yet to make an impact at West Ham (although at least he graduated to a regular start in GW10), and poor Harvey Elliott seems to have got on Unai Emery's wrong side (although, of course, it doesn't help that he's fighting for a place against John McGinn and Emi Buendia), But at least they haven't been such abject disappointments as the 'big name' signings below all proved to be in the opening three months of the season! Really, only Palhinha, Lammens, and Woltemade (and Ekitike) had an immediate impact at their new clubs. As of late November, veryone else was still stuck in 'failure to launch' status.]

And these are the ones to curb your enthusiasm over:

Alexander Isak (Liverpool) - After skipping team training since the start of the new season (and with little opportunity to train now with his new club during a two-week international break), it is very doubtful if Isak will be either physically or tactically ready for a start in Gameweek 4,... and perhaps not even in Gameweek 5 or 6. Moreover, Ekitike and Gakpo have really been playing too well so far to be dropped. And even when he is ready to be integrated into the side, it's likely that he'll be rotated with Ekitike a fair bit, to keep him fresh for the big European games. Even if he were to play a full 90 minutes in every Premier League game (and that is not going to happen), he's unlikely to be as productive for FPL at Liverpool, where he's only one of their many routes to goal, as he was at Newcastle, where he was the primary outlet. This might be a very good move for his career, but - paradoxically! - it's probably a pretty terrible one for his fans in FPL-land; his points prospects are now significantly reduced, and even if he does really, really well,... he's unlikely to be worth his 10.5-million price-tag any more.

Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) - I could be wrong on this, but my suspicion is that Newcastle just wanted some decent quality back-up to ease the pressure on Woltemade during his bedding-in phase, and thought a player like Wissa, used to playing second-fiddle at Brentford for the last few years, would accept - however grudgingly - such a subordinate role. I don't see him being the regular starter once the German's found his feet. And, as with Isak, because he's been a naughty boy and withdrawn himself from training to try to force through his transfer, he's unlikely to be ready to play until Gameweek 5 or 6.

Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) - The Gunners just haven't hit their stride yet. And the period of adjustment to a new country and club is likely to be even tougher for Gyokeres, or rather for his team - because they've got used to playing without a central striker for the past few years. I believe Gyokeres will eventually come good, and perhaps be one of the top-returning forwards this season; but it might take another month or two before that really starts happening.

Ebere Eze (Arsenal) - Rather as with Isak, but more so, Eze isn't likely to be sufficiently indoctrinated with Arteta's tactical approach to be considered as a starter for a few weeks; and he might not get regular starts even then (there are good reasons to prefer Martinelli against certain opponents). And even if he is starting most games, it is unlikely that Arsenal will transform their overall style to accommodate such a maverick (Arteta likes disciplined team build-up, not flamboyant improvisation), or that they will substantially shift their attacking emphasis away from their favoured right side (White-Odegaard-Saka). Eze, unfortunately, is now a huge minutes-risk, and even if he plays regularly is unlikely to have anywhere near as much impact as he did at Palace - where he was invariably the primary creative force, and a primary goalscorer.

Benjamin Sesko and Bryan Mbeumo and Mateus Cunha (Manchester United) - This trio look on paper as if they should be the most terrifying attack in the Premier League. But so far, they've been looking as if they might become the most terrifying attack in the Championship next year. Amorim, for some reason, hasn't even trusted Sesko with a start yet; and the other two have shown only brief glimpses of the attacking danger they exhibited so regularly for their old clubs. They are hamstrung by playing in a still largely dysfunctional team (central midfield is the backbone of any successful side, and United at the moment just don't have one) under a coach who seems to have completely lost the plot. Also, I've always suspected that these three guys just aren't really going to fit together, they have no complimentary chemistry.

None of Pep's recruits - no, not even Ait-Nouri or Reijnders or Cherki - can be guaranteed regular starts. And City just aren't playing that well, anyway: they look like they could struggle even worse than they did last season, and face a real battle to stay in contention for Champions League qualification. And I doubt if Donnarumma can turn things around for them: he might be the world's best keeper, but they already had three outstanding shot-stoppers on their books - what they needed was a new keeper who was really good in early build-up play, and Donnarumma isn't that.

Randal Kolo Muani (Spurs), I'm actually really intrigued about: I think he's very talented, and could turn out to be a great acquisition for them. But I suspect he's just been brought in to add squad depth for their Champions League campaign, and I doubt he'll immediately displace Solanke or Richarlison as the main central striker options.

Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool), who has been, to date, probably the strongest of the big clubs' signings, is unfortunately now likely to become a minutes-risk, after the somewhat superfluous addition of Isak to the Liverpool squad.

And, as I said in early August, although Florian Wirtz is a great player, it's likely to take him at least a couple of months or so to fully settle in at Anfield, and even when he has, he's not going to be a particularly prolific goalscorer - so, for FPL, there are almost certainly other Liverpool players you'll want more.

