Early 26/27 predictions

I suppose it's time for me to again attempt some - rash, and undoubtedly wildly inaccurate - projections for where everyone's going to finish in the Premier League this year. The bold and the foolish, of course, dive in with a first set of prognostications before the season's even begun - but I won't expose myself to that kind of ridicule. I prefer an attempt at analysis, rather than mere hoping or guessing.

Analysis is difficult so early on, because we don't have an awful lot of information to go on: only four games in, and early-season form is notoriously erratic, unstable, ephemeral. And any form that might have appeared to be becoming fairly settled is likely to evaporate again over the huge international break which starts in a few days. 

And although we didn't have such a messy transfer window as last year (when several of the biggest signings weren't concluded until after the start of the season, and many players had 'gone on strike' to force moves, and arrived at their new clubs injured or woefully out of condition), we have had a very busy one, and integrating so many new arrivals at once - at individual clubs and across the league as a whole - can be very disruptive: it will take quite a while to see how many of the new boys become key elements of their squads, and how much that affects previous lineup selections, team tactics, and overall effectiveness. We haven't yet seen much of Barcola or Bouaddi or Guimaraes, and nothing at all of Manzambi or Caicedo or Baleba or Palestra - some of this year's biggest signings.

Moreover, although we have so far been extraordinarily blessed with the relatively low number of early injuries compared to recent years, there have still been a fair few: we're still without the likes of Mitoma, Minteh, and Hinshelwood, and Saliba, Kroupi, Mateta and Ismaila Sarr, Rodon, Bradley and Ekitike, Burn and Osula, Amad Diallo, Doku, and Maddison, Kulusevski, Odobert, Simons, Porro and Udogie - all of whom might have been of some FPL interest.

So, just a few weeks into the season, it's really all still a bit of a crap-shoot. We could just point to the current league ranking and say, 'Well, that's what the form indicates so far.' But of course, there wouldn't be much point to that. We have to try to extrapolate the underlying hints of the potential for sustained form over the season from this small sample of - mostly very inconsistent - results we've had so far. And we have to try to make allowance for the things that might have distorted some of those results: relative difficulty of fixtures (or the occasional 'freak result' in defiance of the expected fixture difficulty!), injury absences, slow adaptation to new tactical approaches (in addition to the record number of new signings this year, we've seen a very large number of managerial changes!), and unlucky sendings-off, bad refereeing decisions, etc.

So, here it is - my first fumbling attempt at a prediction of where everyone will finish in the Premier League this year. (As last year, I'll attempt follow-up revisions at around about the one-third and two-thirds points of the season as well.)  Unlike last year,... I'll throw in a few additional comments at the end about which players seem likely to have the biggest impacts this season, both real-world and in FPL.

As I said yesterday, Arsenal are the only one of the leading clubs who've started out in really commanding form, while their rivals are all stumbling around rather unconvincingly thus far - and so have to be the strong early favourites to retain the title. Manchester City are inevitably their biggest threat again. They would be for Haaland alone, but the additional attacking/creative threat posed by Doku, Cherki, Semenyo, Ndiaye, Foden, and Fernandez is also pretty terrifying. And I do believe Maresca is a very tactically canny coach who will usually be able to bring the best out of this extaordinary group of players. The big question-mark at the moment is their occasional flakiness in defence, and the less-than-confidence-inspiring form of Donnarumma in goal (his distribution has always been terrible, but even his shot-stopping and positioning have occasionally looked a bit questionable recently). Chelsea have started the season looking as if they might be even more dangerous than City in attack, but even flakier than them in defence (and Martinez really doesn't look to me like much of an upgrade on the unreliable Sanchez in goal). And they may not have the balance or depth in the squad to sustain a consistent challenge across the whole season - although the absence of any distracting European football should be a big help to them. Liverpool, so far, have been failing to adapt to Iraola's new requirements, and have looked as woefully inconsistent in defence as they were in their floundering season under Slot last year. But at least Isak is looking sharp again, and you feel they surely ought to have enough talent in the squad to finish securely in the Champions League places; though I do worry that Barcola could prove to be a colossal waste of money, that Van Dijk could be rapidly aging out, and that Wirtz is once again looking too physically puny to prosper in this league. Liverpool, then, are one of the biggest uncertainties of this season: they may have the class to finish a little better than this, maybe even to mount a challenge to Arsenal at the top; but, at the moment, predicting even a 4th place finish for them looks rather optimistic.

Although Bournemouth have been suffering thus far from an unfortunate propensity to drop points by leaking a late goal, I think they have shown some of the most impressive form we've seen from anyone this season. Evanilson and Rayan haven't found their scoring boots yet, but Tavernier and Scott have been in superb form, Kluivert finally looks as if he may be getting back to his best, and Kroupi could add further to their forward threat when he gets back from injury. My hunch is that they will ultimately prove to be stronger and more consistent opponents than our other two 'over-performing' mid-table favourites, Brentford and Brighton. Brentford, though, could run them very close: although Thiago hasn't hit scoring form yet, he's playing pretty well, and Schade is providing the goals instead; and Mamadou Sangaré, one of the most impressive of the league's new arrivals so far, is adding a steel to their midfield that they've lacked in the past.

Before the season, I'd fancied Manchester United to make a strong showing, and perhaps even emerge as - albeit distant and ultimately unsuccessful - challengers to Arsenal (they were, after all, the league's best team last year, after Carrick had taken over in January). However, they've had a really awful start to the new campaign, and are looking as if they might slip back to floundering in mid-table. A lack of stable selection in the back-four, a continuing failure of the front-three to gel, the continuing lack of trust in Sesko for a regular start at No. 9 (Cunha just does not like that role, and does not thrive in it), and the continuing absence of new midfield hard man Baleba have all been limiting their performances. As with Liverpool, this prediction for them is a bit of a 'compromise', and is likely to be way off - in either direction: they could do much better than this, if they manage to get their shit together; but they could also do much, much worse...

Newcastle have been worryingly inconsistent so far, but I like what Jaissle is doing with them, and I think they ultimately have a bit more quality, especially up front, than the rest of the upper mid-table contenders: Barnes, Wissa, and Elanga have the potential to become one of the most terrifying front-threes in the league. Leeds have started out the season very impresively, especially at the back (and I think Jamie Trafford might prove to be one of the most impactful signings of the season); but I have misgivings about how far you can rely on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to lead the line for you for a whole season (in good form at the moment: but in the past, he's shown himself to be both physically and psychologically brittle, picking up numerous injuries or just suddenly losing his confidence in front of goal). Hull I really, really like so far; and I don't think there's been any element of 'luck' about their impressive early run of results (if you're outperforming stats like your xGC, it's not luck - your defenders are making lots of great blocks, and your keeper's making lots of great saves). However, newcomers to the league usually get 'figured out' by their opponents, at least by the top clubs, sooner or later, or simply find it difficult to maintain the psychological intensity that's fired them up to make a strong start to the campaign. I'd like to see Hull sustain their early promise and challenge for the European places (I think they could well finish higher than these few teams I've placed narrowly above them); but 10th would be a hell of a result for a newly promoted side, so that's my fairly conservative early projection for them. Brighton, despite their strong start, just don't really impress me that much: I think they've been 'over-performing' so far, against mostly very weak opponents (Villa looked like relegation fodder in that opening game, and even Chelsea have an awful defence at the moment; they were lucky to come away with such a big win against Coventry, who actually created most of the game's best chances; and against Leeds, they were lucky to get a draw). They don't have a convincing No. 9 at the moment (unless Kostoulas, or the newly signed Promise David, can establish themselves as Premier League class; Giorginho Rutter is a 10, not a 9). And I worry that the need to rotate through their large squad (in order to keep up the resale value of fringe players) makes it difficult for them to establish consistency. (On the other hand, with Hinshelwood, Mitoma, and Minteh - three of their most dangerous players - still to return from injury, there is also a possibility that they could become even more of a handful later in the season...)

