Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 30

 

 

In the middle of the European 'Round of 16' ties, we've inevitably seen a few surprising and inconvenient rotations this weekend; and, yet again, some up-and-down performances from the big teams.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: 

Red cards not awarded: Yankuba Minteh was very fortunate not to get a second yellow card against Sunderland (and Hurseler immediately subbed him off, to avoid the near-certainty of his dismissal for any further infraction). His second foul was a fairly mild contact, and might have been seen as an 'accidental' coming-together - but it was the sort of contact we usually see cards given for. Hannibal was even luckier to get only a yellow card for his wild, overreaching lunge which cuaght Truffert above the ankle; the VAR team were again, unfathomably, sitting on their hands (it was a bad enough foul that the referee should at least have taken a second look at it).

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Michael Keane plainly clipped Havertz's heels not once but twice, bringing him down in the penalty area in the first-half at The Emirates; VAR's silence on the incident is utterly baffling. Cole Palmer was clipped on the edge of the foot by Woltemade's rash challenge: the contact was very slight, but it was clearly there - and it was enough for a penalty to be awarded. [Along with two good efforts on goal, one saved, one just wide, Palmer, despite looking still at only about 85% of his full capacity, was not far off a 20-point game, but came away with only 2 points. So it goes....]

Tight/dubious offsides: 

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Sunderland are unhappy about Brighton's goal, as Diarra had been shoved to the ground on the preceding corner-kick; but that contact might not have been violent enough for a foul, and Diarra appeared to be rolling around on the ground to try to perusade the referee to reconsider his decision on that, rather than because he was actually hurt; he certainly didn't have a head injury, so there was no reason to halt the play.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries:  Viktor Gyokeres was rested in favour of Kai Havertz (although anyone who'd been rash enough to include the Swedish striker were rewarded with a gaol from him when he came on from the bench). Jurrien Timber picked up an injury, and was subbed off just before half-time. Tarkowski and Branthwaite failed to appear for Everton (and there's no excuse of European football there, so presumably there are undisclosed injury issues of some sort?).

Alex Jimenez, who's been almost an ever-present for Bournemouth this season, was dropped in favour of Adam Smith - although he did get decent minutes off the bench.

Robert Sanchez got a somewhat surprising recall in the Chelsea goal, though apparently this was down to Jorgensen having picked up a slight groin-strain rather than Rosenior having had a change of heart about him.

Near misses:  Everton nearly embarrassed title-chasing Arsenal when McNeil's long-range curler had Raya well-beaten, but slammed against the post - and Ndiaye got to the rebound first, but put it wide. Only moments before, a close-range drive from McNeil had been somewhat fortuitously blocked by Calafiori's hopefully flailing leg, as he lay sprawled on the ground. Reece James's 30-yard free-kick late in the game clipped the outside of the foot of the post, with Ramsdale struggling to get across to it.

Big misses/big saves: Erling Haaland had a pretty quiet game, but did square the ball to set up Semenyo for what should have been a decsive opportunity - but the usually impeccable forward side-footed the shot just wide of the post. It wasn't a terrible mis, but it's looking very much as if might be a decisive one in the title race. Palmer had a great early chance against Newcastle, but lashed the shot just wide. Robert Sanchez pulled off a very good flying save from Gordon's fierce long-range curler. A little later, Liam Delap blazed the best chance of the game way over the bar. Ellborg's reaction save with his foot to deny Hinshelwood's point-blank shot will probably be the 'save of the weekend'. Evanilson rounded the keeper early on, but his effort was blocked at the near-post by Bashir Humphreys. Jadon Anthony absolutely smashed one against the underside of the crossbar; the best chance of a fairly dour game against Bournemouth. A little later, Marcus Tavernier's crisp left-foot shot clipped the outside of the post.

Outstanding goals: 

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: 

Bad luck/good luck: Bernardo Silva's inch-perfect chip was... pretty obviously a mishit cross. Mineth's goal from a tight angle against Sunderland was also a fortuitous mishit, as he lost he feet and sliced his shot.

FPL weirdness: 

Unexpected results: Although denied an obvious penalty, Arsenal were fairly lucky to come away with a win, as Everton looked much the better side for most of the match. City then failing to get a win against battling West Ham has probably cost them the title. Newcastle managed to get a win away from home, against an oddly lacklustre Chelsea.

The FPL 'Team of the Week', after Saturday's games, includes no-one that anyone owns - except William Saliba (and even he's a much less popular choice from the Arsenal defence than Gabriel or Timber; or, recently, Hincapie!). With a bunch of low-scoring games, and no hauls from any of the major players yet, the global average is a miserable 23 points. With a few surprise last-minute omissions and some unexpected results, one or two missed red cards, and a couple of pretty clearcut penalties not given, this is already lookiing like at least a 6 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 30 (25/26)

 

Although it was a dismal week in Europe for the English clubs, at least we seem to have come through the ordeal with no new injuries. And last weekend's FA Cup ties were mercifully free of casualties too. And some teams who'd exited the Cup early and aren't involved in Europe were able to take brief warm-weather breaks this past week. Touch wood, despite the ongoing dismal weather in England, it looks as though the peak of the inevitable midwinter injury crisis may now be passing. Although, with 9 teams facing difficult return legs in the European competitions this coming midweek, there is an extremely high risk of rotations this weekend - and, with that, probably an increased likelihood of some eccentric results.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 30?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Leandro Trossard came off early in the Cup game against Mansfield with a muscle problem, and wasn't involved against Leverkusen midweek.

Matty Cash had to come off at half-time against Chelsea in GW29 with a calf problem, but it looks as though he should be available again this weekend.

Rico Henry, only recently reintroduced after a long lay-off, has picked up a serious hamstring strain which looks as though it might keep him out for the rest of the season.

Kaoru Mitoma came off at half-time against Arsenal in GW29 with an ankle problem. Scans reveal nothing serious, but he has been struggling with pain and hasn't trained much since.

Daniel Munoz had to come off against Spurs in GW29 with a shoulder injury, and is still looking doubtful to return this week.

