Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 1

  

I'll try to continue with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Damn, the usual Gameweek 1 shit - with some teams starting unexpectedly hot, and others very decidedly not; all kinds of bizarre results.

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded:  

Penalties awarded: The very, very late award against Lewis Hall to give Liverpool a draw they hadn't deserved smarted more because of its timing (why hadn't the referee blown the final whistle already?) than because of the 'injustice' of the call. It was a bit of a 'soft' one, might easily have been dismissed as an accidental collision, but there definitely was contact to bring Munoz down, so it's hard to call it a definitely incorrect decision. Newcastle has spurned two or three chances to put the game to bed, so have only themselves to blame.

Penalties not awarded:  Nathan Collins very obviously got pulled to the ground in the penalty area at one point. VAR apparently decided to let it go on the basis that Collins is a cheating bastard who's always trying to initiate and/or make the most of that sort of contact! I sympathise with that verdict on his character; but in this instance it was not fair - that clearly was a penalty.

Tight/dubious offsides: 

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: 

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: It might have been a surprise to some that Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice were considered fit enough to start on Friday night (and were back to their best!); and also perhaps that Myles Lewis-Skelly is still being preferred to Martin Zubimendi (although Zubi did come on for the last half-hour, so presumably that's just a fitness issue), and that Havertz appears to have become the preferred central forward, over Gyokeres.

Diogo Dalot was mysteriously left out by Carrick, in favour of Mazraoui (but then, of course, he was brought on for the last 10 minutes - to give me a useless single point!). Then Patrick Dorgu was yanked off at half-time, to give Marcus Rashford a chance.... to do absolutely nothing. Every Manchester United player had an absolutely terrible game; they all really looked as if they were 'still on the beach'.

For Spurs, Pedro Porro and and Matheus Fernandes were apparently unfit to start, and after the game De Zerbi called out the fitness levels of Senesi, Van Hecke, and Tonali on the pitch as well - though even having most of your team 'not fit' doesn't really explain how catastrophically awful Spurs were.

Pierre Sage pulled Daniel Munoz and Eddie Nketiah off shy of the hour mark. Nobody has Nketiah in FPL; but Munoz is the 16th most popular defender, with an ownership of nearly 10%.

Ollie Watkins was omitted, apparently due to an imminent transfer to the Saudi League. And with no other fit forwards, Villa were forced to play Emi Buendia up front.

Near misses:  The one bright spot for Coventry on Friday evening was Tchaouna's impetuously improvised over-the-shoulder volleyed lob from just outside the box (Raya probably just about had it covered, but it looped on to the roof of the net).

Igor Thiago crashed his penalty against the foot of the left post, with a floundering Kinsky having gone to the other side.

Milenkovic headed a corner against the far post, with Trafford, for once, well beaten. 

Big misses/big saves: Pickford managed to tip Nketiah's fierce close-range drive on to the inside of his post to keep the game level early on - the best save of the day on Saturday. Shortly afterwards, Mateta spurned an open goal, guiding his shot against the foot of the post, when it seemed easier to score than to miss.

Sels pulled off a great flying save against Muharemovic, the second best stop of the day. A little later, Murillo played in Chris Wood - who came on for the last half-hour - but, with only Trafford to beat, the big striker uncharacteristically pulled his shot tamely wide.

Haaland whiffed untypically at a good cross from O'Reilly, and Guehi somehow managed to head wide wtih two-thirds of the goal to aim at. So, City really should not have been still desperately chasing the game in the dying minutes....

Outstanding goals:  Very nice free-kick from Nelson Angulo to get Sunderland back into the game (although the keeper probably should have got to it...). Anton Stach's late winner at Forest was even better!

Dewsbury-Hall's fierce left-foot drive gave Everton the lead out of nowhere just before half-time; up until then, Palace had looked on top in the game, but the momentum swung against them from that moment.

Outstanding performances: Arsenal fans are perhaps getting a bit over-excited about the lively form of their new Greek winger, Christos Tzolis: he did have a good game on Friday night, but Saka and Odegaard (and Calafiori and White) were even better - so, it's hard to see how you justify using one slot in the three-man club quota on a newcomer to the league.

Brentford's new midfield linchpin Mamadou Sangaré was given an immediate start, and absolutely bossed the game. But he was withdrawn with a quarter of an hour left. And this dominant performance came against an utterly hapless Spurs. And it looks as though his assists in this game were probably a bit fortuitous and untypical, and he's mainly likely to be a source of 'defcon' points only. I'd still rather go for Schade or Lewis-Potter, or maybe Damsgaard when he's fit again, from the Brentford midfield.

Big mistakes: Antonin Kinsky had a bit of a horror-show in the Spurs goal, tamely parrying the ball straight back to opponents for two of the goals.

Bad luck/good luck: OK, Odegaard had a great game on Friday, but his goal was an horrendous miskick!

FPL weirdness: 

Unexpected results:  Nobody expected Hull or Ipswich to start so impressively (or, perhaps, Coventry to be quite so lame; they had looked much the best of these three sides in the Championship last year). And while a lot of big clubs can be a little slow out of the blocks, Spurs and Manchester United and Aston Villa were just unbelievably bad this weekend - looking like relegation candidates rather than top-of-the-table hopefuls.

By the end of Sunday, Kai Havertz was still the only forward to have scored a goal, and in the 'Team of the Week' only Odegaard, Kayode, and Gakpo had any kind of ownership at all (even Odegaard, much the most popular, is barely in the current 'Top 50' picks, and below 10% overall ownership!). Despite a lot of people having rashly played their Bench Boost chip, the global average is still only a dismally low 36 points. Apart from some unexpected selections, and the abysmal performances of Manchester United and Spurs (the latter probably not that consequential in FPL, but United have 4 players in the Top 20 'most selected' for Gameweek 1!), there haven't so far been many egregious refereeing mistakes, so it's looking like a refreshingly low 2 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Here we go again....!!

 

"We must imagine Sisyphus happy."

Albert Camus

This game we so love and hate does seem very like the famous mythical punishment in Hell: endless toil, constant setback... ultimate futility.

We must learn to value the effort expended for its own sake, to celebrate the endeavour to achieve, rather than achievement itself.

Only about 14 hours to go now until the first kick-off of the new season:

 Arsenal v Coventry - at 8 pm, UK time. 

Stand by your boulders....

[Yes, this is a re-post from last year and the year before. But it is so inescapably appropriate that I'm going to use it every year.  I have a deep connection with the Myth of Sisyphus.]

A little bit of Zen (108)

 

"Football is the most important of Life's least important things."

Arrigo Sacchi

What is it  with sports coaches and their penchant for paradoxes?

This year's EARLY 'Sheep Picks'

I often express my dismay and disappointment that so many FPL managers rush in for the same players - 'sheep picks' based on herd instinct, just following a fad rather than formulating a rationale of one's own.

As I outlined in my annual survey of the pre-season selection landscape over the past couple of days (Pt. 1: Goalkeepers and Defenders, Pt. 2: Midfielders and Forwards), we have an unusually broad selection of tempting options this year, with probably at least 80-100 players worthy some consideration for the initial squad. 

