Picks of the Week - DGW33

Which players should we covet specifically for this week's Double Gameweek??

Well, this should even quicker than last week's review of the options....

NONE.

Or at least, none that you don't have already.

If there are a lot of doubling teams to choose from, you can make sure you only get the best players from the best teams, with the best fixtures. And you can try to minimise the number of players you have who are pitched against each other in the same match.

With a smaller Double Gameweek like this, you can't do that. You only have 4 teams to choose from - and, inevitably, they're all playing each other. And the other team they're playing is a daunting opponent, for three of the four. Only Arsenal actually have a decent double-fixture. The others are best avoided, at least for defensive assets, as it's difficult to have much confidence that they'll win either game; certainly, clean sheets don't look very likely for anyone.

Moreover, apart from Arsenal, the doubling teams aren't all that good - only mid-table sides this year: good mid-table sides, yes, but they've been so inconsistent, and have such glaring defensive frailties, that they're left scrapping with the likes of Fulham and Brighton for the chance of a place in the lesser European competitions next year, rather than challenging hard for Champions League qualification: Palace, Villa, and City are just not teams to be all that enthused about at the moment.

Loading up on doubling players should be dismissed as undesirable/impossible if you haven't kept your Free Hit or Wildcard to get yourself out of trouble in the following week when those players will all miss a fixture. And if you use the Free Hit to get around the Blank Gameweek, you're then left with all those players for the rest of the season. Do you really want 10 or 12 players from those teams, with their remaining runs of fixtures?? Do you even want 7 or 8?? I would suggest NOT. So, you won't just be burning transfers to bring players in for this week, you'll probably be burning more to get rid of most of them again as soon as possible. It is very, very unlikely that any doubling player will give you enough of a points lift to justify using two transfers on them in a short space of time.

I would rather be considering moving out some players from the doubling teams, as I really don't see much value from Palace or Villa players with their fixtures.

Arsenal have a good chance of picking up one clean sheet, possibly two - so it could be tempting to load up on their defence and/or get Raya in goal. But as I just noted above, you might not want to be overstocked with Arsenal defensive assets beyond this week, as their next three opponents - Bournemouth, Liverpool, and Newcastle - are quite challenging (and they'll probably be somewhat distracted by the forthcoming Champions League showdown with PSG). Most people have William Saliba already, since there was never that much to choose between him and Gabriel as the most reliable defensive pick for FPL this year, and for those who hadn't picked him already, he was the natural replacement for Gabriel when he tore his hamstring at the start of this month. There's a bit too much uncertainty about rotation in the rest of the Arsenal defence, though Jurrien Timber or perhaps Ben White could be worth gambling on. David Raya, though, I would be wary of, because of the following fixtures. As for attacking assets - well, they don't have a striker, none of their attacking midfielders have established regular goalscoring form, and there's too much likelihood of rotation in those positions. Some people are getting over-optimisitic about Bukayo Saka's prospects now that he's back from injury - but I think he's likely to be wrapped in cotton wool and saved for the PSG games. The in-form (and rarely rested) Declan Rice would be my pick, if you are going for another Arsenal man. Trossard, Merino, or Martinelli could always come up with something; but it's so difficult to guess if they'll start in both games.

Most people already have Omar Marmoush (well, over 31% own him), who's been in excellent form lately - although arguably not a top three striker pick, without the benefit of an additional fixture. Many have Josko Gvardiol as well (and indeed, have held on to him all season): his goalscoring is phenomenal, but his opportunities to register attacking contributions are severely limited when he plays in central defence; and City still look like they're going to be leaking a lot of goals. All the attacking midfield options are far too at risk of unpredictable rotations. Kevin DeBruyne is the only one who'd tempt me, after his sensational performance against Palace last week; but he is turning 34 in a couple of months, and definitely starting to show his age - I fear it's very doubtful that he'll play a full 90 minutes twice within a few days.

Many people have Morgan Rogers (or Asensio or Rashford) already. Fine to keep them, and keep your fingers crossed, for this week; but it's difficult to imagine them getting much against Newcastle or City. And Villa, alas, have usually been dreadful immediately after one of their big European games; that's likely to be even worse this time, with them being emotionally depleted as well by the narrow loss to PSG. I certainly wouldn't touch any Villa defensive assets with a bargepole for these two games. And Ollie Watkins isn't worth getting in just for this week.

Palace, I fear, may be badly demoralised by the two heavy spankings they've just suffered; these defeats might signal a collapse in form. Part of the problem might be that they just don't have a deep enough squad at the moment to cope with playing twice in a week - and they're now looking at having had to play four times wihin 10 or 11 days. Mateta looks to be out of form, perhaps inhibited by his painful ear injury. Sarr has been predictably disappointing (just not a reliable goalscorer, only a once-in-a-blue-moon kind of guy); and I wouldn't want to take a chance on having Munoz or Henderson for a pair of games they're very likely to lose. (Indeed, I can see them not winning another game this season.)  Only Eberechi Eze might be worth having from the Eagles.

I think we might well see a particularly emphatic exposé of the Double Gameweek Delusion this week. Double-fixtures are not automatically better than single-fixtures; they are usually only worth pursuing if at least one of them is a good fixture. (And in this DGW, NONE of them are - except for Arsenal's.)  Even then, you have to bear in mind other factors as well, like the transferred-in players' prospects in the following weeks.

Some people are going crazy for the DGW, using a chip or spending 'hits' to bring in the maximum 12 doublers - even dropping the best of their current squad to do so,... some even dropping Mo Salah! That is INSANITY. Mo Salah, with a game against awful Leicester, is very likely to be the week's highest-scoring player (yes, even without a second game!). And if he isn't, it will probably be Luis Diaz or Diogo Jota; or maybe Mbeumo against Brighton, or Iwobi against Chelsea, or Bowen against Southampton, or Elanga against Spurs, or Evanilson against Palace, or Cunha or Strand Larsen against Manchester United. The doubles this week are nothing to get excited about, and I don't see doubling players dominating the 'Team of the Week' (they're bound to get some representation; but maybe only 4 or 5 spots, not all 11!). You ignore the most promising single-gameweek players at your peril.

Picks of the Week - DGW32

 

Just a quickie this week, to run through the possible Double Gameweek picks....

As I often warn, double gameweeks are not the magical pot of gold so many people suppose they must automatically be - and this next one, GW32, is really a bit shit: two above-average but well below-the-best teams facing pairs of non-straightforward opponents, games whose outcome is hard to predict... but very possibly - likely - not going to go the doublers' way.

