Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 8

I'm continuing with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Palmer's late sending-off for a second yellow was actually a bit harsh: he stepped on Gallagher's ankle, but it looked like a light contact, and entirely accidental, as the Spurs man slid in to take the ball away from him. Overall, Chelsea can't complain too much, as Palmer clearly should have been sent off earlier, but.... yet another dodgy decision from referee Attwell, who's been starting to look one of the league's flakiest in recent games.

Red cards not awarded: Issa Diop was hugely lucky not to be sent off for cynically wiping out James McAtee when he was racing towards goal 25 yards out. Referee Thomas Bramall did not cover himself with glory on this one - at first unfathomably signalling 'no foul', and then, when directed to the pitchside monitor by VAR, declaring that McAtee had been 'playing away from the goal'. He was 8 or 9 yards outside the near-post and heading in a straight line towards the byline. Bramall seems to have just invented a 'rule' that DOGSO fouls can only be awarded between the lines of the six-yard box! There might have been a case that McAtee had lost control of the ball (although his heavy touch was prompted by his anticipation of the dangerous lunge from Diop, so - in commonsense terms - that doesn't feel like it should be a defence), or that the pace of Davis quickly catching up presented the opportunity of additional cover (though I don't think something as subjective as speculation on the possible impacts of players' relative abilities should be allowed to decide incidents like this) - but not that McAtee simply wasn't 'near enough' to the goal; at the instant of the collision, he was barely more than 20 yardss from the byline and 12 yards from the centre-line of the goalmouth - and there was no-one nearer to the keeper than him.

The hapless Marc Guehi had a bit of a lucky escape when his clumsy challenge brought Nico Jackson's break in behind to a halt near the end of the first-half. It was only a yard or so short of the edge of the box; and it only narrowly escaped being a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' red card because Ruben Dias was racing across to try to provide additional cover.

Matheus Fernandes should have received a straight red for his wild and late sliding challenge on Caicedo. And so should Palmer, his hotheaded retaliation a few seconds later, running into the Portuguese to barge him over as he was rising to his knees as clear a piece 'violent conduct' as you can see. Stuart Attwell did a terrible job in this game.

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: Josko Gvardiol bundled over Johan Manzambi in the penalty area in the first-half. He would claim that he was just legitimately stretching out his arm across the Swiss forward's chest and stepping slightly across him to block his run - but some people might have called it a body-check. It at least deserved a bit of rumination from VAR - which it didn't seem to get.

Brandon Thomas-Asante might have been a tad fortunate to get away with a clear tug on Calvin Bassey's shirt at a corner, but he was recovering from Bassey's having just wrestled him aside with a powerful tug on the arm - so, fair enough.

Tight/dubious offsides:  

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Villa had some right to feel aggrieved about Haaland's equaliser: the big Norwegian was leaning very heavily on Victor Lindelof, resting both arms on his shoulders to prevent him even attempting a jump. VAR didn't even seem to check that??

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Cherki starting over Foden was an unpleasant surprise to some, who'd been nurturing optimism about Foden getting back to a regular start after his impressive midweek display in the Champions League (albeit against a very weak opponent); they may have been partly consoled by his appearance in place of Cherki at half-time. Rico Lewis also came on then to replace Khusanov; neither change really seemed to be called for by performance or tactics, so perhaps they were pre-planned rotations to manage minutes - which would be even more worrying, for FPL purposes!

Mikel Arteta threw up a few unpleasant surprises, with Merino being given a rare start in midfield in preference to Guimaraes (or the now mysteriously forgotten Zubimendi), Lewis-Skelly starting at left-back rather than Calafiori, and Gyokeres replacing Havertz up-front. Jack Grealish was a late dropout with illness - allowing Tyrique George a - long overdue - return to the starting lineup.

Coventry's Bobby Thomas (still nearly 10%-owned in FPL, though probably rarely a starter for anyone) was withdrawn seconds shy of the hour mark.

The biggest FPL blow of the weekend (so far!) was the last-minute dropout of Joao Pedro (75% ownership!!) with a training injury. 19-year-old Guinean right-winger Geovany Quenda had to come in for him - starting off 'inverted' on the left flank, while Morgan Rogers tried to operate as a '9' or a 'false 9' - where he had absolutely zero impact. De Zerbi showed a ruthless streak, dropping the out-of-form Solanke for Mathys Tel - although the young Frenchman operated down the left, with Marmoush taking over as the central striker (Marmoush didn't impress much in that role either, and Solanke came on to replace him for the last 25 minutes). Then, James Maddison, who had been lively in the first period, pulled up only 5 minutes into the second-half.

Near misses: James Garner provided a fine outswinging cross late in the game which exposed Arsenal's defence, but Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall's glancing header flashed agonisingly just wide of the far post.

Fulham made a lively start away at Coventry, with Josh King smashing an effort against the angle of near-post and cross-bar, and then Iwobi's follow-up effort on the far side flying just over the bar. A little later, a flying header from Thomas-Asante at the edge of the six-yard box looped just over Leno's bar.

Big misses/big saves: Jair Cunha in the first-half at Ipswich and Murillo in the second both fired off powerful volleys from the edge of the box, which Christian Walton did well to parry away.

Illiman Ndiaye's crisp curler from the edge of the box had to be well palmed away by the impressive Suzuki. A little later, Cherki's low first-time shot from a Doku cut-back demanded an even sharper stop from the Japanese keeper. And then another curler from Ndiaye had him beaten, but glanced off the outside of the far post. Suzuki also made good saves from Khusanov's fizzing long-range shot along the ground in the first-half, and Gvardiol's fierce rising drive at the near-post in the second; he was also alert to block a point-blank prod from Gvardiol when the ball broke to him 8 yards out. And in the dying minutes a Haaland header looked as if it might be beating him but Maatsen was on station at the post to head clear.

Cole Palmer had a fierce curler early in the game that had to be well tipped away by Kinsky. A bit later he made a good low stop from Henderson's firm low drive from just outside the box (which saved his blushes, as he'd gifted Chelsea the opening by carelessly passing the ball directly to Pedro Neto 25 yards out). Kinsky made another good stop from a Neto drive early in the second-half.

Outstanding goals:  If there were an 'Assist of the Month' prize, Daniel Munoz would be a frontrunner for his superb cross to set up Neco Williams for the opener at Ipswich on Friday night.

Nico Jackson's stunning opener against City will probably be in the 'Goal of the Month' lineup.

Oscar Bobb produced an impish solo goal to break the deadlock at Coventry (but he really shouldn't have been able to take apart a defence that easily; Lampard's team still look woeful at the back).

Mathys Tel's late break down the left-wing, culminating in a shot from just outside the box, was eye-catching - but the effort probably should have been kept out by Penders.

Outstanding performances: Zion Suzuki and Nico Jackson will - deservedly - be among the most transferred-in players this week; both absolutely magnificent against City.

Big mistakes: Nikola Milenkovic's mishit back-pass gifted Enciso an equaliser that the home side hadn't really earned on the balance of play.

