A-spurning we will go!

 

I had thought that the England squad in the run-up to this summer's World Cup couldn't hold many - any?! - surprises. Thomas Tuchel and I seemed to be on pretty much exactly the same page in relation to the general approach and the particular selections. Heck, it had started to seem that, for once, maybe the whole country was on pretty much the same page: it looked as though the squad was essentially going to pick itself.

But where would be the fun in being the manager of England if you couldn't mess with people's heads just a little bit, stir up a bit of a kerfuffle among the punditry with a few.... surprising (baffling, irritating) choices of player??  And he's certainly done that with the current squad for the two warm-up friendlies against Uruguay and Japan over the next few days - effectively a 'long list' of 35 players, which will be whittled down into the 26 to go forward to the USA this summer. A few big names have been mercilessly spurned; while a few others have been given a slightly unexpected lifeline.

Nothing really too earth-shattering, but deserving of some brief comment, nevertheless.

And this is somewhat of a specialist topic of mine. Spurning, that is. Last month, atter being turned out of my current home with barely two-and-a-half weeks' notice by a bonkers landlady, I was left desperately scrabbling to find a new roof over my head in a matter of days. And the first four places I set my heart on... all spurned me. The nicest of them, in fact, initially accepted me; only 24 hours later was I sheepishly informed that the husband of the lady I'd spoken with had supposedly let the place to someone else behind her back on the same morning I'd gone for my viewing... With employment, it's become even worse: I have been turned down for every single job I've applied for in the last five years - must be several dozens of them now. At the end of last year, I somehow managed to get turned down for a trio of jobs in Myanmar; and, you know, it can't be easy to find folks who are willing to work in Myanmar at the moment, let alone who are able to relocate there at a moment's notice from a neighbouring country. (In fact, it's even worse than that: four quickfire spurnings for Myanmar jobs!! One of those employers actually invited me to reapply, and then blew me off again...)  And, my oh my, I've lost count of the number of women over the years who've told me something like, "Oh, I wish you'd asked me out sooner - but I've just started seeing someone else."

So,.... the spurned and I have... an affinity.

Here, then, a quick review of Herr Tuchel's latest spurnings (and non-spurnings)....

Goalkeepers

Unexpected inclusions: Aaron Ramsdale, Jason Steele

Obviously the three for the actual World Cup squad does 'pick itself' in this position: Jordan Pickford is an unassailable first choice, Dean Henderson is by some margin the 'best of the rest', and Jamie Trafford is the promising young pretender. I have no gripe with these additional two per se. In fact, I'm really pleased to see Steele getting some recognition at kast (there is talk that he's being lined up to go to America as a member of the coaching staff or practice partner on the goalkeeping team, rather than a member of the playing squad); he's a player I've long admired; but, you know, he hasn't really been a regular first team starter in a dozen years or so! And Ramsdale, for me, is a nearly-not-quite kind of player: many excellent qualities, but somehow seems to lack the 'star power' to make that final step up in rank; and, given that he has only very recently - and perhaps temporarily - displaced Nick Pope as the starter at Newcastle, he's not bringing a lot of top-flight experience with him. I would have preferred to give a vote of confidence to Pope, or to give a first taste of senior squad involvement to one of the young up-and-comers like Matthew Young or James Beadle.

Unexpected spurnings:  Nich Pope

He has had a number of injury problems over the past few years. And he had made a few bad mistakes in recent games. But I suspect there's some other issue going on behind the scenes at St James's, some deeper injury issue or perhaps some kind of personal problem, because his performance level really didn't seem problematic enough to warrant dropping him - on the eve of a penultimate World Cup training camp. And Tuchel has included plenty of other players who are not current starters; so, that can't be the only reason poor Pepe didn't make the cut here. On ability and past experience, I feel Pepe deserved to remain a part of our squad - if only as a fringe selection who's never likely to get near a start (nor, with the rise of Trafford, even to make the final squad, in all probability); I fear there must be some other factor behind his exclusion.

Defenders

Unexpected inclusions: Harry Maguire, John Stones, Fikayo Tomori, Jarrell Quansah,... and Ben White!

I wouldn't dispute Maguire's inclusion on simple merit: he has been a giant of the England team for several years now; and he finally seems to be rediscovering something like his best form with Carrick's suddenly rejuvenated Manchester United. However,... I feel his time with England is past. Guehi and Konsa are now clearly, rightly, our default starting pair in central defence. And, after so many years of being the 'main man', I can't see Harry adapting to a peripheral 'cheerleader' role in the dressing room, in the manner of the extraordinarily selfless Conor Coady. Maybe it can be useful to have him involved at this training and preparation stage; and maybe it's a smart idea to keep him sweet, to keep him onboard, just in case we might need him as a starter in America because of injuries elsewhere. But I really can't see taking Maguire to the World Cup.... 

Similar qualms might apply to John Stones. But I'd be happier taking him along in the summer, because of his versatility as an all-around 'utility player', able to fill in at full-back or even as a holding midfield player, if we get hit by some awkward injuries. Moreover, I don't think he's such a 'big personality' in the dressing-room as Maguire, and after being on the sidelines so much at City in recent years, he's more likely to be able to accept a peripheral role in the squad with quiet good grace, and even perhaps with gratitude. It's just a pity that he's had so few first-team minutes this season.