People are probably only going for Palace players (apart from Munoz, who's been excellent for a while; and Mateta who has shown some strong goalscoring form since the turn of the year, at least up until his recent injury) because they have another double next week (though that one's arguably even tougher than this week's!). Since their two games this week will be hard to win, and they almost certainly won't be able to keep a clean sheet in either, I'd suggest passing on any of their defence - even Munoz! And if you were going to go for one, I'd favour Dean Henderson, since at least a keeper can pick up some useful 'saves' points, even when his side take a battering. Mateta's sharpness and confidence are likely to be undermined by his sore ear for a while, so I'm not sure there's much value in him either (particularly with budget options like Evanilson and Strand Larsen, and the similarly-priced Marmoush doing so well at the moment). And Ismaila Sarr I have expressed my scepticism about before: good player, but not a great player, and not a regular goalscorer. For me, Eberechi Eze is the only attacking asset - and probably the only player at all - one ought to be taking from Palace for these two double-fixtures.

Newcastle have slightly better fixtures in the double, both at home, where they do tend to be much more formidable; and then a not-too-bad run over the next few weeks - including a strong prospect for a clean sheet against Ipswich in GW34. So, picks from their defence are rather more viable than from Palace's. It would be nice if we could be confident that Trippier was back to his best; but, alas, we can't. A lot of FPL managers are getting over-excited about Tino Livramento having just scored a goal; but history suggests that will be the last time he does that for a year or two! He has been playing superbly of late, but Fabian Schar and Dan Burn carry a much more regular goal-threat, so they would be my suggestions. Nick Pope I would pass on; his form hasn't looked that convincing to me this season - quite a few big saves, yes, but also far more errors than usual.

Alexander Isak is the only other strong pick from the Geordies at the moment; and everyone ought to have him already, because he's been the Striker of the Season. Anthony Gordon might be in contention for some, although it looks like he's still a big injury doubt, for the first game at least; and his form has been a little disappointing over the last few months. The recently excellent Jacob Murphy - again, quite widely owned already (now in over 17% of teams) - is also a tempting option; but, given the fixtures, I'm not sure he's tempting enough to be worth bringing in just for this week, if you don't already have him.

People flock greedily to a Double Gameweek for their 'Assistant Manager' chip as well. Some favour Newcastle and Eddie Howe, because they look the likelier to pick up two wins. But I don't think those wins are by any means guaranteed, and I certainly don't see either of them being big wins. And neither of them can earn the crucial table-bonus extra points.

Palace's Oliver Glasner would be more tempting for me, as the high-risk/high-reward option with two table-bonuses on offer: if he gets a draw against Newcastle, he'll probably do as well or better than Howe over the double; if he can get something against City as well, he'll slaughter him. But even if he does rather less well than Howe this week, he's still the better pick if you have more weeks to run on the chip, because there's also the chance of an elevated return for him next gameweek (with another double, and one table-bonus opportunity); being able to keep the same AM pick for successive gameweeks - not having to burn a transfer to swap them out, maybe at the cost of a 'hit' - is a huge plus.

But I think Everton's David Moyes or Brentford's Thomas Frank have really good chances of getting upset results against recently faltering and injury-hit Forest and Arsenal; with the huge lift of the table-bonus, these two look much more promising 'Assistant Manager' picks for this week.

Picks of the Week (5)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

And darn, I haven't attempted one of these for over a month now! (Although I did slip in a couple of 'pseudo-episodes', on the most promising winter signings, and the likeliest picks for the recent Everton/Liverpool Double Gameweek.)  Oh well, here goes....

First up, we have Arsenal's Spanish midfielder, Mikel Merino. I've always fancied him as a potential 'fix', at least in the short-term, for Arsenal's goalscoring problem, especially if Kai Havertz should get injured (oops!). He's big, strong, likes to get in the opposition box, is an assured finisher - he looks to have all the attributes to do decent service as a centre-forward. And I've been saying this for a while, not just since he demonstrated this potential so emphatically in his match-saving appearance off the bench in last week's game against Leicester. However, I do still have all sorts of misgivings about how this might work out. For one thing, it was only Leicester - currently the worst team in the League (and one of the worst we've ever seen in the League). Also, he's never been a really prolific goalscorer in his career so far; he's had a few seasons where he's come up with 5 or 6 - hardly earth-shattering. But most of all, I fret that his boss, the chronic over-thinker, Snr Arteta, will not be so easily convinced of his possible aptitude for this role as the great mass of the football-watching public are: the other Mikel is a bit of an intellectual snob, I believe - inclined to disdain any commonly-held view, to suspect that an 'obvious' solution cannot possibly be the right one. But Sterling is looking past it; and Trossard, although lively and skillful and an excellent finisher, just doesn't have the physical presence to play a central striker role. Merino looks a ready-made replacement for Havertz; and you must suspect this was the thinking behind acquiring him last summer. The popular - currently more popular, with over 3% ownership, to Merino's still paltry 0.5% - alternative is, of course, young Ethan Nwaneri. But, given that he doesn't turn 18 for another month, and has already broken down with injury once, you must suspect that Arteta will treat him a little cautiously, ration his minutes from time to time. And while he's likely to produce a lot of showy performances, and maybe contribute quite a few assists, I can't see him becoming a primary goalscorer for the team just yet. Ideally, I'd wait a week or three, or a game or three (we have 3 matches in the next 10 days!!), to see if Merino is now going to start regularly, and is going to be deployed as a No. 9 or a 'false 9' - and assess how well he settles into that role. But if you're the gambling type, you might want to roll the dice on him early - to take advantage of a likely rise in his price, if he does score again this weekend.

Next, I proffer for your consideration, Marco Asensio (yep, goalscoring Spanish midfielders are my 'theme of the week'!).  He's experienced (turning 29 tomorrow), has done everything with Real Madrid, and has been a pretty reliable goalscorer throughout his career (particularly in his last two years with the Spanish giants, where he's notched 12 each season). It's a bit early to judge (I haven't been able to watch a full Villa game with him yet), but highlights and match reports suggest that in his three outings for Villa so far, he has already looked much the most promising of their recent signings. That was certainly my impression: every time you saw him on the ball, you felt that he was going to make something happen. There is a lot of positive sentiment towards the club's new British arrival, Marcus Rashford; and he has perhaps made a showier start to his time there, notching an assist in the match against Ipswich last weekend. But my feeling is that Asensio has more class, more consistency, and more versatility - is far more likely to become a regular starter... and, if he does, hopefully, a frequent producer of attacking contributions. But at the moment, he'd be an even more speculative pick than Merino, because I fear all of Villa's winter signings were really brought in as occasional rotation options to ease the burden of Champions League football, rather than likely mainstays of the preferred starting eleven. But we shall see.