Leeds are suddenly missing their two preferred forward options, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin suffering with a knee problem and Noah Okafor missing training this week with a hip issue. Presumably Lukas Nmecha, and perhaps also Joel Piroe, will get more of a chance while they're out.

Alisson missed the trip to Galatasary this week after feeling a muscle problem in training; Slot is hopeful he might be back this weekend.

Forest winger Dan Ndoye missed the European game on Thursday because of a training knock.

Cristian Romero and Joao Palhinha suffered a clash of heads in Tuesday's game against Atletico Madrid, and will both have to miss this week. Conor Gallagher is also a doubt, having missed training with an illness this week.

Recently in-form winger Crysencio Summerville suffered a calf-strain in Monday night's Cup win over Brentford, and looks likely to miss out this weekend.

Jose Sa has been troubled by a persistent ankle injury, which led to him being omitted in the FA Cup game against Liverpool last weekend.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Pedro Neto is still suspended, having received an additional one-match bna from the FA for failing to leave the pitch promptly after being sent off for a second yellow-card offence against Arsenal at the start of the month.

Micky Van de Ven is suspended this week after being sent off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' against Palace in GW29.

Jadon Sancho is, remarkably, still a Manchester United player, and is thus ineligible to play against them for Villa this week.

Raul Jimenez will be missing for Fulham as his father has recently died.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Spurs, of course, have been FPL poison for months; but I rather fear Liverpool are getting there as well - they have been absolutely awful in the last few league games. Villa have also been in a very bad run - but at least Onana is back to give them a bit more steel in the middle of the park, McGinn should be close to a return, and Ollie Watkins managed to get on the scoresheet against Lille on Thursday, so... maybe things are about to turn around for them? (Just as Morgan Rogers became the week's most transferred-out player.....)

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Marcus Tavernier - not Joao Pedro! - produced the 'Performance of the Gameweek' last time: he was absolutely magnificent, and very, very unlucky not to come away with a 20-point haul. This was a classic example of how the FPL points returns are often no guide at all to how well someone has played. Against Burnley this time, I'd seriously fancy him as a captaincy option. James Tarkowski and Marcos Senesi also recommended themselves as top defensive options - but they've actually been decent picks for most of the season, and many managers will have kept them since Gameweek 1.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (85)

“May you get all your wishes but one, so you always have something to strive for.”

Irish blessing

"And may the head on your Guinness be tight and creamy..."

GW  (Though he probably won't be expressing himself that coherently over the coming few days, what with being a Plastic Paddy and all....)

One can't help a little snigger

 

I am English; and thus I inevitably feel a certain sentimental attachment towards English football clubs, and hope for them to do well in the continental competitions. But that's all it is: a weak impulse of sentiment. I have absolutely no time for blind nationalism, and in fact tend to react against any suggestion of it. Ultimately, I love good football more than anything else, and will always celebrate a deserved victory, even when it goes against the team I was at least somewhat rooting for. I won't be obstinately braying for English success at any price in the World Cup this summer; I'll quite happily accept it if - when - we get eliminated by a better team; and, ultimately, I'll probably be investing as much or more hope in the team playing the most attractive game during the tournament, and that's quite likely to be Spain or France or Brazil.

And hence.... while many of my countrymen are dismayed and despondent at this week's results in the First Leg ties of the Chamipions League 'Round of 16', I can't resist a little chortle. The 'junior' European competitions have been so diluted as to become a bit of joke, really - easily dominated even by bottom-of-the-table Premier League sides. But this year, the Champions League has seemed to be going the same way, with the usually major European powers mostly looking well below their best (only Bayern still giving cause for concern...) in the league phase. Even misfiring Liverpool had been able to look fairly dominant in Europe so far; even stuttering Newcastle and increasingy abysmal Spurs had qualified through the first phase with relative ease. It was starting to feel as though we'd surely be guaranteed two or three of the semi-final berths. But, oh boy, did things just change quickly!!

Admittedly, only Newcastle were playing at home in this first batch of games. And our boys did get the rough end of the draw, with opponents of the status of Real, Barca, PSG, and Atleti being pitched against us so early in the knockout phase. (Though at least we were spared Bayern! And, frankly, on these performances, I'm not sure any of our teams would have fared that much better against Bodø/Glimt, Sporting, or Atalanta...)  But three of our six contenders were not just beaten but absolutely spanked, while Liverpool went down to the not-that-daunting Galatasaray, and even the mighty Arsenal barely scraped a draw against Leverkusen (and that only because they were the late beneficiaries of probably the worst penalty decision we've seen in the competition this season!). That is surely one of the worst nights for English football in Europe ever!!

But I am accepting this dreadful set of results calmly, stoically. I actually welcome them as a deserved corrective, a useful rebuke to incipient hubris. It can really do no harm to our clubs, or to the national game, or to English football fans in general.... to be brought back down to earth, to be shocked out of the arrogance and complacency that were starting to grow in us in regard to the European competitions.

And all is not yet lost. I'd still fancy Liverpool and Arsenal, and perhaps Newastle too to be able to pull off a win over two legs. And if anyone can pull back back a three-goal deficit against a team as big as Real Madrid,.... it's probably Pep's City.

It ain't over, as they say, until the Fat Lady sings....

Picks of the Week (9)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing..... In practice, I generally only come up with one of these posts once every month or two.

And yes, indeed, it has been a couple of months since I last did one of these, so - to counterbalance yesterday's dissing of some of the currently most popular picks - I felt I should come up with a few suggestions for Gameweek 30.