I have similar doubts about Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez. I think they'll both be fine eventually, but are likely to have a difficult settling-in period. And, at the moment, Liverpool just aren't looking very secure defensively, and even the great Van Dijk is seeming a questionable pick.

So, no, sorry - none of the more glamorous signings get my juices flowing at the moment. They might, when they settle in and find some form; but for now, they don't seem worth gambling on.

Picks of the Week - DGW33

Which players should we covet specifically for this week's Double Gameweek??

Well, this should even quicker than last week's review of the options....

NONE.

Or at least, none that you don't have already.

If there are a lot of doubling teams to choose from, you can make sure you only get the best players from the best teams, with the best fixtures. And you can try to minimise the number of players you have who are pitched against each other in the same match.

With a smaller Double Gameweek like this, you can't do that. You only have 4 teams to choose from - and, inevitably, they're all playing each other. And the other team they're playing is a daunting opponent, for three of the four. Only Arsenal actually have a decent double-fixture. The others are best avoided, at least for defensive assets, as it's difficult to have much confidence that they'll win either game; certainly, clean sheets don't look very likely for anyone.

Moreover, apart from Arsenal, the doubling teams aren't all that good - only mid-table sides this year: good mid-table sides, yes, but they've been so inconsistent, and have such glaring defensive frailties, that they're left scrapping with the likes of Fulham and Brighton for the chance of a place in the lesser European competitions next year, rather than challenging hard for Champions League qualification: Palace, Villa, and City are just not teams to be all that enthused about at the moment.

Loading up on doubling players should be dismissed as undesirable/impossible if you haven't kept your Free Hit or Wildcard to get yourself out of trouble in the following week when those players will all miss a fixture. And if you use the Free Hit to get around the Blank Gameweek, you're then left with all those players for the rest of the season. Do you really want 10 or 12 players from those teams, with their remaining runs of fixtures?? Do you even want 7 or 8?? I would suggest NOT. So, you won't just be burning transfers to bring players in for this week, you'll probably be burning more to get rid of most of them again as soon as possible. It is very, very unlikely that any doubling player will give you enough of a points lift to justify using two transfers on them in a short space of time.

I would rather be considering moving out some players from the doubling teams, as I really don't see much value from Palace or Villa players with their fixtures.

Arsenal have a good chance of picking up one clean sheet, possibly two - so it could be tempting to load up on their defence and/or get Raya in goal. But as I just noted above, you might not want to be overstocked with Arsenal defensive assets beyond this week, as their next three opponents - Bournemouth, Liverpool, and Newcastle - are quite challenging (and they'll probably be somewhat distracted by the forthcoming Champions League showdown with PSG). Most people have William Saliba already, since there was never that much to choose between him and Gabriel as the most reliable defensive pick for FPL this year, and for those who hadn't picked him already, he was the natural replacement for Gabriel when he tore his hamstring at the start of this month. There's a bit too much uncertainty about rotation in the rest of the Arsenal defence, though Jurrien Timber or perhaps Ben White could be worth gambling on. David Raya, though, I would be wary of, because of the following fixtures. As for attacking assets - well, they don't have a striker, none of their attacking midfielders have established regular goalscoring form, and there's too much likelihood of rotation in those positions. Some people are getting over-optimisitic about Bukayo Saka's prospects now that he's back from injury - but I think he's likely to be wrapped in cotton wool and saved for the PSG games. The in-form (and rarely rested) Declan Rice would be my pick, if you are going for another Arsenal man. Trossard, Merino, or Martinelli could always come up with something; but it's so difficult to guess if they'll start in both games.

Most people already have Omar Marmoush (well, over 31% own him), who's been in excellent form lately - although arguably not a top three striker pick, without the benefit of an additional fixture. Many have Josko Gvardiol as well (and indeed, have held on to him all season): his goalscoring is phenomenal, but his opportunities to register attacking contributions are severely limited when he plays in central defence; and City still look like they're going to be leaking a lot of goals. All the attacking midfield options are far too at risk of unpredictable rotations. Kevin DeBruyne is the only one who'd tempt me, after his sensational performance against Palace last week; but he is turning 34 in a couple of months, and definitely starting to show his age - I fear it's very doubtful that he'll play a full 90 minutes twice within a few days.

Many people have Morgan Rogers (or Asensio or Rashford) already. Fine to keep them, and keep your fingers crossed, for this week; but it's difficult to imagine them getting much against Newcastle or City. And Villa, alas, have usually been dreadful immediately after one of their big European games; that's likely to be even worse this time, with them being emotionally depleted as well by the narrow loss to PSG. I certainly wouldn't touch any Villa defensive assets with a bargepole for these two games. And Ollie Watkins isn't worth getting in just for this week.

