A little bit of Zen (82)

 

"There are many ways of going forward, but only one way of standing still."

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Ha-haa!

Arsenal get an 'early' double gameweek, against middling and weak opponents,... and get held to a draw by both,.... pissing away a two-goal lead against bottom-of-the-table Wolves!

The vaunted Arsenal defence returned very little in FPL from the double-fixture; the much transferred-in Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyokeres returned bugger-all.

Oh, schadenfreude, we do love you.

Is it SLOP??

 

I came upon this video the other day, and found it quite interesting. It reminded me of a post I wrote on here nearly a year ago in response to this video on The Athletic's Tifo sub-channel, discussing why football is such an exceptionally complex game (almost uniquely so), and why this imposes severe limits on the extent to which data analysis can be helpful in 'understanding' it. This new video is a far more superficial discussion of the topic than the earlier Tifo one, focusing mainly on why football ('soccer') is so much more 'unpredictable' than the major American team sports. Unsurprisingly, it's because it's a low-scoring game (so, a single error leading to a goal can more often have a decisive impact on the final result), and because a draw being included among the possible game outcomes heavily impacts both the game's tactics and the predictability of results. The one major piece of data analysis in the video suggests that from 2005-2025 barely half of Premier League games were actually won by the 'favourite' (although that begs the question of how the 'favourite' is assessed; many fixtures are so tight that there is no clear favourite - certainly not when other factors like recent form and home advantage are taken into consideration; it also omits to consider how many of the 'upset' results were only draws rather than losses, which obstructs direct comparability with the American team sports).

While I quite liked this video, I do feel slightly hesitant about sharing it. Youtube is awash with AI SLOP these days, and I'm not completely confident that this isn't another example. It does seem to be free of any of the usual tell-tales - the heavy-handed rhetorical antitheses, the frequent repetition of content, or occasional obvious glitches in the voiceover (AI-generated narration tends to have the odd clunking mispronunciation or bizarre bit of phrasing or intonation now and then, or sometimes just an obvious break in the continuity mid-line - which completely gives it away). And the content appears to be all accurate and true (I haven't checked that central statistical claim, though....). But it is a bit glib and shallow. And they are churning out an awful lot of content in a very short time: over two dozen videos in barely two months since the channel launched. Alas, I think I smell a rat. But I'll probably check out a few more of their videos to try to find some persuasive evidence for my hunch on this.

Happy East Asian New Year!!

 

Today is New Year's Eve for many people in my part of the world (so, neighbourhood karaoke parties and midnight fireworks will make an early night impossible....). It's commonly thought of as the Chinese New Year, but in fact the Vietnamese Tet and Korean Seollal holidays also celebrate this 'lunar new year', and there are similar events in Tibet and Mongolia as well, not to mention in all the extensive Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese diaspora communities elsewhere across South-East Asia.

We have a particularly cool zodiac animal this year, The Horse (my nieces will be thrilled; both huge horse-lovers). And not just any old horse, but a 'Fire Horse'. (Each of the 12 Zodiac animals is also associated with one of the 五行, the 'Five Elements' - Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal, and Water. The East Asian Zodiac rotates through each animal for each element, meaning that a full cycle takes 60 years.)

So, if this is a holiday for you - or if, like me, you just enjoy any excuse for a party and embrace everyone else's holidays too - a Happy New Year to you!!!

Or...  Chúc mừng năm mới!

새해 복 많이 받으세요!

Шинэ оны мэнд хүргэе!

ལོ་གསར་བཀྲ་ཤིས་བདེ་ལེགས།!

新年快乐!

A final peek into the Crystal Ball (25/26)

 

It's about time for a final (foolhardy, doomed...) attempt to gaze into the crystal ball, and to try to imagine how the closing stage of the season is going to unfold. We're just about two-thirds of the way into the season: players brought in during the mid-season transfer window have had a few weeks to start bedding in, most of the season's managerial sackings have now been got out of the way (although Scott Parker, I would imagine, is still not sleeping very easily; and there might be one or two others at risk if results go very much amiss over the next month or so), the League Cup finalists have been determined, and a few teams may have cleared out a little bit of breathing-room in the crowded fixture schedule by contriving to crash out of the FA Cup in one of the early rounds. We're all set for the run-in to the title (and to relegation): the last 10, 11, 12 games of the season are where things, as they say, get real.

Only a couple of weeks ago, when Arsenal seemed to have managed to negotiate their slightly wobbly period through December/January without actually dropping many points (while all of their rivals, especially City, had done rather worse), I was finally prepared to concede that they were now looking almost unstoppable, that the title was theirs to lose. I had thought, in particular, that City's woeful collapse in the second half against Spurs in Gameweek 24 looked as though it might have been the decisive turning-point in this season's title race. But.... City have bounced back from that disappointment quite strongly, while Arsenal's 'minor wobble' is perhaps continuing longer than I thought it would. And so, I'm still not completely convinced by Arsenal's capacity to tough it out during this closing stretch. They do, however, have a particularly inviting run of games in the home straight: apart from Chelsea at home at the end of the month and City away in mid-April, they should be struggling to drop points against anyone else. But maybe they'll still find a way to do so?? [Their double fixture in Gameweek 26, which we're still in the middle of, could prove crucial: they've already had one scare/disappointment, in struggling to hang on to a point and often being outplayed away to Brentford last Thursday; if things go similarly amiss for them when they visit Wolves in a couple of days, then... the race is definitely 'back on'; and City may even feel that the momentum has subtly shifted back in their favour.]

I said at the turn of the year that this race was going to be too close to call, and that it would be prudent to avoid doing so. But when I put myself on the spot here in this post,... I'm going to stick with my original gut feeling that Arsenal still weren't quite good enough to hang in until the end; I fancy they will falter - not much, but just enough for someone to catch them. And I suspect they will falter so slightly that only City have any chance of slipping ahead of them. Manchester United, with the benefit of their remarkable Carrick Bounce, currently look much the best and most dangerous team in the league, and I rather think that if they'd ousted Amorim a month or two sooner, they might have been able to get themselves seriously into the title conversation. But given how ropey things were often looking for them in the first half of the season, finishing third, as I now envisage for them, would be a hell of a result. There won't be much to choose between Liverpool and Chelsea, I fancy. Liverpool, I think, have the stronger squad and the more effective overall team, but Chelsea have a bit of an edge in explosive talent, particularly through Palmer - if he can now get back to something like his best in this closing phase of the season; and so I'm tipping Chelsea to just barely cling on to fourth place.

I was a sceptic about Villa's prospects this year (even before their terrible start), feeling that they'd overperformed last year and would struggle to get anywhere near that level again. Emery's men proved me wrong, with a sterling run of form up until around Christmas. But I worry that their squad has always been a bit too thin for these rarefied heights, and now that they've lost most of their midfield for a while - especially the stabilising force of their linchpin player, Kamara - they might really find these next few months a struggle. I'm betting that they'll just about be good enough to hang on to a top six finish - but perhaps largely because of the absence of any strong challenge from those below them, rather than because they finish the campaign all that confidently themselves.