Now, this I find ODD.... The standout performance of Gameweek 29 did not come from Ismaila Sarr or Adam Wharton or Bruno Fernandes or Jurrien Timber or James Tarkowski, or even from hattrick-scoring Joao Pedro; no, the best league performance of last week, by a mile, was produced by Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier. And yet he is thus far being completely overlooked. The transfer market is being dominated by people catching up on players they should have had already; while Marcus, despite his stellar form in the last two games, since his return from injury, is only the 50th most transferred-in player so far this gameweek (putting him behind Viktor Gyokeres, for heaven's sake! why on earth would anyone be buying him, just before Arsenal face a blank gameweek??), with barely 20,000 new managers coming in for him. This is surely further evidence that most FPL managers don't watch games (or don't watch them with any insight and appreciation, anyway); they must be thinking, "How can you say he had a good game when he didn't score any points?" Well, he smashed the woodwork twice, put a delicious curler only inches wide, set up teammates with a few good chances too, and should really have been awarded a penalty; sometimes, the breaks just don't go your way. But the thing with form/quality of play is that while it does not guarantee you will score any FPL points, it does make it more likely that you will. (Whereas having scored a lot of FPL points is not necessarily reflective of someone's overall quality of play; often players can pick up points - even quite a big haul - rather fortuitously, without really playing all that well. This is why you need to watch the games, to understand what's really happening.) With Semenyo and Ouattara having departed, and Kluivert missing most of the season with injury, Tavernier has become Bournemouth's key creative player - and one of their likeliest goalscorers. And the team seem to be on the up again at last, after a serious slump through the middle part of the season. Admittedly, they still have Manchester United, Arsenal, and Manchester City to face in their run-in, but... the rest of their remaining opponents are all pretty beatable. And Tavernier, remarkably, only costs 5.3 million at the moment - making him one of the most tempting midfield prospects under 6 million.

Now, I'm probably a little bit late on this one.... Crysencio Summerville has come into sensational form for West Ham over the past several weeks, and he's already grown his ownership from a negligible 11,500 when he faced Spurs in mid-January to over 370,000 now. Yes, you read that right: he's still owned by less than 3% of FPL managers - despite being the 4th highest scoring mdifielder over the past 8 gameweeks (1 point ahead of Antoine Semenyo!), and costing only 5.7 million pounds. West Ham are the most dramatically improved of the bottom-of-the-table clubs since the turn of the year, and are now looking favourites to save themselves from the drop (very possibly at the expensie of Spurs!). They still have to face City and Arsenal (though at least both at home), but the rest of their run-in doesn't look too daunting. Alas, Summerville has just picked up a knock in Monday's FA Cup win over Brentford; but if that turns out not to be anything serious, Summerville should definitely be in contention for a change-up in that crucial 4th/5th FPL midfield slot.

And here's a slightly left-field suggestion... United's veteran pivot Casemiro is actually one of the most 'in form' midfielders since mid-January, with 2 goals in the last 6 games (and fairly frequent 'defensive points' too). Yet he still costs only 5.6 million pounds in FPL, and is owned by only just over 2.5% of managers. If you're looking to switch up your 'fifth seat', you could do a lot worse. I confess, I had written off the aging Brazilian long ago. He's had a miserable time the last few seasons, with both Ten Hag and Amorim tending to leave enormous gaps in midfield, while failing to find him an effective double-pivot partner - thus leaving far too much ground for his aging legs to cover, and repeatedly making him look like one of the side's weakest links. But now that we have a more sensible and effective tactical system under Carrick, and the youthful Mainoo reinstated alongside him to help with the covering, he's not having to run himself into the ground by half-time every week,.... and his undoubted class has been able to reassert itself. He really has been looking superb over the last few months. The problem, of course, is that you can't take too many players from United, and most people want to have Bruno Fernandes and/or Bryan Mbeumo in their sides even more. But... if you find you can't quite afford both of the Brazilian's more prolific teammates, he's looking a very tempting pick - especially if you're just looking for a short-term replacement for Declan Rice when he faces a blank gameweek soon.

I still rather fancy the recent form of Brenden Aaronson and Harvey Barnes too, but I already gave them a boost back in January. And Everton's suddenly hot again Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall might be worth a thought as well - if they didn't have Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City coming up in their next six games!!

Sheep Picks (20)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

And so, as we approach Gameweek 30, I'm going to go out on a limb rather, and query the current popularity (perhaps over-popularity...) of a few admittedly rather good players. I can see the arguments in favour of these guys; and they might work out. But I have serious doubts about whether they'll work out as well as their new adopters fondly hope.

So, first up, then, we have Chelsea's Brazilian forward, Joao Pedro. Now, sure, he's the most 'in form' striker of the moment, has looked superb over the past month or so. My objection here is primarily that anyone buying him now is woefully late-to-the-party. And indeed, I fear there is a chance that the 'party' may shortly be winding down. If you fancied that Chelsea might benefit from a 'new manager bounce' when Liam Rosenior came onboard in January, and/or were optimistic that the long-awaited return of Cole Palmer might soon have a transformative effect for the team, or were just encouraged by an approaching run of fairly 'soft' fixtures - then that would have been a very smart gamble: the optimum time to bring JP in would have been around Gameweek 22 or Gameweek 23.  The nearly 300,000 FPL managers who've acquired him since last week have been sleeping on his hot streak! And while I do acknowledge he is looking supremely confident at the moment, finishing superbly, playing again with some of that swagger we saw in his debut appearances in the Club World Cup last summer,... his numbers have also been a little flattering - partly because of a lack of competition among the forwards (almost everyone else, Haaland especially, has had a bit of a quiet spell over the last two months), and partly because quite a few things have broken kindly for him (he's gained a few assists for 'winning' rather soft penalty awards; and he was teed up for his hattrick last week by Garnacho selflessly squaring the ball to him rather than shooting himself - when does that ever happen??). Also, he has been exploiting a series of exceptionally inviting fixtures: apart from the recent visits to Arsenal (where, of course, he blanked) and Villa (who looked formidable up until the end of last year, but whose form has now crashed), they've been playing all the bottom-of-the-table clubs since late January. Their next four opponents - pacey Newcastle (though at least they don't 'travel' well, and will probably be preoccupied with the looming second leg of their Barcelona tie), defensively stolid Everton, and utterly terrifying City and United - could prove much tougher. And anyone who piles in for a player who's just scored a hattrick usually ends up disappointed; he's very, very unlikely to get a haul like that again in the next few weeks - maybe not all season. 