Given that breadth of choice, no-one should be above 50% ownership (there are strong arguments to be made against the premium options in each position category: Haaland, Fernandes, Gabriel, and Raya), and really only a handful should be much above 10%. And yet... currently, 16 players have been selected by more than 20% of managers, and a further 27 have more than 10% ownership; and many of these are not the players who should be the most selected! In the online environment today, people assume that what a lot of other people seem to be doing must be right; when, as often as not, it's quite the reverse.

When I saw the snapshot above of the currently 'most selected' starting eleven, I thought to myself: 'If you have more than 3 or 4 of those, you're being severely unimaginative. If you have more than about 6, you're probably not going to do very well.'

The 2026-27 Pre-Season 'Sheep Picks'

Oh, where to start?? There are so many this year!!

As I reasoned last week, there is a strong - just about overwhelming - case for Haaland, whatever his price, because his points-potential is so much higher than any other forward's. But in that same post I argued that Bruno Fernandes and Gabriel (and David Raya too) are simply too expensive. They had exceptional seasons last year, and it would be unrealistic to suppose that they can produce similar or greater returns this year; on the contrary, there are good reasons to expect that their points totals this time will be substantially lower. They might indeed start the season very strongly, they might well again be the top points-returners in their positions, their owners are unlikely to be dissatisfied with them; but they won't do quite as well as last year - and hence, even if they do claim the top of their position rankings again, the gap to the next best isn't likely to be all that much. You pay a big premium for a player to gain a substantial differential advantage, an expectation of a sizeable points-lift over their closest position rival; Haaland always offers that - the other three don't. These premium-price players are just about 'affordable', but probably only at the cost of going a bit light somewhere else in your squad. And it just doesn't seem worth it - when there are keepers 1-million pounds cheaper than Raya, defenders 2.5-3.0-million pounds cheaper than Gabriel, and midfielders 5.0-6.0-million pounds cheaper than Bruno Fernandes.... who might do very nearly as well.

[And even with Haaland, there is an argument that one might wait-and-see on him for a week or two. As he returned to training so late this year, he's unlikely to be fully sharp straight away, and might get quite short minutes in the first few games.]

Joao Pedro is a justifiable forward choice - but not such an obviously superior option as to merit more-than-60% ownership! Managers are getting a bit carried away by his glut of goals in pre-season. It's always nice for strikers to get their confidence up by finding the net regularly; but pre-season form rarely carries over into the start of the regular season (your granny could probably score a goal in some of these half-pace practice games). For me, he's clearly some way behind Alexander Isak and Igor Thiago as a 2nd forward pick, after Haaland.

Antoine Semenyo is a player I appreciate in the real world, but am lukewarm about in Fantasy: his returns tend to be a bit up-and-down; and he often plays well, without producing any FPL points. And with City currently looking so flakey in their Maresca transition period, I'd probably avoid any of their players - maybe even Haaland?! - for a few weeks until things start settling down for them. And I feel he was operating near the top of his envelope last time; he's another one like Bruno Fernandes who isn't likely to improve on last year's total, and might well come up quite a bit short of it. Also like Bruno - and Declan Rice - he was somewhat flattered by the dearth of points from other midfielders last year; even with a similar points total, he might be well outside the Top 5 midfield points-returners this season. Also, although 8.5-million isn't a particularly high price, it is this year in relative terms - because so few players have been given a high price this time: only 3 midfield players are more expensive than Semenyo, and no-one else is priced with him in the 8.5 tier; there are 9 players priced 0.5 or 1.0 million cheaper; and there are nearly 60 more players priced from 1.5-2.5 million cheaper - several of whom you might fancy to do nearly as well as Semenyo this time, if not a little better. (And of course, when they're that much cheaper, they don't actually have to do better than him to be preferable picks.)

Pedro Porro and Riccardo Calafiori always excite us with their attacking threat; and they almost invariably disappoint our early optimism about them. The new-look Spurs will probably take a while to find their feet, so I'm wary of taking any of their players from the start of the season. (The same argument, of course, applies to Antonin Kinsky and Martin Dubravka, currently the second and third most popular goalkeeper picks; as I mentioned yesterday, they are an appealingly cheap pairing - but it's almost always worth paying that half a million extra for a pair of starting keepers; and people who've gone for non-playing Dubravka without Kinsky ahead of him.... are just pissing 4-million quid away for nothing.)  Calafiori, as well as being worryingly injury-prone, seems to drift in and out of favour with Arteta. Timber, due back in training any day now, might well be preferred to him immediately at left-back (and indeed, Hincapie sometimes was last season); and they've just acquired Konsa as an additional option at right-back. I'm a big fan of Calafiori; but I'm not convinced that Arteta is, and I'm not confident he'll get a long run of starts. Luke Shaw is another super-popular defensive pick at the moment, presumably because he's so generously priced at 4.5 million. But his age, his injury record, and the fact that the club have been trying to buy a replacement for him this summer all counsel caution; I wouldn't be suprised to see Dalot or Mazraoui starting ahead of him at left-back. (While De Ligt and Martinez are out of commission, it seems likely that Ayden Heaven will be starting alongside Maguire in the opening games; he could be an attractive alternative for a cheap representative in the United defence.)

Virgil Van Dijk... is getting old. He was often looking so slow and erratic last season that there was a serious danger he might be dropped - or would have been, if Liverpool had any cover in central defence! He only ended up with a good overall points total because of his exceptionally good attacking returns, not his defensive performance; and that really was a bit of a freak, far more than he'd managed in any previous season (and such melee goals from set-pieces are likely to be much less common this season, as refs tighten up on grappling in the box, and defences get better at reading the set routines). Liverpool will probably be quite defensively solid most of the time, and keep a decent number of clean sheets; and Virgil will probably do quite well on the 'defcon' points, when opponents do manage to put them under a bit of pressure. But I'd expect his points return this time to be a fairly middling 140-160 - simply not worth that huge 6.5-million price-tag.

I said yesterday in my review of the forward options that the sudden enthusiasm for Dominic Calvert-Lewin is quite baffling. He had one moderately good (not brilliant) and mostly (not entirely) injury-free season last year - for the first-time ever. There's no compelling reason to assume he can pull that off again; and even if he can, he's not that strong a pick, even in his price category; in fact, I'd rate him towards the bottom of the 6-million-pound forward options. When a player who doesn't merit a 5% ownership is up nearer 30%, the odour of sheep-shit is heavy in the air.

I like Morgan Rogers as a player; but as an FPL asset, he's severely unconvincing. He's posted decent - but not outstanding - season totals over his two years at Villa; but those seasons were both characterised by a few brief bursts of high-scoring and long runs of blanks. It's not obvious how he'll fit into the set-up at Chelsea (I'd like to see Enzo Fernandez leave, to 'make room' for him), and he might not immediately be a regular starter; and even if he is, he'll probably take a little while to settle in. If we're only going for one Chelsea midfielder,.... it's likely to be Palmer that claims that spot.