At the moment, Spurs look utterly abject. But they have somehow managed to grind out goalless draws in their last two games; and they do still have a very long injury-list of key players. So, the potential for massive improvement is clearly there; you'd think there's too much quality in that squad for them to remain in the relegation zone all season. But De Zerbi's tactical plan is just not working at the moment; in fact, it's failing so badly that he's managing to make top signings like Sandro Tonali and Matheus Fernandes look like terrible players. And already the Italian coach is looking exasperated, baffled, dispirited; I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him become one of the season's first managerial casualties. But just how early that might happen, and whether it would help or hinder Spurs's progress up the table is one of the great unknowns of the season. 12th might seem a rather optimistic finish for them at the moment (especially after they narrowly avoided relegation in the last two seasons); but if things start clicking for them, the quality in the squad is such that they ought to be capable of very much better than that - so, again, it's a bit of a compromise assessment, midway between the best and worst imaginable outcomes for them!

Sunderland haven't really strengthened their squad from last year, and will find the pressure of European football a drain on their stamina. They're still very robust defensively (and I think Roefs could again be a promising goalkeeper pick in FPL), but lack very much of an attacking threat. And for that difficult second season in the Premier League, finishing safely in lower mid-table would be a pretty satisfactory accomplishment. Forest are another enigma: they show a lot of promise under Glasner, and I have hopes for what Daniel Munoz might accomplish there as a wing-back; but it will take time for the new system to bed in, and at the moment Sels and his defenders are looking much less secure than they have in most of the past two seasons. Also, with Chris Wood evidently aging out, they don't have much up-front threat (though maybe Liam Delap will be the answer to that problem?); but this might mean that Gibbs-White and Ndoye have to step up as the primary goalscorers. Although Everton have started the season quite impressively, they have again conspicuously done nothing to strengthen themselves in the transfer window - while losing their best player, Illiman Ndiaye. Although Pickford and the very robust defence should be able to keep them out of relegation trouble, I can't see them having a consistent enough threat going forward to finish very much higher than that: while Thierno Barry has put away quite a few goals early in the season, he's also been profligate with some good chances; I just don't think his conversion rate is consistent enough to rely on him as a primary striker; and since they let Beto go to Fiorentina, they don't seem to have any back-up. 

Villa look to be in a world of trouble at the moment: they lost the core of the team over the summer, and haven't brought in that much in the way of convincing replacements: they'll really be needing an awful lot from Nico Jackson (and Manzambi and Madjo, when they get over their injuries). And even if those attacking talents can produce the goods for them, I worry they don't have the depth in the squad to endure the strain of a European campaign as well. Emery is a very shrewd manager; but this challenge may be beyond even him. And he is starting to look increasingly exasperated at this situation, as if he's reaching the end of his tether; I can envisage him resigning, or wilfully provoking his own dismissal with public complaints, before the mid-point of the season. With the quality they've shown over the last few years, you'd think they should be capable of at least reaching the top ten, and maybe even the top eight or the top six; but thus far, they've really looked like relegation candidates - and even placing them at 15th looks a bit hopeful.

Ipswich look shakey in defence, but might have enough attacking threat through the likes of Enciso, Fatawu, Maeda, Davis, and Flemming to haul themselves just clear of the relegation mire. I'm afraid Palace, after the progressive emasculation of their squad over the last few seasons, the loss of their inspirational manager, and now the early loss to injury of their two best goalscorers, are looking doomed to the drop - despite the talent of players like Wharton, Pino, and Richards. Fulham, too, despite having a lot of talent in their squad, just don't seem to be getting on with their new coach Arbeloa (another prime candidate for an early exit). And they don't have a convincing spearhead to their attack: neither Garcia nor Muniz look quite capable of taking on that mantle. 

Alas, poor Coventry! They do look like the one team you can safely bet on already to be back in the Championship next year. And I think most people had expected things to be very different: they won the title last season at a canter, and often played some thrilling attacking football that looked like it wouldn't be out of place in the top flight. But perhaps that led to some complacency: Hull and Ipswich not only spent big to radically rebuild their squads, they adapted their style of play to try to make themselves more resilient against better-class opposition; Coventry seemed to think they could essentially rely on more-of-the-same, and they have proved to be very, very wrong. Now, the loss of their star forward Haji Wright was a major blow; and he could give a big boost to their prospects if he can quickly return to his best (although he's expected to be out until at least late November; and by then it might already be too late). And to be fair, they have shown some signs of improvement, after two dreadful opening games: they nearly got something from their visit to The Etihad, and were really rather unlucky to end up on the end of such a drubbing from Brighton last weekend (their defence was abysmal, but their attack actually looked pretty dangerous). Another reason for many people's confidence in Coventry's prospects in the top division was the general affection and respect that Frank Lampard commands in the game: an intelligent man with extensive experience of the Premier League as both a player and manager, you'd think he ought to be capable of guiding a promoted club to a stable lower mid-table position in their opening season. But... at the moment, he's looking like he doesn't understand what's going wrong, doesn't know how to fix it: I fear he will soon be the overwhelming favourite for an early dismissal. But it's really too early to judge: for Coventry, and for most of the other teams, an awful lot could change between now and the end of the season - or even between now and the end of November (when I'll be checking in again to consider revising these assessments).

As for the players... 

Raya and the Arsenal defence are again looking likely to be the clean-sheet kings. But Raya and Gabriel are much too expensive this year for early season picks; and, as I said the other day, I don't see Konsa as (yet) being a secure enough starter to be worth taking just to save 1 million on the budget. Calafiori is so far the overwhelming best pick from the Arsenal defence; and until Timber comes back, I really don't think you need a second.  

For me, Trafford, Tzolakis, and Verbruggen are looking preferable picks between the sticks; Roefs hasn't shown much as yet, but I still have faith in his quality as a keeper, and in the doggedness of the defence in front of him. 

Gvardiol, Guehi, Tarkowski, and - slightly more surprisingly? - Kayode are looking much the strongest of the other defensive options; although we can all load up on Leeds and Hull defenders at the moment to save money (I plumped for Mendy and Bogle early on; one of my few decisions to really pay off so far!!). We haven't seen that much of him as yet, but Munoz was one of the best defensive picks of last year, and could be even more impactful this year, as Forest seem to be trying to play with more progressive - rather than primarily defensive - wing-backs. De Cuyper was probably only a good pick in the very short term (he might not keep that start on the wing for long; and Brighton had two soft fixtures in the opening four, but now face quite a long run of far tougher games). And the other defenders who've made an early splash with attacking contributions - Leif Davis, Tyrick Mitchell, Neco Williams, Timothy Castagne... and even Lewis Hall too - all seem likely to concede too many goals to be good FPL prospects this term.