The next four will also be difficult to separate. I fancy Brentford's recent exceptional form, and the outstanding performances of their new centre-forward Thiago, to keep them at the head of the chasing pack, although Bournemouth could run them very, very close. Newcastle are one of the hardest teams to predict, because they've had such an up-and-down season, and have been hit by so many injuries. I still think they have the potential to rally, and prove themselves to be at least a slight cut above the others in this best-of-the-rest group, but... with the talismanic Guimaraes apparently now expected to be out for several weeks, they might struggle even to hang on in mid-table (I think it will help their cause enormously if they can make a dignified early exit from the Champions League); I think, after such a difficult season, they might settle for finishing - narrowly - above their north-east rivals Sunderland.

The bottom-half are all such spotty performers, with such notable flaws in their squad make-up, that it's hard to see any of them justifiably finishing 10th or higher - but you never know: one or two of them might pull off a surprising late flourish. Fulham have had a mostly pretty impressive season, and are being buoyed in particular by the outstanding form of Harry Wilson (although the likes of Smith Rowe, Chukwueze, and Kevin have also been excellent recently); but they do have a serious lack of firepower up-front, and that makes almost every game a bit of a struggle for them. Everton have a similar failing, although for them the great counterbalancing strength of the side that is keeping them well out of the relegation mess is that they have one of the best defences in the league, rather than one of the best sets of goalscoring midfielders.

I fancy Palace and Brighton, despite their difficulties in recent months (collapsing horribly, to confound the optimistic expectations I had for them back in November), should have the quality to stay above the bottom-third scrappers. Leeds seem likely to mount the hardest challenge to pull them down another place. The Yorkshire team have been one of the big surprises of the season for me: their renaissance had not quite yet got fully under way when I last compiled a set of these predictions at the start of December, and I was still expecting them to be fairly out of touch at the bottom (only escaping dead last because Wolves had had such an improbably awful season). but they set off on quite the charge at that point. They seem to have run out of impetus again a little bit now; but they have managed to make themselves clearly rather better than any of the teams now below them, and deserve to hang on to their current position, if not perhaps scrabble even just a little bit higher.

Spurs and Forest have also had weirdly dreadful seasons, and it remains to be seen how much - if anything - of a positive 'bounce' they may enjoy as a result of their latest change of managers. I think they're both probably in too pitiful a state at the moment to mount any very dramatic charge up the table (though I fancy Forest have more potential for that; they seem a better-balanced side, and have few injury problems at the moment; and Stefan Ortega, for me one of the most promising of the January transfers, could help make them a bit more watertight at the back), but they should be good enough to resist any last-gasp challenge from West Ham and Burnley - who are the 'great success' of my predictions this year, both looking fairly certain to have exactly the kind of season I suggested they would. Wolves, alas, are in a little competition of their own, trying to avoid setting worst-ever Premier League performance records; under Rob Edwards, they have started to look as if they should be able to achieve this - but it's still going to be a struggle for them.

So, here's where I'm now expecting everyone to finish. (My earlier attempts to see into the future, my rankings from the September and December posts in this series, are on the right.)

But yes, it has been an unusually up-and-down sort of season: most of the top sides have been 'disappointing' to some extent, almost every club has suffered wild fluctuations in form, and it is still a very tight contest. With only 11 points between 4th and 12th place, and only 16 points between 4th and 16th, we could well see the current order radically reshuffled again before season's end. At the moment, though, I don't foresee too many more more dramatic changes, most teams will just about manage to maintain their current standing. I think Villa and Everton are likely to drop off a little, and Manchester United will probably close the gap on the front two - without quite catching them. But elsewhere, I think things might remain remarkably static from here on. Oh, surely not? Well, no, probably not. But my crystal ball is cloudy now; if there are more big shifts in form in store, I can't see what they're going to be!

Are we starting to 'enjoy' VAR?!

I just came across this very funny little skit from the English comedy writer/performer, Michael Spicer, which effectively skewers so many of the exasperating failings with the 'Video Assistant Review' process which now mars our enjoyment of the beautiful game in the EPL every single week. [I have written about the failings of this system often on this blog - most notably here, where I try to suggest some 'fixes' for them.]

Spicer is best known for an occasional series on his Youtube channel called 'The Room Next Door' - in which he depicts the travails of a backstage 'political advisor' trying to coach some bumbling public figure (remotely, via an earpiece) through a major speech. He recently did an extended one on The Dumpster's senile ramblings at Davos, which is particularly devastating. (The phrase "a laundry-bag of fascist farts" will stay with you...)

A LONG Wildcard?

Some folks like to play their Wildcard when there's a little interruption in the regular Premier League schedule - such as now, when we're skipping a weekend to make way for the 4th Round of the FA Cup, giving us 11 days between the FPL deadlines for Gameweeks 26 and 27. (Sometimes, when there's an international break, we may even get a 14 or 15 day gap between deadlines.)

There are four possible reasons for this preference (though two, no, three of them are pretty frivolous):

1)  You can take advantage of a 'best of both worlds' situation, being able to make transfers early (as soon as the deadline for the current gameweek has passed!) to avoid possible adverse price changes on players you're interested in - while having the security of being able to swap them out again, if they get injured before the next gameweek deadline. 

2) Since these long gaps between deadlines increase the risk of being hit by multiple injuries (there are invariably other games - European ties, domestic cups, or internationals - going on in the interval between regular league matches; and training seems to be becoming more hazardous than playing, in the modern game!), some may find it reassuring to have a Wildcard in play so that they can easily address any such developing crisis - even if they weren't hankering to make any active, improving changes to their squad.

3)  Some enjoy having the leisure to contemplate a major squad rebuild over a longer period of time. Some, indeed, find it difficult to visualise what different combinations of players would look like (and what they'd collectively cost...), and so actually use the 'Transfers' page for trying out multiple 'drafts' of possible new squads. And they can't get enough of this pleasant diversion: they want to drag it out over days and days.

4)  And some pursue 'trading for profit', focusing on trying to build their squad value rather than necessarily improving the total points-potential of their selection. Because there is more time for transfers to happen, and maybe more transfers needing to happen because of the longer period of time elapsed leading to a larger accumulation of injury problems, and because of the probability that more people than usual are using their Wildcards in a gameweek like this,... a long gameweek will tend to have a higher volume of transfer traffic, and this will result in a greater number of price changes. There are various FPL resource sites online that attempt to predict when price changes are imminent; but there's no 'rocket science' about that - it's fairly easy to predict which players are likely to be suddenly popular or unpopular, and you can check in on their recent transfers numbers regularly to see just how big a swing in ownership they are experiencing. 