And a wild third to throw into the mix: Carlos Alcaraz. Yep, the young Argentinian (only just turned 22) on loan at Everton from Flamengo, is a bit of an unknown quantity, but... he was absolutely oustanding in their win over Palace last week. I don't know if he's necessarily going to be coming up with that many attacking contributions, but I do have a very strong feeling that he's going to play a pivotal role in their ongoing recovery over the final third of the season. So far, his ownership is only down around 100,000 - so, if you like betting on 'penny shares', he could be your man! (I was tempted to go for Beto instead. I've always fancied his potential: he looks a proper centre-forward. And now that he's found his goal touch at last, he's started playing with a swaggering confidence. But there's a lot of competition in the cheap striker space; and I worry that his and Everton's recent form may prove precarious. So, for me, he's still a wait-and-see for now.)

Wot - no Omar Marmoush?  NO!  Like Mikel Arteta, I disdain the obvious.

'Picks of the Week' - the new transfers

This is not one of my usual 'Picks of the Week' posts (since I wouldn't necessarily recommend getting any of these players in for FPL - certainly not before we've seen them play for their new teams.... and possibly not ever), but just a few quick observations on what strike me as the most potentially interesting new acquisitions during the just-closed January transfer window.

I already mentioned a couple of weeks back that I thought the pacey Dutch winger Donyell Malen could be a promising addition for Aston Villa, but... his goalscoring seems to have gone off the boil rather with Dortmund this season (not that he's ever been that prolific). And with Jacob Ramsey, Leon Bailey, and Morgan Rogers having been in such good form so far this season, it's difficult to see how he'll find a regular starting place there.

Egyptian forward Omar Marmoush quickly won a lot of attention among the ranks of FPL managers (with his ownership well over 300k already - which seems likely to soon drive his price up a notch, from its not-very-generous opening point of 7.0). Yes, he's very quick, very versatile, has a lot of skills; it looks like his dead-ball delivery could be a handy asset for City. But he's not been a particularly prolific scorer in his career so far (he had quite a good season with Frankfurt last year, and a very good start to this one - but in his younger years, he'd scarcely found the net at all). And I am somewhat surprised that Pep has introduced him to the starting line-up immediately (a 'sign of desperation', some might say...). But City are really still not looking very good. And since Pep will usually only be using 2 players - at most 3 - from Foden, Savinho, Grealish, Doku, Silva, and Bobb (and perhaps Jason McAtee, and maybe even Rico Lewis too), it's very difficult see him being all that high up the list of priorities once everyone's fit again; and even if he is, he's bound to be at least an occasional victim of the notorious 'Pep Roulette'.

Ben Chilwell is a player I've always liked - both in the real world, and as a Fantasy pick - so I'm glad to see him finally escape from Chelsea, to hopefully get a chance to shine again with Palace. But of course, injuries have been a big problem for him in recent years, and he hasn't really played an extended spell of first-team football in four years or more now - so, it might be a bit doubtful if he'll immediately become a starter. And with Tyrick Mitchell already being a very capable left-back for them, and part of a nicely settled back-five, I fear he might just have been acquired as emergency back-up, destined to rarely get a full run-out there. But maybe, just maybe there is a chance that Oliver Glasner envisages making use of him as an outright winger - or perhaps even a creative central midfielder; in which case, he might get in the starting team quite regularly, and might then just possibly enjoy the opportunity to start returning significant FPL points.

Probably the most impressive - and potentially transformative - eve-of-deadline capture was United's sealing of the deal to bring the powerful Danish attacking left-back Patrick Dorgu in from Lecce. They probably needed a new striker and a new central midfielder even more, but they'll have to make the best of what they could get. And Dorgu is, I think, very likely to quickly become a regular starter in the wingback role, probably on his preferred left side. This should give United much more incisive attacking options down that flank; and it would have the additional benefits of allowing Dalot to be swapped over to the right (where, I think, he looks much more comfortable), and Mazraoui to be permanently moved into the back-three (a switch that is all the more needful now that Lisandro Martinez looks to have torn his ACL).

City fans will be hoping that Nico Gonzalez might catalyse an even bigger shake-up for them. At Porto, he has, I believe, mostly been a more progressive sort of midfielder, more of a box-to-box player; but he has a formidable engine and covers the ground very well - so, there is some reason to hope that he can plug some of that huge defensive hole in the middle of the park that Rodri's absence has created for them. He can't be any worse than Kovacic and Gundogan and Silva in that role, anyway....  But I'm doubtful about how far he can fix City's problems on his own.

I suppose I have to mention Marcus Rashford, as this seems to be the move fans have been getting most excited about online. However, as with Malen, I don't really see how he'll fit into the Villa set-up. He's at his best coming in off the left wing to join in attacks; but they already have Rogers and Ramsey (and potentially Malen too) who can do that for them. So, it's more likely he's just going to be used as occasional relief for Ollie Watkins, now that Jhon Duran has taken the Saudi money. And, given that he's hardly played any football this season (and hasn't played well in a season-and-a-half....), I fear it could take him quite a while to get back to full match-sharpness - which would mean that he might be of limited use in deputising for Watkins immediately, if the apparent hamstring strain he suffered at the weekend is likely to keep him out for a few weeks. Indeed, I suspect that if Watkins is unavailable now, Emery might prefer to go with Rogers as a kind of 'false 9' rather than taking a risk on the notoriously flakey and inconsistent Rashford.

A more intriguing prospect, I think, is goalkeeper Alex Palmer, who's just been lured away from West Bromwich Albion by Ipswich. He's looked the best goalkeeper in the Championship for the past couple of seasons. And given what a liability Ari Muric has become this season, and that alternate Christian Walton looks set to be out for a while with a serious muscle injury, Kieran McKenna must surely be intending to make him the default No. 1 straight away. He hasn't been priced in FPL yet, but if he comes in at 4.0, he'd be a very tempting back-up pick. Even at the more likely 4.5, he might possibly get into the conversation. And I have a suspicion that he could prove to be the difference-maker that helps Ipswich stay up. (Although I think the acquisitions of Enciso, Philogene, and Godfrey could have a positive impact too - and these are certainly an encouraging 'statement of intent' from the Ipswich owners that they're determined to make a good fight of it. I don't get that feeling with Southampton or Leicester. And I'm still a bit undecided about Wolves...)