It's nice to see Quansah and Tomori getting a look-in; proof that going to play on the continent, although it might remove you from the consciousness of the English sporting press and the public, need not exclude you from the England manager's thoughts (although Tomori hasn't got much of a look-in since he moved to Milan five years ago...). Quansah, in particular; I've always felt that he showed a lot of promise; and I think Slot's abrupt rejection of him may prove to have been one of his biggest blunders (along with spurning Harvey Elltiott, and pissing Mo Salah off; and buying Isak straight after buying Ekitike; and buying Frimpong and Kerkez when there was no obvious place for them in the squad or the style of play; and...); it's been great to see him blossoming since his move to Leverkusen this year. However, you suspect they might only be getting this chance because of the recent injuries to Reece James and Trevoh Chalobah; and probably neither will actually go to the World Cup. [And poor Quansah has apprently been denied his chance now, owing to a thigh-strain.]

I'm glad to see Ben White involved again at last - even if it is only after a long list of injury withdrwals. After such a long, self-imposed exile, it may be impossible for him to fully integrate himself again and regain the trust of teammates and fans. But, frankly. if Reece James isn't fit, he'd be starting for me! Diminiutive, injury-prone Livramento doesn't yet quite have the experience for the biggest stage, I don't think; Djed Spence neither; and we're short of other options in that position.

Justified spurning: Trent Alexander-Arnold

I went into some detail around 18 months ago why I felt Trent was not enough of an all-round player to fit in most teams, including the England one. Unfortunately, my view still hasn't changed. And a difficult first season at Real Madrid hasn't been the best platform to recommend himself to Tuchel. This is the decision which is going to most inflame the punditry, no doubt; but I think our manager is spot on. Not all great players have a place in the national team; they need to be a good tactical fit with the rest of the talents around them - and I don't think Trent can be that.

Unfortunate spurnings: Jarrad Branthwaite, Myles Lewis-Skelly

Branthwaite, I suppose, just hasn't had many minutes so far this season. But unless he's actually got a current injury problem, I would have included him here. He is the most promising young left-sided centre-back in the country (the best, really; since Guehi isn't naturally left-sided, has just fashioned himself a quirky niche role playing in that position off his wrong foot), and so needs to be developed as a potential starter, regular first-back up in that position. Lewis-Skelly just hasn't been given any minutes by Arteta this season; but he made such a promising start to his England career last year, I think there should be a case for keeping him involved as much as possible - even if he's doubtful for inclusion in the final squad.

Midfielders

Unexpected inclusions: Jordan Henderson, Phil Foden, Anthony Gordon

Henderson, I suppose, is still useful to have around as an elder statesman, involved for his experience and leadership presence, in this expanded, 'training camp' squad; but it would be a bit of a travesty if he went to the World Cup as well, when he clearly seems to be incapable of playing regular top-level football in closely back-to-back games any more.

I suppose I'm glad enough to see some loyalty being shown to Foden and Gordon, despite their thus-far very underwhelming seasons. However, I do worry that there is some serious underlying problem with Foden that causes Pep to keep dropping him; and, if there isn't, I fear this lack of confidence from his manager may have broken him. He has consistently failed to make an impact on the international stage for some years; and I can't see him deserving another chance now, in a World Cup, when he's obviously not likely to get near a start ahead of Palmer and Bellingham and Eze. Although I like Gordon's pace and attitude, he's had such a lacklustre season so far that he probably ought to lose out to Madueke, and even perhaps his clubmate Harvey Barnes, in the final squad - unless he finishes really hot over the remaining seven games.

Unfortunate spurnings:  Alex Scott, Rico Lewis, Lewis Miley

I'm glad, at least, to see Adam Wharton get another call-up - although I rather fear that he'll be cut from the final 26-man squad. However, I think Alex Scott has been playing more than well enough for Bournemouth to merit inclusion again as well (he acquitted himself well enough in November's squad). Miley and Lewis, I suppose, haven't been getting enough first-team football with their clubs this year; but they are such outstanding talents that I would have liked to see them included in an expanded squad like this, to encourage their development for the future. If they can find a manager who will play them regularly, they should be in contention for the 2028 Euros, both terrific young players.

Culpable omission:  Morgan Gibbs-White

OK, this is the one selection in this super-sized squad that really gets my blood boiling. There is a strong case that Gibbs-White should be the first back-up to Palmer in the No. 10 role for us - ahead of Morgan Rogers or Phil Foden. He certainly deserves to be given the chance to make that case in this squad.

Forwards

Unexpected inclusions: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dominic Solanke, Marcus Rashford

Solanke I can see: I like his pace, workrate, and versatility. Even though he's only just back from a long injury, and is having a torrid time with Championship-bound Spurs,... I think he is a profile of player we probably need in the squad. And I suppose it's again nice to show some loyalty to Marcus Rashford, after good service to England over a number of years. But, after a promising start at Barca, things seem to have slowed down for him rather; and he really hasn't been scoring many goals for them. And for me, I'm afraid, he's always going to fall uncomfortably between two stools: he has many of the elements of a great winger and of a great centre-forward... without actually being either one. Calvert-Lewin I just don't get; yes, he's probably having his best season ever - but it's still not quite good enough: he's inconsitent, injury-prone, and just not 'international class'.

