Don't take a chance on uncertain starters (or new arrivals)

 

As I noted last week, I have often been guilty of taking a few too many risks in my own initial squad, and this has no doubt played its part in the fact that I have generally suffered a rather poor start to the FPL season.

With me, it's a rather specific foible of getting tempted to gamble on a fringe pick, a promising up-and-comer who isn't yet quite established as a regular starter at his club, or not at any rate as a significant force in FPL. Last year, for instance, I fancied that Jarrell Quansah was likely to get a few starts, because of a minor injury problem with Konate, and that he might prove good enough in that spell to earn a regular place; instead, Slot grew disillusioned with him very quickly, and took the almost unheard-of step of yanking him off at half-time in the very first game - wrecking the youngster's confidence, and effectively ending his Liverpool career. (Though I can understand why he did it in terms of the tactical situation on the pitch, I still feel that was a mistake on the Dutchman's part: possibly gaining a marginal advantage in the immediate game-state does not outweigh the damage done by potentially ruining a young player's career and thereby depleting the club's back-up resources in central defence.)  A year or so before that, I'd been bullish about Rico Lewis's prospects with City: and indeed, he was a regular starter, and playing very well, early in the season - but, of course, Pep being Pep, that didn't last very long. Going back a bit further, I was a huge fan of the talent of Norwich's elegant No. 10, Todd Cantwell, and was convinced he could become one of the best budget midfield picks for the season - but he too fell out of favour with his manager, and his career mysteriously tanked from that moment. (Yes, I could begin to worry that I am some kind of jinx....)

A bit later in the season, you can get away with taking one or two chances like this; bringing in a player who's not yet a proven points-provider, perhaps not even an absolutely certain starter; buying them early to get them at a low price, and carrying them on the bench for a few weeks until they start to confirm the promise you saw in them.

But in the opening weeks,... there are so many other uncertainties: players who might be displaced by new arrivals at the club, players who might be dropped because of an imminent transfer away, players who might not start or might only get short minutes because they're still short of full match-fitness, players who might go down with a last-minute injury....  Yep, at this time of year, you're quite likely to suffer at least one unexpected drop-out - perhaps even two or three, if you're a bit unlucky - from your squad every week, even among the players that you'd normally expect to be certain starters. (This is one of the key reasons why it's INSANE to consider playing a Bench Boost this early in the season.)

So, you really can't afford to load the odds against yourself by including any picks who are obviously in one of those most 'at risk' categories. We knew Isak was going to be mired in a transfer wrangle - and unable to play for anyone - for weeks. We knew Eze was likely to move this week - surely too late to have any chance of turning out for his new club this weekend. We knew Sesko and Gyokeres were relatively late arrivals, and hadn't trained much over the summer, and were thus likely to get quite limited minutes over the first two or three weeks. We knew that with Marmoush, Foden, Cherki, Reijnders, Silva, Gonzalez, Kovacic and Gundogan all competing for a small number of places in the City midfield, we couldn't count on any of them being invariable starters.

It was really not smart to pick ANY of these players in the initial squad this year.

Even if new arrivals at a club do appear to be more-or-less fully fit, and have had just about enough time to start bedding in with their new teammates, they remain unknown quantities: it is likely that they may take quite a while to fully settle in to a new style of play, and it might be weeks or months before they start producing their best; some, perhaps, if they're arriving from a lower tier in England or from an overseas league, may never successfully make the step up to this most physically intense and competitive of leagues. How soon - if ever - will Eze become a starter at Arsenal, what kind of role will he play there, and can he ever have the kind of impact for them that he had for Palace?? We just don't know. Will Cunha and Mbeumo gel together at United, or are their styles and personalities too different - will they end up in fractious competition with each other rather than synergistic cooperation?? And will one of them assume the penalty-taking duties?? We just don't know. How long will it take Gyokeres, or Sesko, or Wirtz to start producing their best form in the Premier League?? We just don't know.

Players like these are watch-and-wait options. They'll probably come good at some point, maybe soon;... but they're just not good bets at the very start of the season.

Possible Picks 2025 [Pt. 2]

 

Following on from this morning's post on the most promising goalkeeper and defender picks for the season ahead, I'll now try to provide a survey of the best prospects in midfield and attack. 

Midfielders

Amongst the 'outright goalscorers' ('forwards-in-disguise') in the midfield ranks, Salah still reigns supreme; although, after his record-breaking season last year, his price has now been upped from an already wince-making 12.5 million to a probably no-longer-viable 14.5 million. At that price-point, I think he certainly can't be regarded as a season-long hold. Although, given his propensity to start strong - particularly in the opening game! - I think it might be tempting to try to crowbar him into the initial squad,.... but with a view to possibly moving him out quite quickly, once we've seen firmer evidence of who the best alternatives might be. (I'm always a bit sceptical of 'records' in particular fixtures, too. And I wonder if Liverpool's opener being an evening game this year might disrupt the apparent pattern of Salah's scoring-in-the-opener; evening kick-offs are severely disruptive of the usual conditioning and preparation routines, and rarely see players produce their very best.)

Also, however good Liverpool prove to be this term, however dominant they may become, it's probably still going to be undesirable to double-up on them in one position. And that may mean that, before long, we'd rather have Wirtz or Gakpo (or perhaps even Szoboszlai or Macallister) than Salah [NB: That doesn't mean they'll be better than Salah; but they can still be better picks than him. This is the main thing people have to grasp, before they can start becoming good at FPL.] - especially given the extensive upgrades we can carry out throughout the rest of the squad with the money we'd save by getting rid of Salah.