Marc Guehi's run of dodgy form continued as a clumsy miscontrol in the opening minutes gifted the ball to McGinn who instantly played in Jackson to claim the opener. Donnarumma had Jackson's second goal covered, but somehow let the shot squeeze under his body - not something a "world-class keeper" should do, and the pained expression in his eyes afterward showed that he recognised that.

A careless back-header from Ben White fell straight to Thierno Barry, but he couldn't respond quickly enough, and Raya rushed out to smother his weak prodded effort. Twenty minutes from the end, the normally emaculate Everton defence entirely failed to defend Ben White's cross from the right of the box - allowing Gabriel a free header at the far post to put the game out of reach (his first goal of the season; pretty nearly his first attempt).

Mike Penders produced what might be one of the most bizarre screw-ups of the entire season when his mistimed attempt to punch clear a corner cause the ball to bounced off the back of his hand and loop into his own goal - to gift Spurs a win they had come nowhere near deserving.

Bad luck/good luck: Arsenal finally got a goal from a melee set-piece (their first of this season!!). And it was against the usually defensively very sound Everton. And it was Everton who caused the 'melee', cramming far more defensive bodies in the six-yard-box than they really needed to and impeding their own keeper! And it fell to Ezri Konsa, of all people, to prod the ball in at the far post in the ensuing messy scramble: a first - and possibly last... - Arsenal goal for him, which is a huge windfall for the nearly 19% of FPL managers that own him. The miserable wet and windy conditions all across the UK bamboozled even the usually immaculate David Raya: he completely missed a near-post punch from a corner, and the ball fell through his legs, and for what seemed like several seconds every player in the six-yard box seemed to have lost track of where it was - until finally Gabriel was the first to react and kick it off the goal-line.

FPL weirdness: James McAtee apparently notched an astounding 22 'defensive contributions' in Friday night's match at Ipswich, making him one of only three players (all midfielders) to earn defensive points in that game. It was not apparent from the BBC highlights how he had managed this remarkable feat!

It is unfathomable that Antonin Kinsky ends up with more points than Zion Suzuki this week - purely because that dodgy goal from Haaland robbed the outstanding Villa keeper of his clean sheet!

Unexpected results: Forest were once again made to rue their lack of incisive finishing on Friday night at Ipswich: they had more than enough chances to win the game comfortably - racking up nearly 5x as much xG as their hosts, but being held to a 1-1 draw. Although Villa have become a bit of a bogey team for City in recent years, and have improved sharply in the last few games (after their dreadful start to the season), probably no-one would have expected them to be so comfortably superior in this match. Fulham, although slowly improving recently, were not widely expected to produce a dominating performance away at Coventry; even if the home side's defence is often dreadfully weak, they usually create a lot of attacking threat - but they just couldn't get in the game this time. Spurs had more of a chance than they might have expected against Chelsea (who always beat them at Stamford Bridge) with Joao Pedro's unexpected absence from the lineup facing them; but in a fairly drab game, it took a bizarre goalkeeping error from Penders to hand them a win they hadn't earned.

The 'Team of the Week'  is one the 'least unexpected' we've seen so far this season - at least, half-way through the weekend: although there probably won't be 3 Fulham players in it by the end of the gameweek; and Kinsky is a goalkeeper who's been popular in FPL because he's cheap, rather than because he's good. And while having 2 or 3 Arsenal defenders among the week's best performers was a commonplace last season, this year it's a bit of a turn-up! The global average thus far is only a fairly modest 27 points. After a run of moderately 'good' refereeing over the past few weeks, this one has been a return to some of the erratic officiating that ruined much of last season: Tony Harrington at Arsenal and Stuart Attwell at Chelsea had thoroughly awful games. The crappy weather has probably taken its toll as well, contributing to a number of the uncharacteristic errors and somewhat unexpected results we've seen. Thus, this week's shaping up to be at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dance of the Hours

Damn - it's that time of year, again.

The clocks in the UK go back again this weekend, ending the idyll of 'British Summer Time'. Over there, it suddenly starts getting dark really early. Over here (South-East Asia, my adopted home of the last several years), Premier League start-times are now 7 hours behind England rather than 6 hours - which puts all of the later kick-offs completely out of reach of a live watch. Bugger.

Just to make things even more discombulating for us poor folks on 'foreign soil',... the changeover happens in the early hours of Sunday morning back in the UK: so, today's games are at their 'normal' time, but... tomorrow's are an hour later. (All around my manor, there will be chaps turning up to sports bars at 8pm this Sunday and being bemused to find nothing happening.)

Winter - I do not like it, for so many, many reasons; but this is one of them.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW8 (26/27)

Not that many new injuries this week, thank heavens - but a couple of BIG ONES!!

I'll try to update this evening, if any further news of note emerges in Friday's press conferences.

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 8?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The big news of the week, of course, is that Bukayo Saka (17% owned) went down with a quad injury just 10 minutes into Wednesday's clash with Bayern Munich.

Johan Manzambi came off 20 minutes from the end against Newcastle last week after suffering a knock (although some reports later described his problem as a calf-strain), and he missed the midweek game against Viking; but Emery has since been making light of the issue, implying that he could be available again this weekend. Aaron Wan-Bissaka also had to come off against Newcastle with an apparent hamstring problem, which might keep him out for the next 3 or 4 weeks.

Emi Martinez had to come off last weekend after a heavy collision with Branthwaite, which would probably have kept him out for a week or two under concussion protocols; but apparently he's needed surgery on a fractured jaw, so could be missing for a month or so. Presumably the Belgian Mike Penders will deputise for him.

Jorgen Strand Larsen went off in yesterday's Europa League match against Besiktas with an Achilles problem. Luckily Jean-Philippe Mateta came back from injury at last with a goal against Besiktas on Thursday; hopefully his fitness will be good enough to survive two starts in succession. However, he was pulled off on the hour in the European game; and Nketiah is still doubtful after only just returning to training. Quinten Timber picked up a hamstring problem in training earlier in the week, leaving the team a bit thinly stretched at the back too.

Hull's French forward Robinio Vaz had to come off with an Achilles problem at the end of the Fulham game last Saturday, though apparently scans showed no serious damage, and he has returned to training late this week.

Jeremie Frimpong came on for the second-half against Brentford last week, but lasted barely 5 minutes before going down with what looked like a pretty serious hamstring issue. Victor Munoz also had to come off after taking a heavy knock, and was subsequently missing from the midweek Champions League game against Villareal. A third casualty in that game was Dominik Szoboszlai, troubled again by his sore hamstring; Iraola has been giving slightly mixed signals on that, suggesting that it is "not serious" but needs to be "dealt with patiently".

Leeds's usual front three are all apparently in doubt: Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Anton Stach have been suffering with knocks and Noah Okafor has a muscle issue.

The other major new absentee is Antoine Semenyo, (15% owned at the start of the week, but there's already been a big sell-off), who had to be withdrawn near the end of last week's Ipswich game, after coming on as a late substitute, with what appeared to be a thigh-strain - although subsequent reports have suggested it may be a problem with his knee. Maresca has said he expects him to be missing for about 2 months. Matheus Nunes, Nico O'Reilly, and Mateo Kovacic all missed Tuesday's game in Athens after apparently picking up problems in that Ipswich game.

