Not such a BAD Double Gameweek....

A lot of folks online are griping and whingeing about what a rotten Double Gameweek it turned out to be...

I say they need to try to cultivate a more balanced perspective.

Gameweek 33 was a bit of a mixed bag: not great, but far from terrible either.

It was in fact much better for FPL managers who'd gone big on the doubling teams than I had anticipated (perhaps straying too far towards the pessimistic pole on this one....). Manchester City and Crystal Palace, somewhat improbably, hung on to clean sheets in their Saturday games; and City managed two wins, in games they might have been expected to struggle in, while Palace picked up two plucky draws in games they were generally expected to lose. And Villa pulled off quite the surprise with their emphatic win over Newcastle. Few of the main doubling players missed out through injury or rotation, so most ended up with decent points. Meanwhile, those FPL managers who'd opted not to pick up too many extra doubling players were hard hit by low or blank returns from the majority of the most fancied Single Gameweek players: Salah and Diaz and Jota, Isak and Murphy and Barnes, Elanga and Gibbs-White, Palmer and Jackson, Doucoure and Beto, Cunha and Strand Larsen. Hence, only 3 single-game players - Sessegnon, Mbeumo, and Wissa - wound up in the 'Team of the Week',.... where I'd expected there might be at least 4 or 5, maybe even 6 or 7 or 8.

However, only Trossard, among the doublers, came in with a really big haul. And many of the best returns of the week came from less expected (lower-owned!) doubling players like Henderson, Zinchenko, Kiwior, and Matheus Nunes.

Single-game Bryan Mbeumo produced the second biggest total of the week. And alhough only a few of them made it into the 'Team of the Week', several of the best single-game players were close to the best performances of the week,.... and somewhat better than the majority of the doublers.

This Double Gameweek 33 didn't look all that promising; and it had the potential to be a bit of a disaster for people who'd bet big on the doubling teams. In fact it worked out pretty well for them - rather better than could have been reasonably expected! - and most of them probably did slightly better for the week than the majority of those who had moderated their selections of doubling players. The advantage was perhaps only very slight; but it could easily have been zero.... or less-than-zero!  You folks dodged a bullet; and you should be bloody grateful!

Picks of the Week - DGW33

Which players should we covet specifically for this week's Double Gameweek??

Well, this should even quicker than last week's review of the options....

NONE.

Or at least, none that you don't have already.

If there are a lot of doubling teams to choose from, you can make sure you only get the best players from the best teams, with the best fixtures. And you can try to minimise the number of players you have who are pitched against each other in the same match.

With a smaller Double Gameweek like this, you can't do that. You only have 4 teams to choose from - and, inevitably, they're all playing each other. And the other team they're playing is a daunting opponent, for three of the four. Only Arsenal actually have a decent double-fixture. The others are best avoided, at least for defensive assets, as it's difficult to have much confidence that they'll win either game; certainly, clean sheets don't look very likely for anyone.

Moreover, apart from Arsenal, the doubling teams aren't all that good - only mid-table sides this year: good mid-table sides, yes, but they've been so inconsistent, and have such glaring defensive frailties, that they're left scrapping with the likes of Fulham and Brighton for the chance of a place in the lesser European competitions next year, rather than challenging hard for Champions League qualification: Palace, Villa, and City are just not teams to be all that enthused about at the moment.

Loading up on doubling players should be dismissed as undesirable/impossible if you haven't kept your Free Hit or Wildcard to get yourself out of trouble in the following week when those players will all miss a fixture. And if you use the Free Hit to get around the Blank Gameweek, you're then left with all those players for the rest of the season. Do you really want 10 or 12 players from those teams, with their remaining runs of fixtures?? Do you even want 7 or 8?? I would suggest NOT. So, you won't just be burning transfers to bring players in for this week, you'll probably be burning more to get rid of most of them again as soon as possible. It is very, very unlikely that any doubling player will give you enough of a points lift to justify using two transfers on them in a short space of time.