Unfortunate spurnings: Ollie Watkins, Danny Welbeck

These two very nearly earned the 'culpable' tag as well! I think the omission of these two - in favour of the far less impressive Dominics - could prove costly to our World Cup campaign. Watkins has had a very subdued season; but I think that's been mainly down to Villa's patchy form and lack of regular service to him. He's still been working hard for the team, and looking sharp on the rare occasions when  a decent chance has presented itself. He's a better complement to Harry Kane as a back-up option than any of the other contenders, I think; and he has a very promising rapport with Morgan Rogers, which could make the pair of them a dangerous substitution option in games where we're struggling to find a breakthrough. Welbeck has had a terrible injury record through the years, and, yes, he's getting a bit long in the tooth for international football now; but he's always been an outstanding striker, and he is having one of the best seasons of his career - he certainly deserved a chance here, over the perennially flakey Calvert-Lewin... or, probably, Rashford too.

So, not a terrible squad, by any means: very solid, and overall much as expected. But there are just a few rather dodgy choices - decisions that fill me with a slight unease about what might happen when it comes to naming the final World Cup squad.

A little bit of Zen (87)

"Where is the wisdom that we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?"

T.S. Eliot

“Where is the insight to be found in endless statistics?”

GW

Which is not to say that there is nothing useful to be found in statistics. But you have to be smart about where you look.

Clear as MUD

 

I have long been vexed and perplexed by the lack of clarity about the definitions of key game actinos used in compiling football statistics in the modern game. FPL's own website offers no help on this at all.

Then, a little while ago, I finally turned up this page on the Stats Perform website (the parent company of Opta, the dominant player in the football stats industry now, responsible for most of the figures FPL uses to determine its points allocations). And guess what - that's really of very little help either. The supposed 'definitions' are very short, often very vague - and offer no illustrative examples of how they're applied to actual game situations.

One of the biggest problems with football statistics (one of many...) is that we don't really know exactly what they're counting most of the time. And, even worse, it appears that the stats compilers themselves don't have a very clear idea about it. This is why you should approach all statistics with extreme caution.

Evil genius??

The estimable Adam Clery quickly produced a video explaining exactly how Pep Guardiola managed to control Arsenal so thoroughly in Sunday's League Cup Final, and win the game so comfortably.

Watching that, it occurred to me that, if the great man had indeed figured out such an insuperable masterplan for thwarting his closest English rivals,.... had he not perhaps revealed it too early??  The League Cup is a nothing trophy; this kind of tactical dominance would have been far more valuable if deployed as a deadly surpriise in the crucial Premier League clash between the two clubs looming on the 19th of April. These tactics aren't likely to work so well - or at all - a second time, particularly as Arsenal have four weeks to work out a response.

But then I thought.... perhaps the wily old fox also knows how Arteta is likely to respond, and he already has a second, even more cunning masterplan worked out for that crunch game at The Etihad??

I wouldn't put it past him.

But then again, perhaps the great advantage of deploying this masterstroke now was showing everyone else how to beat Arsenal? If Arteta can't work out good solutions quickly, a lot of the games he faces in the league run-in period could suddenly be a lot more challenging than he'd anticipated.

Or perhaps...., well, perhaps Pep's major concern was not with any of this, but purely with the potential psychological impact of achieving such a dominant win over his arch-rival two months from the end of the season. Even if the manner of this victory is probably going to be unrepeatable, for City or anyone else, it will have spooked the shit out of Arsenal - and maybe that's enough. They had been starting to look dauntingly self-confident; that self-belief has now been dented.

We've always known that Pep is on a higher plane than most in his perception of the game, and his ability to mould revisions in tactics for particular games, particular opponents. But does that mental acuity also extend to the longer term, to being able to plan out a succession of matches, the course of an entire league campaign??  We may be about to find out.

Most people these days use the terms 'tactics' and 'strategy' completely interchangeably; but in the military context, there is a clear and important distinction. I recall an old college buddy of mine, who rose to quite a senior rank in the British Army, once summed it up like this: "Tactics is how you lose a battle. Strategy is how you lose a war."

Has our Pep just revealed himself to be not merely a tactical genius but a strategic one also?? And if this grand ploy truly is strategic - will it end in failure or success? Time will tell. There's still a fair bit of life in this title race.

A LONG 'vacation'

 

Good gracious, what is this??

Thanks to the odd scheduling quirk that we have an international break this week, followed by the Quarter-Finals of the FA Cup on the first weekend of April, we're now faced with nearly three weeks without any Premier League football!

Since the quarter-finals of the European competitions don't kick off until 7th/9th April (and only 5 of our 9 participating clubs are still involved there, after a disastrous 'Round of 16' in the Champions League), I imagine the 14 Premier League sides no longer in the FA Cup will be taking a nice warm weather break somewhere around the Mediterranean as soon as everyone's back from the internationals. (Spurs and Newcastle, out of Europe and the Cup, can take a proper holiday....)

I can't recall such a long interruption to the League schedule ever happening before. It's really a bit too long of a break, I fear - too disruptive of regular fitness and tactical preparation routines, likely to lead to some odd hiccups in form when the League resumes. But... time enough to worry about all of that next month!

After the relentless FPL onslaught of the last few months - often two games a week since early December, and endless injury problems as a result - it will be NICE to have a little bit of a rest from it all.

I feel like a song to celebrate this welcome 'time off'. Here's an old favourite from my childhood, Bing Crosby and the cast performing 'Busy Doing Nothing' from the charming 1949 film adaptation of 'A Connecticut Yankee At King Arthur's Court'. This upload to Youtube has combined the song with a montage of clips from classic comedy duo Laurel & Hardy.

