Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 28

 

Again, we've seen a fair number unpleasant selection surprises this week; and some up-and-down performances from the big teams.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded: Tyler Adams's clumsy challenge on Granit Xhaka, catching his standing leg above the ankle, was very, very close to being a straight red card.

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Alex Jimenez clearly shoved Enzo La Fée firmly in the back, sending him sprawling to the ground in the penalty area; neither the referee nor VAR thought there was 'that much' in it???

Tight/dubious offsides: Heartbreaking for Burnley that Flemming's apparent goal to give them a 4-3 lead over visitors Brentford was ruled out (after an intolerable 3-minute delay) for crosser Jaidon Anthony's shoulder having allegedly been an inch too far forward (to the naked eye, he had looked well on; and decisions really shouldn't be made on such unfeasible wafer-thin margins, anyway - this lunacy has to stop).

.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed:  More galling injustice for poor Burnley when Ashley Barnes's last-gasp equaliser was ruled out (after 4.5 minutes of deliberation by the VAR team) for a supposed handball. If there had been any contact with Barnes's lower-arm, it was so incredibly slight as to be completely inconsequential; but none of the TV pictures gave a clearcut view of this, so a decision was impossible, and VAR had no business to interfere with the referee's on-pitch award of the goal.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries:  Tyrone Mings was a late omission from the Friday night game, having picked up a problem in training.

Brentford keeper Caoimhin Kelleher was missing because his wife had just given birth to twins. (This is the kind of 'personal information' which is almost never generally available ahead of time, and can catch out even the best prepared FPL manager.)

Erling Haaland (owned by two-thirds of FPL managers) was a surprise last-minute omission, after allegedly picking up a knock in training late in the week. [Even worse: an awful lot of people - including my personal FPL nemesis - had made him their captain, but high-scoring Hugo Ekitike their vice-captain,... which turned out extremely fortuitously for them.]

Eddue Howe, not happy with the way things were going in the first-half at St James's, withdrew Ramsey at half-time, and Elanga and Woltemade only 10 minutes into the second-half.

Near misses:  

Big misses/big saves: Dominic Calvert-Lewin was played in behind the City defence by a superb cross from Aaronson, but, with only the keeper to beat, put his effort wide. A little later, Nico O'Reilly was defied by a double-save from Karl Darlow.

Alisson carelessly played the ball to Jarrod Bowen just a few yards out, but the West Ham attacker wasn't able to control the ball and it rebounded off him straight back to the grateful keeper. In the second-half, Gakpo was unmarked as the ball came through to him at the back post, but blazed wide. Alisson pulled off the 'save of the day' to tip over a fierce near-post drive from Crysencio Summerville.

Beto broke away one-on-one with Pope, but smashed his effort against the crossbar (although there was an issue as to whether the ball had gone out of play at the side of the pitch when he first picked it up; I thought not, but this was another instance where, if he had scored, VAR would probably have purported to make this call on a margin of millimetres, when they really had no definite evidence for doing so). And Jordan Pickford produced possibly the 'Save of the Season' to deny Tonali's ferocious 20-yard volley in the dying seconds.

Outstanding goals: 

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: There really wasn't enough power on Ekitike's first strike at goal to have troubled Mads Hermansen at his near-post, but the West Ham keeper somehow completely misread the shot.

Nick Pope fumbled a fairly gentle curler from Dwight McNeil, and then took a long time to recover - allowing Beto to nip in to steal the lead for the visiting team for the second time.

Bad luck/good luck: Thierno Barry got a shove in the back from Lewis Hall as he raced to meet a cross and tumbled to the ground - the ball deflecting into the goal off the back of his thighs as he rolled forwards, entirely without his knowledge: one of the flukiest goals we've seen this season.

FPL weirdness: Antoine Semenyo somehow didn't get close to earning even 1 bonus point - despite scoring the only goal of the game; I've never seen that before.

Cody Gakpo was lucky to be credited with a goal, since his effort looked well off-target, until ricocheting off two West Ham defenders.

Unexpected results: Wolves have been improving in their attacking play under Rob Edwards, but few people would be betting on them to keep a clean sheet - even against a Villa side whose form is starting to nosedive. Bournemouth were lucky to salvage a point against Sunderland, when they should have conceded a penalty early on, and might have been reduced to 10 men. Burnley were absolutely robbed by a couple of atrocious VAR calls going against them. City were incredibly fortunate to claim all the points, and a clean sheet, against a Leeds side who outplayed them for much of the game. Liverpool's result against West Ham flattered them enormously: they were all over the place defensively, and outplayed by their visitors for long stretches of the game.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' after Saturday yet again includes no-one that anybody owns, except Ekitike; and although there have been quite a large number of goals this week, it's looking set to be another in a seemingly endless series of extraordinarily low-scoring gameweeks, with the global average currently at just 23 points. With so many flakey results, and a few egregiously awful decisions, it's already looking at least  a 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' this time.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 28 (25/26)

 

Not too many major new injuries this week, it seems, but.... a fair few minor 'niggles' and uncertainties.

And of course, press conferences on Friday morning (in the UK) won't get widely reported (or at least not written up on the main FPL reference sites like Fantasy Football Scout) until mid- or late afternoon,... which is the middle of the night for folks like me, in East Asia. And dammit, Wolves v Villa is a Friday evening kick-off, so people in my timezone will be struggling to get fully up-to-date... before the extremely inconvenient FPL deadline. If I catch any late-breaking news this evening, I'll endeavour to update here (but, to be honest, I'm more likely to be down the pub!).

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 28?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Bukayo Saka is one of the biggest worries this week, having come off early with a 'knock' in the trouncing of Spurs last week. At least his absence would make room for the impressive Madueke to get more gametime. (And Kai Havertz and Max Dowman are thought to be nearly ready to rejoin the action too. They might also get a look-in on the right side of the forward trio.) Ben White missed last weekend's game owing to an unspecified niggling injury - but he seems to have fallen out of favour as a starter anyway.

Bournemouth's midfield stalwart Lewis Cook felt a problem in his hamstring in trainiing the day before last weekend's game; Iraola hopes it isn't too serious, but it's likely to keep him out this week as well.

Brentford appear to have lost two of their full-back options in quick succession: Michael Kayode missed last week's game with a late training injury, and Aaron HIckey had to come off with a knock in the first-half against Brighton. This might mean that Keane Lewis-Potter, lately more dangerous as an attacker, might have to go back to being a wing-back/full-back.

Carlos Alcaraz was unavailable to face Manchester United on Monday because of a training injury.

Fulham's young Brazilian winger Kevin had to come off with a knock in last week's game against Sunderland, and might be missing for a little while. Antonee Robinson was also a surprise absentee in that game, having apparently suffered an ankle injury late in the previous week's training.

The biggest uncertainty of the week is Florian Wirtz, who's really come into form over the past couple of months or so, and is now owned by 8.5% of managers. He missed last Sunday's game against Forest after straining his back in the warm-up, and remains a doubt; nearly 130,000 have already offloaded him this week.

Lisandro Martinez missed the Monday night trip to Everton with a calf issue, and is expected to be out for at least a couple of weeks. Bryan Mbeumo limped off near the end in that match, but it appears to have been just some cramp, and he's apparently been training again this week.

Jacob Ramsey dropped out of the squad to play Qarabag on Tuesday with a tight hamstring, but apparently scans have revealed nothing seriously amiss, so he might be available again for this weekend.