Bruno Fernandes is again playing very well, and had that one monster game against Ipswich; but, for me, he's just too damned expensive this year (however good he is, he can't possibly be 1.5x as good as the next-best options!) - especially with United currently struggling for form. Saka and Palmer are showing signs of being very nearly back to their devastating best: but at the high price of 9.5 million, we can probably only afford one of them - and might consider trying to go without either. Odegaard, suddenly playing some of the best football of his life and looking like he could be a regular attacking threat in a dramatically rebranded Arsenal this year, is a very tempting alternative to Saka, as is the currently prolific Rogers to Palmer at Chelsea (although I observed yesterday that Rogers has in the past been prone to periods of quiet form, while Palmer, at his best, has been able to sustain high rates of return over very long periods - and is on penalties as well!). Gakpo has started very brightly, but is now injured. Mbeumo has returned decent points, but hasn't yet really lived up to his potential - as a primary goalscorer generously classified as a 'midfielder', playing for a team like United, that really ought to make him one of the hottest properties in FPL; but last season he did not fulfil that promise at all, and it's starting to look like he won't quite do so this year either. 

There's an enticing array of options in the middle and lower budget tiers this year. At Bournemouth, Tavernier has been in excellent form at the start of the season; and Kluivert is looking like he might be finally starting to get back to his best; but Rayan hasn't found his form yet (a big disappointment to me, as I'd gambled on him in my opening squad), and Scott, despite excellent form and good early points returns, isn't likely to be a regular producer of attacking returns. Cherki has looked very dangerous, but might not be secure in his minutes; I am still optimistic that Doku could prove to be the most reliable points-producer in the City midfield, but I start to lose faith a little as this 'minor' injury absence drags on and on; and Enzo Fernandez - looking likely to get regular starts (as he's evidently such a Maresca favourite) and play in quite an advanced role - is worth keeping an eye on too. Schade is in good goalscoring form at an irresistible price; and Gross, Stach, and Fulham's Josh King have also made great starts - representing outstanding value at the bottom end of the price spectrum (although I suspect Hinshelwood could displace all of them if he returns to a regular start). Manzambi is the newcomer to the league who I feel could have the biggest impact (although he might struggle at a Villa side who look in such poor shape at the moment); and his Swiss national teammate Okafor is a player that I fancy could well come into some hot goalscoring form at some point - my final two 'ones to watch' in midfield.

Up front, there's quite a conundrum as to how to juggle the selection. Haaland is again looking the likely front-runner and near-essential forward pick, but he is at a wince-making high price this year that is tempting many of the shrewder managers in the game to attempt to get by without him. Joao Pedro has started out super-hot, and looking as if he could perhaps sustain a challenge to Haaland for the Golden Boot. Isak, too, is finally starting to show signs of recovering his best form, after an entire season blighted by injuries; but the unconvincing form of Liverpool as a whole makes me slightly doubtful about getting him at this point - unless you're going without Haaland: he's clearly likely to be one of the three best forwards this year; but they're too expensive for you to splash the cash on getting all three of them. I'm sure Igor Thiago will come good at some point; and Havertz should really be getting some consideration, now that he's clearly displaced Gyokeres as Arteta's preferred central striker (still just shy of 8% ownership, presumably only because there are so many other Arsenal players people want!) - I fancy these will probably become the most popular 3rd forward picks sooner or later.

Among the cheaper forward options, Calvert-Lewin and Wissa are the early favourites (although I expressed some reservations above about whether we could rely on Dominic to remain fit and in-form for a long stretch); but I would fancy Will Osula even more, if he can soon return from injury (yet another one of my initial squad picks that quickly went wrong!!). And I can see McBurnie, Delap, Flemming or perhaps even Kostoulas (though I wouldn't count on him keeping the start for long) becoming popular options at the temptingly low 5.5-million price-point.

"It's Arsenal's to lose"....?

 

That's what everybody seems to be saying,... after Arsenal's relentless start to the new season: 4 straight - and relatively comfortable - wins, 8 goals scored, only 1 conceded.

A title defence - particularly after a first title victory following a long, long drought - is usually the 'difficult second album' of the football world, a very challenging thing to pull off successfully. And I confess I had been very sceptical about Arsenal's prospects over the summer. I wasn't impressed by their summer transfer business. I was dreading another season of the dour 'anti-football' which had won them their success last year. I fretted that Arteta's extreme conservatism would shackle them to a more-of-the-same approach - which, this time, at least some of their rivals would surely find a better counter to.

But in fact Mikel seems to have accepted that, against the increasingly effective deployment of 'hybrid marking'/low-block defensive schemes, it has become essential to look more to individual creativity to unlock openings in the final third. (There may be an element too of the referees' tightening up on wrestling in the box meaning that the set-piece route to goals that he relied upon so heavily last season is just not going to work nearly as well this year.)  Arsenal, much to almost everyone's surprise and delight (not least their own fans'!!), appear to be playing a much less cautious, more expansive style of football this year; goals from open play once more appear to be flowing in fairly freely for them. And, after a couple of seasons blighted by injuries - as well as by Arteta's over-anxious strictures about never giving the ball away - we've suddenly seen both Odegaard and Saka revitalised, playing some of the most thrilling and dangerous football of their careers.

So, yes, things are looking very promising for Arsenal at the moment.

And the odds on them claiming a second successive title are very much improved by how poorly their rivals have started the season. Chelsea are scoring for fun, but conceding very nearly as many through a porous defence; City are still struggling to adapt to the new Maresca regime; Liverpool have been even more inconsistent and disappointing; Manchester United are currently looking as though they might start floundering in mid-table again; while Villa, reeling from the loss of several of their best players, look as though they might plummet all the way to the relegation end of the table.

Some of these, at least, should rally sooner or later, and clearly have the player talent to cause Arsenal some problems. And one or two 'dark horses' could also emerge on the fringes of the top-of-the-table scrap: Bournemouth and Brighton have shown a lot of promise in the opening games.

But at the moment, yes, Arsenal are looking very, very good - head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field.

It's a long old season, and much could change. I wouldn't yet be placing a bet on Arsenal winning at a canter; they could yet suffer a collapse of some sort, at least for a portion of the season. And I would expect City and Chelsea, certainly, and maybe Liverpool, to be able to mount some sort of a challenge. But for now, Arsenal are very strong favourites.

[I'll try to put out an extensive discussion of where everyone's going to finish tomorrow.]

The Chelsea treble-up??

 

I am very wary about trebling up on one club at any time, for any reason - but especially early in the season (when we really don't know how anyone's form is settling down yet).

And I would almost always avoid even doubling up on one club in the same area of the pitch; trebling up in the same area always seems simply crazy to me.

At the back, where you're generally only starting three defenders anyway, if you take all, or almost all of that regular starting three from one club - you leave yourself screwed if that club has a fixture postponed for any reason (foul weather, food poisoning outbreak, faulty floodlights, bomb scare, or reaching the League Cup Final....), as well as whenever they're facing a really tough opponent where you can't fancy their chances of getting a clean sheet too highly,... and in those unfortunate occasional games where they somehow just don't 'show up', or suffer some bad breaks (an early penalty conceded or an early sending-off can scupper even the strongest team's chances in a match). It's tempting to go in heavy for the defence of an exceptional team like Arsenal who are keeping clean sheets every other week; but even Arsenal, in their extraordinary season last year, failed to keep clean sheets in half their games - while many other teams did. Last year, there was a case for taking 2 from the back at Arsenal (2 defenders, or a defender and Raya), especially in the latter part of the season when they rallied from a slight 'wobble' to grind out an extraordinary succession of back-to-back clean sheets. But going for 3 would not have brought any additional value; it would have limited your rotation options too much (as well as leaving you without any room to bring in any more advanced players from the club).

In attack, few teams ever manage to be sufficiently prolific, or to share their attacking contributions around evenly enough, to make it worth getting 3 players from them. There is essentially a finite pool of attacking points which is shared between the goalscoring midfielders and forwards; and if 1 or 2 of them have a really good week, usually none of the others will. 