There's a similar problem now at Manchester United, where Mbeumo and Cunha are both certainly very tempting - but you probably have to pick one. And perhaps that's another selection where you can wait a while, to see which (if either) emerges as the stronger prospect. There are inevitably some worries as to how quickly they may find their feet at a new club and develop a productive understanding with each other (particularly when the club has been so dysfunctional for the last several years, and other areas of the team that urgently need upgrades have thus far still been overlooked in the current transfer window; an awesome new front-line might still struggle if the rest of the team behind them is still a train-wreck....). One might worry also about how they'll adapt to no longer being the ONE BIG HERO at their club. Cunha expected to be the primary, almost sole creative inspiration at Wolves; but at United Bruno Fernandes (and Amad Diallo) already fills that role. Mbeumo was used to being the primary goalscorer for Brentford over the past two seasons; but now he's going to be sharing the goal output with 2, 3, 4 other top players. There's also an uncertainty as to who might now be taking penalties for United, which can give a hefty boost to FPL returns. I think, frankly, both the new guys are (even) better penalty-takers than Bruno Fernandes, and, as strikers, have a strong case for taking over that duty from him. But Sesko might have something to say about that as well. And it's not impossible that they might split penalty-taking between them. We just won't know until they've been awarded two or three. At the moment, the general assumption seems to be that Bruno will retain the responsibility for penalties; but, to me, that feels like the least likely outcome.

With Jarrod Bowen being bumped into the 'forward' category this year (boo!), the only other contender among the 'primary goalscorer' group is probably Iliman Ndiaye at Everton. I think the just announced prospect of Grealish joining the club on loan is particularly exciting, because this would presumably free Ndiaye from having to 'hold width' on the left (and track back...), and allow him to move forward into the inside-left channel more, perhaps even evolving into an outright striker. He has oodles of talent and a nose for goal, and could be one of the breakthrough stars of the year, I fancy (although, playing for a bottom-end club like Everton, that is going to be a pretty tall order).

Oh, I'd missed for a moment that Omar Marmoush had been reclassified as a 'midfielder' this year. He's definitely got a lot of points in him, but he's priced rather high at 8.5; and there must be some doubts about how often he'll start.

Amongst the wide attackers who also have major goal potential, Newcastle have the strongest lineup, with Gordon, Barnes, new signing Elanga, and Jacob Murphy (who had an outstanding season last year, especially in the second half). It's unfortunate, there, that we don't know for sure who will be the most favoured starters from that quartet; and, almost certainly, there'll be a bit too much rotation between them for any of them to have any reliable value in FPL this time. Gordon had been one of my mainstays for a while; but he had a mostly rather subdued season last year. I'd like to think that he's due a bounce-back; but it might be that he peaked early, and has somehow lost some of his early fire. There's also a lot of doubt about how disruptive and destructive the now seemingly inevitable loss of Alexander Isak will be. Having a bunch of very dangerous wide attackers is not going to be much good if they don't have a top striker working with them to convert a high proportion of their potential assists.

Bukayo Saka, though I fret that his true potential is hamstrung by Arteta invariably insisting on tethering him to the touchline (and also, he and Arsenal become far too predictable by having so much of their attacking funnelled down his side of the pitch), is clearly in a different class to almost anyone else in the wide positions, and - as long as he stays fit (and, last season's serious hamstring tear notwithstanding, he does generally appear to be superhumanly resistant/resilient to injury) - he's probably a near-essential, as he notched over 100 points in the first third of last season (and there didn't seem to be anything freakish or out-of-the-ordinary about that; that's just what he does....). A lot of people seem to be hanging fire on bringing in Saka at the start of the season - perhaps because of concerns about the number of games he missed last season, or because Arsenal have quite a testing run of fixtures at the start of the year. But I think that would be a mistake. Arsenal, as would-be major challengers for the title, really should not fear anyone; and Saka is a big game player. I am not by any means an Arsenal fan; but I believe they are well capable of beating Liverpool, Forest, City and Newcastle - and, if they do, Saka is likely to play a big part in that.

The other wide players at Arsenal, though, (largely because of the massive bias towards playing down the right to try and take advantage of Saka) are far less consistent in their impact, and tend to get rotated with each other from time to time: Martinelli, Trossard, Madueke, and indeed young Ethan Nwaneri could all be worth considering if they hit a nice vein of form and enjoy a consistent run of starts - but that's a rather big IF, unfortunately.

Bournemouth also have an intriguing roster of dangerous 'support strikers' who sometimes play as a main central forward, with Kluivert, Tavernier, Ouattara, and Semenyo all looking promising picks for spells last year. I think Kluivert (usually on penalties, too) is the most consistent threat; but it's a problem that they all tend to blow a bit hot and cold, and none of them was a really strong prospect for more than a month or two at a time.

