The Great FPL Paradox: the 'best player' is not always the 'best pick'

 

This is perhaps the hardest idea for most Fantasy Football managers to wrap their heads around. 

It seems obvious, surely, that the best players are going to produce the most points; and the players who produce the most points are the ones you want - right??

Well, NO - not necessarily.

1)  The objectively 'best' all-around players may not always have their excellence fully reflected in their Fantasy points returns.

This has generally been particularly true of defenders and defensive midfielders; and that under-rewarding in the FPL points system has only been slightly ameliorated by the introduction of new points for 'defensive contributions' (the number of points available is quite small, the threshold for earning them is too high, and the tallying of the eligible contributions is too obscure and unreliable for them to have all that much impact, or to improve the overall 'fairness' of the scoring system in the game). But it's also true of more creative midfielders who may be great playmakers, but don't produce all that many attacking contributions (the only things that get any direct recognition in the game; pre-assists and pre-pre-assists are often far more skillful and more valuable than the final credited 'assist', but gain no merit). There are some very, very good players who just aren't really worth considering for an FPL squad. If you allow yourself to be swayed by your appreciation of football, by your recognition of a player's talents - rather than his points potential - you will make some misguided selections.

2)  The players who got the most FPL points last year will not necessarily produce the same returns this year.

Ah, people may object, but we're not interested in the unregarded midfield dynamos or tough-as-nails central defenders who hold their teams together without often earning many Fantasy points; we just look at last year's points tallies and pick the guys with the biggest numbers. But, unfortunately, that tends to be a flawed approach too. There can be all sorts of reasons - known (change of club, change of manager, change of tactics, change of surrounding personnel, improvements by key rivals, injury, aging...) or unknown (the 'headspace', form suddenly falls off a cliff for no obvious reason...) - why a player's performance in one season can be much better or worse than it was the season before. Last year's data is a very useful guideline - but it's not definitive or infallible.

3)  And this is the kicker: the players who will get the most points this year... are still not invariably the 'best picks' for the game.

Naive FPL managers often imagine that if they had a time-machine that would allow them to view the year-end player points totals at the start of the season, they could just pick that 'perfect squad' of all the highest points-scorers, and they'd win the global title. But they wouldn't; they probably wouldn't even come all that close. To attain the topmost reaches of the global rankings, you really have to milk more points from every slot in your starting eleven than almost any individual player will earn in the season.

Many of the highest points-scorers, alas, are very patchy, very streaky in their returns: they'll have a few spells of super-hot form but long runs of blanks in between. And it's simply not worth hanging on to those players for extended periods, hoping to catch one of their hot spells - when you could have tried out three or four other players in the meantime, none of whom would have done any worse during the blanking period, and at least one or two of whom (if you correctly recognised when they were coming into good form) could have done substantially better.

Season totals don't necessarily matter: you have to try to maximise your returns for each starting slot by frequently rotating through the players in the hottest form. A player who returns very high season totals and is very consistent in their returns across the season may be worth regarding as a long-term hold; but they are very, very rare (in fact, even Salah or Haaland in their best seasons were not usually worth hanging on to for the entire season).

Moreover, you have to make your picks in the context of the overall selection landscape: you have to weigh up each squad choice in terms of its likely differential advantage over an alternate selection - i.e., how much of a points-lift can you get from this player compared to the next best candidate in his position, or another candidate at a similar price-point across all the positions, or to the other players you might choose from his club?

David Raya is now pretty unarguably the best goalkeeper in the Premier League. But he isn't the best pick for FPL, because he probably won't do that much better than the next best, he's too expensive this year, and you can usually wring more points from a good rotation pair than a single goalkeeper pick (and there are other possible picks from Arsenal that will probably give you more of a points-advantage than him).

Similarly with Gabriel: he is an absolutely awesome defender, probably the best in the league. But for FPL... he's again too expensive this year, and not likely to outscore his cheaper Arsenal teammates this time (his attacking returns will probably be much lower this year; and Calafiori, in particular, offers much more attacking threat, and seems to have a more secure start this year; I'd bet that Timber will too, once he's fit again).

And so too with Bruno Fernandes: he's looking in fabulous form again, he is probably the best all-around midfielder in the league at the moment - and he might well again be the highest-scoring FPL midfielder for the season. But when he's priced at 12 million pounds, the 'opportunity cost' of all the other players you have to do without in order to afford him is probably too much.

The same argument can be made about Erling Haaland; but, although his price-tag is enormous, I feel that his unique differential advantage might yet justify it. He does seem likely to massively outscore any other forward, and if things really go well for him, he might be the one current player with the potential for a 300-point season. However, if it appears that Alex Isak or Joao Pedro could run him close for points returns in the forward category, then he too might become expendable.

NB: All of these players I just name-checked are likely to be the highest points-scorers in their position categories in FPL this year; that doesn't matter. What matters is their relative value to your squad in terms of their advantage over their next-best alternatives, and how much benefit you could reap from spending their fees across the rest of your squad instead.

FPL feels like a 'bad romance' - Monday Music Break No. 3

Postmodern Jukebox started off as a hobby project by American pianist Scott Bradlee around 15 years ago, where he'd occasionally assemble a few of his musician friends to showcase his penchant for crafting novel arrangements of recent pop hits in more retro styles like Motown or Big Band Jazz. But before long it would explode in popularity and grow steadily to become one of the biggest music channels on Youtube, with more than 6.5 million subscribers today. (He still runs his own much smaller, self-named channel, where he mostly posts solo piano performances.)  PMJ, indeed, is now a global brand, with many dozens of amazing vocalists and musicians acting as regular or occasional collaborators on the project, and multiple touring groups performing its most popular creations live all around the world. And new videos continue to drop around once a month. (They were more like twice a month in the early days, perhaps even weekly for a while; there are now just over 500 videos posted on the channel. I shall probably be returning to them often for inspiration in this new weekly series of mine of musical asides.)

I happened upon the PMJ phenomenon mid-way through its history, about 7 or 8 years ago; and I made it one of my 'Covid projects' to work my way through the channel's entire back-catalogue (which probably makes me one of a fairly small percentage of their millions of fans who've actually heard every single thing they've done). This is one of my absolute favourites, a reimagining of Lady Gaga's mega-hit Bad Romance as a 1920s jazz number, performed by the fabulous cabaret singer Ariana Savalas (daughter of the popular Greek-American actor, Telly, best known as the titular detective in the long-running 1970s cop show Kojak) - with one of the best whistling solos I have ever heard,.... and the additional bonus of some spirited tap-dance breaks from the effervescent Sarah Reich. Pure joy.

But damn, FPL is a classic bad romance, isn't it? We devote so much effort to it, we give it all of our attention, we want so desperately to gain its favour,.... for it to be nice to us. And again and again it spurns us, dismisses us, slights our efforts, makes us feel wretched and worthless. We come to hate the thing we love; and yet, somehow, we still love it.

Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 4

I'll try to continue with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: No possible argument with Axel Disasi's sending off: he went in with studs raised and caught Jack Clarke just below the knee.

It didn't make a lot of difference to the result, but Reinildo's second yellow card against Arsenal looked unjust.