Plus, of course, the same points apply as above for the defence: you're leaving yourself vulnerable to catastrophic disruption from (possibly unexpected) blank gameweeks, and you're denying yourself the opportunity to take a defender or keeper from that club.  So, it's generally not even worth thinking about to treble up on one club in attack.

However,.... might the current Chelsea case be an exception??

They are currently looking so prolific in attack that the pool of points they generate in most weeks could be very large. Thus far, these attacking points are being shared almost exclusively between Joao Pedro, Rogers, and Palmer; and they are being shared fairly evenly and consistently between the three of them (Joao Pedro: 3 goals, 3 assists; Morgan Rogers: 3 goals, 1 assist; Cole Palmer: 2 goals, 2 assists).

And at the moment, the Chelsea defence is dreadful, conceding almost as many goals as their rampant attack is scoring; so, no-one wants their keeper or any of their defenders.

So, my two usual key arguments against such a treble-up might not apply here. And the misgiving about the possible impact of 'off days' or Acts of God might be exaggerated: we do sometimes see teams going for long spells - occasionally, perhaps, even a whole season - without suffering any such misfortunes.

However, I think there's still a problem of opportunity cost in putting all your eggs in one basket like this. Sure, Joao Pedro is on fire at the moment, and is looking as if he might possibly be able to challenge Haaland for the Golden Boot. But Palmer and Rogers are not currently in the Top 5 midfielders; there are other choices, possibly better choices out there. And if Chelsea were to suffer a sudden downturn in form - or just hit a little cluster of tougher fixtures - it's more awkward to ditch 2 or 3 players in a hurry, rather than just a single one. This is why you avoid double-ups and treble-ups: it doesn't spread risk - it makes things unduly difficult for you when you want to pivot away from that club, short- or long-term. You're almost always much better off spreading your midfield and forward selections across as many different clubs as possible.

Moreover, these are expensive picks: Palmer, despite a season ruined by injuries last year, was the most expensive midfielder after Bruno Fernandes - at 9.5 million; Joao Pedro and Morgan Rogers were both 7.5 million, and are rapidly climbing towards 8.0 (and although that price-point isn't usually quite 'premium', this year, when there are fairly few players placed in the upper price-brackets, it feels like it: for that 17 million that Palmer and Rogers originally cost, you could afford, for example, Bruno Fernandes and Pascal Gross,.... or three high-performing 'budget' picks!!).

My feeling is that, however well Palmer and Rogers are currently doing, there are still other midfield options who are doing about as well or a little better; and the benefits of spreading risk outweigh a slight short-term deficit anyway (go for Mbeumo or Gakpo or Cherki or Gibbs-White or Odegaard or Tavernier or Hinshelwood or Gross, etc., etc. - they'll surely work out in the longer-term, even if they don't quite over a short run of games). Personally, I would probably only go for Palmer or Rogers if I didn't have Joao Pedro up front. Saka is looking at least as promising as Palmer at the top of the price spectrum; and there are several rival options at or below Rogers's price-point. And if you do believe that Chelsea's attack are going to continue to massively out-perform any other team's, against all opposition, and you want further representation from them in addition to JP, then.... pick one of them, don't plunge in for both.

So, yes, I see the temptation of the treble Chelsea attack. But I am not finding it hard to resist it.

To Konsa, or not to Konsa?

Ezri Konsa is seen by many as being an irresistibly affordable 'route into the Arsenal defence'. And I can see that temptation: while he has a start in the team, he does indeed represent a very attractive 'value'. But as soon as he loses that start, he becomes a huge waste of money. And I think most of his recent adopters have been rather blindly over-optimistic about his prospects of keeping his start for very long.

Indeed, there does seem to have been quite a divergence of opinion on Konsa in the FPL community over the past few weeks: while he has now seen over 1,000,000 transfers in during that period, he's also suffered around 530,000 transfers out - and his price did in fact briefly dip down to 4.4 million just after his move to Arsenal (either managers were shocked/disappointed when he didn't immediately start, or just recognised that his prospects of a regular start might now be much lower; Villa are a much weaker defensive team, but at least he would have been playing every single minute for them).

Those who rushed in for Konsa now feel vindicated because he's started the last two games. They mostly seem to have been convincing themselves that he was always bound to move into the Arsenal side almost immediately, and would remain a fixture until Saliba is fully fit again (which seems as though it might be at least a couple more months). But the only arguments they seemed to be able to adduce for this bold assumption were that he was an England player (well, yes; but he's only just started becoming a first-choice starter - and England have been conspicuously short of much established quality to draw upon in the centre-back position for a while now; so, that's really not a very powerful recommendation) and that Arsenal wouldn't have paid over 50 million quid for him just to be a bench player (although they have recently spent a ton of money on players like Gyokeres, Eze, and Guimaraes - who are obviously going to spend most of their time on the bench); both rather spurious justifications, relying on 'status' rather than merit.

The fact is, Konsa has only got the chance to be integrated into the starting lineup so quickly because Christhian Mosquera suffered a muscle injury. This problem appears to be fairly minor, and he might be available for selection again any day now; indeed, Arteta hinted that he might have been ready to participate against Sunderland at the weekend (although, in fact, he was not even on the bench). I like Konsa and rate him fairly highly; but I don't think he's clearly better than Mosquera, who has looked absolutely outstanding whenever he's been called upon to deputise for Saliba over the last 12 months. 

And even if Konsa did offer potential advantages over Mosquera in certain aspects of his game, a defence relies very heavily on its members developing a close rapport with the rest of the back-line and the keeper: a rapport that depends not only on an intimate understanding of teammates' strengths and weaknesses, their style of play and style of communication on the pitch, but on the underlying personal relationships too - a deep trust that grows out of genuine camaraderie and friendship; that level of understanding doesn't come about overnight. Moreover, Arteta is a notoriously detail-oriented coach, and you might expect that it may take some weeks - if not perhaps even a couple of months - before a new player could fully absorb all of his tactical precepts. For these reasons alone, I thought - and still think - it unlikely that Konsa would be preferred for an immediate starting spot in the Arsenal defence over more established players, unless an injury crisis creates an opening for him.

I would certainly prefer Mosquera to Konsa - at least for now - if only for his experience within Arteta's system and his familiarity with the rest of the defensive unit. But I'm not Mikel Arteta! Who knows the mind of Mikel Arteta?? Many Arsenal fans like to assume that they do; but they're deluding themselves.

There are other strong options - possibly/probably stronger than Konsa! - for the role of Saliba's stand-in as well. Timber's now recovered from injury, and has occasionally played in that second centre-back slot quite capably. I can see Arteta might be a bit concerned about his physical suitability for the role (he's only about 5'10" tall, so probably lacks the commanding aerial presence of most of his other centre-back options), but he could slot in at right-back or left-back, allowing White or Calafiori to partner Gabriel. Hincapie too could play in that position, or take over at left-back, again allowing White or Calafiori to move into the centre.

So, Konsa cannot as yet be regarded as a nailed starter, the obvious, usual first choice. And even if he does soon appear to have become such, with so many other strong candidates for a start in defence, it seems doubtful to me that he can ever be relied upon as an invariable starter.