Marcus Rashford missed the midweek debacle in Como with a hip issue.

Lukas Bergvall missed Monday's game against Coventry with a knee problem picked up the previous week, and Savio was a last-minute dropout with a muscle injury which is expected to sideline him for some weeks.

Do we have any players who are dropped, suspended, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Vitaly Janelt is banned this week after receiving 2 yellow cards against Liverpool, while teammate Yegor Yarmolyuk is starting a 3-match ban for committing a "headbutt motion" (rather than an actual headbutt) on Jeremy Jacquet.

Sunderland's Kevin Danso is also serving a 1-match ban for his clumsy 'denial of a goalscoring' opportunity offence early on against Bournemouth.

Ryan Sessegnon begins a 3-match ban for his sending-off for a high challenge on Vaz last week.

Rodrigo Bentancur is serving the second leg of his 3-match 'violent conduct' ban.

There may also be some doubt about Bruno Fernandes getting dropped after he caused a bit of a ruckus in his post-match interview in Como on Wednesday night. It seems to me as though his remarks were quite measured and reasonable, and inflammatory pundits in search of clickbait have been blowing it out of all proportion; but... it is probably inappropriate for the club captain to suggest that there may have been problems with the coach's tactical decisions, and if Carrick is feeling prickly, he might get sent to the 'naughty seat' for a match. I suspect, though, that he's too important to be dropped, and that he and his manager will probably just kiss-and-make-up behind closed doors. The bigger worry than possible 'disciplinary action' would be if he's got so disillusioned with the coaching staff and the team's performances that he's starting to feel demoralized and demotivated; that does seem a serious possibility. I said before the start of the season that Bruno couldn't possibly reproduce his massive returns of last year, and that, even if he could come somwhere close, that still wouldn't be enough to justify his ludicrously excessive price-tag this time. And since the one-off freak of that monster-haul against Ipswich in Gameweek 2, he's done absolutely nothing; it is remarkable - and inappropriate - that anyone at all still owns him.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Sunderland and Nottingham Forest are in a dangerous slump at the moment, and Fulham and Spurs, despite somewhat fortuitous wins last week, aren't yet showing any real signs of recovery. Crystal Palace are also in the mire, not helped by a spiralling injury crisis. I wouldn't be touching any of these bottom-end teams. Bournemouth and Coventry, though, are both much better than their current position suggests, posing a lot of attacking threat - even when their defences let them down; so I might consider one or two options from them; but not from the rest of the current bottom-of-the-table crowd.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Um, NO - it was a thoroughly drab set of games last week! The only new prospect that does intrigue me a bit is Jack Hinshelwood, back from injury at last: he scored in a 20-minute cameo off the bench last week - but, of course, it remains to be seen if he'll get a regular start again (with Gomez, Ayari, De Cuyper, and Rutter - and soon, perhaps, Mitoma and Minteh again too - all competing for spots in the creative trident behind the striker)

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (117)

"Time is static; it is only the mind that moves restlessly onward from one moment to another, like a river. Sometimes, we can clamber out of the flow, and rest a while on a rock, to enjoy the perfect stillness - while the torrent of the mind rushes on without us."

GW

This is what meditation is: trying to step out of the stream for a while. It is tremendously liberating.

The 'TEMPLATE' - who's in it, and who ought to be in it?

 

I dislike the notion of a 'template' in FPL. It is generally imagined to be a fairly rigid set, a small set - perhaps just 11 players - that everybody owns. In fact, of course, there are rarely more than 2 or 3 players with an ownership level above 50%. In times of 'most template', you typically find that most reasonably sensible managers have 5 or 6 players in common, occasionally even 7 or 8 - but rarely any more than that. 

And, crucially, though naive FPL managers easily convince themselves, from having noticed so many 'similar teams', that these are the same 6, 7, 8 players owned by everyone, this is almost never the case. What you see is that most good managers have 6, 7, 8 players from a common pool of perhaps 25-30 most outstanding picks at any given time.

This season may be a little unusual so far, in that we have had quite a few players who are really making a case to be considered 'essential' (most of the time, it's no more than 2 or 3, and occasionally ZERO...), and we've generally had 9 or 10 players with an ownership above 30% - which is very high (again, we don't often see quite that many players so widely owned).

So, there is a slightly narrower template than usual at the moment; but it's not a straitjacket - there is still a lot of scope for differentiation.

And the problem with the template - as I've pointed out before in relation to copying the teams of the league leaders - is that it's an aggregate of what's worked so far, not a shrewd prediction of what's going to work best from now on. Many of the most popular picks have exhausted their rich vein of form - and are waiting to be moved out of squads. And many.... were sentimental, over-optimistic, misguided selections in the first place.

So, what does 'THE TEMPLATE' look like at the moment? And what should it really look like??

David Raya and Konstantinos Tzolakis are leading the goalkeeper rankings at the moment, but only fairly narrowly; and they have both benefitted from a penalty save (which gives a rather over-generous 5 additional FPL points, and usually earns an extra bonus point or two as well!), which is a once-or-twice-a-season freak (and Raya's penalty was clearly wrongly awarded!), and should really be discounted from a fair comparative assessment. Hence, Bart Verbruggen is actually the best keeper at the moment. 

Raya might outscore Verbruggen over the season, if he can rack up a huge number of clean sheets again, as he did last year (although Arsenal are so far looking much less cohesive than they did last season, and don't seem likely to be such a dominant force); but because of the huge price differential, he really needs to score 30-35% more points than Verbruggen (and the other 4.5-million-pound keepers), and I am very confident that that is not going to happen. I've said a number of times over the past couple of seasons that Raya has become the classic instance of that most basic of FPL errors, imagining that the 'best player' in a given position must necessarily be the best FPL pick. In fact, that is such a dangerous - and widespread - naivety that I have identified it as one of the key markers of a bad FPL manager.

Though a case can of course be made for Tzolakis (though you fear that Hull's hot start may be losing momentum, and a promoted side - however robust and plucky - is always likely to take a bit of a pasting from the stronger clubs), and Kelleher and Suzuki are also looking promising, Jamie Trafford, a solid 4th in the goalkeeper rankings so far, has the advantage of playing behind a very capable Leeds defence, and enjoys an exceptionally kind rotation with Verbruggen (you don't have to play either of them against a 'top four' side until January!); in fact, an optimal rotation of that pair has so far yielded 48 points - comfortably more than Raya!! And yet.... Jamie Trafford is owned by less than 6% in FPL (people were perhaps put off by his slightly high 5.0-million price-tag, and by the fact that he hadn't played a full season in the EPL before; they should be reconsidering now).