Palace, I fear, may be badly demoralised by the two heavy spankings they've just suffered; these defeats might signal a collapse in form. Part of the problem might be that they just don't have a deep enough squad at the moment to cope with playing twice in a week - and they're now looking at having had to play four times wihin 10 or 11 days. Mateta looks to be out of form, perhaps inhibited by his painful ear injury. Sarr has been predictably disappointing (just not a reliable goalscorer, only a once-in-a-blue-moon kind of guy); and I wouldn't want to take a chance on having Munoz or Henderson for a pair of games they're very likely to lose. (Indeed, I can see them not winning another game this season.)  Only Eberechi Eze might be worth having from the Eagles.

I think we might well see a particularly emphatic exposé of the Double Gameweek Delusion this week. Double-fixtures are not automatically better than single-fixtures; they are usually only worth pursuing if at least one of them is a good fixture. (And in this DGW, NONE of them are - except for Arsenal's.)  Even then, you have to bear in mind other factors as well, like the transferred-in players' prospects in the following weeks.

Some people are going crazy for the DGW, using a chip or spending 'hits' to bring in the maximum 12 doublers - even dropping the best of their current squad to do so,... some even dropping Mo Salah! That is INSANITY. Mo Salah, with a game against awful Leicester, is very likely to be the week's highest-scoring player (yes, even without a second game!). And if he isn't, it will probably be Luis Diaz or Diogo Jota; or maybe Mbeumo against Brighton, or Iwobi against Chelsea, or Bowen against Southampton, or Elanga against Spurs, or Evanilson against Palace, or Cunha or Strand Larsen against Manchester United. The doubles this week are nothing to get excited about, and I don't see doubling players dominating the 'Team of the Week' (they're bound to get some representation; but maybe only 4 or 5 spots, not all 11!). You ignore the most promising single-gameweek players at your peril.

Picks of the Week - DGW32

 

Just a quickie this week, to run through the possible Double Gameweek picks....

As I often warn, double gameweeks are not the magical pot of gold so many people suppose they must automatically be - and this next one, GW32, is really a bit shit: two above-average but well below-the-best teams facing pairs of non-straightforward opponents, games whose outcome is hard to predict... but very possibly - likely - not going to go the doublers' way.

People are probably only going for Palace players (apart from Munoz, who's been excellent for a while; and Mateta who has shown some strong goalscoring form since the turn of the year, at least up until his recent injury) because they have another double next week (though that one's arguably even tougher than this week's!). Since their two games this week will be hard to win, and they almost certainly won't be able to keep a clean sheet in either, I'd suggest passing on any of their defence - even Munoz! And if you were going to go for one, I'd favour Dean Henderson, since at least a keeper can pick up some useful 'saves' points, even when his side take a battering. Mateta's sharpness and confidence are likely to be undermined by his sore ear for a while, so I'm not sure there's much value in him either (particularly with budget options like Evanilson and Strand Larsen, and the similarly-priced Marmoush doing so well at the moment). And Ismaila Sarr I have expressed my scepticism about before: good player, but not a great player, and not a regular goalscorer. For me, Eberechi Eze is the only attacking asset - and probably the only player at all - one ought to be taking from Palace for these two double-fixtures.

Newcastle have slightly better fixtures in the double, both at home, where they do tend to be much more formidable; and then a not-too-bad run over the next few weeks - including a strong prospect for a clean sheet against Ipswich in GW34. So, picks from their defence are rather more viable than from Palace's. It would be nice if we could be confident that Trippier was back to his best; but, alas, we can't. A lot of FPL managers are getting over-excited about Tino Livramento having just scored a goal; but history suggests that will be the last time he does that for a year or two! He has been playing superbly of late, but Fabian Schar and Dan Burn carry a much more regular goal-threat, so they would be my suggestions. Nick Pope I would pass on; his form hasn't looked that convincing to me this season - quite a few big saves, yes, but also far more errors than usual.

Alexander Isak is the only other strong pick from the Geordies at the moment; and everyone ought to have him already, because he's been the Striker of the Season. Anthony Gordon might be in contention for some, although it looks like he's still a big injury doubt, for the first game at least; and his form has been a little disappointing over the last few months. The recently excellent Jacob Murphy - again, quite widely owned already (now in over 17% of teams) - is also a tempting option; but, given the fixtures, I'm not sure he's tempting enough to be worth bringing in just for this week, if you don't already have him.

People flock greedily to a Double Gameweek for their 'Assistant Manager' chip as well. Some favour Newcastle and Eddie Howe, because they look the likelier to pick up two wins. But I don't think those wins are by any means guaranteed, and I certainly don't see either of them being big wins. And neither of them can earn the crucial table-bonus extra points.

Palace's Oliver Glasner would be more tempting for me, as the high-risk/high-reward option with two table-bonuses on offer: if he gets a draw against Newcastle, he'll probably do as well or better than Howe over the double; if he can get something against City as well, he'll slaughter him. But even if he does rather less well than Howe this week, he's still the better pick if you have more weeks to run on the chip, because there's also the chance of an elevated return for him next gameweek (with another double, and one table-bonus opportunity); being able to keep the same AM pick for successive gameweeks - not having to burn a transfer to swap them out, maybe at the cost of a 'hit' - is a huge plus.