I would rather be considering moving out some players from the doubling teams, as I really don't see much value from Palace or Villa players with their fixtures.

Arsenal have a good chance of picking up one clean sheet, possibly two - so it could be tempting to load up on their defence and/or get Raya in goal. But as I just noted above, you might not want to be overstocked with Arsenal defensive assets beyond this week, as their next three opponents - Bournemouth, Liverpool, and Newcastle - are quite challenging (and they'll probably be somewhat distracted by the forthcoming Champions League showdown with PSG). Most people have William Saliba already, since there was never that much to choose between him and Gabriel as the most reliable defensive pick for FPL this year, and for those who hadn't picked him already, he was the natural replacement for Gabriel when he tore his hamstring at the start of this month. There's a bit too much uncertainty about rotation in the rest of the Arsenal defence, though Jurrien Timber or perhaps Ben White could be worth gambling on. David Raya, though, I would be wary of, because of the following fixtures. As for attacking assets - well, they don't have a striker, none of their attacking midfielders have established regular goalscoring form, and there's too much likelihood of rotation in those positions. Some people are getting over-optimisitic about Bukayo Saka's prospects now that he's back from injury - but I think he's likely to be wrapped in cotton wool and saved for the PSG games. The in-form (and rarely rested) Declan Rice would be my pick, if you are going for another Arsenal man. Trossard, Merino, or Martinelli could always come up with something; but it's so difficult to guess if they'll start in both games.

Most people already have Omar Marmoush (well, over 31% own him), who's been in excellent form lately - although arguably not a top three striker pick, without the benefit of an additional fixture. Many have Josko Gvardiol as well (and indeed, have held on to him all season): his goalscoring is phenomenal, but his opportunities to register attacking contributions are severely limited when he plays in central defence; and City still look like they're going to be leaking a lot of goals. All the attacking midfield options are far too at risk of unpredictable rotations. Kevin DeBruyne is the only one who'd tempt me, after his sensational performance against Palace last week; but he is turning 34 in a couple of months, and definitely starting to show his age - I fear it's very doubtful that he'll play a full 90 minutes twice within a few days.

Many people have Morgan Rogers (or Asensio or Rashford) already. Fine to keep them, and keep your fingers crossed, for this week; but it's difficult to imagine them getting much against Newcastle or City. And Villa, alas, have usually been dreadful immediately after one of their big European games; that's likely to be even worse this time, with them being emotionally depleted as well by the narrow loss to PSG. I certainly wouldn't touch any Villa defensive assets with a bargepole for these two games. And Ollie Watkins isn't worth getting in just for this week.

Palace, I fear, may be badly demoralised by the two heavy spankings they've just suffered; these defeats might signal a collapse in form. Part of the problem might be that they just don't have a deep enough squad at the moment to cope with playing twice in a week - and they're now looking at having had to play four times wihin 10 or 11 days. Mateta looks to be out of form, perhaps inhibited by his painful ear injury. Sarr has been predictably disappointing (just not a reliable goalscorer, only a once-in-a-blue-moon kind of guy); and I wouldn't want to take a chance on having Munoz or Henderson for a pair of games they're very likely to lose. (Indeed, I can see them not winning another game this season.)  Only Eberechi Eze might be worth having from the Eagles.

I think we might well see a particularly emphatic exposé of the Double Gameweek Delusion this week. Double-fixtures are not automatically better than single-fixtures; they are usually only worth pursuing if at least one of them is a good fixture. (And in this DGW, NONE of them are - except for Arsenal's.)  Even then, you have to bear in mind other factors as well, like the transferred-in players' prospects in the following weeks.