Foden's early red card at Old Trafford was certainly 'harsh', but fairly inevitable: even though the contact was utterly trivial - a mere twitch of his upstretched legs towards Bruno's midriff - it did look petulant and retaliatory. However, Fernandes was also clearly at fault for having a niggly little kick at Foden's buttock as he lay on the ground immediately prior (and for play-acting so egregiously to try to get his opponent sent off for the offence), and might well have deserved a red card himself - if the rules were being applied absolutely strictly and absolutely consistently. Common sense would suggest that a yellow card for each player would have been a fairer response; but referees seem to have very little leeway to exercise 'common sense' any more. Ultimately, though, this sending-off was only consequential for the small percentage of FPL managers who rashly own Foden; United were miles off it, and were pretty comprehensively outplayed by City throughout the match - after the sending-off even more so than before it.

There was not too much doubt about Taiwo Awoniyi's offence, though: he did fairly clearly throw his shoulder or the back of his upper-arm into De Cuyper's face as the Brighton man rushed towards him - apparently retaliation for a small clash between the two a few moments earlier.

Red cards not awarded:  Jason McAtee was perhaps fortunate to get only a yellow for his wild challenge on Maatsen - not 'violent', perhaps, but rash and cynical, and it did injure the player. The Villa left-back was unable to continue, which left Villa with 10 men in the closing minutes, as Emery had used all his substitutes early.

Penalties awarded: The penalty award against Konsa looked harsh; behind-the-goal views showed that Ballard was grabbing his shirt rather than vice versa, and had probably dragged him off balance. You can see why the grappling may have looked different to the referee; but that was surely an instance where VAR should have intervened to question the initial decision. Arsenal's late penalty, though, looked even more dubious: there was a little bit of holding by Reinildo, but that was outside the area; his challenge on the edge of the box appeared to play the ball (so, his second yellow was also unjust; but VAR again remained silent).

Penalties not awarded:  

Tight/dubious offsides: Liam Delap appeared to have blasted home a second goal from Gibbs-White's cross - but someone (Gibbs-White, presumably) was flagged offside. That was an utterly baffling call; and the SAOT picture was not shared to explain it.

Timber headed home powerfully from Odegaard's curling free-kick. On TV, he didn't look offside (and we were never shown the SAOT graphic): the supposed margin can't have been more than an inch or two!

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: While Haaland's goal did feel 'just' on the balance of play (United were never really in the game, before or after their visitors were reduced to 10 men), it was a very, very odd decision. Apparently, Pro Ref ('Professional Game Referees', the newly rebranded version of the former PGMOL) has admitted a procedural lapse, in that the VAR team was mistaken not to recommend that referee Michael Oliver conduct a review of the 'subjective' offside issue as to whether Enzo Fernandez's attempted diving header was 'interfering with play'. This was a grave oversight; but it wouldn't necessarily mean that the decision itself was wrong (although it would be hard to argue that a player diving across the last defender and right in front of the goalkeeper is not distracting them from other threats beyond the far post...). However, I felt the bigger issue here was that Haaland himself had looked offside anyway - and not by a small margin, by a foot or two! And yet when the decisive SAOT graphic was finally revealed, it was another of these situations we've seen quite a lot of already this season where the pieture appeared significantly out-of-sync with what we'd seen with the naked eye, as if the freeze-frame had been taken at least a few tenths of a second later than the actual delivery of the ball by Gvardiol out on the left of the box: all the United defenders were about half a yard nearer to the goal-line than they had looked in real life. And even then, there was no visible margin: the tip of Patrick Dorgu's outstretched toe appeared to be exactly level with Haaland's leading shoulder, not ahead of it - not even by one millimetre!!  This decision felt very clearly WRONG: and it might be hugely consequential not just for this one game, but for the eventual title race.  It suggests to me that the SAOT system is fundamentally unreliable, and needs to be suspended until they've worked out how to improve its implementation. (I suspect the problems lie more with how officials are using and interpreting the technology's outputs than with the technology itself; and with the inappropriate finickiness of the Offside Law itself - it simply is not practicable, or desirable, to attempt to adjudicate offside situations down to a matter of inches, a margin decided toeneails, eyebrows, and shirt ruffles...)  It seems to have been argued subsequently that Haaland was in fact 'played onside' by a tiny deflection on the cross off Dorgu's boot. But that is even more baffling: a) it was not clear from TV pictures that there was any such deflection; and b) I thought the rule was now that deflections did not count, that only a controlled attempt to play the ball by a defender was considered a 'deliberate touch' for these purposes (that would seem fair and commonsensical, anyway; and it does seem to have been how these incidents have been interpreted for the last several years); and c) this was not explained as the rationale for the decision (the SAOT graphic appeared to be attempting to justify it on the basis that Haaland had in fact been in an 'onside' position 'behind' Dorgu, regardless of any touch on the ball by Dorgu).

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Keith Andrews surprisingly left out Michael Kayode in favour of Aaron Hickey (one wonders if there was some fitness issue behind that; although Kayode did come on for the last 20 minutes).

Jaydee Canvot has apparently had a falling-out with his manager, not even being included on the bench against Ipswich; new loanee Honest Ahanor was surprisingly given an immediate start. Walter Benitez started in goal because of a late injury for Dean Henderson.

Forest lost Nikola Milenkovic and Jair Cunha to late injuries in training, so had to use full-back Ola Aina on the right side of the back-three (a lucky reprieve for a player who'd looked certain to lose his place to new signing Daniel Munoz).

Iraola, worried about fatigue after the midweek Champions League game against Atleti, subbed off Munoz and Gravenberch just shy of the hour. (At least it was a relief to see Gakpo - who had been rumoured to be facing a possible long spell on the sidelines with a thigh-muscle injury - able to play a full half-hour and more.)

White and Lewis-Skelly were replaced at half-time by Timber and Guimaraes, after a sterile first-half in which Arsenal failed to make any impression against Sunderland.

Luke Shaw, troubled with a muscle problem all week, was unable to play on Sunday, and was replaced at left-back by Patrick Dorgu. Nico O'Reilly was sufficiently recovered from his back trouble to make an appearance from the bench, but as I'd mused the other day, does now seem to have been edged out of any chance of a regular start by Enzo Fernandez and Josko Gvardiol. Because of the challenge of having to play most of the game with 10 men, Maresca took a tactical decision to replace Cherki with Ndiaye at half-time (a cruel blow for the nearly 30% of managers who now own Cherki; I suffered a similar vexation a few years ago with Luis Diaz being withdrawn because of a sending-off for Van Dijk).

Near misses:  Late on at Bournemouth, substitute Ben Gannon-Doak's swift break down the left ended with him shooting powerfully from the edge of the box - but the effort deflected off a defender's shin and looped on to the post.

Shortly after his opening goal, Liam Delap met Munoz's cross at the near-post but powered his header into the side-netting.

Marcus Rashford curled a sweet 25-yard free-kick against the face of the near-post midway through the first-half, with Donnarumma struggling to get across. After the break, Kobbie Mainoo cracked an open-play effort from similar range against the same left-hand post - but those were United's only decent efforts in a fairly sterile game. In the second-half, Enzo Fernandez had a cracking curler from the same kind of distance brilliantly finger-tipped on to the post by Lammens.