Sunderland are really in the wars: Nordi Mukiele limped off after just 10 minutes against Fulham last week with a calf-strain, and forwards Romaine Mundle (hamstring) and Brian Brobbey (groin strain) had to withdraw before the end. The little used Dennis Cirkin had also been unavailable because of an injury just before that match.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Wesley Fofana is serving a one-match ban for a second yellow card last week (and is lucky it wasn't more, as his clumsy lunge on James Ward-Prowse was worthy of a straight red).

Ladislav Krejci is also facing a one-match ban for picking up two yellow cards last week (he's rather unlucky, since he appeared to be just clearing the ball upfield because he hadn't heard the referee's whistle, when he earned his second). 

Cristian Romero is now serving the third instalment of a four-game ban (he's had an extra game added on automatically, because his clogging of Casemiro a couple of weeks back was his second red card of the season).

And West Ham's Freddie Potts is serving the second part of a three-game ban.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Pep's midfield rotations are getting more and more worrying: last week, Cherki, Foden, and Reijnders were all left on the bench. It makes you wonder how 'safe' any City picks are. Even Semenyo, I fear, might find himself in a three-way rotation with Cherki and Doku, once the latter is fully fit again.

And I'm afraid all Spurs players are avoid-like-the-plague options at the moment, as any 'new manager bounce' with Igor Tudor seems unliekly to be able to slow their death-spiral into the relegation zone.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Bournemouth's 19-year-old Brazilian winger, Rayan, is in sensational form at the moment; but, given his tender years, I doubt if he'll continue to start every week, now that Marcus Tavernier appears to be fit again.

Although he hasn't come up with a return in the last two games, Dango Ouattara is relishing finally getting a regular start at Brentford, and has come into some useful form in the past month or so (although I'd still probably incline towards Kevin Schade, if taking a second attacking asset from Brentford).

Benjamin Sesko and Martin Gyokeres finally seem to have found their scoring boots - although neither can be relied upon as an invariable starter (Gyokeres, perhaps, is very nearly so; although he might face some competition once Havertz is fully fit again; but, unfortunately, Arsenal are notoriously creating very few open-play chances this year, so even their most promising attacking players aren't as attractive for FPL as all that - if people are still sceptical of Saka, Gyokeres shouldn't be getting anywhere near consideration).

And young Nico O'Reilly, of course, produced the performance of the week last time with a fine brace of goals against Newcastle, and now bears the curse of being the gameweek's most transferred-in player (well, nearly - he is, somehow, being narrowly beaten by Virgil Van Dijk at the moment; they're both closing in on half a million new owners). But, as I just noted above, you really can't trust Pep to field any of his midfielders every week, no matter how well they play.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (83)

 

"Think little about yourself, think deeply about the world."

Miyamoto Musashi

A nomad once more....

I've just endured a rather unpleasantly fraught few weeks (in the real world, rather than the relatively benign realm of FPL), after my batty landlady decided she wasn't going to extend my lease after all (though, of course, one generally assumes that this should be a mere formality; and we did appear to have reached an agreement in principle to go ahead on much the same terms as the past year, back in the middle of January), but dawdled about telling me, and - really - didn't give me any proper notice at all.

Suddenly faced with unexpected homelessness in a little over two weeks, I have had to scramble rather to.... sort out the next phase of my life.

And, since I didn't feel I had enough time to both househunt and pack,... I took this unpleasant surprise as a cue to revamp my life rather dramatically. Instead of packing up my life into boxes and finding another house to rent, I have.... sold (or given away) everything I own, and laid plans to hit the road. As of tomorrow, I shall be a vagabond again.

If I have one greater love in my life than football, it is music. My parents had quite an extensive and diverse collection of records (though mostly rather middle-of-the-road), and a wonderful old 'gramophone' in a walnut chest with which to play them. During my early childhood, I would sit cross-legged on the floor in front of this marvellous device, in utter rapture, for hours at a time. And one of my great favourites from those early listening sessions was this mid-60s hit by the country singer Roger Miller: King of the Road, a defiant celebration of the hobo life - humorous, and oddly inspiring. I often wonder if my love for this song hasn't led me astray in life. Not only am I unafraid of having no fixed abode, no steady income, and few personal possessions; I actually tend to view such a situation as a desirable ideal.

Famous name, obscure origin

Although I have been a lifelong admirer of Pelé, I confess I don't think I had ever known where the celebrated monicker came from. Now we have an answer, in this little biographical summary from the almost always diverting Tifo (a sub-channel of The Athletic magazine's Youtube presence, but far more entertaining and wothwhile than the great majority of their regular content).

For me, those 'greatest of all time' debates never get off the ground. If you were lucky enough to see Pelé in his prime (or even past his prime: I recall some absolutely stunning moments from his time with the New York Cosmos team in the mid-70s), there is no debate: he did everything that the later greats did, but did it more consistently, with more zest, with more athleticism. Everyone since has been inspired by Pelé, everyone has tried to emulate him; a few have come very close, but no-one has surpassed him.

What he did in the 1970 World Cup - and I was a tiny boy at the time, watching on a grainy old black-and-white TV - was other-worldly. I can't think of any other player who has become so celebrated, so beloved for a goal he didn't score - let alone three of them: that magnificent downward header that was somehow spooned around the foot of the post in a 'Save of the Century' from Gordon Banks, the outrageous dummy around the Uruguayan keeper on the edge of the box, and the attempt to lob the Czech keeper from a few yards inside his own half (perfect length on the shot, but it drifted just inches wide of the post). And these were just the stupendous highlights. In every match, just about every time he got on the ball, you held your breath, expecting something magical, something impossible to happen - and very often it did. Watching these performances, I began to understand why he called football the beautiful game; it stopped being merely a sport and transformed into an art.

Nobody's team is ever PERFECT

 

We all want to feel good about ourselves. And we all want to feel good about our FPL team: we want it to be as good as it can be. And - much of the time - we persuade ourselves that it is.

But... as good as it can be is not perfect. And if you delude yourself into believing that it is, that can lead into a dangerous complacency.

How often, really, does any of us get to roll a transfer? Usually no more than a handful of times a season. And even then, we're usually saving them up for 'tactical' reasons, not because we really don't feel our team could use any changes at all; we'd like to use a transfer straight away, but we have judged that being able to make multiple transfers a week or two further on may be even more valuable to us.

Almost always we have a few players who seem to have lost a bit of form, or are stuck in teams whose form has suddenly - and often quite mysteriously - deserted them, or who face a few unpromising fixtures in the coming run of games. And almost always there are other players who've caught our eye with a one or two big performances (though we're probably not yet quite sure if this is really emerging form or just a flash-in-the-pan), players we are starting to covet as possibly better alternatives to some of our current selections. 

And, if we played the game like FPL's dim (probably AI??) 'pundit' The Scout, blithely making unlimited transfers every week, we'd 'fix' all of those potential problems, chase all of those dreams. But that is not the game. We play the game properly: we know that transfers have a 'cost', and that it is very difficult to make back that cost by switching out a decent player who still has a regular start - certainly not within a single gameweek. We use our transfers cautiously, parsimoniously: and almost all of them have to be used to deal with injuries.

And because of that,... not only do we almost invariably have at least a few players, sometimes even four or five or six, who are looking slightly sub-par, players that in an ideal world we'd probably swap out; some of those players might have been clogging up our team for weeks - because we've always had more urgent changes to make with our limited transfers.