But I think Everton's David Moyes or Brentford's Thomas Frank have really good chances of getting upset results against recently faltering and injury-hit Forest and Arsenal; with the huge lift of the table-bonus, these two look much more promising 'Assistant Manager' picks for this week.

Picks of the Week (5)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

And darn, I haven't attempted one of these for over a month now! (Although I did slip in a couple of 'pseudo-episodes', on the most promising winter signings, and the likeliest picks for the recent Everton/Liverpool Double Gameweek.)  Oh well, here goes....

First up, we have Arsenal's Spanish midfielder, Mikel Merino. I've always fancied him as a potential 'fix', at least in the short-term, for Arsenal's goalscoring problem, especially if Kai Havertz should get injured (oops!). He's big, strong, likes to get in the opposition box, is an assured finisher - he looks to have all the attributes to do decent service as a centre-forward. And I've been saying this for a while, not just since he demonstrated this potential so emphatically in his match-saving appearance off the bench in last week's game against Leicester. However, I do still have all sorts of misgivings about how this might work out. For one thing, it was only Leicester - currently the worst team in the League (and one of the worst we've ever seen in the League). Also, he's never been a really prolific goalscorer in his career so far; he's had a few seasons where he's come up with 5 or 6 - hardly earth-shattering. But most of all, I fret that his boss, the chronic over-thinker, Snr Arteta, will not be so easily convinced of his possible aptitude for this role as the great mass of the football-watching public are: the other Mikel is a bit of an intellectual snob, I believe - inclined to disdain any commonly-held view, to suspect that an 'obvious' solution cannot possibly be the right one. But Sterling is looking past it; and Trossard, although lively and skillful and an excellent finisher, just doesn't have the physical presence to play a central striker role. Merino looks a ready-made replacement for Havertz; and you must suspect this was the thinking behind acquiring him last summer. The popular - currently more popular, with over 3% ownership, to Merino's still paltry 0.5% - alternative is, of course, young Ethan Nwaneri. But, given that he doesn't turn 18 for another month, and has already broken down with injury once, you must suspect that Arteta will treat him a little cautiously, ration his minutes from time to time. And while he's likely to produce a lot of showy performances, and maybe contribute quite a few assists, I can't see him becoming a primary goalscorer for the team just yet. Ideally, I'd wait a week or three, or a game or three (we have 3 matches in the next 10 days!!), to see if Merino is now going to start regularly, and is going to be deployed as a No. 9 or a 'false 9' - and assess how well he settles into that role. But if you're the gambling type, you might want to roll the dice on him early - to take advantage of a likely rise in his price, if he does score again this weekend.

Next, I proffer for your consideration, Marco Asensio (yep, goalscoring Spanish midfielders are my 'theme of the week'!).  He's experienced (turning 29 tomorrow), has done everything with Real Madrid, and has been a pretty reliable goalscorer throughout his career (particularly in his last two years with the Spanish giants, where he's notched 12 each season). It's a bit early to judge (I haven't been able to watch a full Villa game with him yet), but highlights and match reports suggest that in his three outings for Villa so far, he has already looked much the most promising of their recent signings. That was certainly my impression: every time you saw him on the ball, you felt that he was going to make something happen. There is a lot of positive sentiment towards the club's new British arrival, Marcus Rashford; and he has perhaps made a showier start to his time there, notching an assist in the match against Ipswich last weekend. But my feeling is that Asensio has more class, more consistency, and more versatility - is far more likely to become a regular starter... and, if he does, hopefully, a frequent producer of attacking contributions. But at the moment, he'd be an even more speculative pick than Merino, because I fear all of Villa's winter signings were really brought in as occasional rotation options to ease the burden of Champions League football, rather than likely mainstays of the preferred starting eleven. But we shall see.

And a wild third to throw into the mix: Carlos Alcaraz. Yep, the young Argentinian (only just turned 22) on loan at Everton from Flamengo, is a bit of an unknown quantity, but... he was absolutely oustanding in their win over Palace last week. I don't know if he's necessarily going to be coming up with that many attacking contributions, but I do have a very strong feeling that he's going to play a pivotal role in their ongoing recovery over the final third of the season. So far, his ownership is only down around 100,000 - so, if you like betting on 'penny shares', he could be your man! (I was tempted to go for Beto instead. I've always fancied his potential: he looks a proper centre-forward. And now that he's found his goal touch at last, he's started playing with a swaggering confidence. But there's a lot of competition in the cheap striker space; and I worry that his and Everton's recent form may prove precarious. So, for me, he's still a wait-and-see for now.)

Wot - no Omar Marmoush?  NO!  Like Mikel Arteta, I disdain the obvious.

