Dilemmas of the Week - GW17 (25/26)

After the frenzy of quickfire fixtures around the turn of the month, followed for several teams by a highly consequential sixth tie in the group phase of the European competitions, being 'back to normal' for a little while now feels tremendously restful - really quite a little holiday. But of course, things start getting a bit crazy again at the end of next week. And even this week, we had 5 Premier League teams - Chelsea, Newcastle, Fulham, City and Brentford - involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals, which have taken a further little toll in injuries. And Palace and Arsenal's tie in that competition is still to come, next Tuesday. (If England's football authorities were to take one step to slightly ease the insane fixture congestion in the modern game, I really don't think anyone would mind seeing this competition being restricted - as its name already implies - to just those clubs competing under the umbrella of the English Football League, i.e., the top three tiers of the game outside of the Premier League [which is a separate and superior entity]. Many Premier League teams would obviously prefer to exit the event fairly quickly; and almost all of them regularly field a 'B side', at least until the latter stages, demonstrating that none of them really care all that much about it.)

Also, most clubs will be reeling from having lost a key player or two (or, in some cases, even more) to the African Cup of Nations, which kicks off this Sunday. That is a further element of unpredictability we have to grapple with this weekend!

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 17?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The inevitable surge in seasonal injuries has really begun to kick in big time, with Ben White, Daichi Kamada, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Joe Gomez, and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde all having to come off in last weekend's games with pulled thigh-muscles. No clear news on any of them yet, I don't think; all seem likely to be kept on the sidelines for at least 3 weeks or so, but it could be 2 months or more if any of them prove to be serious cases. We also saw Dominic Szoboszlai limping from a heavy knock to the ankle in the Brighton game. Dan Burn, who had to come off against Sunderland after taking a heavy blow to the ribs, is apparently going to be out of action for 4-6 weeks (so, presumably he must have broken some ribs?). Jeremy Doku, who was a surprise late omission from City's match against Palace after a training mishap, has now been confirmed as being likely to miss about 2 weeks with a leg injury. And Bournemouth's Tyler Adams came off in Monday night's thriller at Old Trafford; Iraola said he thought it was an MCL (Medial Collateral Ligament) problem rather than ACL, and not too serious - but it could still keep him out for a few weeks at least.

Danny Welbeck has been struggling with a sore back and hasn't trained much this week, but Hurzeler is modestly hopeful he might be OK this weekend.

Igor Thiago and Jordan Henderson are also both struggling with knocks which kept them out of the midweek League Cup defeat by City. Oscar Bobb came off very early in that match; apparently yet another hamstring injury.

Estevao also had to miss the midweek League Cup game with a minor muscle injury; he is expected to be able to play again after Christmas.

As well as being without Dan Burn, Newcastle had to rest Lewis Hall for the League Cup game against Fulham because of some ominous tightness in the thigh, and he's still considered doubtful for this weekend. And Tino Livramento had to come off in the Fulham game with a knee injury that looks as if it might be at least moderately serious. With Kieran Trippier and Emil Krafth already on the injury list, and not expected to be able to return for at least another couple of weeks, it appears that Newcastle no longer have any specialist full-backs available to them - unless they promote someone from the youth team. (Lewis Miley did a decent job filling in at right-back in the League Cup game, but I wouldn't expect that to be a regular assignment.) I wonder if Howe might switch to a back-three for a while, and try to deploy players like Gordon, Ramsey, Willock or Murphy, or maybe even Elanga, as wing-backs rather than wide attacking players. And at least Yoane Wissa is now available again as an additional attacking option, having played well and scored a fine poacher's goal in the League Cup victory.

Fulham's Sasa Lukic also had to be withdrawn at half-time in that League Cup game with tightness in the groin; though that might have been just 'precautionary'.

Forest midfielder Nicolas Dominguez had to miss last week's win over Spurs with an unspecified knee problem, and goalkeeper Matz Sels also had to give way to his understudy John Victor because of a sore groin muscle.

It's a lucky FPL manager who isn't going to be missing at least 1 of those. Actually, that would be extraordinarily lucky! You're pretty fortunate if you've only got 2 or 3 players here wiped out or extremely doubtful for this week. [This is why it's so dangerous to try to play a Bench Boost in the bleak midwinter.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Jadon Sancho is still a Manchester United player, so can't turn out for Villa against them on Sunday (though Emery hasn't been making much use of him anyway).