So, in practice, because of the harsh realities of this Fantasy game of ours, it is extremely unlikely that any of us will truly get to enjoy the satisfaction of having our team just the way we want it. (Even when we play a Wildcard, we usually get one or two players who immediately suffer an injury or a crash in form. That always seems to happen to me, anyway...)

But even when that rare combination of circumstances does align for us, those happy few times each season when we do seem to have our team just the way we want it,.... that's never going to be 'perfect', is it? 'Perfection' is an impossible ideal. You can drive yourself crazy chasing that phantom. Make do with as good as it can be.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 27

 

A few unpleasant selection surprises again this week; although, at least, not too many new injury disasters to add to our FPL troubles.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Ladislav Krejci's second yellow card was a bit unjust: he clearly thought - rightly - that the ball was still in play, and was trying to clear it upfield (as Strand Larsen closed him down to try and block), and perhaps had not heard (or couldn't believe) that the referee had just blown his whistle because the linesman had wrongly flagged for a throw-in.

Red cards not awarded: Ruben Dias was perhaps slightly lucky to get only a yellow card for hauling back Anthony Gordon's first-half breakaway. Yes, it was way out on the left touchline, but Gordon's got a lot of pace, and there was no-one else between him and the goal.

Fofana's second yellow card might well have been a straight red: his wild lunge caught Ward-Prowse on the instep rather than the shin, but it was violent and out-of-control and could have done some serious damage. Chelsea were very lucky not to get a second defender sent off when Tosin appeared to run across the back of Flemming - briefly grabbing his arm, pushing him in the back, and probably tripping him too (all three contacts might have been too slight on their own to justify punishment, but the combination demonstrated a determined intent to bring the attacker to a halt) - knocking him over when he was clean through on goal.

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Palmer was unfortunate not to get a penalty when flattened from behind by Joe Worrall. The Burnley defender had got a toe to the ball to clear it first, but he was sliding in from a long way back, out of control, and his follow-through into Palmer's Achilles was dangerous, regardless of whether he'd made contact with the ball.

Tight/dubious offsides: Dan Burn had a goal ruled out for a narrow offside: that looked correct, but it was still a bit harsh as he'd been shoved into that position by Ruben Dias.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed:  Randal Kolo Muani's second equaliser for Spurs might have dramatically altered the complexion of the north London derby; and Gabriel's extravagant dive when he felt the slightest touch of the forward's hand on his back was one of the most egregious pieces of 'conning the referee' we've seen in quite a while. This is the kind of incident where VAR is invariably too timid to intervene; but, in the interests of justice, they really ought to.

Macallister's last-gasp winner surely should have been disallowed. Both he and, even more so, Van Dijk (who got in the first header) looked well offside as Szoboszlai curled in his cross; but the SAOT graphic eventually indicated that one of them (not clear which) was supposedly being kept on by the edge of a defender's boot. I simply do not believe that: there is something gravely amiss with this technology - Van Dijk looked 'off' by about a yard.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Foden, Cherki, and Reijnders (all still modestly high-owned in FPL) were all omitted by Pep against Newcastle; Cherki at least came on for half an hour or so, but Foden only got a token few minutes at the end, and Reijnders wasn't used at all.

Brentford's Michael Kayode was a late omission, due to a training knock. And Fabian Hurzeler rested/dropped Baleba and Veltman.

Michael Kayode was a surprise omission, having apparently picked up an injury in training late in the week. Mikkel Damsgaard was surprisingly rested against Brighton, only came on for the last 25 minutes.

Antonee Robinson was missing for Fulham, having complained of an ankle problem in training during the week. Nordi Mukiele limped off after barely 10 minutes, apparently with a calf-strain.

Timber was replaced by Mosquera at Spurs after just 55 minutes.

Lisandro Martinez, troubled with a calf problem, was a late dropout for Manchester United on Monday evening. David Moyes surprisingly preferred Branthwaite to Mykolenko at left-back for that game. And Amad Diallo was subbed off for Sesko a few minutes shy of the hour.

Near misses:  Emi Buendia smashed a post with a curler from the edge of the box.

Ferdi Kadioglu's 25-yard effort crashed against the crossbar - but set up the opener for Diego Gomez with a kind rebound.

Bournemouth's new prodigy, 19-year-old Brazilian winger Rayan, crashed a 20-yard effort against the outside of the post - narrowly missing out on becoming the youngest player ever to register an attacking return in his first four Premier League appearances.

Milenkovic fired a bullet-header inches wide of the post; that might have claimed a win for Forest against a dreadfully lacklustre Liverpool. Later, a mishit cross from Aina dipped on to the roof of the net.

Big misses/big saves: A pair of fantastic stops near the end of the City v Newcastle clash, Pope, with his foot, blocking a fierce Foden drive, and Donnarumma just getting fingertips to a long-range volley from Barnes.

Cole Palmer had a great solo breakaway opportunity, but shot fairly tamely, from too far out.

Djordje Petrovic made a great reaction save from Callum Wilson's near-post flick in the closing minutes to save a point for Bournemouth.

Joel Veltman nearly deflected a ball into his own net in the dying minutes at Brentford, but Bart Verbruggen brilliantly clawed it off his goalline.

Richarlison's cheeky back-heel sneaked through David Raya's legs, but the keeper somehow recovered to claw the ball back off the line. Probably not a turning-point of the match, because Arsenal were already 3-1 up by that point, and completely dominating; but it was a big moment in FPL.

Mosquera's loose pass presented Yeremy Pino with a fairly straightforward chance to lob a stranded Jose Sa, but he put the effort well wide.

One has to wonder why on earth Tolo Arokodare was on penalties in the first place. Presumably he won't be again, after that absolutely dreadful one - that gifted 'penalty save' points to Dean Henderson (who, of course, I'd just transferred out....).

Romaine Mundle was put in one-one-one against Bernd Leno, but blazed wide from 10 yards out.

Outstanding goals: Anton Stach conjured a thumper of a free-kick to give Leeds the lead at Villa (although Emi Martinez left him far too inviting a gap in the right half of the goal!).

And Benjamin Sesko combined with Cunha and Mbeumo on Monday night to finish off one of the most incisive breakaway goals we'll see this season.

Outstanding performances: Nico O'Reilly, playing a full 90 minutes, playing in an advanced midfield role,... and snagging two great goals - is likely to be the performance of the week.

Big mistakes: A bizarre mistake from Nathan Collins gifted a decisive goal to Danny Welbeck.

Bad luck: Forest really didn't deserve to lose against Liverpool, and certainly not from Aina's clearance rebounding into the net off an oblivious Macallister. Fortunately, this goal was ruled out when VAR noticed that the ball had bounced into the net off the back of his upper-arm.