Big misses/big saves: There was a bit of a comedy-of-errors early on at Villa Park, when Murillo deflected a shot towards goal off the back of his heel, it hit Sels rather than being saved by him, the ball immediately rebounded to Murillo whose hurried attempt to clear smashed against the inside of the post and fortuitously hit Sels again; but at least the subsequent follow-up attempt on goal was well blocked by the Forest keeper. Neco Williams was teed up for a great chance from just inside the box, but lashed his effort miles over the bar. Schlager's diving header was brilliantly saved at the foot of his post by Suzuki - but ultimately to no avail, as Forest found a winner shortly afterwards anyway.

Bournemouth's new centre-back Antonio Silva ghosted in behind to meet Tavernier's delicious delivery from a free-kick, but put his header wide of the post. Kelleher did well to parry Kluivert's powerful low shot, but the rebound fell straight to Rayan - who rushed his effort and skied it over the bar.

Reece James's 30-yard free-kick was probably curling just wide of the top corner, but Tzolakis came flying across his goal impressively to tip it away. Palmer played Rogers in for a golden opportunity to secure a 3-2 win, but he shot straight at the keeper. A rather shakey-looking Emi Martinez spilled a long-range effort from Slater in front of Oli McBurnie, but was able to save his blushes by blocking the close-range follow-up effort with a foot. Hull had an even better chance to nick a late victory when Giles's delicious curling cross was met at the far post by substitute Cho, but he side-footed tamely at the keeper.

Anan Khalaili spurned a late chance to claim a win for 10-man Palace when he blazed a volley over the bar after Scherpen had patted Hughes's teasing cross straight at him.

Victor Munoz had a dangerous looping header from a corner well tipped over by Leno - about the only good chance in a very drab game at Anfield. Towards the end of a drab game, Isak managed to connect with a Szoboszlai corner at the near-post, but glanced his header across the face of the goal and wide.

Bukayo Saka ghosted in behind in the opening minutes (onside by a whisker?) to meet Rice's teasing cross - but somehow failed to make a proper connection with the ball, allowing Roefs an easy claim. Shortly afterwards, Havertz unleashed a crisp volley on the swivel that Roefs had to tip over the bar. And then, of course, Raya pulled off a superb penalty save from Le Fée to keep Arsenal in the game (a huge FPL points lift for that - but it shouldn't have been a penalty!!). Shortly after Arsenal took the lead, Sunderland somehow failed to convert a series of chances in a penalty area scramble - Mukiele ultimately back-heeling towards goal, but the effort being well blocked by Konsa.

Bryan Mbeumo fluffed two good chances late in the game: stealing in between Gvardiol and Dias for a free header, but directing the effort clean across the face of goal; and then ghosting in clear behind in the middle of the box in the closing minutes, but firing straight at Donnarumma.

Although Coventry were utterly woeful defensively, they did create a lot of moments of danger, and 'Man of the Match' Bart Verbruggen ended up with a 'saved xG' of nearly 2, producing 3 particularly outstanding saves: the best an acrobatic full-length stop from Rudoni's volleyed cross-shot early in the game, although his tipping over Onyeka's fierce dipping volley was almost as good, and the late save at his near-post from Thomas-Assante excellent as well.

Outstanding goals: Liam Delap pinged one in from nearly 30 yards out. Villa's equaliser, a powerful header from their new Brazilian winger, Alysson, converting McGinn's cross, was also excellent.

Jorgen Strand Larsen's firm, low cross-shot into the far corner was the best of 5 good goals at Selhurst Park.

Bruno Guimaraes opened his account for Arsenal with a banger into the top corner from nearly 23 yards out.

As Coventry's composure and morale collapsed in the last quarter of the game, Brighton had a little bit of a mini 'Goal of the Month' competition all by themselves: Coventry were repeatedly guilty of not closing their opponents down, allowing them far too much time and space to contemplate shots from distance (and goalkeeper Rushworth may have been a little off for those two late goals as well, perhaps having his confidence eroded by the sudden landslide his team were facing); but it is odd that Brighton managed to conjure two such outstanding finishes in quick succession: Dunk's thumping 30-yard dipper right into the top-left corner is surely a front-runner for September's 'Goal of the Month', but Ayari's low drive from just outside the box a few minutes later was nearly as good.

Outstanding performances: Bart Verbruggen, rather surprisingly, in a game in which his team ran rampant in attack, had to produce one of the best goalkeeping performances of the season to keep Brighton ahead.

Big mistakes: Djorde Petrovic gave up 2 points by passing the ball straight to a lurking Kevin Schade late in the game; Schade finished very coolly, chipping into the open net - but it was a gift of a chance.

Ipswich keeper Kjell Scherpen passed the ball directly to Adam Wharton early on, but Wharton's first-time 'shot' passed it straight back to him!

Antonin Kinsky also produced a similar lapse, giving the ball away to Dewsbury-Hall waiting in the middle just outside the penalty area - but he made amends by managing to block the Everton midfielders effort with his legs.

Bad luck/good luck: Leif Davis nearly bagged a second goal for himself with a looping header in the final minute of regular time; the effort crashed back off the face of the crossbar allowing substitute Zian Flemming a tap-in, so Davis claimed a second assist instead.

Roefs very nearly saved Saka's penalty.

FPL weirdness: Goalkeepers receive far too little credit under the BPS: Verbruggen was universally acclaimed as the 'Man of the Match' for his outstanding performance in the Brighton goal, but failed to get close to even 1 bonus point because his teammates scored so many goals up the other end.

Unexpected results:  Villa are usually tough to beat at home, but they have started the season poorly, and usually struggle with stamina after a European game; and Forest tend to get especially fired up for Midlands derbies - so, I was predicting a Forest win in this one; but many people were not. Most people seem to have been expecting a comfortable home win for Chelsea - but I'd actually predicted a tight game and a possible 2-2 draw. Palace were also probably expected to get a home win against struggling Ipswich; but Ipswich have looked much better than Coventry, while Palace have looked very shakey at the back - a draw might have been the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't really call the Ipswich win a 'surprise'. Although Iraola's Liverpool haven't yet looked all that convincing, they would have been expected to win fairly comfortably at home against a frail Fulham. And I wouldn't have predicted a floundering Spurs would have been able to keep a clean sheet - even at home, against a not particularly incisive Everton.

And surely very few people were expecting Sunderland to make Arsenal struggle so much; their xG was actually nearly as good as their visitors', and if Le Fée had converted their penalty, the result might have been different.

Brighton were fancied to get a win, perhaps quite a big win, against woeful Coventry; but the 5-0 thrashing was ultimately somewhat fortuitous, as the home side unravelled due to Awoniyi's silly sending-off offence early in the second-half, and a fairly soft penalty award fairly soon afterwards. Coventry actually created the better chances, and with only slightly better luck might have been able to stay on terms.