And even if Konsa does get a regular run of starts, he's under a lot of pressure from the 'club quota' too. With so many Arsenal players clamouring for consideration in an FPL squad, is his cheapness really a decisive recommendation? Konsa doesn't seem likely to offer very much attacking threat, and with Arsenal dominating possession so easily against most teams, he might not produce that many 'defcon' points either (Gabriel is the only Arsenal defender who's regularly registering those so far). Calafiori is looking much the most appealing pick from the Arsenal defence, with a regular prospect of assists or goals as well as his share of the collective clean sheet bonuses. But White has also looked a very strong option; and Timber will probably become so as well, if he regains a regular start. Odegaard and Saka have started the season in blistering form; Rice is likely to again be a very dependable source of midfield points; the new winger Tzolis has shown a lot of promise; Kai Havertz is gaining attention as a potential 2nd/3rd forward pick; and David Raya is currently by far the most popular goalkeeper pick (with nearly 40% ownership; I don't agree with it myself - several of the 5.0 and 4.5-million-pound options are likely to at least do very nearly as well; but after his penalty save against Sunderland, he is for now at the top of the goalkeeper charts, so his owners aren't likely to reconsider their choice for a while). 

I think it's a bad idea to treble up on any team this early in the season. Apart from anything else, it's nice to be able to keep the fexibility to easily bring in a third player when form or fixtures strongly encourage it (will Havertz clearly establish himself as a leading forward option? will Tzolis hit a hot streak?). And you really don't ever want to be more than doubled-up from the same club in one area of the pitch. So, if you already have Calafiori and another Arsenal defender or David Raya, there simply isn't any room for Konsa. And if you pick Konsa over one of those other Arsenal options (perhaps one you already owned, and chose to let go) - are you sure that money you saved is going to buy you more points in another area of the pitch than it would have done by sticking with Calafiori (or White or Raya or Gabriel or whoever)??

Perhaps Konsa will keep his start over Mosquera and the rest. Perhaps he'll get a long run of games for the next two or three months. Perhaps he'll luck into one or two headed goals and get some strong 'defcon' returns. And perhaps he'll prove to be not only the cheapest Arsenal defender but one of their best points-returners too. But to me, none of those things seem terribly likely. This selection might work out,.... but it is a very big gamble. (Not the sure thing his adopters are trying to convince themselves it is!!)

The Great FPL Paradox: the 'best player' is not always the 'best pick'

 

This is perhaps the hardest idea for most Fantasy Football managers to wrap their heads around. 

It seems obvious, surely, that the best players are going to produce the most points; and the players who produce the most points are the ones you want - right??

Well, NO - not necessarily.

1)  The objectively 'best' all-around players may not always have their excellence fully reflected in their Fantasy points returns.

This has generally been particularly true of defenders and defensive midfielders; and that under-rewarding in the FPL points system has only been slightly ameliorated by the introduction of new points for 'defensive contributions' (the number of points available is quite small, the threshold for earning them is too high, and the tallying of the eligible contributions is too obscure and unreliable for them to have all that much impact, or to improve the overall 'fairness' of the scoring system in the game). But it's also true of more creative midfielders who may be great playmakers, but don't produce all that many attacking contributions (the only things that get any direct recognition in the game; pre-assists and pre-pre-assists are often far more skillful and more valuable than the final credited 'assist', but gain no merit). There are some very, very good players who just aren't really worth considering for an FPL squad. If you allow yourself to be swayed by your appreciation of football, by your recognition of a player's talents - rather than his points potential - you will make some misguided selections.

2)  The players who got the most FPL points last year will not necessarily produce the same returns this year.

Ah, people may object, but we're not interested in the unregarded midfield dynamos or tough-as-nails central defenders who hold their teams together without often earning many Fantasy points; we just look at last year's points tallies and pick the guys with the biggest numbers. But, unfortunately, that tends to be a flawed approach too. There can be all sorts of reasons - known (change of club, change of manager, change of tactics, change of surrounding personnel, improvements by key rivals, injury, aging...) or unknown (the 'headspace', form suddenly falls off a cliff for no obvious reason...) - why a player's performance in one season can be much better or worse than it was the season before. Last year's data is a very useful guideline - but it's not definitive or infallible.

3)  And this is the kicker: the players who will get the most points this year... are still not invariably the 'best picks' for the game.

Naive FPL managers often imagine that if they had a time-machine that would allow them to view the year-end player points totals at the start of the season, they could just pick that 'perfect squad' of all the highest points-scorers, and they'd win the global title. But they wouldn't; they probably wouldn't even come all that close. To attain the topmost reaches of the global rankings, you really have to milk more points from every slot in your starting eleven than almost any individual player will earn in the season.

Many of the highest points-scorers, alas, are very patchy, very streaky in their returns: they'll have a few spells of super-hot form but long runs of blanks in between. And it's simply not worth hanging on to those players for extended periods, hoping to catch one of their hot spells - when you could have tried out three or four other players in the meantime, none of whom would have done any worse during the blanking period, and at least one or two of whom (if you correctly recognised when they were coming into good form) could have done substantially better.

Season totals don't necessarily matter: you have to try to maximise your returns for each starting slot by frequently rotating through the players in the hottest form. A player who returns very high season totals and is very consistent in their returns across the season may be worth regarding as a long-term hold; but they are very, very rare (in fact, even Salah or Haaland in their best seasons were not usually worth hanging on to for the entire season).

Moreover, you have to make your picks in the context of the overall selection landscape: you have to weigh up each squad choice in terms of its likely differential advantage over an alternate selection - i.e., how much of a points-lift can you get from this player compared to the next best candidate in his position, or another candidate at a similar price-point across all the positions, or to the other players you might choose from his club?

David Raya is now pretty unarguably the best goalkeeper in the Premier League. But he isn't the best pick for FPL, because he probably won't do that much better than the next best, he's too expensive this year, and you can usually wring more points from a good rotation pair than a single goalkeeper pick (and there are other possible picks from Arsenal that will probably give you more of a points-advantage than him).

Similarly with Gabriel: he is an absolutely awesome defender, probably the best in the league. But for FPL... he's again too expensive this year, and not likely to outscore his cheaper Arsenal teammates this time (his attacking returns will probably be much lower this year; and Calafiori, in particular, offers much more attacking threat, and seems to have a more secure start this year; I'd bet that Timber will too, once he's fit again).

And so too with Bruno Fernandes: he's looking in fabulous form again, he is probably the best all-around midfielder in the league at the moment - and he might well again be the highest-scoring FPL midfielder for the season. But when he's priced at 12 million pounds, the 'opportunity cost' of all the other players you have to do without in order to afford him is probably too much.

The same argument can be made about Erling Haaland; but, although his price-tag is enormous, I feel that his unique differential advantage might yet justify it. He does seem likely to massively outscore any other forward, and if things really go well for him, he might be the one current player with the potential for a 300-point season. However, if it appears that Alex Isak or Joao Pedro could run him close for points returns in the forward category, then he too might become expendable.

NB: All of these players I just name-checked are likely to be the highest points-scorers in their position categories in FPL this year; that doesn't matter. What matters is their relative value to your squad in terms of their advantage over their next-best alternatives, and how much benefit you could reap from spending their fees across the rest of your squad instead.

FPL feels like a 'bad romance' - Monday Music Break No. 3

Postmodern Jukebox started off as a hobby project by American pianist Scott Bradlee around 15 years ago, where he'd occasionally assemble a few of his musician friends to showcase his penchant for crafting novel arrangements of recent pop hits in more retro styles like Motown or Big Band Jazz. But before long it would explode in popularity and grow steadily to become one of the biggest music channels on Youtube, with more than 6.5 million subscribers today. (He still runs his own much smaller, self-named channel, where he mostly posts solo piano performances.)  PMJ, indeed, is now a global brand, with many dozens of amazing vocalists and musicians acting as regular or occasional collaborators on the project, and multiple touring groups performing its most popular creations live all around the world. And new videos continue to drop around once a month. (They were more like twice a month in the early days, perhaps even weekly for a while; there are now just over 500 videos posted on the channel. I shall probably be returning to them often for inspiration in this new weekly series of mine of musical asides.)