That's better. I feel quite jolly now!

And, darn it, that chorus punchline might be the most Zen thing I've ever posted on here:

We'd like to be unhappy,

But we simply don't have the time.

Keeping oneself occupied is the secret to a contented and fulfilled life. That might be just that little bit harder for the next two-and-a-half weeks...

TOO MUCH of a bad thing?

 

My favourite Geordie football analyst, Adam Clery, dropped a new video last week, examining whether and why the Premier League is proving a very dull watch this year. (Yes, it is, but....)

Although he highlights a number of problems - injuries, fatigue, and the increased use of rotations and substitutions to try to deal with this; and widespread stalemate in the tactical landscape at the moment - he also offers the useful corrective observation that... this is not completely new. Our football has always had a lot of shit elements: 'dark arts' in running down the clock, stifling defensive tactics, dour tactical struggles resulting in sterile, low-scoring games - these have always been with us. Adam reminds us that Arsenal's last title-winning side. the celebrated 'Invincibles' of 22 years ago, while they pulled off a few thrilling wins, sometimes against their biggest rivals, well, they also ground out an awful lot of bore-draws in that long unbeaten run.

This video suggests that, although this is indeed a rather disappointing season in many ways, there's also a major issue of perspective at play - making it seem much worse than it is. These days, it's possible to see every Premier League game in full - if you have the time and the financial resources available to you. It's certainly become quite accessible for big fans to watch every minute of every one of their club's matches - an experience that in the not-too-distant past was available only to the relatively small numbers of supporters who were able to attend every single match, home and away, in person. There's also a lot more discussion and punditry available now, not only on the initial satellite and terrestrial TV coverage, but on the many analytical Youtube shows like Adam's. And then, of course, there's our modern digital environment, where reactions to matches are instantly - and endlessly - shared through social media platforms; and, alas, it is very much the essence of this media environment to fixate upon the negative more than the positive.

So,.... maybe modern football wouldn't seem so bad if we watched a bit less of it??

I'm not convinced about that. But we'll have a little chance to put that proposition to the test during the three-week hiatus in the Premier League schedule that now yawns before us.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 31

 

The disruption of four teams suffering a Blank Gameweek was the major curveball for FPL this week (and, of course, that wasn't - or shouldn't have been - at all unexpected; it should have been planned for weeks out). And there was a fair bit of fatigue evident, after a week of hugely consequential midweek games in the European competitions for 6 of the 16 sides playing this weekend.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded: 

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Manchester United have a good case that Amad Diallo had been briefly held back in the area and should have received their second penalty of the evening from referee Stuart Attwell. The oversight was compounded by the fact that Bournemouth immediately broke down the other end and won a penalty of their own (which also resulted, rightly enough, in the sending-off of Harry Maguire) to tie the score again. So, this decision turned the result of the game. To be fair, all three penalty shouts in the game were rather similar, and all kind of 50/50: a hand placed on the upper arm or shoulder of the attacker, only briefly and without much force (well, the Jimenez foul was straightforward, and extended tug on the shirt, but the other two were both brief hand-on events, which can be very hard to judge), the victim seeming to exaggerate their reaction, twistng violently off-balance and going down. If the referee happens not to have noticed the fleeting illegal contact, he might suppose that the attacker is merely 'simulating'. However, the TV pictures gave a much clearer view, so it is a mystery why VAR did not intervene here.

It really looked as if Danny Welbeck should have had a penalty too, when a stumbling Konate clearly through his arm out across the forward's midriff to prevent him reaching the ball. VAR does not seem to want to have anything to do with penalty decisions these days.

Tight/dubious offsides: Welbeck looked just off for his second goal, but it was allowed - and we never saw an SAOT picture to justify the call. We don't like to see goals ruled out on super-thin margins; but, unfortunately, the whole decision process in inspiring zero confidence at the moment.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: 

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries:  Alisson and Mo Salah were missing for Liverpool, after picking up muscle problems in the Champions League game on Tuesday. Romeo Lavia was subbed off just short of the hour (probably no-one owns him in FPL, but it's a worrying sign that Rosenior may be prone to early substitutions). Xavi Simons was left on the bench by Igor Tudor.  

Malick Thiaw was unexpectedly omitted from the starting lineup in favour of Sven Botman - but came on for the last half-hour or so; time enough to concede two goals and return a nul-pointer. That had a big impact for FPL, since he was already a fairly popular defender pick, but had more than 500,000 new managers come in for him this week as a short-term replacement for blanking players like Gabriel, Timber, O'Reilly and Guehi.

Near misses:  Igor Jesus nearly scored an own-goal early on, when an attempted back-headed clearance looped on to the crossbar. Mathys Tel let fly a dipping drive from distance that was brilliantly tipped on to the crossbar by a flying Matz Sels. In the second-half, just-returned-injury Lucas Bergvall managed to race in unmarked on to a square-ball to the back-post - but was unable to put his shot on target.

Newcastle started brightly, and Elnnga had a great chance for them in the opening minutes, blasting a powerful header only inches over the bar. A little later, a long-range curler from Chemsdine Talbi was only just finger-tipped away from the top corner by Ramsdale at full stretch, one of the saves of the weekend.