Almost all of Saturday's games contained significant elements of the unexpected, and the FPL 'Team of the Week' yet again includes a fair number of randoms; Raya, Gvardiol, Schade, Gross and Joao Pedro are the only high-owned representatives in it. Despite expected big returns for Arsenal and Chelsea players, the global average was still only a relatively modest 42 points after Saturday, but has eventually climbed to a fairly respectable 63 points. The thrashing of poor Coventry by Brighton - not fully 'expected' or deserved, I would say! - was particularly consequential for FPL, with 17%-owned Pascal Gross being credited with 2 assists as well as being gifted a fairly soft penalty to convert for a 17-point haul, while Maxim De Cuyper nabbed 1 assist and a clean sheet for 11 points; if you had one or both of these, you had a pretty good gameweek! If (like me...) you felt that Brighton's prospects against Coventry were not overwhelmingly strong enough to make up for their daunting run of fixtures from now until early December, then... you got slammed. 

With so many bizarre incidents and near-misses, several absolute bangers of goals, 2 goals ruled out for invisible 'offsides', 2 pretty terrible penalty awards on Saturday, and an arguably missed red card for McAtee, the controversial sending-off for Foden and the massive cock-up on the game-deciding offside call at Old Trafford, I'm afraid this is now a 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', much the most eccentric gameweek of the season so far; and, sadly, 'back to normal' for chaotic refereeing, after an unusually good opening few weeks to the season.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW4 (26/27)

Remarkably, despite a heavy midweek schedule (Bournemouth, Palace, Sunderland, Hull, Newcastle, Chelsea and Leeds involved in League Cup ties; Arsenal, City, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Aston Villa in the Champions League), we seem to have suffered hardly any new injuries this week - so this can be a very short roundup! [I'll try to update later, if there's an expected flood of bad news at today's press conferences!]

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 4?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The most consequential injury of the week is a thigh strain for Cody Gakpo, which kept him out of Wednesday's Champions League win over Atleti. Iraola hasn't been drawn yet on how serious it is, and the FPL injury flag so far rates him as having a '75% chance' of turning out against Fulham this weekend; but the rumours suggest he could be sidelined for at least 3-4 weeks. After his excellent start to the season (3 assists and a goal in the opening 3 games), over 600,000 people had transferred him in this week; since news of the injury broke, nearly 300,000 have transferred him out! Gakpo's absence facilitated an immediate start for Bradley Barcola on the left wing on Wednesday night (but he didn't exactly cover himself in glory - fluffing an excellent one-on-one chance; as, unfortunately, is his wont).

Ben White was limping at the end of Wednesday's Napoli game, but Arteta has claimed he has no ongoing problem. If he were unable to start against Sunderland, Hincapie might come into the centre allowing Konsa to move out to the right; or - preferable, I would think - Hincapie might play at left-back with Calafiori switching to the right. With Saliba still a long way off returning, Timber only just back in training, and Mosquera still limping with a muscle problem, Arsenal are stretched a bit thin at the back.

Matty Cash missed Villa's trip to Bruges on Tuesday with 'muscle soreness': doesn't sound too bad, but he's a slight doubt for this weekend.

Nathan Collins had to come off against Sunderland last week with a calf problem, and is expected to be out for a month. The young Austrian, Jannik Schuster, newly signed from RB Salzburg, is his likely replacement.

Nico O'Reilly was a late withdrawal from last week's game against Coventry (handing an 'unexpected' immediate start to Enzo Fernandez), complaining of a back problem in the warm-up. Maresca seems hopeful he could be available again this weekend; but a regular start for him must now be in doubt anyway, with the arrival of Fernandez and Bouaddi in central midfield, and Gvardiol looking likely to again become the favoured left-back.

Luke Shaw was rested in the Champions League in midweek, apparently suffering from a muscle problem of some sort.

Newcastle's impressive Bosnian right-back Amar Dedic felt a hamstring problem in Tuesday's League Cup tie against Milwall and was withdrawn at half-time. He was another player riding a wave of FPL popularity, with over 425,000 transfers in this week - but has now quickly seen 125,000 transfers out. With Tino Livramento only just back in training after a long lay-off, it seems likely Lewis Miley would have to fill in for Dedic if he's unable to start.

It's just been revealed that Sunderland's Romaine Mundle has recently had to undergo knee surgery, and will be out for some months.

Mykhailo Mudryk has picked up an ankle injury - but only around 7,000 people own him anyway (I'm surprised it's that many!!).

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Villa's Joao Gomes is completing his three-match ban this week, and will be available again next weekend.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

There were signs of improvement from Coventry, Spurs, and Villa last week - but I still wouldn't consider going near any of them for FPL picks (with one possible exception: see below). I can't think of any individual players who were worryingly awful last week - but, as I just mentioned above, Nico O'Reilly seems likely to be squeezed out of a regular start at City now by a combination of Gvardiol, Fernandez, and Bouaddi; Phil Foden might be under similar rotation - or exclusion - pressure because of the form of Cherki, Ndiaye, and Semenyo.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

There's been a bit of a reaction against Newcastle players in FPL this week, after their disappointing home performance against Bournemouth; but I think Anthony Elanga, Yoane Wissa, and Harvey Barnes are still looking very promising attacking options (pick one, not all three).

Alexander Isak was starting to look back to his best with two slick finishes last week - but both were set up by Cody Gakpo, who's now injured, so there might still be some doubts about how consistent his returns will be in this rebuilding Liverpool side.

Although Villa are still struggling a little bit, their new Japanese keeper Zion Suzuki has looked extremely impressive.

Despite the almost inevitable loss to Arsenal last week, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, and Joao Pedro continue to look like consistent attacking threats (and again in Wednesday's League Cup thrashing of Leeds); but I'd go for just one, or at most two of these; many folks are rashly rushing in for all three!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (111)

 

"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so."

Douglas Adams

Dear Douglas was one of the only people I've had a huge fanboy crush on (when I was a boy....), having grown up loving the original radio version of The Hitch-Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy. I was lucky enough to meet him a couple of times when I was a college student. An incredibly wise and funny man - gone far too soon.

Watching the world go by...

 

One of the nicest things about just watching the world go by.... is that sometimes... it doesn't go by.

I was back in Phnom Penh last week. It is a densely populated and tumultuous city. And yet, from time to time, everyone somehow disappears, and even busy streets right in the heart of town will seem strangely deserted for an hour or two. And my regular guesthouse has this tiny but comfortable little balcony, allowing me to look down on whatever is happening, or not happening, in the street below. One of my favourite spots in the world at the moment. 

A comfy chair, a refreshing drink, a book to read, and a restful view - what more does one need from life?

A better-than-blank from your FPL captain once in a while would be nice; but it's not an essential part of the 'good life'.

Another way of looking at it...

 

I always say that the only 'experts' I would look to for assistance with my Fantasy squad decisions are tactical analysts who talk about the real-world game of football, rather than just the nuances of FPL. And I compiled a list of my favourites last year.

I recently discovered another young analyst on Youtube, Lucas Sutherland, who looks as though he has some very worthwhile content. He approaches match analysis from a coaching perspective, and this latest video of his suggests a series of different lenses through which to approach trying to break down and understand key game incidents.

