The 'TEMPLATE' - who's in it, and who ought to be in it?

 

I dislike the notion of a 'template' in FPL. It is generally imagined to be a fairly rigid set, a small set - perhaps just 11 players - that everybody owns. In fact, of course, there are rarely more than 2 or 3 players with an ownership level above 50%. In times of 'most template', you typically find that most reasonably sensible managers have 5 or 6 players in common, occasionally even 7 or 8 - but rarely any more than that. 

And, crucially, though naive FPL managers easily convince themselves, from having noticed so many 'similar teams', that these are the same 6, 7, 8 players owned by everyone, this is almost never the case. What you see is that most good managers have 6, 7, 8 players from a common pool of perhaps 25-30 most outstanding picks at any given time.

This season may be a little unusual so far, in that we have had quite a few players who are really making a case to be considered 'essential' (most of the time, it's no more than 2 or 3, and occasionally ZERO...), and we've generally had 9 or 10 players with an ownership above 30% - which is very high (again, we don't often see quite that many players so widely owned).

So, there is a slightly narrower template than usual at the moment; but it's not a straitjacket - there is still a lot of scope for differentiation.

And the problem with the template - as I've pointed out before in relation to copying the teams of the league leaders - is that it's an aggregate of what's worked so far, not a shrewd prediction of what's going to work best from now on. Many of the most popular picks have exhausted their rich vein of form - and are waiting to be moved out of squads. And many.... were sentimental, over-optimistic, misguided selections in the first place.

So, what does 'THE TEMPLATE' look like at the moment? And what should it really look like??

David Raya and Konstantinos Tzolakis are leading the goalkeeper rankings at the moment, but only fairly narrowly; and they have both benefitted from a penalty save (which gives a rather over-generous 5 additional FPL points, and usually earns an extra bonus point or two as well!), which is a once-or-twice-a-season freak (and Raya's penalty was clearly wrongly awarded!), and should really be discounted from a fair comparative assessment. Hence, Bart Verbruggen is actually the best keeper at the moment. 

Raya might outscore Verbruggen over the season, if he can rack up a huge number of clean sheets again, as he did last year (although Arsenal are so far looking much less cohesive than they did last season, and don't seem likely to be such a dominant force); but because of the huge price differential, he really needs to score 30-35% more points than Verbruggen (and the other 4.5-million-pound keepers), and I am very confident that that is not going to happen. I've said a number of times over the past couple of seasons that Raya has become the classic instance of that most basic of FPL errors, imagining that the 'best player' in a given position must necessarily be the best FPL pick. In fact, that is such a dangerous - and widespread - naivety that I have identified it as one of the key markers of a bad FPL manager.

Though a case can of course be made for Tzolakis (though you fear that Hull's hot start may be losing momentum, and a promoted side - however robust and plucky - is always likely to take a bit of a pasting from the stronger clubs), and Kelleher and Suzuki are also looking promising, Jamie Trafford, a solid 4th in the goalkeeper rankings so far, has the advantage of playing behind a very capable Leeds defence, and enjoys an exceptionally kind rotation with Verbruggen (you don't have to play either of them against a 'top four' side until January!); in fact, an optimal rotation of that pair has so far yielded 48 points - comfortably more than Raya!! And yet.... Jamie Trafford is owned by less than 6% in FPL (people were perhaps put off by his slightly high 5.0-million price-tag, and by the fact that he hadn't played a full season in the EPL before; they should be reconsidering now).

But the goalkeeper category contains some other anomalies too. Pickford is close to 10%-owned, but hasn't really looked worth it so far (people are backing him because he's consistently been one of the best - if not the best - FPL keepers for the last few seasons; but this year there are clearly better options, and, for me, he is priced-out at 5.5-million; even if he does top the rankings again, it won't be by enough of a margin to justify paying all that extra money for him; at 5.0-million he'd be a very compelling contender, but at 5.5-million - no). Lammens and Donnarumma are also up close to 10%, presumably just because of club loyalty (it's ridiculous that they are more popular picks than the obviously superior Kelleher and Trafford). 

Dubravka and Kinsky are above 15%. Dubravka is obviously just a cost-cutting measure (he's probably the best 4.0-million-pound keeper, but isn't anywhere near to getting a start); and that sort of pick is a dangerous, usually self-harming false economy. Kinsky might have been picked initially just because he paired with Dubravka (if he gets injured or dropped, at least you have automatic back-up from his deputy at the club); and more recently, some potentially softer fixtures for Spurs have encouraged some people to gamble on more of their players. But it is a gamble that doesn't seem justified: Spurs are still not playing well, and Kinsky has been in conspicuously poor form so far. This pair are part of the 'template' pool - but they shouldn't be.

So, among the goalkeepers, Raya is a misguided 'template' inclusion; and Kinsky/Dubravka is looking like an epic foot-shooting. Meanwhile, Trafford is being foolishly overlooked. Happily, Verbruggen's worth has been fairly widely recognised.

In defence, Riccardo Calafiori and Maxim De Cuyper are justifiably part of the 'template', and pretty close to essential - thus far. Curiously, although the Belgian has the higher points total so far, he's still well behind Calafiori in ownership, at barely 40% compared to 54%. This can perhaps be explained by Arsenal's reputation, consolidated in their remarkable season last year, as a uniquely dominant defensive powerhouse; but so far this season, Brighton have looked at least as good, if not a little better. However, I still have the misgiving that Brighton have freakishly over-performed thus far (helped by the fact that they have mostly played very weak teams so far; and even two of the better teams they faced, Villa in GW1 and Arsenal in GW5, completely failed to show up in those games!), and with a potentially tough little run of fixtures from GW8 to GW11, I would expect returns for their players to tail off a bit. De Cuyper, in fact, has massively exceeded any reasonable expectation for his returns from this opening sequence of fixtures, and it actually wouldn't have been too unreasonable to hold off acquiring him - if you hadn't (as I'd recommended) included him in your initial squad.

There are, however, 3 other defenders with ownership currently above 20% who can also be considered 'template' - but with much less reason: Josko Gvardiol, Gabriel, and Lewis Hall. I might add Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa (both near 18%), and Virgil Van Dijk (above 15%) to that list too. Everton's relentless 'defcon' monster James Tarkowski, who's actually now the third highest-returning defender, having edged ahead of Calafiori this week, but still only the sixth most-owned (at 18.5%), is really the only one of this 'fringe group' of popular picks who properly ought to be considered a must-have 'template' pick at the moment.

Gabriel, as I explained at the start of the season, is just priced-out this year: he obviously wasn't going to repeat the huge returns he got last season, and even if he had, he wouldn't have had a clear enough advantage over his Arsenal teammates, let alone the whole of the rest of the defender category, to justify that ridiculous 8-million-pound asking-price. As with David Raya, even if he were the top points-producer in his position, he still wouldn't be a good FPL pick because of this extreme pricing. He'd really need to be the top defender by some distance to justify selection; and he's had a fairly ho-hum season so far, is barely scraping into the Top 10 defenders - miles behind De Cuyper, Tarkowski, and Calafiori.

Gvardiol has been buoyed by a run of assists; but we were just reminded this weekend that he's still not guaranteed an invariable start - possibly sharing minutes with Guehi in central defence and O'Reilly at left-back. There are similar misgivings about Guehi, who's returned fairly good points so far, but has actually looked in rather poor form in the last few games. These are players who've been widely bought because of their performances in the past, or because of the mystique of City; but City's defensive form early in the season just hasn't looked good enough to make them preferable picks over Arsenal or Brighton players.

Dangerous as Lewis Hall can be going forward, Newcastle's form is so flakey at the moment that he looks likely to concede far too many goals to be a reliable FPL defensive asset. Ezri Konsa was a big gamble that's kind of paying off (it wasn't at all clear when he arrived at his new club that he would get an immediate start, or an invariable one; and but for the fortuitously-timed injury to Christhian Mosquera, he might not have...). But I still don't think Arsenal are looking dominant enough yet this season to be doubled-up on their defence, and I don't like limiting my options to choose others of their players further forward (no-one else is really looking worth having at the moment; but that may change); and I'm not convinced Konsa is the best defensive option at 4.5-million (particularly given that he's almost certain to return to the bench once Saliba's fit again). And Van Dijk's selection by anyone was pure sentiment: he didn't have a great year last year (his good FPL returns were very anomalous, and more than a bit lucky, not at all an accurate reflection of his actual form), he's aging out and slowing down; and Liverpool were bound to face problems bouncing back from their fairly disastrous second year under Slot, and getting used to a very different new style of play under Iraola. Paying 6.5-million for any defender is tough to justify; paying it for one who can't even break into the Top 20 is absurd.