Kaoru Mitoma at Brighton (pure class, a stunningly creative player; but he does seem to have appalling luck in FPL - he's been denied so many points by bad refereeing decisions, awful finishes by teammates, strange non-attributions of assists,...), Neto or Gittens or Estevao (tremendous talent, but not, I suspect, a regular starter this year) or Garnacho or Simons at Chelsea (the latter two particularly exciting, I think, if those rumoured moves come off), Alex Iwobi and Adama Traore at Fulham, Amad Diallo at United (who looks like he might get a regular start at right wing-back, where he has proven he can flourish, although he probably won't be as potent an attacking threat with three new strikers playing ahead of him this year; and it's a pity he appears to have been shunted out of the right-sided 'twin 10' slot, where he really looked dangerous), Hudson-Odoi at Forest, Kudus, Kulusevski (when he's fit again), Johnson, Tel, and Odobert at Spurs (lots of promising young talent there, but you probably can't expect any of them to be regular starters), and Bailey and Malen (who's had an impressive pre-season) at Villa, maybe Schade and Carvalho (if he can finally unlock his enormous potential on a consistent basis) at Brentford, and very possibly Jack Grealish at Everton (if he settles in quickly and becomes a regular starter) could also have an impact. Although these are the sorts of players you probably need to be rotating regularly in and out of your squad as they come into hot form. Brighton have a fat roster of such players, with Yankuba Minteh emerging as one of the most exciting of them last year; but unfortunately, none of them are likely to get regular enough minutes to make them an FPL prospect (Adingra has been mentioned as a possible loanee to one of the promoted sides: he could well become an appealing cheap 5th-seat choice, if that comes to pass; and if it does, Minteh or Gruda could become more compelling possibilities at Brighton). I wonder, too, if we'll ever see the best of Solly March again, after that dreadful knee injury. And I really like the skills of Marcus Edwards, who joined Burnley in February this year, after a few pretty good years at Sporting; at a promoted side, there's perhaps little chance he can really make much of an impression - but I'd like to think he's worth keeping an eye on as a possible dark horse pick at some point. I'm also quite excited about the Colombian Jhon Arias joining Wolves (he was stupendous for Fluminense in the Club World Cup, but it might take him a month or two to find his feet in the English game).

Amongst the 'playmakers' Cole Palmer is probably a must-have again; after all, he was well on course for a 300-point season for the first half of last year - and even though his output tanked as Chelsea's form collapsed around Christmas time, he still wasn't playing badly in that second phase of the season. Chelsea's Club World Cup triumph, and some impressive pre-season performances, suggest that they have now turned a big corner under Maresca. And Palmer's immediate rapport with Joao Pedro is looking frankly terrifying. I fancy Palmer could well be the top-returning FPL player this season; and, if he doesn't get injured, is absolutely certain to be among the top four or five.

Ebere Eze is the only other player at the moment who carries anything like that potential in that sort of position (and I worry that he might squander that potential if he gets tempted to accept a move to a 'big' club; at Palace, he will start every game he's fit, and always be the centre of everything they do; at an Arsenal or a City, he'll just be another cog in a machine, given a trammelled role to play, and constantly rotated in and out). 

I'm not sure that anyone else in that role stands out any more, though, with Maddison looking set to miss most of the season with an ACL injury, DeBruyne having moved on, and Phil Foden seeming, sadly, to have lost his way. While I love Martin Odegaard, and appreciate how pivotal he is for Arsenal, he just doesn't score goals consistently enough to quite get up into the FPL reckoning. (Though perhaps he could again; last season was a bit of a subdued one, by his standards.) Likewise, the two Morgans, Gibbs-White and Rogers, are terrific players, but probably don't carry quite enough consistent goal-threat to be interesting for FPL. Rayan Cherki seems conspicuously under-priced at 6.5 million; but I suppose there are some legitimate concerns about how well he can bed in at a currently rather unsettled side, and how regularly he will start. Mikkel Damsgaard emerged as an all-around threat for Brentford last season, but his impact might be curtailed now by the loss of such crucial collaborators as Norgaard and Mbeumo. Harry Wilson has often looked very dangerous at Fulham, but I'm not sure he's ever going to be an invariable starter, even when he can stay fit; likewise Emile Smith Rowe is fantastic on his day, but can be very inconsistent, and struggles with fitness. Dwight McNeil and Carlos Alcaraz at Everton have a lot of potential this season, too, I think. Young Lucas Bergvall at Spurs is a hell of a talent; and if he gets a run of starts, I can see him emerging as a tempting budget option. And I really like Georginio Rutter at Brighton; we only saw the best of him in fits and starts last year, but if he can get a steady run of games this time, I think he could establish himself as Brighton's key creative force, and perhaps elevate them to challenging for the lower European places. It is rumoured, too, that a couple of the best of last year's promoted players, Omari Hutchinson and Bilal El Khannouss, might be returning to the league. But these would all be somewhat hopeful, speculative picks for the start of the season: players with the raw talent to do a lot, but not yet the proven record of having consistently done so for a long period.

Bruno Fernandes, on the other hand, has the past record, but not, to my mind, the future prospects. He now looks set to play mostly in a deeper midfield role, and cede most of the goal-scoring duties to the impressive new forward trident they've just bought (and might have to give up penalty-taking duties too...?).  He's never been a really good FPL pick since his first couple of seasons, anyway: his big points tend to be concentrated into a few really hot but really short streaks, with often long, long droughts between them; it's nice if you can get on him when he's producing fat returns, but he's generally been a terrible long-term hold. 