I feel a definite frisson of excitement about Evan Ferguson's loan move to West Ham as well. His development has been derailed by a string of injuries over the past couple of seasons, but he is one of the best young strikers I've seen emerge in the English game for many, many years: big, strong, quite quick, excellent touch, calm under pressure, full range of finishing - pretty much a complete forward. He's worked under Graham Potter before at Brighton; so, hopefully there's a good personal relationship there that could help him to rebuild confidence (if he's lost any; he hasn't struck me as the type of guy to be much troubled by mental demons). And with Fullkrug perpetually injured and Antonio out for the season, there does seem to be a good chance that he might become a regular starter as the No. 9. However, Potter, as we know, is a compulsive tinkerer, and he has been tempted to try out Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta as 'false 9s' in the absence of any recognised striker being available for him recently. And Jarrod Bowen can play as a central striker too; though he's much better coming in off the wing. Priced at only 5.5 million, I think there's a fair chance that Ferguson might become the top budget forward pick in the latter part of the season, if he starts regularly and can stay fit.

But the big news of this window for me is Tottenham's loan signing of the 19-year-old French forward Mathys Tel. Yes, he's very young, very inexperienced, and hasn't yet established a prolific scoring record... hasn't found the net at all yet this season; however, given that almost all of his appearances for Bayern have been off the bench, his 16 goals over the previous two seasons have come from a fairly small number of minutes - and some of them have been quite breathtaking. The kid is a sensational talent. He can play off the wing or through the middle, so there are a number of ways he could get into the side. However, even with Solanke ruled out for another month or so, Spurs do have quite an abundance of attacking talent at their disposal: Son, Johnson, Richarlison, Kulusevski, Maddison, and young Mikey Moore. So, I fear he might get limited minutes, be used - initially at least - mainly as an impact sub. But I think it's very possible that he might have enough of an impact to graduate before long to a regular start.  [I'm glad to see my mate Adam Clery over at FourFourTwo agrees with me about this lad's prospects.]

So.... not the busiest transfer window, by a long way; but it did - belatedly - throw up some intriguing new FPL possibilities.

The biggest news, though, is surely Arsenal - being 'linked' with some big names, like Zubimendi and Gyokeres (again), and Osimhen and Sesko,..... and just about every decent forward in the Premier League.... and failing to land anyone. Oh dear.

Picks of the Week - for Double Gameweek 24

 

Now that the postponed Merseyside derby has been rearranged for the evening of Wednesday 12th February, and - bizarrely! - that's been attached to Gameweek 24, even though it occurs 10 days after all the other fixtures, instead of Gameweek 25 which it is immediately adjacent to....  it is looking tempting to load up on additional Liverpool/Everton players to take advantage of the fact they'll have two chances to claim points in the same gameweek. Who are the most tempting picks?

Well, obviously everyone has Mo Salah, anyway. Other Liverpool attacking assets are not looking so tempting for this one, as both games are away from home, and against two teams who are usually very strong defensively (Bournemouth have the best home form in the league, and have been starting to look devastating in attack as well in the last few games; and 'upsets' are always on the cards in a derby game). Moreover, there's perpetual doubt about who the favoured starters might be. That has been allayed recently, with Gakpo hitting good goalscoring form, Jota being sidelined with injury again, Chiesa not yet having been fully integrated into the squad and seemingly almost always carrying some sort of injury, and Slot admitting that it's difficult to make effective use of Darwin Nunez when Liverpool find themselves up against a 'low block' most of the time; the preferred trident is, for now, fairly obviously Gakpo-Diaz-Salah. However, this is a bit rough on Luis Diaz, who is much more at home on the left flank than working in the middle, and doesn't often look that much of a goal threat when played as the No. 9. Moreover, both he and Gakpo are very likely to have to share minutes with Nunez and Chiesa, and can expect to be subbed off quite early, even if they start both games. 

Because of his fine recent form (5 goals and 4 assists in the last 7 games), I would consider Cody Gakpo as an additional attacking asset for the double. But you have to consider that Chris Wood, Alexander Isak, and Yoane Wissa also have very promising fixtures this week - so, even with two opportunities to score, Gakpo might not in fact do as well as any of these, and using transfers to replace one of them with Gakpo would be a bit extravagant, if you only fancy him as a short-term hold. (It was announced the next day that, if they reach the Final of the League Cup, Liverpool's GW29 fixture against Villa would be moved forward rather than backward, to Wednesday 19th February. Of course, they have to get past Spurs in the second leg of the semi-final first. And it is uncertain whether the League would attach that midweek make-up fixture to GW25 or GW26. But there is a very good chance that Liverpool will now be doubling in successive weeks, or at least twice very close together, so that will probably tip the balance in favour of bringing in a player like Gakpo.)  

The other Liverpool option I'd consider - a bit more left-field, a bit more 'differential' - is attacking midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai, who has been looking in great form recently; and who, with Curtis Jones currently carrying an injury, is probably a little bit less of a minutes-risk than Gakpo or Diaz. (As above, I probaby wouldn't have fancied him just for these two fairly unpromising GW24 fixtures; but the possibility that he might get a double in GW25 or GW26 makes him a much more attractive punt.)

However, I think that, in what should be quite tight, cagey games, Liverpool defensive assets are to be preferred. Trent Alexander-Arnold has been looking more threatening in attacking situations recently, and obviously has an edge as a prospect for additional contributions. However, he hasn't been delivering these nearly as frequently or consistently this year, and I really don't think he earns his extra transfer cost. I prefer Ibrahima Konate over either Virgil Van Dijk or Alexander-Arnold, because he'll probably return the same points for considerably less money; although there is a slight worry that he is reportedly still suffering occasionally with a long-standing problem in one of his knees, and may sometimes need a rest when the fixtures stack up close together. I think I'd be willing to take the chance on him here, though, as the weekend game preceding the second fixture is only an FA Cup tie against Plymouth, for which many regular first-teamers can probably be safely omitted.  Robertson and Tsimikas have been sharing minutes a bit recently, so both are a risky choice for the double; however, they - or perhaps even Trent's understudy, Conor Bradley - might be worth a punt if you're chasing that elusive 'differential' advantage.

The top pick for me, though, would be goalkeeper Alisson - who has a pretty good chance of two clean sheets... or at least of making lots of saves, if these opponents do prove more dangerous than Liverpool fans hope/expect.... which will give him an edge over the defenders. Moreover, if you can afford a premium keeper, I'd say Alisson is the best choice for the rest of the season. Liverpool's defensive record has been outstanding; and he's very likely to have at least two more double gameweeks, by way of reaching the League Cup Final and the FA Semi-Final.