Even worse, a lot of his recent buyers have been ditching Haaland to make way for him. Yes, the big Viking has had a few injury worries and has been misfiring lately, and Joao Pedro has been much the best FPL forward over the past month or more; but he is NOT a better prospect than Haaland for the remainder of the season.

Just as there's a heavy element of just chasing last week's points with the renewed rush for Joao Pedro, so too there's been a surge of interest in Ismaila Sarr, after an eye-catching display last time out (he was unlucky not to get a hattrick; although one of his brace was a not particularly well-taken penalty...) - just as there was at this time last year. The surge has been a bit more muted than it might have been (barely 50,000 new purchasers so far, though we're still over three days out from the new gameweek deadline), probably because Palace are facing an imminent Blank Gameweek (and most FPL managers are stretched enough figuring out what to do with all of their City and Arsenal players). I like Sarr, he shows a lot of promise; but he's never been a consistent producer in FPL - has a little hot streak here and there, but never gives regular returns over any extended period. He's provided next-to-nothing so far this season. I think he's likely to be rather less involved in the attack than he often was last year, now that they have players like Strand Larsen (in particular), Nketiah and Pino to call upon. And Palace are struggling at the moment, sliding into the mayhem of the relegation zone. Their closing run of fixtures isn't great either: fellow relegation battlers Leeds and West Ham in two of their next three games, and City, Liverpool, and Arsenal still to be faced before the end of the season. Acquiring Sarr now seems a very, very odd choice.

And finally, I risk the wrath of THE MANY, I'm sure, because although he's had - by his usual standards - an absolute dog of a season, Virgil Van Dijk still enjoys an idolatrous following. People are presumably getting excited about the fact he's nabbed 3 goals in the last 7 games; but with defenders, that sort of 'form' is almost invariably just a flash-in-the-pan rather than an emerging trend. And even with those, he's been extraordinarily lucky: many goals/assists have been very dubiously awarded this season, and Virgil has probably been the prime beneficiary of this - his 'winner' against Sunderland, in particular, was clearly an own-goal off Diarra! And while he's still occasionally showing glimpses of his old imperious ways, his performance level has fallen off a cliff this year: he has aged out very quickly and is now looking conspicuously too slow for the Premier League. Even on the new 'defensive points', where you'd expect him to be a fairly reliable returner, his tallies have yo-yo'ed up-and-down widly from week to week: he has earned the extra points a respectable 11 or 12 times, but in rather more weeks he has come nowhere near reaching the threshold for doing so. And 9 clean sheets is nothing to get very excited over. It is only these highly fortuitous recent goals that have briefly lifted him back into the top five FPL defenders; but only just, and he isn't likely to stay there. With Liverpool's struggling season and his own patchy form, he just hasn't come anywhere near justifying his price-tag this year, even in his better runs of form. And Liverpool, at the moment, are looking as bad as they've been all season. Even in that West Ham game, which they somehow managed to win quite comfortably, they were all over the place defensively, and outplayed for much of the game. Yes, Liverpool's run-in doesn't look too bad; they might experience a sharp upturn in performance again as soon as they get Wirtz back (he'd really been starting to make them tick in the last couple of months); and they have currently calamitous Spurs up next. But none of that is really sufficient reason to waste transfers on acquiring an expensive and severely under-performing defender. Over 70,000 people already this week have let sentiment for the old warhorse (or contempt for unravelling Spurs?!) get the better of their judgement.

Not AS BAD as all that....?

I analysed last week why this FPL season seems to have been even more random than usual. And, although I have a few gripes about tinkering with the scoring system by introducing the maddeningly opaque new 'defensive points', most of the reasons for this lie outside the Fantasy game, in the real world of football: VAR decisions getting even worse (largely because the backroom team are now too timid about questioning their on-pitch colleague's original call), the SAOT system foisting more and more hair's-breadth - and increasingly unconvincing - offside calls on us, new defensive systems stifling a lot of creative attacking play, and the new paramountcy of set-piece scoring opportunities leading to all this unseemly wrestling in the penalty area.

And while these shifts have clearly been to the detriment of the game of football, I would say that they haven't necessarily spoiled the game of Fantasy Premier League.

The game has always been vexing, frustrating because of the huge amount of randomness and unpredictability in it. But we have to base our gameplay on identifying the areas where there is some reliable predictability.

Even though there seems to be even more randomness than usual this year, we can still strive to find the rare shoals of predictability occasionally visible amid this sea of chaos.

That has always been the challenge of Fantasy Football. This season... the game just became even more challenging. We should do our best to enjoy that.

A 'successful' FPL team is only a window to the past, not the future

 

A lot of desperate FPL managers seek inspiration from checking out the teams of their mini-league rivals or the current global frontrunners, etc..... and copying them.

That is, of course, CHEATING; and is to be discouraged on moral grounds alone.

But also.... it rarely does much good. As I just pointed out the other week, just about no team is ever 'perfect' anyway; however well we're currently doing, thare are almost inevitably always a few irksome weak spots in our teams that we just don't have enough transfers to deal with.

However, even a team which looks in really good shape, and is enjoying 'success' currently - high rank position, excellent returns in recent weeks - is merely a team which has done well up to now. There is no guarantee that it will continue to do similarly well from here on....

Some players in that prosperous team you examine so enviously have probably been going off the boil in the past few games - or are just about to. New hot streaks of irresistible form may be just emerging, or just about to emerge, in other players. There is no essential reason why a team that did exceptionally well in the last gameweek - or over the last month, or over the season as a whole so far - should do better than any other team in the coming gameweek. (And indeed, this season we seem to have been seeing even more extreme swings of fortune than usual, with good teams having an outstanding return in one gameweek only to collapse to a horrendous result in the next.)

Just COPYING someone else's selections is never a good thing. If you are going to look at other people's teams, at the currently 'most successful' teams, try to analyse why they've done well, why they've done better than you so far. Then - try to assess how well they're likely to do over the next few gameweeks; and see if you can think of how these teams might be improved.