But the goalkeeper category contains some other anomalies too. Pickford is close to 10%-owned, but hasn't really looked worth it so far (people are backing him because he's consistently been one of the best - if not the best - FPL keepers for the last few seasons; but this year there are clearly better options, and, for me, he is priced-out at 5.5-million; even if he does top the rankings again, it won't be by enough of a margin to justify paying all that extra money for him; at 5.0-million he'd be a very compelling contender, but at 5.5-million - no). Lammens and Donnarumma are also up close to 10%, presumably just because of club loyalty (it's ridiculous that they are more popular picks than the obviously superior Kelleher and Trafford). 

Dubravka and Kinsky are above 15%. Dubravka is obviously just a cost-cutting measure (he's probably the best 4.0-million-pound keeper, but isn't anywhere near to getting a start); and that sort of pick is a dangerous, usually self-harming false economy. Kinsky might have been picked initially just because he paired with Dubravka (if he gets injured or dropped, at least you have automatic back-up from his deputy at the club); and more recently, some potentially softer fixtures for Spurs have encouraged some people to gamble on more of their players. But it is a gamble that doesn't seem justified: Spurs are still not playing well, and Kinsky has been in conspicuously poor form so far. This pair are part of the 'template' pool - but they shouldn't be.

So, among the goalkeepers, Raya is a misguided 'template' inclusion; and Kinsky/Dubravka is looking like an epic foot-shooting. Meanwhile, Trafford is being foolishly overlooked. Happily, Verbruggen's worth has been fairly widely recognised.

In defence, Riccardo Calafiori and Maxim De Cuyper are justifiably part of the 'template', and pretty close to essential - thus far. Curiously, although the Belgian has the higher points total so far, he's still well behind Calafiori in ownership, at barely 40% compared to 54%. This can perhaps be explained by Arsenal's reputation, consolidated in their remarkable season last year, as a uniquely dominant defensive powerhouse; but so far this season, Brighton have looked at least as good, if not a little better. However, I still have the misgiving that Brighton have freakishly over-performed thus far (helped by the fact that they have mostly played very weak teams so far; and even two of the better teams they faced, Villa in GW1 and Arsenal in GW5, completely failed to show up in those games!), and with a potentially tough little run of fixtures from GW8 to GW11, I would expect returns for their players to tail off a bit. De Cuyper, in fact, has massively exceeded any reasonable expectation for his returns from this opening sequence of fixtures, and it actually wouldn't have been too unreasonable to hold off acquiring him - if you hadn't (as I'd recommended) included him in your initial squad.

There are, however, 3 other defenders with ownership currently above 20% who can also be considered 'template' - but with much less reason: Josko Gvardiol, Gabriel, and Lewis Hall. I might add Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa (both near 18%), and Virgil Van Dijk (above 15%) to that list too. Everton's relentless 'defcon' monster James Tarkowski, who's actually now the third highest-returning defender, having edged ahead of Calafiori this week, but still only the sixth most-owned (at 18.5%), is really the only one of this 'fringe group' of popular picks who properly ought to be considered a must-have 'template' pick at the moment.

Gabriel, as I explained at the start of the season, is just priced-out this year: he obviously wasn't going to repeat the huge returns he got last season, and even if he had, he wouldn't have had a clear enough advantage over his Arsenal teammates, let alone the whole of the rest of the defender category, to justify that ridiculous 8-million-pound asking-price. As with David Raya, even if he were the top points-producer in his position, he still wouldn't be a good FPL pick because of this extreme pricing. He'd really need to be the top defender by some distance to justify selection; and he's had a fairly ho-hum season so far, is barely scraping into the Top 10 defenders - miles behind De Cuyper, Tarkowski, and Calafiori.

Gvardiol has been buoyed by a run of assists; but we were just reminded this weekend that he's still not guaranteed an invariable start - possibly sharing minutes with Guehi in central defence and O'Reilly at left-back. There are similar misgivings about Guehi, who's returned fairly good points so far, but has actually looked in rather poor form in the last few games. These are players who've been widely bought because of their performances in the past, or because of the mystique of City; but City's defensive form early in the season just hasn't looked good enough to make them preferable picks over Arsenal or Brighton players.

Dangerous as Lewis Hall can be going forward, Newcastle's form is so flakey at the moment that he looks likely to concede far too many goals to be a reliable FPL defensive asset. Ezri Konsa was a big gamble that's kind of paying off (it wasn't at all clear when he arrived at his new club that he would get an immediate start, or an invariable one; and but for the fortuitously-timed injury to Christhian Mosquera, he might not have...). But I still don't think Arsenal are looking dominant enough yet this season to be doubled-up on their defence, and I don't like limiting my options to choose others of their players further forward (no-one else is really looking worth having at the moment; but that may change); and I'm not convinced Konsa is the best defensive option at 4.5-million (particularly given that he's almost certain to return to the bench once Saliba's fit again). And Van Dijk's selection by anyone was pure sentiment: he didn't have a great year last year (his good FPL returns were very anomalous, and more than a bit lucky, not at all an accurate reflection of his actual form), he's aging out and slowing down; and Liverpool were bound to face problems bouncing back from their fairly disastrous second year under Slot, and getting used to a very different new style of play under Iraola. Paying 6.5-million for any defender is tough to justify; paying it for one who can't even break into the Top 20 is absurd.

This year, Hull, Leeds, and Brighton have surprised everyone with how consistently impressive their defences have been. Hull's back-line were all priced at just 4.0-million (such a bargain, and they were so good in the opening games - it really was worth considering doubling-up on them!), Leeds's men all at 4.5, and Brighton's mostly at 4.5 or 5.0. Everton's defence also offer some very reasonably-priced alternatives/additions to Tarkowski. This is where the template breaks down: there's really not much to choose between most of these players, and so there's a broad spread of possible selections among them, and only Hull's Femi Ajayi has climbed above 10% ownership. (Strangely, Coventry's Bobby Thomas and Ipswich's Issa Diop were two of the most popular 4.0 defender picks at the start of the season, and although their teams rapidly proved to be extremely vulnerable defensively, many owners have stuck with them - presumably as rarely-used 5th-choice options - keeping their ownership level up close to 10%.)  These bargain options have looked so good so far that, really, everyone should have at least 2, perhaps even 3 of these cheaper players from Hull and Leeds - to free up more budget to spend in midfield. 

But because there's less consensus over these picks, the most popular 'template' picks are dominated instead by slightly eccentric 'fringe' options for the first 2 or 3 slots in defence. Nobody should have Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, Van Dijk; everybody should have Bogle (or Justin/Gudmundsson/Muharemovic) and Ajayi (or Mendy/Egan/Giles).

And Dunk, Kadioglu, and - most especially - Luka Vuskovic (currently the 2nd highest scoring defender!) are presumably being spurned only because there are so many other Brighton players vying for our attention at the moment (everybody wants Gross, everybody wants De Cuyper, an awful lot want Verbruggen, quite a few covet Kostoulas...).

Thus, in the defender category, I would say that Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, and - especially - Van Dijk are ridiculously over-owned; but Bogle, Vuskovic, and any of the Hull back-line are shamefully under-owned. Calafiori, De Cuyper, and Tarkowski deservedly enjoy 'template' standing.