There are some midfielders who might be seen primarily in a more defensive light, yet do also have a strong attacking element to their game; and most of these should now get a strong lift to their points tallies from occasionally racking up impressive numbers of 'defensive contributions' - Sandro Tonali and Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes, Rodri (if he stays..), Reijnders (altthough I think people are getting carried away by his recent brace of goals in a friendly: that was against Palermo, who are these days a pretty mid-rank Serie B side - I think I could score two goals against Palermo!!), Wharton (absolutely magnificent in the Shield game on Sunday), the two Sarrs - Pape and Ismaila (the latter looking particularly sharp against Liverpool at Wembley), McGinn, Caicedo (and Lavia, if he can ever stay fit for more than a month or two; and maybe Andrey Santos, if he can't?), Macallister, Andreas Perreira, Elliot Anderson, Joao Palhinha (likely to be an absolute monster on these new 'defensive points', and could get very, very tempting if Frank should put him on penalties as well), and possibly Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall after his move to Everton (perhaps going to replace Doucoure in the more attacking central role?). 

However, I think the two big options in this category, players who have shown the potential to be pretty frequent scorers and assisters of goals as well as regularly putting in huge defensive shifts, are Enzo Fernandez and Declan Rice. Those are two players who should probably now be near the head of the queue for possible inclusion as the 4th or 5th-seat midfielder.

I can't give you any more help than that, sorry. You just have to pick the ones you have the best feeling about - given their price, and their opening 5 or 6 fixtures. Any of them might start out the season in blazing form.... or be a complete dud. There is no way to tell. 

At least I've pared the choices down to a few dozen that I think seem most promising, from the getting on for 400 available in this category.  

If you're finding it really difficult to choose,...you might as well just write all the names on Post-It notes, stick 'em to a wall, and throw darts at them blindfold.

Forwards

Lots of tumult and uncertainty in this category (even more than usual!).  Haaland, down from last year's record price-level, but still an unfeasible 14-million, is priced out, I'm afraid. If he stays fit, I think he will probably be the top points scorer among the forwards - possibly by a fairly large margin. But that doesn't matter. 

Naive FPL managers assume that the game is just about finding the players who produce the most points over the season. But IT'S NOT: it's about finding the group of players who will produce the most points within the constraints of your budget (and over relatively short stretches of time, not the entire season).

With a super-expensive player like Haaland, there is an enormous opportunity cost - in foregoing substantial improvements in half a dozen or more other slots around your squad, if you'd redistributed all that money you spent on him more evenly across the totality of your selections. However many points he gets you, it can almost never make up for all the points you're probably sacrificing by going light in so many other positions in order to afford him. That is going to be true of Salah too this year, I'm sure; but it will be even more true of Haaland, because City are not the imperious, unchallengeable force they were a few years ago; and they're now entering into a rebuilding period. (And the big Viking might find himself having to share the goals a bit more, with Marmoush, and a few others.)

The other big hitters of last season might also 'disappoint' somewhat. Isak now seems certain to miss the opening weeks of the season, as the transfer wrangling over him drags on and on. And if he goes to Liverpool (or another 'big club'), he'll have to face a 'settling in' spell, and quite possibly some rotation, and almost certainly find himself not enjoying the exclusive spotlight of being the main goal outlet any more (that's going to be Salah at Liverpool for a while longer yet; everyone else is just a support player....).

Chris Wood just had an exceptional, freak-ish season (massively out-performing his xG, often nabbing a goal from only one or two half-chances in a game): no-one could be expected to repeat that. Particularly not a rather technically limited forward who's about to turn 34 years of age. It's probably unreasonable to expect the other veterans who enjoyed brief resurgences of youthful vigour last season, Raul and Danny Welbeck, to sustain those kinds of performance levels either. They might yet prove worth having for a spell here or there; but I wouldn't want to gamble on them at the start of the season - especially as Raul and Welbeck don't have very inviting opening fixtures. I suspect Forest's athletic back-up Taiwo Awoniyi or their new signing Igor Jesus may soon be getting a lot more minutes - but we'll have to wait and see on that.

I don't have much more optimism about Ollie Watkins at the moment either. He is rumoured to be looking for a move away from Villa - and I think that would be good for him, as the Midlands side seem to be struggling a bit with recruitment, and don't look likely to ever rise above the level of a good, occasionally slightly over-performing mid-table side. And Watkins is turning 30 around the mid-point of this season; he perhaps doesn't have too much time left at the top level. If he stays at Villa, and continues to perform for them at the level of his last few seasons, he'll definitely be a strong contender. But I think his pricing is a bit mean: I'd be all over him if he were only 8 million, or perhaps even 8.5; but 9 is really just a bit steep for an aging striker with a mid-level side.

Jarrod Bowen was a tremendous midfield option last year; but being reclassified as a 'forward' strips away a significant chunk of his points returns from the last few years. Also, he's only once managed more than 15 goals in a season, and sometimes has struggled to get into double figures. He's really more of a 'support player' than an outright striker, and not exactly prolific. And West Ham really look like a club who might struggle to keep themselves out of the relegation mire this season: that kind of struggle tends to erode the confidence of players in all positions, and undermines the performance of forwards as much as defenders. If he gets on a hot streak, sure - bring him in for a while. But, except against the promoted sides, I struggle to imagine where West Ham are going to pick up any points this season.