Similarly with Everton, they have had a mostly very solid defence this season, but have struggled badly for goals themselves, so I would favour defensive assets. Vitalii Mykolenko would be the preferred option from the back-four, I think, because of his potential to offer an occasional attacking contribution as well; though the central pair, perhaps especially young Jarrad Branthwaite, would also be strong possibilities. Ashley Young had been having an outstanding season, but is, alas, too old to be really reliable, and appears to have lost the start now; and the selection at right-back is probably too uncertain to punt on - I'd stick with Mykolenko.

As with Alisson, Jordan Pickford is probably the most inviting pick from the whole team - because he'll almost certainly pick up a lot of 'saves' points if they do get a bit battered in one or both games, but surely also has a good chance of at least one clean sheet. And with Everton starting to show signs of improvement under David Moyes, he's probably a decent keeper pick for the rest of the season. [There's a lot to be said, actually, for getting both Alisson and Pickford - if you have the transfers to spare - and stacking your bench with Everton players for a Bench Boost this week.]

Some people were getting excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin as an attacking prospect; but his goalscoring form has always been too erratic to be persuade me of his worth. And anyway, it looks as though he's now going to be out for several weeks with a hamstring injury. I much prefer Iliman Ndiaye or Beto as forward options for that club anyway, and they'll have more responsibility for goals placed on them in Calvert-Lewin's absence. Ndiaye has been consistently impressive this season - very pacey, very skillful, a cool finisher - but has usually been played out wide, and a bit too deep to have much impact around the box. I am hopeful that he might be deployed further forward now; I think, in fact, he could probably fulfil the No. 9 role - although Beto will probably be preferred for that. However, it does look as if he's taking over from Calvert-Lewin on penalties - so, that's a major point in his favour.

I could have been excited about the possibilities of Dwight McNeil, if he'd been able to play in these two fixtures; but with him needing surgery on his troublesome knee, he's now likely to remain out for quite some time. The only other midfield option who might be worth a thought is Abdelaye Doucoure, who's a very dependable central midfielder - and someone who does come up with the occasional goal. And against currently dismal Leicester, he might get an opportunity to do that.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Picks of the Week (4)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves''. (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

And in fact I have had NOTHING for a full month now (December is a terrible time to be making predictions - with so many rotations amid the crowded schedule, mounting fatigue, and a landslide of injuries and totting-up suspensions). So,  I'm feeling under a bit of pressure to come up with something again now. But I will preface these thoughts with a bigger caveat than usual: these are are very much players I think I are worth keeping an eye on - but not at all ones you should be buying immediately (well, not the second two, anyway).

So, first up we have Amad Diallo - who was nearly-but-not-quite a 'pick'  in this series four weeks ago. I'm probably a bit 'late to the party' on this one, since the young United star has certainly been an intriguing property in FPL for several weeks, and his ownership is now well over 15%. But so fickle are the FPL 'sheep' that there was a massive sell-off under way at the end of December, after he'd 'blanked' a mere two or three times (to be fair, the disillusion might have been more reasonably based on the general direness of Manchester United's performances in those matches, rather than those of Diallo himself, who, I thought, was still putting up a good show... in impossible circumstances). And despite a 9-pt haul against Liverpool the other week, and another impressive showing as a sub in the FA Cup victory over Arsenal on Sunday, his ownership seems to be continuing to dwindle (ever so slightly), rather than grow; the tide of 'public opinion' has, inexplicably, turned against the young man. Now, I still have doubts about how decisively Manchester United have turned the corner under Amorim's leadership, how robust their recent impressive renaissance may prove to be. But there's no questioning that something remarkable has happened at the club in the past couple of weeks: in the last two games, against 'better' opposition, they showed more passion, more cohesion, and were tactically smarter than their opponents - and you can feel the confidence in the team swelling after these two excellent results. They have Southampton up next. And their difficult fixture-run over the holiday period is now behind them; it's all looking much less challenging for them for a good way ahead now. I brought Diallo in a few weeks ago; I didn't lose patience with him over a short run of blanks (when he was still playing well); and I'm seriously thinking of making him captain this gameweek!

The near-simultaneous long-term injuries to Bournemouth's two central attackers last week could lead to a much more regular, important, and dangerous role for Dango Ouattara. I confess, this one is pretty speculative: there's a chance that the club will try to bring in a new striker during the current transfer window. And Antoine Semenyo is another prime candidate to take over at centre-forward, if they don't. But I think Ouattara's superior pace and muscularity probably make him a better fit for this position than Semenyo; and he did just produce a very impressive try-out for the role in this weekend's FA Cup tie. He only costs 5 million, and he's classified as a midfielder. However, I proffer this thought more as a wait-and-see, since Bournemouth have a rough run of fixtures until the middle of February. Moreover, there's a lot of competition for attention in the budget midfielder category, with the likes of Kevin Schade, Anthony Elanga, Harry Wilson, Omari Hutchinson, and Lucas Bergvall making some waves in recent weeks - as well as the aforementioned Amad Diallo, of course; and yes, even Morgan Rogers! [I have been fairly consistently 'sceptical' of Rogers's claims as the budget midfield pick since the very start of the season; but I have also always maintained that this is not because of any lack of admiration for his talent. I've simply felt that Villa's League form this season has been too fragile, and that the way he's mostly been played is not conducive to him getting regular attacking contributions. If you look at his heat-maps, he's often getting on the ball deep in his own half, and the great majority of his touches seem to be usually in and around the centre circle; he's very good at carrying the ball forward, but he's usually been releasing it to an attacking teammate long before he gets all that near the opposing penalty area. However, I think the gradual return of Boubacar Kamara to the Villa set-up since the tail-end of November may have been transformative: they now look much more secure in midfield, much less vulnerable to counter-attack, and that seems to be giving the other midfielders much more confidence to press further forward, without the constant fear of immediately having to sprint back to try to cover if there's a change in possession. And Rogers, in particular, seems to have been blossoming in this new environment, with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last four games (and another one in the Cup on Friday evening!); what's more, these have looked to me like replicable goals, like the sort of thing we could easily imagine him repeating on a frequent basis if he continues to play like this - whereas the few he'd got earlier in the season all looked like out-of-the-blue one-offs, untypical of his general play. Villa as a whole still look pretty flakey to me; but I think Rogers is - finally - worth consideration for that fifth midfielder slot.]