Transfer trading for profit like this has become more difficult in recent years, as FPL has tweaked its 'algorithm' in a way that makes it rather less easy to trigger a price-change (in either direction), and so we now very rarely see multiple changes in the same gameweek. And of course, you need a player to go up in price twice in order to be able to make a profit on them, because the dreaded 'transfer tax' limits you to half the value of any increase in price since you bought him (rounded down!) when you sell a player on again; hence, you don't earn anything on a first increase in price, nor any extra on a third increase; and you can't reach a fourth increase during such a period of Wildcard trading, as the number of price changes within one gameweek is capped at three. However, where there is an extended gameweek, there is an increased chance that a player's price may rise twice (or twice more, if you were unlucky enough to miss out on his first price rise at the start of the gameweek; although the threshold for each successive price rise within the same gameweek is set far higher, so it is almost unheard-of to see three price rises in one gameweek), thus enabling you to take a quick 100k profit by selling him on immediately. 

In practice, these days it is very difficult to realise a rise in squad value of more than a few hundred thousand through this exercise. And it does take a lot of effort, in scrutinising the transfer numbers every day, and perhaps making dozens of speculative transfers over the course of the gameweek (most of which will return no profit).

So, really, only the first of those reasons is potentially a good one for considering a 'long' gameweek to be a tempting opportunity to trigger your use of the Wildcard.

But even that is a weak reason. And it is, almost always, going to be outweighed by the fact that, as I explained here a little while back, any interruption of the regular league schedule disrupts a club's usual training and preparation routines, and thus makes their form upon the resumption of league games more uncertain; and...  you don't want uncertainty when you're planning a major rebuild of your squad for the remainder of the season.

I rather feel that - in an 'ideal world', anyway - it's still too early to be contempating using the 2nd Wildcard. We haven't had time yet to evaluate the possible impact of changes made in the recent transfer window; and we've just seen a couple more managerial sackings (and we might yet see one or two more). And there are no major 'turns' in fixture difficulty likely for several weeks yet. It's always better to hang on to a Wildcard for as long as you can - unless there's a pressing need to use it.

However,... a possible factor that might tempt people to risk such an 'early' Wildcard now is the increasing attractiveness of some high-priced players who haven't previously been worth having: Wirtz finally getting into his groove at Liverpool, Palmer starting to pick up regular points with Chelsea again (though he still doesn't look fully fit to me), Semenyo settling in very well at City and - rather unexpectedly - getting regular starts (so far; I still fret that he might face occasional rotation once Doku's fully fit again), Sesko and Gyokeres possibly finding their scoring boots at last, and Mbeumo and Cunha also becoming very alluring as United's season has dramatically turned around under Michael Carrick. If you suddenly fancy bringing in even one or two of these players, that might require three or four changes - to shunt your budget around to be able to afford them. And if you have one or two injury problems as well,... then you're finding yourself in Wildcard territory. 

Better to hold off a while longer, if you can; but I can see how it's getting mighty tempting at the moment.

A little bit of Zen (81)

 

"We come to love that which we experience every day. But we can grow to hate that which we love every day."

GW

This, alas, is the way of the world. Familiarity breeds affection. That can lead to obsession. But ultimately, also, to ennui. And finally, very often, to contempt.

I have often slipped into the ennui zone with FPL - but I've never yet fallen out of love with it. Perhaps I will one day....  Perhaps.

[What else am I going to write about on the eve of Valentine's Day??]

Missing the 'linchpin'....?

 

We all use the term 'linchpin' all the time, often, perhaps, without fully appreciating its original meaning. In the physical world, rather than the realm of metaphor, it is the simplest form of mechanical fastening - usually securing a wheel to its axle. So, yes - it is the thing without which the wheels fall off...

In the football context, it is most often applied to the industrious, combative central midfielder who tends to sit fairly deep and fulfill a mostly defensive role (providing cover in front of the back-line to stop or disrupt or at least slow down counter-attacks, and trying to get back to provide an extra body in the box if such a break does slip past him), but also often being mainly responsible for setting the tempo of the game (knowing when to move the ball on quickly, and when to pause for a few seconds to allow teammates to recover their positions or catch their breath; knowing when to go for a progressive pass, and knowing when it's more sensible to opt for a low-risk, time-buying layoff sideways or backwards...), as well as being a crucial steadying, confidence-building influence in the team (Pep memorably said earlier this season, of Rodri, that his players would be far less nervous when protecting a narrow lead in the closing phase of the game if they knew the Spaniard was there to receive the ball from them - with absolutely no chance that he would give it up to the other side cheaply),... and also, perhaps, just tending to set the psychological tone of a game (establishing the level of competitiveness, the intensity of energy and desire - and sometimes just making it clear how much it's going to hurt opponents to try to get past your team or to take the ball off your team...).

I have always felt that players like this are key to the success of any top side. Rodri, or Vieira or Keane back in the Noughties, or (going right back to my childhood) guys like Graeme Souness and John McGovern and Billy Bremner.... were not the most attractive ball-players or the most idolised members of their teams; but those teams would not, I think, have enjoyed much or any of the success they did without them.

Few people - other than particularly astute Villa fans - would probably have appreciated that Boubacar Kamara was one of their 'most important' players now. But I fancy his loss is likely to be more keenly felt than that of Tielemans or McGinn (also ruled out recently), or even than the absence of one of their main creative players - Rogers, Buendia, Watkins - would be. Similarly, we have seen a number of times that Chelsea usually struggle to assert themselves in games when Moises Caicedo is injured or suspended. And I recently learned the astonishing statistic that, since the Brazilian joined the club four years ago, Newcastle have never yet managed to win a league game without him!

This is the importance of the central defensive midfielder for FPL; you won't often want them in your squad for their points potential (because, even with the handy lift of the additional 'defensive points' this season, as well as a few untypical little sprees of goalscoring from some of them, which have significantly elevated the totals of players like James Garner, Elliot Anderson, and Moises Caicedo, a primarily defensive player is rarely going to be anywhere near as much of a points-producer as a regular goalscorer classified by the game as a 'midfielder'*). However, you should be very alert to the impact that their fitness, and their level of performance, can have on those around them. [I commented last week on how Pascal Gross, Angel Gomes, and perhaps Douglas Luiz, were for me the most 'interesting' of this year's mid-season transfers-in, precisely because of this potential knock-on effect they might have, which could boost the FPL value of certain of their teammates.]

And this is now my only major worry for Arsenal as they seek to realise the potential for a multi-trophy season. Declan Rice, fabulous and versatile player though he is, has repeatedly shown that he was not able to fulfill a holding midfield role for them, when Partey was missing (at least, not on his own; he can contribute usefully to this task when paired with someone whose natural strengths are more suited to it). Meanwhile, Martin Zubimendi, good though he is, is not yet, I think, quite as impressive in this niche as Thomas Partey was at his best. And they don't have any cover for him...

People always focus on the more obviously influential players at the club, and fret how an injury to Raya or Gabriel or Rice or Saka might upset their title charge. But if they lose Zubimendi to a serious injury,..... I think they might be f@*ed!