Most of last season's other (at least occasional) contenders are also looking unpromising for this new season: Nicolas Jackson (very good at the start of last year) has now tumbled way down the pecking-order at Chelsea, and is looking for a move away, Yoane Wissa is unsettled at Brentford and embroiled in transfer stories, Liam Delap doesn't look to have a guaranteed start at Chelsea, Rodrigo Muniz is still languishing behind Raul in the running-order at Fulham (and is again surrounded by talk of loans or transfers), Beto doesn't seem to have the full confidence of David Moyes (and might perhaps be displaced as the centre-forward by Ndiaye, or a new signing...), Darwin Nunez has left the building, Richarlison and Eddie Nketiah have injuries....

It's a long, long time since there's been a start to the season so confused and disfigured by frantic transfer probings; a long, long time since we had such comparatively few clearcut forward choices available to us (i.e., players we can be really confident will start, who don't have a cloud of doubt and dissatisfaction and speculation hanging over them).

Of last year's sigificant goalscoring assets, only Jean-Philippe Mateta (excellent in pre-season), Evanilson, and Jørgen Strand Larsen seem to be currently in contention. I was in danger of overlooking Dominic Solanke, since he missed big chunks of last season, and never fully found his feet at a floundering Spurs. His prospects might be very much improved if Spurs can develop a more effective attacking style under Frank this season. But my concern about him is always that he's rather too unselfish, really rather more of a facilitator than a primary goalscorer; none better at hold-up play and leading a vigorous high-press, but.... he never seems likely to offer much more than 15 goals a season - which isn't quite enough to get excited about for FPL.

Joao Pedro is suddenly everyone's darling, after his sensational appearances to help Chelsea clinch the Club World Cup; but as I pointed out the other day, with the depth of the squad at Stamford Bridge, there must be some doubts about how often he will start, or how fixed his role might be. I think I'd probably take the chance on him; but you have to recognise that, at this point, it is still taking a chance.

Brentford's Igor Thiago and West Ham's Niclas Füllkrug present intriguing cheap options for the 3rd seat, as they seem to have finally emerged from a long succession of injuries that wiped both of them out for most of a season. But they're both a bit of a punt - still completely unknown quantities, as far as their potential in the Premier League goes. And Leeds's Joel Piroe (5.5 million) looks like the only attacker coming up from the Championship who might have a chance of making some impression in the Premier League (although records in the second tier rarely translate to the elite level: Burnley probably won't keep many clean sheets this year, and Piroe might struggle to reach a double-digit goal tally). Chelsea's Spanish teenager Marc Guiu going on loan to Sunderland might also become a promising budget option; although he has been a bit injury-prone, and it's not certain he'll be an immediate starter - so, it's very risky to go for him just yet...

The main excitement in the forwards discussion at the moment is focused on the three new arrivals: Hugo Ekitike, Benjamin Sesko, and Viktor Gyokeres (who I'd take, for now, probably in that order).  The problems here are that Ekitike is being undermined immediately upon his arrival by all this talk of trying to get Isak in (inevitably to replace him as the no. 1 starting choice at centre-forward), Sesko will be having to share the goalscoring with at least two other very talented producers (and if you choose to go for Cunha or Mbeumo in 'midfield', you probably won't want to be doubled-up on the United attack anyway), while Gyokeres is going to have to feel his way into a side who have got used to playing without a conventional No. 9 at all for some years now. I think they'll all ultimately settle in fine, and probably have pretty good debut seasons; but this first month or so might have some very rough spots.

It's going to be a great season: anything could happen!

GOOD LUCK!!!

Possible Picks - 2025 [Pt. 1]

I've always maintained on this blog that I will generally avoid giving direct recommendations for or against any specific player (and I certainly won't be sharing anything about my own squad; not in advance, anyway; maybe occasionally retrospectively, just to share a few 'war stories' for general enlightenment and mirth - and acknowledge my fallibility), but.... since The Big Kick-Off is finally drawing near again, everyone is becoming obsessed with polishing up their opening squads.... and casting around for additional sources of advice.

So, I'll attempt a brief-ish rundown of who I think are the players most worthy of consideration, for each position and price category.

Goalkeepers

As last year, I don't think the 5.5 keepers really justify their price-tag. Liverpool looked uncharacteristically vulnerable to the counter-attack in their Community Shield defeat to Crystal Palace the other day; and they have a much trickier opening run of fixtures than last year. So, although I think Alisson is again likely to be among the frontrunners for 'best keeper' over the season, it might be a bit risky to bring him in at the start. Pickford has been in outstanding form for the past few years, and has been monstering the 'saves' points; while the defence in front of him has proved surprisingly robust too - though not without its wobbles (Everton started last season really poorly, remember; that might happen again). And it's really hard to judge the 'difficulty' of Everton's fixtures: they are essentially a side whose ceiling is hanging on to a lower mid-table position and not getting sucked down into the relegation zone - they don't really have any easy opponents. I think Pickford might well come out on top of the pile for the third straight season, but not by enough of a margin to make him a clearly preferable pick over one of the cheaper options.  If Alisson should get injured, his new understudy Georgi Mamardashvili, at only 4.5 million, could become a very tempting pick.

While in most recent seasons it has looked smarter to start with two 4.5-million-pound keepers, this year the strongest options are probably Sels or Henderson (solid all-round teams on an improving trend, with very niggardly defences - and an outstanding pair of keepers too), who are now priced at 5.0 million. 