Big misses/big saves: Mathys Tel let fly a dipping drive from distance that was brilliantly tipped on to the crossbar by a flying Matz Sels. And the Forest keeper made another good stop near the end, from a strong Solanke drive from the edge of the area. But apart from that, Spurs were barely in the game: indeed, the BBC highlights made it look as though they might easily have lost 5-0 or 6-0 - they are starting to look like Dead Men Walking.

Konstantinos Mavropanos headed clear from under his own crossbar twice - to keep West Ham in the game against Villa. And a screaming 30-yard drive from Ross Barkley had to be fingertipped over the top by Mads Hermansen.

Outstanding goals: John McGinn's deft 20-yard curler was the 'Goal of the Week'; although Harry Wilson's was a close second, and we also saw very nice finishes from Danny Welbeck, Zian Flemming, and Beto.

Outstanding performances: Harry Wilson once again had a bit of a stormer.

Big mistakes: The usually dependable Lewis Dunk gifted Liverpool an equaliser with a ridiculous back-header that played in Kerkez behind him for an easy goal.

Bad luck/good luck: Hugo Ekitike had to go off after just a few minutes, apparently with a dead-leg (although it did not appear that there had been muvh if any contact made with the Brighton player; I wondered if perhaps he'd jarred ot twisted his knee in spinning away from the challenge).

FPL weirdness: I usually restrict these weekly roundups to what's happened on the pitch (and the FPL points allocations related to that), but.... this week there do seem to have been a lot of problems elsewhere - with the FPL website. I've seen numerous complaints in the last few days about Free Hit changes having failed to be acknowledged in the gameweek summary (annoying; but probably to the victims' ultimate advantage, since playing the chip this week was almost certainly a huge mistake), or once or twice about a Free Hit having apparently been shown as activated when the manager had not chosen that (seems unlikely, but.... who knows? The FPL Gnomes are endlesssly inventive in contriving new ways to screw up our beloved game....). And one of my best friends - who I suppose I must believe - insists that his weekly team selection was 'forgotten': not such a disaster as it might have been, since he'd already made the necessary transfers to ensure he had bench cover for his blanking players (and they would all be subbed in automatically, even if FPL had ignored his chosen starting order); but he'd wanted the captain's armband on Wilson rather than Palmer, so that cost him a valuable 7 points. If this was indeed a ccmmon type of glitch this week, many managers will no doubt have suffered even more heavily from it (although I would think that a majority were probably banking on Bruno Fernandes as captain, last week and this). 

I have encountered this exact glitch quite often in the past myself, a team selection being initially acknowledged, but then somehow 'erased' again at the start of the gameweek; but I haven't suffered it for some years now. I believed that it was the result of the FPL servers getting overtaxed in the last hour or so before deadline, so started avoiding last-minute team selection - seeing it as an essential precaution. (Of course, that might just be a superstition of mine. I don't suppose FPL would ever let on if this were a known problem; so there's really no way we can ever know for sure.)

I'm afraid we must accept that, in addition to all the randomness regularly inflicted on us by team coaches and the members of PGMOL, there are times when we can't even rely on the game itself to reliably record our teams for us.

Unexpected results: Liverpool losing is not really a 'surprise' any more; but Chelsea getting such a thorough spanking from Everton was a bit of a turn-up. A derby game is always tough to call; and, given Newcastle's yo-yo form this season, their tendency to be lacklustre after a big European game, and their poor record over the past decade against Sunderland, a defeat for them, even at home, was not really unexpected either; although the extent of their capitulation - after a promising start - was perhaps a bit of a surprise.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' at least includes Bruno Fernandes and Harry Wilson this time; and in a gameweek with so many forced squad changes for everyone, probably quite a lot of people would have been starting Kelleher, Welbeck, and Keane as well; although the latter was eventually edged out of the lineup by 'randoms' like Pinnock and Bijol, and it's still a pretty oddball collection overall. Moreover, these 'non-random' stars of the week were in a lot of squads anyway (especially Fernandes, Wilson, and Kelleher), so it's difficult to see how anyone will have gained much advantage from playing the Free Hit or Wildcard - unless they got very lucky with some of those less expected big returners! Thanks to a good haul for the popular captaincy pick, Bruno Fernandes, and excellent defensive returns for Everton, Brentford, Leeds, and Villa, the global average isn't nearly as bad as it might have been, but still a pretty meagre 38 points. I see from scanning the mid-sized leagues I'm in that the points distribution this week is particularly skewed: the great majority of managers are around or somewhat below the global average; and quite a lot are way down in the teens or single-digits. However, there is a very long thin tail, with some people having picked up a number of those unpredictable good hauls, just from having brought in new players fairly randomly for short-term cover in the blank gameweek; quite a few people seem to have managed something in the 50s or lower 60s, and that looks like a very good score this week; but a fortunate few somehow managed to get up into the 70s and 80s, and a handful even scraped above the 100-point threshold (though not by much...).

Of course, there is an increased likelihood of this kind of thing happening in a gameweek in which everyone is being forced to make multiple changes, but this unusually high number of completely unforeseeable good returns has made this an even more chaotic gameweek than most of us anticipated. And then, on top of all those wildly unpredictable hauls, we also seem to have seen a large number of FPL website glitches possibly robbing some people of some of their selections for the week; I don't know that there's any way to verify this, or to estimate the scale of it - but I've seen so much griping about it online, I'm fairly sure it has been occurring at a significant level this week. Even if we did know for sure how many people had been affected by problems like this, it's still difficult to quantify its impact in terms of the 'luck' factor I usually try to address in these posts - since I've thus far focused them exclusively on incidents in the game action. However, I do feel that if there has been a significant amount of FPL letting its managers down through 'losing' their team changes, that probably ought to be worth at least another 1 or 2 points added to the weekly 'Luck-o-Meter' total; but since we don't really know if it happened or not (I'll keep my eyes peeled for further reports, and possible conclusive evidence - or even an admission of fault from FPL?!). 