'Picks of the Week' - the new transfers

This is not one of my usual 'Picks of the Week' posts (since I wouldn't necessarily recommend getting any of these players in for FPL - certainly not before we've seen them play for their new teams.... and possibly not ever), but just a few quick observations on what strike me as the most potentially interesting new acquisitions during the just-closed January transfer window.

I already mentioned a couple of weeks back that I thought the pacey Dutch winger Donyell Malen could be a promising addition for Aston Villa, but... his goalscoring seems to have gone off the boil rather with Dortmund this season (not that he's ever been that prolific). And with Jacob Ramsey, Leon Bailey, and Morgan Rogers having been in such good form so far this season, it's difficult to see how he'll find a regular starting place there.

Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush quickly won a lot of attention among the ranks of FPL managers (with his ownership well over 300k already - which seems likely to soon drive his price up a notch, from its not-very-generous opening point of 7.0). Yes, he's very quick, very versatile, has a lot of skills; it looks like his dead-ball delivery could be a handy asset for City. But he's not been a particularly prolific scorer in his career so far (he had quite a good season with Frankfurt last year, and a very good start to this one - but in his younger years, he'd scarcely found the net at all). And I am somewhat surprised that Pep has introduced him to the starting line-up immediately (a 'sign of desperation', some might say...). But City are really still not looking very good. And since Pep will usually only be using 2 players - at most 3 - from Foden, Savinho, Grealish, Doku, Silva, and Bobb (and perhaps Jason McAtee, and maybe even Rico Lewis too), it's very difficult see him being all that high up the list of priorities once everyone's fit again; and even if he is, he's bound to be at least an occasional victim of the notorious 'Pep Roulette'.

Ben Chilwell is a player I've always liked - both in the real world, and as a Fantasy pick - so I'm glad to see him finally escape from Chelsea, to hopefully get a chance to shine again with Palace. But of course, injuries have been a big problem for him in recent years, and he hasn't really played an extended spell of first-team football in four years or more now - so, it might be a bit doubtful if he'll immediately become a starter. And with Tyrick Mitchell already being a very capable left-back for them, and part of a nicely settled back-five, I fear he might just have been acquired as emergency back-up, destined to rarely get a full run-out there. But maybe, just maybe there is a chance that Oliver Glasner envisages making use of him as an outright winger - or perhaps even a creative central midfielder; in which case, he might get in the starting team quite regularly, and might then just possibly enjoy the opportunity to start returning significant FPL points.

Probably the most impressive - and potentially transformative - eve-of-deadline capture was United's sealing of the deal to bring the powerful Danish attacking left-back Patrick Dorgu in from Lecce. They probably needed a new striker and a new central midfielder even more, but they'll have to make the best of what they could get. And Dorgu is, I think, very likely to quickly become a regular starter in the wingback role, probably on his preferred left side. This should give United much more incisive attacking options down that flank; and it would have the additional benefits of allowing Dalot to be swapped over to the right (where, I think, he looks much more comfortable), and Mazraoui to be permanently moved into the back-three (a switch that is all the more needful now that Lisandro Martinez looks to have torn his ACL).

City fans will be hoping that Nico Gonzalez might catalyse an even bigger shake-up for them. At Porto, he has, I believe, mostly been a more progressive sort of midfielder, more of a box-to-box player; but he has a formidable engine and covers the ground very well - so, there is some reason to hope that he can plug some of that huge defensive hole in the middle of the park that Rodri's absence has created for them. He can't be any worse than Kovacic and Gundogan and Silva in that role, anyway....  But I'm doubtful about how far he can fix City's problems on his own.

I suppose I have to mention Marcus Rashford, as this seems to be the move fans have been getting most excited about online. However, as with Malen, I don't really see how he'll fit into the Villa set-up. He's at his best coming in off the left wing to join in attacks; but they already have Rogers and Ramsey (and potentially Malen too) who can do that for them. So, it's more likely he's just going to be used as occasional relief for Ollie Watkins, now that Jhon Duran has taken the Saudi money. And, given that he's hardly played any football this season (and hasn't played well in a season-and-a-half....), I fear it could take him quite a while to get back to full match-sharpness - which would mean that he might be of limited use in deputising for Watkins immediately, if the apparent hamstring strain he suffered at the weekend is likely to keep him out for a few weeks. Indeed, I suspect that if Watkins is unavailable now, Emery might prefer to go with Rogers as a kind of 'false 9' rather than taking a risk on the notoriously flakey and inconsistent Rashford.