In midfield, only Pascal Gross has clearly staked a claim to being considered 'essential'. He's started every game (which might have seemed doubtful before the start of the season, because of his age; that made me hold off trying him out initially), he's on most of the set-pieces, and he's on penalties again for them (again, surprisingly, given that they have so many other potential penalty-takers); he's been consistently excellent for Brighton so far - and is way out in front of the other midfielders after 7 games.

It is another odd little aberration that Morgan Rogers actually has a few percent higher ownership than Gross! Chelsea started so hot that a lot of people were tempted to go for a treble-up on Rogers, Palmer, and Joao Pedro. I counselled at the time that this was probably unwise, and also ventured that if only taking one of their midfielders, Cole Palmer should probably get the nod, because he has historically been much more consistent than Rogers, and has the theoretical advantage of taking the penalties. (He is also more central to their creative play, and so should be considerably more likely to earn assists. I think he's been very unlucky so far: he's set up great chances for Rogers, Joao Pedro, and Neto, which his teammates have spurned, had quite a few very near-misses of his own, and he hasn't yet had a single penalty - surely must be due one soon!) Pedro Neto probably shouldn't be overlooked either. The fact that Chelsea have 3 strong contenders to choose from in their midfield, and no obvious or overwhelming distinction between them... should mean that none of them are such massively popular picks that they muscle their way into the 'template'. Rogers doesn't clearly deserve to be in that position of eminence; and I suspect he won't remain there for long.

It's a similar story at City, where Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo (alas, now ruled out with a medium-term injury), Illiman Ndiaye, Phil Foden, and the just-back-from-injury Jeremy Doku 'split the vote' as to which of them you should choose (and cause some anxiety about limited minutes/unexpected rotations). Again, there's a great overlooked option here in Enzo Fernandez, who seems to be such a Maresca favourite that he will start almost every game, and might well produce just as many attacking contributions as his more eye-catching teammates. So far, only Cherki is up at the top of the most-owned board, with 37.5%; and that might soon start to collapse, after he was dropped from last Saturday's game. 

The more major oddity in the FPL midfield, though, is the continuing prominence of Bruno Fernandes - who, until this weekend, was still above 30% ownership. I said at the start of the season that, as with Gabriel, he couldn't possibly justify his 12-million-pound price-tag even if he were again the top returner in his position (which didn't seem likely). His insane initial ownership level of around 45% could only be explained by sentiment, since cold mathematical logic mandated his omission. And you suspect that his ownership now only remains so high, after weeks of producing nothing, because of a combination of stubborn optimism from those sentimentalists.... with maybe a substantial admixture of people who've just got disillusioned and already quit the game!!

Another Manchester United man whose ownership has held up rather stronger than deserved is Bryan Mbeumo, still a little above 20%; a goal this weekend has edged him back very slightly ahead of the pack, but he's really no better than Rogers, Palmer, Saka, Semenyo or any of the other City midfield options, or Hull's recently hot winger Mohammed Belloumi. He's constantly getting shunted to and fro between centre-forward (a position he doesn't really relish) and the wing, is missing loads of good chances, and just doesn't look very happy in his football at the moment. He's a player I like a lot, but he has performed well below expectations at United so far, and I don't yet see signs of that changing.

It's odd that Saka (17%) and Odegaard (nearly 19%) are still so popular; they did look very hot at the start of the season, but they and Arsenal seem to have gone off the boil in the last few games, and a major sell-off is getting under way. But given their obvious potential, and the positive signs we saw from them in some of the early games, it's not so unreasonable to keep the faith in them awhile. Declan Rice's 11.1% ownership rate is completely unfathomable! That must be just pure sentiment again, an undue reverence for what he produced last season (without giving thought to the fact that the majority of that output came from supplying the ammunition for the trademark melee set-pieces which produced so many of their goals last year, but were obviously not going to be nearly so much of a thing this time around). Dominik Szoboszlai (7th most owned with nearly 20%) is a player that I love; but, alas, while playing in a central pivot role, he's just not likely to produce enough points to make him an interesting acquisition in FPL. Likewise, I think Morgan Gibbs-White is a fantastic player (11.5% owned, and it was more until his recent injury), but... things just haven't really clicked for him or Forest yet; and even if they had, it's going to be very difficult for him to justify his 8-million tag this year.

Kevin Schade (though ruled out with a short-term injury at the moment), Brentford's free-scoring forward-classified-as-a-midfielder, really ought to be far more popular; his ownership peaked at around 17% - which, for the 4th best midfield points-producer at the time, is crazily low. Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier - the 3rd highest points-producer but the 15th most-owned! - is also shamefully under-represented in FPL selections. People are being very slow to cotton on to Villa's Johan Manzambi (although a slight worry about a calf-strain might be holding some folks back from buying him this week). Cody Gakpo was looking Liverpool's most dangerous attacking player, but suffered quite a sell-off after he suffered an ankle knock playing for Holland a couple of weeks back; his peak ownership was only around 12.5%, low for someone who'd been in such sharp form; and for a minor injury like that, people really could have hung on to him on the bench for a week or two.

Among the midfielders, then, I feel that Rogers, while a justifiable pick, is significantly over-owned, while Bruno Fernandes should not be in anyone's squad at his price-point, and Saka, Odegaard, Mbeumo, Szoboszlai, and Rice are probably way over-owned. 

Schade, Manzambi, Tavernier, and Gakpo, on the other hand, are disgracefully under-owned. But Gross and perhaps Cherki are the only players who've earned 'template' status so far.

Up front, things are rather more straightforward. Erling Haaland has enjoyed his traditional white-hot start to the season, and it has seemed pretty much impossible to do without him. Well, except that Joao Pedro and Alexander Isak have also looked in very good form - possibly even good enough to rival Haaland all season and sneak the Golden Boot out of his clutches, certainly good enough to present a reasonable cheaper alternative to him that would allow you to spread a lot of extra money around the squad. The reason why that probably hasn't been working out so far is that few of the high-priced players (Fernandes, Saka, Mbeumo...., Gabriel, Van Dijk....) have been producing much, while there have been some great contributions from a lot of much cheaper players; so, thus far, there's really been no budget pressure, no opportunity to improve returns by spending big in other areas of the pitch! 

Moreover, most no-Haaland teams I've seen seem to be taking either Joao Pedro or Isak; I think you really need to have both - none of the other forwards are close to their potential. People have been more sceptical about Isak because of Liverpool's unconvincing team form so far = but he is basically neck-and-neck with Joao Pedro. Some managers have gone for all three; but I think that's a rash use of budget - although it might become a viable option if we continue to get few big contributions from midfield. At the moment, though, Palmer, Rogers, Mbeumo, Cunha, Cherki (and Semenyo, though now injured; and Doku and Ndiaye), and Gross and Tavernier and Schade and Manzambi and Belloumi... are all threatening to outscore Isak, mostly for a lot less money.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been by far the most popular 3rd-forward pick early in the season, with an ownership of around 23.5%. However, Charalampos Kostoulas, Nico Jackson, and Evanilson have also recently been attracting some attention as possible alternatives.

