Said in one context, relevant in another

John Hurt as the titular weaver of spellbinding tales
in Jim Henson's great 1980s TV show 'The Storyteller'

When I was working in Toronto back in the '90s, I attended a talk by a young indie film-maker, who produced this wonderfully pithy line on his philosophy of engaging with the audience:

Go where they are, take them where they don't want to go - and always hold their attention.

It occurs to me that this works nicely as a summation of the essential principles of football coaching. 

The modern coach is a kind of story-teller: he seeks to impose a 'narrative' on the game. And, although he may hope that this narrative is incidentally entertaining to the wider audience, his main focus, the target 'reader'/'listener'/'viewer' on whom he wants to impose his vision, who he seeks to captivate, manipulate, compel into submission to his artistry... is the opposing team.

When you're without the ball, you have to close down opposition players quickly, especially the one on the ball. When you have the ball yourself, you want to move the opponents around, drag them out of position, disrupt their defensive structure to create gaps that you can exploit. And you always want to keep them focused on you, worrying about what you're going to do next, whether you have the ball or you don't - getting in their heads and maintaining the psychological advantage.

Yes, I really think this line might be a chapter heading in a Coaching Manual. If it isn't, maybe I should write one myself....

[I wish I could recall the name of the chap who said this, but after a lapse of nearly 30 years, it has escaped me. It may come back eventually. I often find myself tormented by a sudden inability to locate a name I was once familiar with, such as the identity of QPR's right-back in the Premier League's inaugural season... Then, after a few nights of light and fitful sleep, I'll snap awake around 4 am with the answer 'David Bardsley' on my lips.  I rather fear the name of some footballer from a distant decade is going to be my 'Rosebud', a cryptic final utterance to baffle my biographer.]

Sweet delight - Monday Music Break No. 11

 

There are many, many Suzanne Vega songs I might have chosen for this latest edition of my start-the-week musical reverie (and I shall probably include some more in the future...). I have been utterly beguiled by her since her eponymous debut album became a big hit in the middle of my university years (40 years ago - but who's counting?). This is an insidious favourite, Caramel, a love song about resisting desire (and there aren't many of those!), with a warm sultry vocal and a mellifluous bossa nova swing to it. And one of my favourite basslines ever!

I find it soothing as a cup of hot chocolate, and sexy-as-hell too.

Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 10

 

Continuing with the (slightly) more concise format I trialled last week....  (This week, I'm a bit late to get the first instalment of the summary out because some drone at the Beeb carelessly mislabelled the Scottish football highlights as the Premier League 'Match of the Day' programme and uploaded the wrong file to the streaming platform - and hence the traditional Saturday evening highlights show remained unavailable to view on the BBC i-Player until late on Sunday afternoon!)

Only bangers allowed at the City Ground on Saturday afternoon! Liam Delap hit two absolute pingers from outside the box, but Cherki's thumping volley was even better. Jacob Murphy's 25-yard curler was a peach as well (it was only a few days ago that I reposted Conor McAinsh's video on the extraordinary prevalence of long-distance goals in the Premier League this season). The best goal of the day, though, might have been Sean Longstaff's neat control, sharp swivel-turn and fierce half-volley - that was somehow fingertipped over the bar by Kinsky. Leno also made a very good save right on his goal-line from Harvey Barnes.

Diego Gomez's cracking 25-yard drive looks like it might win him a second successive 'Goal of the Month'! It was a dreadful mistake from Cristian Walton, allowing himself to be caught in possession by Evanilson to gift Bournemouth their breakthrough goal. But how the heck did James Hill put a header over the bar from half a yard out (which would have given Bournemouth their deserved 3-0 margin, and further boosted the recently prolific Evanilson's haul with an assist)?  Liverpool were under the cosh for most of the game at Selhurst Park, with Pino crashing an early shot against the bar, and Alisson having to make smart saves from Kamada and Wharton, and from Pino again and then Lerma in the second-half. Suzuki made a good flying save from Cunha's long-distance curler in the first-half at Old Trafford; and then substitute Mount cracked a volley against the crossbar just before United's crazy injury-time fightback.

There were three major refereeing clangers on Saturday (and three more on Friday night!),... and then a bunch more on Sunday too. Falai Haram and his VAR team were apparently unaware of the rule that being in an offside position does not invalidate a foul by the opponent, because no actual offside offence has occurred until the player attempts to play the ball - and thus Havertz should have been awarded a penalty for the shirt-holding by Mendy (although it's hard to feel that this was any great injustice, since Arsenal catch more than their fair share of breaks from the referees; and they still managed to scrape a win anyway). It was quite unfathomable that Jayden Bogle didn't receive a straight red card for jumping on to the back Mathys Tel's leg ('accidental' it may have been, but it was certainly 'endangering' the opponent, and indeed Tel was unable to continue; the contact was in fact rather similar to Mateta's last week, only much, much worse - and the Palace forward did get a straight red for that challenge); John Brooks somehow didn't even award a yellow card - and his VAR crew unfathomably ruled that there had been 'no force' in the contact. Dan Burn's near-post headed goal which would have given Newcastle the lead - and probably secured a win against the lacklustre home side - was ruled out for a non-existent foul by one of his teammates. And Stuart Attwell's failure to send off James Tarkowski for a not-very-hard-but-utterly-blatant-and-clearcut hair-pull on Caleb Yirenkyi was also inexplicable (and yet again, VAR declined to intervene to correct a very obvious oversight from the on-pitch official). A little later, Awoniyi was barged over in the box by Mykolenko, and again neither Attwell nor the VAR team thought anything of it (the 'official justification' was, bizarrely, that the contact had started outside the box; there might have been a case to be made that it was a bit of 50/50 shoving, but the decisive part of the interaction clearly happened over or inside the white line).

Marcos Senesi was also a bit lucky to get away without conceding a penalty early on against Leeds. It really wasn't very clear where the ball hit his arm (I thought probably initially near his shoulder, but it might then have bounced or rolled down his arm a fair distance, and maybe even grazed his lower arm); but, for me, he didn't deserve any leniency because he was so blatantly trying to intercept the ball with his arm, diving at full length towards the ball with his hand stretched out in front of him.