FPL weirdness: 

Unexpected results: Burnley holding Chelsea to a draw, and indeed very nearly beating them, was a bit of a turn-up. Villa fans will probably feel that dropping points at home to lowly Leeds was an unpleasant surprise; but given the way their team's form has been swinging over the last few weeks, and how strong Leeds have become since the start of December, it really wasn't. Brighton's very comfortable win at Brentford was also quite a surprise: it was their best performance for some weeks, and one of Brentford's weakest in a long time. Brighton, Bournemouth and West Ham being the only teams to keep a clean sheet on Saturday was also a mite unexpected. Liverpool were probably expected to win at the City Ground, but they were so dreadful on the day, they didn't really deserve even a draw; and their last-gasp winner looked a mile offside.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' after Saturday included absolutely no-one that anybody owns (apart from Nico O'Reilly, who's only in just over 5% of FPL teams); although eventually some moderately popular picks - Henderson, Van Dijk, Eze, Iwobi, Gyokeres - found their way in. It's looking set to be yet another wretchedly low-scoring gameweek, with a global average of just 45 points, and nothing much coming from any of the most popular players. Saturday was uncommonly free of refereeing cock-ups, but Sunday saw two fairly horrendous ones, with a Kolo Muani goal being unjustly disallowed while Macallister's miles-offside last-gasp winner was unfathomably allowed. Thus, it's getting up to about a 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 27 (25/26)

We seem to have got past the awful winter injury avalanche; almost everyone who's going to get injured.... is now injured. For this week, anyway, we don't seem to have many new injury issues to worry about (despite the long gap since the last league games, and the welter of FA Cup and European play-off matches in the interim).

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 27?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Martin Odegaard was missing from Wednesday's trip to Wolves with a 'knock'. Bukayo Saka came off with 20 minutes left in that game, but that was probably just a cautious managing of workload, since he's only just back from an injury layoff (although it did look as if he might have jarred his right knee and/or ankle in an awkward challenge...). Leandro Trossard also came off against Wolves, shortly after being clattered in the face by Santiago Bueno's shoulder; however, Arteta has seemed bullish that it was nothing serious, and certainly not a 'concussion protocol' issue.

Burnley's Albanian forward Armando Broja has apparently picked up a knock which is likely to keep him out for at least a week or two (although I can't see how he was ever getting a start over Zian Flemming or Lyle Foster....).

Maxence Lacroix suffered a thigh-muscle injury in this Thursday's European tie: the severity of it is yet to be assessed, but he seems certain to miss this weekend. Jefferson Lerma had pulled a hamstring in the last league game against Burnley: not too bad, but could sideline him for up to a month. This will leave Palace badly stretched at the back, and possibly having to move someone like Munoz or Chadli into the back-three.

Samuel Chukwueze has a calf-strain, which will rule him out for this weekend at least.

Noah Okafor tweaked his hamstring in the Cup game against Birmingham last weekend, and could be out for up to a month (good news, probably, for Lukas Nmecha).

Erling Haaland has been the big worry of late, having been yellow-flagged for the past 10 days, after being withdrawn at half-time in the last league outing against Fulham and then rested altogether for the not terribly demanding Cup tie against Salford on Saturday, and reportedly suffering from some sort of niggling problem in one of his knees. However, it appears this may have been just precautionary minutes-management, and he is supposed to have been back in regular training this week. City youngster Max Alleyne had to come off in the Cup game against Salford after suffering a heavy collision - though he probably wouldn't have been a starter in the league anyway.

Sven Botman, complaining of a bad back, and Yoane Wissa, suffering with a training knock, both missed last weekend's Cup win over Villa, but Eddie Howe seems hopeful they might be available for selection again this week.

Forest full-back Nicolo Savona had to miss this week's European game with a knee problem, which needs further assessment - but seems likely to keep him out for a while.

Sunderland's Mozambican full-back Reinildo has picked up a knee injury which is set to keep him out for a month. (And although his ownership has dropped off a long way from its peak earlier in the season, nearly 3.5% of FPL managers still have him in their squad.)

Dominic Solanke was suffering with a virus at the start of the week, but rejoined training on Friday.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Marco Bizot apparently only has a one-match ban for a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' in the Cup game against Newcastle - although it really looked more like a 'serious foul play/violent conduct' offence, which should incure a three-match suspension. (Although, of course, he isn't expected to start in the league anyway, if Emi Martinez is fit.)

Everton's Jake O'Brien also has a one-match ban for a 'denial of a goal-scoring opportunity' in their last league game against Bournemouth.

West Ham's Freddie Potts is starting a three-match ban for a 'serious foul play' challenge in the Cup game against Burton.

And Cristian Romero is still only half-way through his four-match suspension.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well, apart from the entire Arsenal team.....  No, no, I jest, of course. No-one was conspicuously awful in the last batch of league games, or looks suddenly likely to be in danger of rotation.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Cole Palmer is starting to look sharp and hungry again (though he is still, I think, some way short of full fitness; and we can't rely on Joao Pedro picking up penalties for him every game...); what's more, Liam Rosenior seems to be evolving a style of play that suits him and might get the best out of him. Along with Joao Pedro, he's been the most transferred-in player for this week (folks no doubt further encouraged by a weak opponent in Burnley). People may be sleeping a little on Enzo Fernandez, who also seems to be benefitting enormously from the new tactical system.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (82)

 

"There are many ways of going forward, but only one way of standing still."

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Ha-haa!

Arsenal get an 'early' double gameweek, against middling and weak opponents,... and get held to a draw by both,.... pissing away a two-goal lead against bottom-of-the-table Wolves!

The vaunted Arsenal defence returned very little in FPL from the double-fixture (apart from the unexpected Piero Hincapie, who wasn't even a shoo-in for a start, but ended up playing almost the whole of both games, and coming up with a goal against Wolves); the much transferred-in Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyokeres returned bugger-all.

Oh, schadenfreude, we do love you.

Is it SLOP??

 

I came upon this video the other day, and found it quite interesting. It reminded me of a post I wrote on here nearly a year ago in response to this video on The Athletic's Tifo sub-channel, discussing why football is such an exceptionally complex game (almost uniquely so), and why this imposes severe limits on the extent to which data analysis can be helpful in 'understanding' it. This new video is a far more superficial discussion of the topic than the earlier Tifo one, focusing mainly on why football ('soccer') is so much more 'unpredictable' than the major American team sports. Unsurprisingly, it's because it's a low-scoring game (so, a single error leading to a goal can more often have a decisive impact on the final result), and because a draw being included among the possible game outcomes heavily impacts both the game's tactics and the predictability of results. The one major piece of data analysis in the video suggests that from 2005-2025 barely half of Premier League games were actually won by the 'favourite' (although that begs the question of how the 'favourite' is assessed; many fixtures are so tight that there is no clear favourite - certainly not when other factors like recent form and home advantage are taken into consideration along with league standing and/or general 'status' of the two clubs; it also omits to consider how many of the 'upset' results were only draws rather than losses, which obstructs direct comparability with the American team sports).

While I quite liked this video, I do feel rather hesitant about sharing it. Youtube is awash with AI SLOP these days, and I'm not completely confident that this isn't another example. It does seem to be free of any of the usual tell-tales - the heavy-handed rhetorical antitheses, the frequent repetition of content, or occasional obvious glitches in the voiceover (AI-generated narration tends to have the odd clunking mispronunciation or bizarre bit of phrasing or intonation now and then, or sometimes just an obvious break in the continuity mid-line - which completely gives it away). And the content appears to be all accurate and true (I haven't checked that central statistical claim, though....). But it is a bit glib and shallow. And they are churning out an awful lot of content in a very short time: over two dozen videos in barely two months since the channel launched. Alas, I think I smell a rat. But I'll probably check out a few more of their videos to try to find some persuasive evidence for my hunch on this.

Happy East Asian New Year!!