*  Yes, I know Rice and Guimaraes and Enzo Fernandez are up near the head of the FPL midfielder rankings at the moment; but they are players who do provide a well-above-average goal threat, as well as being a major source of potential assists from set-pieces. And yes, even the less obviously 'box-to-box' Garner, Anderson, and Gravenberch are quite well placed too, having climbed above 100 points for the season. But the big difference in the game this year is not the supposed impact of the new 'defensive points' (nice to have, but you wouldn't, shouldn't be putting any player in your starting eleven purely for this), but the fact that - for a wide variety of reasons - almost all of the 'usual suspects' we'd usually look to among the goalscoring midfielders to be our major points-returners for the season... have failed to come up with much. There have been a few (Antoine Semenyo, Bruno Fernandes, Harry Wilson, Morgan Rogers) who've done pretty well; and there are some more we can still have hopes for (Wirtz, Cherki, Palmer, Saka..., maybe even Mo Salah??). But, compared to most recent years, the 'midfielder' category is almost devoid of any significant returns this year: Garner, Guimaraes, et al are not up near the top of the tree because they've been outstanding; even with a fat boost from 'defensive points', their current totals would be nothing to get excited about in any other year.

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 26

A few unpleasant selection surprises again this week; although, at least, not too many new injury disasters to add to our FPL troubles.

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... now I've hit upon a new 'format', which might help: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Jake O'Brien's sending-off was at least pretty clear-cut: one of the few big decisions in this gameweek that no-one can have much of an argument with.

Red cards not awarded: Kenny Tete appeared to have had a surreptitious tug on Semenyo's braids in the penalty area, but after some rumination, VAR felt that the TV pictures didn't give a decisive view of the incident (I bet there were some camera-angles that did; and they just didn't get around to accessing them). Phil Foden was also rather lucky to get away with a clumsy challenge on Bassey, planting his studs in the back of the defender's Achilles as he ran away from him - amazing that wasn't at least given a serious look by VAR.

Brobbey was wrestled to the ground in the penalty area by Konate; he went down 'easily', but he was clearly being held - I don't know how VAR can not give these! Ekitike was even more fortunate to go unpunished when he caught hold of Roefs's chin to pull him off-balance as he was trying to clear the ball: it was only a very brief contact, and possibly 'accidental' - but it was again a very clear and incontrovertible foul; and, as contact with the face, it might well have been considered worthy of a red card.

Penalties awarded: Both penalties in the Chelsea v Leeds game were uncontentious.

Rayan's lunge did not appear to make any contact with Branthwaite, yet a penalty was awarded - and VAR didn't seem to pay the incident any further attention.

Penalties not awarded: 

Tight/dubious offsides: Joe Willock's apparent opener against Spurs was eventually ruled out by VAR; yet again, the SAOT graphic was severely unhelpful, unconvincing - appearing to show that the last Spurs defender's shoulder was indeed at least marginally nearer to the byline than any part of Willock's body. A strange one. Casemiro also had a goal chalked off for a very tight offside; to the naked eye - and to the player himself - he had looked narrowly 'off'; but the SAOT picture again confused rather than clarified the call.

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed:  Palace have a fair case that the ball bounced up on to Ugochukwu's arm at the beginning of the move that led to Burnley's second goal (and we didn't hear that VAR was even looking at that?).

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Calvert-Lewin was a late omission on Tuesday, owing to an illness.

Both Pep and Marco Silva made a raft of substitutions just shy of the hour. And Haaland was withdrawn at half-time after suffering a heavy challenge.

Matty Cash was a last-minute omission, owing to a knee problem.

Eddie Howe left Hall, Wissa, and Tonali on the bench at Spurs.

Lots of surprises/disappointments for Arsenal fans in their first game of the gameweek against Brentford, the biggest of which was the omission of Saliba due to an illness. Havertz had also dropped out with another muscle strain, while Saka and Odegaard, struggling with injuries for a while, were only fit for the bench; hence, Madueke, Eze, and Mosquera got starts.

Near misses: Wirtz had a stinging 25-yard drive well palmed away by Roefs, and shortly afterwards hit a 15-yard cross-shot against the foot of the post.

Kadioglu cracked a long-range effort against the cross-bar in the first-half against Villa (Martinez got fingertips to it, but not enough for it to have counted as a 'save' - although it probably did!)

Big misses/big saves: Cole Palmer unbelievably sky-ed a late effort over the bar from a few yards out - when presented with an open-goal by Caicedo's low cross from the right.

Harry Wilson fluffed Fulham's best chance of the match (twice!) in the first-half at The Etihad - an opportunity he would surely have converted any other time in the last couple of months. Fulham also had a dangerous goal-mouth scramble in the closing seconds of the game, but couldn't find a way to prod home the consolation goal that would have wrecked everyone's 'clean sheet' points for City...

Ekitike had a free header near the end, but couldn't get his effort on target. Moments later, a Salah half-volley went just inches wide of the far post.

Martin Dubravka pulled off a superb save from an Ismaila Sarr volley in the final moments, to save the points for Burnley.

José Sá pulled off an important double-save late on against Forest to secure the draw - and make him (so far...) the gameweek's top-scoring keeper. In the first-half, Forest had enjoyed a 6-on-1 break, but Hudson-Odoi's cross found new-boy Lorenzo Lucca, who somehow spooned his effort over the top. At the death, Wolves had a 4-on-1 break, but this time Mateus Mané fired his shot tamely straight at the keeper.

Wan-Bissaka made a great goal-line block with his knee to preserve West Ham's lead.

Thiago had one powerful header brilliantly saved by Raya, while Lewis-Potter put one into the side netting - before eventually grabbing an equaliser. Thiago also blazed over from a good chance on a second-half breakaway. And Kelleher made a great stop from Martinelli at the end of a dangerous quick break late in the game. So, lots of excitement in that crucial game - but, as far as I can gather (from the very brief highlights so far available online), no refereeing screw-ups.

Outstanding goals: 

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: An awful mix-up between Sanchez, Acheampong, and Gusto gifted Leeds an equaliser they didn't really deserve.

Bad luck: Lerma's own-goal was wretchedly unfortunate - Henderson's parry  pinging into him from no distance, and being deflected into the net off his heel: one of the most improbable - and least culpable - o.g.'s I've ever seen.

FPL weirdness: Surely Haaland should have had an assist for City's first goal? It looked to me as if he won the header cleanly, even if it subsequently got a bit of a deflection off the nearest defender on the way through to Semenyo to poke it home. 

And Van Dijk should not have been awarded Liverpool's late winner: the final decisive touch clearly came off the back of Diarra's head. (Maybe there's still time to reappraise that one? It really makes a huge difference in FPL land!! It's probably a case of a decision prejudiced by sentiment: with the assist currently awarded to Salah's corner, Super Mo has moved level with Steven Gerrard as Liverpool's second highest provider of assists [he'll never catch Kenny Dalglish...].)