Robert Sanchez (also at 5.0) is proving a very popular choice this year as well, after his outstanding performance in the Final of the Club World Cup last month. However, I worry that there are still many weaknesses in his game, still a propensity to the occasional costly error. Although he looks to have taken some massive steps forward in recent months, it shouldn't be forgotten that for most of last season, many Chelsea fans and the vast majority of pundits were baying for him to be replaced - by anyone at all, even his not particularly impressive understudy, Filip Jörgensen. More importantly, though, with very strong defensive sides, you usually get a stronger points differential over alternate picks from choosing one of their defenders rather than the keeper; and sides at the top end of the table probably have a lot of attacking players you'd like to have too. So, even if Sanchez were to be the best keeper this year (and I very much doubt that), he still wouldn't be the best goalkeeper pick - because you have to save your club quota of three selections for other, even more valuable Chelsea options. This is the decisive argument against David Raya as well (that, and the fact that Arsenal are usually so good defensively that he doesn't get to make that many saves!).

Altay Bayindir would be a bold, left-field pick. 5.0 is expensive for a back-up keeper, but Onana's form has been so abysmal that he's completely lost the confidence of United fans - and perhaps of his teammates as well - and now looks very likely to be sold or dropped. I probably wouldn't take the chance on picking Bayindir until we know that's happening; but if it does, he could be worth considering. With their impressive new forward line, United could be a much more dangerous proposition this season; and they've usually managed to keep a fairly tight defence, even when the rest of the team was misfiring dreadfully over the last few years. (And apparently Onana has a 'hamstring problem' at the moment, which might keep him out for a few weeks [although I suspect that might just be a smokescreen for a transfer negotiation...]; so - Are you feeling lucky, punk?)

Liverpool's outstanding second-string Caoimhin Kelleher quickly became the most popular 4.5-million-pound pick after his move to Brentford. However, while he's likely to be a frontrunner for the number of saves (as was his otherwise fairly mediocre predecessor, Mark Flekken, last season), Brentford - reeling from the loss of their long-time manager and some of their best players over the summer - are widely predicted to be deep in the relegation fight this year. It will certainly be a very tough season for them; and even when their attacking dimension was looking more robust, they always leaked a lot of goals. Thus, I think that, excellent as Kelleher is, he's a very risky pick at this club. (Also, there's an injury question-mark over him at the moment....)

The other 4.5 options who've returned very well in recent years are Sa, Areola, and Verbruggen, and Petrovic might now join that roster - although it's a worry that they're all in sides who've struggled for consistency, and tend to concede rather a lot (not so much Bournemouth last year; but this time out, they're bound to have some struggles after having almost their entire defence poached during the summer!). And, unfortunately, they all have pretty tough early fixture runs. Wolves, I fancy, will probably come through the first 8 or 10 weeks the best - but it's a tough call.

Martin Dubravka at Burnley (who had an absolutely stellar defensive record in the Championship last year; but an awful lot of that was down to a superhuman season from their young keeper Jamie Trafford, who's now gone to warm the bench at City; and it's very doubtful if that robustness can hold up in the top flight anyway) and perhaps Karl Darlow at Leeds look like being 4.0 starters this year, which will make them popular budget-saving options.

If you choose to adopt the - risky, non-ideal - tactic of taking a non-playing 4.0 keeper to free up an extra half a million for another spot in the squad, the only sensible route to it is to take the club back-up to your first-choice keeper (that way, you have a guaranteed replacement if your starter ever goes AWOL). Bentley at Wolves is really the only good option here. However, there doesn't seem to be any point in doing that this year, when there are 4.0 starting options. (Kinsky, I think, is possibly the best 4.0 keeper, at least in overall context, since Spurs [yes, despite their horror show last season] are a much better team than Wolves or Burnley or Leeds; but I can't see any case for taking Vicario as your No. 1 pick. I actually think Kinsky is a better all-around keeper, and would have fancied him to displace Vicario as the starter sooner or later; but it seems they're likely to let him go out on loan.)

It's particularly worth keeping in mind the fixture pairings for choosing keepers - so that you can, if possible, guarantee that one of your picks will always have a home game.  On that basis, Henderson/Sa or Sels/Petrovic look the best options, with Areola/Darlow perhaps being a tempting - but much riskier - cheaper alternative.

Defenders

Arsenal are likely again to be way out in front as favourites to keep the most clean sheets and concede the fewest goals. Liverpool and Chelsea might give them a good run, though. Forest, Palace, Newcastle, Everton, and perhaps last year's disasters Spurs and Manchester United are likely to be the 'best of the rest' defensively. I don't think I'd look at any other clubs, unless they have a very good attacking full-back option.

Ben White - although it's been forgotten during his long injury absence last season - is always the best Arsenal option, when he plays. It's unfortunate that he might now face some rotation with Timber and Calafiori. Myles Lewis-Skelly - who looks like he might be getting the nod as the preferred starter at left-back? - or Timber, if we find him getting regular starts (probably only if there's an injury to someone else..) could be very tempting options at 5.5. Of the 'big two', Saliba, because of his pace, gets tasked with policing quick counter-attacks, and that leads to him often making unfortunate fouls which can result in yellow or even red cards. While Gabriel is almost invariably the main target man at attacking set-pieces, and is thus slightly more likely to come up with the occasional goal or assist. They're both likely to do very well on the new 'defensive points', with probably not much to choose between them on that. But overall, Gabriel almost invariably has a small but significant edge.