This year, Hull, Leeds, and Brighton have surprised everyone with how consistently impressive their defences have been. Hull's back-line were all priced at just 4.0-million (such a bargain, and they were so good in the opening games - it really was worth considering doubling-up on them!), Leeds's men all at 4.5, and Brighton's mostly at 4.5 or 5.0. Everton's defence also offer some very reasonably-priced alternatives/additions to Tarkowski. This is where the template breaks down: there's really not much to choose between most of these players, and so there's a broad spread of possible selections among them, and only Hull's Femi Ajayi has climbed above 10% ownership. (Strangely, Coventry's Bobby Thomas and Ipswich's Issa Diop were two of the most popular 4.0 defender picks at the start of the season, and although their teams rapidly proved to be extremely vulnerable defensively, many owners have stuck with them - presumably as rarely-used 5th-choice options - keeping their ownership level up close to 10%.)  These bargain options have looked so good so far that, really, everyone should have at least 2, perhaps even 3 of these cheaper players from Hull and Leeds - to free up more budget to spend in midfield. 

But because there's less consensus over these picks, the most popular 'template' picks are dominated instead by slightly eccentric 'fringe' options for the first 2 or 3 slots in defence. Nobody should have Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, Van Dijk; everybody should have Bogle (or Justin/Gudmundsson/Muharemovic) and Ajayi (or Mendy/Egan/Giles).

And Dunk, Kadioglu, and - most especially - Luka Vuskovic (currently the 2nd highest scoring defender!) are presumably being spurned only because there are so many other Brighton players vying for our attention at the moment (everybody wants Gross, everybody wants De Cuyper, an awful lot want Verbruggen, quite a few covet Kostoulas...).

Thus, in the defender category, I would say that Gabriel, Konsa, Guehi, Hall, and - especially - Van Dijk are ridiculously over-owned; but Bogle, Vuskovic, and any of the Hull back-line are shamefully under-owned. Calafiori, De Cuyper, and Tarkowski deservedly enjoy 'template' standing.

In midfield, only Pascal Gross has clearly staked a claim to being considered 'essential'. He's started every game (which might have seemed doubtful before the start of the season, because of his age; that made me hold off trying him out initially), he's on most of the set-pieces, and he's on penalties again for them (again, surprisingly, given that they have so many other potential penalty-takers); he's been consistently excellent for Brighton so far - and is way out in front of the other midfielders after 7 games.

It is another odd little aberration that Morgan Rogers actually has a few percent higher ownership than Gross! Chelsea started so hot that a lot of people were tempted to go for a treble-up on Rogers, Palmer, and Joao Pedro. I counselled at the time that this was probably unwise, and also ventured that if only taking one of their midfielders, Cole Palmer should probably get the nod, because he has historically been much more consistent than Rogers, and has the theoretical advantage of taking the penalties. (He is also more central to their creative play, and so should be considerably more likely to earn assists. I think he's been very unlucky so far: he's set up great chances for Rogers, Joao Pedro, and Neto, which his teammates have spurned, had quite a few very near-misses of his own, and he hasn't yet had a single penalty - surely must be due one soon!) Pedro Neto probably shouldn't be overlooked either. The fact that Chelsea have 3 strong contenders to choose from in their midfield, and no obvious or overwhelming distinction between them... should mean that none of them are such massively popular picks that they muscle their way into the 'template'. Rogers doesn't clearly deserve to be in that position of eminence; and I suspect he won't remain there for long.

It's a similar story at City, where Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo (alas, now ruled out with a medium-term injury), Illiman Ndiaye, Phil Foden, and the just-back-from-injury Jeremy Doku 'split the vote' as to which of them you should choose (and cause some anxiety about limited minutes/unexpected rotations). Again, there's a great overlooked option here in Enzo Fernandez, who seems to be such a Maresca favourite that he will start almost every game, and might well produce just as many attacking contributions as his more eye-catching teammates. So far, only Cherki is up at the top of the most-owned board, with 37.5%; and that might soon start to collapse, after he was dropped from last Saturday's game. 

The more major oddity in the FPL midfield, though, is the continuing prominence of Bruno Fernandes - who, until this weekend, was still above 30% ownership. I said at the start of the season that, as with Gabriel, he couldn't possibly justify his 12-million-pound price-tag even if he were again the top returner in his position (which didn't seem likely). His insane initial ownership level of around 45% could only be explained by sentiment, since cold mathematical logic mandated his omission. And you suspect that his ownership now only remains so high, after weeks of producing nothing, because of a combination of stubborn optimism from those sentimentalists.... with maybe a substantial admixture of people who've just got disillusioned and already quit the game!!

Another Manchester United man whose ownership has held up rather stronger than deserved is Bryan Mbeumo, still a little above 20%; a goal this weekend has edged him back very slightly ahead of the pack, but he's really no better than Rogers, Palmer, Saka, Semenyo or any of the other City midfield options, or Hull's recently hot winger Mohammed Belloumi. He's constantly getting shunted to and fro between centre-forward (a position he doesn't really relish) and the wing, is missing loads of good chances, and just doesn't look very happy in his football at the moment. He's a player I like a lot, but he has performed well below expectations at United so far, and I don't yet see signs of that changing.

It's odd that Saka (17%) and Odegaard (nearly 19%) are still so popular; they did look very hot at the start of the season, but they and Arsenal seem to have gone off the boil in the last few games, and a major sell-off is getting under way. But given their obvious potential, and the positive signs we saw from them in some of the early games, it's not so unreasonable to keep the faith in them awhile. Declan Rice's 11.1% ownership rate is completely unfathomable! That must be just pure sentiment again, an undue reverence for what he produced last season (without giving thought to the fact that the majority of that output came from supplying the ammunition for the trademark melee set-pieces which produced so many of their goals last year, but were obviously not going to be nearly so much of a thing this time around). Dominik Szoboszlai (7th most owned with nearly 20%) is a player that I love; but, alas, while playing in a central pivot role, he's just not likely to produce enough points to make him an interesting acquisition in FPL. Likewise, I think Morgan Gibbs-White is a fantastic player (11.5% owned, and it was more until his recent injury), but... things just haven't really clicked for him or Forest yet; and even if they had, it's going to be very difficult for him to justify his 8-million tag this year.

Kevin Schade (though ruled out with a short-term injury at the moment), Brentford's free-scoring forward-classified-as-a-midfielder, really ought to be far more popular; his ownership peaked at around 17% - which, for the 4th best midfield points-producer at the time, is crazily low. Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier - the 3rd highest points-producer but the 15th most-owned! - is also shamefully under-represented in FPL selections. People are being very slow to cotton on to Villa's Johan Manzambi (although a slight worry about a calf-strain might be holding some folks back from buying him this week). Cody Gakpo was looking Liverpool's most dangerous attacking player, but suffered quite a sell-off after he suffered an ankle knock playing for Holland a couple of weeks back; his peak ownership was only around 12.5%, low for someone who'd been in such sharp form; and for a minor injury like that, people really could have hung on to him on the bench for a week or two.

Among the midfielders, then, I feel that Rogers, while a justifiable pick, is significantly over-owned, while Bruno Fernandes should not be in anyone's squad at his price-point, and Saka, Odegaard, Mbeumo, Szoboszlai, and Rice are probably way over-owned. 

Schade, Manzambi, Tavernier, and Gakpo, on the other hand, are disgracefully under-owned. But Gross and perhaps Cherki are the only players who've earned 'template' status so far.

Up front, things are rather more straightforward. Erling Haaland has enjoyed his traditional white-hot start to the season, and it has seemed pretty much impossible to do without him. Well, except that Joao Pedro and Alexander Isak have also looked in very good form - possibly even good enough to rival Haaland all season and sneak the Golden Boot out of his clutches, certainly good enough to present a reasonable cheaper alternative to him that would allow you to spread a lot of extra money around the squad. The reason why that probably hasn't been working out so far is that few of the high-priced players (Fernandes, Saka, Mbeumo...., Gabriel, Van Dijk....) have been producing much, while there have been some great contributions from a lot of much cheaper players; so, thus far, there's really been no budget pressure, no opportunity to improve returns by spending big in other areas of the pitch! 