At the moment, with City looking so disorganised at the back in the Community Shield last weekend, and there being so much uncertainty about the preferred defensive lineup under the new manager, we really shouldn't be taking any of their defenders in the initial squad. Nico O'Reilly hasn't looked in great form since the end of last season, and is quite likely to be displaced at left-back by fit-again Josko Gvardiol; but if he isn't, Gvardiol will surely play instead in the centre-back pair, at the expense of Marc Guehi. And yet, by some strange logic, O'Reilly and Guehi are currently the most popular defensive picks from City, with massive ownership levels. Until we know that they are regular starters - and that City aren't going to leak goals every week, like they just did in Cardiff - they shouldn't be in anybody's squad!

Declan Rice has nearly 20% ownership, young Greek winger Christos Tzolis is at 19%, and newly signed defender Ezri Konsa is at 16% and on the rise. This is presumably a response to how formidable Arsenal looked in the Community Shield this year. But Rice didn't make much impact in that game (having come on at half-time for a limping Guimaraes), and after carrying an injury all summer and looking seriously fatigued for England, he seems likely to be out of action or given rationed minutes for at least the first game or two; and anyway, his rate of returns, though fairly consistent, just isn't high enough to warrant long-term inclusion in an FPL squad (it was only that consistency that got him such a high final ranking last year, that and the fact that all of the leading creative/goalscoring midfielders had horrible seasons; he was rarely in the Top 5, or even the Top 10 midfielders over any short run of games; and I think he's unlikely to be in the Top 10 overall at the end of this season). Tzolis has looked very lively in pre-season, but there's no guarantee that that form will translate into Premier League performance; indeed, there's no guarantee that he'll be an immediate or invariable starter (it's a concern to me that the left-wing position is the only slot in the Arsenal team that isn't nailed-down to an obvious first-choice starter - and thus has to be used to give token minutes to all of the back-up players, just enough to keep them 'happy'; not just the specialist wingers, Martinelli and Madueke, but also Jesus and Eze, and even perhaps Havertz or Guimaraes, on occasion; thus, even if Tzolis does immediately get the nod as the preferred starter there, I can't see him playing every week). And folks are now getting very excited about Konsa being a 'cheap route' into the Arsenal defence!!  But is he going to start - ever??? I can't see how; he looks like back-up to the back-up to me. He's only a makeshift right-back, and he doesn't look nearly as good as Mosquera at centre-back (or as good as White or Calafiori or Timber, who can also play that position). And Bruno Guimaraes, likewise, is surely destined to be a back-up rather than a regular starter. He's got excellent value as a utility player, versatile enough to deputise ably for Rice, Zubimendi, or Odegaard - but he's not actually better than any of those three in their particular roles. (Many Arsenal fans have grown disgruntled with Odegaard in the past couple of seasons, and were assuming that Bruno would immediately displace him. That never seemed likely to me, since Odegaard is very tight with Arteta, and plays a crucial role in organising the implementation of his coach's tactical instructions on the pitch; in that, he's probably become pretty much irreplaceable - at least in Arteta's eyes - even if his performance-level had tanked; but he was clearly back to his very best in the Community Shield - so Bruno is surely going to be bench-warming as soon as Rice is fully fit again.)

Illiman Ndiaye is another player I really like, but he had a pretty underwhelming season last year, in large part because David Moyes kept shunting him around to different positions, rather than regularly starting him in his preferred left-wing slot; and also, perhaps, because there was no regular - or reliable - forward playing in front of him. I don't see that changing this year. In fact, I rather fear that Everton 'over-performed' last year, and might slump into relegation trouble again this time. There are a lot of good midfield options at 6.0-million this year, and Ndiaye doesn't really look to be the most promising of them.

Issa Diop and Milan van Ewijk are way out in front as the most popular 'budget' defender options. But if you go without one or more of the premium picks, it shouldn't be difficult to find an extra half million to spend on your 5th defender - so that you can actually get someone decent,... rather than someone who's likely to ship 80-100 goals over the season!! Even if you do insist on having a 4.0-million-pound player to stretch your budget, I'd rather have Coventry's Bobby Thomas.

Meanwhile, Pascal Gross and Enzo Le Fée are the two most popular 'budget' midfielders - why? There are so many more tempting (and also temptingly cheap) midfielders at Brighton alone! Gross is now 35, and has surely been reacquired more for dressing-room 'influence' than for regular starts. Le Fée is a decent player, but there are at least half a dozen other options in that price-bracket who should be getting more attention.

So, good grief, that's at least two-thirds of the Top 30 or so current picks who are at least rather dubious, if not outright bonkers choices!!!

Possible Picks - 2026 [Pt. 2]

 

Following on from yesterday's post on the most promising goalkeeper and defender picks for the season ahead, I'll now try to provide a survey of the best prospects in midfield and attack. 

Midfielders

Bruno Fernandes is by far the most popular midfield pick at the moment, with an ownership of very nearly 50% - despite his eye-watering price-tag of 12 million pounds. Although there's not enough 'budget pressure' this year to make him strictly unaffordable, my feeling is that he's not 'worth' that price, when there are several others in that position who might do nearly as well as him for 4 or 5 million less. I think he's unlikely to do quite as well as last year, and might come up shy of 200 points; he might again be the top midfield points-scorer, but it won't be by that much of a margin this year. It's non-ideal to take more than one player per club in any one position, so there's quite a lot of competiiton for a slot from Manchester United. I would favour Mbeumo, who is probably the most nailed starter and an out-and-out goalscorer. Cunha (a little incnosistent, and might be a minutes-risk), Diallo (will probably mostly get minutes off the bench) and Dorgu (unfortunately reclassified as a 'midfielder' this year, which greatly reduces his possible points return) might all be worth having when they enjoy a run of regular starts and a nice spell of form, but Mbeumo is the more promising long-term choice.

From Liverpool, it's a toss-up between Szoboszlai and Wirtz. It looks as if Szobo is going to be played a bit deeper this year, as a 'second pivot' alongside Gravenberch; but he'll still have plenty of opportunities to push forward into the attack when they enjoy sustained spells of possession, and he's a major threat from set-pieces. Wirtz, as an advanced '10' and occasional box-crasher, should be the more regular source of attacking returns, but many might still have doubts about his consistency after the difficulties he had settling in last year. A steady drip of extra points for 'defensive contributions' and bonus points might swing the dial in Szobo's favour; I think he'd certainly get the nod if he were the designated penalty-taker too, but I'd guess that's probably going to be Isak.

Arsenal's midfield isn't very attractive because it has become so unproductive in recent years: a scant 71 goals last year, and so many of those coming from scrums at corners. On the plus side, that is going to have to change this year - so, we might see substantially more goals from them this time, more goals from open play, more goals from midfield. However, at the start of the season, I think they're all a bit too much of an unknown quantity to be gambling on. The arrival of Bruno Guimaraes has created some selection uncertainty (I doubt very much if he'll be an immediate starter, but he's a great utility option: versatile enough to deputise ably for Rice, Zubimendi, or Odegaard, though not quite as good as any of them at their specialist styles of play); Odegaard was outstanding in the Community Shield, but has had two very subdued seasons, which is causing many to continue to doubt him (and even to question his future with the club - although I think that's nonsense); Rice isn't worth having for his defensive points alone (his season haul last year, though it ranked him as the 4th best midfielder, was not quite enough to merit long-term inclusion in an FPL squad, and probably wouldn't have been enough to put him in the Top 10 in most years); Tzolis has looked impressive in pre-season, but that may not count for anything, and there is a huge doubt over his minutes (the left-wing position is the only slot in the squad that's not fairly well nailed, so it has to be used to give minutes to most of the back-up players: not just Martinelli and Madueke and Jesus, but also potentially Eze and Havertz, on occasion). Saka is the only Arsenal attacking player who carries a really high points-threat, but... there's still a question-mark over his fitness, as he was only given a run-out for the last half-hour in the Community Shield on Sunday.