Some people are going crazy for the DGW, using a chip or spending 'hits' to bring in the maximum 12 doublers - even dropping the best of their current squad to do so,... some even dropping Mo Salah! That is INSANITY. Mo Salah, with a game against awful Leicester, is very likely to be the week's highest-scoring player (yes, even without a second game!). And if he isn't, it will probably be Luis Diaz or Diogo Jota; or maybe Mbeumo against Brighton, or Iwobi against Chelsea, or Bowen against Southampton, or Elanga against Spurs, or Evanilson against Palace, or Cunha or Strand Larsen against Manchester United. The doubles this week are nothing to get excited about, and I don't see doubling players dominating the 'Team of the Week' (they're bound to get some representation; but maybe only 4 or 5 spots, not all 11!). You ignore the most promising single-gameweek players at your peril.

Picks of the Week - DGW32

 

Just a quickie this week, to run through the possible Double Gameweek picks....

As I often warn, double gameweeks are not the magical pot of gold so many people suppose they must automatically be - and this next one, GW32, is really a bit shit: two above-average but well below-the-best teams facing pairs of non-straightforward opponents, games whose outcome is hard to predict... but very possibly - likely - not going to go the doublers' way.

People are probably only going for Palace players (apart from Munoz, who's been excellent for a while; and Mateta who has shown some strong goalscoring form since the turn of the year, at least up until his recent injury) because they have another double next week (though that one's arguably even tougher than this week's!). Since their two games this week will be hard to win, and they almost certainly won't be able to keep a clean sheet in either, I'd suggest passing on any of their defence - even Munoz! And if you were going to go for one, I'd favour Dean Henderson, since at least a keeper can pick up some useful 'saves' points, even when his side take a battering. Mateta's sharpness and confidence are likely to be undermined by his sore ear for a while, so I'm not sure there's much value in him either (particularly with budget options like Evanilson and Strand Larsen, and the similarly-priced Marmoush doing so well at the moment). And Ismaila Sarr I have expressed my scepticism about before: good player, but not a great player, and not a regular goalscorer. For me, Eberechi Eze is the only attacking asset - and probably the only player at all - one ought to be taking from Palace for these two double-fixtures.

Newcastle have slightly better fixtures in the double, both at home, where they do tend to be much more formidable; and then a not-too-bad run over the next few weeks - including a strong prospect for a clean sheet against Ipswich in GW34. So, picks from their defence are rather more viable than from Palace's. It would be nice if we could be confident that Trippier was back to his best; but, alas, we can't. A lot of FPL managers are getting over-excited about Tino Livramento having just scored a goal; but history suggests that will be the last time he does that for a year or two! He has been playing superbly of late, but Fabian Schar and Dan Burn carry a much more regular goal-threat, so they would be my suggestions. Nick Pope I would pass on; his form hasn't looked that convincing to me this season - quite a few big saves, yes, but also far more errors than usual.

Alexander Isak is the only other strong pick from the Geordies at the moment; and everyone ought to have him already, because he's been the Striker of the Season. Anthony Gordon might be in contention for some, although it looks like he's still a big injury doubt, for the first game at least; and his form has been a little disappointing over the last few months. The recently excellent Jacob Murphy - again, quite widely owned already (now in over 17% of teams) - is also a tempting option; but, given the fixtures, I'm not sure he's tempting enough to be worth bringing in just for this week, if you don't already have him.

People flock greedily to a Double Gameweek for their 'Assistant Manager' chip as well. Some favour Newcastle and Eddie Howe, because they look the likelier to pick up two wins. But I don't think those wins are by any means guaranteed, and I certainly don't see either of them being big wins. And neither of them can earn the crucial table-bonus extra points.

Palace's Oliver Glasner would be more tempting for me, as the high-risk/high-reward option with two table-bonuses on offer: if he gets a draw against Newcastle, he'll probably do as well or better than Howe over the double; if he can get something against City as well, he'll slaughter him. But even if he does rather less well than Howe this week, he's still the better pick if you have more weeks to run on the chip, because there's also the chance of an elevated return for him next gameweek (with another double, and one table-bonus opportunity); being able to keep the same AM pick for successive gameweeks - not having to burn a transfer to swap them out, maybe at the cost of a 'hit' - is a huge plus.