Moreover, most no-Haaland teams I've seen seem to be taking either Joao Pedro or Isak; I think you really need to have both - none of the other forwards are close to their potential. People have been more sceptical about Isak because of Liverpool's unconvincing team form so far = but he is basically neck-and-neck with Joao Pedro. Some managers have gone for all three; but I think that's a rash use of budget - although it might become a viable option if we continue to get few big contributions from midfield. At the moment, though, Palmer, Rogers, Mbeumo, Cunha, Cherki (and Semenyo, though now injured; and Doku and Ndiaye), and Gross and Tavernier and Schade and Manzambi and Belloumi... are all threatening to outscore Isak, mostly for a lot less money.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been by far the most popular 3rd-forward pick early in the season, with an ownership of around 23.5%. However, Charalampos Kostoulas, Nico Jackson, and Evanilson have also recently been attracting some attention as possible alternatives.

So, in the forward-line, Haaland and Joao Pedro have been almost universally adopted as 'essential' in the early part of the season, with Calvert-Lewin being the most popular third-seat choice - but possibly about to be displaced by other claimants. Alexander Isak is so far extremely under-owned, a strong alternative to Joao Pedro (or Haaland?!).

The supposed 'TEMPLATE' is not just 10 or 15 players; it's currently a pool of at least 35 'most popular' players that the vast majority of selections are drawn from. And over a third of those most popular choices at the moment are very bad picks.

Dear FPL, please FIX this!

FPL's 'Player Info' pop-up - no longer available on the 'Transfers' page??!!

Every single bloody year. the FPL Gnomes seem to think up a new way to make their crappy bloody website (and presumably also the mobile app version of the game - although I never use that) even worse. Perhaps we should be grateful that (as far as I've yet noticed) they've only fucked up one new thing so far this year. But it is a pretty big thing.

You can no longer click on a player to cue their 'Full Profile' stats pop-up screen on the 'Transfers' page - which is the one page where you're invariably likely to want to use it. (You can, as in the screenshot here, still access the Profile information for players already in your squad; but not for those you might be considering transferring in!!)

At the beginning of last season, they suddenly decided to remove match scores from the listed data for the current season; again, pretty basic, very important, and an unfathomable omission. But at least they seemed to repent of that idiocy and restored that information somewhere around mid-season.

So, maybe if we all complain loudly enough, the Lords of FPL Towers might take note and do something about rectifying this latest aberration?? Fingers crossed!!!

Try to bother them at this address: fpl@ismgames.com

And then, if they do fix this latest self-created problem, maybe they might start thinking about finally revamping that whole 'Profile' pop-up idea from the ground up. It is absolutely bloody crazy to have it in a pop-screen at all, to cram the display into such a small sub-window, and to make the information only accessible via an array of super-fiddly slider bars.... (I have complained about this before.)

That time of year again - Monday Music Break No. 8

It is my birthday... imminently. As the accumulated number of years grows larger, I find it harder to rejoice in the nearer approach of oblivion. But I do my best.

This little bit of manic silliness usually helps. John Otway has been one of the great joys of my life. I discovered him during my student days, and have been to see him live probably three or four dozen times at least. He's now celebrated as something of a national treasure in England, although his acclaim has grown through 'cult status' rather than any mainstream success: he is the quintessential pub performer - having played thousands of small gigs in the upstairs rooms of music pubs all over the country across five decades. 

I gather he is still performing; though I would hope that, at his age (he just turned 74 at the start of this month), he has toned down his stage antics a little. His shows used to be extremely physical (one regular highlight being him building a teetering tower of plastic beer crates at the side of the stage, then climbing to the top and launching himself off it into a flying forward-roll across the floor of the stage), and I would fear for his health if he was still throwing his body around like that.

This is Birthday Boy, from Way & Bar, his early album in collaboration with long-time friend 'Wild' Willy Barrett (in theory, I still own a copy of this, the original 1980 vinyl release - though it has been lodged in a friend's attic for the past 20-odd years, so might have succumbed to the ravages of time by now). It is a good representation of the great man's work, capturing his punkish energy and irresistible good humour. Though in fact his original compositions are fairly few, and his live shows have always been dominated by his quirky repertoire of covers (he once did an entire album of Tom Jones songs): Bowie's Space Oddity rendered in a thick Yorkshire accent ("Ey-up, Planet Earth's blue, An' there's nowt ah can do...."), the American Civil War song Two Little Boys somehow rediscovering a poignancy that most recordings of it miss, and House of the Rising Sun devolving into a raucous call-and-response, as Otway repeatedly feigns forgetting the words, pausing mid-line for audience members to prompt the next lyric by shouting facetious questions ("My mother.... was a tailor...." "Oh, well, that's nice. But what did she ever do for you?"  "Well, she sewed my new blue jeans..." "And what about yer dad??").

Memories of Otway shows are one of my happy places. I need those this week.

Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 7

 

I'm continuing with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

Red cards awarded: Ryan Sessegnon's late sending-off for his foul on Robinio Vaz was extremely harsh. The challenge did look a bit petulant, flicking out a leg in an attempt to trip the opponent; and his studs did briefly rake against his Achilles tendon; but the contact was absolutely minimal, there was no force or violence in it. Barely even a yellow-card offence, for me.

Red cards not awarded: Everton's Harrison's Armstrong was a little lucky to receive only a yellow card when he went flying in on Josh Acheampong early in the game. He got a little of the ball, but the challenge was two-footed, out-of-control, and he swept the opponent's legs with his trailing leg as he slid through - could have been a leg-breaker.

Sven Botman definitely should have been sent off for his wild scissor-challenge on Jackson. It is unbelievable that VAR didn't at least recommend that incident for a second look by Jarred Gillett.

Penalties awarded: 

Penalties not awarded: 

Tight/dubious offsides:  

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Marmoush did put his hand in Van Ewijk's face as he held him off to take the shot that put Spurs back in the lead on Monday night. A tough call: it would have seemed a very soft offence to disallow a goal for - but we do very commonly see decisions like that given.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: Isak and Szoboszlai were unexpectedly ready to return to action from the start at Brentford. Araujo was mysteriously replaced by Frimpong at half-time; but Frimpong himself went down with a muscle injury after only 5 minutes or so, and had to be replaced by Ngumoha.

Ryan Giles was surprisingly replaced by Brooke Norton-Cuffy in Hull's starting line-up.

We saw the return of 'Pep Roulette' big time at the Etihad on Saturday, with Maresca suddenly resting Gvardiol, Anderson, Fernandez, Cherki, and Semenyo - in favour of O'Reilly, Bouaddi, Kovacic, Foden, and Doku (it is nice to have such 'back-up' available!). Gvardiol did come on for O'Reilly - seconds after the hour mark.

Carrick dropped Matheus Cunha - regularly a liability in his defensive duties - for the Leeds game, and used a variant of the tactic he'd tried midweek against Atleti, deploying Tielemans as a nominal '10' to allow Fernandes more freedom to drift wide or deep looking for space.

Bruno Guimaraes and Ebere Eze were slightly unexpected starters for Arsenal (though injuries to Zubimendi and Tzolis move them up the pecking-order).

Near misses: Just before half-time, Caicedo thumped a tremendous volley against the angle of post and bar.

In the closing minutes, Barcola curled a good effort against the face of the bar.

Ndiaye smashed a close-range effort against the crossbar late in the game (having been set up by a Haaland header; the folks who triple-captained the big Viking were miffed that he missed out on an assist to accompany his brace... and even more miffed when he volleyed home a third goal moments later, only to see it ruled out for an offside by Enzo Fernandez). In the dying minutes, Ndiaye had a cross-shot from an acute angle tipped away by Walton, and just moments later was played in again by Haaland, but saw his shot flash inches wide of the post.

Emi Buendia smacked a firm shot against the face of the post, and the rebound nearly went in off Hornicek's back. 

Brighton could easily have claimed an even bigger win over dreadful Palace: Charalampos Kostoulas flashed a 20-yard shot inches wide of the post on the first break of the second-half.

The best chance of a drab game at Forest came when Murillo burst into the visitors' box late on and cracked a shot just beyond the far corner.

Big misses/big saves: Thierno Barry added to his catalogue of costly misses when Grealish's perfect chipped cross found him unmarked in the middle, 7 yards out - and he planted his header straight into Martinez's midriff. If Everton had taken the lead midway through the first half, a misfiring Chelsea might have found it difficult to come back. Late in the game, Chelsea enjoyed a three-on-two break and Palmer played in Joao Pedro - who shot straight at Pickford.