Manchester City seem to have lost their way badly on defensive solidity over the past couple of seasons. And in the Club World Cup this summer, they again looked very porous through the middle, especially against the swift counter-attacking style of Al Hilal, who caused the major upset of the tournament in putting them out in the 'Round of 16'. Pep has become far too reliant on superman Rodri being able to singlehandedly plug all the holes like the heroic little Dutch boy; but he's temporarily sidelined with another injury,... and suddenly engulfed in transfer rumours. If they lose him now, I wouldn't bet on them managing a Top Six finish. Even if they do rediscover their former invincibility, Pep Roulette is a very real hazard for FPL managers: the rotations at that club can be so frequent and so unpredictable that even their very best players cannot be relied upon to start every week. Ait-Nouri and Gvardiol are massively popular choices at the moment, because of their impressive numbers in the past for attacking contributions. However, Gvardiol now seems likely to be starting most games in the centre of defence, where he won't be able to get forward very much to threaten the opposition penalty area. And I fear Ait-Nouri, even if he manages to keep a regular start (and there is a lot of competition for that left-back slot), is likely to be much less productive than he was at Wolves, as Pep doesn't seem to like having his full-backs push all the way up to overlap with his wingers any more (although that makes you wonder why they bought him in the first place, as that is basically his whole game; but very often City's recruitment has appeared completely divorced from what their manager is actually doing on the pitch - remember Jack Grealish???). And for me, at 6.0 million, they're both far too expensive - for a likely points return that will almost certainly be significantly lower than last year (at least, if you leave out any extra 'defensive points' they pick up; Gvardiol is likely to be much the stronger of the two on that; but neither of them are going to be amongst the top performers on this new metric).

Liverpool's new defensive signings Frimpong and Kerkez are attracting a lot of interest; but they're both much stronger in their attacking contribution than they are as defenders (Frimpong, bless him, really isn't a defender at all, and is probably rather being groomed as an eventual successor to Salah), and so they both might be at some risk of minutes-sharing with Bradley and Robertson. Van Dijk is obviously their most dependable option; but he doesn't tend to chip in attacking points very much, despite his huge aerial presence at set-pieces in the opposition box, and I always feel that his colleague Konate, if he can stay fit, is going to give you almost as many points for half a million less. But I'm not convinced that any Liverpool defender is this year going to offer enough value to be worth one of your club quota picks, when they have so many strong attacking options: Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, and Ekitike all seem very likely to be better picks from that club.

Marc Cucurella is obviously the most popular pick from the Chelsea defence, as he's probably the most nailed of their options, and sometimes offers a lot of attacking threat as well (although he is a bit of a naughty chap, and picks up a few too many cards for my liking). Gusto and James would be very tempting options too, if they weren't likely to be sharing minutes with each other (and it always feels like only a matter of time before Reece's hamstring pings again....)  Tosin might be a useful budget option at only 4.5; he might have a much better chance of a regular start now that Colwill's picked up a long-term injury (although new arrival Jorrel Hato could be the preferred replacement instead).

At Forest, we have the rare-ish phenomenon of their centre-backs being so outstanding that they easily eclipse their full-backs as the most desirable defensive option. Neco Williams doesn't have a secure start, and Ola Aina isn't pushed forward often enough to provide much of an attacking threat (although he's certainly got the capacity for that). But Milenkovic and Murillo are both likely to be amongst the top performers on the new 'defensive points', as well as favourites to keep a lot of clean sheets (Forest have had a bit of a ropey pre-season - but almost no-one could score against them!), and offering the occasional attacking threat. I might incline slightly towards the Brazilian - who carries the ball forward superbly, and is thus more likely to pick up the occasional assist and, even if he doesn't, will usually gain a slight edge in garnering bonus points; his colleague's numbers last year were boosted by a crop of headed goals, and I fancy he won't do quite that well again this time.

One fears that Newcastle may be badly unsettled by the ugly transfer saga surrounding Isak. And if they lose him (as now looks almost certain) and fail to secure a good replacement (also seeming dangerously likely) their prospects for the season could be derailed. Also, being back in the Champions League is likely to put a severe strain on their not-terribly-deep squad. So, I have all kinds of reservations about picking any of their players at the moment - reservations which have nothing to do with the quality of those players. Fabian Schar would usually be my favoured pick from the club: very dependable, and possibly the best goal-threat of any defender in the League, as he has a tremendous shot on him as well as being a good header of the ball. Dan Burn is a great all-rounder (and remarkably fair; for a big, scary, and somewhat clumsy-looking chap, he picks up very few cards); although, alas, there may be some doubts about how much he might get rotated with Sven Botman. Tino Livramento (now likely free of any risk of rotation with Trippier) and Lewis Hall (if he's shaken off the effects of a major injury last season) are tempting options too; but I worry that Hall may be priced out at 5.5 million (a pretty outrageous tag to put on someone who missed half of last season!).

At Palace, Daniel Munoz is obviously the top pick (we're probably lucky he was only priced at 5.5 rather than 6.0, after the season he's just had!); but Marc Guehi and Chris Richards are also tempting, being weirdly under-priced at just 4.5 million. The worry here, of course, is how disruptive the possible departure of Guehi would be.

At Everton, Tarkowski's frequently massive numbers on the new 'defensive contributions' metric is making him the most popular pick. Although I think his young partner Branthwaite is likely to do just as well (and be less of an injury risk), while full-back Jake O'Brien - one of the breakout stars of last season - is likely to offer a little more attacking threat, and is half a million cheaper at 5.0.