Thiago's sending-off against Brighton was ridiculous: he shouldn't have shoved his assailant away like that, but the contact was minimal, there was no 'force' in it - as Michael Oliver ludicrously proclaimed (I would have sent off Chema Andres: yellow card for his initial foul, and an immediate second for the blatant simulation of injury). Ipswich's penalty award was also absurd: Abdoul Ouattara fouled Lewis Cook, not the other way around! VAR was somehow asleep all weekend!! Cole Palmer had yet another penalty appeal turned down (it's getting beyond a joke!). Jarred Gillett didn't even initially award a foul when the midfielder was unceremoniously bundled over on the edge of the box by two Sunderland players; and then VAR again ruled that the contact had occurred 'outside the box' - but it really looked as if it was directly on the line. The penalty then awarded against Colwill was ridiculous; there was some mutual pushing and tugging between him and Brobbey (again, starting well outside the area), but about 60%-70% was being done by Brobbey - who clearly had a handful of the armpit of the defender's shirt and was pulling him off-balance. Why did VAR not overrule this?? The penalty award against Kerkez in the final minute at Selhurst Park was widely viewed as contentious, an 'accidental coming-together' when both players were trying to head a ball that wasn't actually there; but I sympathise with the referee's call on this one - Kerkez had a better view of the flight of the ball, and really was very, very late going into the challenge. It was a dreadful error from Zion Suzuki to flap at and miss that corner in the dying seconds at Old Trafford; but he was clearly barged by Lammens, so.... the goal really shouldn't have been allowed to stand. (And VAR didn't even seem to look at the incident??)

I'm not sure how Rodrigo Muniz claimed the equaliser against Newcastle. The scruffy goal clearly pinged in off three Newcastle defenders, but the BBC pictures didn't show any clear touch from the Brazilian in the middle of all that. I have no idea how Jamie Trafford earned even 1 bonus point, let alone the maximum 3 points (though I shouldn't complain, since I started him). And Barry's 16-point haul not only came out of nowhere (his form hasn't been that great, and Everton were poor for most of this game), but didn't seem fully deserved: the second goal appeared to be fumbled in by a combination of Rushworth and one of his defenders - I've no idea how that can be credited to the striker. In fact, a better camera-angle showed that Barry's final touch had been with the back of his left-hand - so, it shouldn't have been a goal at all. (To be fair, though, his through-ball to Dewsbury-Hall for the third goal was an absolute peach.)  

And how the hell did Harry Wilson not get the assist for Okafor's decisive goal against Spurs? Yes, his square ball deflected off a defender, but not substantially. The guidelines on this were supposedly tweaked last year so that the 'benefit of the doubt' would always be given to the attacking player. And we've seen a number of goals this season and last where clear 'interceptions' by a defender (which this wasn't) didn't stop the assist being awarded. (Nobody owns Harry in FPL this year because he's been starting so irregularly; but it's still an injustice!)

Narrow wins for Arsenal and Leeds and a drab draw between Fulham and Newcastle were to have been expected (although Newcastle were robbed), but recently woeful Forest pulling off such a convincing win against a very, very out-of-sorts City was a big turn-up for the books. And although Coventry have been pretty dreadful at the back, and Everton much more freescoring so far this season than for many years, no-one was expecting Thierno Barry to claim the 'Player of the Week' mantle (although Villa's new winger Alysson subsequently matched his 16-point haul)! And, frankly, Coventry were absolutely robbed in that game too, with a pair of crucial refereeing decisions going against them before either side had scored. Chelsea were pretty dreadful; but they didn't deserve to lose the game - that wasn't a penalty. Liverpool got absolutely battered by bottom-of-the-table Palace for most of the game and were extremely fortunate to come away with the points; the final scoreline flattered them immensely, and the home side actually outdid them on 'expected' goals, but just couldn't convert their chances. And crikey - what a ding-dong at Old Trafford! Both teams committed some shocking defensive errors, and the final equaliser probably shouldn't have been allowed to stand - there was really no way United should have got anywhere near a point from that game!

The 'Team of the Week' looks especially odd this week: only Cherki, and maybe Odegaard and Trafford and one or two of the Leeds defenders, are likely to have had any kind of ownership at all. The global average from the first 5 games was a pretty wretched 25 points , and only just climbed to a still mediocre 55 points after Sunday's tranche of games. A major flub by City (and perennial captaincy favourite Haaland), while Liverpool and Villa were also fairly poor, and Chelsea frankly terrible, that all messed heavily with expected FPL returns; and there were so many conspicuously awful refereeing blunders - which affected the results of matches - that I'm afraid this must be the season's first (and, hopefully, last!) 10 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'. In fact, this was perhaps the worst weekend I can ever remember in the game; certainly the worst for a good few years. The refereeing was so bad this week, I'd really like to call it an 11 or 12!!

Dilemmas of the Week - GW10 (26/27)

Again, we seem to have had remarkably few new injuries this week - hooray! (Uncannily prompt vindication for my advice at the start of the week that the fear of midweek injuries is massively exaggerated.)

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 10?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Ezri Konsa is the biggest potential absentee this week, after coming off in midweek against Slavia Prague with an apparent knee problem. (He's above 23% owned now; and even if people might not necessarily be starting him every week, an awful lot are being tempted to play the Bench Boost on this weekend's appealing combination of fixtures.)

Jorrel Hato was a late omission against Manchester United last Saturday; his issue has still nto been specified.

Coventry's Frank Onyeka also missed last week's game with a groin strain, and remains a doubtful starter this weekend.

Jarrad Branthwaite was suffering cramps after last week's game, and his physical condition is being 'managed' carefully, after extended injury problems over the past season.

Fulham's Tom Cairney missed the game against Newcastle last week with a knee problem.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has apparently been struggling for a while with a slight foot problem, which might rule him out this week. (He has been edged out of his position as most preferred 3rd forward anyway by the recent form of Evanilson anyway, and the likes of Barry and Kostoulas are also eating into his ownership.)

Ryan Gravenberch is struggling with a heel problem, which forced him to miss Wednesday night's defeat against Fenerbahce.

Carlos Baleba had to come off in Tuesday's win over Roma with a hamstring problem.

Joelinton, only just back from an injury absence, had to come off against Everton last week with another muscle problem - which is 'still being assessed', but doesn't sound good.

Do we have any players who are dropped, suspended, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Young Max Dowman is serving the second part of his three-match ban for getting sent off in the League Cup against Fleetwood. 