Barcola had an early one-on-one break after a mistake by Janelt, but chipped his effort wide of the post.

Josh King's firm cross-shot took a slight deflection off a defender's shin and needed a fine reaction save from Tzolakis with his leg. A few moments later, the Fulham youngster had an even better chance, but played in with an open goal he shot straight at the Greek keeper. Tzolakis almost had to make a sharp save from Iwobi.

A cracking 25-yard drive from Ruben Dias was well palmed away by Christian Walton early in the game at The Etihad.

In the second-half on Tyneside, Botman, who really shouldn't have been still on the pitch, smashed a ferocious shot goalwards - well saved by Suzuki. Late on, Hornicek made a sharp save from substitute Ross Barkley's low shot from just outside the box.

A fierce 20-yard drive from Kadioglu was tipped over by Benitez (Gross might have had another assist...). Mateta was presented with an open goal from 7 or 8 yards, but scooped his effort against the crossbar. Shortly afterwards, Lerma's far-post header from a Wharton corner grazed the outside of the upright - nothing was dropping for poor Palace on Sunday.

A sweet cross from Tielemans gave Mbeumo a free header from 10 yards out - but he put his effort miles off target; though he made amends a few moments later, sliding in to prod home another Tielemans ball from the edge of the six-yard box.

A good period of early pressure from Coventry culminated in a fierce shot from Sakamoto that was blocked by Van Hecke with his forehead. A good chance fell to Tonali 15 yards out, after some sloppy Coventry defending early in the second-half - but he blazed his effort miles over the bar.

Outstanding goals:  Diego Gomez claimed 'Goal of the Weekend' (and possibly of 'The Month'!) by driving the ball home from the half-way line after he spotted the hapless Walter Benitez off his line.

James Maddison's sweet strike from the edge of the box was probably the best goal of the gameweek - though very much against the run of play. Marmoush's wasn't bad either; although there was some doubt as to whether it should have stood.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: The thus-far nearly flawless Konstantinos Tzolakis really should not have let Iwobi's deflected shot squirm through his hands at the foot of his near-post.

Omar Alderete's careless back-pass played in Evanilson to claim a second goal early in the second-half; but for that, Sunderland had been looking like they could hang on to a narrow defeat, and perhaps even nick back a point.

Antonin Kinsky flapped lamely at Jack Rudoni's shot and actually helped it into the net. He's still looking a very unconvincing presence in the Spurs goal. Carl Rushworth probably should have kept out Ben Davies's injury-time third goal too: it came through players' legs and was slightly mishit, so a little difficult to judge - but well within his reach, and not powerfully struck.

Bad luck/good luck: 

FPL weirdness: Yet again I find myself ruing the fact that dummies get no recognition in the game. Palmer really deserved an 'assist' for Neto's first goal!

How did Alex Iwobi get the credit for Fulham's solitary goal?? His shot was clearly off-target, until it deflected off Lucas Herrington's midriff. Madueke's goal on Sunday might also have been questionable; but it was at least nearly on-target, rather than miles off, as Iwobi's had been.

And how the fuck did David Raya earn 3 bonus points?? He didn't even get any 'saves' points in that game! There is something very, very dodgy about this.

Unexpected results: Saturday's games all went much as expected; although Ipswich gave City a bit more of a fight than most anticipated; Chelsea, though miles off their best, were still able to overcome a similarly lacklustre Everton; and Fulham, though somewhat improved, were fortunate to meet an uncharacteristically flat Hull side, who produced their weakest performance of the season. Arsenal were pretty dreadful, but Forest without Gibbs-White are utterly toothless, and the visitors were eventually able to prevail - in the weekend's dullest game. Sunderland might have put up a better fight against Bournemouth if they hadn't been reduced to 10 by Danso's sending-off so early in the game. After recent struggles, Manchester United were perhaps grateful, relieved to get an away point at Leeds. Spurs's late third goal really flattered them; Coventry had looked well on top in the opening period; Maddison's opener came out of nothing, and Marmoush's second was mildly controversial - a draw really would have been a fairer result on the balance of play.

The 'Team of the Week', after Saturday's games, included absolutely no-one, apart from Haaland, who's very widely-owned (Isak was jettisoned by more than 500,000 more managers this week, bringing his ownership down below 12%; and probably not many of those started him, as he hadn't been expected to be ready for a return to a first-team start yet); and only David Raya was added on Sunday (though probably more people should own Manzambi and Neto; and perhaps also Kostoulas and Evanilson!). The global average crept up to a respectable but far from earth-shattering 56 points. Monday night's match didn't have much further impact on the overall points landscape, as very few Spurs or Coventry players have more than 1% ownership, and only Kinsky, van Hecke, Thomas and van Ewijk are above 5%. At least there have been no really outrageous refereeing cock-ups this week (although I think Botman and Armstrong should have been sent off, and Sessegnon shouldn't), so it's a very modest 2 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.

Dilemmas of the Week - GW7 (26/27)

There have been quite a few further injuries this week - although, thankfully, not many to 'major' FPL assets.

For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

The Fantasy Premier League site itself now has a 'Player Availability' page (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.

I've recently discovered this additional resource, the weekly Predicted Lineups from Fantasy Football Edits. My longtime standby for this sort of news, Fantasy Footall Scout, does usually provide some explanatory commentary on its predictions, even including reminders of the key injury concerns, and sometimes also some discussion of possible alternate selections; so, if you like a bit more detail with your 'probable lineups' for the week, that could still be the preferable roundup to look at. But because FPL Edits is so stripped-down, it's rather more straightforwardly accessible, easier to scan through quickly; and I think it's also perhaps a tad more reliable with its expected formations and lineups, and a little quicker to update.

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 7?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

Piero Hincapie and Martin Zubimendi apparently both picked up ankle problems just ahead of the midweek Champions League game against Lille (although neither of them seemed likely to get many Premier League minutes at the moment anyway).

Villa's new left-back Matteo Ruggeri had to come off against Brentford last week, and apparently has a moderately serious hamstring strain that could keep him out for a month or so. With Ian Maatsen still out with an ankle problem, Aaron Wan-Bissaka will presumably have to switch sides to cover for him. Ross Barkley, getting a rare start against Fenerbahce in midweek, had to come off with a knock, and looks likely to be sidelined for a week or so.

Jannik Schuster and Kevin Schade both had to come off against Villa last week, the former with an aggravation of a longstanding niggle in his ankle and the latter with a shoulder injury; both are doubtful starters for this week - Schade obviously the bigger problem for FPL, since he'd been the 9nth most popular midfielder with nearly 17% ownership.

Pascal Struijk managed to get his sending-off against Sunderland overturned, but pulled a hamstring in training this week.

Jarrad Branthwaite is struggling with a dead leg picked up against Hull last week.

Hull defender Nobel Mendy has picked up a groin strain and is set to be out for a couple of weeks.

Dominik Szoboszlai was a late drop-out from the City game last week with a sore hamstring.

Kobbie Mainoo missed the midweek game against Atleti after picking up a knock in training.

Igor Jesus has picked up a calf strain which is expected to keep him out for a few weeks; it will be interesting to see if Liam Delap can now make any impact with a regular guaranteed start. Morgan Gibbs-White is also a doubt this week after picking up a muscle strain against Palace last Sunday.

Wilson Isidor has picked up a knock during the week - although Brian Brobbey might be ready to return in his stead. Veteran Belgian full-back Thomas Meunier, outstanding against Brighton last week, had to come off in that game with a hamstring strain.

Enzo Maresca made an alarming comment this week about Erling Haaland needing a rest 'soon'. That might be just 'mind-games'; and you suspect that 'soon' might mean next week's Champions League clash against relatively un-scary AEK... But still, it's a worry - especially for all those (possibly some millions??) who'd been planning to use their Triple Captain chip on him this weekend.

Do we have any players who are dropped, suspended, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Rodrigo Bentancur is beginning a three-match ban for his 'headbutt' on Luke Shaw last week. Axel Disasi is serving the last part of his three-match ban this weekend. Ryan Gravenberch misses this week after receiving two yellow cards against City last Sunday.