The large number of good returns from random players (in a week in which their ownership was likely to be - randomly! - higher than usual) probably ought to be worth a couple of extra 'Luck-o-Meter' points too; but again, since I haven't previously thought about how to quantify and incorporate this sort of factor into these weekly roundups, I'll refrain from making any adjustment for that either. Not much terrible refereeing, at least, so perhaps only a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. But it really feels as though, in practical terms, it ought to be a lot more - especially if there really have been a lot of screw-ups with the FPL website this week!!

This time, IT MATTERS

 

My scorn for the League Cup knows no bounds. 

I have always - always; ever since I was a child - felt that a second domestic cup competition is otiose, and ridiculous. I am rarely even aware of the earlier rounds being played, and I seldom bother to watch the Final (except in that one glorious year, back in the 1980s, when second-tier Oxford United managed to win it - one of the great small-club triumphs in English football history; just a pity it wasn't in the proper cup...). 

The tournament's flimsy credibility hasn't been helped by having a succession of unlikely sponsors insist on splashing their name on the trophy - a somewhat contemptible one in the gambling company Littlewoods, along with simply ludicrous ones like its current backer - the energy drink that isn't Red Bull; and, back in the day, the Milk Marketing Board supported it for a long while: calling it the 'Milk Cup' made it sound like some sort of confectionary...). 

My feeling is that the competition could become more useful and relevant - and less of a strain on an already dangerously overstuffed top-flight schedule - if it were restricted to clubs outside the Premier League.

However, we do have an unusually significant match-up in this Sunday's Final: Arsenal and Manchester City, the two teams vying for this year's Premier League title. And the game happens to come at a particularly crucial moment in that title race, as City's challenge seems to be evaporating after they tamely dropped points in their last two games - to allow the leaders to pull out a rather daunting 9-point gap.

I have an inkling, therefore, that this year's League Cup might actually decide the League title as well. City, I think, really, really, really need to win this game - to lay down a marker that they're not giving up the challenge yet, to try to put a bit of a dent in Arsenal's growing self-confidence. They still have a game in hand over their rivals, and they are slated to play them at home in Gameweek 33. If they could win both of those, Arsenal would be facing a very nervy run-in.

But if Arsenal can beat them on Sunday, they'll go to The Etihad in a month's time with no fear - and they'll probably win again there. City NEED to win this game - not for the worthless 'consolation prize' trophy, but to keep the title-chase alive.

So,... I might actually watch the game this year!  [Well, I'll try. Since the UK coverage is on the dreaded ITVX, I very much doubt if I'll be able to get a viable stream.]

[Well, what do you know? ITV seems to have upped its game - at last. It has been so notorious for so long for not having sufficient server capacity to maintain a stable stream on popular live events that I've largely given up even bothering to try it over the last few years. But it worked a treat last night! (Maybe only because comparatively few people are interested in watching the League Cup Final, even when it is between the two best teams in the country??)

I confess, I am pleased to see Arsenal 'wobble' a bit, and City re-energise their title challenge. Arsenal fans should probably be a little worried by the manner of the defeat: their team was completely dominated in the second-half, and had no response. It was a performance so lacking that it suggests they might struggle in a number of the remaining games, not just the crunch match at The Etihad. It is uncertain, though, whether the long wait before they play in the league again will amplify or diminish the psychological impact of this result.

Of course, my man Adam Clery has already put out an excellent video examining how City were able to control the game so emphatically.]

High variance - why this gameweek is likely to make such A BIG DIFFERENCE

 

It's not often a Blank Gameweek hits so hard!

But this season, there are really only two teams that anyone in FPL is likely to be trebled-up on. Arsenal and Manchester City are way out ahead of the field at the top of the table. Almost every other club has lost many key players to injury and/or suffered very up-and-down form; the other would-be title contenders have all had pretty disappointing seasons (though at least Manchester United have rallied strongly since the turn of the year). Arsenal and City are just in a different class to everyone else this year; and they've both reached the League Cup Final.

So, the League Cup Final, which in many years is merely a minor annoyance, this time is a body-blow. More than half of the top dozen or so most popular players in FPL this season are from Arsenal and City. 

Raya is by far the most popular goalkeeper choice; but Donnarumma is 6th, and Dean Henderson (who also has a Blank, because he would have been facing City in the League this weekend) is 8th; even the absence of Wolves's Jose Sa is going to inconvenience well over 1% of FPL managers. So, probably about 45% of managers in FPL are missing their first-choice keeper this week; and quite a few may have found themselves missing both keepers.

And many managers will be missing 4 or 5 others of their regular starters too. If they have been imprudently holding on to some Palace (and/or Wolves!!) players as well, and/or have suffered some additional injury problems, some might be looking at having to make 8, 9, 10 changes this week. Almost everyone is having to make at least 4 or 5 changes.