Palmer might be worth a punt at Chelsea; he is the best goalscoring playmaker in the league, but his confidence might be dented after a couple of very difficult seasons, and it might take a while for a new style of play to take shape under Alonso. Rogers is a wait-and-see; he has great potential, but is also worryingly inconsistent - goes 'quiet' for long periods; and he's not guaranteed an immediate start (they really need to sell Neto or Enzo Fernandez to make room for him). Estevao could be a tempting option, but probably only for short runs of games - when he hits hot form and/or the fixture run looks especially favourable.

Semenyo is the most popular option from City at the moment: I have doubts about his consistency of output - to me, he's always looked like a player who relishes the limelight, who wants the responsibility of being the prime creative force in the team; obviously that's not often going to be the case at City, and so, last season, he tended to blow hot and cold in his FPL returns. But he's probably worth gambling on, in case he starts the season hot. My preference would have been for Doku, but he's got a calf-strain and is a doubtful starter for the opening weekend. Cherki and Foden are too inconsistent, and too uncertain of regular minutes to gamble on for Gameweek 1, and no-one else at The Etihad is very tempting; Anderson, like Rice, isn't worth having for defensive points alone - and he won't get nearly as many of those at City as he did for Forest, anyway.

Gibbs-White is the other tempting option in the upper mid-price range, although Forest are again likely to be down in the bottom third, and his 8-million asking price this year is, I think, just a little bit excessive. Things might take a while to settle down under Glasner, and they have a lot of tricky fixtures over the opening few months. He has a 12% ownership at the moment, but for me he's another wait-and-see.

There's a huge amount of value to be found in the 5.5-6.5 price range this year: Schade, Ouattara, Damsgaard, Lewis-Potter, and Janelt at Brentford, Tavernier, Rayan, and Kluivert at Bournemouth, Okafor, Aaronson, Wilson, Ampadu, and Stach at Leeds (a pity about the selection uncertainties this abundance of talent creates!), McGinn, Buendia, and - most excitingly, when he gets fit again - Manzambi at Villa, Le Fee and Talbi at Sunderland, Mitoma, Ayari, Hinshelwood, Gomez, and Gross at Brighton, Sarr and Pino at Palace, Kudus (although he's suffered a serious muscle injury this summer and looks set to be out for a while), Maddison, and Tel at Spurs, Ndiaye and Dewsbury-Hall at Everton, Iwobi and Smith Rowe and Bobb and Kevin at Fulham (though probably not until GW6, as they have one of the most daunting batches of early fixtures!), Barnes or Ramsey, or perhaps the newly-arrived Bamba or Touré at Newcastle, Hudson-Odoi or Ndoye at Forest, and maybe, maybe even Fatawu or Enciso of Ipswich or Tchaouna or Hamer of Coventry. I think everyone should be taking at least two or three of these. And it's quite possible that five or more of them will out-perform all the more expensive picks over the first few weeks of the season!

This wealth of talent at the budget end of the midfield category is the reason there's no acute 'budget pressure' this year. If we load up on these guys, we can easily afford at least two - perhaps even all three - of the 'super-premium' players. I just don't think that Gabriel and Bruno Fernandes are sufficiently compelling options.

Forwards

The big question in FPL at the moment is not so much whether we want Haaland (of course we do; however dodgy City's form might be under Maresca, especially early in the season, he's the only forward who looks clearly capable of getting well over 200 points, and he might even be able to reach 300 in a really good season; no-one else is anywhere near that potential) as whether we want him now. He only returned to training in the middle of last week, and was pulled off shy of the hour in Cardiff on Sunday (although that looked like it was prompted by an excess of caution, rather than because he was too tired to continue). I don't have too many concerns about his physical fitness, but I do think he might get short-ish minutes in the first few games, and might take a little while to recover his full sharpness. I said last week that I don't like the risk of being caught out by a sudden price-rise on him if all the fence-sitters suddenly come in for him in a rush (his ownership level has already fallen back slightly to 70% this week, and might dip lower; it will jump back to 75-80% the moment he scores his first goal!); and I don't like the idea of committing transfers - possibly even the Wildcard - to such a major squad restructuring (as would be required to bring him in) so early in the season. I think we just have to commit to him - or not - and accept that he might miss a game or two, or be well short of his best in the opening month.

The other big conundrum is whether Isak can regain his best form - and stay fit all season (he has been worryingly injury-prone all through his career). At least he's got no competition for a place at the moment, with Gakpo said to be heading out the door imminently and Ekitike facing a protracted rehabilitation after his Achilles injury in April. I would say Isak is certainly the strongest alternative to Haaland, if you want to try going without the big Viking - and probably the strongest second forward pick; although Thiago, Calvert-Lewin and Joao Pedro are currently more popular options. For me, the Brentford man is much the strongest of those three, although his early fixture run doesn't look that inviting. Joao Pedro is a brilliant player, but not an outright centre-forward; for me, he doesn't really seem to thrive in that role, and has blown very hot and cold during his difficult first season at Chelsea (indeed, I wouldn't be that surprised to see the club try to acquire a proper No. 9, and start using JP more as a '10'; they were rumoured to be sniffing after Osimhen). Calvert-Lewin had his first decent season ever last year - and it still wasn't that great; he has a long history of being both physically and mentally fragile, very injury-prone and woefully inconsistent; and he's got fairly strong competition for the start in Nmecha and Piroe. For me, he's not even the best option at the 6.0 price-point: Brobbey, Osula, Rutter (though less appealing now that he's been categorised as a forward rather than a midfielder), Igor Jesus, Richarlison, and Evanilson all look much stronger picks to me (especially the first two: Brobbey was sensational at the World Cup, and surely now ought to be a nailed starter with Sunderland; and Osula finished the season so strongly with Newcastle that he too surely ought to be geting a settled start now); and Solanke, if he could stay fit, and Wissa, if he could recover his best Brentford form, and perhaps also Fulham's Spanish youngster Gonzalo Garcia might also come into consideration at some point. Coventry's Haji Wright might have been an interesting possibility too; but he, apparently, has a serious thigh-muscle injury that might keep him out for a few months.

I initially forgot to mention Sesko and Gyokeres at all. I think they'll probably come into consideration at some point, but they're just too expensive to consider for the initial squad - given Sesko's unfortunate record of being repeatedly injured, and not trusted with a regular start even when fit last season, and Arsenal's unfortunate recent record of just not being very prolific goal-scorers. And after the Community Shield last week, there may be a suspicion that Kai Havertz has again become Arteta's favoured starter up top.