So, in the forward-line, Haaland and Joao Pedro have been almost universally adopted as 'essential' in the early part of the season, with Calvert-Lewin being the most popular third-seat choice - but possibly about to be displaced by other claimants. Alexander Isak is so far extremely under-owned, a strong alternative to Joao Pedro (or Haaland?!).

The supposed 'TEMPLATE' is not just 10 or 15 players; it's currently a pool of at least 35 'most popular' players that the vast majority of selections are drawn from. And over a third of those most popular choices at the moment are very bad picks.

Dear FPL, please FIX this!

FPL's 'Player Info' pop-up - no longer available on the 'Transfers' page??!!

Every single bloody year. the FPL Gnomes seem to think up a new way to make their crappy bloody website (and presumably also the mobile app version of the game - although I never use that) even worse. Perhaps we should be grateful that (as far as I've yet noticed) they've only fucked up one new thing so far this year. But it is a pretty big thing.

You can no longer click on a player to cue their 'Full Profile' stats pop-up screen on the 'Transfers' page - which is the one page where you're invariably likely to want to use it. (You can, as in the screenshot here, still access the Profile information for players already in your squad; but not for those you might be considering transferring in!!)

At the beginning of last season, they suddenly decided to remove match scores from the listed data for the current season; again, pretty basic, very important, and an unfathomable omission. But at least they seemed to repent of that idiocy and restored that information somewhere around mid-season.

So, maybe if we all complain loudly enough, the Lords of FPL Towers might take note and do something about rectifying this latest aberration?? Fingers crossed!!!

Try to bother them at this address: fpl@ismgames.com

And then, if they do fix this latest self-created problem, maybe they might start thinking about finally revamping that whole 'Profile' pop-up idea from the ground up. It is absolutely bloody crazy to have it in a pop-screen at all, to cram the display into such a small sub-window, and to make the information only accessible via an array of super-fiddly slider bars.... (I have complained about this before.)

That time of year again - Monday Music Break No. 8

It is my birthday... imminently. As the accumulated number of years grows larger, I find it harder to rejoice in the nearer approach of oblivion. But I do my best.

This little bit of manic silliness usually helps. John Otway has been one of the great joys of my life. I discovered him during my student days, and have been to see him live probably three or four dozen times at least. He's now celebrated as something of a national treasure in England, although his acclaim has grown through 'cult status' rather than any mainstream success: he is the quintessential pub performer - having played thousands of small gigs in the upstairs rooms of music pubs all over the country across five decades. 

I gather he is still performing; though I would hope that, at his age (he just turned 74 at the start of this month), he has toned down his stage antics a little. His shows used to be extremely physical (one regular highlight being him building a teetering tower of plastic beer crates at the side of the stage, then climbing to the top and launching himself off it into a flying forward-roll across the floor of the stage), and I would fear for his health if he was still throwing his body around like that.

This is Birthday Boy, from Way & Bar, his early album in collaboration with long-time friend 'Wild' Willy Barrett (in theory, I still own a copy of this, the original 1980 vinyl release - though it has been lodged in a friend's attic for the past 20-odd years, so might have succumbed to the ravages of time by now). It is a good representation of the great man's work, capturing his punkish energy and irresistible good humour. Though in fact his original compositions are fairly few, and his live shows have always been dominated by his quirky repertoire of covers (he once did an entire album of Tom Jones songs): Bowie's Space Oddity rendered in a thick Yorkshire accent ("Ey-up, Planet Earth's blue, An' there's nowt ah can do...."), the American Civil War song Two Little Boys somehow rediscovering a poignancy that most recordings of it miss, and House of the Rising Sun devolving into a raucous call-and-response, as Otway repeatedly feigns forgetting the words, pausing mid-line for audience members to prompt the next lyric by shouting facetious questions ("My mother.... was a tailor...." "Oh, well, that's nice. But what did she ever do for you?"  "Well, she sewed my new blue jeans..." "And what about yer dad??").

Memories of Otway shows are one of my happy places. I need those this week.

Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 7

 

I'm continuing with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Ryan Sessegnon's late sending-off for his foul on Robinio Vaz was extremely harsh. The challenge did look a bit petulant, flicking out a leg in an attempt to trip the opponent; and his studs did briefly rake against his Achilles tendon; but the contact was absolutely minimal, there was no force or violence in it. Barely even a yellow-card offence, for me.

Red cards not awarded: Everton's Harrison's Armstrong was a little lucky to receive only a yellow card when he went flying in on Josh Acheampong early in the game. He got a little of the ball, but the challenge was two-footed, out-of-control, and he swept the opponent's legs with his trailing leg as he slid through - could have been a leg-breaker.

Sven Botman definitely should have been sent off for his wild scissor-challenge on Jackson. It is unbelievable that VAR didn't at least recommend that incident for a second look by Jarred Gillett.

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: 

Tight/dubious offsides:  

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Marmoush did put his hand in Van Ewijk's face as he held him off to take the shot that put Spurs back in the lead on Monday night. A tough call: it would have seemed a very soft offence to disallow a goal for - but we do very commonly see decisions like that given.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Isak and Szoboszlai were unexpectedly ready to return to action from the start at Brentford. Araujo was mysteriously replaced by Frimpong at half-time; but Frimpong himself went down with a muscle injury after only 5 minutes or so, and had to be replaced by Ngumoha.

Ryan Giles was surprisingly replaced by Brooke Norton-Cuffy in Hull's starting line-up.

We saw the return of 'Pep Roulette' big time at the Etihad on Saturday, with Maresca suddenly resting Gvardiol, Anderson, Fernandez, Cherki, and Semenyo - in favour of O'Reilly, Bouaddi, Kovacic, Foden, and Doku (it is nice to have such 'back-up' available!). Gvardiol did come on for O'Reilly - seconds after the hour mark.

Carrick dropped Matheus Cunha - regularly a liability in his defensive duties - for the Leeds game, and used a variant of the tactic he'd tried midweek against Atleti, deploying Tielemans as a nominal '10' to allow Fernandes more freedom to drift wide or deep looking for space.

Bruno Guimaraes and Ebere Eze were slightly unexpected starters for Arsenal (though injuries to Zubimendi and Tzolis move them up the pecking-order).

Near misses: Just before half-time, Caicedo thumped a tremendous volley against the angle of post and bar.

In the closing minutes, Barcola curled a good effort against the face of the bar.

Ndiaye smashed a close-range effort against the crossbar late in the game (having been set up by a Haaland header; the folks who triple-captained the big Viking were miffed that he missed out on an assist to accompany his brace... and even more miffed when he volleyed home a third goal moments later, only to see it ruled out for an offside by Enzo Fernandez). In the dying minutes, Ndiaye had a cross-shot from an acute angle tipped away by Walton, and just moments later was played in again by Haaland, but saw his shot flash inches wide of the post.

Emi Buendia smacked a firm shot against the face of the post, and the rebound nearly went in off Hornicek's back. 