And finally.... the most speculative suggestion of the lot: Liverpool's 21-year-old right-back, Conor Bradley. Yes, at the moment, Trent looks as though he'll be staying till the end of the season, and keeping the start. But there must be a very good chance that Trent could be leaving in the next couple of weeks; and if negotiations with Real (or some other surprise suitor?) start tending that way, he might be dropped at any moment. Perhaps Arne Slot's giving him the armband against Accrington Stanley in the Cup on Saturday was less a 'vote of confidence' after his stinker of a performance against United in the League the previous week and more of a sentimental farewell....? If that happens, young Mr Bradley could be about to become the hottest defensive property in FPL. He was rather unkindly priced at 5.0 million at the start of the season (ridiculous for a player who can't have been expected to get many starts; but I suppose it says something about how well he played when he did stand in for Trent a handful of times last season), but he has fallen now to just 4.7. And I really don't think there's any better defensive prospect in FPL at that price at the moment. I am rather hoping that Trent is packing his bags for Spain already....

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott:

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip

Not (quite) a 'Pick of the Week'

I had thought of nominating Amad Diallo as one of my 'Picks of the Week' two or three weeks back. I hesitated because 'Ruben Roulette' was always likely to be a problem in the new manager's early days, and United's fixture schedule didn't look great. And indeed, young Diallo was dropped to the bench for the first half of the defeat by Arsenal, while United were beaten by Forest next time out after that, and only just squeaked a late win against an ever-deteriorating City last week. So, I feel my caution was well justified.

However, he's now racked up 44 points in the last 6 games, and his price has shot up by 200k in the last week-and-a-half, and he might be due for another bump at any moment. I do rather fear I might have missed the boat on him. Indeed, with over 400,000 new owners piling in for him so far this week, he looks certain to receive the (usually ill-omened!) accolade of being the week's 'Most Transferred-In Player'. Now, that rush of enthusiasm for him might make him a candidate for one of my less laudatory 'Sheep Pick' posts; but as I said last week in regard to Enzo, sometimes a mass surge of enthusiasm is well justified. Diallo, for me, is looking much the most promising pick from Manchester United at the moment. While there have been some other impressive performances under Amorim so far - notably Mazraoui and De Ligt, and of course Bruno - I think they're all simply good players, doing what they normally do; and, although they might be playing in a slightly adapted role, a different area of the field to what they're more used to, they are essentially playing in the same style and making the same sort of contribution to the game as they had under Ten Hag.... as they would under any tactical system. Diallo is the only United player who looks like he's absolutely playing his socks off to impress the new manager.... and is actually thriving under Amorim's system of play.

And he only costs 5 million (well, 5.2 now... and counting...).

So, yes, he's definitely worth considering for a cheap fifth midfielder. However, I'm still slightly wary of getting him just yet.

Although the worst of United's December fixture speed-bump is behind them, I think Bournemouth this weekend won't be an easy game for them; and they still have to face Newcastle and Liverpool either side of the New Year. And they're really not yet playing all that well as a team. They're still adapting to Amorim's tactical ideas; and the selections are still all over the place - never the same lineup up two gameweeks in a row (Ruben, my boy, I'm afraid this is being dangerously overdone!).

Moreover, a lot of the boy wonder's new purchasers are getting rather over-excited about the (probably unfounded) notion that he'll be even more of an attacking threat 'now that he's being played as one of the 10s rather than as a wing-back'. Um, he's not. Not yet. That was a one-off experiment in the City game. Amorim wanted to try Bruno out in a deeper role (which he might not want to do again); and he wanted to deliver a wrist-slap to two of his more obvious No. 10 candidates, Rashford and Garnacho (which he might or might not want to do again...). Diallo might well be back at wing-back this weekend (on either side!). Or dropped to the bench again. With Amorim's selections so wildly unpredictable at the moment, you just can't have any confidence in who he'll pick or where he'll try to play them.

Yes, this sudden switch of position actually alarmed me, more than anything: it made me think that if the erratic new coach hasn't yet decided where to play Diallo, maybe he hasn't even fully decided that he wants to play him (regularly) at all....  And it should be noted that in a lot of his comments before and after that City game, he was stressing that it was unfair to ask too much too soon from young players. Now, he might just have been talking about the psychological burden of inflated expectations; but he might also have been thinking in terms of minutes, of physical stress and the drain on stamina. So, I don't think we can yet trust that Diallo is an absolutely nailed starter.

Competition for FPL squad places is also a deterring factor. Bruno Fernandes has also been in excellent form in recent weeks, and a lot of people (over 14%) now own him. United certainly aren't yet good enough for anyone to be doubling up on their midfield, so that's an either/or dilemma. Even more importantly, Chelsea's Enzo Fernandez, with his form and upcoming fixtures, has become clearly the best of the sub-6-million-pound midfield options for now. And, although I tend to feel that you shouldn't need or want more than one budget midfielder, there are a number of other very tempting options in that price bracket: Rutter, Kluivert, Iwobi, Hudson-Odoi.

So, I'll be keeping a very close eye on Amad Diallo. And I think I'll be moving in for him as soon as my current 5th or 4th midfield picks falter at all. (Or maybe as soon as he gets another double-digit haul, and his price threatens to jump even higher!)  But for now, I find him - just about - resistible. [Damn - he scored another goal last night in the League Cup quarter-final against Spurs. I am so tempted....]

The Thai commentators I have to endure for most of my live coverage at the moment rather amusingly pronounce his name as Armadillo - hence my opening photo.

Picks of the Week (3)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'   (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

First up for Gameweek 16, we have.... Enzo Fernandez. Yes, I know, I am in danger of coming a little late to the party on this one, of making a fairly obvious and popular recommendation. Enzo started getting among the goals against Leicester three weeks ago, and his ownership has swelled by well over 400,000 since then - fully half of that increase just in the last few days! - boosting his price by 200k (though, at present, it's still only the very modest 5-million he started the season at - so, still a bit of a bargain!). Heck, he's looking set to be one of the most transferred-in players this week.... which might seem to make him a candidate for one of my 'Sheep Picks'. Why is he not?  Because people are right to be buying him in such huge numbers!  Suddenly he's got a regular start in the team again, and Maresca's found a way of fitting him in that gives him the freedom to get forward more and contribute in the attacking third alongside Palmer. And he's absolutely thriving on it: 3 goals and 2 assists in just 4 games; and his BPS numbers are through the roof - 150 in just those 4 games! In the space of just a few weeks, he has become clearly, unarguably, by far the most the most attractive pick in the budget midfielder category (in fact, he's been playing so well, he would probably still be one of the most attractive midfield picks even if he cost 8 or 9 million).