It's going to be a great season: anything could happen!

GOOD LUCK!!!

Possible Picks - 2026 [Pt. 1]

I've always maintained on this blog that I will generally avoid giving direct recommendations for or against any specific player (and I certainly won't be sharing anything about my own squad; not in advance, anyway; maybe occasionally retrospectively, just to share a few 'war stories' for general enlightenment and mirth - and acknowledge my fallibility), but.... since The Big Kick-Off is finally drawing near again, everyone is becoming obsessed with polishing up their opening squads.... and casting around for additional sources of advice.

So, I'll attempt a brief-ish rundown of who I think are the players most worthy of consideration in each position.

Goalkeepers

David Raya is once again the runaway favourite in goal, with fully one-third of the 5.5 million managers who've signed up for the new season so far having picked him. I've said a number of times before that he - or indeed, any premium-priced keeper - is probably a bad pick. I've gone into particular detail with the Raya example - it having a lot to do with the pressure of club quota; that there are often other Arsenal players who'll probably give you more of a differential advantage than him; but at the start of the season, it applies to any keeper priced at 6.0 or higher; and arguably, this year, since so many of the keepers have been priced down, to the 5.5 options as well. (Raya might just about have been worth it last year, because his record-breaking number of clean sheets put him well ahead of the rest of the field by the end of the season. But that could not reasonably have been anticipated before the campaign started; and he only pulled out that gap with a remarkable run of 5 or 6 straight clean sheets near the end of the season; prior to that, he'd been mostly neck-and-neck with the other leading keepers, as I'd anticipated. Moreover, you'd usually expect that other players from a title-challenging team would give you a bigger advantage than the keeper; but none of Arsenal's attacking players were consistently productive for very long, and they suffered so much injury disruption in defence that only Gabriel posted a large number of starts at the back.) Now, Raya is an excellent goalkeeper; and he probably will end up as the top keeper in FPL again. (And perhaps once again Arsenal won't be a high-scoring enough team to make anyone else an attractive long-term selection from them, apart from a regularly-starting defender [or two!].) Even so, I fear 6.0 million is a bit too much to spend on a keeper at the start of the season. Later on, when you've grown your budget a bit, and a lot of the more premium-priced players have got injured or proved to be in disappointing form, you can splash out on a player like Raya; in the initial squad, when budget is a bit tight, it is rash, unnecessary. 

I am a firm believer that two good mid-price keepers, with effective rotation around their more difficult fixtures, will almost always - and often quite substantially - beat the top-price keepers, anyway. Here's the list of the home/away rotation pairings for the coming season (apparently not yet published in a single list on the Premier League's own site, so this is courtesy of Brentford FC's website!). However, it's often better to look at the likely fixture-difficulty (obviously, you're quite likely to take a battering from one of the top clubs even when you have 'home advantage'): AllAboutFPL has this useful list of the most promising fixture pairings through the early part of the season, along with some possible selections.

Kelleher/Henderson look probably the most appealing pairing just on the home/away rotation, although Roefs/Horníček (if he takes the start from Pope; many seem to think he will) and Sels/Rushworth might also be appealing, though considerably riskier, punts. However, Jamie Trafford is a very tempting option now that he's moved to Leeds, and he enjoys a rather fortuitous rotation with Brighton's Bart Verbruggen - who was outstanding for much of last season - with it being possible to avoid pitting either of them against a top four club until the end of January!

The alternative strategy you could try for the early part of the season (though I wouldn't recommend it, as it leaves you unable to deploy your Bench Boost chip at short notice; and it's almost certainly not going to produce as many points for you as a good rotation pair) is to save some money by relying on a sole keeper while taking the cheap back-up from his own club (so, at least you always have a guaranteed starter between the sticks if your primary ever misses a game for some reason): Kinsky/Dubravka is the popular selection under this heading, with 20% going for this pair (probably only because they're so cheap, at just 8.5 for the two of them!); but I'd prefer Verbruggen/Steele as a slightly stronger - um, less Spursy - option at the same low price; and Lammens/Darlow, or perhaps Roefs/Ellborg, would, I think be much better, if you can rake together another 1 million for the goalkeeper budget; although, for that money, you can get two starters, which is surely going to be the preferable option.

Defenders

I already said last week that although Gabriel will probably again be the best defender for FPL,... I just don't think you can justify spending 8 million on him. (Not at the start of the season, anyway. As with a premium keeper, you can usually more comfortably afford that sort of luxury in the second half of the season...) Moreover, I doubt if he can match last season's exceptional points total; I imagine he'll only be in the 170-190 range this time, which probably won't put him far ahead of the rest of the field. With Saliba likely to be out for a few months, after needing surgery on a troublesome back problem, Mosquera seems likely to be his regular replacement in the centre-back pairing, and at just 5.5 million, offers quite tempting value for some representation in Arsenal's formidable defence. Calafiori and White are also tempting at the moment at the same price, but both have been injury-prone in recent seasons, and have been strangely in-and-out of favour with their boss too; and they face competition for their starts from Timber (when he's fit again; should be less than a month?) and Hincapie - so, they both seem rather too risky to me for opening squad picks.

With unclear selection and significant rotation-risk, probably none of City's defenders should be in contention for selection just yet - even more so after they leaked like a sieve in the Community Shield game the other day! Once they find their feet under their new coach (I'm assuming they will...), Gvardiol will probably be worth having, especially if he starts regularly at left-back again. Nunes would probably have been my favoured City pick for the start of the season, but he picked up a muscle injury in the warm-up in Cardiff on Sunday, and might now be out for a few weeks.

Manchester United ended up with a pretty impressive defensive record last season; and of course, after Carrick took the reins in January, they were in fact the best team in the league over the remainder of the season. Shaw (very impressive last season, though linked with moves away this summer, as the club searched for a new left-back) and Maguire are currently the most popular picks from Old Trafford, though I'd be a little nervous about their age and injury record; Martinez (although he hasn't featured in pre-season, because of his late return from the World Cup) or Dalot would be my preferred options. It's a bummer, though, that Dorgu has been reclassified as a midfielder.

I think it will take Liverpool a while to adapt to Iraola's style of play, and that is likely to leave them often vulnerable on the counter-attack - so, their defence could at times suffer even worse than last year, at least in the early weeks of the season. Van Dijk is aging quickly, getting visibly slower and making far more mistakes over the last season or so; some of his defensive performance numbers were actually pretty terrible last year, but his FPL total was buoyed by an exceptional number of goals/assists, which isn't likely to be repeated (quite a few of them were very generously attributed to him in the first place; and improved defending and changes in the refereeing will probably mean we see far fewer of these melee goals this year). Jacquet looks promising, but it's a risk to go for new players in the initial squad; we should give him a few weeks to see how he beds in, and if he's getting a regular start. I suspect we'll want Kerkez, Frimpong, or Bradley at some point this season - but again, they're probably wait-and-see prospects at the moment. 