Think about the consequences of that. In most gameweeks, it's very rare that anyone makes even as many as 3 or 4 changes; most of the time, we get by with only 1 or 2 transfers in a week; quite often - if we've been lucky with injuries - we'll put out a completely unchanged squad.

But this week,... almost everyone is making multiple changes to their starting eleven.

Moreover, in most gameweeks, there is a high degree of similarity between most people's teams (not as much as many people suppose: there is never a clear-and-obvious 'template' eleven...). There's usually a handful of players who are so much better than everyone else in their position category that almost everyone owns them. And at the moment, those players are Gabriel, Timber, Rice, Semenyo, Haaland and O'Reilly (or Nunes). Outside of the TOP TWO, only Bruno Fernandes, Harry Wilson, and Joao Pedro are currently such compelling and almost universally coveted picks.

This week, we have to change out half or three-quarters of our regular starting eleven - and there aren't any particularly obvious replacements to choose from. Almost no-one else has suddenly come into particularly compelling form (Tavernier, possibly; Cunha or Casemiro...); and no-one has a really good fixture this week (Liverpool, Villa, and Spurs appear to have the most over-matched opponents; but they've all been in horrible form in the league recently....). 

So, this week, there is likely to be an exceptionally high degree of dissimilarity between selections, with everyone making multiple changes, and a pretty much wide open choice of what those changes might be... and uncommonly low predictability (because of rocky form and mostly very closely matched fixtures) as to how any of that is going to play out.

Most weeks, we're just buying one or two lottery tickets; this week, we're all buying a whole fistful of them!

And all of that means that there is sure to be an extremely broad spread of points this week. And that, in turn, means more volatility - more chance that you can have an exceptionally poor week and/or that others around you can have an exceptionally good week. Of course, things could work out in your favour; but they could also go very strongly against you. There is going to be exceptionally high volatility in the rankings this week, with a lot of people seeing big swings in their league positions.

Overall, it's almost certain to be an extremely low-scoring week. Many people have used a 'hit' (or several!), spent points to assemble a starting team, and so start off at an immediate disadvantage.Many more are making do with fielding a team that's at least one or two players short. Even more, who've just about got a full eleven, but have little or no cover left on the bench, are going to find that injuries or rotations leave them with less than eleven scoring players.

And, as I already pointed out above, most of the 'best' players are missing from this gameweek; and most of the fixtures that are going ahead don't look particularly promising.

Anyone, however, who does manage to field a full eleven, and hasn't had to spend any 'hits' to do so (or only 1 or 2 of them...) is in a position to achieve a big points-gain on the majority of managers, even without getting a particularly big points total. If the global average is only 20-30 points, a haul of 50 could give you a huge lift in ranking.

* NB;  The prospect of such a powerful points/rank lift should not have tempted anyone to use a Free Hit or Wildcard this week, because those chips will - absolutely definitely - be worth even more a little bit later in the season. Over 160,000 people are on a Wildcard this week, and over 1.3 million are using the Free Hit (according to Google AI, that is; so, it's probably a completely made-up figure - but it does sound plausible). Those folks should get a useful lift this week. But that advantage will almost certainly be wiped out (perhaps wiped out two or three times over) when they are smashed by the even bigger Blank Gameweek we face in GW34, and/or they find that they can't optimise their squad for the last few weeks of the season, when we should have one or two juicy Double Gameweeks.

There is, in fact, quite a good chance that people who played one of those chips won't even do that well out of them this week - because, as I observed already, there's a dearth of obviously in-form players to choose, or inviting fixtures to bet on. Moreover, I tend to think (in my more pessimistic moments, anyway...) that more of our decisions go badly than well (there's more bad luck in the world than good luck!), so making a large number of changes - especially when you don't really need to (many people playing chips are getting tempted to go a little crazy and change almost everyone) - is generally counter-productive. I suspect that, for the most part. people who made the minimum number of changes they could get away with this week will do better than people who splashed out with a chip.

And then.... well, people who chose to play a chip this week (or left themselve 'no choice' but to do so!) are fundamentally not smart managers. We could foresee the Gameweek 31 hazard months ago, and there is absolutely no reason to have been exposed to more than 5 or 6 blanking players this week (a problem that should have been easy to deal with, using a couple of saved transfers and/or hits). So, people who made dumb choices to get themselves into such a mess are also likely to make dumb choices trying to get themselves out of it, and you wouldn't fancy them to do particularly well in this gameweek (they don't deserve to do well).

[I was prompted to these reflections by encountering on one of the FPL forums the other day one of those arrogant oafs who insists on boasting about how good his rank is currently. I mildly pointed out that there was a good chance his rank would slip this week (he was a proud, naive Free Hitter), and he whined that I couldn't possibly have a 'crystal ball' to know that. Well, I didn't claim to know for certain; I'd said 'probably' - it was merely a significant statistical possibility. People in the top few thousands of the rankings are usually insulated from big single-week drops (or rises) in rank, because things get spread out up there: there aren't many other people within a narrow range of points. But that's in a normal gameweek. In a gameweek like this one, with such an exceptionally high variance in likely points returns, there will be a lot of big swings in rank, and even people at the very top of the rankings wno't be immune to them.

As I pointed out to the noxious oaf: There is a difference between WHAT WE CAN KNOW and WHAT WE CAN ONLY GUESS AT. Unfortunately, it is a difference that almost nobody in FPL-land seems to comprehend. 