 

Today is New Year's Eve for many people in my part of the world (so, neighbourhood karaoke parties and midnight fireworks will make an early night impossible....). It's commonly thought of as the Chinese New Year, but in fact the Vietnamese Tet and Korean Seollal holidays also celebrate this 'lunar new year', and there are similar events in Tibet and Mongolia as well, not to mention in all the extensive Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese diaspora communities elsewhere across South-East Asia - and around the world.

We have a particularly cool zodiac animal this year, The Horse (my nieces will be thrilled; both huge horse-lovers). And not just any old horse, but a 'Fire Horse'. (Each of the 12 Zodiac animals is also associated with one of the 五行, the 'Five Elements' - Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal, and Water. The East Asian Zodiac rotates through each animal for each element, meaning that a full cycle takes 60 years.)

So, if this is a holiday for you - or if, like me, you just enjoy any excuse for a party and embrace everyone else's holidays too - a Happy New Year to you!!!

Or...  Chúc mừng năm mới!

새해 복 많이 받으세요!

Шинэ оны мэнд хүргэе!

ལོ་གསར་བཀྲ་ཤིས་བདེ་ལེགས།!

新年快乐!

A final peek into the Crystal Ball (25/26)

 

It's about time for a final (foolhardy, doomed...) attempt to gaze into the crystal ball, and to try to imagine how the closing stage of the season is going to unfold. We're just about two-thirds of the way into the season: players brought in during the mid-season transfer window have had a few weeks to start bedding in, most of the season's managerial sackings have now been got out of the way (although Scott Parker, I would imagine, is still not sleeping very easily; and there might be one or two others at risk if results go very much amiss over the next month or so), the League Cup finalists have been determined, and a few teams may have cleared out a little bit of breathing-room in the crowded fixture schedule by contriving to crash out of the FA Cup in one of the early rounds. We're all set for the run-in to the title (and to relegation): the last 10, 11, 12 games of the season are where things, as they say, get real.

Only a couple of weeks ago, when Arsenal seemed to have managed to negotiate their slightly wobbly period through December/January without actually dropping many points (while all of their rivals, especially City, had done rather worse), I was finally prepared to concede that they were now looking almost unstoppable, that the title was theirs to lose. I had thought, in particular, that City's woeful collapse in the second half against Spurs in Gameweek 24 looked as though it might have been the decisive turning-point in this season's title race. But.... City have bounced back from that disappointment quite strongly, while Arsenal's 'minor wobble' is perhaps continuing longer than I thought it would. And so, I'm still not completely convinced by Arsenal's capacity to tough it out during this closing stretch. They do, however, have a particularly inviting run of games in the home straight: apart from Chelsea at home at the end of the month and City away in mid-April, they should be struggling to drop points against anyone else. But maybe they'll still find a way to do so?? [Their double fixture in Gameweek 26, which we're still in the middle of, could prove crucial: they've already had one scare/disappointment, in struggling to hang on to a point and often being outplayed away to Brentford last Thursday; if things go similarly amiss for them when they visit Wolves in a couple of days, then... the race is definitely 'back on'; and City may even feel that the momentum has subtly shifted back in their favour.]

I said at the turn of the year that this race was going to be too close to call, and that it would be prudent to avoid doing so. But when I put myself on the spot here in this post,... I'm going to stick with my original gut feeling that Arsenal still weren't quite good enough to hang in until the end; I fancy they will falter - not much, but just enough for someone to catch them. And I suspect they will falter so slightly that only City have any chance of slipping ahead of them. Manchester United, with the benefit of their remarkable Carrick Bounce, currently look much the best and most dangerous team in the league, and I rather think that if they'd ousted Amorim a month or two sooner, they might have been able to get themselves seriously into the title conversation. But given how ropey things were often looking for them in the first half of the season, finishing third, as I now envisage for them, would be a hell of a result. There won't be much to choose between Liverpool and Chelsea, I fancy. Liverpool, I think, have the stronger squad and the more effective overall team, but Chelsea have a bit of an edge in explosive talent, particularly through Palmer - if he can now get back to something like his best in this closing phase of the season; and so I'm tipping Chelsea to just barely cling on to fourth place.

I was a sceptic about Villa's prospects this year (even before their terrible start), feeling that they'd overperformed last year and would struggle to get anywhere near that level again. Emery's men proved me wrong, with a sterling run of form up until around Christmas. But I worry that their squad has always been a bit too thin for these rarefied heights, and now that they've lost most of their midfield for a while - especially the stabilising force of their linchpin player, Kamara - they might really find these next few months a struggle. I'm betting that they'll just about be good enough to hang on to a top six finish - but perhaps largely because of the absence of any strong challenge from those below them, rather than because they finish the campaign all that confidently themselves.

The next four will also be difficult to separate. I fancy Brentford's recent exceptional form, and the outstanding performances of their new centre-forward Thiago, to keep them at the head of the chasing pack, although Bournemouth could run them very, very close. Newcastle are one of the hardest teams to predict, because they've had such an up-and-down season, and have been hit by so many injuries. I still think they have the potential to rally, and prove themselves to be at least a slight cut above the others in this best-of-the-rest group, but... with the talismanic Guimaraes apparently now expected to be out for several weeks, they might struggle even to hang on in mid-table (I think it will help their cause enormously if they can make a dignified early exit from the Champions League); I think, after such a difficult season, they might settle for finishing - narrowly - above their north-east rivals Sunderland.

The bottom-half are all such spotty performers, with such notable flaws in their squad make-up, that it's hard to see any of them justifiably finishing 10th or higher - but you never know: one or two of them might pull off a surprising late flourish. Fulham have had a mostly pretty impressive season, and are being buoyed in particular by the outstanding form of Harry Wilson (although the likes of Smith Rowe, Chukwueze, and Kevin have also been excellent recently); but they do have a serious lack of firepower up-front, and that makes almost every game a bit of a struggle for them. Everton have a similar failing, although for them the great counterbalancing strength of the side that is keeping them well out of the relegation mess is that they have one of the best defences in the league, rather than one of the best sets of goalscoring midfielders.

I fancy Palace and Brighton, despite their difficulties in recent months (collapsing horribly, to confound the optimistic expectations I had for them back in November), should have the quality to stay above the bottom-third scrappers. Leeds seem likely to mount the hardest challenge to pull them down another place. The Yorkshire team have been one of the big surprises of the season for me: their renaissance had not quite yet got fully under way when I last compiled a set of these predictions at the start of December, and I was still expecting them to be fairly out of touch at the bottom (only escaping dead last because Wolves had had such an improbably awful season). but they set off on quite the charge at that point. They seem to have run out of impetus again a little bit now; but they have managed to make themselves clearly rather better than any of the teams now below them, and deserve to hang on to their current position, if not perhaps scrabble even just a little bit higher.

Spurs and Forest have also had weirdly dreadful seasons, and it remains to be seen how much - if anything - of a positive 'bounce' they may enjoy as a result of their latest change of managers. I think they're both probably in too pitiful a state at the moment to mount any very dramatic charge up the table (though I fancy Forest have more potential for that; they seem a better-balanced side, and have few injury problems at the moment; and Stefan Ortega, for me one of the most promising of the January transfers, could help make them a bit more watertight at the back), but they should be good enough to resist any last-gasp challenge from West Ham and Burnley - who are the 'great success' of my predictions this year, both looking fairly certain to have exactly the kind of season I suggested they would. Wolves, alas, are in a little competition of their own, trying to avoid setting worst-ever Premier League performance records; under Rob Edwards, they have started to look as if they should be able to achieve this - but it's still going to be a struggle for them.