Why, then, have I been a little slow to acquire him? (And why do I still have slight reservations about doing so...?)  Well, there's a practical difficulty for many of us in fitting him into our squad. Palmer, of course, is indispensable at the moment; Jackson has shown much the best form of the higher-priced forwards this season; and Marc Cucurella has been in absolutely outstanding form over the last 5 matches; and some people like Sanchez (who's actually worked out quite well because of the kind fixture run, even though just about everybody now expects him to get axed next month) or Colwill (a bizarre choice, but a semi-popular one). So, we may already have our quota of Chelsea players, and be uncertain whether we want to sacrifice one of them; however good Enzo looks in isolation, he might still not be one of the three most valuable assets from Chelsea. (This is a problem with choosing players from Arsenal as well; for me, the decisive argument against Raya - great goalkeeper, but won't bring you as much of an edge over other goalkeepers as Timber and Gabriel or Saliba do over other defenders, or Saka and perhaps Odegaard do over other midfielders.) Also... I'm a little bit concerned that accommodating him with a regular starting place involves the 'convenient fiction' of starting Caicedo at right-back; and I think the Ecuadorian's distaste for this role - and/or the strong claims of Gusto and Reece James (well, if he ever gets fit again...) in that position - may mean that this is not a long-term or invariable formation. But we'll cross that bridge... if it gets built; for now, I'm joining 'the sheep' and rushing in for Enzo.

[Well, this recommendation proved a little disappointing at first. Enzo picked up an assist against Brentford in the first match after I published this, and a clean-sheet point in the following game against Everton. But he - and Chelsea - have been much more subdued over Gameweeks 16-18. As I'd feared, he hasn't been able to continue to play in such a free and advanced role - mainly because the absence of Romeo Lavia with an injury is requiring him to sit a bit deeper and help out Caicedo in the middle of the park. At least he's been continuing to start every game, and play the full 90 minutes; but no sign of any further goals - or any bonus points - in the last few games.]

No, I'm not just getting a rush of blood to the head because Bournemouth's teen prodigy Dean Huijsen scored a header in the midweek game against Spurs last week. He was bloody good at the defensive end of things too: absolutely outstanding, in fact - barely allowed Solanke a kick all game, won 'Man of the Match' in the BBC's online poll, and had the home fans singing his name at the final whistle. And again looked very, very solid in Sunday's game against Ipswich. With the Argentinian stalwart Marcos Senesi likely to be sidelined for several weeks with a serious thigh injury, the youngster is looking set for a good run of starts. I'm not suggesting anyone should immediately install him as one of their three preferred starting defenders; but his price has fallen to 4.3 million (from a rather ungenerous opening level of 4.5 at the start of the season, when, I suppose, it was imagined that perhaps he might be getting a regular start immediately; though I can't understand why anyone could have thought that when Senesi and Zabarnyi were so outstanding last season), which makes him a tempting budget pick for the rarely used fourth or fifth defender slots - particularly as Bournemouth now have a pretty kind fixture run through until mid-January.

[Young Huijsen has been one of the biggest successes in this series of recommendations so far. He didn't quite make an immediate hit, blanking in the turgid 1-1 draw against West Ham in GW16, but got a huge 14-poinr haul in the next game against Manchester United, scoring a header, keeping a clean sheet, and raking in maximum bonus points. As Bournemouth's defensive form steadily improved, he kept another clean sheet and again picked up maximum bonus points in the Boxing Day game against Palace - though he did also get booked in that one.]

And finally, as a slightly more left-field third suggestion this week, I propose Nottingham Forest's Jota Silva. The 25-year-old Portuguese attacking midfielder suddenly seems to have displaced Anthony Elanga in the pecking-order at the club, and has looked absolutely on fire in his three consecutive starts over the last couple of weeks (I find myself surprised that he hasn't yet registered a goal or an assist: he looks very, very likely to soon). Like Fernandez and Huijsen, his absence from the first team caused his opening price to drop a little; and at just 5.9 million, he's looking a very attractive prospect to me at the moment. Forest's little fixture-difficulty blip is pretty much behind them too: with the form they're in, they don't have to fear Brentford or Spurs; and while the New Year game against Liverpool is bound to be tough, at least it's at home - and they've already done them once this season! Apart from that, they don't really face anyone terribly formidable until City in mid-February. (Time to get back in on Sels and their defenders, I fancy... And, if you also have Wood up front - and why would you not? - that could again mean that your club quota is fully occupied. But if you do have space for one more Forest player, I think Silva is worth consideration.)

[Oh dear! Well, Jota Silva was more of a 'one to watch' than a strong recommendation. He had seemed to have become a nailed starter in the Forest lineup; but as soon as I mentioned him here, he lost his place to the resurgent Anthony Elanga. He's still getting regular minutes off the bench, and still looking pretty sharp - but he's obviously not an FPL prospect unless he gets a regular start again.]

Picks of the Week (2)

 DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'   (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

In Gameweek 13 I'm most excited about Jurrien Timber. I always thought he could be a very tempting - cheaper - way to get some representation in the formidable Arsenal defence; but the start of his season was interrupted by a string of injuries. That record is still a bit of a worry for anyone thinking of acquiring him, but - it is time to be brave, I think. He's now started the last 4 games with no sign of a 'reaction'; and he has looked a bit of a monster in each of them - fast, strong, and very composed on the ball. The medium-term absence of Ben White now removes any serious threat of rotation. And the likelihood that he'll be starting on the right rather than the left means that he should be able to get involved in the attack a bit more, and have a few opportunities to provide an 'assist' for Saka or Odegaard. Although Arsenal's January schedule is looking a bit testing, their run up until the end of the year is very soft indeed. I am usually wary of doubling up in defence, but with the number of strong clean sheet prospects Arsenal face over the coming five weeks, there's a strong case for fielding both Gabriel (or Saliba, if you must) and Timber.