I happened upon the PMJ phenomenon mid-way through its history, about 7 or 8 years ago; and I made it one of my 'Covid projects' to work my way through the channel's entire back-catalogue (which probably makes me one of a fairly small percentage of their millions of fans who've actually heard every single thing they've done). This is one of my absolute favourites, a reimagining of Lady Gaga's mega-hit Bad Romance as a 1920s jazz number, performed by the fabulous cabaret singer Ariana Savalas (daughter of the popular Greek-American actor, Telly, best known as the titular detective in the long-running 1970s cop show Kojak) - with one of the best whistling solos I have ever heard,.... and the additional bonus of some spirited tap-dance breaks from the effervescent Sarah Reich. Pure joy.

But damn, FPL is a classic bad romance, isn't it? We devote so much effort to it, we give it all of our attention, we want so desperately to gain its favour,.... for it to be nice to us. And again and again it spurns us, dismisses us, slights our efforts, makes us feel wretched and worthless. We come to hate the thing we love; and yet, somehow, we still love it.

Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 4

I'll try to continue with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: No possible argument with Axel Disasi's sending off: he went in with studs raised and caught Jack Clarke just below the knee.

It didn't make a lot of difference to the result, but Reinildo's second yellow card against Arsenal looked unjust.

Foden's early red card at Old Trafford was certainly 'harsh', but fairly inevitable: even though the contact was utterly trivial - a mere twitch of his upstretched legs towards Bruno's midriff - it did look petulant and retaliatory. However, Fernandes was also clearly at fault for having a niggly little kick at Foden's buttock as he lay on the ground immediately prior (and for play-acting so egregiously to try to get his opponent sent off for the offence), and might well have deserved a red card himself - if the rules were being applied absolutely strictly and absolutely consistently. Common sense would suggest that a yellow card for each player would have been a fairer response; but referees seem to have very little leeway to exercise 'common sense' any more. Ultimately, though, this sending-off was only consequential for the small percentage of FPL managers who rashly own Foden; United were miles off it, and were pretty comprehensively outplayed by City throughout the match - after the sending-off even more so than before it.

There was not too much doubt about Taiwo Awoniyi's offence, though: he did fairly clearly throw his shoulder or the back of his upper-arm into De Cuyper's face as the Brighton man rushed towards him - apparently retaliation for a small clash between the two a few moments earlier.

Red cards not awarded:  Jason McAtee was perhaps fortunate to get only a yellow for his wild challenge on Maatsen - not 'violent', perhaps, but rash and cynical, and it did injure the player. The Villa left-back was unable to continue, which left Villa with 10 men in the closing minutes, as Emery had used all his substitutes early.

Penalties awarded: The penalty award against Konsa looked harsh; behind-the-goal views showed that Ballard was grabbing his shirt rather than vice versa, and had probably dragged him off balance. You can see why the grappling may have looked different to the referee; but that was surely an instance where VAR should have intervened to question the initial decision. Arsenal's late penalty, though, looked even more dubious: there was a little bit of holding by Reinildo, but that was outside the area; his challenge on the edge of the box appeared to play the ball (so, his second yellow was also unjust; but VAR again remained silent).

Penalties not awarded:  Leeds had a big shout in the first couple of minutes at Elland Road on Monday night when a bouncing ball hit Newcastle's Matias Fernandez-Pardo on the arm. The ref and VAR swiftly dismissed the contact as 'accidental', but to most people it looked more 'avoidable'. That was probably a 50/50 call; definitely another dubious one, in a gameweek sadly full of dodgy officiating.

Tight/dubious offsides: Liam Delap appeared to have blasted home a second goal from Gibbs-White's cross - but someone (Gibbs-White, presumably) was flagged offside. That was an utterly baffling call; and the SAOT picture was not shared to explain it.

Timber headed home powerfully from Odegaard's curling free-kick. On TV, he didn't look offside (and we were never shown the SAOT graphic): the supposed margin can't have been more than an inch or two!

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: While Haaland's goal did feel 'just' on the balance of play (United were never really in the game, before or after their visitors were reduced to 10 men), it was a very, very odd decision. Apparently, Pro Ref ('Professional Game Referees', the newly rebranded version of the former PGMOL) has admitted a procedural lapse, in that the VAR team was mistaken not to recommend that referee Michael Oliver conduct a review of the 'subjective' offside issue as to whether Enzo Fernandez's attempted diving header was 'interfering with play'. This was a grave oversight; but it wouldn't necessarily mean that the decision itself was wrong (although it would be hard to argue that a player diving across the last defender and right in front of the goalkeeper is not distracting them from other threats beyond the far post...). However, I felt the bigger issue here was that Haaland himself had looked offside anyway - and not by a small margin, by a foot or two! And yet when the decisive SAOT graphic was finally revealed, it was another of these situations we've seen quite a lot of already this season where the pieture appeared significantly out-of-sync with what we'd seen with the naked eye, as if the freeze-frame had been taken at least a few tenths of a second later than the actual delivery of the ball by Gvardiol out on the left of the box: all the United defenders were about half a yard nearer to the goal-line than they had looked in real life. And even then, there was no visible margin: the tip of Patrick Dorgu's outstretched toe appeared to be exactly level with Haaland's leading shoulder, not ahead of it - not even by one millimetre!!  This decision felt very clearly WRONG: and it might be hugely consequential not just for this one game, but for the eventual title race.  It suggests to me that the SAOT system is fundamentally unreliable, and needs to be suspended until they've worked out how to improve its implementation. (I suspect the problems lie more with how officials are using and interpreting the technology's outputs than with the technology itself; and with the inappropriate finickiness of the Offside Law itself - it simply is not practicable, or desirable, to attempt to adjudicate offside situations down to a matter of inches, a margin decided toeneails, eyebrows, and shirt ruffles...)  It seems to have been argued subsequently that Haaland was in fact 'played onside' by a tiny deflection on the cross off Dorgu's boot. But that is even more baffling: a) it was not clear from TV pictures that there was any such deflection; and b) I thought the rule was now that deflections did not count, that only a controlled attempt to play the ball by a defender was considered a 'deliberate touch' for these purposes (that would seem fair and commonsensical, anyway; and it does seem to have been how these incidents have been interpreted for the last several years); and c) this was not explained as the rationale for the decision (the SAOT graphic appeared to be attempting to justify it on the basis that Haaland had in fact been in an 'onside' position 'behind' Dorgu, regardless of any touch on the ball by Dorgu).

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Keith Andrews surprisingly left out Michael Kayode in favour of Aaron Hickey (one wonders if there was some fitness issue behind that; although Kayode did come on for the last 20 minutes).

Jaydee Canvot has apparently had a falling-out with his manager, not even being included on the bench against Ipswich; new loanee Honest Ahanor was surprisingly given an immediate start. Walter Benitez started in goal because of a late injury for Dean Henderson.

Forest lost Nikola Milenkovic and Jair Cunha to late injuries in training, so had to use full-back Ola Aina on the right side of the back-three (a lucky reprieve for a player who'd looked certain to lose his place to new signing Daniel Munoz).

Iraola, worried about fatigue after the midweek Champions League game against Atleti, subbed off Munoz and Gravenberch just shy of the hour. (At least it was a relief to see Gakpo - who had been rumoured to be facing a possible long spell on the sidelines with a thigh-muscle injury - able to play a full half-hour and more.)