He has a website where you can also view all of his past videos, and sign up for a newsletter, and get a match analysis template.

A couple of his earliest videos provide a very nice basic introduction to developing some useful habits for closer in-game analysis, here and here (the second, longer one has some particularly interesting insights on how Chelsea managed to get the better of Manchester City in the 2021 Champions League Final).

He's also done an interesting review of what AI video analysis is now capable of.

When to play the Free Hit?

 

This topic comes to prominence this week because so many FPL managers somehow thought that last week - Gameweek 3 - was not merely a suitable, but a necessary, inevitable occasion for them to use the chip; and many more, it seems, are now succumbing to the same folly in Gameweek 4.

I covered the factors affecting the Free Hit decision in full detail last year, but... here's a quick recap.

For the second half of the season, you have to hang on to the Free Hit in the expectation that you will need it to dig you out of a hole in one of the blank gameweeks caused by the League Cup Final, and the FA Cup Semi-Finals and Final. And if, by some happy chance, you find you don't need it for that (occasionally it happens that few of the big teams are affected by the fixture clashes with these Cup games, and you might be able to dance around the inconvenience with some saved-up Free Transfers), it's quite fun to deploy it as a late-season 'smart-bomb' to help you through one of the final rounds of a mini-league cup competition.

For the first-half of the season, though, you have two choices: a) save it for a possible emergency; or b) use it opportunistically to potentially boost your points returns in a gameweek with an unusual set of fixtures.

a)  Emergencies

It is possible to be hit with multiple short-term injuries (and suspensions) all at once, particularly when fatigue and miserable weather combine with the absurd fixture congestion at the end of the year. You don't want to be wasting transfers moving short-term absentees out of your squad and back in again; and if there's a chance that most of them might only miss a single gameweek, it's nice to be able to use your Free Hit to see you through that short-term crisis - until you find out if you might have to spend some 'hits' on any remaining problems the following week. There is also a small - but non-negligible - risk of late postponements for freak reasons such as foul weather or terrorism or pandemic, which can also leave you wanting to make multiple changes for one week only. I think there's usually so little reliable value in using the Free Hit as a 'bonus chip' that you should certainly consider saving it until the latter part of December, to guard against such a possibility of unforeseen calamity.

b)  Opportunistic points boost

You can try this when most of your usual squad players are facing particularly challenging fixtures and/or most of the gameweek's apparently 'easy' fixtures are for teams you don't have much representation from (these two circumstances frequently coincide, but not invariably so; your regular players in an averagely-difficult fixture will probably outperform players from lesser teams even with a very easy fixture; so, you don't really want to consider this option for the chip unless both circumstances apply).

Having a single match in the gameweek where a lot of your players are involved on opposing sides doesn't really meet that threshold - even if, as in the recent Gameweek 3, it was two of the top teams, and many people may have had 5 or 6 players from them. There will almost certainly be some gameweeks over the next few months where there are two or three matches involving the top teams playing against each other.... and more promising fixtures for many of the lesser sides you don't usually have many - or any - players from (that really wasn't the case last weekend; and, as I've said recently about playing an early Bench Boost, there's no sense in playing any of the chips early in the season - because form hasn't settled down yet, performances are erratic, results are unpredictable; you just don't know who to pick, or what kind of returns you can expect.... until well into the second month of the season, usually).

You should, however, be able to tolerate having your players in 'non-ideal' fixtures occasionally (the best players can give you good returns against anyone; you might be pleasantly surprised). You should also have a strong enough bench that moving 2 or 3 or 4 players out of the starting lineup for a gameweek because they face a particularly daunting fixture should not be a problem. And if a fixture, or set of fixtures, looks likely to cause you more inconvenience than that, you should be able to plan ahead and save up Free Transfers, so that you can move the necessary players out of your squad short-term (it's a lot easier to carry out fairly major squad reshuffles since the rules were revised to allow us bank up 5 Free Transfers).

So, the threshold for wanting/needing to use a Free Hit to navigate an unusual set of fixtures should be set pretty high (as with a Wildcard!); unless there are at least 7 or 8 players you want to change, you should try to find another way of dealing with the situation.

Does it matter if I have players playing against each other?

NO.

Come on, be serious. You're going to have some of your Fantasy players facing each other in the same fixture almost every single gameweek.

It might be slightly non-ideal - but it's one of those things that you've just got to suck up.

Good attacking players can get a return against anyone, so you shouldn't fret too much if they're up against a good defence. And both sides in a game can get good attacking returns. So, having attacking players facing each other really shouldn't be any sort of problem at all. 

If you have an attacking player facing a defending player, that looks like a zero-sum situation, because a good return for the attacker is going to diminish the return from the defender. But even that's not the end of the world. You can't ever rely on clean sheets. However, even without a clean sheet, goalkeepers can still give you additional points for their saves; and now defenders can also earn extra points for 'defensive contributions'; and they might even pick up some bonus points too! The key thing with defensive players is that you don't want them to be likely to concede multiple goals, where they might end up returning nul points; conceding a goal or two is a regular occurrence, not at all an FPL disaster. And having a defending player facing an attacking player is at least a hedge: you can console yourself that at least one of them should have a good chance of a decent haul - in a match where the outcome is difficult to call. Also, we tend to pick defenders who have a high potential for providing attacking returns as well...

Now, it's certainly not ideal to have your defenders, especially your goalkeeper, facing Haaland, or one of the other most in-form strikers of the moment. But that's why you should have decent alternates on your bench, so you can take players out of that firing-line. With goalkeepers in particular, a good rotation pair - where you can avoid ever having to put one of them into action against the toughest opponents - can earn you more points than the top individual keeper picks like Raya and Pickford.

And yet... an awful lot of FPL managers were panicking last week about having 3 Chelsea players facing 3 Arsenal players, and thought that was sufficient excuse to be playing their Free Hit. Ridiculous!

First, this is a key reason why you should resist getting trebled up on anyone early in the season. In my initial squad, I was only even doubled up on Brentford, Leeds, and Man Utd. Going for three players from the same club this early is just asking for trouble. Doing it for two clubs - who face each other in Gameweek 3 - is a very avoidable foot-shooting.

Second, you ought to be able to park most of these players on your bench, if you really don't fancy their prospects against a tough opponent (that's what your bench is for!).

Third, these aren't the only 'elite' teams. You're going to have players from City, United, Liverpool as well; and Brentford and Bournemouth are looking very good at the moment too. You're likely to have some of your key players facing each other several times in each half of the season. And in some gameweeks, you're going to have more than one such clashing fixture.

Fourth, while you might not have fancied Arsenal for another clean sheet against what has been a very incisive Chelsea attack in the opening couple of games, you should fancy them to score fairly readily themselves - against the rather porous Chelsea defence. And the Arsenal full-backs, Calafiori and White, have looked a particularly potent attacking threat so far. If you had either or both of them in your squad, you should have fancied their chances of picking up a goal or an assist in that game, even if they didn't produce any defensive points. (And Calafiori was unlucky not to - sticking the ball in the net, but getting it chalked off for an offence by one of his teammates.)