Jean-Philippe Mateta is beginning a three-match ban for his red card against Spurs on Monday night. (Very harsh in my view: the challenge was clumsy but innocuous, and - so early in the game - not deserving more than a yellow; and certainly not 'endangering the opponent'.)  Whereas... Lisandro Martinez and Jacob Ramsey are both astonishingly lucky that their much worse fouls only received second yellows rather than straight reds, and thus face only a one-match suspension.

Sunderland's Omar Alderete is also suspended for one match after receiving two yellow cards against Coventry last weekend.

Matty Cash and Hull's Matt Crooks have become the first players this season to earn a one-match suspension for reaching 5 yellow cards.

Jack Grealish seems to be still in the doghouse with David Moyes, over his missing a training session last week. In fact, there's been a statement that he is not considered 'match fit' for this Friday's game - which may hint that he's been on the lash again, has compromised his fitness with a drinking binge.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

No, I don't think anyone stunk the place up last week. Coventry, Ipswich, and Palace (who nearly got something against Spurs, despite having to play almost the entire game with 10 men) are showing considerable improvement. Spurs and Manchester United are looking better too, though still struggling to score. Forest, Fulham, and Sunderland are in a very rocky place right now, but look as if they should have the quality to turn things around soon.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Evanilson has certainly been looking in very good form the past few weeks (and is this week's 'Most Transferred In' player, with nearly 700,000 new managers acquiring him) - but I just don't see him as an obviously preferable alternative to whoever you might have as your (rarely to be used...) third forward already. The Sheep have also been rushing in for Luka Vuskovic and Jan-Paul Van Hecke - just because they picked up freak goals last week?? Ridiculous.

With a particularly appealing set of apparent fixture mismatches this week (City, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Bournemouth all facing notably weak opponents; and Arsenal, Villa, Newcastle, Everton, and Leeds also likely to be strongly fancied for potentially good wins), many people are contemplating using their Triple Captain or Bench Boost chips. I'd be tempted, but.... I'm carrying crocked Joao Pedro on my bench and have one or two other slight doubts, so I don't really have a bench to wager. Doing a multiple coin toss to choose between Haaland, Palmer, Manzambi, Cherki, and Jackson for the Triple Captain is overwhelmingly tempting, though.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (119)

“You have to stick within your circle of competence. You have to know what you understand and what you don’t understand. It’s not terribly important how big the circle is. But it is terribly important that you know where the perimeter is.”

Charlie Munger

Munger, long-time friend and business partner of the legendary investor Warren Buffett, died a few years ago, just shy of his 100th birthday. Although he kept a rather lower public profile than his illustrious peer, he did become well-known in business circles for his pithy wisdom, such as the above. He produced a particularly useful breakdown of the 25 most common and dangerous human cognitive biases, originally a lecture which later became formalised into an essay he titled The Psychology of Human Misjudgement.  (If you read one thing this year to help you with your FPL endeavours, it should be this!)

He also collated his witty insights into a book, Poor Charlie's Almanack, which is a cracking read.

(Abbreviated) Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 9

 

Because I've been crazily 'busy' all week, travelling for much of it, and suffering a woefully dodgy Internet connection even during the scant occasions when I could hunker down in my room,.... I have to skip my usual detailed discussion of the gameweek's most notable events, and just do a very quick summary.

This could be the way to go from now on: more concise, more economical of time....

There weren't many rattlings of the woodwork this week (about the only gameweek this season so far where that could be said), although there were fierce strikes from Mbeumo, Ndiaye, and Wirtz that very nearly went in (the first two helped on to the frame of the goal by vital fingertips from Penders and Verbruggen). It was a fairly quiet week for goalkeepers too, with only Verbruggen, Henderson, Lammens, and Hornicek having to do much to earn their keep.

The refereeing was again pretty abysmal. Dalot's trip on Estevao was a very clearcut penalty inexplicably ignored, as was Timber's holding on Isak as he tried to reach Wirtz's floated cross. Liverpool were further abused when a trip on Macallister in the second-half was quickly followed by some more holding on Gakpo as he chased Macallister's chip into the box: both fairly 'soft' fouls, but very clearly fouls, nevertheless. I thought Brighton were fortunate to escape the handball shout against Dunk at the end of the first-half too: yes, the ball pinged on to his arm off his body (off his other hand?) very quickly, but.... he had the chance to react, and he did:... by moving his hand towards the ball. Mateta's sending-off was a bit harsh for me (I'm not surprised Palace appealed against it): a contact on the back of the heel always looks bad, but there was little force in it and it appeared completely accidental: particularly so early in the game, a yellow card would have been the appropriate punishment. On the other hand, it is quite unfathomable how Lisandro Martinez's and Jacob Ramsey's terrible fouls were considered only second yellows rather than straight reds. Martinez's obviously premeditated forearm smash across Fofana's jaw should have been a 'violent conduct' three-game ban offence. And oh yes, Vuskovic's stealing that square ball bound for Haaland at the far post and guiding it neatly into Verbruggen's arms was clearly a deliberate back-pass; and an indirect free-kick from 7 yards out should be nearly as good as a penalty - but again, inexplicably not given by Craig Pawson.

There were some very odd results too. City absolutely dominated Brighton after conceding that freakish early goal, and on any other day would have won 4-0 or 5-0. Credit to Brighton for an excellent defensive performance, but... they really didn't deserve even a point from that game. United also started well against Chelsea, and could have been comfortably ahead by half-time if Amad Diallo could remember where the goal was. Spurs could barely scrape a win against a 10-man Palace, Fulham stole a point they hadn't deserved through a most unfortunate and uncharacteristic error from Suzuki, Liverpool absolutely battered Arsenal and will be perplexed as to how they didn't win the game (unfortunately, the answer appears to be that Premier League referees are still manifesting a heavy bias in Arsenal's favour!), Ipswich salvaged a somewhat surprising draw against a far superior (at least in the second-half) Hull, while Bournemouth and Everton only scraped narrow wins over Leeds and Newcastle.

I already pointed out on Monday that Cole Palmer was particularly hard done-by this week - only very narrowly missing out on both bonus points and defensive points (and a second penalty, and an assist,... and an open-play goal!). He was clearly the 'Man of the Match' and came within an ace of an enormous FPL score,... but ended up with a relatively modest 8-point haul. Ain't no justice. I find it particularly galling and perplexing that he was cheated out of BPS recognition by two of his defenders... who had objectively poor games: they racked up enormous 'defcon' recognition largely by having to make so many recovery challenges to make amends for earlier mistakes (well, Acheampong perhaps not quite so much; but Fofana had the sort of game that makes you expect him to get dropped this weekend).