Likewise at Chelsea, James is too much of an injury-risk, Palestra looks promising but might not be assured of an immediate start, and everyone else is probably too much of a rotation risk. Colwill, if he's fully fit again, is probably the best option there at the moment. And while Villa should be comfortably in the top third again, they've rarely looked that consistent or convincing at the back under Emery; Cash, or perhaps Maatsen, if he's finally going to get a regular start, after Digne's departure, could be worth having at some point - but they're not ones to bet on in Gameweek 1; in fact, their early run of fixtures doesn't look all that amenable.

Palace and Bournemouth had very impressive defences last season, but they've again lost key members of their back-line - Lacroix to Chelsea and Senesi to Spurs - and there's a danger that they'll suffer a rocky transitional period under their new managers. With Palace, in particular, I fear there's a distinct chance they could slump towards the relegation zone this year. Daniel Munoz has been outstanding for them for the past couple of seasons, but is rumoured to be about to leave; FPL managers have just woken up to the fact that his left-wing counterpart Tyrick Mitchell returned almost identical points last year, but costs 1-million pounds less - so, he's proving a popular pick. But I think I'd avoid any Palace players for now. There are similar misgivings about Bournemouth, but I'm a bit more optimistic about the overall strength of their squad, and Marco Rose's compatibility with the existing style of play. Truffert is likely to be the best bet from them.

The Spurs defensive roster looks very impressive; but we just don't know what the preferred selection is going to be at the moment (unless they play a back-five, Senesi, Van Hecke, and Van de Ven can't all start regularly; even if they do play that system, Robertson and Davies are also in the mix as options for the left side of the central three), or how well it will work in practice. Porro is always a popular pick at the start of the season, but almost always disappoints those lofty expectations. There are so many changes going on at that club that I think it will take a while for things to settle down, and we'd probably do better to steer clear of them for the first few weeks, at least.

I'm hoping Sunderland can kick on from their tremendously impressive debut season (although playing in the Europa League will be a drain on them, and we're likely to see a dip in their Premier League performances following midweek European games). Alderete, Ballard, Reinildo and Mukiele were all worth having in spells last year; the latter is my particular favourite, for his attacking threat down the right flank - and his tremendous long-throws. Leeds also started to look much more robust in the second-half of the season, although they suffered a lot of injuries at the back which has made Farke's selection preferences there unclear. Rodon, Gudmundsson, or Bogle could be tempting budget picks.

Brighton and Brentford are both too inconsistent to be very attractive defensive options for me. Kadioglu or De Cuyper would be tempting, if they weren't competing for the same starting slot; Brentford's Michael Kayode is probably one of the more promising 4.5-million-pound options. Nottingham Forest, under Oliver Glasner, could bounce back from their chaotic 25-26 season, making any of their previously formidable back-line appealing again (and presumably there'll be five of them to choose from now!); but with Glasner liking to progress his full-backs into the attack quite often, Aina and Williams are likely to be the best options.

Livramento and Hall are two of the best full-backs in the league; but they've both been linked with moves away in this transfer window. And with Newcastle having already lost three of their best players this summer, there's a danger they could suffer a complete collapse - at least for a while, until Jaissle gets a grip on things.

Everton and Fulham, although they have some good defenders, are quite likely to be in relegation trouble this season, I fear; so, I'm hesitant about going in for any of them at the start of the season. Tarkowski was one of the top performers for 'defcon' points last year; and Branthwaite, if fully fit again, might be almost as good for half a million less; but they might have a bit of a torrid time in the first couple of months, with only two 'soft' fixtures in the first eight gameweeks.

I'm wary of going for anyone from the promoted clubs at the start of the season. Even if they do get their shit together and start making a decent fight to stay up, history tells us that this usually takes at least a few weeks, if not a few months. And picking one of their defenders just because they're cheap usually turns out to be a dangerous false economy; a defender who takes a battering every week can end up with an average points return below 2 per week - which is absolutely worthless. You will at some point, probably sooner rather than later, need to draw on your bench; and if you're going to spend money on a player, you should be spending the money for something rather than nothing, for some actual worthwhile points-potential. I'm sceptical as to whether any of this year's promoted trio will manage to survive, and I suspect only Coventry have a fighting chance. Thus, their 4.0-million-pound defensive options, centre-back Bobby Thomas and full-back Milan van Ewijk might be justifiable picks for an ultra low-cost 'budget enabler' - though, for me, very risky ones. They've probably only achieved their rather high early ownership levels of 8%, 14.5% respectively because they're facing Hull in Gameweek 2.

So, that's it for the defensive half of the equation....

I'll try to get around to a 'Part Two' on the more attacking options tomorrow.

But first, this....

I shall be attempting, a little later today, to put together a few thoughts on this season's initial FPL selection dilemmas.

But I'm still buzzing from that really fantastic World Cup we enjoyed last month, and wanted to revisit one of its outstanding moments: Cabo Verde's stunning extra-time equaliser against Argentina in the 'Round of 16', an absolute pinger from their young full-back, Sidny Lopes Cabral - subsequently voted the 'Goal of the Tournament'.

That was a goal celebrated by the whole world (yes, even Argentinians should have been able to appreciate it, should have relished being made to work so hard for their progression). It's good to have the occasional thing like this that can bring us all together.

TOP TIPS for picking the initial FPL squad

 

Now that the Community Shield game is out of the way (I managed to find a suitably grungy little dive bar, The Shamrock, to enjoy it in), it is reasonable to start thinking about the coming season of Fantasy Premier League for the first time.... Although I still wouldn't actually draft a squad until this Friday afternoon!

In a day or two, I'll try to start putting out a few posts with discussions of the main selection dilemmas of the year. (I've already done one on the key conundrum of the new season: which, if any, of this year's three 'super-premium' players might still be unavoidable picks, despite being so horribly over-priced.)

I am here compiling a summary of some of the key advice I've given on choosing the Initial Squad in this game, with links embedded to my original longer posts on each topic, if you want to look into any of them in a bit more detail.

How to choose the INITIAL SQUAD

This is my comprehensive guide on the main principles to keep in mind. Obviously, a lot of the specific player examples are now out of date, but the basic advice should still be clear enough. [I also have a potentially useful = or encouraging - follow-up post on how to assess if you've done a good job with your squad selection.]

You should also try to avoid falling in thrall to the myth of the 'differential', the misguided belief that players can be worth having just because they are low-owned. This is obvious nonsense; you need to focus on points-potential (within the reference-frames of what else you're doing with your squad, and how much money you've got left), not ownership level. [See What a 'differential' is not... and The true meaning of 'differential' for a fuller discussion on this.]

You might also find it useful to keep in mind these rough scales or tiers of points returns and pricing.

And here are a selection of more specific tips...

Don't take a chance on uncertain starters (or new arrivals)

Players new to the league, players who've had injury problems over the summer, players who might still be a bit fatigued after the World Cup, players facing a lot of possible competition for a regular starting slot:... these all have to be avoided in the initial squad. Early in the season, we have enough problems with unexpected dropouts among players we thought we could rely on as nailed starters, without taking any unnecessary extra risks like this.

And likewise,  Beware of double-ups and treble-ups

In general, you want to avoid over-exposing yourself to any one club, even the strongest of them; but especially at the start of the season - when you just don't know (however 'well' they may have appeared to do in pre-season) what their, or anyone else's, form is going to be like in the opening few games.