White and Lewis-Skelly were replaced at half-time by Timber and Guimaraes, after a sterile first-half in which Arsenal failed to make any impression against Sunderland.

Luke Shaw, troubled with a muscle problem all week, was unable to play on Sunday, and was replaced at left-back by Patrick Dorgu. Nico O'Reilly was sufficiently recovered from his back trouble to make an appearance from the bench, but as I'd mused the other day, does now seem to have been edged out of any chance of a regular start by Enzo Fernandez and Josko Gvardiol. Because of the challenge of having to play most of the game with 10 men, Maresca took a tactical decision to replace Cherki with Ndiaye at half-time (a cruel blow for the nearly 30% of managers who now own Cherki; I suffered a similar vexation a few years ago with Luis Diaz being withdrawn because of a sending-off for Van Dijk).

Near misses:  Late on at Bournemouth, substitute Ben Gannon-Doak's swift break down the left ended with him shooting powerfully from the edge of the box - but the effort deflected off a defender's shin and looped on to the post.

Shortly after his opening goal, Liam Delap met Munoz's cross at the near-post but powered his header into the side-netting.

Marcus Rashford curled a sweet 25-yard free-kick against the face of the near-post midway through the first-half, with Donnarumma struggling to get across. After the break, Kobbie Mainoo cracked an open-play effort from similar range against the same left-hand post - but those were United's only decent efforts in a fairly sterile game. In the second-half, Enzo Fernandez had a cracking curler from the same kind of distance brilliantly finger-tipped on to the post by Lammens.

Big misses/big saves: There was a bit of a comedy-of-errors early on at Villa Park, when Murillo deflected a shot towards goal off the back of his heel, it hit Sels rather than being saved by him, the ball immediately rebounded to Murillo whose hurried attempt to clear smashed against the inside of the post and fortuitously hit Sels again; but at least the subsequent follow-up attempt on goal was well blocked by the Forest keeper. Neco Williams was teed up for a great chance from just inside the box, but lashed his effort miles over the bar. Schlager's diving header was brilliantly saved at the foot of his post by Suzuki - but ultimately to no avail, as Forest found a winner shortly afterwards anyway.

Bournemouth's new centre-back Antonio Silva ghosted in behind to meet Tavernier's delicious delivery from a free-kick, but put his header wide of the post. Kelleher did well to parry Kluivert's powerful low shot, but the rebound fell straight to Rayan - who rushed his effort and skied it over the bar.

Reece James's 30-yard free-kick was probably curling just wide of the top corner, but Tzolakis came flying across his goal impressively to tip it away. Palmer played Rogers in for a golden opportunity to secure a 3-2 win, but he shot straight at the keeper. A rather shakey-looking Emi Martinez spilled a long-range effort from Slater in front of Oli McBurnie, but was able to save his blushes by blocking the close-range follow-up effort with a foot. Hull had an even better chance to nick a late victory when Giles's delicious curling cross was met at the far post by substitute Cho, but he side-footed tamely at the keeper.

Anan Khalaili spurned a late chance to claim a win for 10-man Palace when he blazed a volley over the bar after Scherpen had patted Hughes's teasing cross straight at him.

Victor Munoz had a dangerous looping header from a corner well tipped over by Leno - about the only good chance in a very drab game at Anfield. Towards the end of a drab game, Isak managed to connect with a Szoboszlai corner at the near-post, but glanced his header across the face of the goal and wide.

Bukayo Saka ghosted in behind in the opening minutes (onside by a whisker?) to meet Rice's teasing cross - but somehow failed to make a proper connection with the ball, allowing Roefs an easy claim. Shortly afterwards, Havertz unleashed a crisp volley on the swivel that Roefs had to tip over the bar. And then, of course, Raya pulled off a superb penalty save from Le Fée to keep Arsenal in the game (a huge FPL points lift for that - but it shouldn't have been a penalty!!). Shortly after Arsenal took the lead, Sunderland somehow failed to convert a series of chances in a penalty area scramble - Mukiele ultimately back-heeling towards goal, but the effort being well blocked by Konsa.

Bryan Mbeumo fluffed two good chances late in the game: stealing in between Gvardiol and Dias for a free header, but directing the effort clean across the face of goal; and then ghosting in clear behind in the middle of the box in the closing minutes, but firing straight at Donnarumma.

Although Coventry were utterly woeful defensively, they did create a lot of moments of danger, and 'Man of the Match' Bart Verbruggen ended up with a 'saved xG' of nearly 2, producing 3 particularly outstanding saves: the best an acrobatic full-length stop from Rudoni's volleyed cross-shot early in the game, although his tipping over Onyeka's fierce dipping volley was almost as good, and the late save at his near-post from Thomas-Assante excellent as well.

Outstanding goals: Liam Delap pinged one in from nearly 30 yards out. Villa's equaliser, a powerful header from their new Brazilian winger, Alysson, converting McGinn's cross, was also excellent.

Jorgen Strand Larsen's firm, low cross-shot into the far corner was the best of 5 good goals at Selhurst Park.

Bruno Guimaraes opened his account for Arsenal with a banger into the top corner from nearly 23 yards out.

As Coventry's composure and morale collapsed in the last quarter of the game, Brighton had a little bit of a mini 'Goal of the Month' competition all by themselves: Coventry were repeatedly guilty of not closing their opponents down, allowing them far too much time and space to contemplate shots from distance (and goalkeeper Rushworth may have been a little off for those two late goals as well, perhaps having his confidence eroded by the sudden landslide his team were facing); but it is odd that Brighton managed to conjure two such outstanding finishes in quick succession: Dunk's thumping 30-yard dipper right into the top-left corner is surely a front-runner for September's 'Goal of the Month', but Ayari's low drive from just outside the box a few minutes later was nearly as good.

Outstanding performances: Bart Verbruggen, rather surprisingly, in a game in which his team ran rampant in attack, had to produce one of the best goalkeeping performances of the season to keep Brighton ahead.

Big mistakes: Djorde Petrovic gave up 2 points by passing the ball straight to a lurking Kevin Schade late in the game; Schade finished very coolly, chipping into the open net - but it was a gift of a chance.

Ipswich keeper Kjell Scherpen passed the ball directly to Adam Wharton early on, but Wharton's first-time 'shot' passed it straight back to him!

Antonin Kinsky also produced a similar lapse, giving the ball away to Dewsbury-Hall waiting in the middle just outside the penalty area - but he made amends by managing to block the Everton midfielders effort with his legs.

Bad luck/good luck: Leif Davis nearly bagged a second goal for himself with a looping header in the final minute of regular time; the effort crashed back off the face of the crossbar allowing substitute Zian Flemming a tap-in, so Davis claimed a second assist instead.

Roefs very nearly saved Saka's penalty.

All of Leeds's 4 goals on Monday night were helped by deflections; Tanaka's opener was the most dramatic, with two huge diversions off defenders' legs leaving Hornicek with no chance on it; but Dom Calvert-Lewin's headed goal also looked to me as if it might have been quite generously awarded to him, as it might have come off the head of the teammate or the defender who were challenging for same ball. (Ah, I see that second Leeds goal was ultimately given to Bogle - fortuitous for him, unlucky for Calvert-Lewin owners!!)

FPL weirdness: Goalkeepers receive far too little credit under the BPS: Verbruggen was universally acclaimed as the 'Man of the Match' for his outstanding performance in the Brighton goal, but failed to get close to even 1 bonus point because his teammates scored so many goals up the other end.