And how the hell does Maxim De Cuyper get the assist for the goal against City?? Clearly an 'assist' ought to be a deliberate action to facilitate the scoring of a goal - not just a ricochet. The Fantasy Gods really love that lad!!!

Konsa, Rogers, and Jackson are the only significantly owned players (well, Verbruggen has a good ownership number too, but probably wouldn't have been started by many people against City!) in a particularly eccentric-looking 'Team of the Week'. And, despite large numbers of people playing their Bench Boost (nearly 150,000) or Free Hit (well over 300,000) chips this week, it was yet another dismally low-scoring batch of games, producing a global average of just 47 points. Thus, it's clearly another 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter' (very nearly a 10!!!).

Putting the band back together

I washed up in the Lao P.D.R. at the beginning of the Covid emergency, and got happily 'stuck' there for the next six years. It was, overall, a pretty fortunate place to be stuck in during that difficult time.

I'd already visited several times prior to 2020; in fact, my connection to the country now stretches back a decade or so. Thus, it is rather sad to be reflecting I might now be leaving it for the last time - or at least, for the last time for the foreseeable future.

I actually gave up my residence here back in April, but find Fate conspiring to drive me back here on a 'visa run' - hence, an unplanned final farewell to my old home.

One of the things I've so enjoyed about living there is that the 'national beer', Beer Lao - or Beerlao, as the slightly eccentric branding likes to render it - really is very good, one of the most consistent and best tasting to be found anywhere in Asia. And while in a hot climate a basic lager style of drink is always very welcome, I have found myself gravitating more towards some of this brewery's more niche products: Beer Lao Dark, a pleasantly nutty faux stout with a bit of extra alcoholic heft to it (6.5%); Beer Lao IPA (my beer of choice, when I can find it; although, unfortunately, it never seems to have gained any popularity among local drinkers, so supply can be a bit sporadic); and the 'new kid on the block', only launched within the last year, Beer Lao Lemon*.

I have determined to take an example of each of these brews back to Cambodia with me, to enjoy this weekend. (You can find them all occasionally - well, all except the Lemon variety - in Cambodia; but there they are novelty imports, and hence rather dauntingly expensive).

* I am in general a great sceptic about 'fruit beers'. When I lived in China, the main breweries there would often come out with some sort of novelty product that was allegedly flavoured with lemon or orange or mango or pineapple or durian or somesuch; but they were invariably horrible - sickly sweet, and tasting of chemicals-masquerading-as-fruit rather than the fruit itself. However, in a spirit of completeness, I gave the new Beer Lao Lemon a try, and was fairly bowled over by it! It's not just a bizarre beer-with-an-artificial-essence-of-lemon, but beer with lemonade - a 'shandy' as we call it in the UK. And that is what most British drinkers are weaned on: the drink your parents can get away with ordering for you in a pub even when you're barely half the legal drinking age. The drink, indeed, that you can buy legally in corner shops and supermarkets, even as a kid. The popular brands had a fairly negligible amount of alcohol, much less than 0.5%, I think - which presumably allowed them to be legally categorised as 'non-alcoholic' and put on unrestricted sale; though that is still a fairly hefty whack of the insidious poison for a small child, and I can remember a few occasions where I chugged two or three cans of the stuff in quick succession and got fairly light-headed as a result.

And the thing is.... well, not only is Beer Lao Lemon absolutely delicious, it also replicates very precisely the flavour of the common 'low-alcohol' brands ('Panda Shandy' comes particularly to mind, though there were several others) which were central to the childhoods of Englishmen growing up in the '70s and '80s (and perhaps since; but I haven't been doing any growing up since then); and so it brings on veritable swoons of nostalgia. But it also brings on a rather pleasant light-headedness, positively ambushes you with it, in fact. Because it tastes so exactly reminiscent of those not-really-alcoholic kiddie shandies of my far-off youth, I expect it to have the same lack of impact on my sobriety. But.... while it's alcohol content is a fairly modest 3.5%,.... that is probably about 10x to 20x as strong as dear old Panda Shandy; and so, it takes you by surprise a bit. A very pleasant surprise, but one you have to be a little bit wary of: it tastes like a soft drink, but it most definitely isn't.

Have a go!

Conor McAinsh's Football Meta channel did this interesting piece last week on the increasing trend for taking shots from outside the box. (He concentrates particularly on the strong upward blip in the numbers in the early part of this season, but it feels to me like we were starting to see it last season as well, and certainly in the World Cup. [He does mention that the percentage of the tournament's goals coming from long-distance shots was twice as high this summer as in the Qatar tournament.])

He suggests that it appears to be essentially a response to the increasing prevalence of the low-block (shooting from outside the box may be the only way to pierce a compact defence) and also probably a consequence of ever more vigorous high pressing (high turnovers may briefly encounter enticing gaps to take a shot, and/or to shoot through, as players back-pedal to recover their defensive formation after losing the ball in their own back third).

He also notes that the phenomenon is not quite universal (a few leading teams actually seem to be seeing a downturn in their long-range shooting: Arsenal are currently finding it difficult to manufacture scoring chances in any area of the pitch, and Manchester City, naturally enough, prefer to concentrate on trying to create chances in the box for Haaland), and there's also a high variance in the success rate different teams have been achieving with the tactic (some teams seem to have been shooting from distance in desperation, and have not been getting anything out of it [Manchester United and Spurs come to mind!], while others [notably Brighton and Villa] have been making a successful speciality out of it so far). It's also worth keeping in mind that the total number of successful shots-from-distance is still relatively small, and we're still very early in the season - so, the current figures might well be distorted by statistical anomaly.

Although Conor doesn't touch on this, I suspect that there's a potential for strong secondary opportunities from long-range shots, which may ultimately produce more goals than the shots directly. Fiercely hit shots from a long way out are difficult for the goalkeeper to hold or may quite often come back off the woodwork - hence potentially creating moments of chaos in the penalty box when the ball rebounds unpredictably in a dangerous area. This, however, is the kind of thing that stats often fail to track (or that you have to dig very deep to find any useful data on...).

