Pick of the transfers

Newcastle's new striker 

(It was either this or 'Mr Blobby' - consider yourselves lucky!)

There was indeed a last-minute surge of loan and transfer business at the end of the summer transfer window, with 25 new deals being concluded on Monday (and a few being cancelled!).

Now that the dust is settling from all of that mayhem, I thought I'd quickly review what I think the most interesting moves will be, in terms of their likely impact for FPL managers. In most cases, these are not the biggest names, or players joining the biggest clubs; they are players who've rarely been given a proper opportunity at their former clubs in recent years, and might now suddenly blossom when they enjoy the prospect of a regular start. Picks like these - only fringe players, at best, at their original clubs, or new arrivals from abroad and hence fairly unknown quantities in the Premier League - are quite low-priced,... and may perhaps prove to be very attractively under-priced. 

Moreover, such players joining clubs that have had a weak start to the season will have more scope to have a really transformative impact; and that could have significant knock-on effects, greatly improving their new side's prospects for the season and boosting the FPL value of some of their thus far disappointing teammates. That's why I think these options are the ones most worthy of careful consideration. (I'll mention some of the more high-profile trades briefly at the end of this piece.)

So, for me, these are the ones to watch, among the recently transferred players:

Harvey Elliott (Aston Villa) - Klopp himself said that one of his greatest regrets was failing to find a way to give Elliott more minutes at Liverpool (it was a problem that his best position is as an attacking midfielder off the right flank, a position that is inevitably monopolised by Mo Salah; though he does also look pretty handy as a No. 10...). I've been a huge fan of his for the past four years: almost always outstanding whenever he did get on the pitch for Liverpool, and for the England Under-21s, I think he has the potential to be as good as Palmer or Saka. Even if he doesn't quite scale those heights - not immediately, anyway - I think he is just what Villa need to re-energize themselves after their dismally flat start to the season. At only 5.4 million, I suspect Elliott could now prove to be one of the best value-for-money returners of the season, and a prime candidate for the crucial 5th midfield seat. (And even if he isn't, he might help to revitalise the FPL appeal of players like Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, and Youri Tielemans.)

Jack Grealish (Everton) - Jack has made an outstanding start at Everton already, and it's great to see him playing with a smile on his face again. His price has already jumped to 6.7 million, but in this much-improved Everton side, he's currently looking like he might get an assist almost every week, as players like Ndiaye and Beto regularly get into good positions to receive his deft crosses and cutbacks. (But that may well mean that Ndiaye and Beto are actually the better picks from Everton. Grealish might only ever contribute assists - and that's really not enough for FPL.)

Xavi Simons (Spurs) - For me, the most exciting of the big-name overseas signings, and one who could potentially have almost as big an impact as Elliott and Grealish. The thing restricting the scope of his importance for his new club's performance, I think, is not his ability but the fact that Spurs had a pretty good squad already - and have made a really strong start to the season; there's not that much room for a new player to drastically improve things. With other left-sided attacking players like Richarlison, Tel, and Odobert that they could call on, there might in fact be some doubts about whether Simons will be an invariable starter; but I feel they wouldn't have bought him if they were satisfied with their existing options; Simons should surely be the default starter, if fit. And he is very, very good.

Callum Wilson (West Ham) - The big problem with Wilson, of course, is that he's rarely managed to stay fit for more than 8 or 10 games. But when he's healthy and in-form, he's a hell of a striker; and he looked absolutely on fire in his debut for the Hammers in Gameweek 3. And since the club had had such a dreadful start to the season - becoming instant relegation favourites after their abysmal showing in the first two games - the opportunity for him to be a catalyst for transformation is huge. As long as he can keep out of the treatment room, he is looking by far the best of the 6.5-and-under forward options (he's only 5.9 million at the moment).

Dan Ndoye (Nottingham Forest) - Forest's new right-winger has been one of the biggest successes of the new summer signings so far. He's got a lot to do to rival the impact that Elanga achieved in the second half of last season, but he's made an outstanding start, with a goal and an assist in his first two games. He might now face some competition for the place from late signing Dilane Bakwa, who also looks quite handy; but the start is surely Ndoye's for the time being.

Reiss Nelson (Brentford) - Brentford have also had a rocky start, and desperately need an infusion of new blood to revinvigorate their attack. And the talented Arsenal youngster could be just the player to give them that. Of course, there will be worries about how far his development - and confidence - have been set back by getting so few minutes at his home club, and by missing most of last season with a succession of injuries. But if he's back to his best, Reiss should thrive on the responsibility of being a main creative provider at a smaller club.