What you should be trying to do is not simply mimic the selections a successful FPL manager has already made, but to anticipate what picks they might make next.

A series of unfortunate events

 

Following on from this early reflection on how my season was going (hypoethetically - since, in fact, the dratted game randomly locked me out of my account right at the start of the new campaign!), I feel I'm about due to offer a 'mid-season' review. In fact, I'm somewhat past due, since I typically - for these purposes - divide the season into three slightly uneven 'thirds': the opening 12 gameweeks, the bleak midwinter run of about 14 gameweeks. and then the final run-in over the last 12 gameweeks. Hence, I usually aim to do an analysis like this in or shortly after Gameweek 26 - but, this year, I was 'busy' with other things....

In that first performance assessment of mine, back around the end of November, I was to a fair extent just 'guessing' at how I might have done, since I hadn't kept a strict record of which players I'd have to chosen to pick when, much less itemised and recorded their weekly points performances. However, since Gameweek 10, I have been 'playing' again more fastidiously, and keeping such a record of my team's results.

And I confess, it hasn't been going all that well. In that opening phase of the season, I was mostly on a slow-but-steady upward track after an epically poor start to the season (if you're down around the 7 or 8 million mark early on, it can take months to claw your way back to a respectable standing!), although I had also been battered by some cruel luck with injuries early on.

In December and January, though, I faltered pretty badly.

I mentioned just the other day how the present FPL season has been a particularly weird, frustrating, and unsatisfying one. One factor I omitted to note in that essay was how often this season the 'sheep picks' have worked out for people. I may have more to say on this soon, about how avoiding the most popular picks and taking a calculated gamble on a slightly less popular option can work both for and against you. This season, at the moment, it is rather dramatically not paying off; at least, not for me.

There was, for example, no particularly convincing argument for why Bruno Fernandes should have been obviously the best and only pick from the Manchester United midfield (though that's the way most people went at the start of the season, mostly out of sentiment) - when he's actually been terribly inconsistent in his FPL returns in recent years (pretty good over the season as a whole, but all of his points coming in two or three intensive 'hot streaks', with devastating fallow spells in between), and seemed set to be played in a much deeper role by Ruben Amorim this year, and was being joined by two potentially prolific 'midfield' goalscorers in Mbeumo and Cunha, who seemed likely to take some of the creative focus away from him. I thought the two forwards-in-disguise looked the better prospects at the start of the season, and (somewhat in defiance of my gut instinct, though it kind of worked out - at first) plumped for Cunha in my initial squad; but he almost immediately got injured. I switched to Mbeumo, but after a lively opening, he was struggling to have the same sort of impact he did last year at Brentford, in a United team who were often a bit of a mess. Bruno, meanwhile, after a bit of a wobbly start, has somehow rediscovered consistency, and is having his best season ever (well, since he first joined United, anyway). And yet... once you've made a decision to go without someone, you often end up remaining without them for a long spell, perhaps forever - because there always seem to be more urgent or more attractive changes to make (Rayan Cherki, Harry Wilson, Enzo Fernandez, Cole Palmer...). And now that he's shot up to 10 million quid, he is getting a little difficult to afford. Basically, I have stuck with Mbeumo throughout (apart from dropping him briefly during AFCON); and.... the jury's still out on whether he'll work out better than Bruno over the second half of the season; they're neck-and-neck at the moment. I am modestly confident that I have made the better choice here (though, in an ideal world, I'd like to have both!); but I did miss out on some very nice hauls from Bruno during the first half of the season.

For similar reasons, I held off on Florian Wirtz, when he finally started to find his feet at Liverpool around mid-December. I've always been a great fan of his, and was optimistic about the impact he might have in the Premier League (though I warned at the start of the season that it might take him a few months to settle in, and he wasn't likely to be a super-prolific goalscorer anyway). I still wasn't convinced about Liverpool's team form (rightly, as it's turned out!), and hence never quite saw Wirtz as a top-five midfield pick - although, perhaps for a while in December and January, he was....

I've been a bit up-and-down with Antoine Semenyo: didn't fancy him at the start of the season, but quickly got on him when he showed such hot early form; ditched him again very promptly when he started blanking; and got him back again promptly when his form again showed an uptick around the beginnng of December. Ah, but then I wasn't confident that he would quickly find his feet at City, or even be an invariable starter (and I'm still not fully confident of that: I suspect we will at least sometimes see a three-way rotation between him, Cherki, and Doku), so I dumped him again when he transferred in January. Of course, I quickly repented of that, when he did indeed turn out to be an invariable starter, and an even more prolific goalscorer for his new club. But damn - that's a lot of transfers to use on one player in just over half a season!!

I was a little slow to get on Harry Wilson too. I recognised his talent, form, potential; but Fulham in general were on a hot streak at that point, and Emile Smith Rowe, who now suddenly looked set to get a regular start as Alex Iwobi & co. were about to depart for AFCON, also seemed very promising - and I initially decided to have a punt on him instead. That didn't seem too bad a choice: he scored a goal in the first game I had him, and played excellently, without producing any more points, in the next couple - before I realised I really needed to be on Wilson.

I failed to get on Phil Foden during his astonishing streak of 55 points inside a fortnight. I refuse to have any regrets about that. Thare were sound reasons for supposing that this was a flash-in-the-pan rather than a sustained upturn in form (as indeed it was), and that it wasn't likely to continue - indeed, that he wasn't likely even to continue to start - for more than 1 or 2 games; although, somehow, he managed to stretch it out to a record-breaking 4 games. It certainly hurt to miss out on those points. But it probably wasn't quite as bad as all that, since the players I held on to instead of introducing him didn't produce too badly either, his output dropped off a cliff again immediately afterwards, and using two transfers to hold him in the squad for such a short spell also undercuts that prodigious return.

Most recently, I've held off on getting Joao Pedro - again, because Chelsea's team form has continued to be erratic, unconvincing; and, in those circumstances, their brief run of 'good' fixtures in January didn't look all that promising. Also, although he's currently playing with supreme confidence, certainly very impressive, he has been very fortunate to pick up so many assists for 'winning' somewhat soft penalties, and also being gifted some goalscoring chances. I like the player, and am trying to figure out a way to get him into my squad (so many transfers needed to deal with injuries at the moment...), but.... the next few fixtures look potentially rather tough; and I don't believe that this recent super-hot streak will continue as hot for the rest of the season. (I think people who have sacrificed Haaland to bring him in may soon regret it.)

And damn, yes, I've missed out on a lot of Gabriel's best returns too. I thought Timber would be the better way to go earlier in the season - not anticipating (who did??) what a crazy hot streak of attacking contributions the big Brazilian would produce. I was for a while doubled-up on him and Timber; but then he got injured, and I didn't bother to bring him back again immediately upon his return, as Arsenal seemed to be potentially suffering a bit of a mid-season wobble. That's looking like it could be yet another perfectly reasonable decision.... that may have gone against me.

And, oh good lord, I've had an absolutely abysmal run with the chips. Twice forced into 'early' use of the Wildcards by an accumulation of injuries and slumps in form, getting a piss-poor return on my first Bench Boost in GW18 (two of my defenders unexpectedly didn't start!), doing only modestly well with my Free Hit (one of my best hauls of the season, but only a middling one overall in an unusually high-scoring gameweek for almost everyone!), plumping for Haaland against Leeds (aaargh!) rather than Haaland against West Ham for my first Triple Captain, and for Timber in the recent Double Gameweek for my second....  Just disaster after disaster!!!

Plenty has gone well for me too: I've stuck with Haaland and Thiago, Rice and Mbeumo, Timber and Tarkowski through most of the season - and they've all produced very nicely for me. Declan Rice has also proven to be a very solid long-term 5th midfield pick. I got on Patrick Dorgu early in his 'hot streak' - unfortunately soon terminated by injury. I swapped out my initial goalkeeper pairing of Henderson and Petrovic for Kelleher and Roefs, and that's been working out pretty well (although Roefs is now injured - damn!). I've also been quite prescient in acquring good value picks like Alex Jimenez and Nico O'Reilly at opportune moments. And I've recently brought Palmer back in - and it's looking (touch wood!) as though I may have chosen just the right time to do that!

But the past couple of months have been very up-and-down for me. Well, a bit more down than up, really! Back in December, I'd just about fought my way back up into the top million. But having missed out on so many fortuitous big hauls (that a lot of FPL managers were lucky enough to benefit from), and having earned next-to-nothing from my chips so far, I have plummeted outside the top 3 million. I'm pretty sure that's my worst position ever at this stage of the season. And I am starting to lose hope that I'll be able to get back into the top million.

In a season as uniquely perverse and cruel as this one, we must find whatever consolation we can. There have been a few bright spots for me, amid all the gloom; not many, but some.

Fortunately, like Captain Scarlet, I am indestructible - in spirit at least, if not in body.

One of the biggest BLIND SPOTS for statisticians

 

I've been a fan of The Purist Football on Youtube for quite a while. He used to produce rather dense video essays, which would only drop very irregularly, perhaps only two or three times a year; but this season he has moved into more frequent positing: still a bit irregular, but usually something - something worthwhile - every few weeks or so.

His latest piece called attention to another of the shortcomings of statistical analysis. This is a topic I've been meaning to do a substantial post of my own on for some time, but I confess I am a bit daunted by the scope of the challenge: there are so many things to be said, few of them good. 

And I confess I hadn't really taken note before of the point The Purist makes here: Most football statistics focus only on 'active contributions', on touches of the ball; they completely overlook the substantial elements of the game which are merely 'passive contributions', off-the-ball work.

Blocking, marking, recovering defensive shape, making decoy runs - these are all vital parts of the game... which stats compilers fail to capture.

This video highlights the particularly pertinent example of Barcelona's Dani Olmo, who is an absolute maestro of the dummy. - an attribute that no conventional statistic even records, let alone attempts to evaulate the potential game impact of. (Often, a great dummy ought to count as an 'assist' - but, of course, it doesn't, because the dummying player avoids making contact with the ball.)

My general attitude to using statistics for FPL purposes is that it should only be done in moderation, and only if you always manage to remain duly mindful of what the statistics are not showing you.

Very few FPL managers, alas, are capable of this. For the majority, it would probably be better to steer clear of statistics altogether.

A little bit of Zen (84)

 

"I didn't want to write history. I wanted to give 90 minutes of joy to people. And I wanted that joy to come not from winning but from being entertained, from witnessing something special. I did all this out of passion."

Arrigo Sacchi

This, for me, is the true essence of football; an essence that Pep and Mikel and their ilk often seem to miss. Sacchi, of course, didn't achieve the sustained success that many of these more modern managers have; but for a few years back around the end of the 1980s, his AC Milan was one of the most beautiful teams ever to play the game, a team that people still swoon to recall nearly four decades later.

I came upon this quotation in 'Inverting the Pyramid', Jonathon Wilson's diverting history of the evolution of football tactics - which I re-read while on holiday in Vietnam this time last year.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 29

 

Again, we've seen a fair number unpleasant selection surprises this week; and some up-and-down performances from the big teams.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Jacob Ramsey's second yellow card for 'simulation' when he went down in the penalty area was a ridiculous decision from Peter Bankes; the player pretty obviously just slipped over. At the moment VAR has no jurisidiction over second yellow card decisions (although, thankfully, that is going to change for the World Cup). Fortunately, his removal actually seemed to galvanise Newcastle, and may have saved the game for the home team rather than costing them a defeat.

Red cards not awarded: 

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Andoni Iraola was convinced Bournemouth should have had a penalty, when Tavernier lost his footing in the act of shooting. It did appear that Kayode might have caught his Achilles, but the contact was so fleeting (and not clearly visible on any of the TV camera-angles) that I think you can forgive the officials 'missing' this one.