I think this issue also raises a problem with xG statistics. It seems probable that because of the greater focus on attempting shots from outside the box now, all teams will ultimately get better at them (and the most effective teams in this approach are better at them already), and their success rate will improve substantially. And I'm not convinced that shots from distance have ever deserved the niggardly xG ratings of between 0.1 and 0.01 that they have typically been assigned. But... does this mean that xG algorithms will be adjusted, to take account of this shifting reality? And if so, when? It's a bit of a Catch-22 for the stats companies, because their data needs to have a consistency of methodology behind it to give it cross-compatibility with previous seasons; but changes surely have to be made from time to time, otherwise metrics like 'expected goals' could become wildly untethered from the real world, and suffer from a diminishing reliability or relevance. It's a metric I've always felt is of very dubious 'accuracy'; but there is a danger that its usefulness could be further undermined by changes in shooting habits and finishing efficiency in the game.

"Many a mickle...."

An important corollary to my earlier post this morning on why the fear of losing a newly transferred-in player to a midweek injury is unduly exaggerated... is that  many FPL managers seem oblivious to the usefulness of building squad value.

The motivation for moving early to transfer in a player is to avoid a possible price-rise on that player (and/or a possible price-drop on the player you're moving out to make room for him).

The sceptics always object that there is no cause to be worried about losing a puny 100,000 pounds. But of course, if you delay too long, you might suffer two price changes on a player in the same week; it's rare, but it can happen. It's fairly common that you might suffer a rise on a player you covet and a fall on a player you're looking to offload on the same day.

So, we're often talking about not just a 100k loss from waiting to make a transfer, but 200k - occasionally even 300k or 400k!

The sceptics still pooh-pooh that, still claim it's a trivial sum that should have no impact on your thinking about the game.

But the thing is..... these 'trivial' gains or losses very quickly accumulate into bigger sums. Even if you're only avoiding such a price-shift on 1 transfer in every 3 or 4 you make - by regularly moving early on players rather than waiting to the end of the gameweek - within a few months, those small gains can add up to a million pounds or so of extra squad budget. And that does make a big difference.

Don't fear The Reaper

I noticed a lot of people on the FPL forums this last week or so exhibiting an absolute terror of making a transfer early in the gameweek. (This came up particularly in the context of people worrying about whether to replace Joao Pedro, who was owned by just about everyone but seemed set to be crocked until at least the next international break.)

Their concern always seems to be the conviction that there is an unacceptably high chance of a player you transfer in early getting crocked in a midweek game before the next EPL/FPL fixture.

And that fear is massively overrated.

Of course, the possibility/likelihood of injuries is different for different players and at different stages of the season; some are fortunate enough to escape any serious injury problems at all and often manage to remain ever-present for an entire season; others regularly seem to pick up two or three long-term injury absences each year. But I reckon that on average most players can expect to pick up only 3-4 injury absences in a season, most of them only short to short-medium-term in duration.

Across your whole squad, then, you might expect to pick up 1-1.5 injuries per gameweek. In practice that means that, while you'll probably have quite a few gameweeks where you'll suffer multiple injuries at once - perhaps even occasionally 4 or 5 or 6 in quick succession in a really bad week - most of the time you'll only get 1 injury per week; and quite often you'll get ZERO.

So, the chances of any particular player picking up an injury in any given gameweek - a player that you've just transferred in, for instance - is no more than about 10- or 15-to-1. And I think that's a perfectly acceptable risk to take.

But it's not even as bad as that. The great majority of injuries occur during the preceding gameweek's action, and so are already known at the beginning of the interim between the two FPL gameweeks; the number of injuries occurring in that interim is even smaller - you probably have not much worse than a 30-1 chance of a player you buy in on a Monday getting injured before the following Saturday.

Moreover, a midweek game does not significantly increase the chance of that happening. If anything, it may slightly decrease it - because domestic Cups and European competitions are usually played at a much lower intensity and level of physical combativeness than the majority of Premier League games, and so impact injuries or muscle pops are far less common in these types of matches. The majority of between-gameweek injuries arise in training incidents; so, there may in fact be an argument that having a midweek game diminishes the risk of a player acquiring an injury because they will be spending much less time in the highly intensive club training that normally takes place between EPL games.

In 10 years of playing this Fantasy Football game, I can only recall 3 'early transfers' - out of 100s!! - who got injured before the following game. And only 1 of those was injured in a midweek game; the other 2 were training injuries (that happened too late in the gameweek for me to have escaped them anyway; the injuries hadn't happened, or were not announced prior to the deadline, so I would have been just as likely to buy them on the Friday as on the Monday...).

The bugbear of a likely injury that would render a player unavailable to play in the upcoming gameweek is in fact so vanishingly rare as to be really not worth worrying about.

And there is, of course, often an obvious advantage to moving early for a player you want to acquire - an advantage that the scaredy-cats perversely undervalue.

[I should acknowledge, though, that there is a risk in making early transfers. While the possibility that the player you bring in will be injured immediately is fairly negligibly small, it is highly likely that you will lose another member of your squad late in the week; and if that happens to be one of your leading players, you may then wish that you'd saved your Free Transfer for that rather than punting it on that early acquisition. That is the significant counter-argument you should be seeking to evaluate when you opt for an early transfer - not this silly paranoia that your new purchase is bound to get injured in a midweek game.]

The unluckiest player in the EPL?

 

I am a huge fan of Cole Palmer. And I have him in my FPL team... perhaps more often than most folks. Sometimes, indeed, when I probably shouldn't; when I'm being a bit over-optimistic about a coming 'turn' in fixtures or an end to a mini goal-drought being the possible catalyst for a big upturn in form.

But I've been frustrated in his returns this season; yes, disappointed in him. So have many other FPL managers.

A lot of this 'disappointment', though, is probably inappropriate, unfair. It arises from the inflated expectations we have of the lad. We know what he's capable of at his best; and it's so, so, so much more than what he's given us so far this year. We remember his debut season with Chelsea, when he was the FPL 'Player of the Year'; and we want that - or even better! - every year.

Palmer's still the 6th highest-returning midfielder this year (and but for that unfortunate sending-off last week, would be much higher). Apart from the extraordinary run of form that Gross and Tavernier have been on, he's way up towards the top of the leading pack. He's started every game, and has returned 5 times in the 9 fixtures so far - including a nice double-digit haul in the season opener against Fulham. Indeed, despite a couple of big sell-off weeks, he's still owned by over 3 million Fantasy managers - more than treble his initial ownership: enough to have raised his value in the game by 300,000 pounds. So,... he's not doing at all badly.