So, having players from both Arsenal and Chelsea should really not have been a problem. And if you felt that it was, it was a 'problem' that could easily have been avoided with a little forethought. There will be other more needful occasions for using the Free Hit chip.

Be content with 'good enough'

It's impossible not to indulge in a little thrill of schadenfreude, not to gloat just a little bit over the (slightly more than) 1.6 million FPL managers who hazarded their Triple Captain chip on Erling Haaland against Coventry this weekend.

They were, no doubt, hoping for a high double-digit return; and he yielded only a solitary goal (though, in a low-scoring match, that was sufficient to net him all 3 bonus points as well: we must take our consolations where we may). It was particularly frustrating that City had such an off game all around, and that Coventry were suddenly so much better than they'd looked in their two previous outings; and that Haaland actually had some more decent chances, but failed to convert them - he was twice played in by immaculate through-balls from Cherki, but both times slammed his shot too close to the keeper, Carl Rushworth.

It's important to try to keep a sense of perspective in situations like this.

Almost no-one ever manages to average 5.5-6.0 points-per-game over the whole season, and very few players ever exceed a 7.5-8.0 ppg average over any extended run of games, even when they're in blistering form. Even Haaland gets a lot less than 9 points in at least two games out of every three. 

So, that haul was really pretty respectable, well above average. And it was a 'good' return for the Triple Captain chip (75% of the time, it returns little or nothing!!).

People are only disappointed, dissatisfied with this outcome because Bruno Fernandes just got a once-in-a-blue-moon 23-point haul in the previous gameweek (and a lot of people had been fortunate enough to play their Triple Captain on that). Their hopes and expectations were unreasonably inflated by that reminder of what is - very occasionally - possible with the chip; and they felt under pressure to try to make up that ground lost to so many rivals in Gameweek 2.

But you can't allow yourself to think like that. You have to be happy with whatever you get from the 'bonus chips'. Around half the time, your Triple Captain blanks! Not infrequently, he may even return a score of just 1 point or 0 points; cases have been known of a Triple Captain missing a penalty, getting sent off, etc, and actually returning triple negative points. So, you have to be grateful for any return at all; 4 or 5 points is a pretty fair return ('better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick'), and 8 or 9 points is actually quite good. Double-digit returns are a rare freak, and you should be happily surprised if you ever benefit from one; not greedily expecting it to happen.

The 'disappointment' of the Haaland TC-ers this week, though, does give some encouragement to those of us who held off playing that chip. There is a reasonable hope for us of getting a similar or better haul from our TC play, and so making up the ground that those 1.6-million gained on us this week. With Bruno's monster return last week,... we really just had to write that off as unrepeatable, uncatchable; we'll have to try to claw most of that deficit back through our ordinary weekly hauls. It can be done, but it will be a long hard road.

An irresistible bit of pep-me-up - Monday Music Break No. 2

Austrian keyboard-player and experimental composer Joe Zawinul was playing a kind of 'Fantasy Football' with musicians when he founded his electronic jazz-pop band Weather Report at the beginning of the 1970s, filling the constantly evolving lineup with a series of outrageous talents: saxophonist Wayne Shorter was a long-time mainstay, but at various times the group also included fantastic drummers like Chester Thompson, Alex Acuña and Omar Hakim, and the legendary bassist Jaco Pastorius - here plucking out the opening melody on his favourite fretless bass. This is their best-known piece, Birdland, the exuberant extended instrumental which opened their 1977 album 'Heavy Weather'. 

I once saw a cartoon strip that joked that it was simply impossible to remain depressed while listening to this piece of music. Unfortunately, I can't now track that down online; but I wholeheartedly agree. I discovered this band when I was at college during the 1980s, and this track soon became a regular go-to adrenalin jolt for me whenever I needed to shake myself out of the mood doldrums, or just get myself energised for an early start to the day after a heavy night-before.

The video above is a live performance from a 1978 concert at the Stadthalle Offenbach in Offenbach am Main, Germany (unfortunately, there is one annoying skip in it, near the end). The original album version - purportedly recorded (at least according to Jaco's later recollection) in a single take - can be found here.

If you like this, Youtube currently has a complete recording of the band's 1976 appearance at the Montreux Jazz Festival.

If you've just had another wretched gameweek in FPL,.... this is just what you need to blow the cobwebs out of your head and send you into the new week in a more upbeat frame-of-mind.

A cruel game, indeed!

"Why you gotta be so mean...?"

A record number of FPL managers punted their first Triple Captain chip on Erling Haaland this weekend, anticipating a goal-fest against the previously dismal promoted team, Coventry City. But this week, Coventry were actually quite good, nearly got something out of the game; and the Lanky Viking failed to convert a few chances you'd usually expect him to put away with casual insolence. He might have had a hattrick - but instead returned only a relatively modest 9 points. Cherki set him up beautifully for his two best chances and might have had 2 assists in the game - but came away with nothing.

Calafiori had a goal disallowed for a teammate's offence, then lost his clean sheet bonus through an uncharacterisic lapse by David Raya,... and got booked: he might have reaped 14 or 15 points from the game, but only came away with 1 point! (Oh, no - apparently he wasn't booked, after all. Well, that's a relief: 2 points!!)

Saka and Palmer both played well without managing to register an attacking contribution and ended up with blanks.

Few teams managed to keep a clean sheet (apart from, improbably, the till now woefully awful Spurs and Villa!).

Yep, all the players that I owned had a misfiring week. I think I've got a pretty good squad; and they all played pretty well this weekend. But they returned a miserable 44 points for me. (Without that goal from Jaden Bogle, I would have been below the gameweek average - wretched thought! Oh god, in fact I was - well under!!!)

So it goes. This is a harsh, brutal, unfair, frustrating game. The only reason we play it, really, is to school our anger management...

Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 3

I'll try to continue with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded:  

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Betancur was very lucky not to have a penalty given against him when he tangled clumsily with Igor Jesus while chasing him towards a cross in behind.

Tight/dubious offsides: Isak was denied his hattrick - with a nice assist from Wirtz - being adjudged offside by a kneecap.

Daichi Kamada's goal for Palace, converting a superlative chipped cross from Pino, was ruled out for another of those insanely tight, impractical margins - the toe of his right boot.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Ballard's apparent opener against Brentford was eventually ruled out for Danso having been in an offside position ahead of him and interfering with Kelleher's line of sight to the ball. But Kelleher could still see the ball, and was too far in the middle of his goal to have been able to save a shot right inside his post; so,.... that call seemed very, very harsh.

Neco Williams definitely deserved a goal for his bravery in throwing himself at a bouncing ball on the goalline as Van de Ven swung his boot to clear it. While it does seem very possible that the defender kicked the ball against his arm rather than his face, none of the TV views clearly showed that, as all lines of sight to the actual point of contact were blocked by the bodies of Spurs defenders (nor, indeed, could we clearly see whether the ball might have already crossed the line from Gibbs-White's original deflected shot); so, I can't see on what basis VAR could intervene on this incident. Moreover, Williams looked genuinely mystified as to why the goal had been disallowed, and continued to plead afterwards, with all apparent sincerity, that the ball had not touched his arm.