So, here's where I'm now expecting everyone to finish. (My earlier attempts to see into the future, my rankings from the September and December posts in this series, are on the right.)

But yes, it has been an unusually up-and-down sort of season: most of the top sides have been 'disappointing' to some extent, almost every club has suffered wild fluctuations in form, and it is still a very tight contest. With only 11 points between 4th and 12th place, and only 16 points between 4th and 16th, we could well see the current order radically reshuffled again before season's end. At the moment, though, I don't foresee too many more more dramatic changes, most teams will just about manage to maintain their current standing. I think Villa and Everton are likely to drop off a little, and Manchester United will probably close the gap on the front two - without quite catching them. But elsewhere, I think things might remain remarkably static from here on. Oh, surely not? Well, no, probably not. But my crystal ball is cloudy now; if there are more big shifts in form in store, I can't see what they're going to be!

Are we starting to 'enjoy' VAR?!

I just came across this very funny little skit from the English comedy writer/performer, Michael Spicer, which effectively skewers so many of the exasperating failings with the 'Video Assistant Review' process which now mars our enjoyment of the beautiful game in the EPL every single week. [I have written about the failings of this system often on this blog - most notably here, where I try to suggest some 'fixes' for them.]

Spicer is best known for an occasional series on his Youtube channel called 'The Room Next Door' - in which he depicts the travails of a backstage 'political advisor' trying to coach some bumbling public figure (remotely, via an earpiece) through a major speech. He recently did an extended one on The Dumpster's senile ramblings at Davos, which is particularly devastating. (The phrase "a laundry-bag of fascist farts" will stay with you...)

A LONG Wildcard?

Some folks like to play their Wildcard when there's a little interruption in the regular Premier League schedule - such as now, when we're skipping a weekend to make way for the 4th Round of the FA Cup, giving us 11 days between the FPL deadlines for Gameweeks 26 and 27. (Sometimes, when there's an international break, we may even get a 14 or 15 day gap between deadlines.)

There are four possible reasons for this preference (though two, no, three of them are pretty frivolous):

1)  You can take advantage of a 'best of both worlds' situation, being able to make transfers early (as soon as the deadline for the current gameweek has passed!) to avoid possible adverse price changes on players you're interested in - while having the security of being able to swap them out again, if they get injured before the next gameweek deadline. 

2) Since these long gaps between deadlines increase the risk of being hit by multiple injuries (there are invariably other games - European ties, domestic cups, or internationals - going on in the interval between regular league matches; and training seems to be becoming more hazardous than playing, in the modern game!), some may find it reassuring to have a Wildcard in play so that they can easily address any such developing crisis - even if they weren't hankering to make any active, improving changes to their squad.

3)  Some enjoy having the leisure to contemplate a major squad rebuild over a longer period of time. Some, indeed, find it difficult to visualise what different combinations of players would look like (and what they'd collectively cost...), and so actually use the 'Transfers' page for trying out multiple 'drafts' of possible new squads. And they can't get enough of this pleasant diversion: they want to drag it out over days and days.

4)  And some pursue 'trading for profit', focusing on trying to build their squad value rather than necessarily improving the total points-potential of their selection. Because there is more time for transfers to happen, and maybe more transfers needing to happen because of the longer period of time elapsed leading to a larger accumulation of injury problems, and because of the probability that more people than usual are using their Wildcards in a gameweek like this,... a long gameweek will tend to have a higher volume of transfer traffic, and this will result in a greater number of price changes. There are various FPL resource sites online that attempt to predict when price changes are imminent; but there's no 'rocket science' about that - it's fairly easy to anticipate which players are likely to be suddenly popular or unpopular, and you can check in on their recent transfers numbers regularly to see just how big a swing in ownership they are experiencing. 

Transfer trading for profit like this has become more difficult in recent years, as FPL has tweaked its 'algorithm' in a way that makes it rather less easy to trigger a price-change (in either direction), and so we now very rarely see multiple changes in the same gameweek. And of course, you need a player to go up in price twice in order to be able to make a profit on them, because the dreaded 'transfer tax' limits you to half the value of any increase in price since you bought him (rounded down!) when you sell a player on again; hence, you don't earn anything on a first increase in price, nor any extra on a third increase; and you can't reach a fourth increase during such a period of Wildcard trading, as the number of price changes within one gameweek is capped at three. However, where there is an extended gameweek, there is an increased chance that a player's price may rise twice (or twice more, if you were unlucky enough to miss out on his first price rise at the start of the gameweek; although the threshold for each successive price rise within the same gameweek is set far higher, so it is almost unheard-of to see three price rises in one gameweek), thus enabling you to take a quick 100k profit by selling him on immediately. 

In practice, these days it is very difficult to realise a rise in squad value of more than a few hundred thousand through this exercise. And it does take a lot of effort, in scrutinising the transfer numbers every day, and perhaps making dozens of speculative transfers over the course of the gameweek (most of which will return no profit).

So, really, only the first of those reasons is potentially a good one for considering a 'long' gameweek to be a tempting opportunity to trigger your use of the Wildcard.

But even that is a weak reason. And it is, almost always, going to be outweighed by the fact that, as I explained here a little while back, any interruption of the regular league schedule disrupts a club's usual training and preparation routines, and thus makes their form upon the resumption of league games more uncertain; and...  you don't want uncertainty when you're planning a major rebuild of your squad for the remainder of the season.

I rather feel that - in an 'ideal world', anyway - it's still too early to be contempating using the 2nd Wildcard. We haven't had time yet to evaluate the possible impact of changes made in the recent transfer window; and we've just seen a couple more managerial sackings (and we might yet see one or two more). And there are no major 'turns' in fixture difficulty likely for several weeks yet. It's always better to hang on to a Wildcard for as long as you can - unless there's a pressing need to use it.

However,... a possible factor that might tempt people to risk such an 'early' Wildcard now is the increasing attractiveness of some high-priced players who haven't previously been worth having: Wirtz finally getting into his groove at Liverpool, Palmer starting to pick up regular points with Chelsea again (though he still doesn't look fully fit to me), Semenyo settling in very well at City and - rather unexpectedly - getting regular starts (so far; I still fret that he might face occasional rotation once Doku's fully fit again), Sesko and Gyokeres possibly finding their scoring boots at last, and Mbeumo and Cunha also becoming very alluring as United's season has dramatically turned around under Michael Carrick. If you suddenly fancy bringing in even one or two of these players, that might require three or four changes - to shunt your budget around to be able to afford them. And if you have one or two injury problems as well,... then you're finding yourself in Wildcard territory. 

Better to hold off a while longer, if you can; but I can see how it's getting mighty tempting at the moment.

A little bit of Zen (81)

 

"We come to love that which we experience every day. But we can grow to hate that which we love every day."

GW

This, alas, is the way of the world. Familiarity breeds affection. That can lead to obsession. But ultimately, also, to ennui. And finally, very often, to contempt.

I have often slipped into the ennui zone with FPL - but I've never yet fallen out of love with it. Perhaps I will one day....  Perhaps.

[What else am I going to write about on the eve of Valentine's Day??]

Missing the 'linchpin'....?

 

We all use the term 'linchpin' all the time, often, perhaps, without fully appreciating its original meaning. In the physical world, rather than the realm of metaphor, it is the simplest form of mechanical fastening - usually securing a wheel to its axle. So, yes - it is the thing without which the wheels fall off...