Stack the midfield  and  The fifth midfield slot is where the value lies

It is amazing how wilfully blind so many FPL managers are about this most obvious and fundamental element of the game: midfielders earn more points than the other positions, and usually dominate the overall player rankings at the end of the season (typically at least 6 or 7 of the Top 10, often as many as 15 of the Top 20). This simple fact dictates that you should be trying to play all 5 midfielders as often as possible - and that that 5th midfielder is likely to be the squad slot that gives you the biggest differential advantage over your rivals!

 

A good rotation pair can beat a premium keeper

A very basic point about goalkeeper selection - but many people seem to fail to grasp it!

Two mid-price picks beat a premium and a dud

While this point is not as invariably and incontrovertibly true with other positions as it is with goalkeepers,.... it is very nearly so.

How to fill the 'bargain' - 'budget enabler' - spots

At the start of the season, when budget is a bit tight, you can't usually afford to spend much on your 4th and 5th defenders or your 3rd forward, and you might be skimping a bit on your back-up keeper and your 4th/5th midfielders too. But you really need to guard against making false economies - especially in midfield.

Defensive premiums aren't usually worth it

You have to think very, very carefully about spending more than 6.0 million on a defender - because, 9 times out of 10, they just won't be that much, if at all better than several of the cheaper rival picks.

And... The super-premiums aren't usually worth it

The most expensive players each year, in any position, are never 'worth it' in pure value-for-money, points-per-pound terms. But I suggest some other criteria by which to evaluate if it may be worth paying a super-high price for a player.

Attacking returns will still (usually) beat 'defensive points'

'Defensive points' are a novelty in the game, only introduced last year (the 25-26 season), so we're still struggling to assess just what impact they are having. I made this prediction last year that, while the new points would be very nice to have, they probably wouldn't on their own make anyone a preferable pick over someone who offered high attacking returns. Many people are not yet convinced of this because... we happened to have a horrible year last year (the lowest-scoring FPL season ever in midfield!). However, the top performers on these new points, in both midfield and defence, also happened to produce quite a good number of attacking contributions as well: they wouldn't have finished so strongly in the overall rankings if they hadn't done well under both headings; and they still wouldn't have been nearly so high up in the final table in any normal year!!

 

NO-ONE is a 'set-and-forget'

FPL managers often naively assume that all they have to do is guess which players are going to end the season with the most points, pick them all, and then.... hang on to them until they get injured. Um, no - it just doesn't work like that. There are very, very few players - not even the season's top points-producers - who are actually worth hanging on to for the entire season.

You NEED your Bench!

Many people ignore and disparage their Bench. But it is super-important, and it is foolish to 'go light' on it - even at the start of the season.

'Dead men' earn NO POINTS; and they LOSE VALUE

In particular, you cannot afford to leave empty seats on your Bench - with injured or non-starting players.

These three broader overviews of 'how the game works' might also be of interest...

What MAKES THE DIFFERENCE in FPL?

This is a quick round-up of the factors that determine whether you finish the season with a high ranking. (Alas and alack, 'player selection' doesn't feature very high!)

Signs an FPL manager doesn't know what they're doing 

A fairly recent post itemising the most common mistakes we see - even in the squads of supposedly 'top' managers!!

And...  Are you a 'good' FPL manager?

My definitive checklist for identifying your possible handicaps and shortcomings in the game.

And I regularly recommend that if you're going to seek help or inspiration from online advice,... you should confine yourself to some of these excellent tactical analysis channels on Youtube.

You can find other bits and pieces of advice on specific topics like this in my Adages, In a Nutshell, and Top TIPS! series. [I never figured out how to differentiate these strands, and have ended up tagging a lot of posts with two or even all three of the labels. The only consistent distinction is that the Adages are (mostly) quite a bit shorter, and have the main point usefully summarised in the post title!]

And lastly, of course,... Remember - it's mostly LUCK!

And..... Remember The ONE GREAT TRUTH of the game.

The annual conundrum!

 

Every year..... we face this challenge at the start of a new FPL season that our favourite players, who were expensive last year, are even more expensive this year - and seem 'overpriced', perhaps unaffordable.

Last year, at least, only Haaland and Salah were priced at a 'super-premium' level, and I warned in an early post that, the way their two teams were going into the season, it looked unlikely that either of them would have a particularly good year,... and might end up with quite a disappointing one (although I did not anticipate quite how spectacularly Mo Salah's farewell season would fall apart).

Because last year was so epically low-scoring (one of the worst in the game's history; in fact, the worst for midfielders), and because, as yet, no major new talents have transferred in during the current trading window, we are really short of elite-level points-prospects in the game. And hence the top performers in each of the three outfield position categories have been especially aggressively overpriced this year - to the point where, in most years, we'd just accept that they were unacceptably priced, 'priced out' of consideration altogether, and we'd have to find ways of making do without them.

But, as I mentioned the other day, there's such a shortage of obviously 'high value' players in the game at the moment that budget pressure doesn't really seem that acute. In most previous years, there have been so many 'premium' and 'super-premium' players that we'd all probably want, we obviously couldn't have them all - and we had some tough choices to make. This year, with only three to tempt us, it's not that difficult to accommodate them all without leaving the rest of the squad hopelessly weak (although you are probably going to have to overlook a lot of tempting picks in the mid-price range, and leave yourself with a dangerously light bench). And squeezing in one, maybe even two of them, really isn't a bother at all. In the past, it usually would have been; but this year it's not.

But, although we might not face an immediate crisis of simply not being able to afford them, they are, I think, so grotesquely overpriced that we should still hesitate over whether to buy them - any of them. And my instinct is that we should probably only pick one of the three.

I've seen a lot of misguided logic applied to this question - of which, if any, of the three 'super-premiums' to pick for the start of the season - on the online forums over the last few weeks. The commonest line has been that Fernandes is cheaper than Haaland, and thus provides better value-for-money.

There might be something in the idea that if you want to spread more money around the rest of the squad, going without Haaland might give you an edge there. But it's only a very small one. Haaland is a whopping 6.5 million more expensive than the second highest-priced forward option this year, Isak; and there are only six other pretty decent forwards priced within 8 million of him. The two next highest-priced midfielders after Fernandes are still a substantial 2.5 million pounds cheaper; but there are 118 midfielders - some of them really rather appealing FPL prospects - priced between 6 and 7 million pounds cheaper than him. So, although the price gap is scarily big with Haaland, there isn't really that much competition for his place; with Bruno, there is - there are a lot of other players to choose from in midfield, at much lower prices.

The key thing here is that your 'super-premium' players never give value-for-money in pure points-per-pound terms (Salah's record-breaking season was arguably an exception - but a unique one!); and so you have to evaluate them on completely different criteria from most of your initial squad picks. Their absolute cost (not just their price itself, but the consequent 'opportunity cost' in how far you might be going short in other areas of your squad) is one part of it; but, as I just said above, I don't think that's really in play this year, because there are so few players at high price-points now (and the ones there are didn't show any convincing form last season, for one reason or another) that budget pressure isn't particularly acute. 

No, the main thing you have to consider is the absolute points advantage they offer you over the next best options in their position category.