But I think Everton's David Moyes or Brentford's Thomas Frank have really good chances of getting upset results against recently faltering and injury-hit Forest and Arsenal; with the huge lift of the table-bonus, these two look much more promising 'Assistant Manager' picks for this week.

The Double Gameweek that never was....

"Double, double toil and trouble...!"

Or..... the Double Gameweek that isn't now going to be!

FPL enthusiasts have been brimming with excitement all year about the prospect of late-season Double Gameweeks - which have traditionally (though wrongly) been viewed as the best and only option for playing the bonus chips (an excitement exacerbated - and complicated! - this year by the appearance of the 'Assistant Manager' as a third bonus chip...).

But really, Double Gameweeks are only a big deal when there are a lot of teams with double-fixtures. And that would only ever happen if all, or very nearly all, of the games rescheduled from the FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend were placed in the same gameweek. Since this year, for the first time, the League programme was suspended on that weekend, and thus no fixtures were lost that week and needing to be rescheduled,.... there was never going to be a BIG Double Gameweek this season.

Yet people had still been fondly hoping that the rescheduled fixtures from the Semi-Final weekend would provide some compensation, create a Double Gameweek of some consequence.

Because the teams facing a Cup quarter-finalist or semi-finalist also lose a match in those weeks, and get a compensating double-fixture, the quarter-finals could produce up to 16 doubling teams (although, typically, at least one club from a lower league usually manages to stay in the competition that far; and occasionally some of the Cup teams may be drawn against each other in the League that week, reducing the number of teams affected by cancelled matches; in some years, only 10 or 12 teams might have got double-fixtures like this); similarly, the semi-finals can affect up to 8 teams (but in some years, only 4 or 6). In the absence of the traditional BIG Double resulting from the FA quarter-finals, everyone was pinning their hopes on a fairly big Double to come out of the semi-finals. And most years in the past, that would have fallen in Gameweek 36 or Gameweek 37.

8 teams having a double-fixture in the same gameweek would give you the chance to select an entire squad of doubling players (although it's not always worth doing: one good fixture is generally better than two tough ones, so there will almost always be some single gameweek players who will produce better returns than doublers). However, sometimes the League will assign the rearranged fixtures to different gameweeks. Heck, sometimes, even if all the games are rescheduled in the same midweek cluster, they may decide to attach the earlier ones to the preceding gameweek, and the later ones to the following gameweek - creating two small gameweeks rather than one big one.

And - oh, woe! - this year, Manchester City and Aston Villa made it to the semi-finals, but were drawn to play against each other in the League that weekend, so.... only 6 teams would have a double this year, rather than 8. And the reschedulings were split over two different weeks. And then, as a final indignity, the League, in its fathomless mischievousness, decided to deem that the Forest v Brentford game was still part of the FA Semi-Final weekend (GW34), even though it had been shifted to the following Friday. and thus wouldn't get a double-fixture after all. WTF??

Oh, and for the first time that I can remember, the bulk of the fixtures were moved forwards rather than back ('anteponed') - into the preceding Gameweek. So, the much-anticipated Double Gameweek 36.... isn't going to happen.

And in the forthcoming Gameweek 33, we have only 4 doubling teams. And of those, only Arsenal (ironically, the only one of the four teams not actually in the FA Cup round) has a good double-fixture. It's not only a very small Double Gameweek, but a fairly SHIT one - with mostly middling teams and unpromising fixtures. Nothing much to get excited about at all: certainly not for the Triple Captain chip (which should have been used long since by now, anyway).

For the Bench Boost, well.... there may be some prospect for getting something out of it. In general, you wouldn't bring in doubling players unless you thought they were going to do better than single gameweek players; and thus you wouldn't expect to have any doubling players on your bench unless your entire squad had double-fixtures (which is always hard to achieve, even if there are a lot of doubling teams to choose from). However, you tend not to get that many points from defenders and keepers, so even the small lift of 2 additional 'appearance points' for a second game-start can be a significant propoortional lift to them; but even with that possibility, you still might not favour them over your regular starters in those positions, even if they only have one match. Given that your bench almost invariably consists of your 4th and 5th defenders and your weakest forward or midfielder, plus the back-up keeper, it might be possible to find doublers for all or most of those slots - and legitimately claim that they still wouldn't be first-eleven choices, even with the extra game. And so your bench might be augmented slightly by the Double Gameweek. (Also, having at least a few doublers in your starting eleven as well slightly reduces your chances of having someone not play at all in the gameweek, and so drag someone off your bench as an auto-sub. That, however, is a very minor consideration.)