In the football context, it is most often applied to the industrious, combative central midfielder who tends to sit fairly deep and fulfill a mostly defensive role (providing cover in front of the back-line to stop or disrupt or at least slow down counter-attacks, and trying to get back to provide an extra body in the box if such a break does slip past him), but also often being mainly responsible for setting the tempo of the game (knowing when to move the ball on quickly, and when to pause for a few seconds to allow teammates to recover their positions or catch their breath; knowing when to go for a progressive pass, and knowing when it's more sensible to opt for a low-risk, time-buying layoff sideways or backwards...), as well as being a crucial steadying, confidence-building influence in the team (Pep memorably said earlier this season, of Rodri, that his players would be far less nervous when protecting a narrow lead in the closing phase of the game if they knew the Spaniard was there to receive the ball from them - with absolutely no chance that he would give it up to the other side cheaply),... and also, perhaps, just tending to set the psychological tone of a game (establishing the level of competitiveness, the intensity of energy and desire - and sometimes just making it clear how much it's going to hurt opponents to try to get past your team or to take the ball off your team...).

I have always felt that players like this are key to the success of any top side. Rodri, or Vieira or Keane back in the Noughties, or (going right back to my childhood) guys like Graeme Souness and John McGovern and Billy Bremner.... were not the most attractive ball-players or the most idolised members of their teams; but those teams would not, I think, have enjoyed much or any of the success they did without them.

Few people - other than particularly astute Villa fans - would probably have appreciated that Boubacar Kamara was one of their 'most important' players now. But I fancy his loss is likely to be more keenly felt than that of Tielemans or McGinn (also ruled out recently), or even than the absence of one of their main creative players - Rogers, Buendia, Watkins - would be. Similarly, we have seen a number of times that Chelsea usually struggle to assert themselves in games when Moises Caicedo is injured or suspended. And I recently learned the astonishing statistic that, since the Brazilian joined the club four years ago, Newcastle have never yet managed to win a league game without him!

This is the importance of the central defensive midfielder for FPL; you won't often want them in your squad for their points potential (because, even with the handy lift of the additional 'defensive points' this season, as well as a few untypical little sprees of goalscoring from some of them, which have significantly elevated the totals of players like James Garner, Elliot Anderson, and Moises Caicedo, a primarily defensive player is rarely going to be anywhere near as much of a points-producer as a regular goalscorer classified by the game as a 'midfielder'*). However, you should be very alert to the impact that their fitness, and their level of performance, can have on those around them. [I commented last week on how Pascal Gross, Angel Gomes, and perhaps Douglas Luiz, were for me the most 'interesting' of this year's mid-season transfers-in, precisely because of this potential knock-on effect they might have, which could boost the FPL value of certain of their teammates.]

And this is now my only major worry for Arsenal as they seek to realise the potential for a multi-trophy season. Declan Rice, fabulous and versatile player though he is, has repeatedly shown that he was not able to fulfill a holding midfield role for them, when Partey was missing (at least, not on his own; he can contribute usefully to this task when paired with someone whose natural strengths are more suited to it). Meanwhile, Martin Zubimendi, good though he is, is not yet, I think, quite as impressive in this niche as Thomas Partey was at his best. And they don't have any cover for him...

People always focus on the more obviously influential players at the club, and fret how an injury to Raya or Gabriel or Rice or Saka might upset their title charge. But if they lose Zubimendi to a serious injury,..... I think they might be f@*ed!

*  Yes, I know Rice and Guimaraes and Enzo Fernandez are up near the head of the FPL midfielder rankings at the moment; but they are players who do provide a well-above-average goal threat, as well as being a major source of potential assists from set-pieces. And yes, even the less obviously 'box-to-box' Garner, Anderson, and Gravenberch are quite well placed too, having climbed above 100 points for the season. But the big difference in the game this year is not the supposed impact of the new 'defensive points' (nice to have, but you wouldn't, shouldn't be putting any player in your starting eleven purely for this), but the fact that - for a wide variety of reasons - almost all of the 'usual suspects' we'd usually look to among the goalscoring midfielders to be our major points-returners for the season... have failed to come up with much. There have been a few (Antoine Semenyo, Bruno Fernandes, Harry Wilson, Morgan Rogers) who've done pretty well; and there are some more we can still have hopes for (Wirtz, Cherki, Palmer, Saka..., maybe even Mo Salah??). But, compared to most recent years, the 'midfielder' category is almost devoid of any significant returns this year: Garner, Guimaraes, et al are not up near the top of the tree because they've been outstanding; even with a fat boost from 'defensive points', their current totals would be nothing to get excited about in any other year.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 26

A few unpleasant selection surprises again this week; although, at least, not too many new injury disasters to add to our FPL troubles.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Jake O'Brien's sending-off was at least pretty clear-cut: one of the few big decisions in this gameweek that no-one can have much of an argument with.

Red cards not awarded: Kenny Tete appeared to have had a surreptitious tug on Semenyo's braids in the penalty area, but after some rumination, VAR felt that the TV pictures didn't give a decisive view of the incident (I bet there were some camera-angles that did; and they just didn't get around to accessing them). Phil Foden was also rather lucky to get away with a clumsy challenge on Bassey, planting his studs in the back of the defender's Achilles as he ran away from him - amazing that wasn't at least given a serious look by VAR.

Brobbey was wrestled to the ground in the penalty area by Konate; he went down 'easily', but he was clearly being held - I don't know how VAR can not give these! Ekitike was even more fortunate to go unpunished when he caught hold of Roefs's chin to pull him off-balance as he was trying to clear the ball: it was only a very brief contact, and possibly 'accidental' - but it was again a very clear and incontrovertible foul; and, as contact with the face, it might well have been considered worthy of a red card.

Arsenal can rightly feel aggrieved that Santiago Bueno did not receive a second yellow card, or possibly even a straight red, for what looked like a fairly deliberate shoulder-charge into Trossard - which caught the Arsenal attacker in the face, and led to him having to go off shortly afterwards. However, such was the intensity of Arsenal's meltdown in the closing portion of that game that it doesn't seem all that likely - and certainly not deserved - that a man advantage would have fully restored their composure and changed the outcome of the game.

Penalties awarded: Both penalties in the Chelsea v Leeds game were uncontentious.

Rayan's lunge did not appear to make any contact with Branthwaite, yet a penalty was awarded - and VAR didn't seem to pay the incident any further attention.

Penalties not awarded: Arsenal had a shout for a penalty in the first-half when Andre appeared to have brought down Hincapie, but there wasn't much in it; the two TV replays shown were both inconclusive as to how much contact the Wolves midfielder had made with either the man or the ball - but probably a little, not much, with either.

Tight/dubious offsides: Joe Willock's apparent opener against Spurs was eventually ruled out by VAR; yet again, the SAOT graphic was severely unhelpful, unconvincing - appearing to show that the last Spurs defender's shoulder was indeed at least marginally nearer to the byline than any part of Willock's body. A strange one. Casemiro also had a goal chalked off for a very tight offside; to the naked eye - and to the player himself - he had looked narrowly 'off'; but the SAOT picture again confused rather than clarified the call.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed:  Palace have a fair case that the ball bounced up on to Ugochukwu's arm at the beginning of the move that led to Burnley's second goal (and we didn't hear that VAR was even looking at that?).

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Calvert-Lewin was a late omission on Tuesday, owing to an illness.