I also recommend Georginio Rutter of Brighton. His minutes have been a little short; but, on the plus side, that means Hurzeler is mostly 'rotating' his big squad with time off the bench rather than sharing starts around too much. Rutter has begun every game since GW3, and 2 goals and 4 assists in that time is a pretty good return for a bargain midfielder. And the 'eye test' recommends him even more highly than his numbers so far: like Palmer, he's one of those players you just can't take your eyes off - he looks super-sharp all the time, constantly switched-on, constantly eager and alert, constantly looking to get on the ball and make something happen. With the very favourable fixture run Brighton are now enjoying (they don't have a really tough game until mid-February - apart from their New Year fixture against Arsenal; and at least that's at home), I have a feeling he could be about to explode. He's only 1 point adrift of the the recently disappointing Semenyo and Rogers with 2 fewer games than them, and making a strong claim to displace them - or the lately even more suspect McNeil or Smith Rowe - from the budget midfielder slot. And at the moment, his ownership is still ridiculously low - only just over 1.5%!

And I'll throw in a third suggestion this week: Bart Verbruggen. I wasn't at all convinced by the Dutch keeper when he joined Brighton at the beginning of last year (but that may have been partly bitterness on my part, as I'd had Jason Steele in my initial squad for the season!). Like his countryman Flekken, he took some time to settle into the pace of the Premier League; and his adjustment was made harder by De Zerbi's perverse keeper rotation policy. But, unlike Flekken, he improved enormously, and gradually established his claim to be the preferred starter. This season, he's been doing a very solid job, impressively calm and unflappable. Brighton's inability to keep a clean sheet is a bit of a worry (only 1 so far), but they do seem to be getting a little stronger defensively, I think. He's well up in the top ten for 'saves', and has one of the best xGC delta numbers - nearly -3.5. He's saving Brighton a goal, and valuable points, every 3 or 4 games. The points tally might not yet reflect it, but on form he is pretty nearly the best keeper in the league at the moment. And Brighton have a lovely fixture run now; apart from Villa and Arsenal at the turn of the year, it's pretty much all soft games until the middle of February. Even they should be able to keep a few clean sheets during this spell, surely....

How did they do?

Well, Brighton suffered the curse of the evening kick-off in their Friday visit to Southampton: they dominated the game but couldn't quite put their chances away, and ended up losing narrowly. So, nothing for Verbruggen in my first week backing him (only a solitary save credited to him, and 2 goals conceded); but Rutter was very impressive, constantly looking to cause danger. Along with Mitoma, he was Brighton's best player on the night, and was unlucky not to convert one of 3 fantastic chances that he carved out single-handedly: one low shot inches wide of the post, a beautiful curler that smashed against the inside of the other post, and then a spectacular bicycle-kick which deflected wide off a defender. If he carries on in this form, he's looking likely to pick up a lot of goals.  

Rutter, alas, continued to disappoint: he was rested against Fulham in GW14, and only registered 'appearance points' in his next three outings. He's still looking lively - usually one of Brighton's best two or three players - but the team lost its way rather in December, suffering a dreadful slump in form; something that I don't think anyone saw coming.

I'm more embarrassed about Verbruggen, who really looked quite poor over the next 5 games, conceding 10 goals and not keeping any clean sheets, as Brighton crashed to 3-1 defeats to Fulham and Palace, and laboured to draws against relegation fodder Southampton, Leicester and West Ham. (I protest that I just threw him in as an afterthought, a possible one to watch rather than a primary recommendation.) His return of just 8 points over these 5 games was quite dismal.

Timber, on the other hand, is looking a solid recommendation. He got off to a disappointing start, being one of the few players not to claim a share of the goodies in the demolition of West Ham; and it was a bummer that Arsenal somehow managed to concede 2 goals in that game. Nonetheless, Timber is, as anticipated, now a nailed starter at full-back, usually on the right, and impressing every week. He picked up clean sheets in two of the next three matches, and also notched a goal and maximum bonus points against Manchester United. 24 points from 4 matches: not bad! Though I'm bummed that he again missed out on a share in the attacking points in the emphatic victory over Crystal Palace in GW17, and picked up a late booking too....

Picks of the Week

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I thought I would start occasionally trying to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'   (And some weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

So, first off, in Gameweek 12, I give you Anthony Gordon. After a bit of an up-and-down start to the season - which has seen his price crash from 7.5 million to 7.2 million (that makes him a tempting bargain in itself!) - he's really begun to look back at his best in the last two games against Arsenal and Forest, and in the recent games for England. And Newcastle overall are on a strongly upward trend too, with the new-look defence finally starting to click, Isak looking fit and sharp up front once more after his injury issues (and Callum Wilson just about ready again, just in time to provide occasional back-up during the busy holiday schedule).  And apart from Liverpool at the start of December (who they at least face at St. James's), Newcastle really have a very nice run of fixtures now, all the way through into February.

Joao Pedro looked absolutely sensational on his return from injury for the last 25 minutes against City. And after another two weeks to work on his fitness over the international break, he should now be ready to play a full 90 minutes. His ability to play a variety of different roles should mean that he is more rotation-proof than almost any of Brighton's other attacking players. And if he's back on penalty duty, he could be a significant points provider over the coming weeks. And even if he's not, I'd fancy him to displace Welbeck as the primary goal-provider (not necessarily to take his place in the team, just to start nabbing more of the goals), particularly as the veteran centre-forward must be in danger of getting a bit weary or stale after such an uncommonly long scoring streak (and, for him, an uncommonly long streak of staying injury-free), and will surely get some rest rotation over the Christmas fixture logjam. Brighton have a few more challenging fixtures in January and early February, but their run through to the end of the year is looking very sweet - and that makes many of their players suddenly much more attractive FPL assets, but most especially, I think, Joao Pedro.

How did they do?

Well, a bit of a mixed bag for my first venture into the 'Recommendations' business! Joao Pedro, although subbed off for a rest alarmingly soon after the hour mark, did indeed have another superb game, notching a goal, an assist, and maximum bonus points for a 12-point haul. Gordon, on the other hand, had an oddly subdued game, managing only one attempt on goal (well blocked by Fabianksi) and getting pulled with 25 minutes still to play - for a scant 2 points. I have faith that he will soon do better; evening games often throw teams out of their stride - Newcastle are usually much better than this.

I will try to remember to check in on these guys here again from time to time over the next couple of months.

Alas, as Brighton's form mysteriously crumbled in December, Joao Pedro had a frustrating time of it: still looking pretty good in patches, but the rest of the team weren't playing well enough to create many good opportunities for him. In the next 5 games from GW13 onwards, he managed only a solitary assist and a disappointing total of just 13 points.

Gordon has looked a more solid acquisition. Though he hasn't quite caught fire yet, as we know he sometimes can, he got either a goal or an assist in 5 of the 6 games up until the end of the year (being rested in GW15 against Brentford and only getting half an hour off the bench).