Lewis Dunk, Diego Gomez, Casemiro, and Yerson Mosquera are the latest players to earn a one-match ban for picking up a 5th booking of the season. Here the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is serving the second part of his three-match ban for a sending-off for 'serious foul play' near the end of the City game a fortnight ago.

Sunderland are likely to be particularly hard-hit by the AFCON departures, losing their midfield lynchpin Sadiki and their first-choice left-back Reinildo, as well as the more intermittently used Talbi, Traore, Masuaku, and Diarra (although at least they'll still have Simon Adingra still avaiable, as he was unexpectedly omitted from the Ivory Coast squad - because he's been getting so few minutes thus far at Sunderland). Manchester United have to do without their only regular goalscorer so far, Mbeumo, as well as wide attacker Amad and back-up defender Mazraoui, while West Ham are losing their preferred full-backs on both sides, Wan-Bissaka and Diouf,; Everton will surely suffer without the influential Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye, and already struggling Fulham could perhaps implode without their influential Nigerian trio of Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze.

Brentford lose Dango Ouattara and Frank Onyeka, Brighton their commanding midfield stopper Baleba, Burnley lose Tuanzebe, Foster, and Hannibal (though he's currently banned anyway),  Palace lose Ismaila Sarr, Liverpool lose Salah, City lose Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (although the latter hasn't been getting any game time anyway), Spurs lose Pape Sarr and Bissouma, while Forest must do without Sangaré (who was superb in the Spurs game last week) and back-up defender Boly.

The 'good news' is that few FPL managers owned any of these anyway, apart from Bryan Mbeumo. And the 'jolly super news' was that 3 of the next most popular African players in FPL so far this year, Antoine Semenyo and Mo Kudus (Ghana) and Yankuba Minteh (Gambia) missed out on qualifying for the tournament this year.

As I observed a few weeks ago, the main impact of AFCON on our FPL fortunes this time around is not going to be felt in the players we lose from our teams (few, if any) but in the effects it may have on the Premier League sides who lose key players; form is going to be even more uncertain, match results even more unpredictable for the next few weeks. At least most of these players should be back again in time for Gameweek 21, kicking off on the 7th January. But any who make it through to the knockout stages won't be available again GW22 or GW23 - perhaps even GW24 for the Finalists.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Fortunately, no. But - even with FPL's generous Early Christmas Present of extra Free Transfers last week! - I doubt if any of us enjoy the luxury of being able to drop someone this week just for showing dodgy form. It seems likely that every available transfer is going to be needed to address injury and suspension issues over the next few weeks.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, Phil Foden does appear to have become the season's 3rd 'essential' pick (after Haaland, and an Arsenal defender...) - even though it's almost certain that he won't produce half as many points over the next 5 or 6 gameweeks as he just has in that remarkable fortnight around the turn of the month! But damn, Rayan Cherki has been looking very, very good of late as well (if you fancy going against the tide...). Harry Wilson and Bruno Fernandes are also justifiably popular picks this week, after a storming run of form over the past 4 gameweeks (trouble is, really hot streaks like this rarely last more than 4 games...). Hugo Ekitike and Morgan Rogers are also being heavily transferred in; but, although they've been playing superbly, I doubt if there's reliable long-term FPL value in them: Villa have been massively over-performing, and are due a downward blip, while Liverpool are only just starting to sort themselves out - and may now be facing another step backwards, without Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Salah, or any recognised right-back [ah, I forgot Bradley's fit again; so, things aren't quite that bad...].  [Well, I was 'wrong' about Villa and Morgan Rogers; they keep grinding out the wins, even without playing that well - which is usually a sign of a potential champion! I'm still a bit wary about young Morgan for FPL, though; he's been in a super-hot little spell of form lately, but he's never in the past been a super-prolific points producer: only a few double-digit hauls per season, almost never gets back-to-back hauls of any sort at all. And I was right about Foden's and Wilson's and Fernandes's streaks coming to an end.]

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!

FOUR types of selection decision in FPL

 

It occurred to me the other day, when I was writing about Phil Foden's recent improbably hot run of form, that we may discern 4 main types of selection decision in FPL, differentiated by their timing.

Timing of a transfer: the FOUR TYPES

1)  Anticipatory/Speculative/Precognitive

If you go in for a player before he's started to show any clear signs of form - just following a 'hunch', or because you have some sentimental attachment to him, or because he's a big-name player who's often done well in the past (ahem, Mo Salah...) - you may sometimes get lucky with that. But you have to appreciate that it's a very risky play. Going in so early for someone is inevitably a big gamble, even if you may have some good reasons - though very subtle and uncertain ones - for the choice. Those reasons might be founded on past history (e.g., the player usually recovers strongly from a brief injury absence, regularly displays a particularly keen hunger to return to the fray after missing a few games for any reason, always bounces back strongly after just a few poor performances, often has a great game against this particular opponent...), a positive shift in team form or lineup or tactics, a favourable run of upcoming fixtures, some background information which may suggest a likely psychological lift (a spat with the manager or a legal problem resolved, a family problem improving, a bereavement receding into the past), or subtle indications on the pitch of a possible turnaround in fitness or confidence that might herald a sudden, imminent uptick in points-scoring form. If you weighed up such factors, and subsequent performances by the player seemed to vindicate your assessment, you may congratulate yourself on a perceptive early transfer decision. But more often, FPL managers who go in early for someone are just taking a wild punt, based on no substantive rationale at all; and if that player suddenly hits a hot streak of form out of nowhere, they've just been incredibly LUCKY - but they'll never admit that. [Disgruntled rivals may complain of them relying on a crystal ball or a time-machine, because there really seems to be no other way to explain how such a bizarre decision worked out so well for them....]

2)  Hasty/Hopeful/The Calculated Gamble

If you go in for a player after 1 or 2 good hauls, that will sometimes pay off for you. But again, it's very risky - you might be falling victim to the classically over-optimistic vice of chasing last week's points. 'Form' is not always accurately reflected by points returns; 'form' is often transient or inconsistent. You need to look for evidence of a general upturn in form that is likely to persist - and improve further - over a number of games. You can only find that kind of evidence by watching full games with close attention; stats are no substitute for that; and a highlights roundup is not good enough either - you need to have seen the whole game. 

3)  The 'Goldilocks Zone'

This is the 'ideal' time to make a transfer, the time when most 'smart' managers recognise that a player is probably now worth having. Now, as I just said above, because 'form' is not always reflected fully - or, sometimes, at all - in the FPL points returns, this 'sweet spot' might come when a player has started playing better, but has not yet produced any worthwhile points; or perhaps, they've only produced a few modest hauls, but (not yet) a really big one. And, although it might sometimes be possible to discern indications of a decisive upturn in performance from just one game, usually it takes a little longer to be confident of that. As I wrote in this essay at the end of last season attempting to define the concept of 'form': One good game might be a freak; two on the bounce is very encouraging, but it still might mean nothing; three.... is form.  Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, you can pinpoint the individual gameweek in which a player first began a streak of good points-scoring - even if those returns were at first quite modest and/or quite intermittent (and perhaps not really reflective of any strong positive shift in the player's or his team's performance at that point!). But as the season is unfolding, it is almost always impossible to recognise the exact moment of such a shift: it doesn't generally become visible until a little later - one, or two, or three gameweeks further on. And that is when you should be jumping on the player. Don't beat yourself up that you might have missed a few good hauls from him; be satisfied that you're getting good points from him now, points that a lot of rival managers are still missing out on.

4)  'Late to the party'

Often, you'll miss these 'early signs' that a player may be about to go on a tear. And that's forgivable - especially if, like me, you don't have good access to live TV coverage of the games. And the 'Goldilocks Zone' is very unforgiving, usually an extremely narrow window of opportunity: it's often just a single gameweek, and, even with the most generous dispensation, it can rarely be extended to more than two or three. However, after that point, it should be fairly obvious that this player is now a top pick, and if you continue to ignore him - well, then you're really not paying attention; or, worse, you're being stubborn (sticking to a previous selection in defiance of mounting evidence against it), or unreasonably prejudiced against this new option (perhaps he hurt you in the past: the old 'He always starts blanking as soon as I buy him' superstition - we've all fallen victim to that at one time or another). Often, such stubbornness grows out of being in thrall to the ideal of self-consistency, or what is sometimes called a 'committment bias'  - one of the most deep-rooted and damaging of our cognitive biases: we may have convinced ourselves that a player we'd picked ahead of the newly in-form player was always going to remain the superior prospect, or we may have convinced ourselves early on in this emerging trend of form that it was going to prove ephemeral - and nothing will now change our minds about this choice, no matter how much evidence is stacking up that it has now become wrong. But.... better LATE than NEVER. If you can overcome your pride, your stubbornness, your prejudice, and accept that a player is now so hot that you must have him - you might still be able to catch one or two more decent hauls from him before the streak dries up (as they all do, eventually).

In summary, then:...

The first type of transfer is very early: made before there has yet been any evidence of an improvement in a player's performance (or at least, not in his FPL points returns); it is hence a big, and probably unjustified, risk. Such transfers can occasionally pay off very well; but you should ensure that such a pick is based on definite evidence - if only in the form of positive background factors, rather than anything yet in the on-field displays - and sound reasoning.

The second type is also early, and possibly over-hasty: it is made on the basis of an improvement in performance, but perhaps only scant evidence of such, perhaps from just one or two games - which is rarely enough to make you fully confident of a sustained upturn in form. If you're allowing yourself to get over-excited about one or two good returns, you're most often not shrewdly anticipating the next big thing, but simply falling prey to a fatuous 'sheep pick'.

The third type is based on an astute assessment of early evidence of an upturn in performance: not just the FPL points returns, but the overall contribution of the player and the way he and his team are functioning together. Such evidence may occasionally be visible in a single game; but usually it takes two or three games to become persuasive.

The fourth type is at least slightly late - or maybe very late! - only recognising the turn in form some time after it has become evident, at least to the smarter and more perceptive FPL managers. (As a general rule-of-thumb, if The Scout - FPL's vapid, anonymous, in-house pundit - has just recommended a player,... you probably should have bought him at least one or two gameweeks back.)

To apply this template to the recent example of Phil Foden's extraordinary streak of goalscoring form....

If you'd gone in for him in Gameweek 13, that was definitely a Type 1 decision. And it must have been based on having a crystal ball, because there really was no indication that he was suddenly about to come good so strongly, after a long run of 'blanks', and often pretty anonymous performances (he'd only produced 20 points from the previous 8 games, with just a solitary assist!). A fixture against Leeds was not sufficient reason to start fancying a player who'd shown almost no indication of suddenly becoming a major FPL points contributor again over the previous two months. (Neither was a moderately promising fixture-run immediately thereafter. And it was only moderately promising: Fulham away is not a particularly 'easy' fixture; Palace away certainly isn't.)

If you'd bought him for Gameweek 14, that would have been a Type 2 decision. Was there really any evidence in the Leeds game of a decisive change in mentality, confidence, style of play (or in team tactics, that might give him more scoring opportunities...)? Not really. And that good performance was only against Leeds, who are struggling at the bottom of the table. Moreover, there were two further Premier League games within the coming week, and we might reasonably have expected that Foden would get short minutes in these games - or perhaps be rested completely for one of them - and/or might have been inhibited a little by fatigue. I would say, getting Foden in GW14 was essentially just chasing last week's points; there was not yet any convincing rationale for buying him.

The interesting question is whether, after two outstanding displays in quick succession, it would have a Type 3 decision to get Foden in Gameweek 15. I would say NO. Foden had just played twice within a few days; and there was a crucial Champions League tie away to Real Madrid coming up the following midweek - and he did indeed get short minutes in this next match. Also, Sunderland were much the best of the three EPL teams he'd faced in this remarkable week - although they produced an uncommonly poor performance on this occasion, and, despite playing only just over an hour, Foden again managed to come up with a goal.

Acquiring him didn't really become a Type 3 decision rather than Type 2 until Gameweek 16; and arguably perhaps not even then. In the wake of the Real Madrid game, there was again a risk that Foden might be rested or subbed off early. And Crystal Palace are one of the best teams City have faced this season, the strongest defence in the league (after Arsenal's); especially away from home, a City win could not have been confidently predicted. Moreover, it is statistically extremely improbable that any player will achieve 4 double-digit hauls in a row (has it ever been done before??) - and while that wouldn't argue against acquiring Foden for this game, it should counsel that it was unreasonable to expect another very big points return from him. And yet - astoundingly - he did produce yet another haul! But that was a once-in-a-blue-moon freak; and if you bet on that, you were lucky rather than brilliant.

This might be a rare case where there was in fact no 'Goldilocks Zone' for acquiring Foden. There have been good reasons to doubt if he would be able to extend this scoring streak in each gameweek that it has continued; and the calculus on this was greatly complicated by the December fixture congestion and the huge importance of City's looming Champions League clash. In each of those four - closely packed-together - gameweeks, there were reasonable arguments for remaining hesitant about acquiring Foden: It was becoming increasingly unlikely in each match that he would produce another successive big haul, and increasingly likely that Pep might rest him. 

Moreover, Doku had been a very attractive pick from City for a while, and Cherki was just becoming so - before Foden suddenly caught fire. And if you already had one of these (or perhaps Nico O'Reilly; albeit that he's in a different position category, that pick would still be eating into your club quota from City), it would not have been unreasonable to hang on to them, in preference to Foden - whose newfound burst of form might well have quickly fizzled out again. And even if you had fancied bringing Foden it, it was still a somewhat speculative pick - so early in the emerging hot spell, after such a long barren streak, after such a disappointing season last year - and it might not have been a leading transfer priority; especially as the mounting toll of injuries and suspensions in the bleak midwinter was using up most of the available stock of Free Transfers for the majority of FPL managers (even with the bonanza of extra transfers we were just given in in GW16).

Perhaps, perhaps... transferring in Foden has jumped straight from a Type 2 to a Type 4 decision!

However, I would suggest that acquiring Foden now, for Gameweek 17, is probably the Type 3, 'Goldilocks Zone' moment. 

Yes, paradoxical as it may seem, I think he's only become a really unassailably strong pick now - when his super-hot streak is (almost certainly?) over. You will have missed 55 points from 4 games in the last fortnight; but a fortnight ago, that was completely unforeseeable; and even as the fortnight played out, it remained hugely improbable. You shouldn't suffer any self-recrimination for missing out on the benefits of such a bizarre freak performance.

But now, we have seen clear evidence that Foden - and his team - are playing extraordinarily well; and this does seem to be a sustained shift in performance. Moreover, they're in a pretty soft run of fixtures still, with only the New Year game against Chelsea offering a significantly formidable opponent in the next month or so (and at least that one's at home). At this point, it is definitely looking foolhardy to resist buying him any longer.

With the benefit of hindsight, we would all realise that Gameweek 13 was the ideal time to have brought him in. With the benefit of a crystal ball, we could have realised that he would become 'essential' in Gameweek 14.... or 15,... or 16. But we do not enjoy those two benefits. And without them, it was reasonable enough to hold off buying Foden until now. Most of the FPL managers I consider 'smart' have not bought him yet (the few that do have him, I think had punted on him earlier in the season - and had probably only stuck with him thus far because they'd had other higher-priority problems to address with their transfers); but I anticpate that the majority of them will be going in for him now.

Alas, it is now statistically very unlikely that Foden will achieve yet another massive points-haul in the next game - even against defensively flakey West Ham. And you can be pretty damn sure that he won't rack up another 50-odd points over the next 4 or 5 games. But he is in sensational form, and has some inviting fixtures coming up.

If you already got him in the last few gameweeks, good for you; but you were taking a gamble on him, and were fortunate that it paid off so extraordinarily well. Now, though, it really is looking as if all of us should join you.

The Palmer Conundrum

Now that Cole Palmer seems finally ready to return to regular action, after missing pretty much the whole season so far with a succession of niggling injuries, FPL managers are being confronted with the difficult decision of when - or whether - to transfer him into their squads.

With Mo Salah having proved to be worthless this season, and - so far - Isak and Watkins having failed to stake any claim on our attention either, there really hasn't been much pressure on budget in the 2025/26 FPL season; but there is always some budget-pinch. (Player spending always expands to consume whatever funds you have available...)  With Haaland still being, for now, that great rarity, a true FPL 'essential', and fiendishly expensive (especially if you didn't have him from the start of the season, but only acquired him after his price had begun to shoot up further!), and other moderately expensive players like Thiago and Woltemade and the top Arsenal or Palace defenders also having become 'must-haves' for most FPL managers, there isn't that much spare cash knocking around for anyone.

Hence, this really becomes a Saka/Palmer Conundrum: Bukayo Saka is the only similarly priced player, and one of the only midfielders at any price-point who's currently playing well and producing points; so, if you fancy acquiring Palmer, the only convenient pathway to him is to swap out Saka. There doesn't seem to be any reasonable way to afford both of them. And if you don't have Saka (rather surprisingly, only 21.5% of FPL managers do at the moment), it's still going to be awkward to juggle your budget around to accommodate such an expensive new acquisition as Palmer - probably requiring the use of multiple transfers (unless you had a lot of unspent money somehow swilling around in the kitty...).

Now, I am a huge fan of Palmer. And I do believe that he is a slightly 'better' player than Saka, both in real-world terms and for FPL purposes (though it's a foolhardy and unnecessary comparison - they are different types of player, with different strengths and weaknesses): Palmer has more variety in his game (though that's very largely down to how their managers make use of the two players), is more the principal playmaker (where Saka is merely a primus inter pares amongst many strong attacking options, and largely plays second-fiddle to Odegaard as the main creative force in the team), and - when really on song - is an even more prolific provider of both goals and assists.

But there's the crux of the matter. Palmer went through a long spell last year - most of the second-half of the season - where his FPL productivity fell off a cliff. It wasn't really his fault; the rest of the team had stopped performing around him. But that continues to be a problem with Chelsea: they can be astoundingly brilliant in individual games or short runs of games, but Enzo Maresca still doesn't seem to have been able to build any lasting consistency or resilience into their play. And that has continued to be the case this season, with embarrassing losses to the likes of Brighton, Manchester United, Sunderland and Leeds interspersed among some much more impressive performances. 

So, even 'peak' Palmer might fail to produce very much if the rest of his team is misfiring. And after such an extended lay-off, it will surely take him a little while to get back to his best. He was pulled after less than an hour against Bournemouth last week, and was immediately given a precautionary rest again, rather than being brought along as a bench option for the Champions League game against Atalanta on Tuesday. He's not physically anywhere near 100% yet; and recovering full mental sharpness might take a bit longer still. 

Furthermore, Chelsea's upcoming fixtures aren't the best from now through till the beginning of January: Newcastle and City away, and defensively solid Everton, Villa and Bournemouth at home.

For me, this is clearly a wait-and-see decision. In present circumstances, it would be far too much of a risk to go in for Palmer straight away, before he's shown that he's recovered his best form; and also far too disruptive of your existing squad, if you had to sacrifice Saka (or one or more of your other more expensive players) for him, and/or make multiple other changes to rebalance your budget. [Well, damn, he did immediately come up with a very nice goal against Everton in Gameweek 16. But he said afterwards that he's still recovering from the groin problem, and he was again withdrawn a few minutes shy of the hour-mark. So, I stand by my assessment here that he's probably still some weeks away from being anywhere near his best again.]

Saka might prove to be expendable - though largely because there are so many rival claimants to a squad place from the limited club quota at Arsenal. Their defence is so superior to every other team's that we'll probably all want Gabriel again as soon as he's back, while also hanging on to another of their defenders (most probably Timber or Calafiori). Rice is looking like he could be a more consistent midfield points-producer than Saka this year. And there will probably be other attacking options - Trossard, particularly, but also perhaps Havertz or Merino or Martinelli on occasion - who merit consideration for short spells when they hit a scoring streak.

Saka, although he's been playing very well, hasn't yet produced the big points that we've often seen from him in the past (especially in the opening third of last season). And maybe he won't - as Arteta usually imposes a very limited and disciplined role on him, out wide on the right; and, as opponents get more used to these patterns of attack, they defend against them better, often double-teaming the tricky Saka when he gets near the box. 

I have a feeling that Saka is on the brink of exploding again in FPL: and today's game against Wolves would be a prime opportunity for him to do so! But I suspect that, this season, he will probably only contribute big FPL points in short 'hot streaks' - and we might find ourselves looking to move him in and out of FPL squads to take advantage of these, rather than relying on him as a long-term hold. Indeed, even when on such a hot streak - even when he's producing better than Palmer - we might still find ourselves able to do without him, because there are three or more Arsenal players who are even more worth having in those games. (YES - because of the way FPL works, requiring you to balance so many factors of available budget, points-per-pound value, differential scoring and points spreads across position categories, and restricted club quota, Palmer [or anyone else] can be the best midfield pick without being the highest midfield points-producer.)

I also think that Palmer will recapture his best form again at some point this season, possibly quite soon. And when he does, he'll probably be more worth having than Saka - or anybody else. But..... NOT YET. Wait and see.

Viking plunder!!

 

Well, damn - the Lanky Viking has gone and done it again. Erling Haaland has notched his fourth brace - and his fourth double-digit FPL points haul - of the season that is still only two months old,... even against one of the league's better defences,.... even when his team are really still not playing all that well.

I don't like to say that any player is absolutely a must-have. There are almost always alternative stategies you can pursue by redistributing your budget spend around other players, and the highest points-producers are not usually 'essential' merely because of that.

But right now, in this sort of form, yes, Haaland is a must-have.

And it's not just because of his impressive numbers, his impressive consistency. It's also because of the complete lack of any competition, among the forwards or in any other position.

Even with the additional points now available for cumulative 'defensive contributions', it has been an astonishingly low-scoring FPL season so far. 

Ordinarily, we'd hope to see almost all of our starters breaking 50 points by this stage, and at least 2 or 3 of our biggest performers having racked up 60 or 70 or more. Last year, Salah, Palmer, Saka, and Mbeumo as well as Haaland posted enormous numbers in the opening months of the season. This year, Haaland is the only forward to have registered more than 50 points (his current total of 83 points is in fact more than twice as good as his closest rivals); Semenyo is the only midfielder to have done so (his 70 point total is well behind Haaland, but again almost twice as good as all but a dozen or so of his midfield rivals, and 24 points clear of the second-best), and the only other players to have just squeaked over that threshold are a trio of defenders (who've happened to pick up untypical goals early on).

There was a busier and more turbulent transfer window than usual at the start of this season, and many of the new players have disrupted the tactics of their new clubs and/or not yet found their feet in the new setting. We've also seen rather a lot of early-season injury problems, with the absences of Palmer and Saka - expected to be two of the top FPL performers - particularly unfortunate. The early international breaks have perhaps been a bit more disruptive than usual too. And, what with one thing and another, nobody's form has settled down yet, no team has been consistently or convincingly good so far - and we've seen a lot of unexpected results.

And almost none of the most fancied FPL assets have produced very much at all so far. In fact, NO-ONE  - apart from Haaland and Semenyo - has posted really good FPL numbers yet.

While this continues to be the case, and particularly while the other expensive players - Salah, Palmer, Isak, Saka, Gyokeres - are out of action or not producing, there is absolutely no pressure on the FPL budget: there is no problem about affording Haaland, even at his enormous 14-million-plus valuation. I said at the start of the season that it was difficult to envisage either Haaland or Salah 'justifying' their very high price-tags this year; but I noted there that because of a lack of budget pressure early in the season - with fewer high-priced players than usual, and most of them not fit - it was possible to afford one of them (but not both); and Haaland has obviously been the one to go for.

While Haaland is thus eminently 'affordable', is producing 2 or 3 times as many points as any of his rivals, and no-one else in the game is producing big points at all at the moment - YES, he is a must-have.

But this is a freak circumstance. I can't recall seeing anything quite like it before. And I don't think this situation will last very long. Haaland's points production will surely slow down at some stage. And, even if it doesn't, when the likes of Palmer, Saka, and Isak finally hit form (yes, sorry - I have rather given up on Mo Salah's prospects for this season), there may still be questions to be answered about whether Haaland continues to be a 'must-have'.

Enjoy this remarkable run while you can, Haaland idolaters - he's unlikely to remain an indispensable pick for the whole season.

That SAME OLD QUESTION again....

"Are Haaland and Salah worth it this year?"

Short answer: NO.  (But....)

'Super-premium' players are almost never 'worth it': the opportunity cost of going without so many other better players in almost every position in your squad will massively outweigh any points-advantage they might offer (4 times out of 5, anyway). 

There are certain guideline criteria I suggest in that earlier post on this issue which might justify their inclusion. But I don't think these criteria (the crucial last two of them, at any rate) are clearly going to be met with either of the BIG TWO this season.

Will they rack up an absolutely massive season total??  Probably not - not anywhere near the level of their previous best years, anyway. Liverpool and City are both in a 'rebuilding' phase, which makes their overall team performance much more suspect (City, in fact, were really poor for most of last season - and haven't yet shown any sign of turning that around). Their star men are having to adapt to a lot of new personnel around them, with probably a very radically different playing style arising from that as well; and, more particularly, they will probably face more competition in sharing the club's pool of potential goals than in many previous years, with new players like Ekitike and Wirtz and Frimpong (and maybe Isak...?) very likely to cut into Salah's total, and Marmoush and Cherki probably claiming at least a few chances that might previously have fallen to Haaland. I think both of these superstars will still have very decent seasons - probably breaking 200 points, and maybe even getting up towards 250. But is that enough to justify a price tag of 14.0 or 14.5 million? Probably not!  [And that, I think, is at the optimistic rather than the pessimistic end of the range for projections of their performance this season. Salah, of course, is likely to lose a month or so mid-season due to his participation in the African Cup of Nations, and we should adjust our expectations of his season-total accordingly (although we should always be concerned rather with current form, rather than year-long achievement). And both Liverpool and City are giving signs that they're likely to struggle a little this season, at least against better opposition - and returns from all of their players will probably be slightly restricted by this. There is a good chance that Haaland and Salah - even without a major upset like a significant injury or a prolonged dip in output - will only return something like 170-190 points this season.]

Will they be the top-returner in their position category, by a big margin??  Again, probably not. They might again be the top points-returners, but, as I pointed out a few days ago, that, on its own, doesn't matter; it's the runs of returns over short stretches of the season, and the overall returns from the full starting eleven rather than the best individuals that decide your outcomes in FPL. Palmer, Saka, and Gakpo could run Salah pretty close, maybe even do a little better; and Cunha, Mbeumo, Ndiaye, Kudus, Wirtz, Ndoye, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Grealish, Ismaila Sarr, Enzo Fernandez and a few others also look like they could have very big seasons. Haaland has been given stiff competition by Isak and Watkins in the last couple of seasons, and they might prove even better prospects this year (especially if they move to stronger teams?); Joao Pedro and Richarlison have started the season very strongly, with suddenly rejuvenated teams who now look likely to be able to challenge at the top of the table; Wissa and Wood will be hoping to build on their outstanding form of last season; and the new arrivals in the league, Ekitike and Sesko and Gyokeres, look to have a lot of potential too. I'm not saying any of these will beat Haaland; but I don't think he'll open up much of a gap over the best of them.

Despite - probably - failing these key 'rule-of-thumb' tests, Haaland and Salah might still be justifiable picks as long as they're getting somewhere close (they might; though I'm not super-confident in them this time...),... IF the overall budget dynamics this year make them still affordable.

The key factors that determine this 'affordability' are how many other premium players there are (that you might covet as well as, or instead of the BIG TWO), and how much really good value there is to be found at the lower-end of the price spectrum.

On the first point, the situation looks rather promising: there are almost no other premium-priced players this season - the smallest number there has been for many years, I think. With the departures of Son and Luis Diaz in pre-season, we're left with only Palmer and Saka priced above 10 million in midfield, only Bruno Fernandes at 9.0 (who really should not be in contention at all this year, at any price), only Marmoush and Wirtz at 8.5, and only Cunha, Mbeumo, Foden, and Odegaard at 8.0. Among the forwards, only Isak is priced above 10 million (and not by much: I'd expected he'd start this season at least at 11.0 or 11.5!!), and only Watkins and Gyokeres are at 9.0.

But the cheap squad-filler end of the equation isn't nearly so favourable: among the forwards, only Strand Larsen and Thiago look like reasonably viable picks at the bottom end of the price spectrum (if Strand Larsen's rumoured move to Newcastle comes off this week, he could suddenly become one of the most popular picks in FPL!), and only perhaps Beto, Muniz, and Osula possible ultra-cheap bench-fillers (though they'd be low-value, very risky picks, as they don't currently look like being regular starters). Amongst the cheaper midfielders, only Reijnders, Ndoye, and Tavernier have so far stood out - and those might have been flash-in-the-pan performances. So far, we haven't seen many really compelling possibilities even at 6.5 (Rice and Enzo, Ndiaye and Grealish?), let alone much cheaper. Finding a player like Palmer two years ago, someone who might become the top points-producer of the season from a starting price of only 5 or 6 million, is a real 'Black Swan' event.....

Moreover, quite a few of the better budget midfielders, and most of the strongest defenders seem to have been priced 0.5 million higher this year, presumably to reflect their greater overall points-potential because of the newly-introduced 'defensive points'. This has a surprisingly big impact on the overall budget dynamics, and really puts a squeeze on our ability to afford the most expensive players (effectively, it means an extra 1.5-2.5 million of our budget is being spent 'invisibly').

If Haaland or Salah hit a run of form where they seem to be averaging 7 or 8 points a game for a while, they will be worth considering. But actually, for players of their price, even that isn't particularly outstanding - maybe still not quite enough to justify their selection, most of the time. Last year, Salah managed to average 9 points-per-game over the entire season; and both of them have often enjoyed spells of averaging 10 points or more per game. This year, I just don't think they'll do that again. While lots of other players will also probably hit that desirable threshold of bringing in 7 or 8 ppg, at least for a short spell.

But, of course, the dynamics of squad selection are always very fluid, dependent on multiple interacting factors. Salah and Haaland, despite not playing conspicuously well, have both produced pretty good points across the opening two games. While most of their more expensive rivals are currently out of contention: Isak is unavailable for selection while transfer discussions drag on, Watkins may be distracted by thoughts of a move and has looked out-of-sorts, Palmer and Saka and Odegaard just got injured, Eze just moved clubs and might not get an immediate start, Cunha and Mbeumo and Wirtz haven't found their form at their new clubs yet....

As it happens, you probably can afford Salah or Haaland at the moment. But I don't think you should splash the cash for both of them!  And neither of them should be regarded as a long-term hold this season.

For many FPL managers, alas, this question is treated as above rational discussion. These two players have developed a cult-like following of fanatics - who insist that they must always be a must-have pick, regardless of any considerations of form or overall budget. This, of course, is a very damaging delusion.