Both Pep and Marco Silva made a raft of substitutions just shy of the hour. And Haaland was withdrawn at half-time after suffering a heavy challenge.

Matty Cash was a last-minute omission, owing to a knee problem.

Eddie Howe left Hall, Wissa, and Tonali on the bench at Spurs.

Lots of surprises/disappointments for Arsenal fans in their first game of the gameweek against Brentford, the biggest of which was the omission of Saliba due to an illness. Havertz had also dropped out with another muscle strain, while Saka and Odegaard, struggling with injuries for a while, were only fit for the bench; hence, Madueke, Eze, and Mosquera got starts.

Near misses: Wirtz had a stinging 25-yard drive well palmed away by Roefs, and shortly afterwards hit a 15-yard cross-shot against the foot of the post.

Kadioglu cracked a long-range effort against the cross-bar in the first-half against Villa (Martinez got fingertips to it, but not enough for it to have counted as a 'save' - although it probably did!)

Big misses/big saves: Cole Palmer unbelievably sky-ed a late effort over the bar from a few yards out - when presented with an open-goal by Caicedo's low cross from the right.

Harry Wilson fluffed Fulham's best chance of the match (twice!) in the first-half at The Etihad - an opportunity he would surely have converted any other time in the last couple of months. Fulham also had a dangerous goal-mouth scramble in the closing seconds of the game, but couldn't find a way to prod home the consolation goal that would have wrecked everyone's 'clean sheet' points for City...

Ekitike had a free header near the end, but couldn't get his effort on target. Moments later, a Salah half-volley went just inches wide of the far post.

Martin Dubravka pulled off a superb save from an Ismaila Sarr volley in the final moments, to save the points for Burnley.

José Sá pulled off an important double-save late on against Forest to secure the draw - and make him (so far...) the gameweek's top-scoring keeper. In the first-half, Forest had enjoyed a 6-on-1 break, but Hudson-Odoi's cross found new-boy Lorenzo Lucca, who somehow spooned his effort over the top. At the death, Wolves had a 4-on-1 break, but this time Mateus Mané fired his shot tamely straight at the keeper.

Wan-Bissaka made a great goal-line block with his knee to preserve West Ham's lead.

Thiago had one powerful header brilliantly saved by Raya, while Lewis-Potter put one into the side netting - before eventually grabbing an equaliser. Thiago also blazed over from a good chance on a second-half breakaway. And Kelleher made a great stop from Martinelli at the end of a dangerous quick break late in the game. So, lots of excitement in that crucial game - but, as far as I can gather (from the very brief highlights so far available online), no refereeing screw-ups.

Outstanding goals: Hugo Bueno's delicious curler to start Arsenal's nerves rattnig on Wednesday was a peach of a shot - and enormous in its potential impact on the course of the season.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: An awful mix-up between Sanchez, Acheampong, and Gusto gifted Leeds an equaliser they didn't really deserve.

Bad luck: Lerma's own-goal was wretchedly unfortunate - Henderson's parry pinging into him from no distance, and being deflected into the net off his heel: one of the most improbable - and least culpable - o.g.'s I've ever seen.

Arsenal will feel that Wolves's late equaliser, cannoning in off the post and Calafiori's knee (twice!) was unlucky for them, but it wasn't at all outside the general run of expected game incidents. Saka's opening goal seemed considerably more fortuitous, since he barely got more than the tips of his hair to the ball, and that inconsequential, scarcely controlled deflection happened to take the ball straight through Sa's legs.

FPL weirdness: Surely Haaland should have had an assist for City's first goal? It looked to me as if he won the header cleanly, even if it subsequently got a bit of a deflection off the nearest defender on the way through to Semenyo to poke it home. 

And Van Dijk should not have been awarded Liverpool's late winner: the final decisive touch clearly came off the back of Diarra's head. (Maybe there's still time to reappraise that one? It really makes a huge difference in FPL land!! It's probably a case of a decision prejudiced by sentiment: with the assist currently awarded to Salah's corner, Super Mo has moved level with Steven Gerrard as Liverpool's second highest provider of assists [he'll never catch Kenny Dalglish...].)

There was another similar aberration at Villa Park, with Mings unaccountably being credited with an 'assist' on Hinshelwood's unfortunate late own-goal - though he clearly didn't get any contact on the ball, and the assist should properly have been given to Leon Bailey taking the corner.

There's also something very weird with the counting of 'saves' this week, with many keepers only being credited with 1 or 2, despite having fairly 'busy' games; Henderson and Dubravka seem to have been particularly hard done-by, with an official total of just 1 each - despite clearly getting at least a few more than that even in the brief TV highlights.

And it does seem very odd that Samuel Edozie has continued to be credited with Wolves's late, late equaliser on Wednesday night - when his effort was recorded as an own-goal by most news outlets; understandably so, since the shot struck Calafiori twice, as well as the post, before winding up behind the goal-line. I don't think the attacking player can reasonably still take credit when a defender has made two attempts to clear the ball, but still not managed to stop it going in.

Unexpected results: Chelsea really should have won comfortably against a Leeds side who were well below their recent best - but somehow they didn't.

The normally robust Everton defence wouldn't usually be expected to give away two such soft goals as they did against Bournemouth on Tuesday.

Liverpool really didn't deserve that win over Sunderland. Nor did Villa against Brighton.

Burnley put up a very spirited performance at Palace, but no-one would really have expected them to pull out a win here - especially after going 2-0 down! This was the most topsy-turvy result in a pretty wild gameweek.

Few people would have bet on either Forest or Wolves to keep a clean sheet - even against each other.

Although Manchester United were well below their recent levels, West Ham's clinging on to a draw against them was unexpected, and only just barely deserved.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is another odd one, though not as crazy as most this season have been: José Sá is one of the few goalkeepers to have managed a clean sheet, which will have been an unexpected bonus for the many FPL managers who got him in just for this double gameweek; and the defence did at least include four fairly popular players (albeit ones who haven't consistently been producing at the highest level); although Hincapie - perhaps the least likely of the Arsenal defence to get a big return from the double, as he wasn't even an expected starter - eventually displaced one of them. Semenyo and Palmer, though, are the only attacking players that anyone owns; but again, with the benefit of a double appearance, Madueke, Saka, and Rice muscled their win, despite a pair of poor results for Arsenal. After the main batch of games, it was looking another utterly miserable gameweek average, of only 40 points' though the two Arsenal games eventually dragged that up to a more respectable 58 points, that's still not great for a Double Gameweek.

Liverpool were very, very fortunate to come out on top in a game where Sunderland mostly matched them pretty well; and they probably should have both conceded a penalty and had Ektike sent off - so, that rankles as a particularly unjust result in this batch of games. In fact, 6 of the first 9 games didn't really pan out according to expectation or desert. And, while I would argue that an Arsenal 'wobble' in their two games wasn't entirely unexpected, the majority expectation was not for two feeble draws from those two fixtures. And there have also been an usually large number of at least slightly dubious decisions, and non-appearances by popular players over the gameweek. I think this is actually one of the worst, weirdest gameweeks we've had in a long while, and it's at least an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

However, since everyone surely has 3 Arsenal players this week, almost everyone is making one of them captain, a fair few have 1 or 2 picks from Wolves as well, and many are playing a bonus chip to boot,... we''re still barely half-way through this gameweek. We'll have to wait another week to find out how bad things really are.