There was another similar aberration at Villa Park, with Mings unaccountably being credited with an 'assist' on Hinshelwood's unfortunate late own-goal - though he clearly didn't get any contact on the ball, and the assist should properly have been given to Leon Bailey taking the corner.

There's also something very weird with the counting of 'saves' this week, with many keepers only being credited with 1 or 2, despite having fairly 'busy' games; Henderson and Dubravka seem to have been particularly hard done-by, with an official total of just 1 each - despite clearly getting at least a few more than that even in the brief TV highlights.

Unexpected results: Chelsea really should have won comfortably against a Leeds side who were well below their recent best - but somehow they didn't.

The normally robust Everton defence wouldn't usually be expected to give away two such soft goals as they did against Bournemouth on Tuesday.

Liverpool really didn't deserve that win over Sunderland. Nor did Villa against Brighton.

Burnley put up a very spirited performance at Palace, but no-one would really have expected them to pull out a win here - especially after going 2-0 down! This was the most topsy-turvy result in a pretty wild gameweek.

Few people would have bet on either Forest or Wolves to keep a clean sheet - even against each other.

Although Manchester United were well below their recent levels, West Ham's clinging on to a draw against them was unexpected, and only just barely deserved.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is another odd one, though not as crazy as most this season have been: José Sá is one of the few goalkeepers to have managed a clean sheet, which will have been an unexpected bonus for the many FPL managers who got him in just for this double gameweek; and the defence (currently; it will doubtless mostly be replaced by doubling Arsenal players eventually...) does at least include four fairly popular players (albeit ones who haven't consistently been producing at the highest level): Semenyo and Palmer, though, are the only attacking players that anyone owns. Thus, it's so far looking like another fairly miserable gameweek average; only 40 points, at the moment.  

Liverpool were very, very fortunate to come out on top in a game where Sunderland mostly matched them pretty well; and they probably should have both conceded a penalty and had Ektike sent off - so, that rankles as a particularly unjust result in this batch of games. In fact, 6 of the first 9 games didn't really pan out according to expectation or desert. And there have been an usually large number of at least slightly dubious decisions, and non-appearances by popular players. I think this is actually one of the worst, weirdest gameweeks we've had in a long while, and even with two games left to play, it's already looking like at least an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

However, since everyone surely has 3 Arsenal players this week, almost everyone is making one of them captain, a fair few have 1 or 2 picks from Wolves as well, and many are playing a bonus chip to boot,... we''re still barely half-way through this gameweek. We'll have to wait another week to find out how bad things really are.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW 26 (25/26)

This is a weirdly long gameweek, with Wolves v Arsenal (moved forward from Gameweek 31, when Arsenal will now play against City in the League Cup Final) scheduled for next Wednesday evening - yet bizarrely attached to this gameweek rather than the much more adjacent one following. No, it makes no sense. Those two teams thus both enjoy a double gameweek (although 'enjoy' is probably not the appropriate word for experience Wolves supporters can expect).

Amazingly enough - for about the first time I can ever recall - there appear to be no new injuries emerging from the weekend's games; well, hardly any (only three??). However, since most of the week's press conferences happened on Monday morning, there is a chance that managers were not yet fully apprised of the latest 'bad news'; and, of course, more misfortunes may have unfolded during training on Monday or Tuesday. If I catch any late updates on Tuesday evening, I'll try to add them. (But I live in an advanced timezone, where the FPL deadline for this gameweek isn't until the early hours of the morning. So, I'll probably be in bed long before the 'late-breaking news' breaks... Sorry.)

I am trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 26?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Leandro Trossard had to come off with an injury against Sunderland on Saturday: no further news on that, it seems.

Andrey Santos also left the field with an injury of some sort in the Wolves game (but he's a fairly infrequent starter, anyway).

Forest defender Murillo missed last Friday's game at Leeds with a calf-strain and might still be doubtful.

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Dominik Szoboszlai is banned for one game, or his 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity offence' (even though, paradoxically, a 'goal' was still scored....) in the dying moments of Sunday's game against City. Since Joe Gomez appears to be still not fully fit, and Liverpool don't really have any other defenders any more, it seems likely that Curtis Jones will have to take his place on Wednesday as the latest makeshift right-back.

Cristian Romero is starting a three-match 'serious foul play' ban for clogging Caicedo at the weekend (although, to my mind, it was entirely accidental; rash and reckless, yes, but not vicious); no, sorry, it's actually a four-game ban, as he picks up an extra penalty for it being his second red card of the season. Radu Dragusin will probably to deputise for him (and if he or Van de Ven get injured, Spurs will presumably have to recruit one of their ball-boys into the defence...).

West Ham defender Jean-Clair Todibo is serving the second part of his three-game 'violent conduct' ban for having put his hand around Joao Pedro's throat the other week.

And Kevin Schade is serving the last leg of his three-match ban.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Last weekend already somehow feels like a month or so away (ah, all-day drinking during and after the Super Bowl yesterday - that would account for the worse-than-usual memory fog). So, no - no particular stinkers come to mind this time.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Most folks seem to have been using their transfers this week to load up for the Double Gameweek; although I find this quite baffling, as two games for Wolves is arguably more of a disadvantage than an advantage, and it's hard to see any of their players having better prospects than those you have already - even with the potential lift of a second fixture next week. And surely everyone ought to have three Arsenal players already??? (What's worse, the two most popular new picks are Gyokeres and Zubimendi, who - apart from a few players like Eze who might be unlikely to start in both games [but then, so is Gyokeres!] - are absolutely the last two I would pick for this double.)

Cole Palmer is also proving predictably popular with The Sheep (though not as popular as perhaps might have been expected, owing to the distracting gravity-well of the Arsenal double gameweek), having gained over 200,000 new owners since his 20-point haul at the weekend. I am one of Palmer's biggest fans, but I still didn't think his all-around performance looked all that sharp against Wolves: two of his goals were penalties (and pretty soft awards, at that); and he himself complained of being still not fully fit in his post-game interview. His inclusion requires a major squad revamp, as he'd currently be the only player priced above 9 million worth having (apart from Haaland), and thus everyone would surely have to make at least one or two additional transfers to shuffle the budget around to accommodate him. And I don't think he's worth that trouble, yet; he looks like he still needs at least one or two more weeks.

Diogo Dalot is the one player who's caught my eye - as having steadily better and better, more and more influential games in the last few weeks.

Oh, and Brentford's Dango Ouattara had an absolute banger of a game at the weekend.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Sheep Picks (19)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Well, gosh, yes, it's 10 weeks or so since I last did one of these; and (nothing personal, Arsenal fans!) the last one was.... Ebere Eze!

This week's entry in the series should be very short and sweet. Naturally enough, folks in FPL-land get a bit excited when the league leaders get an early double gameweek, and want to make sure they are loaded up on their players for it. But.... everyone should really have had three Arsenal players already.

And if you were going to change one of your Arsenal selections, or bring in an extra one, especially for this Double Gameweek 26,... these are absolutely the last two I would have chosen! And yet, and yet,.... my oldest friend, and chief antagonist in FPL - who is, frankly, a bit of a klutz at the game - has just bought both of them. And he's not alone: apart from the obviously popular defenders, Gabriel and Timber (who didn't own them already?!), Martin Zubimendi and Viktor Gyokeres have been among the most popular Arsenal acquisitions. Zubimendi was transferred in over 400,000 times in the last couple of days, more than doubling his ownership; Gyokeres has gained closer to 500,000 new owners!

Martin Zubimendi is a fine player. And I actually feel that his absence - if he should get injured - would be more disastrous to Arsenal's title hopes than any other player's. But that doesn't mean he's worth having for FPL. Yes, he just picked up a fine pair of goals in his last two league outings, but... goals for a central defensive midfielder are a rare treat, not a reliable asset; he's probably already exceeded his quota for the season., and should not be expected to get any more in this double-fixture. Assists? Even less likely: only one - aberrant - example so far. Even more frustratingly for those pinning their hopes on him, he's not even that much of a magnet for the handy new 'defensive points'; in fact, he's one of those who almost always comes up short of the threshold for them, regularly puts in a decent shift but is only accorded 6, 7, 8 'defensive contributions', well short of the required match total of 12 such involvements. He's only actually won 'defensive points' 3 or 4 times so far this season; so, again, it's a bit of a long shot that he'll contribute to your points total that way. He is, at least, almost certain to start both games (though, who knows the mind of Mikel; maybe he'll give Damsgaard a runout in one of them?); but he's also almost certain to be the lowest points-scorer among all Arsenal players who do play in both games. And he is, thus, an absolutely bonkers FPL pick.

Viktor Gyokeres is a marginally less unfathomable choice, because at least he's a primary goalscorer (though, ahem, not as regular as Zubimendi in the last two games!), and he has shown signs in the past month or so of recovering some of his confidence in front of goal. However, he is ridiculously expensive at 8.8 million quid; when there are other forwards like Thiago, Ektike, and recently Joao Pedro, who look in much better form... for less money, it's pretty difficult to justify getting him in even for a short-term sell-and-buy-back, just to try to exploit this week's double-fixture. Moreover, he's not even a certain starter: good as he's looked in the last few games, Jesus and Havertz have arguably looked even better; and Arteta does like to rotate quite a lot in the attacking positions - so, I'd say it's rather uncertain that any of the forward roster will start in both games.

Gabriel is, obviously, well out in front as Arsenal's most promising points-provider. Timber is probably the next best option (any of the defenders would be, if they could be counted on to start: but only Timber has been an ever-present of late - even Saliba has had a few injury issues, and isn't as much of an attacking threat); and then Rice. If you have three Arsenal players (though that's always risky, even with such a pre-eminent club), those should have been the three. If you didn't, the one you brought in should have been one of these three. (Raya is a guaranteed starter, and has a good chance of at least one clean sheet from two games against weaker opponents; but that's true of his defenders too, and they have some chance of picking up 'defensive points' and/or bonus points too,... and maybe even an attacking contribution [though that is not to be relied upon, even from an aerial monster like Gabi!]; Raya is very, very rarely kept busy enough to earn 'saves' points - or bonus points, unless a game ends in a goalless draw! - so his 'points ceiling' is basically capped at 6 per game, he's very, very unlikely to be able to outscore his defenders.)

And if I were going to try something different for this double gameweek, fancying the chance of at least one more free-scoring performance from this notoriously constipated Arsenal side in what should be a pair of relatively undemanding fixtures (though no opponent should be underestimated: Brentford's form has been really impressive of late, and Wolves can create some attacking danger, especially through the very lively youngster Mané, even if they're still often very flakey at the back), I would go for an attacking midfielder - most probably Madueke (who has been the most regular starter lately, and in the best form; even if Saka is 'fit' again, I doubt if he'll be rushed back into starting action; and even if he is, I think Madueke would keep his start, and be moved over to the left flank), though a case might also be made for Trossard, or perhaps even Eze (who hasn't been a prolific provider for Arsenal, but might get two starts, if Odegaard is unavailable), or Martinelli (who has been on a bit of a scoring streak just lately, and might be worth having a punt on, even if he's only used as a super-sub!).

But Gyokeres and Zubimendi - are you kidding me??????

Once again, the siren call of a Double Gameweek

With Arsenal suddenly having a Double Gameweek scheduled this week (only confirmed in the last few days, after they booked their spot in the League Cup Final last Tuesday), a lot of folks are getting frantically excited about the possibility of playing a bonus chip in GW26.

I had been tempted to title this quick post on the prospect, The Double Gameweek Delusion. I have written before that the value of Double Gameweeks for a bonus chip play is massively over-estimated by the FPL community - it's a misguided superstition that has been elevated to the status of a cult. However....

Well, as a Bench Boost opportunity, this coming Gameweek certainly looks like a waste of time. You should only really count the points returns of your weakest players (the ones you properly should have left on your bench: many people try to delude themselves into thinking they've done well from the chip by stacking the bench with some of their best players!). If a doubling player is worth having, he's probably worth starting; hence, you won't generally have doubling players on your bench unless almost your entire squad are enjoying double-fixtures - and that's not going to happen unless we have a really BIG Double Gameweek (which are almost uknown these days: we won't get one at all unless all the fixtures postponed from FA Cup Semi-Finals weekend get rearranged to the same gameweek; and that won't be until the very end of the season - a dangerously long time to hold on to your bonus chips, for such an uncertain hope of any advantage...). Here, it's difficult to see value in any Wolves players, even playing twice. (Even if they should produce a marginal advantage over your regular squad players with their lone fixtures, it's very unlikely to outweigh the hassle of using up transfers - which should always be seen as having some effective 'points cost' - to move them in and out again.)  And your Arsenal players obviously aren't going to be on your bench! So, there is no Bench Boost opportunity here.

As a Triple Captain prospect, though.... perhaps there is a case to be made.

Gabriel looks like being the most popular choice. Timber might be an equally strong option. And some might fancy Declan Rice, who's been their most consistent source of 'assists' (as well as producing an occasional goal!) - although his form has looked a little muted of late. And a bolder ploy could be to gamble on an attacking player like Madueke or Trossard or Havertz (the main argument against being that there is much more rotation risk in the attacking positions).

In general, goalscoring midfielders (who get more points than forwards for the same attacking contribution, and might pick up additional points for a clean sheet and/or 'defensive contributions'), or forwards in such freakishly good form that they might well return a multi-goal haul, are the best options as captain or Triple Captain.

But Arsenal are having an exceptional season: their defence is miles better than anyone else's - picking up a clean sheet once every two games, and only conceding an average of 0.65 goals per game. Thus, they do seem to have a very strong prospect of picking up at least one, possibly two clean sheets from this pair of games. And, of course, there's a chance that a defender could earn 'defensive points' or bonus points as well (although that's probably a fairly remote prospect: you rarely earn 'defensive points' against weaker teams; and defenders don't often earn bonus points in a game where their team has scored a few goals...), and perhaps even chip in an attacking contribution (although that's rather a lot to hope for from a defender, even a comparative goals-and-assists monster like Gabriel).

If you choose an Arsenal defender who starts both games, it's reasonable to expect that they should return at least 8 points this gameweek, and perhaps in the 10-15 point range. That's a pretty decent return on the captain's armband.

However, betting on clean sheets is always a precarious hope: even the weakest teams can occasionally surprise you with an uncommonly spirited performance (Brentford, particularly, but also Wolves of late, are actually pretty dangerous in attack), and late goals can appear out of nowhere....

Punting the TC on Gabriel or Timber this week is a high-floor/low(ish)-ceiling kind of play; it's a fairly conservative option for the chip - one that gives you an unusually strong chance of having a player who'll produce an 8- or 10-point gameweek, but a fairly remote likelihood of a really big score.

There are going to be at least TWO more Double Gameweeks this season. So, bolder FPL managers will probably hang on for one of those to play this chip. (Manchester United could still get one, if Brentford reach the semi-finals of the FA Cup; that could make a Triple Captain bet on Bruno Fernandes or Bryan Mbeumo very tempting...)

But going for an Arsenal player this week is a very alluring bird-in-the-hand option: it almost certainly won't produce the biggest Triple Captain return of the season, but it does seem to offer a much stronger-than-average prospect of a decent 8-10 point return. (NB  Again, people like to brag about the total points they received from their Triple Captain pick, tripling the number of his actual game contribution. But, of course, he would have played for you anyway, and he would have been your captain anyway; so the actual value of the chip is only his basic points return - the extra points that you got from making him Triple Captain rather than just captain.)

But be warned... the particular hazard of this Double Gameweek is how unusually protracted it is: Arsenal's two games are nearly a full week apart, and with an FA Cup tie against Wigan intervening. There is a not insignificant chance that an Arsenal player you bet your Triple Captaincy on here will get injured before the Wolves game next Wednesday....

So, are you feeling LUCKY??

WHAT?? Early Deadline warning!!

 

Darn it - I had thought we were due for a nice little rest from the incessant demands-for-attention of Fantasy Football, since next weekend is given over to the 4th Round of the FA Cup... Alas, it had slipped my attention on this occasion that, in order to fit all the League matches within our too-short number of available weeks, we have to cram in another midweek gameweek this week.

There's a raft of games tomorrow, Tuesday evening (early hours of Wednesday in my timezone - making it impossible to wait until close to the deadline to make squad changes...); the next FPL deadline is 6pm (UK time) on the Tuesday 10th of February.

Never a moment's peace....

And don't forget, this is now a Double Gameweek for Wolves and Arsenal, as their Gameweek 31 match (when Arsenal will be playing City in the League Cup Final) has been moved forward to Wednesday the 18th of February - and, although that's a full 6 days after the last of the originally scheduled GW26 games and obviously far more adjacent to the following weekend's fixtures,.... it's been declared to be part of Gameweek 26, rather than Gameweek 27.... for reasons known only to the League's mysterious scheduling minions.

I'll try to put out one of my usual updates on injury news and such this afternoon (but I might not manage it!).

Just once a year - watching A FUNNY-SHAPED BALL

I noted at this time last year that, while I do not think it remotely bears comparison with the grace and artistry of real football, I do nevertheless have a longstanding soft spot for the American gridiron game. And I confess this weakness has become bound up with my other great moral frailty - an occasional fondness for drinking heavily at breakfast time (usually only on this one occasion each year, I promise!). I look forward to the Super Bowl every year because, when living in East Asia, the game gets under way for me at around 6.30 or 7am - and this is just such an exquisite time of day to crack open one's first beer. (With any luck, one of these - since I've finally tracked down a store that fairly regularly seems to have it in cans.)

Super Bowl LX (and I do love that they're doing their bit to keep Roman numerals alive!) is between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks tomorrow morning (in my part of the world). I have not the slightest shred of attachment to either team (and have hardly seen anything of the games this season!), so.... I will pledge my allegiance according to the time-honoured principles of random sentiment and playful rancour. I spent a very pleasant few days in Seattle back in the 1990s (although, true to the city's reputation, it did piss with rain most of the time), and I've had a bit of a soft spot for it ever since (though I've never previously taken an interest in any of their sports teams). Extra bonus points to the place for being the setting of Frasier!! And one of my old drinking buddies from my Beijing days is a diehard Pats fan - so, it will be fun to root against him during the game. (If I had the money, I'd flit off to join him for the event. He's going to be watching it in a beach bar in Thailand - lucky sod! Only a few hundred miles away; but in my current state of penury, it might as well be 10,000 miles....)

Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 25

 

Not too many new injury worries or unexpected selection woes this week... What a nice change!!

These weekly 'summaries' have been getting a bit too involved - and excessively time-consuming for me! - so I've been aiming to keep them briefer recently. I made just about zero progress on that resolution for the first few weeks, but.... this time, I'm going to try something new: just a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Romero's sending-off just before the half-hour at Old Trafford was not obviously unjust, but it was, for me, on the harsher end of things. It was misfortuitous that Casemiro's toe-studs had got stuck in the turf just before the Argentinian caught him on the inside of his ankle and so caused his foot to roll over so painfully; the actual contact was really not that hard. And we have seen many similar incidents in the last year or two dismissed as "having insufficient force to seriously endanger the opponent" or as "being an accidental contact from a natural follow-through". I think the Argentinian was a bit rash to have such a vigorous swish at a ball that was about to not be there any more; but it wasn't a really bad foul.

Red cards not awarded: Alisson's late penalty-foul on Nunes was not in any doubt; but the keeper had been fortunate in the first-half when he took the ball off a breaking Marmoush with a very high foot, and the Egyptian forward flinched out of the way of contact; if he had been caught, even slightly, that would have been a certain red card. Not a wrong decision - but a very lucky near-miss.

Penalties awarded: The handball decision against Jacob Murphy was very harsh: his arm was close to his side, not moving towards the ball - and the shot was fired directly at him from close range. If we accepted that blocking a goal-bound shot should always be a 'strict liability' offence, then fine - but I don't think that's the rule at the moment. If there's supposed to be some 'unnatural position' culpability element in the offence, then this looked like a bad call. A penalty for Newcastle seemed 'fair' on the balance of play (especially as they'd had a very harsh one awarded against them earlier), but Kayode's contact on the back of Guimaraes's leg was light and accidental - there was really nothing in that.

Both of Chelsea's awards were probably correct, but a bit soft: a slight - accidental! - treading on Joao Pedro's toe for the first, and a very, very light push (and only just barely over the line!) in his back for the second.

Penalties not awarded: Cunha suffered a shin-to-shin or knee-to-knee contact from Pape Sarr in the first half that tripped him on the edge of the box: not a bad foul, but very defiinitely a foul - and it looked like the point of contact was probably right over the outer edge of the line. It deserved a full consideration from VAR, which it seemed not to get. 

Two Sunderland players appeared to get wrestled to the ground in the Arsenal penalty area at a set-piece, in the final action of the first-half; it should have been looked at by VAR, but apparently wasn't - as the referee immediately blew the whstle to take the players off the field.

Marmoush surely should have had a penalty after 15 minutes at Anfield: Konate had both hands on him, and put his leg across - the combination of which threw him off balance as he entered the box. The contact was, yes, brief and light; but it was plainly deliberate and illegal, and more than enough to bring the man down. The only question should have been whether the contact had 'started outside the box' (possibly; but the consequential part of it was clearly on or just over the line). Somehow, the VAR team seemed to find this incident unworthy of their consideration. In the second-half, Salah was hauled down by a tug on the shirt from Guehi: the holding had certainly begun outside the box, but continued into it - and it will always be a bit of a grey area as to where the 'decisive moment' of such an illegal contact occurred. To me, that one looked like a penalty.

Tight/dubious offsides: Gabriel Jesus's break from the half-way line (which nearly produced a second goal barely a minute after Zubimendi gave them the lead) was very, very narrowly offside (and yet again, the SAOT graphic was a bit unconvincing - somehow making the margin look three times as big as it had to the naked eye!). This move ended in a penalty award from Sam Barrott when Jesus was nudged off the ball by Ballard while trying to round Roefs. Didn't look like a penalty to me; but VAR never looked at it, because of the prior offside. (I worry that they perhaps wouldn't have looked at it, even if Jesus had been adjudged onside, because they'd become too preoccupied with that issue....)

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Udogie had to go off with a knock after just 54 minutes.

Noni Madueke was pulled of just shy of the hour.

Nuno dropped Areola in goal, in favour of Mads Hermansen - a potential blow to over 250,000 Fantasy managers (although most of them, perhaps, will only have the French keeper as a back-up option rather than their preferred starter).

Rosenior rested Reece James in favour of Malo Gusto.

Strand Larsen did indeed start straight away for Palace, replacing Mateta. Van Hecke is apparently struggling with a previously undisclosed hamstring problem, while Minteh and Welbeck were surprisingly left on the bench.

Cherki and Foden were this week's victims of Pep Roulette (and Foden did not look happy about it), as Marmoush and Ait-Nouri surprisingly got starts against Liverpool. 

Near misses: Calvert-Lewin smashed a header against the crossbar early on in Friday night's game at Elland Road.

Mbeumo's best chance of the game, a hooked half-volley from Diallo's lay-off, flew a bit too high. Cunha and Simons also had good 20-yard efforts fly just wide in Saturday's opening game.

Janelt scrambled a Wissa effort off the line - and an early two-goal lead for the home side would surely have changed the outcome of the match; indeed, Janelt went down the other end and headed an equaliser shortly afterwards. 

Mateus Mané whacked a 17-yard curler against the post.

Smith Rowe beat Pickford with a 20-yard dipper but saw it slam against the crossbar, while Chukwueze later unleashed an absolute screamer from 25 yards which grazed the top of the bar. In the same game, Jake O'Brien headed a corner against the post.

Big misses/big saves: Fernandes's floated chip found Sesko unmarked in the middle of the box in the final seconds of the game, but he headed softly straight at the keeper. Ektike fluffed a rather similar effort from a Salah cross against City.

Kelleher produced the 'Save of the Day' from a fierce cross-shot from Thiaw. Donnarumma's crucial late save from Macallister's long-range effort was perhaps a bit more showy than it needed to be - but still very good.

Outstanding goals: A 20-yard pinger from Zubimendi for Arsenal's first: perhaps very slightly mishit, but fizzed low, with a wicked in-swing to beat Roefs and thud in off the foot of the near post. And that 33-yard rocket of a free-kick from Szoboszlai!

Strangely, that was the only really striking effort this week. In most recent weeks we've had 3, 4, 5 bangers from outside the area (January's 'Goal of the Month' selection on the BBC was just ridiculous!!); but none of that this time, despite there being a rather higher number of goals overall (29).

Outstanding performances: Cole Palmer - suddenly recapturing the magic! Only about 12% of FPL managers own him at the moment: they must be very happy (though I suspect an awful lot of those are 'zombie accounts' that bought him at the start of the season, but soon stopped playing the game - rather than people who took a hopeful punt on bringing him back in for the present short run of relatively easy fixtures, before he'd recovered his form...). Although, yes, two of them were - slightly dubious - penalties... And he said afterwards that he still isn't "proper fit".

Big mistakes: NONE, remarkably.

Bad luck: Very unfortunate for Vitaly Mykolenko to have Pickford's save of a Raul effort ricochet off him into the goal! In the same game, Leno was perhaps even more unlucky to have a corner bounce in off his fist as he failed to get around the blocking Everton player.

Rayan Cherki's 'goal' in the dying seconds at Anfield would have been slightly lucky if it had stood, since he clearly intended a through-ball rather than an attempt on the goal left unguarded by Alisson's desperate foray into the attacking third. But equally, it seemed rather unlucky that it was disallowed because of a holding foul on Haaland by Szoboszlai (which inevitably earned him a sending-off, almost certainly the latest of the entire season...). And indeed, but for that foul, it would have been Haaland's goal. So, there were all kinds of massive FPL points fluctuations across the multiverse in that little 10-second fiasco!!

FPL weirdness: Dalot doing better on the BPS than Fernandes this week seems a trifle odd. And we have a rather low number of players earning 'defensive points' this week (although the top performers on this metric, Garner, Anderson, and Caicedo came through again): only 29, I think (4 of them from West Ham?!).

Unexpected results: Leeds's win over Forest on Friday night was not 'unexpected' in itself, though the ease of it, and the eventual margin of victory were; this was a game where the visiting team strangely failed to turn up.

A hell of a ding-dong between Newcastle and Brentford, with the home side ultimately very unlucky to lose it - as they got punished for Trippier going to sleep in the closing minutes.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' is again superlatively weird - with Palmer, Dalot, and Guimaraes (and, eventually, Haaland...) the only members so far that anybody owns! It was also shaping up to be yet another dismally low gameweek average, but a good haul from Haaland in the final game dragged it up to a respectable 57 points. Both of Chelsea's penalty awards were pretty soft, and the penalties for each side in the thrilling Newcastle v Brentford encounter both looked unjust, while Salah may have been a tad unlucky to miss out on being given one at Anfield. There were a couple of other potential penalties that should have been looked at by VAR, but seemed not to be. Although an uncommonly good weekend for the refereeing, there have been enough other odd events already this weekend to make it this time at least a 5 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.