But really, whenever you choose to play the Bench Boost, the quality of fixtures is more important than the number of them; and even more important than that is the confidence that everyone - all 15 squad players - will start.... because if anyone is missing, your Bench Boosti s screwed.

Don't get hung up on the Double Gameweek Myth. It's not necessarily the best time to play the Bench Boost - never has been. Double Gameweek 33 looks like it could be a promising opportunity for the Bench Boost (not a great one, but better than nothing); but there may be better options for your squad - it depends on which fixtures you like most, and when you're most confident of having everybody start.

GOOD LUCK!

 

Picks of the Week - for Double Gameweek 24

 

Now that the postponed Merseyside derby has been rearranged for the evening of Wednesday 12th February, and - bizarrely! - that's been attached to Gameweek 24, even though it occurs 10 days after all the other fixtures, instead of Gameweek 25 which it is immediately adjacent to....  it is looking tempting to load up on additional Liverpool/Everton players to take advantage of the fact they'll have two chances to claim points in the same gameweek. Who are the most tempting picks?

Well, obviously everyone has Mo Salah, anyway. Other Liverpool attacking assets are not looking so tempting for this one, as both games are away from home, and against two teams who are usually very strong defensively (Bournemouth have the best home form in the league, and have been starting to look devastating in attack as well in the last few games; and 'upsets' are always on the cards in a derby game). Moreover, there's perpetual doubt about who the favoured starters might be. That has been allayed recently, with Gakpo hitting good goalscoring form, Jota being sidelined with injury again, Chiesa not yet having been fully integrated into the squad and seemingly almost always carrying some sort of injury, and Slot admitting that it's difficult to make effective use of Darwin Nunez when Liverpool find themselves up against a 'low block' most of the time; the preferred trident is, for now, fairly obviously Gakpo-Diaz-Salah. However, this is a bit rough on Luis Diaz, who is much more at home on the left flank than working in the middle, and doesn't often look that much of a goal threat when played as the No. 9. Moreover, both he and Gakpo are very likely to have to share minutes with Nunez and Chiesa, and can expect to be subbed off quite early, even if they start both games. 

Because of his fine recent form (5 goals and 4 assists in the last 7 games), I would consider Cody Gakpo as an additional attacking asset for the double. But you have to consider that Chris Wood, Alexander Isak, and Yoane Wissa also have very promising fixtures this week - so, even with two opportunities to score, Gakpo might not in fact do as well as any of these, and using transfers to replace one of them with Gakpo would be a bit extravagant, if you only fancy him as a short-term hold. (It was announced the next day that, if they reach the Final of the League Cup, Liverpool's GW29 fixture against Villa would be moved forward rather than backward, to Wednesday 19th February. Of course, they have to get past Spurs in the second leg of the semi-final first. And it is uncertain whether the League would attach that midweek make-up fixture to GW25 or GW26. But there is a very good chance that Liverpool will now be doubling in successive weeks, or at least twice very close together, so that will probably tip the balance in favour of bringing in a player like Gakpo.)  

The other Liverpool option I'd consider - a bit more left-field, a bit more 'differential' - is attacking midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai, who has been looking in great form recently; and who, with Curtis Jones currently carrying an injury, is probably a little bit less of a minutes-risk than Gakpo or Diaz. (As above, I probaby wouldn't have fancied him just for these two fairly unpromising GW24 fixtures; but the possibility that he might get a double in GW25 or GW26 makes him a much more attractive punt.)