The overruling of Calafiori's goal was a bitter blow for those of us that own him, but obviously quite correct: Konsa had been in an offside postion when he kicked the ball against the post, and the rebound then squirmed past Martinez to allow the Italian his chance to stab the ball home. I had thought initially that Konsa would be penalised for a foul on the keeper, since he did walk through the back of Martinez as he was floundering trying to recover the ball.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: On Friday night, Iraola started Araujo instead of Frimpong at right-back.

Giorginio Rutter was a late omission for Brighton, with an undisclosed injury problem; Kostoulas started up front in his place.

Foden was dropped, while Ndiaye, slightly surprisingly, was given an immediate start, only days after his arrival at City. Enzo Fernandez was not supposed to have started, but stepped in when Nico O'Reilly felt a problem in his back during the warm-up. (One wonders if this was all a piece of theatre designed to bamboozle the opposition? Although Coventry hardly seem worthy of such an elaborate ruse...)

FPL 'Flavour of the Month' Mamadou Sangaré (15% ownership really is ridiculous for a 'defcon'-only midfielder!!) was withdrawn at half-time.

Damiel Munoz - unsurprisingly - was not ready for a start for Forest. But the also newly arrived Liam Delap was given the nod over Igor Jesus. Oliver Glasner infuriated FPL fans by swapping out Ola Aina and Dan Ndoye seconds shy of the hour mark!

Tyrone Mings was reinstated to the Villa defence, in place of Pau Torres. (Probably no-one owns any Villa defenders at the moment; but this was a little bit of a surprise.)

Ezri Konsa got his first start for Arsenal, though perhaps only because of a 'minor injury' to Mosquera; and Lewis-Skelly again got the start in the pivot role, although Zubimendi came on for the last 25 minutes; and Guimaraes was finally fit for the bench but didn't get on. Meanwhile, Alonso brought Josh Acheampong in for Levi Colwill.

Near misses:  Enzo Le Fée let fly an absolute scorcher from just inside the box, but it smashed against the middle of the near post.

Bruno Fernandes hooked a thumping volley against Pickford's crossbar early on against Everton.

Joao Pedro missed by inches to slide in on to the end of Cole Palmer's delightful diagonal through-ball - which would have put Chelsea 2-0 up before half-time, and might have clinched the game for them. Pedro Neto also had a cracking left-foot shot rebound from the foot of the far post in the closing moments of the first-half that might have given them a 2-1 lead.

Big misses/big saves: Ipswich full-back Leif Davis really should have clawed his side back into the match when he pulled clear of Munoz at the far post, but ballooned his header miles over the top.

Evanilson squandered an early chance to put his team 2-0 up when Botman's sloppy square-ball fell straight to him on the edge of the box.

Pascal Gross had a late chance to claim a winner for Brighton, but lashed the effort over the top from 5 yards out.

Verbruggen made a fantastic save with an outstretched leg from Stach's close-range shot early in the second-half.

An offside Calvert-Lewin was played in behind by a careless back-pass, but after taking the ball round the keeper his feeble shot was easily cleared by Dunk.

Taiwo Awoniyi had a golden chance to put Coventry ahead in the opening minutes, intercepting a loose pass in midfield to steal in behind on a quick breakaway, but then rushing his shot from the edge of the box and putting it wide. Haaland had two good efforts - both set up by Cherki - well saved by Rushworth. Late on, Donnarumma had to make a very sharp full-length save when Tchaouna intercepted a mishit pass from Guehi. And in the closing minutes, Ellis Simms prodded a close-range shot straight into the face of the advancing Donnarumma.

Dean Henderson pulled off a sharp reaction save from Oscar Bobb to keep Palace in the game in the first-half.

Omar Marmoush, with only the keeper to beat, dragged his early chance against Forest well wide. And in the second-half, be blazed an effort miles over the bar - when Kudus was in acres of space on the far side of the box, just waiting for the lay-off that would present him with an open goal.

John McGinn was played in behind by Nicolas Jackson, but, with only the keeper to beat, spooned his chip way over the bar. A little later, young winger George Hemmings's cut-back teed up Buendia perfectly in the middle of the box, but he also skied his effort. Later, Belloumi lashed a curling, dipping shot against the face of the crossbar, with Suzuki beaten. In the dying minutes, substitute Cho lashed a crisp first-time volley from McBurnie's lay-off, but the effort flew straight at Suzuki. And moments later, McBurnie himself had a golden chance to secure a deserved win when Ryan Giles's perfect cross reached him unmarked in the middle of the box - but he misjudged the bounce and took a fresh-air shot.

Matheus Cunha had United's best chance of the first-half, but blazed it over from an unmarked position in the middle of the box. Shortly afterwards, Barry got on the end of Rohl's delicious curling cross to the far post, but couldn't control his header.

Emi Martinez made a good stop from fierce shots from Saka in each half (I own Saka too; it was not a good weekend for me...!). Raya's tipping over a fierce second-half curler from Estevao was even more impressive. The end-to-end Arsenal v Chelsea match could well have ended 3-3 or 4-4 (as I'd predicted...).

Outstanding goals: Alexander Isak produced two very smart finishes on Friday evening, both from superb through-balls from Gakpo - although for the first, Scherpen had left a huge gap at his near-post. Both of these highlights came within 10 minutes of kick-off, though; Liverpool quickly lost momentum after this bright start.

Harvey Barnes cutting inside to unleash a perfect curler from the corner of box would be a 'Goal of the Month' contender in any other month - but nobody's beating Cherki this month! Oh, wait: that was last month. So, Harvey will the be a frontrunner in the next one!

Vitaly Janelt's rasping half-volley to finally give Brentford the lead over Sunderland was the second best goal of the day.

Tyrick George's rasping near-post shot to put Everton level for the first time would have been the 'goal of the day', but for substitute Ainsley Maitland-Niles's precise 25-yard drive into the top corner to nick a point with the last kick of the game.

Odegaard's goal against Chelsea was also a beauty, though not quite as spectacular as those earlier ones.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: Jordan Pickford wasn't looking at his sharpest on Sunday, and might have been slightly at fault for both of United's goals. He had a good view of Mbeumo's crisp curler, and it wasn't that far away from him; but the bounce just as it reached his hands seemed to deceive him. He looked even more unhappy with the second: Sesko's header was well directed downwards, but had little power on it, Pickford got a strong right hand to it... but wasn't able to turn it around the post.

Morgan Rogers's early goal was a decently-hit volley that went through a defender's legs, and was tucked right into the bottom corner; but he didn't really get any power on it, more just prodded it towards goal - and the normally impeccable Raya will probably be rather disappointed in himself that he wasn't able to get down to it more quickly. Kai Havertz's low shot for the equaliser was more crisply struck than Rogers's, but Martinez had a much better view of it, and was still too slow to get down to keep it out at his near-post.

Bad luck/good luck: Donnarumma, who's looking clumsier on the ball with every passing week, was extraordinarily lucky to get away with an early miscontrol, where he tried a little drag-back to give himself space to look for a pass to the other side, but had misjudged how close he was to his goalline: he was only a fraction of an inch from scoring one of the most embarrassing own-goals of all time!