Nick Woltemade (Newcastle) - 'Voldemort', as I'm sure he'll soon be known, hadn't registered on many people's radars; Newcastle had been impressively stealthy in their pursuit of him. But the estimable Adam Clery (best tactical analyst on Youtube and Newcastle uber-fan) rates his potential very highly, and that's enough for me to put him on the watchlist. Although the Stuttgart striker's a very big lad (probably about to become the Premier League's tallest player), it seems he's got very good feet as well, and likes to drop deep and play in teammates from the No.10 space as well as occasionally causing mayhem in the box. All players new to clubs (and especially forwards) take some time to settle in; and most players joining from overseas (especially forwards) also struggle a bit at first to adapt to the physical intensity of the Premier League. So, we'll probably need to give him some time to bed in; and we'll have to accept that, at least at first, he's probably going to be minutes-sharing quite a bit with their other new forward signing, Yoane Wissa. But I am quietly optimistic about his prospects; if he might not be quite as explosive a finisher as Sesko or Gyokeres, I feel he might thrive at Newcastle more than those other two will at their new clubs.

Senne Lammens (Manchester United) - I have no idea how good the young Belgian keeper is, but he's got to be a substantial improvement on Onana and Bayindir, hasn't he?? United's defence has usually managed to remain fairly secure, even when the team in front of them was at its worst; and they've actually started this season rather promisingly, with Dorgu and Yoro finally shaping up, and Luke Shaw back from his latest long injury absence. A decent keeper behind the back-three could give the club a major boost. Unfortunately, at 5.0 million, he's probably too expensive to be of much interest in FPL himself (unless United suddenly go on a clean-sheet bender!); but he might be the catalyst that helps spark a more successful run of performances, and hence make some of their other players more worthy of consideration.

Anthony Elanga (Newcastle) - He's progressed in leaps and bounds since his departure from Manchester United, and seems very excited about his move to Newcastle. Their swift attacking style should suit him down to the ground, and - if he can develop a good rapport with their new striker(s) - I can see the potential for a lot of attacking contributions from him this season. However, with Jacob Murphy so good in that right-flank role during the second half of last year, and Barnes and Gordon also able to play on that side, it might be doubted if he'll be an invariable starter. There'll probably be quite a lot of rotation around the big European fixtures, unfortunately.

Tyler Dibling (Everton) - The England youth international was one of the few bright spots in Southampton's brief visit to the Premier League last season. Unfortunately, he's now classified as a midfielder rather than a full-back, and he might not get a regular start as winger/wing-back/full-back on Everton's right (and, even if he does, we can expect that they'll strongly favour attacking down the left, through Grealish). But if he gets a run of starts, and hits a vein of form, he's one of those who could be in consideration for occasional rotation through the 5th midfield slot. My expectation for his season is that he'll be looking to make enough of a splash to get himself a move to a bigger club.

Joao Palhinha (Spurs) and Mateus Fernandes (West Ham) - And to finish, two outstanding central midfielders, who will, I think, certainly play a crucial role in stabilising their sides and making them more leak-proof; and both should benefit substantially from the new 'defensive points' this season. Fernandes also showed quite a knack for picking up a goal with Southampton last season; Palhinha is also capable of scoring a few, but at Fulham he relied heavily on taking the penalties to boost his FPL returns, and he's unlikely to be given that duty at Spurs. These are probably not players who are directly worth considering for FPL themselves; but they might help to elevate the appeal of some of their teammates!

 

I hesitated to add Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton) to this list, because I'd already nominated 2 Everton players. And I suspect he won't maintain the deadly scoring form he's shown at the start of the season for long. But he's another player I've admired for years, since he first started appearing for Leicester; and I'm very excited about what he could achieve with his new club. If he does go on a scoring streak, he's definitely worth looking at for the 5th seat.

I also omitted Joao Pedro (Chelsea), purely because, with the deal having been done shortly after the end of last season and him having already helped to win the Club World Cup in July, he no longer feels like a 'new' transfer! But I think I'd place a bet that JP will be the highest FPL points-returner of all this year's signings.

There are grave doubts about their clubs' prospects this season, after losing so many key players over the summer, but Caoimhin Kelleher and Michael Kayode (Brentford), and Bafode Diakite and Adrien Truffert (Bournemouth) look to me like the most promising new options at the defensive end of the pitch.

[Well, damn, none of these newcomers have really set the world on fire yet; the keeper and defenders at the end of the review are the only ones who've performed decently and consistently. Grealish (and Ndoye - and Dewsbury-Hall and Joao Pedro!) faded after a bright start, Xavi Simons just hasn't been able to find his form at Spurs yet, Reiss Nelson's been injured, Elanga has struggled to settle in at Newcastle and has been displaced by Jacob Murphy, Tyler Dibling's only getting occasional cameos off the bench, Callum Wilson's yet to make an impact at West Ham (although at least he graduated to a regular start in GW10), and poor Harvey Elliott seems to have got on Unai Emery's wrong side (although, of course, it doesn't help that he's fighting for a place against John McGinn and Emi Buendia). But at least they haven't been such abject disappointments as the 'big name' signings below all proved to be in the opening three months of the season! Really, only Palhinha, Lammens, and Woltemade (and Ekitike) had an immediate impact at their new clubs. As of late November, everyone else was still stuck in 'failure to launch' status.]