Unexpected results:  Villa are usually tough to beat at home, but they have started the season poorly, and usually struggle with stamina after a European game; and Forest tend to get especially fired up for Midlands derbies - so, I was predicting a Forest win in this one; but many people were not. Most people seem to have been expecting a comfortable home win for Chelsea - but I'd actually predicted a tight game and a possible 2-2 draw. Palace were also probably expected to get a home win against struggling Ipswich; but Ipswich have looked much better than Coventry, while Palace have looked very shakey at the back - a draw might have been the most likely outcome, but I wouldn't really call the Ipswich win a 'surprise'. Although Iraola's Liverpool haven't yet looked all that convincing, they would have been expected to win fairly comfortably at home against a frail Fulham. And I wouldn't have predicted a floundering Spurs would have been able to keep a clean sheet - even at home, against a not particularly incisive Everton.

And surely very few people were expecting Sunderland to make Arsenal struggle so much; their xG was actually nearly as good as their visitors', and if Le Fée had converted their penalty, the result might have been different.

Brighton were fancied to get a win, perhaps quite a big win, against woeful Coventry; but the 5-0 thrashing was ultimately somewhat fortuitous, as the home side unravelled due to Awoniyi's silly sending-off offence early in the second-half, and a fairly soft penalty award fairly soon afterwards. Coventry actually created the better chances, and with only slightly better luck might have been able to stay on terms.

Almost all of Saturday's games contained significant elements of the unexpected, and the FPL 'Team of the Week' yet again includes a fair number of randoms; Raya, Schade, Gross and Joao Pedro are the only high-owned representatives in it. Despite expected big returns for Arsenal, Chelsea, and Brighton players, the global average was still only a relatively modest 42 points after Saturday, but eventually climbed to a fairly respectable 67 points. The thrashing of poor Coventry by Brighton - not fully 'expected' or deserved, I would say! - was particularly consequential for FPL, with 17%-owned Pascal Gross being credited with 2 assists as well as being gifted a fairly soft penalty to convert for a 17-point haul, while Maxim De Cuyper nabbed 1 assist and a clean sheet for 11 points; if you had one or both of these, you had a pretty good gameweek! If (like me...) you felt that Brighton's prospects against Coventry were not overwhelmingly strong enough to make up for their daunting run of fixtures from now until early December, then... you got slammed. 

With so many bizarre incidents and near-misses, several absolute bangers of goals, 2 goals ruled out for invisible 'offsides', 2 pretty terrible penalty awards on Saturday and another more tenuous missed one on Monday, and an arguably missed red card for McAtee, the controversial sending-off for Foden and the massive cock-up on the game-deciding offside call at Old Trafford, I'm afraid this is now a 9 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter', much the most eccentric gameweek of the season so far; and, sadly, 'back to normal' for chaotic refereeing, after an unusually good opening few weeks to the season.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW4 (26/27)

Remarkably, despite a heavy midweek schedule (Bournemouth, Palace, Sunderland, Hull, Newcastle, Chelsea and Leeds involved in League Cup ties; Arsenal, City, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Aston Villa in the Champions League), we seem to have suffered hardly any new injuries this week - so this can be a very short roundup! [I'll try to update later, if there's an expected flood of bad news at today's press conferences!]

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 4?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The most consequential injury of the week is a thigh strain for Cody Gakpo, which kept him out of Wednesday's Champions League win over Atleti. Iraola hasn't been drawn yet on how serious it is, and the FPL injury flag so far rates him as having a '75% chance' of turning out against Fulham this weekend; but the rumours suggest he could be sidelined for at least 3-4 weeks. After his excellent start to the season (3 assists and a goal in the opening 3 games), over 600,000 people had transferred him in this week; since news of the injury broke, nearly 300,000 have transferred him out! Gakpo's absence facilitated an immediate start for Bradley Barcola on the left wing on Wednesday night (but he didn't exactly cover himself in glory - fluffing an excellent one-on-one chance; as, unfortunately, is his wont).

Ben White was limping at the end of Wednesday's Napoli game, but Arteta has claimed he has no ongoing problem. If he were unable to start against Sunderland, Hincapie might come into the centre allowing Konsa to move out to the right; or - preferable, I would think - Hincapie might play at left-back with Calafiori switching to the right. With Saliba still a long way off returning, Timber only just back in training, and Mosquera still limping with a muscle problem, Arsenal are stretched a bit thin at the back.

Matty Cash missed Villa's trip to Bruges on Tuesday with 'muscle soreness': doesn't sound too bad, but he's a slight doubt for this weekend.

Nathan Collins had to come off against Sunderland last week with a calf problem, and is expected to be out for a month. The young Austrian, Jannik Schuster, newly signed from RB Salzburg, is his likely replacement.

Nico O'Reilly was a late withdrawal from last week's game against Coventry (handing an 'unexpected' immediate start to Enzo Fernandez), complaining of a back problem in the warm-up. Maresca seems hopeful he could be available again this weekend; but a regular start for him must now be in doubt anyway, with the arrival of Fernandez and Bouaddi in central midfield, and Gvardiol looking likely to again become the favoured left-back.

Luke Shaw was rested in the Champions League in midweek, apparently suffering from a muscle problem of some sort.

Newcastle's impressive Bosnian right-back Amar Dedic felt a hamstring problem in Tuesday's League Cup tie against Milwall and was withdrawn at half-time. He was another player riding a wave of FPL popularity, with over 425,000 transfers in this week - but has now quickly seen 125,000 transfers out. With Tino Livramento only just back in training after a long lay-off, it seems likely Lewis Miley would have to fill in for Dedic if he's unable to start.

It's just been revealed that Sunderland's Romaine Mundle has recently had to undergo knee surgery, and will be out for some months.

Mykhailo Mudryk has picked up an ankle injury - but only around 7,000 people own him anyway (I'm surprised it's that many!!).

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Villa's Joao Gomes is completing his three-match ban this week, and will be available again next weekend.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

There were signs of improvement from Coventry, Spurs, and Villa last week - but I still wouldn't consider going near any of them for FPL picks (with one possible exception: see below). I can't think of any individual players who were worryingly awful last week - but, as I just mentioned above, Nico O'Reilly seems likely to be squeezed out of a regular start at City now by a combination of Gvardiol, Fernandez, and Bouaddi; Phil Foden might be under similar rotation - or exclusion - pressure because of the form of Cherki, Ndiaye, and Semenyo.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

There's been a bit of a reaction against Newcastle players in FPL this week, after their disappointing home performance against Bournemouth; but I think Anthony Elanga, Yoane Wissa, and Harvey Barnes are still looking very promising attacking options (pick one, not all three).

Alexander Isak was starting to look back to his best with two slick finishes last week - but both were set up by Cody Gakpo, who's now injured, so there might still be some doubts about how consistent his returns will be in this rebuilding Liverpool side.

Although Villa are still struggling a little bit, their new Japanese keeper Zion Suzuki has looked extremely impressive.

Despite the almost inevitable loss to Arsenal last week, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, and Joao Pedro continue to look like consistent attacking threats (and again in Wednesday's League Cup thrashing of Leeds); but I'd go for just one, or at most two of these; many folks are rashly rushing in for all three!

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

A little bit of Zen (111)

 

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Dear Douglas was one of the only people I've had a huge fanboy crush on (when I was a boy....), having grown up loving the original radio version of The Hitch-Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy. I was lucky enough to meet him a couple of times when I was a college student. An incredibly wise and funny man - gone far too soon.