However, I think that, in what should be quite tight, cagey games, Liverpool defensive assets are to be preferred. Trent Alexander-Arnold has been looking more threatening in attacking situations recently, and obviously has an edge as a prospect for additional contributions. However, he hasn't been delivering these nearly as frequently or consistently this year, and I really don't think he earns his extra transfer cost. I prefer Ibrahima Konate over either Virgil Van Dijk or Alexander-Arnold, because he'll probably return the same points for considerably less money; although there is a slight worry that he is reportedly still suffering occasionally with a long-standing problem in one of his knees, and may sometimes need a rest when the fixtures stack up close together. I think I'd be willing to take the chance on him here, though, as the weekend game preceding the second fixture is only an FA Cup tie against Plymouth, for which many regular first-teamers can probably be safely omitted.  Robertson and Tsimikas have been sharing minutes a bit recently, so both are a risky choice for the double; however, they - or perhaps even Trent's understudy, Conor Bradley - might be worth a punt if you're chasing that elusive 'differential' advantage.

The top pick for me, though, would be goalkeeper Alisson - who has a pretty good chance of two clean sheets... or at least of making lots of saves, if these opponents do prove more dangerous than Liverpool fans hope/expect.... which will give him an edge over the defenders. Moreover, if you can afford a premium keeper, I'd say Alisson is the best choice for the rest of the season. Liverpool's defensive record has been outstanding; and he's very likely to have at least two more double gameweeks, by way of reaching the League Cup Final and the FA Semi-Final.

Similarly with Everton, they have had a mostly very solid defence this season, but have struggled badly for goals themselves, so I would favour defensive assets. Vitalii Mykolenko would be the preferred option from the back-four, I think, because of his potential to offer an occasional attacking contribution as well; though the central pair, perhaps especially young Jarrad Branthwaite, would also be strong possibilities. Ashley Young had been having an outstanding season, but is, alas, too old to be really reliable, and appears to have lost the start now; and the selection at right-back is probably too uncertain to punt on - I'd stick with Mykolenko.

As with Alisson, Jordan Pickford is probably the most inviting pick from the whole team - because he'll almost certainly pick up a lot of 'saves' points if they do get a bit battered in one or both games, but surely also has a good chance of at least one clean sheet. And with Everton starting to show signs of improvement under David Moyes, he's probably a decent keeper pick for the rest of the season. [There's a lot to be said, actually, for getting both Alisson and Pickford - if you have the transfers to spare - and stacking your bench with Everton players for a Bench Boost this week.]

Some people were getting excited about Dominic Calvert-Lewin as an attacking prospect; but his goalscoring form has always been too erratic to be persuade me of his worth. And anyway, it looks as though he's now going to be out for several weeks with a hamstring injury. I much prefer Iliman Ndiaye or Beto as forward options for that club anyway, and they'll have more responsibility for goals placed on them in Calvert-Lewin's absence. Ndiaye has been consistently impressive this season - very pacey, very skillful, a cool finisher - but has usually been played out wide, and a bit too deep to have much impact around the box. I am hopeful that he might be deployed further forward now; I think, in fact, he could probably fulfil the No. 9 role - although Beto will probably be preferred for that. However, it does look as if he's taking over from Calvert-Lewin on penalties - so, that's a major point in his favour.

I could have been excited about the possibilities of Dwight McNeil, if he'd been able to play in these two fixtures; but with him needing surgery on his troublesome knee, he's now likely to remain out for quite some time. The only other midfield option who might be worth a thought is Abdelaye Doucoure, who's a very dependable central midfielder - and someone who does come up with the occasional goal. And against currently dismal Leicester, he might get an opportunity to do that.

And DON'T FORGET The Boycott.  That damned new 'Assistant Manager' chip is in play now. So, I urge you all to quit the game in protest as soon as possible, ideally during the coming week; or at least commit to refusing to use the chip, and criticise and complain about it online as much as possible.

#QuitFPLinGW23         #DownWithTheNewChip