Pascal Struijk managed to get last week's 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' red card overturned (the review panel accepting the argument that the through-ball to Isidor was running past him too fast for him to have retained possession - a little bit of a 50/50 proposition, for me) - but is now injured anyway.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

I warned last week against the crazy enthusiasm for Fulham having supposedly 'easy' fixtures against the promoted clubs (who've all looked much better than Fulham so far this season!); and some FPL managers are already repenting after their defeat by Ipswich last week. 65,000 have baled on their toothless striker, Goncalo Garcia, while between 10,000 and 20,000 have jettisoned their next most popular picks, Josh King, Antonee Robinson, Timothy Castagne, and Bernd Leno (I would have thought it would have been more, far more).

Liverpool are still looking terribly flakey under Iraola (a comfortable Champions League win against LASK in midweek counts for nothing), and while Isak, Gakpo, Ekitike, and Szoboszlai are missing - I wouldn't go near any of the rest of them.

A lot of folks online are making a case for Spurs now, particularly Solanke and Savio - surely they're just having a laugh???

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Johan Manzambi had another good game for Villa last week, and Nico Jackson is starting to look like a strong contender for the 3rd forward spot. However, Coventry's Guinean youngster (he doesn't turn 20 for another couple of months!), Sidiki Cherif, was outstanding last week, and could be an interesting budget option up-front at just 5.0-million pounds. Of course, the surprise standout of last weekend was Jordan Henderson (most of us didn't even know he'd recovered from his broken wrist, and didn't think he'd be likely to get anywhere near a start anyway...); with Reece James now ruled out for at least 3 months after a knee surgery, and the perpetually injured Romeo Lavia seemingly not trusted, Henderson could in fact be in for an extended run in the side; and at only 4.9-million, he could tempt many as a 'budget-enabler' (although I always feel you shouldn't scrimp like that on your crucial 5th midfielder; it doesn't seem likely that he'll be producing goals every week... but who knows?). Around 60,000 have piled in for him already.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

Another 'Triple Captain' temptation

 

This week's major talking-point in FPL-land seems to be whether to punt the first Triple Captain chip on Erling Haaland this weekend.

Well, I say 'talking-point'; but in fact, there's been next-to-zero actual discussion or rumination on the issue. Most people on the forums are just exultantly announcing that they're going to do it.

Of course, there's a strong case for it. Promoted sides are almost always among the League's most vulnerable, especially early in the season; and Ipswich have looked pretty porous at the back so far. And Haaland is obviously a prime candidate for the Triple Captain chip - one of the few players who reliably returns multiple double-digit hauls each season, and can usually be depended on to come up with at least something against weaker opponents.

But the case against: Ipswich have shown signs of improvement over the last few games (in particular, Christian Walton looks a lot more formidable in goal than the error-prone Kjell Scherpen, who he's replaced in the last two games - in which they've conceded only a single goal each time [although, admittedly, against rather poor opponents]); they also offer quite a lot of attacking threat through players like Enciso, Fatawu, and Davis (I'd still fancy City for the win; but it might not necessarily be all that comfortable for them...). Haaland might be a bit tired after the gruelling game against PSG in midweek; and you'd imagine he'll certainly be taken off quite early, if City can get the game safely in the bag. So, this fixture really doesn't look like an absolute gimme for a big haul, either for City or for Haaland.

But, as always, the major concern with a decision like this should be opportunity cost - are you missing out on stronger options for the chip later by committing to using it now?

Although Haaland is just about unique among our current crop of players in the number of big hauls he produces each season,... at the moment, Joao Pedro is also in extraordinary form for Chelsea (and is actually looking like he could wrest the Golden Boot from the Norwegian this season). And Chelsea under Xabi Alonso have looked so free-scoring so far that you fancy them to be able to net multiple times against just about anyone; whereas City, still getting used to Enzo Maresca, are often misfiring a bit in their attack.

Moreover, midfielders get more points than forwards for the same attacking contribution; and there are a fair few of them who - at least occasionally - also bag multiple goals in a game. Bruno Fernandes, of course, has already done so this season (in what might well prove to be the season's highest gameweek total), and Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka have proven that they are capable of it as well; we might now add Jeremy Doku, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, and Morgan Rogers to that list. So.... Haaland isn't the only candidate to use the chip on.

And Ipswich probably aren't the weakest opponent to target. Forest and Palace have so far looked at least as bad, if not a bit worse in the last few games; Spurs have looked much, much worse (though you feel they must have the potential for a massive improvement sooner or later); and Fulham have looked pretty dreadful too.

So, Haaland against Forest in GW10 or Fulham in GW11 (the other side of the second international break, alas; so, there are elevated doubts about form and fitness after that interruption) are credible alternatives to Ipswich this week.

And Joao Pedro (or Palmer or Rogers) against Spurs next week or against Palace at the start of December might be even more tempting.

Those who love the thrill of a wild gamble might even try their luck on Saka against Forest this weekend! [Ha! Well, I think Saka will produce a few big hauls at some point; but Arsenal are strangely flat at the moment; starting Rice and Guimaraes in central midfield always seems to leave them lacking bite.]

Haaland is a good solution, but not the only one. You shouldn't make a decision like this without carefully weighing all the possible alternatives first. (And most FPL managers just don't seem to do that!)  

[Of course, this ultimately worked out very well for those - over 664,000 (one might have expected it to be far more; a lot of people were probably dissuaded at the last moment by Maresca's remarks in midweek about Haaland 'needing a rest' soon...) - who did plump for the Triple Captaincy on Haaland this week. But there's still a chance some of those other options I mentioned might work out even better - so, the smugness of this week's TC brigade might be premature!]

A little bit of Zen (116)

 

"Let us know the happiness time brings, not count the years."

Decimus Magnus Ausonius

Alas, poor Florian!

 

Adam Clery of ACFC has done a breakdown this week of where things are going wrong for Florian Wirtz at Liverpool at the moment.

It does rather seem as if things have got so bad that he might soon lose his start - and perhaps even be let go by the club in the January transfer window. I am very sorry to see this, since I am a great admirer of Wirtz's talent. We have seen often enough for Germany and at Leverkusen what an exceptional player he can be. Heck, we've even seen it occasionally at Liverpool: there was that brief spell from around November last year when he finally found his groove and was producing very good returns for several weeks - until he picked up another injury. And when he came back from that layoff, he never quite recaptured the magic again. Why not? It is a bit of a mystery.

I have suspected from time to time that he maybe just isn't quite physically robust enough - or 'brave' enough, or assertive enough - to prosper in the exceptionally intense environment of our Premier League; he doesn't seem to win many duels, and often gets dispossessed rather cheaply. But then, he does seem to be quick, strong, athletic, eager in the press; and the Bundesliga can be quite physical too. There may be something in this 'physical fragility' argument, but I don't think it's the whole story. Perhaps the pressure of the Anfield crowd, combined with the responsibility of being brought into the side as a successor to Salah, the intended creative linchpin around whom a new team would be built, was just too much for him. And of course it can't have helped that Slot's second season spiralled so badly out of control on so many fronts, with the dreadful results and the manager's deteriorating relationship with the departing Salah. But.... things seem to be even worse now under Iraola. He's lost all confidence and fluency; his decision-making seems to have deserted him; he doesn't appear to have any rapport with his teammates.

If Wirtz does 'fail' in our league, I feel that would be a very sad outcome to a move that promised so much. I said at the beginning of last season that, although I worried it might take him quite a while to settle in, I was confident that his class would eventually shine through. That's never really quite happened.

And I confess, I did have a punt on Wirtz in my initial squad this season. I felt that Liverpool might quickly turn the corner under Iraola, and I thought Wirtz, if he could rediscover that form he'd briefly shown in the middle of his debut season, would be their most valuable player for FPL. That was probably another instance of my recurring fault of taking a few too many chances in my initial selection,... and trusting too much in my admiration of raw talent. Rather too often, I'll have a little gamble on a player because I believe in their capacity for excellence... without waiting to see if they're actually showing signs of realising that capacity in the current season. Safe-and-steady is usually the way to go with initial squad picks - unless you want to start off the new campaign in the bottom half of the global rankings!!

So, is it all over for Florian? I do hope not. I suspect that, with a player of this class, with a player who's cost this much money, Iraola will have to persist with him for a bit longer. And maybe he's a shrewd enough coach to identify the player's problems - whether physical, or purely mental - and help him overcome them.

I imagine he's going to start for at least one more week, anyway - a fortuitous by-product of Ryan Gravenberch's sending-off against City last weekend. Gravenberch is now suspended for the next game against Brentford, which surely means that Szoboszlai will have to play in central midfield alongside Macallister. If Gravenberch had been available, there would have been an enormous temptation to deploy the Hungarian - consistently Liverpool's best and most dangerous-looking player in almost every single game - as the No. 10, instead of Wirtz. (And damn, yes, if that starts happening, Szoboszlai will immediately become a much more appealing FPL asset....)

We shall see.

Don't fritter away transfers!!

Following on from that last discussion about the relative unimportance of the 3rd forward slot in our FPL squads, it occurs to me that it is worth emphasising again how important transfers are - and how you should always resist using them impulsively, frivolously.

You shouldn't use a transfer unless you have a really pressing reason to do so (replacing someone who's injured, or acquiring someone who's come into some insanely hot form...). Just swapping out a player you're vaguely dissastisfied with is generally a wasteful use of a transfer.

And particularly since the rule-change a couple of years ago that has allowed us to store up to 5 Free Transfers at one time, the greater flexibility to make multiple changes at a time - to treat ourselves to perhaps several 'mini-Wildcard' rebuilds over a season - has made it enormously more valuable to roll transfers whenever possible.

Hence, the less important slots in your squad - the 5th defender and 3rd forward - are a negligible priority for a change. You really want to leave them untouched until you play a Wildcard.

If the only change you're tempted to make for the gameweek is to change one of those two players..... roll the transfer. And roll again the following gameweek, if you can. When you've got a few Free Transfers in hand, and if you really have no other higher priority changes to make, then... you can consider changing your 3rd forward or 5th defender. But most of the time, it's just not worth bothering with; leave them be.

Your 3rd forward might be the least important member of the squad

That's a 'controversial' assertion for many people. But it really shouldn't be. 

A lot of folks seem to get beguiled by the impression of 'more regular goals' that forwards seem to offer. But they forget that a) there aren't actually many forwards in the EPL these days who do produce 'regular goals', b) many of the strongest 'forward' prospects are actually classified in the game as 'midfielders', and c) midfielders can pick up so many more points than forwards (more points for each goal, the occasional 'free' extra point for a team clean sheet, and usually more likelihood of assists and bonus points too; and now, for some, also the occasional possibility of 'defensive points'): a good goalscoring midfielder will almost always outscore a forward - in FPL points - who has the same number of goals, or even a slightly higher number of goals.

In recent years - particularly over the last couple of seasons, when some of our biggest-returning midfielders have been lost to us (Salah, DeBruyne, Son, Jota, Olise, Bowen), and many others were wiped out for long spells by injuries - it's become increasingly common to start 3 forwards on a fairly regular basis. This is almost never a good idea.

If we glance at the current FPL points rankings, we see that only the outstanding Erling Haaland and Joao Pedro are up near the top of the pile (and even they're not currently in first place!). Admittedly Alexander Isak, the third-placed forward, just missed the last game, but at the moment he's languishing behind 9 midfielders, 7 defenders and a goalkeeper; and level with, or only a point or two ahead of a whole raft more. That's not at all unusual: you almost never get more than 2 or 3 forwards in the Top 10 players overall; sometimes you don't even get that many in the Top 20. In fact, things may even be a little worse than that: because the best forwards do tend to maintain quite a good average return across the whole season, some of them may end up looking like they were a 'Top 10' pick - but you find that almost invariably, at any point of the season, there were always 5 or more in-form midfielders comfortably out-pointing them over a short run of games.

The 'best of the rest' at the moment (the rather uninspiring Kostoulas, Emersonn, and Barry??!!) are outside the Top 40... Only Isak had any kind of case for inclusion in a starting eleven. And really, you can't realistically afford all 3 of the most premium-priced forwards - not at the start of the season, anyway, when budget is still rather tight. You'd do better to spend that extra money in midfield or defence.

The 5th midfielder is almost always the most important member of your squad, at least the most influential member. It's the position most often overlooked, most often scrimped on by your rivals; the squad slot that gives you the biggest differential advantage (in the true meaning of the term). You really want to be playing a 5th midfielder as often as possible.

The 4th defender is a close second - or joint second - in importance amongst your 'fringe players', the ones you might leave on your bench (and the 5th midfielder, I would argue, shouldn't really be viewed in that categoary at all, but should be a default starter almost all the time). You'll often want to start 4 defenders (if you have a short-term injury hole somewhere further forward, and/or you have 4 defenders all facing a promising fixture against a side in very poor attacking form); and you'll often need a fill-in for one of your usual starting defenders who's picked up a short-term injury or a suspension, or happens to be facing a particularly tough opponent one week (you really never want to be playing a defender against Haaland!); or you'll have someone who's unexpectedly rotated out, and needs to be auto-subbed.

Because these kinds of problems afflict our defenders so much, the 5th defender slot can also be surprisingly important. While starting all 5 defenders might be a pretty unlikely eventuality, it can happen occasionally. And it is relatively common that your 5th defender will have to stand in as your 4th defender because of an injury issue or somesuch with a priority starter.

However, for me, the back-up goalkeeper is really rather more important than the 5th defender - since I always try to go for a strong rotation pair that I can switch around regularly to try to always get a keeper with an appealing fixture. While I will usually have a preferred starter out of that pair, there's often not much to choose between them; and I'll generally end up using the 'second choice' at least 25%-30% of the time,.... sometimes well above 40%! So, that's a little more important than the 'last seat' defender.

And then there's the 3rd forward. Really, I'm not using my 3rd forward, except in a dire emergency. So, for this squad slot, you want to spend as little money as possible. And their returns really don't matter that much; so long as they have a guaranteed start, and are picking up an attacking contribution every 3 or 4 games, that's enough.

I see so many people online constantly fretting over their 3rd choice forward, impulsively shunting him out for a replacement every time he blanks once or twice. Vanity of vanities. It doesn't matter if your 3rd forward is a goal-machine or not. So long as he's not injured or dropped, you should hang on to him.

A question of 'causation'

Although I've already discussed the '115 charges' affair at some length last week, there is one further aspect of the general response to the issue which has bothered me during the recent furore: the commonplace assumption that City's alleged financial chicanery (and it's still not unequivocally 'proven') was somehow solely responsible for the success that they've achieved in the Mansour era.

The amount by which the club supposedly 'inflated' its income is indeed very large (getting on for a billion pounds, according to some accounts). But from what I've read, it seems that, in addition to trying to conceal the true source of a lot of that funding (it was being channelled through Etihad Airways, but was supposedly originating from Sheikh Mansour's private fortune, or from his investment fund, Abu Dhabi United Group, or other companies that the sheikh controls), they were also just lying about the value of that principal sponsorship, and not in fact receiving all of the money that the sponsorship deal promised. Whether they did receive the full amount or not, the purpose of these shenanigans was to raise their spending cap under the shifting FFP/PSR restrictions; it's unlikely that all of that 'extra money' was available for transfer spending; and, even if it was, it certainly wasn't all used. That headline figure we keep on seeing bandied about is wildly misleading.

City's spending on player acquisitions during the period of the 'charges' (around 1.4 billion pounds) was only very slightly higher than Chelsea's; and their other major rivals, Liverpool and Manchester United, also came in at well over 1 billion pounds of transfer spending. Moreover, City have done very well out of selling players on again for good prices, so their net spend is substantially less than that. Also, they've never exactly taken a 'Galacticos' approach of just throwing around stupid money in pursuit of star names; for the most part, they've paid sensible prices for well-targeted assets like Aguero or Rodri, picked up unregarded gems like Bernardo Silva, or promoted their own academy products like Phil Foden and Nico O'Reilly. Of course, there have been a few high-profile splurges, like the ridiculous 100 million lavished on Jack Grealish (WTF???) - but they were the exception rather than the rule. City haven't been nearly as profligate and ostentatious in their player acquisitions as Chelsea were in the early days under Abramovich.

Now, if we accept that the League's attempts to restrict transfer spending are fair and reasonable and 'for the good of the game', it is logical enough to assume that clubs seeking to evade those regulations are doing so in order to try to gain an 'unfair advantage'. The question I am raising here is not whether City did something wrong, or whether they gained some advantage from that wrongdoing; it is solely about the extent of that advantage gained. And, I fear, that is essentially unquantifiable. It is a bit of an accounting nightmare even to identify how much additional money City may have been able to spend on players because of these rule breaches (if indeed they occurred); it is impossible to point to particular players who were acquired with money that should not have been there, or to assess what the impacts on team performance might have been.

And, frankly, I don't find such financial 'sleight of hand' to be nearly so morally contemptible as forms of cheating which have a more direct and egregious impact on the pitch. We have seen numerous examples over the years (especially in Italian football!) of clubs bribing referees to secure results, bribing opposition players to underperform, or even agreeing to 'throw' games themselves. Sorry, but I just don't see 'cooking the books' as being in any way comparable to that sort of cheating. I mentioned in my first essay on this issue last week that there have been some probable instances of chemical doping with decisive outcome in the sport's history too (West Germany's extraordinary stamina that helped them to secure the 1954 World Cup is now thought to have been achieved with the aid of amphetamines). There have also been many occasions when a dreadful refereeing mistake affected the outcome of a major competition (like Charles Corver's inexplicable decision not to punish Harald Schumacher for the attempted murder of Patrick Battiston in the semi-final of the 1982 World Cup). And we've seen blatant cheating by an individual player have a decisive impact in a game - such as Maradona's infamous 'Hand of God' goal which helped to eliminate England in the 1986 World Cup, or Thierry Henry's handball which led to Ireland's missing out on qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, or Sergio Ramos's cynical foul on Mo Salah which forced him out of the 2018 Champions League Final. Those are horrendous examples of cheating on the pitch, which have tainted the history of the game.

What actually offends fans the most is not really the 'lying' to obtain an even bigger financial advantage, but the having such a massive financial advantage in the first place. Rival fans have always resented City, they've always sulked that the club's vast financial resources are 'unfair'; now, they just have an additional reason to stoke those fires of resentment even higher. Supporters of more modestly funded clubs have always bridled at the notion that super-rich owners like Abramovich or Mansour could afford to assemble super-squads that would be impossible to compete against and would, in effect, be buying the League title. The various inept and half-hearted attempts the League has made to limit the spending-power of the big clubs have not eliminated this problem, only curtailed it slightly (and it is a common complaint that the main impact of these regulations has in fact been to hamstring the poorer clubs and exaggerate rather than diminish the wealth gap in the game).

Manchester City would not have become the powerhouse of English football without Mansour's massive legitimate investment in the club. But they probably would have, even without the supposed additional 'illegal' investments. The exact impact of that extra money can never be fully gauged. But if the club are ultimately found guilty and are punished, they will be punished on a strict liability basis - because any breach of the financial regulations is culpable and is deemed to compromise or invalidate successes on the pitch; not because of any specific impact of those rule breaches, not because of an assertion that these breaches were solely responsible for City's successes on the pitch. That is fatuous nonsense that jealous rival fans are using to work themselves up into a vengeful frenzy.

That restless dissatisfaction - Monday Music Break No. 7

I was not, in general, much of a fan of the tsunami of synth which engulfed the English music scene in the first half of the 1980s (my high school and university days - so, I was listening to a lot of music around then). But there were a number of honourable exceptions, and Matt Johnson's project, The The, was certainly one of them (though partly because they didn't lean into the synths exclusively, still used a bit of guitar here and there, and plenty of live percussion). This is Infected, the blistering title track from the group's 1985 second album - a long-time 'Play Loud' favourite of mine!

"I've got too much energy

  To switch off my mind;

  But not enough

  To get myself organized."

Damn, we all know that feeling, don't we??

Luck-o-Meter 26-27 - Gameweek 6

 

I'm continuing with this series of weekly reviews for a while (although they are rather irksomely time-consuming), using the simpler format I developed in the second half of last season: a tabulation of the major types of 'lucky' incidents. 

I will try to resist any extended commentary (although I probably will still indulge in a few diatribes about any particularly egregious penalty or handball incidents).

This week, as I'd expected, after the super-long international break, we're suffering quite a few injury absences, a lot of players looking a bit fatigued or out-of-sorts, almost nobody really quite at their best. Moreover, some teams are looking as if they've lost their way a little after a lack of regular full-team training over the past few weeks, and with very limited specific tactical preparation for this week's fixtures. Hence, a few fairly unpredictable performances and unexpected results were likely - but, ultimately, although we saw a lot of sub-par performances, the match outcomes still went as generally anticipated.

Red cards awarded: Pascal Struijk plainly impeded Wilson Isidor and barged him to the ground when he was about to break on goal, only 25 yards out, with Struijk the last defender. It took a long time for VAR to call the play back - but eventually the correct decision was reached, after a pitch-side review (but that shouldn't have been necessary). There is an argument that the ball was running away from Isidor too fast for him to easily claim possession of it, and that the keeper might have rushed out to reach it first; but that's highly speculative (Verbruggen was on his heels, not yet looking to charge out) - and with such blatant 'professional fouls', I have no complaints about a red card being awarded.

Betancur's 'headbutt' on Luke Shaw may have been fairly token, but.... you just can't do that. And he probably should have been sent off for the preceding flying challenge anyway (he got the ball, but he was wildly out of control and could have cut his opponent in half).

There can't be any dispute either about Ryan Gravenberch's two yellow cards at Anfield.

Red cards not awarded: 

Penalties awarded: No arguments about Coventry's opener on Monday night. Though I have to admit, on first viewing in real time, I'd been inclined to suspect it would get overturned by VAR, as it felt very much like one of those where the keeper's despairing dive at an attacker's feet gets at least a little of the ball as well as the opponent's boot - and the keeper will almost always get any 'benefit of the doubt' if he did make a decent effort to clear the ball. Slow-motion revealed that the referee had got it absolutely right, that Lukas Hornicek had tripped Sidiki Cherif while missing the ball entirely.

Penalties not awarded: Daizen Maeda may have looked like he tripped over his own feet, but that stumble just inside the box was clearly initiated by a clip on the side of his left foot from Ryan Sessegnon. If referee Lewis Smith missed that, VAR should have told him to take a second look - but they didn't.

Sakamoto appeared to have been bundled over at the edge of the box, but the referee waved play-on; moments later, Thomas-Asante was fouled right in the middle of the pitch just over 22 yards out, a free-kick position that can be almost as dangerous as a penalty for some; but we could let both of these decisions go, as the ball fell to Ellis Simms in the box and he smashed the ball home.

Tight/dubious offsides:  

Goals wrongly allowed/disallowed: Kamada's equaliser for Palace was the culmination of a slick passing sequence around the edge of the box, but at least twice in this passage of play, teammates of his looked as if they had strayed half a yard offside - and this didn't even seem to get reviewed (at least, not as far as we were told on the BBC highlights...)??  Lerma's second, to give the home side an unexpected lead on the stroke of half-time, was even more controversial: the ball apparently deflected in off Khalaili's elbow, but in a messy scrum of players it was almost impossible to get a clear view of this on the TV pictures and VAR missed it.

Dewsbury-Hall's equaliser for Everton also looked clearly offside to the naked eye - but no SAOT pictures this week??

Stephen Mfuni's late fourth for Coventry on Monday night might have been slightly contentious, as Cherif was ahead of him, slightly offside, and running across the line of the shot. We don't really like to see goals ruled out for 'subjective offsides' like this - but they usually are.

Surprise omissions/early substitutions/injuries: It was perhaps a slight surprise that Ben White got the start at right-back rather than Jurrien Timber; maybe White is now back in Arteta's 'good books', after a long spell in the wilderness. Poor David Brooks, getting a first start in ages thanks to the injury to Alex Scott, was pulled off just before half-time (presumably that must have been down to a fitness issue, although there was nothing obviously wrong with him). Carrick started Leny Yoro over Diogo Dalot and just-back-from-injury Amad Diallo over Marcus Rashford. De Zerbi rested Van de Ven and gave a first start to Senesi instead. On Sunday, Dominik Szoboszlai was a late dropout from the Liverpool lineup, while Nico O'Reilly, recovered from his England knock, started at left-back instead of Josko Gvardiol (a bit of a blow to the nearly 28% of FPL managers who own him). Ndiaye was replaced by Doku only 10 minutes into the second-half - and the Belgian looked so lively that you fear Ndiaye might now be spending most of the rest of the season on the bench.

Near misses: Emersonn signalled the start of Ipswich's comeback by thundering a header against the post, from a sublime Enciso cross.

Tyrick Mitchell's dipping 30-yard volley would have been a 'Goal of the Season' contender if it had gone in, but it wasn't too difficult for Sels to tip over the bar.

Brandon Thomas-Asante let fly a tremendous 25-yard drive which crashed back off the face of the post - sparing Newcastle's blushes, as they nearly lost this encounter much more heavily.

Big misses/big saves: Leeds had all the best chances in the first-half, with Raya making a good point-blank block from Bogle, and later only just avoiding carrying the ball over his own goal-line as he raced backwards to catch Ampadu's looping header, and having to parry a fierce near-post drive from Gudmundsson just before half-time. In the dying minutes, Odegaard somehow miskicked an effort straight into Trafford's hands - from about a yard-and-a-half in front of an open goal! And moments later, Saka failed to convert a one-on-one break against Trafford.

Johan Manzambi had two good efforts denied within seconds, first from a last-ditch block by Kayode, and then from a smart save by Kelleher. In the second-half, Kelleher again came to Brentford's rescue with a double-save denying first Jackson's long-range shot and then McGinn's point-blank follow-up.

Pedro Neto had a fierce drive well parried by Petrovic barely a minute after Henderson's opener, but it availed Bournemouth little, as Morgan Rogers tucked home one of his trademark curlers just a few seconds later.

Cristian Walton made a terrific save with his foot from Kevin's fierce drive in the closing minutes, to hang on to Ipswich's hard-earned win.

Right on the stroke of half-time, Sunderland somehow left three Brighton players unmarked at the far side of the six-yard box, but Struijk failed to get any power on to his header and it looped tamely against the outside of the far post.

Dominic Solanke was gifted a chance early on when a lazy pass from Lammens was intercepted and broke to him just inside the area; but he couldn't convert his one-one-one opportunity. And in the second-half, he scooped an effort over the bar from six yards out. Amad Diallo also fluffed an excellent chance when played in by Mbeumo after a quick breakaway, failing to test Kinsky with his scuffed cross-shot from the edge of the box. Mbeumo also tamely failed to beat the keeper when he had a late chance to wrap the game up.

Sels made possibly the save of the weekend, denying Strand Larsen with a point-blank stop after a good break down the right from Khalaili; although his opposite number, Walter Benitez, also pulled off a couple of defiant last-gasp stops, while Gibbs-White saw a deflected long-range shot cannon back off the underside of the bar. And Daniel Munoz had the 'miss of the day', ghosting in unmarked to the edge of the six-yard-box to get on the end of Neco Williams's cross, but spooning his effort wide of an open goal. Chris Wood, on as a sub for the last 20 minutes, got a free header in the middle but sent the effort straight at Benitez.

Thierno Barry again claimed a vital goal for Everton; but again, his finishing was profligate - he missed two absolute sitters earlier in the game.

Liverpool's best chance of a fairly drab game at Anfield fell to Isak's 21-yeard-old stand-in Lewis Koumas, who broke in behind early in the second-half, but let fly his fierce shot straight down Donnarumma's throat. Shortly afterwards, Macallister had a decent effort from extreme range, but it was fairly easy for Gigi to parry away. A bit later, some trickery from Semenyo on the left side of the six-yard-box produced a square ball across the face of goal which Ndiaye somehow failed to get a touch on, despite being faced with an open goal from not much more than a yard out. Then Semenyo played in Haaland on the right, but his first-time effort from just inside the box was slotted wide of the post.

Newcastle's new young Belgian forward, Matias Fernandez-Pardo (bizarrely started at centre-forward, although he's really more of a winger), had a bit of a 'mare on Monday night - first dummying over a cut-back at the near-post when there was no-one behind him to exploit the open-goal chance, then a little later enjoying a fast break that put him through one-on-one, and going around the keeper but being thwarted by a last-gasp block after a heroic recovery run by Bobby Thomas. Coventry's Sidiki Cherif, who'd just extended their lead over their visitors with a crisp half-volley into the bottom corner through a forest of legs, completely muffed a much more straightforward chance when Botman's miscue fell at his feet unmarked in the middle of the box.

Outstanding goals:  Yehor Yarmoliuk's crisp half-volley from 17 yards to give Brentford the lead at Villa Park was an early contender for Saturday's best strike.

But Chelsea were having their own private 'Goal of the Month', or at least 'Goal of the Day' competition, with Joao Pedro's powerful strike being outshone by two even better scorchers from Jordan Henderson (although Cole Palmer owners will be wondering why he let Jordan take that free-kick!). Interestingly, Chelsea's xG was assessed at only 1.08 - much less than Bournemouth's! A positive delta of 4 goals is probably the biggest over-performance the Premier League's ever seen! 

However, Sessegnon's firm low drive from nearly 25 yards out to give Fulham the lead at Porman Road might have been even better. And Abdoul Ouattara's thunderous drive to level the score was better yet.

The best goal of a fairly flat Sunday was Doku's impish curler from the edge of the box to wrap up the points at Anfield, although Cherki's was also a delight, and the culmination of a superb sequence of intricate passes around the edge of the box.

Sven Botman's searing left-foot drive from the edge of the box on Monday night was one of the gameweek's best goals - but the Coventry defence were really standing around with their hands in their pockets, should never have allowed him so much time to size up the shooting chance.

Outstanding performances: 

Big mistakes: 

Bad luck/good luck: John McGinn's goal took a massive deflection off Kristoffer Ajer's attempted block.

Morgan Rogers was a little fortunate to be credited with his goal, as the defender clearly made a deliberate attempt to head it clear, and it was that touch which took the effort away from Petrovic; these days, the attacker always gets the goal awarded to him so long as his original effort appeared to be on target - but it was not always so (and occasionally, the new rule seems a little over-generous). Evanilson's consolation goal for Bournemouth was even more fortuitous, as he instinctively flicked out a leg to block Caicedo's powerful goalmouth clearance.

Solanke's last-gasp equaliser was also a fortuitous attribution: he was falling over and got barely any contact on the ball; Tonali's inswinging cross was going in anyway.

Barry's goal for Everton was gifted to him by a fortuitous deflection off Ajayi that ran perfectly into his path. It looked as though Dewsbury-Hall's scuffed through-ball attempt wouldn't have reached him otherwise.

FPL weirdness: It is utterly, utterly bizarre that Bruno Guimaraes, who was only on the pitch for 27 minutes, and didn't do much apart from nicking the late winner, claimed the maximum 3 bonus points (to the detriment of Rice, Calafiori, White and Madueke, ranked behind him on the BPS). The amount of credit given in the BPS system for a 'decisive goal' is just ridiculous.

Unexpected results:  This weekend's games have almost all gone much as expected, at least in terms of the final result; although Leeds gave Arsenal a damn good scare, Brighton might not have been expected to win quite so comfortably away at Sunderland (especially after going a man down quite early in the second-half), Villa are kicking themselves that slack defending cost them what should have been a fairly comfortable home win against a lacklustre Brentford, and Bournemouth were a little unlucky to take such a heavy spanking from Chelsea. Nottingham Forest were left ruing their wayward finishing and sloppy defending; they dominated the possession stats away at Palace, and recorded an xG of 3.34, but came away well-beaten. Perhaps the biggest 'turn-up' of the whole weekend, though, was the Monday night game: I had felt that Coventry have shown signs of improvement, have always looked quite dangerous going forward, and were about due a big win, and might well pull that off against a still rather flakey and inconsistent Newcastle; but the bookies disagreed, making Newcastle fairly strong favourites for the win - I was right.

The 'Team of the Week', for once, doesn't look too weird - although few people own McGinn or Jackson, few will probably have risked unlikely-to-start Guimaraes, and just about nobody owns Jordan Henderson or any Ipswich defenders! Cherki and Doku, unsurprisingly, muscled their way into the lineup on Sunday, and Coventry's stand-in striker Sidiki Cherif on Monday (he might genuinely become a strong contender for the cheap 3rd forward now; it's hard to see how Awoniyi was ever getting the nod to start ahead of him!). It's been a pretty unremarkable gameweek, with Brighton and City the only sides managing to keep a clean sheet, and Chelsea and Coventry providing the only goalfests. The global average eventually climbed to a respectable 55 points; nothing to get very excited about. Not many bizarre incidents this week - although there were a lot of really, really bad misses! Apart from the missed penalty award at Ipswich and the mildly contentious sending-off for Brighton, and a couple of very dodgy goal awards for Palace on Sunday, there were not really any egregious refereeing cock-ups either; so, I think it's only a 3 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.