A more intriguing prospect, I think, is goalkeeper Alex Palmer, who's just been lured away from West Bromwich Albion by Ipswich. He's looked the best goalkeeper in the Championship for the past couple of seasons. And given what a liability Ari Muric has become this season, and that alternate Christian Walton looks set to be out for a while with a serious muscle injury, Kieran McKenna must surely be intending to make him the default No. 1 straight away. He hasn't been priced in FPL yet, but if he comes in at 4.0, he'd be a very tempting back-up pick. Even at the more likely 4.5, he might possibly get into the conversation. And I have a suspicion that he could prove to be the difference-maker that helps Ipswich stay up. (Although I think the acquisitions of Enciso, Philogene, and Godfrey could have a positive impact too - and these are certainly an encouraging 'statement of intent' from the Ipswich owners that they're determined to make a good fight of it. I don't get that feeling with Southampton or Leicester. And I'm still a bit undecided about Wolves...)

I feel a definite frisson of excitement about Evan Ferguson's loan move to West Ham as well. His development has been derailed by a string of injuries over the past couple of seasons, but he is one of the best young strikers I've seen emerge in the English game for many, many years: big, strong, quite quick, excellent touch, calm under pressure, full range of finishing - pretty much a complete forward. He's worked under Graham Potter before at Brighton; so, hopefully there's a good personal relationship there that could help him to rebuild confidence (if he's lost any; he hasn't struck me as the type of guy to be much troubled by mental demons). And with Fullkrug perpetually injured and Antonio out for the season, there does seem to be a good chance that he might become a regular starter as the No. 9. However, Potter, as we know, is a compulsive tinkerer, and he has been tempted to try out Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta as 'false 9s' in the absence of any recognised striker being available for him recently. And Jarrod Bowen can play as a central striker too; though he's much better coming in off the wing. Priced at only 5.5 million, I think there's a fair chance that Ferguson might become the top budget forward pick in the latter part of the season, if he starts regularly and can stay fit.

But the big news of this window for me is Tottenham's loan signing of the 19-year-old French forward Mathys Tel. Yes, he's very young, very inexperienced, and hasn't yet established a prolific scoring record... hasn't found the net at all yet this season; however, given that almost all of his appearances for Bayern have been off the bench, his 16 goals over the previous two seasons have come from a fairly small number of minutes - and some of them have been quite breathtaking. The kid is a sensational talent. He can play off the wing or through the middle, so there are a number of ways he could get into the side. However, even with Solanke ruled out for another month or so, Spurs do have quite an abundance of attacking talent at their disposal: Son, Johnson, Richarlison, Kulusevski, Maddison, and young Mikey Moore. So, I fear he might get limited minutes, be used - initially at least - mainly as an impact sub. But I think it's very possible that he might have enough of an impact to graduate before long to a regular start.  [I'm glad to see my mate Adam Clery over at FourFourTwo agrees with me about this lad's prospects.]

So.... not the busiest transfer window, by a long way; but it did - belatedly - throw up some intriguing new FPL possibilities.

The biggest news, though, is surely Arsenal - being 'linked' with some big names, like Zubimendi and Gyokeres (again), and Osimhen and Sesko,..... and just about every decent forward in the Premier League.... and failing to land anyone. Oh dear.

Picks of the Week - for Double Gameweek 24

 

Now that the postponed Merseyside derby has been rearranged for the evening of Wednesday 12th February, and - bizarrely! - that's been attached to Gameweek 24, even though it occurs 10 days after all the other fixtures, instead of Gameweek 25 which it is immediately adjacent to....  it is looking tempting to load up on additional Liverpool/Everton players to take advantage of the fact they'll have two chances to claim points in the same gameweek. Who are the most tempting picks?

Well, obviously everyone has Mo Salah, anyway. Other Liverpool attacking assets are not looking so tempting for this one, as both games are away from home, and against two teams who are usually very strong defensively (Bournemouth have the best home form in the league, and have been starting to look devastating in attack as well in the last few games; and 'upsets' are always on the cards in a derby game). Moreover, there's perpetual doubt about who the favoured starters might be. That has been allayed recently, with Gakpo hitting good goalscoring form, Jota being sidelined with injury again, Chiesa not yet having been fully integrated into the squad and seemingly almost always carrying some sort of injury, and Slot admitting that it's difficult to make effective use of Darwin Nunez when Liverpool find themselves up against a 'low block' most of the time; the preferred trident is, for now, fairly obviously Gakpo-Diaz-Salah. However, this is a bit rough on Luis Diaz, who is much more at home on the left flank than working in the middle, and doesn't often look that much of a goal threat when played as the No. 9. Moreover, both he and Gakpo are very likely to have to share minutes with Nunez and Chiesa, and can expect to be subbed off quite early, even if they start both games. 

Because of his fine recent form (5 goals and 4 assists in the last 7 games), I would consider Cody Gakpo as an additional attacking asset for the double. But you have to consider that Chris Wood, Alexander Isak, and Yoane Wissa also have very promising fixtures this week - so, even with two opportunities to score, Gakpo might not in fact do as well as any of these, and using transfers to replace one of them with Gakpo would be a bit extravagant, if you only fancy him as a short-term hold. (It was announced the next day that, if they reach the Final of the League Cup, Liverpool's GW29 fixture against Villa would be moved forward rather than backward, to Wednesday 19th February. Of course, they have to get past Spurs in the second leg of the semi-final first. And it is uncertain whether the League would attach that midweek make-up fixture to GW25 or GW26. But there is a very good chance that Liverpool will now be doubling in successive weeks, or at least twice very close together, so that will probably tip the balance in favour of bringing in a player like Gakpo.)  