Haaland - who had a pretty so-so year, really, given what he's capable of when everything clicks for him and his team - was 58 points ahead of the next best forward, and nearly 100 points ahead of the 5th best. And it's not unreasonable to hope that he might do at least a little better this year. He really looks as though he has the capacity to return a 250-point season with relative ease; and he's the only current player who looks like he could potentially have a 300-point season in him.

Fernandes - who had a really outstanding year, his second-best ever (and is really unlikely to surpass that, or even get all that close to it again) - still finished narrowly behind Haaland in the overall ranking, and only 33 points ahead of the next best midfielder, Semenyo; and 55 points ahead of the 5th best (barely half the margin that Haaland had). And this in a year when almost all the usual highest-returning midfielders had dreadful years due to injuries or whatever....  It is almost certain that Bruno Fernandes will do a little less well (perhaps quite a lot less well) this year, and that several other competitors in that position category will at least get close to him. I'd be surprised if at least one or two don't out-perform him this year. Maybe.... someone like Szoboszlai, who's priced 5.5 million pounds cheaper!

Fernandes was performing near the top of his envelope last year. And Haaland wasn't; nowhere near. So, the potential at least is there for Haaland to do much better this year, while it would be extremely unlikely for Fernandes even to equal last season's total. Quite apart from the statistical improbability of performing near your absolute theoretical peak two years in a row, our Bruno, bless him, is aging: he turns 32 shortly - and at this age, your physical performance can drop off a cliff at any moment. Even if he does manage to sustain excellent levels of fitness and sharpness for a few more years, it is pretty much certain that his very best years are now behind him. Moreover, it's always seemed to me that Bruno is a player who thrives on disaster: he plays his best when the team around him is terrible - he really digs deep to try to carry the whole damn team, and often he manages to pull it off. That was happening for much of last season, with many other key players injured, Sesko not being trusted with a regular start, and Cunha and Mbeumo struggling to fit in, never quite regaining the sensational form they'd shown with their previous clubs the year before. If things all start coming together under Carrick, these other star performers will start taking the limelight, and Bruno can lapse into a more supporting role. I still expect him to have an excellent season, and very likely be United's highest points-scorer again (although I have a suspicion it might be Mbeumo this year; or perhaps even Dorgu, if he gets a regular start on the wing); but he won't be the prime/sole driving force behind their success, as he was for so much of last season. And so.... he might have an excellent season without breaking 200 points this time.

In my judgement, then, Haaland might do even better than last season; and, since there isn't much competition in the forward position at the moment (unless Isak recovers his best Newcastle form and manages to stay fit all season and doesn't suffer any rotation with Ekitike or Gakpo - all of which seem like pretty big ifs), he's pretty much certain to again be the highest-scoring forward and quite likely to outscore his closest positional rival by at least 30-40 points, quite possibly more than twice that much. While Fernandes is likely to do at least a little worse than last season, might not even be the highest-scoring midfielder this time, and it's unlikely to be by all that much of a margin even if he is.

On that basis, it looks like you'd be paying a 4 or 5-million-pound premium for Bruno Fernandes for.... little or nothing. While for Haaland, you're paying the extra 6 or 8 million for a very substantial - really unique! - differential advantage in the forward position category. And that..... is almost certainly worth it.

And Gabriel?? Well, I don't see much of an argument there. No, he's not going to be worth it this season.

He's priced at 8 million because he had an exceptional season, he got a significant lift to his points total through the newly introduced 'defensive points', all of his defensive peers at Arsenal missed chunks of time with injuries, and all of the other top clubs had pretty poor years, and his other closest rivals in the defensive rankings (Tarkowski, Senesi, Lacroix, Truffert, Mukiele, etc.) were all playing for mid-table teams who had rather up-and-down seasons. I don't see any of those things happening again. And frankly, in the past, I've hesitated to buy even an attacking-contributions monster like Alexander-Arnold or Cancelo when they've been priced at 7 million or more; 8 million, for a defender, is just stupid. I'm not sure that I fancy any of the 6.5 or 6.0 options in that position all that much this year!

Like Bruno Fernandes, he had a gap last year of 30 or more points over his closest positional rivals. But, exactly like with Bruno Fernandes, I doubt if he's going to do that well again, and it's reasonable to expect that at least some of his rivals might do a lot better this time. This is not to say anything against Gabriel: I'd say he is - arguably, at least - the best defender in the Premier League at the moment. And Arsenal are likely to be, once more, the best defensive team in the league. He is quite likely to again be the No. 1 ranked defender in FPL this year. But.... it's not a racing certainty; and it's not likely to be by a massive margin. For me, both of those things need to be true for him to be worth even 7.0 or 6.5 million, let alone 8.0 million!

Last year was a freakish season for him. 19 clean sheets?! Surely not going to be quite that good again. Tons of defensive points?! That was because Arsenal were actually quite ropey at the start of the season, and then had another big wobble approaching the final run-in; if they play better, if they play consistently to their true potential - players like Gabriel (and Zubimendi and Rice, and the other defenders) won't be nearly as busy defensively this season. 8 attacking contributions?! (Only 3 goals in that; I'd thought it had been more!) Again, not likely to be repeated. The rule-change allowing referees to penalise jostling fouls before a set-piece is delivered will greatly reduce the effectiveness of set-piece routines for nicking goals, which Arsenal relied on so heavily last year. No doubt new tactical ideas can be worked out which don't rely on unfair wrestling prior to the kick, but... they're unlikely to be quite so productive. And even without this sea-change in the rules environment, Gabi had been becoming rather too obviously the almost invariable target man for Arsenal's set-pieces. Opposing teams would have got better at defending his threat, and Arsenal would have had to start varying things up a lot to maintain their effectiveness at converting set-piece opportunities.

So, I can see Gabi and Arsenal again dominating the defensive numbers this season, and him being very probably the best individual FPL defender. But I doubt if he'll get above 200 points again; maybe not above 180. And he won't beat his closest rivals by all that much. Which, when he's priced at 2.5 million more than most of them,.... he needs to.

So, my summary position on the Super-Premiums Conundrum for this season is:

Haaland - YES: almost certainly going to be 'essential', because he's the only current player with a proven potential for regular returns well over 200 points per season. It's 'worth' paying pretty much whatever they're asking for such a unique advantage in the game - particularly when none of the other forward options look very convincing to return even three-quarters of Haaland's points.

Fernandes - PROBABLY NOT: unlikely to do quite as well as last season, and unlikely to have a very substantial advantage, if any at all, over the next best in his position. (He might, indeed, be outscored by his United teammates Mbeumo, Cunha, or Dorgu; or they might at least get fairly close to him, for much less money - so, he could be ruled out on club quota, as well as 'value' for money.)

Gabriel - DEFINITELY NOT: won't do nearly as well as last season, and has no obvious massive advantage over his own cheaper teammates, or the 'best of the rest' in the defender category, many of whom are 2.5 or 3.0-million pounds cheaper.

Of course, fans of these players or their clubs, or FPL managers who've included these players in their early drafts, will take these opinions very much amiss. I'm sorry: it's nothing personal. It's just.... common sense.