And these are the ones to curb your enthusiasm over:

Alexander Isak (Liverpool) - After skipping team training since the start of the new season (and with little opportunity to train now with his new club during a two-week international break), it is very doubtful if Isak will be either physically or tactically ready for a start in Gameweek 4,... and perhaps not even in Gameweek 5 or 6. Moreover, Ekitike and Gakpo have really been playing too well so far to be dropped. And even when he is ready to be integrated into the side, it's likely that he'll be rotated with Ekitike a fair bit, to keep him fresh for the big European games. Even if he were to play a full 90 minutes in every Premier League game (and that is not going to happen), he's unlikely to be as productive for FPL at Liverpool, where he's only one of their many routes to goal, as he was at Newcastle, where he was the primary outlet. This might be a very good move for his career, but - paradoxically! - it's probably a pretty terrible one for his fans in FPL-land; his points prospects are now significantly reduced, and even if he does really, really well,... he's unlikely to be worth his 10.5-million price-tag any more.

Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) - I could be wrong on this, but my suspicion is that Newcastle just wanted some decent quality back-up to ease the pressure on Woltemade during his bedding-in phase, and thought a player like Wissa, used to playing second-fiddle at Brentford for the last few years, would accept - however grudgingly - such a subordinate role. I don't see him being the regular starter once the German's found his feet. And, as with Isak, because he's been a naughty boy and withdrawn himself from training to try to force through his transfer, he's unlikely to be ready to play until Gameweek 5 or 6.

Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) - The Gunners just haven't hit their stride yet. And the period of adjustment to a new country and club is likely to be even tougher for Gyokeres, or rather for his team - because they've got used to playing without a central striker for the past few years. I believe Gyokeres will eventually come good, and perhaps be one of the top-returning forwards this season; but it might take another month or two before that really starts happening.

Ebere Eze (Arsenal) - Rather as with Isak, but more so, Eze isn't likely to be sufficiently indoctrinated with Arteta's tactical approach to be considered as a starter for a few weeks; and he might not get regular starts even then (there are good reasons to prefer Martinelli against certain opponents). And even if he is starting most games, it is unlikely that Arsenal will transform their overall style to accommodate such a maverick (Arteta likes disciplined team build-up, not flamboyant improvisation), or that they will substantially shift their attacking emphasis away from their favoured right side (White-Odegaard-Saka). Eze, unfortunately, is now a huge minutes-risk, and even if he plays regularly is unlikely to have anywhere near as much impact as he did at Palace - where he was invariably the primary creative force, and a primary goalscorer.

Benjamin Sesko and Bryan Mbeumo and Mateus Cunha (Manchester United) - This trio look on paper as if they should be the most terrifying attack in the Premier League. But so far, they've been looking as if they might become the most terrifying attack in the Championship next year. Amorim, for some reason, hasn't even trusted Sesko with a start yet; and the other two have shown only brief glimpses of the attacking danger they exhibited so regularly for their old clubs. They are hamstrung by playing in a still largely dysfunctional team (central midfield is the backbone of any successful side, and United at the moment just don't have one) under a coach who seems to have completely lost the plot. Also, I've always suspected that these three guys just aren't really going to fit together, they have no complimentary chemistry.

None of Pep's recruits - no, not even Ait-Nouri or Reijnders or Cherki - can be guaranteed regular starts. And City just aren't playing that well, anyway: they look like they could struggle even worse than they did last season, and face a real battle to stay in contention for Champions League qualification. And I doubt if Donnarumma can turn things around for them: he might be the world's best keeper, but they already had three outstanding shot-stoppers on their books - what they needed was a new keeper who was really good in early build-up play, and Donnarumma isn't that.

Randal Kolo Muani (Spurs), I'm actually really intrigued about: I think he's very talented, and could turn out to be a great acquisition for them. But I suspect he's just been brought in to add squad depth for their Champions League campaign, and I doubt he'll immediately displace Solanke or Richarlison as the main central striker options.

Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool), who has been, to date, probably the strongest of the big clubs' signings, is unfortunately now likely to become a minutes-risk, after the somewhat superfluous addition of Isak to the Liverpool squad.

And, as I said in early August, although Florian Wirtz is a great player, it's likely to take him at least a couple of months or so to fully settle in at Anfield, and even when he has, he's not going to be a particularly prolific goalscorer - so, for FPL, there are almost certainly other Liverpool players you'll want more.

I have similar doubts about Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez. I think they'll both be fine eventually, but are likely to have a difficult settling-in period. And, at the moment, Liverpool just aren't looking very secure defensively, and even the great Van Dijk is seeming a questionable pick.

So, no, sorry - none of the more glamorous signings get my juices flowing at the moment. They might, when they settle in and find some form; but for now, they don't seem worth gambling on.