The other Liverpool option I'd consider - a bit more left-field, a bit more 'differential' - is attacking midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai, who has been looking in great form recently; and who, with Curtis Jones currently carrying an injury, is probably a little bit less of a minutes-risk than Gakpo or Diaz. (As above, I probaby wouldn't have fancied him just for these two fairly unpromising GW24 fixtures; but the possibility that he might get a double in GW25 or GW26 makes him a much more attractive punt.)

However, I think that, in what should be quite tight, cagey games, Liverpool defensive assets are to be preferred. Trent Alexander-Arnold has been looking more threatening in attacking situations recently, and obviously has an edge as a prospect for additional contributions. However, he hasn't been delivering these nearly as frequently or consistently this year, and I really don't think he earns his extra transfer cost. I prefer Ibrahima Konate over either Virgil Van Dijk or Alexander-Arnold, because he'll probably return the same points for considerably less money; although there is a slight worry that he is reportedly still suffering occasionally with a long-standing problem in one of his knees, and may sometimes need a rest when the fixtures stack up close together. I think I'd be willing to take the chance on him here, though, as the weekend game preceding the second fixture is only an FA Cup tie against Plymouth, for which many regular first-teamers can probably be safely omitted.  Robertson and Tsimikas have been sharing minutes a bit recently, so both are a risky choice for the double; however, they - or perhaps even Trent's understudy, Conor Bradley - might be worth a punt if you're chasing that elusive 'differential' advantage.

The top pick for me, though, would be goalkeeper Alisson - who has a pretty good chance of two clean sheets... or at least of making lots of saves, if these opponents do prove more dangerous than Liverpool fans hope/expect.... which will give him an edge over the defenders. Moreover, if you can afford a premium keeper, I'd say Alisson is the best choice for the rest of the season. Liverpool's defensive record has been outstanding; and he's very likely to have at least two more double gameweeks, by way of reaching the League Cup Final and the FA Semi-Final.

Similarly with Everton, they have had a mostly very solid defence this season, but have struggled badly for goals themselves, so I would favour defensive assets. Vitalii Mykolenko would be the preferred option from the back-four, I think, because of his potential to offer an occasional attacking contribution as well; though the central pair, perhaps especially young Jarrad Branthwaite, would also be strong possibilities. Ashley Young had been having an outstanding season, but is, alas, too old to be really reliable, and appears to have lost the start now; and the selection at right-back is probably too uncertain to punt on - I'd stick with Mykolenko.

As with Alisson, Jordan Pickford is probably the most inviting pick from the whole team - because he'll almost certainly pick up a lot of 'saves' points if they do get a bit battered in one or both games, but surely also has a good chance of at least one clean sheet. And with Everton starting to show signs of improvement under David Moyes, he's probably a decent keeper pick for the rest of the season. [There's a lot to be said, actually, for getting both Alisson and Pickford - if you have the transfers to spare - and stacking your bench with Everton players for a Bench Boost this week.]

Some people were getting excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin as an attacking prospect; but his goalscoring form has always been too erratic to be persuade me of his worth. And anyway, it looks as though he's now going to be out for several weeks with a hamstring injury. I much prefer Iliman Ndiaye or Beto as forward options for that club anyway, and they'll have more responsibility for goals placed on them in Calvert-Lewin's absence. Ndiaye has been consistently impressive this season - very pacey, very skillful, a cool finisher - but has usually been played out wide, and a bit too deep to have much impact around the box. I am hopeful that he might be deployed further forward now; I think, in fact, he could probably fulfil the No. 9 role - although Beto will probably be preferred for that. However, it does look as if he's taking over from Calvert-Lewin on penalties - so, that's a major point in his favour.

I could have been excited about the possibilities of Dwight McNeil, if he'd been able to play in these two fixtures; but with him needing surgery on his troublesome knee, he's now likely to remain out for quite some time. The only other midfield option who might be worth a thought is Abdelaye Doucoure, who's a very dependable central midfielder - and someone who does come up with the occasional goal. And against currently dismal Leicester, he might get an opportunity to do that.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Picks of the Week (4)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves''. (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

And in fact I have had NOTHING for a full month now (December is a terrible time to be making predictions - with so many rotations amid the crowded schedule, mounting fatigue, and a landslide of injuries and totting-up suspensions). So,  I'm feeling under a bit of pressure to come up with something again now. But I will preface these thoughts with a bigger caveat than usual: these are are very much players I think I are worth keeping an eye on - but not at all ones you should be buying immediately (well, not the second two, anyway).