But it's becoming frustrating to own him because.... well, damn, he is being astonishingly unlucky! Almost every week he's had at least one cracking effort on goal - often more - whistle just wide, rattle the woodwork, or draw a sharp save from the keeper. Most weeks Chelsea have had at least one decent shout for a penalty (which he would take, and almost assuredly despatch) bafflingly turned down by the officials. And just about every single week he's created at least one absolute peach of a chance for one of his illustrious colleagues - Morgan Rogers, Joao Pedro, or Pedro Neto - only to see them shin it into the stands or something. He could very easily have about twice as many FPL points as he currently does!

The current Gameweek 9 has given us a particularly egregious example. Estevao was clearly tripped in the box by Dalot - an absolutely stone-cold penalty that wasn't given. Palmer converted a later penalty that the referee couldn't ignore, but... missed out on a share of at least the last bonus point with fellow goalscorer Morgan Rogers by just a single BPS credit (how often does one of the goalscorers - in a low-scoring game - fail to get any bonus points?!). And this because defenders Acheampong and Fofana had somehow achieved massive BPS numbers!! I really don't know how: there's clearly no qualitative element to this, or no adequate reflection of certain types of error - Fofana, in particular, had a dog of a game, he was getting done for pace again and again by Amad Diallo, and was only being spared the opprobrium of being the reason for Chelsea's defeat because the Ivorian winger's finishing was so sloppy every single time he got in behind him for a chance to shoot.

He also supplied a peachy assist to Estevao for what looked like a third goal - only to see the strike ruled out for the narrowest of offsides (a shoulder and an ear of the Brazilian winger?!). And later on he was denied a tap-in at the far post from Estevao's excellent square-ball by a fine last-ditch interception by Maguire.

And to add further insult to injury, Palmer had a very busy all-around game and ended up with 11 credited 'defensive contributions' - just one short of what he needed to be awarded 2 extra points!! (I absolutely hate that we never have any idea who's done well on 'defcon' in a match, or how; it's all a complete bloody mystery! And it seems innately random, arbitrary, unjust.)

So, yep, he got a very creditable 8 points this gameweek. But it really feels as if it should have been 21 or maybe even 26 points!!!

If Palmer is not currently the unluckiest man in FPL, he's certainly very close. Or perhaps we, his long-suffering owners, are the unluckiest people in FPL....

[On the other hand, it's always useful to maintain a sense of perspective. Cole was a bit lucky even to be playing this Saturday, as either of his yellow-card fouls against Spurs last week could have been a straight red; and the first one certainly should have been called as a 'violent conduct' offence, resulting in a three-match ban. (The second one I feel was not red card-worthy; in fact, it probably shouldn't even have been a yellow card. Although he did step on Conor Gallagher's ankle, the contact was only light and fleeting, not a crunching stomp; and it really wasn't his fault - Gallagher had slid in dangerously under him, slipping his leg under Palmer's just as he was about to finish his step and so making it impossible to avoid treading on him. So, some folks would argue that it was unlucky - unjust - that he got sent off at all. I'm not one of them; I'm just pointing out that there is a case to be made for that. He might have been either unjustly allowed to stay on the pitch after the first foul, or unjustly sent off after the second one. Both can be true - and how do you reconcile those competing what-fis?!)

Moreover, in this week's game, the penalty that he did get was one of the worst he's ever taken: telegraphed, nowhere near the post, and lifted just enough to make it more invitingly saveable for the keeper. Lammens, having got hands to it, really should have kept it out.]

Strange loop - Monday Music Break No. 10

Simon Jeffes' Penguin Cafe Orchestra was a thing of pure joy. I've always found this quirky, zestful quasi-classical 'fusion' music to be utterly irresistible. This is one of my favourite pieces, the playfully demented Music for a Found Harmonium.  (You might not recognise Jeffes' name or the name of his group, but you'll almost certainly recognise the music. It has thoroughly insinuated its way into popular culture over the past 40-odd years, probably gaining more frequent inclusion in film soundtracks than just about any other contemporary composition.)

Fate sundered me from all of my PCO albums on vinyl long since, and for the past 25 or 30 years my only ready access to this music has been through a CD of 'Still Life' at The Penguin Cafe (a 1988 short ballet suite, adapted by Jeffes from several of his most popular pieces), played by the BBC Symphony Orchestra. Because I've listened to this so many times over the years, it has 'the comfort of the familiar' about it now and has become my preferred version.

Sadly, Simon Jeffes died in 1997 of a brain tumour, at only 48 years of age. He'd given an awful lot of pleasure to the world in such a comparatively short time.

Some years later, his son Arthur gathered together some of the musicians his father had worked with over the years on PCO recordings, re-forming the project as Penguin Cafe, originally, I think, just to keep Simon's music alive; but they soon began to record new pieces in a similar style. This is an interesting interview & performance segment with them from BBC Breakfast News sometime back in the Noughties. [And here are some clips of the concerts they were probably promoting in this, at the Royal Albert Hall - interspersed with some entertaining bits of chat from Arthur Jeffes. Several years later, they did one of NPR's 'Tiny Desk concerts'.]

And if you're starting to get into this stuff,.... here are three more short pieces from a 1984 appearance (still led by Simon) on the wonderful BBC2 programme The Old Grey Whistle Test (and if you don't know about that, go and look it up; simply the best music show on television ever, an absolute treasure-chest of astonishing live performances).

And more treats too: a complete performance of the 1988 ballet 'Still Life' at the Penguin Cafe; a half-hour 'Live at the BBC' concert from 1989; and, best of all, an entire episode (50 minutes) of 1980s ITV arts programme The South Bank Show devoted to Simon Jeffes and the group.

Damn, that was quite a rabbit-hole I just fell down. I fear the poor Algorithm is going to be unable to think of anything but Simon and Arthur Jeffes to recommend to me for weeks now!

Halloween Music Break

 

I've never had much time for Halloween parties and such. (It's just not a thing in England; or at least, it wasn't in the time of my childhood...) But over the past several years I have become a big fan of the zestful Spanish cover band Broken Peach (as soon as you see them, you think they're a band you'd like to hire for a private party!). And they've made it a tradition over the past dozen or so years to put out a special video every Halloween, in which they all don the kind of ghoulish skeletal costume and make-up associated with the Mexican Día de los Muertos (two days after Halloween, on Monday), and perform eerily frenetic and jerky dance routines while playing a classic song (I suspect there must be a little bit of video trickery involved in enhancing this effect, because it just doesn't seem humanly possible to do such rapid and such precise twitches!). This year they've finally got around to producing a hard rock version of Michael Jackson's Thriller. But the one above from a few years ago, a wonderfully manic and snarly rendition of Soft Cell's Tainted Love (with a little bit of a mash-up with Sweet Dreams Are Made Of This by The Eurythmics near the end!) is my favourite of the lot.

If you check out their Youtube channel, you can find a full playlist of all their Halloween songs, and also a 'live' anthology concert of them, and an excellent half-hour - continuous one-take - concert of some of their own material.

I confess, I grew to love Soft Cell's version (although I'm glad I only ever listened to it, rather than having to endlessly endure the rather cringey video that accompanied it). You sort of had to, back in the early '80s, resistance was futile: it was the most massive hit of my college years, remaining the most played song on the jukebox in my college beer cellar for five straight years. Here's a great live version with Jools Holland's Rhythm & Blues Orchestra on the Hootenanny six years ago (a long-running New Year's Eve special of Later with Jools Holland.... the best music show on the BBC, and quite probably in the entire world). And, in my usual spirit of completeness, here's where it all started, the 1964 Motown recording from Gloria Jones.

Administrative note

 

My usual Luck-o-Meter commentary on the weekend's most improbable - and FPL-distorting - events may be late in appearing this week.

And/or severely truncated.  Or perhaps just absent altogether.

I am in the midst of a spell of travelling, and am expecting to be 'busy' and/or 'on the road' for most of the upcoming Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Thus, I might not even be catching up on the latest gameweek action until the middle of next week. Such is my life.

This might be an opportunity to rethink the Luck-o-Meter format, or perhaps retire it altogether. I've kept up these detailed reviews fairly consistently for over a year now, and have adequately proved the point  -  that shit happens, every goddamn week, in far greater amounts than most people notice or care to acknowledge, and that all of this randomness and weirdness actually has more of an impact on FPL outcomes than the expected/predicted points returns of the major players. 

And lately, I fear, these reviews have been becoming just too darned time-consuming to maintain in their current form.

I have been pondering some alternate approaches to exploring the impact of luck in our game, different metrics I might evaluate each week - which hopefully might prove just as insightful, but require less effort to compile. Watch this space.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW9 (26/27)

Mercifully, there haven't been many new injuries in the League Cup ties this midweek. However - although at least there's no extra-time in these games - there is a danger of some psychological exhaustion for the teams who went through penalty shootouts (Liverpool and City), and even more so for those who lost in penalty shootouts (Brighton, Chelsea, and Arsenal!). And the 9 clubs who'd already been eliminated before this week's 'Round of 16' (Leeds, Everton, Newcastle, Manchester United. Nottingham Forest, Spurs, Hull, Ipswich, Coventry) might enjoy a slight advantage from having had a full week of uninterrupted training without a match to worry about.

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 9?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Riccardo Calafiori was suffering with a niggle at the end of last week's game against Everton (reportedly a hip issue), but has been back in training this week, and seems likely to be OK to start. Likewise, Declan Rice came off last weekend with a tight hamstring, but has also returned to training. Noni Madueke, who has picked up an ankle injury, might be more of a problem. And young Max Dowman (though never a regular starter anyway) has got himself banned.

Johan Manzambi and Nicolas Jackson were left out of the Cup game against Bournemouth and were not spotted in training; Emery has hinted darkly that there were reasons other than just 'rest' for their midweek omission.

Rico Henry has been revealed to have been suffering with a thigh-muscle problem - although the poor chap never seems to have got anywhere near a start anywhere over the past year or more.

Chema Andres and Ferdi Kadioglu have both been struggling with hip issues, but Hurzeler seems optimistic that they will be available to start this weekend.

Maxence Lacroix picked up a hamstring injury in Wednesday's Cup defeat by Liverpool and will be out for a few weeks. Moises Caicedo and Malo Gusto also had muscle problems in that game, but it seems they're looking probably OK again for the weekend. Jorrel Hato has been ruled out for an unspecified issue - so Marco Palestra might finally get a start at left wing-back.

Jarrad Branthwaite was still missing the midweek Cup win over Newcastle under concussion protocols, after his collision with Emi Martinez two weeks ago. He should be in the clear for this weekend, but after such a long break from training, it seems doubtful he'll come straight back in, and Michael Keane will probably keep the start for at least one more week.

Matias Fernandez-Pardo missed last week's match against Palace and the midweek Cup defeat to Everton with an illness. He probably wouldn't have been expected to start over Will Osula, but the other forward is also now a doubt after coming off with an ankle knock in the Cup Game. Lewis Miley has also been missing for the past week with a muscle problem.

Dan Ndoye is a doubt for Forest because of a tight hamstring.

Nordi Mukiele had to come off last week against Leeds after taking a blow to the throat; doesn't seem that serious, but he's still a doubt....

James Maddison came off early in the second-half against Chelsea last week with a groin strain; but De Zerbi insists he's recovered. (Given the poor lad's injury record, I wouldn't be taking any chances on him with a muscle injury...)

Do we have any players who are dropped, suspended, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Max Dowman is starting a 3-match 'violent conduct' ban for getting involved in a bit of argey-bargey towards the end of the Cup tie with Fleetwood.

Yegor Yarmolyuk, Ryan Sessegnon, and Rodrigo Bentancur are serving the last part of their 3-match bans this weekend.

Jack Grealish is in trouble with David Moyes for missing a training session this week (and you wonder if there's a story behind this; been out on the lash again, perhaps?), and so may face being dropped as a wrist-slap.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Spurs are suddenly becoming popular again in FPL, as they are showing clear signs of improvement now under De Zerbi, and they have some supposedly 'better' fixtures ahead. In fact, they have fairly 'soft' opponents in their next three home games, but the rest of their fixtures through till the end of the year are fairly daunting; and although their overall play is much better, they're still struggling to score goals. I would be avoiding them for a while longer yet. Manchester United seem to be careening from bad to worse, and poor Michael Carrick seems increasingly certain to get the chop fairly soon - so, I wouldn't be going near any of their players either.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Cody Gakpo looks back to his best - although there may be some doubts about minutes-sharing when Munoz is available again, and he's not at his best if deployed off the right side. Johan Manzambi and Nicolas Jackson have been looking must-have for a few weeks now; the FPL hordes are finally arriving late to the party, with nearly 300,000 coming in for Manzambi this week (the enthusiasm perhaps dimmed somewhat by a slight injury concern) and 1.7 million acquiring Jackson (thereby bestowing on him the curse of being the week's 'Most Transferred-In' player - an almost infallible guarantee that he'll draw a blank this week!), comfortably beating out Alexander Isak as the most preferred replacement for short-term absentee Joao Pedro.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A place of peace

I had somehow missed out on the Khone Pa Soy Falls on previous visits to southern Lao. Off the eastern shore of Don Khone, the large island in the middle of the Mekong near the Cambodian border, they are much less grand than the Somphamit Falls on the other side of the island, but somehow - to me, anyway - far more charming, perhaps because so much more accessible. You can follow obscure paths off into the underbrush to find tiny hidden beaches that locals use to wade out into the torrent to set fish-traps; so, you can get right up to the water's edge, and even step into it at some points - whereas the larger falls you have to admire from a safe and respectful distance. 

I have been back here a few times this week (it's about an hour-and-a-half's walk from where I'm staying). And meditating; trying to fix the scene in my mind, so that I'll always be able to recall it when I need a soothing image to cheer or calm me.

A little bit of Zen (118)

 

"The soul should always stand ajar, ready to welcome the ecstatic experience."

Emily Dickinson

This has been one of my ecstatic experiences this week.

Not just a football 'genius'??

I recently enjoyed this little profile of Ayyoub Bouaddi on the Daily Dose of Football Youtube channel. Manchester City's new midfield signing - only just turned 19 years old! - caught my eye with his performances for Morocco in the World Cup this summer, but I hadn't known much else about him. So, this introduction was most welcome.

It turns out that he appears to be not only a lovely lad, but extraordinarily bright as well: not just an outstanding 'football intelligence', but a formidable all-around intellect. (He shuns social media, and is more likely to spend his downtime reading books, listening to classical music, or playing chess. It's reassuring to learn that there are still some teenagers who follow such a path.)

Alas, I have serious doubts as to whether City was the right move for him. Daily Dose's creator Lucas Ribeiro suggests here that he might be becoming a first team mainstay in three or four years; but I don't see a ready path to achieving that when more experienced players like Elliot Anderson and Enzo Fernandez are standing in his way. And that's too long for him to wait; he's good enough to be a regular starter straight away. I hope they'll let him go out on loan so he can continue to get regular gametime.

Look on the bright side!

 

Things can always be worse.

At least you didn't play your Triple Captain on Palmer this week!

Well, that's about the only comfort I've got to cling to, after one of the most wretched gameweeks in FPL history! 

[At the end of my regular 'Luck-o-Meter' commentary on the gameweek action yesterday, I catalogued how of the 15 highest-owned players, only Haaland, Raya, and [thus far, somewhat disappointing] Gabriel had produced anything; and only Calvert-Lewin and Verbruggen, down at the bottom end of that 'popularity list', had managed even 2 points. Two players hadn't even played, two more had returned nul points despite playing, and five contributed only a single point; while Palmer, of course, returned -1 point! It was very possible - in fact, relatively common - to have a net zero points return from your entire midfield this week!!]

Well, that - and the perennial schadenfreude consolation that an awful lot of people managed to do even worse than me.

Heck, it seems that something in excess of 2,000 people may have made Palmer their Triple Captain this week (at least, if Google is to be believed; these days, alas, it usually isn't...). Around 29% of managers owned him going into this gameweek, and against recent whipping-boys Tottenham, surely everyone will have played him. Probably around a third of his owners had the captaincy on him; and a good many more of them (possibly nearly all - again, according to Google's somewhat unconvincing roundup of the gameweek stats) may have had him inherit the armband as vice-captain after Joao Pedro failed to appear. Nearly 300,000 FPL managers had transferred him in expressly for this fixture.

So, if your FPL weekend suffered from Palmer's uncharacteristic rush-of-blood on Saturday (as did mine), there were a lot of people in the same boat - some of them in an even leakier boat. 

And even if you suffered the worst-case scenario of having made Palmer vice-captain while playing your Triple Captain on Joao Pedro, well - although, yes, you wasted your triple-points chip, at least you only wound up with a -3; it has been known for heavily captained players to produce much bigger negative scores.

And at least Palmer didn't get a straight red card, and a three-match suspension. I think he certainly should have for the first foul, that petulant barge into Matheus Fernandes, which was pure retaliation for his wild challenge on Caicedo moments earlier. 

And arguably the second one - stepping on Gallagher's ankle late in the game - should have been a red card too: if it was a culpable action by Palmer, deserving of the yellow card Chris Kavanagh awarded (to produce the double-yellow sending-off), then the nature of the contact was serious enough to have possibly caused injury and must have been flying close to the threshold for a straight red. I don't think it was culpable: Gallagher slid in dangerously on Palmer, inserting his leg under Palmer's foot as he was about to put it down: the contact was brief, not heavy (Palmer actually pulled out of the step and picked his foot up again very quickly), and looked entirely accidental - he could not avoid treading on Gallagher in that moment, and it was Gallagher's fault. So, some Palmer owners will no doubt be wallowing in the injustice of that decision and claiming he shouldn't have been sent off at all - but he clearly should have been for the earlier foul.

Anyhow, he's only picked up a one-game ban for the double yellow card; and, thanks to the quirk that Premier League bans can be served in the League Cup, Palmer will be suspended for the Round of 16 tie at Anfield this Wednesday, and he won't miss any EPL/FPL time at all!  So, things could have been very much worse.

Of course, there is the slight problem that a lot of ignorant Premier League managers don't realise Palmer isn't banned next weekend (or they suddenly think he's become 'no good',... or they're vengeful because he 'let them down' so badly this past week...), and there's a big sell-off under way - which may force his price down. Alas, we just have to accept that with so many people in the game now, and so many of them being so dumb and so impulsive, the transfer market is extremely volatile - and we are occasionally going to suffer a loss of value in one of our key players for no good reason.