We can know that there is going to be unusually high volatility in the rankings this gameweek; it just requires a basic understanding of statistics.]

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 31 (25/26)

Arsenal, Manchester City, Wolves and Crystal Palace, of course, have a Blank Gameweek this week - because their League games have been rescheduled to allow Arsenal and City to face each other in the League Cup Final on Sunday. At least, we don't have to worry this week about possibly unexpected rotations ahead of another important European clash - since there aren't any more of those until the beginning of April; indeed, there isn't even any more Premier League until April 10th! However, the teams who played in Europe this week, particularly those who had big games on Thursday - Villa, Forest, and Palace - are likely to be showing signs of weariness from that. And I'd imagine some of the Champions League participants too, probably Newcastle in particular after their emotionally draining double-header against Barcelona, will be a bit depleted by those games, even though they happened on Tuesday. At least there don't seem to have been too many new injuries over the past week; so, hopefully, this can be a fairly brief round-up.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 31?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Jurrien Timber was pulled off just before half-time against Everton last week after suffering a heavy knock, and he wasn't able to take part against Leverkusen on Tuesday. Apparently an ankle problem, though not too serious: Arteta claims to be hopeful that he might be available for the League Cup on Sunday. That might just be the usual 'smoke-and-mirrors', but.... it doesn't seem like a problem that we should be still need to be worrying about for Gameweek 32 in the second week of April.

A fair old injury crisis at the back for poor Chelsea this week: Trevoh Chalobah was stretchered off against PSG on Tuesday with an ankle injury; not as bad as first feared, but could sideline for six weeks or so (enough to put his World Cup chances in jeopardy). Reece James finally pinged his infamous hamstring again towards the end of last week's Newcastle game; still being assessed, but his previous history with this sort of injury doesn't inspire optimism that he'll be playing much further part this season. And Malo Gusto and Benoit Badiashile were both wiped out by illness this week (there's something going around...). Goalie Filip Jorgensen also missed out against Newcastle with a sudden groin issue; and that, apparently has required surgery, which means he's likely to be unavailable for most of the rest of the season (good news, at least, for Robert Sanchez - and anyone who still owns him in FPL).

James Tarkowski was an unexpected absentee last week against Arsenal, having allegedly picked up a late knock in training. Moyes has been oddly enigmatic in failing to give any details at all on what the problem is or how long he might be out for; but if you need to ditch a player to make room for one of your blankers on the bench this week, he's suddenly looking like a prime candidate. (And, given that he's the third highest scoring defender in the game this year, after only the gobsmacking Arsenal pair of Gabriel and Timber, how was he owned by only 11.5% of FPL managers??)

Emile Smith Rowe was another surprise omission last week, having suddenly complained of feeling a muscle problem in training shortly before the game.

Mo Salah is another doubt this weekend, having asked to come off with a quarter of an hour left against Galatasary on Tuesday after feeling stiffness in his leg.

Noussair Mazraoui is another who's been down with illness this week, though Michael Carrick is bullish about him being OK again this weekend (though not a regular starter, anyway!).

Sandro Tonali had to come off with a muscle problem (groin and/or hip??) against Barcelona this week, and looks very doubtful for this weekend.

Sunderland defensive stalwart Dan Ballard (owned by nearly 4.0% in FPL) had to come off against Brighton last week with a tight hamstring; seems not too serious, but makes him a doubt for the derby game. Robin Roefs, however, might be back - at least on the bench - this week.

Yet more injury woes for Spurs: Yves Bissouma (although he hasn't been getting regular gametime this year) missed out at Liverpool last week because of a muscle injury. And Dominic Solanke was unable to take part against Atleti on Tuesday because of a hip problem - although Tudor seems hopeful that he'll have shaken it off in time to face Forest on Sunday.

Wolves - remarkably - have NO PLAYERS listed as injured this week.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Leeds's Gabriel Gudmundsson, sent off for two yellow cards against Palace last weekend, is the only suspension this week. Wow!

Tyrique George is a loanee from Chelsea, so can't play for Everton against them this week.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

A lot of people have been turning against Haaland for his patchy returns in the past couple of months or so. But that's always a high-risk strategy: even if he hasn't scored much recently, he is still the best forward in the league, and playing for the best creative team in the league (well, OK, Manchester United are making a fight of that at the moment; but one of the best creative teams....).

I observed ruefully last week that Spurs players had been looking like poison for a while,... and Liverpool players were suddenly not so very far behind them in the under-performing stakes. But Spurs were immeasurably better at Anfield last Sunday; and Liverpool weren't. But perhaps Liverpool have now turned their form around with a much better performance in the Champions League? (Although, that was only against Galatasaray; and they had a very poor game....)  I'd still treat Fantasy selections from both teams with extreme caution; especially Spurs! But in the last few months, it is Florian Wirtz who's been making Liverpool tick; and now that he's back from injury, we're seeing immediate results. (Having Szoboszlai released from the right full-back role helps enormously too! Although Frimpong still doesn't look at all convincing there, especially defensively.)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Cole Palmer, despite still only looking at around 85% or 90% of full fitness, came very, very close to a 20-point game against Newcastle. And I'm still banging the drum for Marcus Tavernier too; he put on another superb display for Bournemouth - without actually being rewarded with any FPL points (he is now very much due). Dwight McNeil, suddenly back in David Moyes's good books after being in limbo for most of the season, is starting to look pretty tasty too.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!