Leeds were aggieved that Luke O'Nien had briefly had both his arms around Struijk's neck at a first-half corner, but the Dutch defender went down very easily, and there wasn't really much in it - a 50/50 sort of call. (Leeds were also unhappy with the penalty awarded against Ampadu, but that one looked straightforward enough: the first contact on his arm was slight and unavoidable, but he did then appear to make a deliberate second movement towards the ball, prodding it away with his elbow.) They might have had another shout at the end, when a corner fell against Dan Ballard's arm; he was in the middle of a ruck of players, and knew nothing about it - but with the mess the Handball Law is in at the moment, we often see these given.

Haaland went down after a collision with Matz Sels. He was 'looking for it', but the goakeeper's challenge was rash, culpable. The only reason referee Darren England didn't give it must be because of Haaland's reputation as a bit of a con artist in these situations; the only reason VAR didn't intervene must be because of their excessive timidity about challenging on-pitch decisions this season, especially for penalties.

At least VAR was doing its job, for once, at Fulham, directing referee Matt Donohue to take a second look, after he'd initially awarded the home side a penalty when Tom Cairney went down in the act of shooting; Castellanos had indeed been innocently in the way of the Fulham player's kick, not making any kind of challenge himself. These days, alas, the VAR team almost never has the courage to question an onfield penalty decision like this.

Tight/dubious offsides: Ollie Watkins appeared to have given Villa the lead for a second time when he supplied an emphatic finish to a lightning quick breakaway - but SAOT ultimately determined that his shoulder had been inifinitesimally closer to the goal-line than the last defender's. This was another instance where there are questions about the reliability of the timing of the SAOT freezeframe, because to the naked eye he had looked well onside - and this was a call that might have turned the course of the match.

Ismaila Sarr might have had a hattrick on Thursday night against Spurs: his opening effort, a solo  breakaway, was eventually ruled out for offside by one of those deeply unconvincing SAOT graphics; everyone in the stadium thought he had looked 'on' by about a foot, but the computerised decision system apparently reckoned his forehead had been 'off'. (But, dear me, that guy should not be on penalties.)

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed:  

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries:  Robin Roefs has strained a thigh-muscle doing the splits to make a save at the weekend, so was a late omission against Leeds on Tuesday, replaced by his new understudy, January signing Melker Ellborg. Granit Xhaka, only recently back from injury, was also rested - though he came on for the last 35 minutes.

Saliba was suffering with a knock, so Mosquera started in his place; while Brighton were without their defensive stalwart Lewis Dunk.

Liam Rosenior made multiple changes to his Chelsea line-up for the visit to Villa, the most momentous being his dropping of Sanchez in goal (the third most popular pick - after the stupidly over-popular Raya and Dubravka - with an ownership of nearly 14%) in favour of Jorgensen, but Reece James was also switched into midfield, making room for Gusto to get a start at right-back, Fofana came back into defence in place of Tosin, and Garnacho, who had seemed to have fallen from favour, came back in on the wing in place of the suspended Neto.

Eddie Howe was also moved to drop a keeper in apparently dodgy form, replacing Pope (only 4.5% owned in FPL; though that's not an insignificant figure) with Ramsdale for the visit of Manchester United. Woltemade was also missing, the latest victim of a virus doing the rounds. And Carrick replaced Dalot with Mazraoui - presumably just a 'rest'.

Harry Wilson hadn't recovered from the sore ankle he suffered at the weekend, so young Josh King got another chance.

Near misses:  Marcus Tavernier might have had a hattrick against an out-of-sorts Brentford: first, he put a curler just wide early on, then rounded off an incisive break by beating Kelleher with a great sliding effort only to see it hit the foot of the post (and might have won a penalty in this moment too), and late on unleashed an absolute scorcher that smashed against the near-post. Later still, his super cut-back was drilled just wide of the far-post by Kroupi... Nothing broke for the poor guy in that game.

Idrissa Gana Gueye nearly added a late third goal against Burnley on Tuesday night when his fierce dipper from the edge of the box smashed against the crossbar.

City really should have beaten Forest much more comfortably: Semenyo unlieashed a fierce shot inches outside the near-post in the opening minutes, and Haaland had a good deflected effort loop on to the roof of the net early in the second-half.

Kieran Trippier saw his floated cross beat everyone - and come back off the inside of the far post.

Big misses/big saves: Sunderland's stand-in keeper Ellborg made a very good save at the foot of his post from Stach's low free-kick.

Jose Sa probably produced the save of the gameweek on Tuesday night, Rio Ngumoha's cross-shot on to the post; athough Jordan Pickford was running him very close with another worldie, an amazing reaction save in the dying seconds to thwart Lyle Foster's close-range flicked volley.

Ryan Yates got a free header at the near-post from a late corner that could have nicked all three points for Forest against title-chasers City, but he blasted the chance wide of the post.

Raya made a rare boo-boo, passing the ball straight to a Brighton player from the edge of his box after just two minutes; fortunately for him, Gabriel quickly dropped in behind him and was fairly comfortably able to head clear Baleba's feeble attempt at a lob.

The Villa v Chelsea game might well have been even more high-scoring: Martinez managed to block a point-black header from Joao Pedro early on, and short afterwards Jorgensen made a great one-armed stop to deny a fierce drive from Watkins. Garnacho had a great late chance to grab a fifth goal for Chelsea, after being set up by Palmer and Cucurella, but shot tamely at Martinez's legs. And then Tammy Abraham looped a header against the crossbar in the dying moments.

Anthony Gordon snuck in round the back at a corner routine to get an unmarked chance at the far post, but skewed his effort wide. A little later, Aaron Ramsdale pulled off a very good flying save from a fierce dipping shot from Zirkzee that was bound for the top right corner.

Hermansen had to make a good save with his leg from a Josh King effort.

Outstanding goals: Elliot Anderson, of all people, coming up with a pinger from well outside the box.... to hand the title to Arsenal (possibly...)!

Will Osula, only on the field from the 86th minute, nicked a late winner for Newcastle with a delicious curler from just inside the box. Amazingly, he is owned by around 25,000 FPL managers; but I rather doubt if any of them started him.

Outstanding performances: Joao Pedro and Marcus Tavernier both had stupdendous games. But Tavernier, in fact, played the better of the two - yet came away with only 2 FPL points, against Pedro's 19!! Ain't no justice in this game of ours....

Big mistakes: Habib Diarra took an absolutely dreadful penalty for Sunderland on Tuesday night - but Karl Darlow made an even worse mess of saving it. Sometimes, it's just your night....

A dreadful blunder from Leno gifted Summerville the chance to claim all three points late in the game. Alisson had likewise handed Wolves their late win the night before.

Bad luck/good luck: Andre's last-gasp winner against Liverpool needed a huge deflection off a defender to wrong-foot Alisson (and it might be doubted if his initial shot was even on-target, although he has been credited with the goal).

Saka's shot from wide on the right shouldn't have been a problem, but it took a wicked glancing deflection off Baleba; Verbruggen was still behind it, but off-balance - and couldn't stop bouncing into the goal off his heel.

Ezri Konsa nearly put a mishit clearance into his own net in the first-half, and was hugely relieved to see his shinner loop millimentres over the bar. And a rare moment of unselfishness from Garnacho - squaring the ball to Joao Pedro to complete his hattrick, when he might have shot himself - had rather a big impact on the FPL points from the game; if he'd finished the move himself, Palmer would have got the assist, and quite possibly the third bonus point also.... On such small decisions and tiny margins do all our FPL fortunes hang!

FPL weirdness: The usual doubts about the counting of 'saves', 'defensive contributions', etc.... And how on earth did Marcus Tavernier, 'man of the match' by a mile, not even get close to earning 1 bonus ponit??? Something going wrong 'round here....

Unexpected results: Bournemouth v Brentford really should not have ended goalless. Liverpool getting beaten by bottom-of-the-table Wolves might look like a bit of a surprise, but given how ropey their form has been recently, it's not that much of a shock. City being held to a draw by Forest, Chelsea winning so comfortably away from home, 10-man Newcastle squeaking a win against United to end Michael Carrick's winning streak, and Arsenal sneaking another narrow win in a game in which they were largely outplayed.... were all rather more surprising.

Apart from Ellborg (who??) and Andre, the FPL 'Team of the Week' actually looks pretty reasonable, for once. And, after the utter shit-show of the weekend's refereeing, the decision-making has been mostly pretty good - although there have still been a couple of highly dubious offside calls, and a few missed penalty awards,... and a fair old welter of other 'lucky' incidents of various kinds, and a lot of injury absences/rest rotations. The global average is an almost-healthy 54 points (a big jump up after the final game; probably not because a lot of people were on Spurs or Palace players, but because almost everyone had at least one or two auto-subs promoted into their starting line-ups at the end of the gameweek!).  Overall, this one's ended up looking a fairly average 7 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 29 (25/26)

Not too many new injury doubts emerging at the weekend - but the ones we have seen all happen to be to very highly-owned players, so many FPL managers are facing a little bit of a crisis for this vexed Midweek Gameweek.

And with many of the managerial press conferences not happening until Tuesday, we won't have a clear picture of availability and likely line-ups until fairly shortly before the deadline. And, with evening kick-offs, late-breaking news on likely starting elevens - and the FPL deadline itself - will only happen after half the world has gone to bed.

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 29?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Declan Rice came off with a knock 15 minutes before the end against Chelsea on Sunday. Martin Odegaard was also missing (again) for that game, with a knee problem.

Bournemouth striker Evanilson suffered a dead leg against Sunderland on Saturday and has been struggling since.

Vitaly Janelt was a late omission against Burnley, and apparently has a metatarsal injury which will now keep him out for a while. Reiss Nelson, supposedly back from his long injury woes, also missed that match with a calf-strain, and remains doubtful.

Winger Marcus Edwards had to miss Burnley's last match after a training knock.

Joachim Andersen was an unexpected absentee for Fulham at the weekend because of illness; it's not clear if he's yet recovered.

Harry Wilson limped off 20 minutes before the end against Spurs after suffering a knock to his ankle, but Marco Silva seems hopeful he might be OK again for the West Ham game on Wednesday night. 

Joe Rodon, only recently back from injury, felt tightness in his hamstring against City at the week, but scans seem to be all clear, so Daniel Farke is hopeful he will be able to play this midweek.James Justin is also a doubt, after suffering a gashed leg in the weekend game.

The BIGGIE of this gameweek (of the season...) is that Erling Haaland missed the weekend's game against Leeds because of a late training knock, and Pep was initially hesitant to say when he might be back; but now, apparently, things are looking much more promising on that. Still, a yellow-flag is a yellow-flag....

Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire came off early on Sunday against Palace, suffering with a bug. (Just about nobody owns either of them at the moment; but it is worrying that other Manchester United players might suddenly drop out, if there's something going around.)

Jacob Ramsey was also pulled off at half-time against Everton because he was suffering with an illness. He is now reportedly over that problem, though it's not clear how much of training he's been able to attend since the weekend. Nick Woltemade has now been laid low (with the same bug?); and there may be concerns about something running through the Newcastle camp.

Stefan Ortega was another late omission at the weekend, having picked up a calf problem in the European game against Fenerbahce a few days before; not too serious, but he's likely to miss the game against City as well.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Maxence Lacroix has to serve a one-match ban for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence at the weekend. Pedro Neto also has to miss a game after earning two yellow cards against Arsenal.

Cristian Romero and Freddie Potts are serving the last games of their long bans this gameweek.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I haven't had any Newcastle or Palace players for a while, but I am worried that they are now joining Spurs in pariah territory.

And although Liverpool were ultimately able to come away with a high-scoring win against West Ham last Saturday, they were absolutely bloody awful (especially in the first-half, especially in defence) and scarcely deserved even a point from the game.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Jordan Pickford!!! (I have tended to feel all season that he's a bit too expensive, and that Everton's form isn't quite solid enough to justify him being an FPL goalkeeper pick, but.... he is the best keeper in the league. And he should have got 20 extra points for that save!)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!