So, first up we have Amad Diallo - who was nearly-but-not-quite a 'pick'  in this series four weeks ago. I'm probably a bit 'late to the party' on this one, since the young United star has certainly been an intriguing property in FPL for several weeks, and his ownership is now well over 15%. But so fickle are the FPL 'sheep' that there was a massive sell-off under way at the end of December, after he'd 'blanked' a mere two or three times (to be fair, the disillusion might have been more reasonably based on the general direness of Manchester United's performances in those matches, rather than those of Diallo himself, who, I thought, was still putting up a good show... in impossible circumstances). And despite a 9-pt haul against Liverpool the other week, and another impressive showing as a sub in the FA Cup victory over Arsenal on Sunday, his ownership seems to be continuing to dwindle (ever so slightly), rather than grow; the tide of 'public opinion' has, inexplicably, turned against the young man. Now, I still have doubts about how decisively Manchester United have turned the corner under Amorim's leadership, how robust their recent impressive renaissance may prove to be. But there's no questioning that something remarkable has happened at the club in the past couple of weeks: in the last two games, against 'better' opposition, they showed more passion, more cohesion, and were tactically smarter than their opponents - and you can feel the confidence in the team swelling after these two excellent results. They have Southampton up next. And their difficult fixture-run over the holiday period is now behind them; it's all looking much less challenging for them for a good way ahead now. I brought Diallo in a few weeks ago; I didn't lose patience with him over a short run of blanks (when he was still playing well); and I'm seriously thinking of making him captain this gameweek!

The near-simultaneous long-term injuries to Bournemouth's two central attackers last week could lead to a much more regular, important, and dangerous role for Dango Ouattara. I confess, this one is pretty speculative: there's a chance that the club will try to bring in a new striker during the current transfer window. And Antoine Semenyo is another prime candidate to take over at centre-forward, if they don't. But I think Ouattara's superior pace and muscularity probably make him a better fit for this position than Semenyo; and he did just produce a very impressive try-out for the role in this weekend's FA Cup tie. He only costs 5 million, and he's classified as a midfielder. However, I proffer this thought more as a wait-and-see, since Bournemouth have a rough run of fixtures until the middle of February. Moreover, there's a lot of competition for attention in the budget midfielder category, with the likes of Kevin Schade, Anthony Elanga, Harry Wilson, Omari Hutchinson, and Lucas Bergvall making some waves in recent weeks - as well as the aforementioned Amad Diallo, of course; and yes, even Morgan Rogers! [I have been fairly consistently 'sceptical' of Rogers's claims as the budget midfield pick since the very start of the season; but I have also always maintained that this is not because of any lack of admiration for his talent. I've simply felt that Villa's League form this season has been too fragile, and that the way he's mostly been played is not conducive to him getting regular attacking contributions. If you look at his heat-maps, he's often getting on the ball deep in his own half, and the great majority of his touches seem to be usually in and around the centre circle; he's very good at carrying the ball forward, but he's usually been releasing it to an attacking teammate long before he gets all that near the opposing penalty area. However, I think the gradual return of Boubacar Kamara to the Villa set-up since the tail-end of November may have been transformative: they now look much more secure in midfield, much less vulnerable to counter-attack, and that seems to be giving the other midfielders much more confidence to press further forward, without the constant fear of immediately having to sprint back to try to cover if there's a change in possession. And Rogers, in particular, seems to have been blossoming in this new environment, with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last four games (and another one in the Cup on Friday evening!); what's more, these have looked to me like replicable goals, like the sort of thing we could easily imagine him repeating on a frequent basis if he continues to play like this - whereas the few he'd got earlier in the season all looked like out-of-the-blue one-offs, untypical of his general play. Villa as a whole still look pretty flakey to me; but I think Rogers is - finally - worth consideration for that fifth midfielder slot.]

And finally.... the most speculative suggestion of the lot: Liverpool's 21-year-old right-back, Conor Bradley. Yes, at the moment, Trent looks as though he'll be staying till the end of the season, and keeping the start. But there must be a very good chance that Trent could be leaving in the next couple of weeks; and if negotiations with Real (or some other surprise suitor?) start tending that way, he might be dropped at any moment. Perhaps Arne Slot's giving him the armband against Accrington Stanley in the Cup on Saturday was less a 'vote of confidence' after his stinker of a performance against United in the League the previous week and more of a sentimental farewell....? If that happens, young Mr Bradley could be about to become the hottest defensive property in FPL. He was rather unkindly priced at 5.0 million at the start of the season (ridiculous for a player who can't have been expected to get many starts; but I suppose it says something about how well he played when he did stand in for Trent a handful of times last season), but he has fallen now to just 4.7. And I really don't think there's any better defensive prospect in FPL at that price at the moment. I am rather hoping that Trent is packing his bags for Spain already....

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip