What is 'Form'?

 

Well, it's not this.

FPL defines 'form' - as in the screenshot of their Stats page above - as the 'average FPL points return over the last 5 gameweeks'. While this is a moderately useful number to keep in mind (though, if you watch football regularly, you ought to be fairly continuously aware of this, without needing to check up on the FPL figures very much...), it's obviously a very flawed metric - and it's not really how any of us conceive of 'form' in football.

For one thing, FPL returns can be pretty random: they're not always an accurate reflection of how well a player has played. For another, this ranking doesn't take account of how many gameweeks in this run the player might have missed, or only played short minutes in (at least, I don't think it does; it's not explained anywhere, and I've never been bothered to check more deeply; but it appears to aggregate the same last five gameweeks for everyone, not the last five that each player actually played in... or started in). [CORRECTION: FPL is now specifying that the timeframe is 'all League games played in the last 30 days'; but I think that might be new.]  Moreover, it doesn't consider 'form' in other recent games - European and domestic cup competitions. 

Even more importantly, it doesn't capture any of the small details of each game that might give more meaningful context to a performance: it is, of course, mainly reflective of goals and assists - but they often come very much against the run of play, sometimes as complete flukes,... or from unjustly awarded penalties,... or when the opposing side has been reduced to 10 men. 

And 5 gameweeks is an arbitrary cut-off anyway - why not 4, or 6? I'd suggest that 5 gameweeks is in fact an awkward compromise, too long to properly reflect very recent shifts in form, but too short to do justice to more consistent, longer-term form. So, I don't look at the FPL 'Form' table very often....

First, we need to bear in mind the important relationship between team form and individual form. In FPL, we're mostly interested in individual form - but we have to assess that in the broader context of the overall form of the team a player represents. I commented last week that I think Cole Palmer has been continuing to play very well - but his FPL returns have dried up over the last 4 or 5 months because Chelsea's form has collapsed. Likewise, Kerkez, Robinson, and Gvardiol were popular defensive picks earlier in the season, but their teams' form got so flakey in recent months that their attacking returns dwindled, and clean-sheets almost disappeared - making them no longer top options in that position.

If a player is playing well, and is part of a team that is playing well, and that is playing in a style that supports and enables that player to perform at his best,... and this good play is the kind of play that is likely to produce FPL returns fairly often,... and there are good reasons to suppose that this good play is not just an ephemeral one-off but has good chances of being a continuing trend for some time,..... THAT is 'form'.

A player in this sort of form won't always produce FPL returns for you (because no-one, not even Mo Salah, produces FPL points every week, even if they play well!); but he'll give you a much better chance of fairly regular returns - which is what you're looking for in this game.

Then, I think it's useful to identify THREE DIFFERENT CATEGORIES of 'Form':

1)  Established, medium- to long-term form.  If a player (or a team) has been playing fairly consistently well over a period of several gameweeks, that's certainly something you should be taking notice of. And it can be a persuasive sign that the good form has solid foundations and is likely to endure for some time further (although, of course, form can turn at any moment....).

2)  Emerging form.  Form can shift in a single game, even sometimes in a single moment: occasionally you can see that a coolly taken goal, or a heroic last-ditch block, or a flying save has completely re-energised a player who'd been having a bad spell and lost confidence in themselves. But that's very rare; and it's a risky thing to bet on. In general, I feel it takes 2 to 3 games of good all-around performance to be persuasive that someone's form has turned for the better. (Or, equally, 2 or 3 disappointing games - not just 1!! - to convince that someone's form is badly faltering.)  

I've always rather liked the proverb: 'Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.'  (Possibly invented by Ian Fleming, who uses the phrase and the idea as a structural device in the plot of Goldfinger.)  One good game might be a freak; two on the bounce is very encouraging, but it still might mean nothing; three.... is form. 

3)  Turning form.  Ah, but while it might usually take at least 3 games to firmly establish a trend in form, you probably do want to trust your instincts and take an early gamble occasionally on the first signs of a change in fortune for a player. Here, a full appreciation of the overall context for a player's performance is especially crucial. If you can see that a player is mad keen to make a mark after returning from an injury absence or a spell out of favour with the manager; if you can see that a tweak in the tactics or the return of a key supporting teammate is likely to particularly suit your player's style; if you've spotted an approaching 'turn' in the fixtures towards some softer opponents; if you can discern strong underlying reasons why a player just played so well, and why his performances might now continue to improve,..... why, then you might consider diving in for him after just one good game, or certainly after two. (I'd be warier of dumping out players too hastily for a 'poor' performance, though. It's usually much harder to determine why a player has 'lost form', or when it might return.)

[It is notable that the recommendations of FPL's lamebrained pundit 'The Scout' usually only call attention to players who've been producing good returns for a few weeks, if not slightly longer: players whose form is certainly more 'emerged' than just 'emerging', if not at least on the cusp of being now well-established - players you should have noticed for yourself already. 'The Scout' is almost always just a little bit late to the party in spotting good acquisitions.]

But above all, you need to watch full games, with close attention - to get an overall sense of how a player, and the team around him, is performing in every aspect. People who say a player is 'in form' just because he scored a goal or two recently (or has kept a clean sheet or two, if it's a keeper or defender), or has a good-looking number in that FPL chart at the top of the post here,.... they don't know what they're talking about; THAT isn't form.