Brighton could easily have claimed an even bigger win over dreadful Palace: Charalampos Kostoulas flashed a 20-yard shot inches wide of the post on the first break of the second-half.

The best chance of a drab game at Forest came when Murillo burst into the visitors' box late on and cracked a shot just beyond the far corner.

Big misses/big saves: Thierno Barry added to his catalogue of costly misses when Grealish's perfect chipped cross found him unmarked in the middle, 7 yards out - and he planted his header straight into Martinez's midriff. If Everton had taken the lead midway through the first half, a misfiring Chelsea might have found it difficult to come back. Late in the game, Chelsea enjoyed a three-on-two break and Palmer played in Joao Pedro - who shot straight at Pickford.

Barcola had an early one-on-one break after a mistake by Janelt, but chipped his effort wide of the post.

Josh King's firm cross-shot took a slight deflection off a defender's shin and needed a fine reaction save from Tzolakis with his leg. A few moments later, the Fulham youngster had an even better chance, but played in with an open goal he shot straight at the Greek keeper. Tzolakis almost had to make a sharp save from Iwobi.

A cracking 25-yard drive from Ruben Dias was well palmed away by Christian Walton early in the game at The Etihad.

In the second-half on Tyneside, Botman, who really shouldn't have been still on the pitch, smashed a ferocious shot goalwards - well saved by Suzuki. Late on, Hornicek made a sharp save from substitute Ross Barkley's low shot from just outside the box.

A fierce 20-yard drive from Kadioglu was tipped over by Benitez (Gross might have had another assist...). Mateta was presented with an open goal from 7 or 8 yards, but scooped his effort against the crossbar. Shortly afterwards, Lerma's far-post header from a Wharton corner grazed the outside of the upright - nothing was dropping for poor Palace on Sunday.

A sweet cross from Tielemans gave Mbeumo a free header from 10 yards out - but he put his effort miles off target; though he made amends a few moments later, sliding in to prod home another Tielemans ball from the edge of the six-yard box.

A good period of early pressure from Coventry culminated in a fierce shot from Sakamoto that was blocked by Van Hecke with his forehead. A good chance fell to Tonali 15 yards out, after some sloppy Coventry defending early in the second-half - but he blazed his effort miles over the bar.

Outstanding goals:  Diego Gomez claimed 'Goal of the Weekend' (and possibly of 'The Month'!) by driving the ball home from the half-way line after he spotted the hapless Walter Benitez off his line.

James Maddison's sweet strike from the edge of the box was probably the best goal of the gameweek - though very much against the run of play. Marmoush's wasn't bad either; although there was some doubt as to whether it should have stood.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: The thus-far nearly flawless Konstantinos Tzolakis really should not have let Iwobi's deflected shot squirm through his hands at the foot of his near-post.

Omar Alderete's careless back-pass played in Evanilson to claim a second goal early in the second-half; but for that, Sunderland had been looking like they could hang on to a narrow defeat, and perhaps even nick back a point.

Antonin Kinsky flapped lamely at Jack Rudoni's shot and actually helped it into the net. He's still looking a very unconvincing presence in the Spurs goal. Carl Rushworth probably should have kept out Ben Davies's injury-time third goal too: it came through players' legs and was slightly mishit, so a little difficult to judge - but well within his reach, and not powerfully struck.

Bad luck/good luck: 

FPL weirdness: Yet again I find myself ruing the fact that dummies get no recognition in the game. Palmer really deserved an 'assist' for Neto's first goal!

How did Alex Iwobi get the credit for Fulham's solitary goal?? His shot was clearly off-target, until it deflected off Lucas Herrington's midriff. Madueke's goal on Sunday might also have been questionable; but it was at least nearly on-target, rather than miles off, as Iwobi's had been.

And how the fuck did David Raya earn 3 bonus points?? He didn't even get any 'saves' points in that game! There is something very, very dodgy about this. (In fact, even more weirdly, Rice and Konsa were also given 3 bonus points for that game. That's probably the first time ever that 3 players have got identical BPS scores to share the maximum points.)

Unexpected results: Saturday's games all went much as expected; although Ipswich gave City a bit more of a fight than most anticipated; Chelsea, though miles off their best, were still able to overcome a similarly lacklustre Everton; and Fulham, though somewhat improved, were fortunate to meet an uncharacteristically flat Hull side, who produced their weakest performance of the season. Arsenal were pretty dreadful, but Forest without Gibbs-White are utterly toothless, and the visitors were eventually able to prevail - in the weekend's dullest game. Sunderland might have put up a better fight against Bournemouth if they hadn't been reduced to 10 by Danso's sending-off so early in the game. After recent struggles, Manchester United were perhaps grateful, relieved to get an away point at Leeds. Spurs's late third goal really flattered them; Coventry had looked well on top in the opening period; Maddison's opener came out of nothing, and Marmoush's second was mildly controversial - a draw really would have been a fairer result on the balance of play.

The 'Team of the Week', after Saturday's games, included absolutely no-one, apart from Haaland, who's very widely-owned (Isak was jettisoned by more than 500,000 more managers this week, bringing his ownership down below 12%; and probably not many of those started him, as he hadn't been expected to be ready for a return to a first-team start yet); and only David Raya was added on Sunday (though probably more people should own Manzambi and Neto; and perhaps also Kostoulas and Evanilson!). The global average crept up to a respectable but far from earth-shattering 56 points. Monday night's match didn't have much further impact on the overall points landscape, as very few Spurs or Coventry players have more than 1% ownership, and only Kinsky, van Hecke, Thomas and van Ewijk are above 5%. At least there have been no really outrageous refereeing cock-ups this week (although I think Botman and Armstrong should have been sent off, and Sessegnon shouldn't), so it's a very modest 2 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW7 (26/27)

There have been quite a few further injuries this week - although, thankfully, not many to 'major' FPL assets.

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 7?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Piero Hincapie and Martin Zubimendi apparently both picked up ankle problems just ahead of the midweek Champions League game against Lille (although neither of them seemed likely to get many Premier League minutes at the moment anyway).

Villa's new left-back Matteo Ruggeri had to come off against Brentford last week, and apparently has a moderately serious hamstring strain that could keep him out for a month or so. With Ian Maatsen still out with an ankle problem, Aaron Wan-Bissaka will presumably have to switch sides to cover for him. Ross Barkley, getting a rare start against Fenerbahce in midweek, had to come off with a knock, and looks likely to be sidelined for a week or so.

Jannik Schuster and Kevin Schade both had to come off against Villa last week, the former with an aggravation of a longstanding niggle in his ankle and the latter with a shoulder injury; both are doubtful starters for this week - Schade obviously the bigger problem for FPL, since he'd been the 9nth most popular midfielder with nearly 17% ownership.

Pascal Struijk managed to get his sending-off against Sunderland overturned, but pulled a hamstring in training this week.

Jarrad Branthwaite is struggling with a dead leg picked up against Hull last week.

Hull defender Nobel Mendy has picked up a groin strain and is set to be out for a couple of weeks.