Justin Kluivert was unfortunate that his blistering long-range shot cannoned back off the post.... and then didn't quite go in from the deflection off Hornicek's back either. In the scramble that followed, Scott's off-target follow-up shot took a huge deflection off Thiaw's boot to take it looping over a helpless keeper into the far top corner - quite the comedy of errors.

FPL weirdness: Kai Havertz's dummy on the edge of the box was more instrumental in setting up Odegaard's goal than Tzolis's pass; but of course, that gets no credit in the FPL scoring system - not even under the BPS.

Unexpected results: Although Bournemouth are a dangerous opponent, Newcastle's very sloppy home performance was a big surprise after their impressive showing in the first two games; but at least they showed commendable resolve in clawing their way back to a draw.

Coventry, looking much more cohesive than in their first two games, gave City a bit of a scare. They had a couple of good chances to go ahead early in the game, and came close to drawing level near the end. On balance, they probably deserved at least a draw - which no-one would have anticipated for them at The Etihad; certainly not the more than 1.6 million FPL managers who punted their Triple Captain chip on Haaland in this game!

Tyrick Mitchell, who very rarely scores, snaffled two goals in one game - that's a turn-up for the books!! And then his late replacement, Ben Chilwell, got the third with his first touch!! Strange days, indeed. Mind you, it was against Fulham - who are already looking fairly assured of relegation.

Brentford were far below their best: they were comprehensively outplayed by Sunderland in the first-half, and despite a stronger performance after the break, they were fortunate to come away with a point.

Spurs again played pretty poorly, and were extremely fortunate to come away with a point and a clean sheet against a vastly superior Nottingham Forest.

Villa were also fortunate to share the points against a Hull side who continue to look very impressive.

With quite a few shakey performances and some very low-scoring games (an awful lot of wasted chances this week!), the global average remained a miserably low 36 points; it appeared not to move on Sunday, which ought not to be possible, so, I wonder if FPL Towers is being painfully slow to update the site again....? Ah, yes.... this week's global average actually appears to be 51 points (still pitiful); but the site wasn't updated until mid-afternoon on Monday, UK time!! The 'Team of the Week' did at least end up with a not wildly unexpected selection of attacking players; though fairly few people owned any of the defensive unit - Suzuki, Mitchell (a defender who never scores bagging a brace to become 'Player of the Week'??), Vuskovic, Bogle. The record-breaking number of managers who punted their Triple Captain chip on Erling Haaland (just over 1.6 million of them, apparently), anticipating that City would run riot againt Coventry, will have ended up relieved that he scored something. Although the refereeing continues to look a lot more solid than last year, we saw 1 penalty questionably turned down this weekend, 2 goals very harshly disallowed, and a couple of very good goals ruled offside by distances so small that they must be well inside the SAOT system's margin of error. Therefore, I think we can say this is 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW3 (26/27)

 

Only a few new injury issues this week, it seems. We have been remarkably fortunate so far - compared to most recent seasons. (There have been two or three occasions when I've been forced to use my Wildcard only a few weeks in because I'd lost so many players to early injuries!!) 

The closing of the transfer window throws us a few additional curveballs this week - which of the new arrivals might start, which incumbents might get displaced? And with the Champions League proper kicking off this week (City and Villa playing on Tuesday), there is a possibility of rotations or restricted minutes for some top players from the clubs involved.

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 3?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Brentford's Matthias Jensen missed the game against Leeds last week because of a minor knock picked up in training, and still seems to be a doubt. Ditto Yasin Ayari of Brighton.

Jean-Philippe Mateta has injured a hamstring, and is set to be out for at least a month.

Joe Rodon had to come off against Brentford with a hamstring problem which appears to be quite serious and could sideline him for 2-3 months (probably meaning that new signing Nico Elvedi will get an immediate start).

Sunderland's Habib Diarra became yet another hamstring victim against Fulham last week, and it's projected he will miss 6-8 weeks.

Spurs's new signing Savinho made a brief appearance for them in the League Cup win over Charlton last week, but was then unable to feature against Newcastle at the weekend because of 'muscle soreness'; didn't sound too bad, so he might be available again to face Forest this weekend.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Villa's Joao Gomes is serving the second part of a three-match 'violent conduct' ban for getting himself sent off in the opening game.

It seems unlikely that very late signings who've changed clubs this week - most notably, perhaps, Illiman Ndiaye and Daniel Munoz - will get an immediate start; although I suspect that Jack Grealish and Enzo Fernandez might.

I did a rundown yesterday of the most interesting moves in this year's transfer window.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Spurs are looking an absolute shit-show, and all of their players have to be avoided until further notice.

Coventry, Fulham, and Palace aren't much better at the moment (although at least Palace managed to hang on to Adam Wharton, so perhaps their prospects this season won't be that grim).

The Christos Tzolis 'bubble' has dramatically burst this week, after his disappointing Monday night performance and half-time benching against Villa. Nearly 475,000 managers have baled on him this week. That seems a harsh overreaction to me. I never thought he was worth having in the first place (he's the same price as Odegaard, for heaven's sake!); but if you did, you shouldn't lose faith in him after one game!

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Bruno Fernandes, of course, produced what might be the biggest FPL haul of the entire season last week against unlucky Ipswich; but that sort of outcome is always a one-off freak kind of event, and we shouldn't be expecting him to repeat returns like that very often - perhaps ever. Interestingly, he's only enjoyed a fairly small net rise in ownership this week; a remarkable 265,000 FPL managers have transferred him out! Probably most of them had decided to do that beforehand, after United's dismal opening display against Hull, and were just waiting until they got a second transfer so that they could redistribute the money from his sale more effectively; it is even possible that many of them went ahead with the transfer as soon as the gameweek deadline passed, before Bruno played his game on Sunday - and might now be suffering some seller's remorse. I said before the season started that I thought it would be impossible for Bruno to justify his price-tag this year, however well he played: there's no way he can score 1.5x as many points as the next best midfielder, or 2x as many as the best cheap midfield options. However, it is very hard to walk away from a player who's just delivered 23 points!!

Cole Palmer had a fairly subdued game against Brighton, but still managed to pop up for another outstanding goal. Joao Pedro and Morgan Rogers are looking in very dangerous form, and are attracting a lot of transfer attention (well, Pedro not so much - because everyone owns him already!). Some might hesitate to bring any of these in this week, though, since they're facing Arsenal.

Rayan Cherki has become the week's most transferred-in player, by some distance, after scoring what will probably become the 'Goal of the Season' against Palace. It is unfortunate that this 'most popular transfer' distinction almost invariably dooms a player to a poor return in the next gameweek! Moreover, there were already doubts about whether Cherki might share minutes with Phil Foden; and the arrival of Enzo Fernandez might now create further competition for that slot in the lineup.

Alex Scott of Bournemouth also had an absolutely outstanding game against Everton, and has attracted 47,000 new owners so far this week as a result; but, good as he is, he's not really the profile of midfielder to be very attractive for FPL; Rayan and Tavernier (and maybe Kluivert?) surely remain the likelier midfield picks from that club.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!