"We come to love that which we experience every day. But we can grow to hate that which we love every day."
GW
This, alas, is the way of the world. Familiarity breeds affection. That can lead to obsession. But ultimately, also, to ennui. And finally, very often, to contempt.
I have often slipped into the ennui zone with FPL - but I've never yet fallen out of love with it. Perhaps I will one day.... Perhaps.
[What else am I going to write about on the eve of Valentine's Day??]
We all use the term 'linchpin' all the time, often, perhaps, without fully appreciating its original meaning. In the physical world, rather than the realm of metaphor, it is the simplest form of mechanical fastening - usually securing a wheel to its axle. So, yes - it is the thing without which the wheels fall off...
In the football context, it is most often applied to the industrious, combative central midfielder who tends to sit fairly deep and fulfill a mostly defensive role (providing cover in front of the back-line to stop or disrupt or at least slow down counter-attacks, and trying to get back to provide an extra body in the box if such a break does slip past him), but also often being mainly responsible for setting the tempo of the game (knowing when to move the ball on quickly, and when to pause for a few seconds to allow teammates to recover their positions or catch their breath; knowing when to go for a progressive pass, and knowing when it's more sensible to opt for a low-risk, time-buying layoff sideways or backwards...), as well as being a crucial steadying, confidence-building influence in the team (Pep memorably said earlier this season, of Rodri, that his players would be far less nervous when protecting a narrow lead in the closing phase of the game if they knew the Spaniard was there to receive the ball from them - with absolutely no chance that he would give it up to the other side cheaply),... and also, perhaps, just tending to set the psychological tone of a game (establishing the level of competitiveness, the intensity of energy and desire - and sometimes just making it clear how much it's going to hurt opponents to try to get past your team or to take the ball off your team...).
I have always felt that players like this are key to the success of any top side. Rodri, or Vieira or Keane back in the Noughties, or (going right back to my childhood) guys like Graeme Souness and John McGovern and Billy Bremner.... were not the most attractive ball-players or the most idolised members of their teams; but those teams would not, I think, have enjoyed much or any of the success they did without them.
Few people - other than particularly astute Villa fans - would probably have appreciated that Boubacar Kamara was one of their 'most important' players now. But I fancy his loss is likely to be more keenly felt than that of Tielemans or McGinn (also ruled out recently), or even than the absence of one of their main creative players - Rogers, Buendia, Watkins - would be. Similarly, we have seen a number of times that Chelsea usually struggle to assert themselves in games when Moises Caicedo is injured or suspended. And I recently learned the astonishing statistic that, since the Brazilian joined the club four years ago, Newcastle have never yet managed to win a league game without him!
This is the importance of the central defensive midfielder for FPL; you won't often want them in your squad for their points potential (because, even with the handy lift of the additional 'defensive points' this season, as well as a few untypical little sprees of goalscoring from some of them, which have significantly elevated the totals of players like James Garner, Elliot Anderson, and Moises Caicedo, a primarily defensive player is rarely going to be anywhere near as much of a points-producer as a regular goalscorer classified by the game as a 'midfielder'*). However, you should be very alert to the impact that their fitness, and their level of performance, can have on those around them. [I commented last week on how Pascal Gross, Angel Gomes, and perhaps Douglas Luiz, were for me the most 'interesting' of this year's mid-season transfers-in, precisely because of this potential knock-on effect they might have, which could boost the FPL value of certain of their teammates.]
And this is now my only major worry for Arsenal as they seek to realise the potential for a multi-trophy season. Declan Rice, fabulous and versatile player though he is, has repeatedly shown that he was not able to fulfill a holding midfield role for them, when Partey was missing (at least, not on his own; he can contribute usefully to this task when paired with someone whose natural strengths are more suited to it). Meanwhile, Martin Zubimendi, good though he is, is not yet, I think, quite as impressive in this niche as Thomas Partey was at his best. And they don't have any cover for him...
People always focus on the more obviously influential players at the club, and fret how an injury to Raya or Gabriel or Rice or Saka might upset their title charge. But if they lose Zubimendi to a serious injury,..... I think they might be f@*ed!
* Yes, I know Rice and Guimaraes and Enzo Fernandez are up near the head of the FPL midfielder rankings at the moment; but they are players who do provide a well-above-average goal threat, as well as being a major source of potential assists from set-pieces. And yes, even the less obviously 'box-to-box' Garner, Anderson, and Gravenberch are quite well placed too, having climbed above 100 points for the season. But the big difference in the game this year is not the supposed impact of the new 'defensive points' (nice to have, but you wouldn't, shouldn't be putting any player in your starting eleven purely for this), but the fact that - for a wide variety of reasons - almost all of the 'usual suspects' we'd usually look to among the goalscoring midfielders to be our major points-returners for the season... have failed to come up with much. There have been a few (Antoine Semenyo, Bruno Fernandes, Harry Wilson, Morgan Rogers) who've done pretty well; and there are some more we can still have hopes for (Wirtz, Cherki, Palmer, Saka..., maybe even Mo Salah??). But, compared to most recent years, the 'midfielder' category is almost devoid of any significant returns this year: Garner, Guimaraes, et al are not up near the top of the tree because they've been outstanding; even with a fat boost from 'defensive points', their current totals would be nothing to get excited about in any other year.
A few unpleasant selection surprises again this week; although, at least, not too many new injury disasters to add to our FPL troubles.
These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents.
I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).
Red cards awarded: Jake O'Brien's sending-off was at least pretty clear-cut: one of the few big decisions in this gameweek that no-one can have much of an argument with.
Red cards not awarded: Kenny Tete appeared to have had a surreptitious tug on Semenyo's braids in the penalty area, but after some rumination, VAR felt that the TV pictures didn't give a decisive view of the incident (I bet there were some camera-angles that did; and they just didn't get around to accessing them). Phil Foden was also rather lucky to get away with a clumsy challenge on Bassey, planting his studs in the back of the defender's Achilles as he ran away from him - amazing that wasn't at least given a serious look by VAR.
Brobbey was wrestled to the ground in the penalty area by Konate; he went down 'easily', but he was clearly being held - I don't know how VAR can not give these! Ekitike was even more fortunate to go unpunished when he caught hold of Roefs's chin to pull him off-balance as he was trying to clear the ball: it was only a very brief contact, and possibly 'accidental' - but it was again a very clear and incontrovertible foul; and, as contact with the face, it might well have been considered worthy of a red card.
Penalties awarded: Both penalties in the Chelsea v Leeds game were uncontentious.
Rayan's lunge did not appear to make any contact with Branthwaite, yet a penalty was awarded - and VAR didn't seem to pay the incident any further attention.
Penalties not awarded:
Tight/dubious offsides: Joe Willock's apparent opener against Spurs was eventually ruled out by VAR; yet again, the SAOT graphic was severely unhelpful, unconvincing - appearing to show that the last Spurs defender's shoulder was indeed at least marginally nearer to the byline than any part of Willock's body. A strange one. Casemiro also had a goal chalked off for a very tight offside; to the naked eye - and to the player himself - he had looked narrowly 'off'; but the SAOT picture again confused rather than clarified the call.
Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Palace have a fair case that the ball bounced up on to Ugochukwu's arm at the beginning of the move that led to Burnley's second goal (and we didn't hear that VAR was even looking at that?).
Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Calvert-Lewin was a late omission on Tuesday, owning to an illness.
Both Pep and Marco Silva made a raft of substitutions just shy of the hour. And Haaland was withdrawn at half-time after suffering a heavy challenge.
Matty Cash was a last-minute omission, owing to a knee problem.
Eddie Howe left Hall, Wissa, and Tonali on the bench at Spurs.
Near misses: Wirtz had a stinging 25-yard drive well palmed away by Roefs, and shortly afterwards hit a 15-yard cross-shot against the foot of the post.
Big misses/big saves: Cole Palmer unbelievably sky-ed a late effort over the bar from a few yards out - when presented with an open-goal by Caicedo's low cross from the right.
Kadioglu cracked a long-range effort against the cross-bar in the first-half against Villa (Martinez got fingertips to it, but not enough for it to have counted as a 'save' - although it probably did!)
Harry Wilson fluffed Fulham's best chance of the match (twice!) in the first-half at The Etihad - an opportunity he would surely have converted any other time in the last couple of months. Fulham also had a dangerous goal-mouth scramble in the closing seconds of the game, but couldn't find a way to prod home the consolation goal that would have wrecked everyone's 'clean sheet' points for City...
Ekitike had a free header near the end, but couldn't get his effort on target. Moments later, a Salah half-volley went just inches wide of the far post.
Martin Dubravka pulled off a superb save from an Ismaila Sarr volley in the final moments, to save the points for Burnley.
José Sá pulled off an important double-save late on against Forest to secure the draw - and make him (so far...) the gameweek's top-scoring keeper. In the first-half, Forest had enjoyed a 6-on-1 break, but Hudson-Odoi's cross found new-boy Lorenzo Lucca, who somehow spooned his effort over the top. At the death, Wolves had a 4-on-1 break, but this time Mateus Mané fired his shot tamely straight at the keeper.
Wan-Bissaka made a great goal-line block with his knee to preserve West Ham's lead.
Outstanding goals:
Outstanding performances:
Big mistakes: An awful mix-up between Sanchez, Acheampong, and Gusto gifted Leeds an equaliser they didn't really deserve.
Bad luck: Lerma's own-goal was wretchedly unfortunate - Henderson's parry pinging into him from no distance, and being deflected into the net off his heel: one of the most improbable - and least culpable - o.g.'s I've ever seen.
FPL weirdness: Surely Haaland should have had an assist for City's first goal? It looked to me as if he won the header cleanly, even if it subsequently got a bit of a deflection off the nearest defender on the way through to Semenyo to poke it home.
And Van Dijk should not have been awarded Liverpool's late winner: the final decisive touch clearly came off the back of Diarra's head. (Maybe there's still time to reappraise that one? It really makes a huge difference in FPL land!! It's probably a case of a decision prejudiced by sentiment: with the assist currently awarded to Salah's corner, Super Mo has moved level with Steven Gerrard as Liverpool's second highest provider of assists [he'll never catch Kenny Dalglish...].)
There was another similar aberration at Villa Park, with Mings unaccountably being credited with an 'assist' on Hinshelwood's unfortunate late own-goal - though he clearly didn't get any contact on the ball, and the assist should properly have been given to Leon Bailey taking the corner.
There's also something very weird with the counting of 'saves' this week, with many keepers only being credited with 1 or 2, despite having fairly 'busy' games; Henderson and Dubravka seem to have been particularly hard done-by, with an official total of just 1 each - despite clearly getting at least a few more than that even in the brief TV highlights.
Unexpected results: Chelsea really should have won comfortably against a Leeds side who were well below their recent best - but somehow they didn't.
The normally robust Everton defence wouldn't usually be expected to give away two such soft goals as they did against Bournemouth on Tuesday.
Liverpool really didn't deserve that win over Sunderland. Nor did Villa against Brighton.
Burnley put up a very spirited performance at Palace, but no-one would really have expected them to pull out a win here - especially after going 2-0 down! This was the most topsy-turvy result in a pretty wild gameweek.
Few people would have bet on either Forest or Wolves to keep a clean sheet - even against each other.
Although Manchester United were well below their recent levels, West Ham's clinging on to a draw against them was unexpected, and only just barely deserved.
The FPL 'Team of the Week' is another odd one, though not as crazy as most this season have been: José Sá is one of the few goalkeepers to have managed a clean sheet, which will have been an unexpected bonus for the many FPL managers who got him in just for this double gameweek; and the defence (currently; it will doubtless mostly be replaced by doubling Arsenal players eventually...) does at least include four fairly popular players (albeit ones who haven't consistently been producing at the highest level): Semenyo and Palmer, though, are the only attacking players that anyone owns. Thus, it's so far looking like another fairly miserable gameweek average; only 40 points, at the moment.
Liverpool were very, very fortunate to come out on top in a game where Sunderland mostly matched them pretty well; and they probably should have both conceded a penalty and had Ektike sent off - so, that rankles as a particularly unjust result in this batch of games. In fact, 6 of the first 9 games didn't really pan out according to expectation or desert. And there have been an usually large number of at least slightly dubious decisions, and non-appearances by popular players. I think this is actually one of the worst, weirdest gameweeks we've had in a long while, and even with two games left to play, it's already looking like at least an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.
This is a weirdly long gameweek, with Wolves v Arsenal (moved forward from Gameweek 31, when Arsenal will now play against City in the League Cup Final) scheduled for next Wednesday evening - yet bizarrely attached to this gameweek rather than the much more adjacent one following. No, it makes no sense. Those two teams thus both enjoy a double gameweek (although 'enjoy' is probably not the appropriate word for experience Wolves supporters can expect).
Amazingly enough - for about the first time I can ever recall - there appear to be no new injuries emerging from the weekend's games; well, hardly any (only three??). However, since most of the week's press conferences happened on Monday morning, there is a chance that managers were not yet fully apprised of the latest 'bad news'; and, of course, more misfortunes may have unfolded during training on Monday or Tuesday. If I catch any late updates on Tuesday evening, I'll try to add them. (But I live in an advanced timezone, where the FPL deadline for this gameweek isn't until the early hours of the morning. So, I'll probably be in bed long before the 'late-breaking news' breaks... Sorry.)
I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!
[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year). Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage.
I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]
So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 26?
Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?
Leandro Trossard had to come off with an injury against Sunderland on Saturday: no further news on that, it seems.
Andrey Santos also left the field with an injury of some sort in the Wolves game (but he's a fairly infrequent starter, anyway).
Forest defender Murillo missed last Friday's game at Leeds with a calf-strain and might still be doubtful.
Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?
Dominik Szoboszlai is banned for one game, or his 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity offence' (even though, paradoxically, a 'goal' was still scored....) in the dying moments of Sunday's game against City. Since Joe Gomez appears to be still not fully fit, and Liverpool don't really have any other defenders any more, it seems likely that Curtis Jones will have to take his place on Wednesday as the latest makeshift right-back.
Cristian Romero is starting a three-match 'serious foul play' ban for clogging Caicedo at the weekend (although, to my mind, it was entirely accidental; rash and reckless, yes, but not vicious). Radu Dragusin will probably to deputise for him (and if he or Van de Ven get injured, Spurs will presumably have to recruit one of their ball-boys into the defence...).
West Ham defender Jean-Clair Todibo is serving the second part of his three-game 'violent conduct' ban for having put his hand around Joao Pedro's throat the other week.
And Kevin Schade is serving the last leg of his three-match ban.
Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?
Last weekend already somehow feels like a month or so away (ah, all-day drinking during and after the Super Bowl yesterday - that would account for the worse-than-usual memory fog). So, no - no particular stinkers come to mind this time.
Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?
Most folks seem to have been using their transfers this week to load up for the Double Gameweek; although I find this quite baffling, as two games for Wolves is arguably more of a disadvantage than an advantage, and it's hard to see any of their players having better prospects than those you have already - even with the potential lift of a second fixture next week. And surely everyone ought to have three Arsenal players already??? (What's worse, the two most popular new picks are Gyokeres and Zubimendi, who - apart from a few players like Eze who might be unlikely to start in both games [but then, so is Gyokeres!] - are absolutely the last two I would pick for this double.)
Cole Palmer is also proving predictably popular with The Sheep (though not as popular as perhaps might have been expected, owing to the distracting gravity-well of the Arsenal double gameweek), having gained over 200,000 new owners since his 20-point haul at the weekend. I am one of Palmer's biggest fans, but I still didn't think his all-around performance looked all that sharp against Wolves: two of his goals were penalties (and pretty soft awards, at that); and he himself complained of being still not fully fit in his post-game interview. His inclusion requires a major squad revamp, as he'd currently be the only player priced above 9 million worth having (apart from Haaland), and thus everyone would surely have to make at least one or two additional transfers to shuffle the budget around to accommodate him. And I don't think he's worth that trouble, yet; he looks like he still needs at least one or two more weeks.
Diogo Dalot is the one player who's caught my eye - as having steadily better and better, more and more influential games in the last few weeks.
Oh, and Brentford's Dango Ouattara had an absolute banger of a game at the weekend.
BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!
Darn it - I had thought we were due for a nice little rest from the incessant demands-for-attention of Fantasy Football, since next weekend is given over to the 4th Round of the FA Cup... Alas, it had slipped my attention on this occasion that, in order to fit all the League matches within our too-short number of available weeks, we have to cram in another midweek gameweek this week.
There's a raft of games tomorrow, Tuesday evening (early hours of Wednesday in my timezone - making it impossible to wait until close to the deadline to make squad changes...); the next FPL deadline is 6pm (UK time) on the Tuesday 10th of February.
Never a moment's peace....
And don't forget, this is now a Double Gameweek for Wolves and Arsenal, as their Gameweek 31 match (when Arsenal will be playing City in the League Cup Final) has been moved forward to Wednesday the 18th of February - and, although that's a full 6 days after the last of the originally scheduled GW26 games and obviously far more adjacent to the following weekend's fixtures,.... it's been declared to be part of Gameweek 26, rather than Gameweek 27.... for reasons known only to the League's mysterious scheduling minions.
I'll try to put out one of my usual updates on injury news and such this afternoon (but I might not manage it!).
Not too many new injury worries or unexpected selection woes this week... What a nice change!!
These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... this time, I'm going to try something new: just a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents.
I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).
Red cards awarded: Romero's sending-off just before the half-hour at Old Trafford was not obviously unjust, but it was, for me, on the harsher end of things. It was misfortuitous that Casemiro's toe-studs had got stuck in the turf just before the Argentinian caught him on the inside of his ankle and so caused his foot to roll over so painfully; the actual contact was really not that hard. And we have seen many similar incidents in the last year or two dismissed as "having insufficient force to seriously endanger the opponent" or as "being an accidental contact from a natural follow-through". I think the Argentinian was a bit rash to have such a vigorous swish at a ball that was about to not be there any more; but it wasn't a really bad foul.
Red cards not awarded: Alisson's late penalty-foul on Nunes was not in any doubt; but the keeper had been fortunate in the first-half when he took the ball off a breaking Marmoush with a very high foot, and the Egyptian forward flinched out of the way of contact; if he had been caught, even slightly, that would have been a certain red card. Not a wrong decision - but a very lucky near-miss.
Penalties awarded: The handball decision against Jacob Murphy was very harsh: his arm was close to his side, not moving towards the ball - and the shot was fired directly at him from close range. If we accepted that blocking a goal-bound shot should always be a 'strict liability' offence, then fine - but I don't think that's the rule at the moment. If there's supposed to be some 'unnatural position' culpability element in the offence, then this looked like a bad call. A penalty for Newcastle seemed 'fair' on the balance of play (especially as they'd had a very harsh one awarded against them earlier), but Kayode's contact on the back of Guimaraes's leg was light and accidental - there was really nothing in that.
Both of Chelsea's awards were probably correct, but a bit soft: a slight - accidental! - treading on Joao Pedro's toe for the first, and a very, very light push (and only just barely over the line!) in his back for the second.
Penalties not awarded: Cunha suffered a shin-to-shin or knee-to-knee contact from Pape Sarr in the first half that tripped him on the edge of the box: not a bad foul, but very defiinitely a foul - and it looked like the point of contact was probably right over the outer edge of the line. It deserved a full consideration from VAR, which it seemed not to get.
Two Sunderland players appeared to get wrestled to the ground in the Arsenal penalty area at a set-piece, in the final action of the first-half; it should have been looked at by VAR, but apparently wasn't - as the referee immediately blew the whstle to take the players off the field.
Marmoush surely should have had a penalty after 15 minutes at Anfield: Konate had both hands on him, and put his leg across - the combination of which threw him off balance as he entered the box. The contact was, yes, brief and light; but it was plainly deliberate and illegal, and more than enough to bring the man down. The only question should have been whether the contact had 'started outside the box' (possibly; but the consequential part of it was clearly on or just over the line). Somehow, the VAR team seemed to find this incident unworthy of their consideration. In the second-half, Salah was hauled down by a tug on the shirt from Guehi: the holding had certainly begun outside the box, but continued into it - and it will always be a bit of a grey area as to where the 'decisive moment' of such an illegal contact occurred. To me, that one looked like a penalty.
Tight/dubious offsides: Gabriel Jesus's break from the half-way line (which nearly produced a second goal barely a minute after Zubimendi gave them the lead) was very, very narrowly offside (and yet again, the SAOT graphic was a bit unconvincing - somehow making the margin look three times as big as it had to the naked eye!). This move ended in a penalty award from Sam Barrott when Jesus was nudged off the ball by Ballard while trying to round Roefs. Didn't look like a penalty to me; but VAR never looked at it, because of the prior offside. (I worry that they perhaps wouldn't have looked at it, even if Jesus had been adjudged onside, because they'd become too preoccupied with that issue....)
Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Udogie had to go off with a knock after just 54 minutes.
Noni Madueke was pulled of just shy of the hour.
Nuno dropped Areola in goal, in favour of Mads Hermansen - a potential blow to over 250,000 Fantasy managers (although most of them, perhaps, will only have the French keeper as a back-up option rather than their preferred starter).
Rosenior rested Reece James in favour of Malo Gusto.
Strand Larsen did indeed start straight away for Palace, replacing Mateta. Van Hecke is apparently struggling with a previously undisclosed hamstring problem, while Minteh and Welbeck were surprisingly left on the bench.
Cherki and Foden were this week's victims of Pep Roulette (and Foden did not look happy about it), as Marmoush and Ait-Nouri surprisingly got starts against Liverpool.
Near misses: Calvert-Lewin smashed a header against the crossbar early on in Friday night's game at Elland Road.
Mbeumo's best chance of the game, a hooked half-volley from Diallo's lay-off, flew a bit too high. Cunha and Simons also had good 20-yard efforts fly just wide in Saturday's opening game.
Janelt scrambled a Wissa effort off the line - and an early two-goal lead for the home side would surely have changed the outcome of the match; indeed, Janelt went down the other end and headed an equaliser shortly afterwards.
Mateus Mané whacked a 17-yard curler against the post.
Smith Rowe beat Pickford with a 20-yard dipper but saw it slam against the crossbar, while Chukwueze later unleashed an absolute screamer from 25 yards which grazed the top of the bar. In the same game, Jake O'Brien headed a corner against the post.
Big misses/big saves: Fernandes's floated chip found Sesko unmarked in the middle of the box in the final seconds of the game, but he headed softly straight at the keeper. Ektike fluffed a rather similar effort from a Salah cross against City.
Kelleher produced the 'Save of the Day' from a fierce cross-shot from Thiaw. Donnarumma's crucial late save from Macallister's long-range effort was perhaps a bit more showy than it needed to be - but still very good.
Outstanding goals: A 20-yard pinger from Zubimendi for Arsenal's first: perhaps very slightly mishit, but fizzed low, with a wicked in-swing to beat Roefs and thud in off the foot of the near post. And that 33-yard rocket of a free-kick from Szoboszlai!
Strangely, that was the only really striking effort this week. In most recent weeks we've had 3, 4, 5 bangers from outside the area (January's 'Goal of the Month' selection on the BBC was just ridiculous!!); but none of that this time, despite there being a rather higher number of goals overall (29).
Outstanding performances: Cole Palmer - suddenly recapturing the magic! Only about 12% of FPL managers own him at the moment: they must be very happy (though I suspect an awful lot of those are 'zombie accounts' that bought him at the start of the season, but soon stopped playing the game - rather than people who took a hopeful punt on bringing him back in for the present short run of relatively easy fixtures, before he'd recovered his form...). Although, yes, two of them were - slightly dubious - penalties... And he said afterwards that he still isn't "proper fit".
Big mistakes: NONE, remarkably.
Bad luck: Very unfortunate for Vitaly Mykolenko to have Pickford's save of a Raul effort ricochet off him into the goal! In the same game, Leno was perhaps even more unlucky to have a corner bounce in off his fist as he failed to get around the blocking Everton player.
Rayan Cherki's 'goal' in the dying seconds at Anfield would have been slightly lucky if it had stood, since he clearly intended a through-ball rather than an attempt on the goal left unguarded by Alisson's desperate foray into the attacking third. But equally, it seemed rather unlucky that it was disallowed because of a holding foul on Haaland by Szoboszlai (which inevitably earned him a sending-off, almost certainly the latest of the entire season...). And indeed, but for that foul, it would have been Haaland's goal. So, there were all kinds of massive FPL points fluctuations across the multiverse in that little 10-second fiasco!!
FPL weirdness: Dalot doing better on the BPS than Fernandes this week seems a trifle odd. And we have a rather low number of players earning 'defensive points' this week (although the top performers on this metric, Garner, Anderson, and Caicedo came through again): only 29, I think (4 of them from West Ham?!).
Unexpected results: Leeds's win over Forest on Friday night was not 'unexpected' in itself, though the ease of it, and the eventual margin of victory were; this was a game where the visiting team strangely failed to turn up.
A hell of a ding-dong between Newcastle and Brentford, with the home side ultimately very unlucky to lose it - as they got punished for Trippier going to sleep in the closing minutes.
The FPL 'Team of the Week' is again superlatively weird - with Palmer, Dalot, and Guimaraes (and, eventually, Haaland...) the only members so far that anybody owns! It was also shaping up to be yet another dismally low gameweek average, but a good haul from Haaland in the final game dragged it up to a respectable 57 points. Both of Chelsea's penalty awards were pretty soft, and the penalties for each side in the thrilling Newcastle v Brentford encounter both looked unjust, while Salah may have been a tad unlucky to miss out on being given one at Anfield. There were a couple of other potential penalties that should have been looked at by VAR, but seemed not to be. Although an uncommonly good weekend for the refereeing, there have been enough other odd events already this weekend to make it this time at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.
We all thought it might be such a thrilling battle for the Premier League crown this year!
Liverpool had finally broken City's long and rather tedious dominance of the top spot, and looked like they should have a good chance of defending the title in style. The young Chelsea squad seemed to have taken a massive step forward with their impressive triumph in the summer's Club World Cup tournament. City, of course, were not to be written off, despite a few teething troubles as Pep laboured to reconstruct their approach to the game. And Arsenal keep relentlessly getting harder and harder to beat each year. Perhaps even Manchester United, after their summer acquisition of a daunting new attacking trident of Cunha, Sesko, and Mbeumo, might be able to start challenging the top of the table again? And a few other teams had shown themselves capable enough last season to at least be able to nibble at the heels of these big boys, and perhaps nick a Champions League qualifying place off any of them who faltered from their highest standards - Bournemouth, Palace, Villa, Newcastle....
But it just hasn't panned out like that. Chelsea, unsettled by critical injuries (Colwill, perhaps, just as big a miss for them as Palmer), have been weirdly inconsistent, and have suffered a rancorous managerial departure in mid-season. Manchester United shackled themselves to the millstone of Amorim's perverse tactical rigidity for six months longer than they should have done, and are only just now starting to show what they should have been capable of all along. City, struggling with so many different issues of tactics and personnel, are once more very good - but not quite consistent enough, or robust enough in defence, to mount a powerful challenge. Liverpool miserably failed to integrate any of their expensive new signings, and are only slowly starting to find their feet again in mid-season. And the chasing pack have disappointed too: after promising starts, Bournemouth and Palace have slowly fallen apart, as their best players are progressively stripped from them; Newcastle continue to be plagued by injuries and inconsistency and weak away form; only Villa, recovering impressively from a dreadful start, had briefly threatened to break into the outer fringes of the title scrap - but they were probably punching above their weight somewhat during that extraordinarily successful run, and are likely to fall back quite a way, now that they've suddenly lost their entire central midfield - Tielemans, Kamara, and McGinn - to long-term injuries in January.
At the moment, Arsenal are looking set to win the title by default - not because they're incomparably brilliant (they are pretty damn good; but they have a lot of flaws too), but because none of their expected rivals have been able to step up to the challenge so far.
I - and most neutrals, I'm sure - would like to see a closer battle: one or more of the rivals pushing the presumptive Champions right up to the final weekend. But it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
Arsenal under Arteta have become notorious for suffering a 'winter wobble', a significant, sometimes calamitous dip in form at some point around the turn of the year. And they've just had another one this year. But we hardly noticed.
They lost each of their preferred starting defenders for a spell, and, on occasions, the back-up players in those positions too - so that, through December and January they were rarely able to field a settled back-line. For a team that depends so heavily on its defensive cohesion, this lack of continuity could have been disastrous; but it wasn't - they had a few struggles, but somehow they came through.
It's been in attack where they've often looked to have more serious shortcomings lately. And even their fans are starting to fret about their low number of chances created, the extreme shortage of goals from open play. But they've repeatedly found a way to power through: games they looked like they could lose, they somehow managed to win after all; games that they were losing, they somehow saved a point from. During what might, to their fans, and probably to Mikel Arteta, have seemed like a fairly terrible run of games over the past two months, they lost to Villa at the beginning of December and to a rejuvenated Manchester United in that great game the other week, and were held to draws by Liverpool and Forest.
That was this year's 'winter wobble': they dropped 10 points.
All of their rivals dropped as many or more.
I feel City's rather pitiful second-half collapse against Spurs last weekend may prove to have been the decisive moment of the season. Pep's men were so comfortably on top in the first half, they really should have been ahead by a landslide by the interval. But they somehow got pegged back to a draw - allowing Arsenal to stretch their lead to 7 points.
Now, 7 points isn't that much of a gap, with just over a third of the season still to be played.
But Arsenal are so good defensively this year, it's difficult to imagine where they might drop points. Most of their tougher opponents for the second half of the season are already behind them. Only a visit to The Etihad in mid-April looks likely to be a major test of their confidence. And even if they are feeling under a bit of pressure by then, or start to feel it because of a good result for City in that game, their run-in to the end of the season is one of the softest we've ever seen: they have a sequence of fixtures in May that they probably ought to be able to win with their youth team.
And City, Chelsea, Liverpool, alas, are just not looking strong enough to be able to mount a sustained challenge. At this point, if I were going to bet on anyone else to win the title other than Arsenal,.... it would be Manchester United! They're 12 points behind, which is a very big ask. But I have a feeling they might just about be capable of making up that ground now; the others, I'm afraid, don't look like they are.
But yes, it is silly to talk of the season being 'over' when there are still 14 games to play for everyone (that's why I used the inverted commas). Arsenal might get hit by multiple injuries to key players again (they're rather more vulnerable in other areas of the pitch than they are in defence: Rice and Zubimendi are pretty much irreplaceable). Nerves might get the better of them, if someone manages to close the gap going in to the last few gameweeks. The physical and psychological toll of going deep in three or four different competitions might gradually overwhelm them.
But it is going to take something pretty damn drastic for them to lose that lead now. And I doubt if it's going to happen.
But we'll see.....
Only the fairly uneventful League Cup Semi-Final Second Leg games have cluttered our midweek this time, so hopefully there should not have been too many more new injuries since the weekend. But doubtless there will have been some... And - oh damn! - that rescheduled Wolves v Arsenal game that's being brought forward from GW31 because Arsenal reached the League Cup Final.... is actually next week; (giving us an unwelcome early deadline for GW26): those two teams will play again on Tuesday evening, which might cause a bit of rotation uncertainty for Arsenal.
[Because I'm once again trying to do this roundup on Friday afternoon (my Friday afternoon; still early morning back in the UK), there is a chance that a lot of injury news won't have emerged yet. And we've got a Friday evening game deadline this week, ahead of the Leeds v Forest kick-off tonight. I'll try to add updates, if it transpires that there is more bad news in today's press conferences.]
I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!
[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year). Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage.
I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]
So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 25?
Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?
Mikel Merino, who had to come off with a knock to the foot in the Manchester United match in Gameweek 23, was discovered to have fractured a bone and needed surgery on it this week; he's now expected to be out for at least 10-12 weeks. He's never looked like a regular starter, and so shouldn't have been in any FPL squads, but it does mean that Arsenal's midfield cover will be a little thinner if they incur any further injuries in that area. Rather more devastating for FPL (although, owing to relatively muted returns so far this season, he was only in 12.5% of teams, a third or a quarter of what you'd usually expect), Bukayo Saka pulled out of last week's game after feeling a muscle problem during the warm-up; it's still unclear how serious that problem might be - which is a particular headache in FPL with Arsenal suddenly having a Double Gameweek next week, and Madueke having looked very impressive in deputising for Saka. If you have Saka, do you stick with him, hoping he might recover; or do you bring in Madueke as a third Arsenal pick now?? Martin Odegaard is also suffering with some kind of muscle issue; he was only used in the second-half last weekend, but felt some discomfort after the game, and was omitted in the League Cup tie against Chelsea on Tuesday as a result. (If this problem doesn't resolve quickly, Ebere Eze might suddenly become a tempting pick for the Double Gameweek...)
The recently impressive Yasin Ayari is going to be missing for Brighton this week, because of a minor shoulder injury.
Jamie Gittens, getting a rare start against West Ham last week, had to come off midway through the first-half with a hamstring problem - which now seems likely to sideline for him for 2-3 months. Estevao, who was absent last week because he'd had to fly back to Brazil owing to a family crisis, is apparently now back and could be available to play against Wolves. Pedro Neto also missed Tuesday's Cup game against Arsenal with a knock that leaves him still doubtful for the weekend. And Reece James is apparently struggling with a knock too.
Jean-Philippe Mateta was hoping to complete a deadline-day transfer to AC Milan, but failed his medical check owing to an ongoing knee niggle that's apparently been troubling him for some months. It has been reported that he might now undergo immediate surgery to try to fix the problem, so that he can pursue that move again in the summer.
Vitaly Mykolenko was absent last weekend because of a training knock.
Anton Stach is likely to be out this week and next because of a hip issue.
Rayan Cherki (knock) and Bernardo Silva (tight hamstring) were withdrawn early against Spurs last week, and missed the midweek Cup game against Newcastle - but might possibly be back in contention this weekend.
Lewis Miley has a knee problem, which kept him on the bench last weekend and out of the squad altogether in the League Cup on Wednesday. And Anthony Gordon had to retire early in Wednesday's cup tie with a tight hamstring.
Matz Sels came off at half-time last weekend with a groin injury. Since the impressive Stefan Ortega has just been transferred in from City, it seems likely he'll lose the start in the Forest goal even if he is fit again.
Djed Spence missed the City game last week with a calf-strain.
Ladislav Krejci was missing last weekend due to an illness, and no word yet on whether he's been able to rejoin training.
Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?
Kevin Schade is starting a three-match 'violent conduct' ban for his petulant poke of the foot into Matty Cash's midriff last week (one of those incidents that helps delineate the boundary of "Oh, come on - was that really violent???"). Jean-Clair Todibo is starting a three-match ban for throttling Joao Pedro at the end of last week's game, and seems set to have that extended to at least 5 games out. Amazingly, though, his teammates Adama Traore and Konstantinos Mavropanos, who were guilty of even more egregious offences in that messy affray, only received yellow cards from Anthony Taylor, and no retroactive disciplinary action against them seems to have been instituted.
Neco Williams has to miss a game for his goal-line 'Save of the Weekend' last week.
As I just mentioned above, Matz Sels (an injury doubt anyway, due to a groin strain which forced him to withdraw at half-time last week) seems very likely to lose his start at Forest to the newly-signed Stefan Ortega.
Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?
I am losing confidence in Newcastle, alas: they barely even have 11 first-team players they can start any more, and have been looking very, very flakey. If Bruno Guimaraes is still unable to start for them, they don't look like they can win against anyone; and they could take an abolute battering against an improving Brentford this week. Harvey Barnes is the only player there who's shown any really good form lately, anyway; and he can't be relied upon as an invariable starter. And I haven't had any confidence in Spurs for a long time now; but maybe, just maybe their second-half turnaround against City last week could prove to be the transitional moment of their season?? It's probably saved Thomas Frank's job for at least a couple more weeks; but I'm not at all optimistic about any general upswing in performance from them - they're still all avoid-like-the-plague picks for me.
Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?
Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz are looking very good at the moment; although I'd venture you probably only want to have one of them; and, for me, Ekitike's form looks the more robust (and there's less competition - virtually none at the moment! - for FPL selection among the forwards). Matheus Cunha is also looking very, very hot again - possibly now a better prospect even than Bruno Fernandes (impressively consistent this season, which he hasn't been, in FPL terms, for a good many years: his 'blanks' have been so few this year that you can safely treat him as a long-term hold) or Bryan Mbeumo (who looks the more natural, more regular goalscorer - but seems not to thrive when Cunha is on the pitch with him from the start).
I noted yesterday that a number of the midseason transfers might at least be worth keeping an eye on. Tammy Abraham at Villa and Jorgen Strand Larsen at Palace could have a valuable impact for those clubs; although they'll probably take a little time to settle in, and neither are bringing any strong recent form with them (and Abraham might not get many starts, if Ollie Watkins's thigh injury proves to be nothing serious). Angel Gomes at Wolves and Douglas Luiz returning to Villa are probably not going to be worth having in FPL themselves, but might be able to bolster their new clubs' midfields enough to slightly improve the points-potential of some of their teammates. Surely the two most intriguing prospects among the new arrivals, though, are Pascal Gross (who seems likely to get regular starts in an advanced central midfield role, where he could pick up quite a few attacking contributions - rather than as a holding player or as a makeshift right-back, as he so often was in the latter days of his previous spell at the club) and Stefan Ortega (so long as he immediately gets promoted to being Forest's first-choice keeper; I think he ought to be, but they've got two other strong options - and you never can tell about these things).
BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery!
None but ourselves can free our mind."
Today is 'Bob Marley Day' - his birthday providing a happy pretext for a worldwide party in celebration of the life and legacy of the great reggae musician.
In addition to being a hopeless Plastic Paddy, I am also somewhat of a Replicant Rasta (mainly as a result of a couple of very formative visits to Jamaica in my young adult life), and I generally like to make this date in the calendar one of my (increasingly rare) days of indulgence. For St Patrick's, we can go wild on the whiskey and the Guinness and the colcannon and then more whiskey; whereas on Marley Day, we look to rum and Red Stripe (or nearest available equivalent) and jerk chicken, and then maybe some medicinal herb*.... But on both days, of course, it's mainly about the music: Bob and Shane MacGowan have shaped my life... almost more than Lao Tzu and Epictetus.
[* Well, the esteemed Dr W.H. McIntosh assured me that it could cure my asthma.]
NO, probably not, really.
The only 'big name' signings, both wrapped up very early, were City's poaching of Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth and Marc Guehi from Palace.
Now, many naive FPL managers assume that a good player moving to a better club automatically means that he's going to become an even better prospect in FPL. Sadly, this is not always the case.
Our great dilemma now is whether these two players, who had looked like very strong picks so far with their original clubs, will continue to be worth their place in an FPL team. I'm very dubious about that. They might be OK, maybe even somewhat better than OK; but they almost certainly won't be quite as productive as they were in the first half of the season. At Palace, Guehi, as the main 'progresser' in a back-three, often enjoyed the licence to push far upfield, and sometimes even join in with the attack; and this was why he'd shown such a burgeoning propensity for picking up the occasional goal over the last year or so. With City, as part of a more conventional centre-back pair (and particularly in a team who are struggling to stay tight at the back, and struggling to maintain their title ambitions), he's probably going to be pretty locked down as the last line of defence, hence not getting many, or any, of those goalscoring opportunities any more. And I seriously doubt if City, the way they look at the moment, will keep as many clean sheets from here on as Palace did during the opening third of the season.
Likewise, Semenyo was starting to thrive on being the main man at Bournemouth: not just their most consistent and threatening creative player, but increasingly their primary source of goals too. (Last season, he'd blown a bit hot and cold, was too often ceding the limelight to Kluivert, Tavernier, Ouattara, Evanilson; at the beginning of the new term, he looked like he'd really taken a step forward to accepting the responsibility to lead the side's attacking efforts week-in, week-out.) Now, he's just a bit-part player in a team that has lots of other stars, and lots of other sources of goals. He has looked very good in his first few games for City, and is relishing having an immediate regular start. But this might be somewhat fortuitous, as his arrival coincided with an injury to Jeremy Doku. I fear it's highly likely that, when everyone's fit, Semenyo will find himself in a three-way rotation with Doku and Cherki for the two wide attacking positions (and, indeed, there's a chance that other players like Marmoush or Foden or Ait-Nouri may also occasionally claim one of those spots); he might get more than his share of those starts, and he might often produce some nice points when he does start - but you can't really be taking a chance on a player for FPL if he's not a guaranteed starter. Folks have been encouraged to think that Semenyo will be, by his bright start at the club; but it is unlikely to be so.
At the moment, these two players are maintaining a high FPL ownership largely by inertia: folks who'd owned them already at their former clubs are mostly hanging on to them, on a wait-and-see basis. Anyone who brought them into an FPL squad because of their transfers to City was making a very speculative play - and, I would venture, probably ultimately an unwise one.
Amongst the rest of the recent moves, it was the return of Pascal Gross to Brighton that most caught my eye. He's an outstanding all-round midfielder, good at anchoring the central areas, but also often dangerous in pushing forward to support the attack. I expect him to do pretty well on 'defensive points', and he might pick up a few goals too (as he did quite a lot towards the end of his previous spell at the club); he's a solid penalty-taker as well, although I doubt if he'll immediately resume that duty for them. We're a bit spoiled for choice at the moment for dependable midfield dynamos to inexpensively fill 5th - and maybe even 4th - midfield slots; but if he's still as good as he was 18 months ago, I think Gross could perhaps get himself into that conversation as well. [I suppose some would fancy that Douglas Luiz going back to Villa could have a similar impact. But I fear Luiz's original departure from the club was less amicable than Gross's, which might cause some ongoing problems in fitting back in. And, good as he is, I can't see him being able to plug all the gaps left by Kamara and Tielemans and McGinn.]
The only other new signing I fancy could have a significant impact in FPL is Stefan Ortega, who's just joined Nottingham Forest. He is an outstanding keeper, who really deserved more minutes at City. And with Forest's former preferred starters between the sticks, Matz Sels and John Victor, both currently suffering from injury problems, he will surely start immediately (although I don't think you buy someone of his quality to be a back-up option anyway - well, not unless you're Pep!). Forest have a very solid defensive unit, and are starting to toughen up again after a horrifically wobbly first half of the season; Dyche is a dour and pragmatic manager who emphasises the old-school virtues of discipline, tenacity, and workrate - so, I imagine Forest will usually be fairly robust at the back from here on. And, apart from facing Liverpool and City in quick succession around the end of this month, their run-in to the end of the season doesn't look too daunting. The problem, alas, is that Ortega - and his struggling, bottom-of-the-table side - are too 'unproven' to be appealing for the first-choice goalkeeper pick; and he's really just a bit too expensive for a back-up. He started the season at a whopping 5.0 million, which was really ridiculous for a second-string keeper, even at a top club; presumably the FPL Gnomes were anticipating that he was about to graduate to a regular start, amid the rumours of Ederson's possible imminent departure (but, of course, Pep then promptly brought in Trafford and Donnarumma, to dump poor Ortega even further down the pecking-order). His price has since fallen to 4.7 million; but you can still buy the recently impressive Kelleher and Verbruggen for less than that - so, I can't see him getting into many FPL teams. But anyone who does gamble on him,.... might get lucky.
And Oscar Bobb, of course, is hugely talented, and you fancy that he could start producing big points if he got a run of starts somewhere - could Fulham give him that chance? But he's had his injury problems, of course; and so often being left out in the cold by Pep, even when he's fit, has likely dented his confidence some. Also, it's not as if Fulham are short of creative options in the wide positions, with Wilson, Chukwueze, and the young Brazilian Kevin all looking outstanding recently. What the club really needed in this window was a young centre-forward to help Raul out (I wonder if they went in for Strand Larsen?), not yet another winger. But we shall see; if Marco Silva does entrust him with a regular start, maybe we might get some fireworks from him.
I'm also very pleased to see Angel Gomes joining Wolves on loan. His career seems to have lost steam over the last 18 months or so, as he's suffered with a series of injuries; and he now appears to have somehow fallen out of favour at Marseille. He is a fantastically smart and versatile midfielder, and was the absolute standout of Lee Carsley's brief but exciting stewardship of the England team two years ago; I really feel he ought to be able to get himself back into the selection conversation for our World Cup squad (although we'd probably need to see Anderson, Rice and Mainoo pick up injuries - heaven forbid! - for that to happen...). I imagine he's likely to be deployed more in a holding role, and thus is unlikely to produce all that many FPL points himself. But he's the kind of player who could catalyse a significant improvement in the team around him - and that might elevate one or two other Wolves players into FPL contention over the closing months of the season.
Facundo Buonanotte's loan move to Leeds is also intriguing. Unfortunately - though not at all surprisingly - he couldn't get many minutes at Chelsea in the first half of the season; but he is a fantastic creative talent, and made quite an impact with Leicester last season (and he's only just turned 21!). If he gets a regular start and finds a vein of form, he could possibly merit attention as an occasional 5th-seat pick. But I fear he might not get that many starts at Leeds either: he's more of a No. 10 than a wide attacker, and Leeds don't really play with one of those at the moment; and in the wider positions, he'll face competition from the likes of Stach, Ampadu, Aaronson, Gnonto, and James. So, I think he's one worth keeping on the radar, but not someone we should really be expecting anything of.
Jørgen Strand Larsen shifting to Palace and Tammy Abraham going to Villa might perhaps develop into possible 3rd-forward options. But neither have been in great form lately; and, if Ollie Watkins's sore hamstring isn't too much of an issue, Abraham is only likely to be getting minutes off the bench, I fancy.
I suppose Tyrique George's loan move to Everton, where he's presumably going to fill in for the injured Grealish on the left flank, could also be interesting; though I don't really fancy anyone at that club to become particularly prolific.
But overall, no - there have been no big splashes for FPL in what was, ultimately, a relatively quiet transfer window. [Check out the Fantasy Football Scout website's full rundown of the trades.]
Seeing so many FPL 'content creators' follow this pattern - maybe not producing a completely new team every week, but making multiple player suggestions every week.... as if anyone might be able to bring them all in - encourages many of the more naive and impulsive FPL managers to believe that they could and should do likewise, that multiple changes at any time are always acceptable and even necessary, a correct and proper way to play the game.
Of course, that is not a good way to play the game at all.
Transfers have an absolute points value. (FPL's own game designers, in setting the cost of an additional transfer, have rated it as 4 points. It might in practice be a little more or less, depending on the circumstances; but that's a good guideline figure. And that applies to 'Free Transfers' as well as to 'hits': if you're not making an immediate 4-point profit from a transfer,... you probably shouldn't be making it.)
Transfers can also have a more nebulous 'tactical value', encompassing all the more remote benefits of making one change rather than another, or making a change now rather than later. (The 'tactical value' of deferred transfers is now hugely enhanced - and complicated - by last year's rule innovation allowing us to 'roll over' Free Transfers until we have a maximum stock of 5 at our disposal, effectively giving us the possibility of a number of additional 'mini-Wildcards' each season.)
Hence, every time we make a transfer, we should not only be considering how much value we may get from it immediately in the current gameweek, but how much more value we might possibly get from it by waiting to use it until a later gameweek.
Unless we have a really pressing reason to make an immediate change to our lineup, it is, these days, usually better to roll a transfer than to use one.
No squad, no starting eleven is ever likely to be completely satisfactory. We'll almost always have some players we're developing doubts about, some we're trying to 'rest' through a short injury or dip in form, or a little run of tough fixtures, some players we don't have yet but are starting to covet... If we thought like The Scout,... yes, we'd make 4, 5, 6 changes almost every single week. But we CAN'T do that. This is not the game we play.
FPL gives us only limited transfers, and we must be very careful how we use them. We have to learn to accept our inevitable dissatisfactions with our squad, and - most of the time - make do with what we have. We should strive to make as few transfers as possible; not to make any at all unless we feel we really have to. (Which is not at all to say that we should be afraid of making transfers, or should try to avoid ever taking 'hits' - spending the additional points for extra ones. Sometimes we do have to. Just not nearly as often as most people in this game seem to think!)
"We come to love that which we experience every day. But we can grow to hate that which we love every day." GW This, alas, is ...