Dominik Szoboszlai was a late drop-out from the City game last week with a sore hamstring.

Kobbie Mainoo missed the midweek game against Atleti after picking up a knock in training.

Igor Jesus has picked up a calf strain which is expected to keep him out for a few weeks; it will be interesting to see if Liam Delap can now make any impact with a regular guaranteed start. Morgan Gibbs-White is also a doubt this week after picking up a muscle strain against Palace last Sunday.

Wilson Isidor has picked up a knock during the week - although Brian Brobbey might be ready to return in his stead. Veteran Belgian full-back Thomas Meunier, outstanding against Brighton last week, had to come off in that game with a hamstring strain.

Enzo Maresca made an alarming comment this week about Erling Haaland needing a rest 'soon'. That might be just 'mind-games'; and you suspect that 'soon' might mean next week's Champions League clash against relatively un-scary AEK... But still, it's a worry - especially for all those (possibly some millions??) who'd been planning to use their Triple Captain chip on him this weekend.

Do we have any players who are dropped, suspended, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Rodrigo Bentancur is beginning a three-match ban for his 'headbutt' on Luke Shaw last week. Axel Disasi is serving the last part of his three-match ban this weekend. Ryan Gravenberch misses this week after receiving two yellow cards against City last Sunday.

Pascal Struijk managed to get last week's 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' red card overturned (the review panel accepting the argument that the through-ball to Isidor was running past him too fast for him to have retained possession - a little bit of a 50/50 proposition, for me) - but is now injured anyway.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I warned last week against the crazy enthusiasm for Fulham having supposedly 'easy' fixtures against the promoted clubs (who've all looked much better than Fulham so far this season!); and some FPL managers are already repenting after their defeat by Ipswich last week. 65,000 have baled on their toothless striker, Goncalo Garcia, while between 10,000 and 20,000 have jettisoned their next most popular picks, Josh King, Antonee Robinson, Timothy Castagne, and Bernd Leno (I would have thought it would have been more, far more).

Liverpool are still looking terribly flakey under Iraola (a comfortable Champions League win against LASK in midweek counts for nothing), and while Isak, Gakpo, Ekitike, and Szoboszlai are missing - I wouldn't go near any of the rest of them.

A lot of folks online are making a case for Spurs now, particularly Solanke and Savio - surely they're just having a laugh???

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Johan Manzambi had another good game for Villa last week, and Nico Jackson is starting to look like a strong contender for the 3rd forward spot. However, Coventry's Guinean youngster (he doesn't turn 20 for another couple of months!), Sidiki Cherif, was outstanding last week, and could be an interesting budget option up-front at just 5.0-million pounds. Of course, the surprise standout of last weekend was Jordan Henderson (most of us didn't even know he'd recovered from his broken wrist, and didn't think he'd be likely to get anywhere near a start anyway...); with Reece James now ruled out for at least 3 months after a knee surgery, and the perpetually injured Romeo Lavia seemingly not trusted, Henderson could in fact be in for an extended run in the side; and at only 4.9-million, he could tempt many as a 'budget-enabler' (although I always feel you shouldn't scrimp like that on your crucial 5th midfielder; it doesn't seem likely that he'll be producing goals every week... but who knows?). Around 60,000 have piled in for him already.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Another 'Triple Captain' temptation

 

This week's major talking-point in FPL-land seems to be whether to punt the first Triple Captain chip on Erling Haaland this weekend.

Well, I say 'talking-point'; but in fact, there's been next-to-zero actual discussion or rumination on the issue. Most people on the forums are just exultantly announcing that they're going to do it.

Of course, there's a strong case for it. Promoted sides are almost always among the League's most vulnerable, especially early in the season; and Ipswich have looked pretty porous at the back so far. And Haaland is obviously a prime candidate for the Triple Captain chip - one of the few players who reliably returns multiple double-digit hauls each season, and can usually be depended on to come up with at least something against weaker opponents.

But the case against: Ipswich have shown signs of improvement over the last few games (in particular, Christian Walton looks a lot more formidable in goal than the error-prone Kjell Scherpen, who he's replaced in the last two games - in which they've conceded only a single goal each time [although, admittedly, against rather poor opponents]); they also offer quite a lot of attacking threat through players like Enciso, Fatawu, and Davis (I'd still fancy City for the win; but it might not necessarily be all that comfortable for them...). Haaland might be a bit tired after the gruelling game against PSG in midweek; and you'd imagine he'll certainly be taken off quite early, if City can get the game safely in the bag. So, this fixture really doesn't look like an absolute gimme for a big haul, either for City or for Haaland.

But, as always, the major concern with a decision like this should be opportunity cost - are you missing out on stronger options for the chip later by committing to using it now?

Although Haaland is just about unique among our current crop of players in the number of big hauls he produces each season,... at the moment, Joao Pedro is also in extraordinary form for Chelsea (and is actually looking like he could wrest the Golden Boot from the Norwegian this season). And Chelsea under Xabi Alonso have looked so free-scoring so far that you fancy them to be able to net multiple times against just about anyone; whereas City, still getting used to Enzo Maresca, are often misfiring a bit in their attack.

Moreover, midfielders get more points than forwards for the same attacking contribution; and there are a fair few of them who - at least occasionally - also bag multiple goals in a game. Bruno Fernandes, of course, has already done so this season (in what might well prove to be the season's highest gameweek total), and Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka have proven that they are capable of it as well; we might now add Jeremy Doku, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, and Morgan Rogers to that list. So.... Haaland isn't the only candidate to use the chip on.

And Ipswich probably aren't the weakest opponent to target. Forest and Palace have so far looked at least as bad, if not a bit worse in the last few games; Spurs have looked much, much worse (though you feel they must have the potential for a massive improvement sooner or later); and Fulham have looked pretty dreadful too.

So, Haaland against Forest in GW10 or Fulham in GW11 (the other side of the second international break, alas; so, there are elevated doubts about form and fitness after that interruption) are credible alternatives to Ipswich this week.

And Joao Pedro (or Palmer or Rogers) against Spurs next week or against Palace at the start of December might be even more tempting.

Those who love the thrill of a wild gamble might even try their luck on Saka against Forest this weekend! [Ha! Well, I think Saka will produce a few big hauls at some point; but Arsenal are strangely flat at the moment; starting Rice and Guimaraes in central midfield always seems to leave them lacking bite.]

Haaland is a good solution, but not the only one. You shouldn't make a decision like this without carefully weighing all the possible alternatives first. (And most FPL managers just don't seem to do that!)  

[Of course, this ultimately worked out very well for those - over 664,000 (one might have expected it to be far more; a lot of people were probably dissuaded at the last moment by Maresca's remarks in midweek about Haaland 'needing a rest' soon...) - who did plump for the Triple Captaincy on Haaland this week. But there's still a chance some of those other options I mentioned might work out even better - so, the smugness of this week's TC brigade might be premature!]

A little bit of Zen (116)

 

"Let us know the happiness time brings, not count the years."

Decimus Magnus Ausonius