At Spurs, Pedro Porro's silky skills going forward beguile a lot of people; but in the past he hasn't actually been deployed in a very advanced role all that often (he had one real purple patch for goals and assists a couple of years ago, but that was during a handful of games when he was really playing as an outright winger because of injuries to all the other players who usually fill that position); Thomas Frank has, at times, seemed to like swashbuckling wingbacks, so that potential might be better unlocked in the Spaniard this season; but I worry that he's a bit of a big gamble at his price-point, probably not quite worth 5.5 million. Especially not when two of his colleagues, Udogie and Van de Ven, might produce as well or better, for only 4.5 million. I'd probably go for Van de Ven, as he's likely to hoover up lots of the new 'defensive points', and carries the ball forward so well, and often at pace, that he creates far more attacking threat than almost any other centre-back. (It's just a pity that his hamstrings seem to be so fragile. He's probably not someone you should be expecting to rely on season-long; just make the most of him, while you can.)

Although I am modestly optimistic about Manchester United's prospects for a substantial improvement this season, there's still too much uncertainty about their defence for me to fancy any picks from them. Diogo Dalot would have been the best option, but it now looks as though Amad Diallo might have displaced him as the favoured right wing-back. Patrick Dorgu hasn't yet found his feet at the club. And there still doesn't seem to be a settled back-three (although Noussair Mazraoui might be the most tempting option, as his versatility ensures that he could start almost every week - on the left, the right, or in the middle!).  I suspect I'll probably have a United defender by the end of the season; but for now, they're a wait-and-see.

Antonee Robinson is probably the best crosser of a ball among our current crop of full-backs. But, unfortunately, he hasn't yet recovered fitness after having a knee surgery at the start of the summer break. Also, of course, his output fell off a cliff in the second half of last season; and while an injury niggle might have been partly responsible for that, my greater worry is that Fulham are fundamentally too weak a club to maintain much consistency of performance over a long spell. They have been mostly managing to punch massively above their weight for the last few years under Marco Silva, but they're essentially a bottom-third side who just about manage to scrabble up into the top half - and that doesn't really make them a very tempting source of FPL picks from any position. I really like their Calvin Bassey too; but I wouldn't pick him until we see what Fulham's early-season defensive form shapes up like.

Bournemouth had a pretty impressive defence last season - but they've lost almost all of it; so, they're a completely unknown quantity going into this season. Sole survivor in central defence, Marcos Senesi, might be worth giving a thought, at only 4.5 million. And their new left-back, Adrien Truffert also looks very promising. But either of these would be hugely speculative picks - and they are better avoided at the start of the season.

Brighton's new left-back, the Belgian Maxim De Cuyper, is attracting a lot of FPL interest - but I'm a sceptic. He has racked up some very impressive attacking numbers - but that's only in the rather uncompetitive Belgian league. And he is, by all accounts, a pretty horrible defender. I'm not even convinced he'll start regularly for Brighton, unless all their other options are injured.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka has proven an extremely popular early pick this year, as a result of his hot flush at the end of last season, when he started getting forward a lot and supplying dangerous balls into the box (something he's not been at all known for in his career to date). He's an excellent one-on-one defender as well, so will probably do very well out of the new 'defensive points'. Unfortunately, I think West Ham's prospects for this season look fairly dismal: I'm not convinced by Potter as a coach, and they don't seem to have done anything to reinforce their squad yet. It's difficult to see them finishing far off the bottom - and, indeed, they might well go down, if any of the newly promoted sides prove to be half-decent this year. Again, I don't think you want to risk taking defenders from sides that are likely to struggle, and might lose a lot of games, concede a lot of goals.

Aaron Hickey at Brentford certainly looks the best 4.0 defender prospect on paper; but having hardly kicked a ball in two years, there must be doubts about whether he'll ever get back to the kind of level he was showing in his prime - or indeed if he will be able to reclaim the starting slot at right-back,.. or if the new manager will allow him to advance so aggressively down the flank as he did before. Burnley's new left-back, Quilindschy Hartman (crazy name, crazy guy...), is probably the best of the rest, and will presumably be an immediate starter. Leeds's Gabriel Gudmundsson and Burnley's Maxime Esteve also look set to be nailed starters at only 4.0 million, but I worry that they might be the sort of desperate budget-enabler picks that prove to be a false economy. It seems pretty unlikely that any defender from one of the promoted sides will keep many clean sheets or low goals-against tallies,.... or do that much under the new 'defensive points' regime, or pick up bonus points, or anything else....  You need the prospect of more than 1 or 2 points per game, even from a second back-up defender!

So, that's about it for the defensive half of the equation....

I'll try to get around to a 'Part Two' on the more attacking options this afternoon.

How to choose the INITIAL SQUAD - my ultimate 'How To...'

In the earliest days of this blog, in 2024, I dropped a couple of short preliminary posts on choosing the initial squad: one on the constraints of the budget, and one on the need to abandon any thought of trying to pick a team that would be balanced and workable in real life (all left-footers, all wide players, all short and cross-eyed.... it's all good: the only thing you're interested in is their Fantasy points return, not how thay might gel together on the pitch in reality).

Then I followed up with this,  the would-be complete 'How to....'.  

I'll probably repost this largely unchanged at the start of every season.

Of course, many of the specific examples first used in 2024 will be less and less relevant in subsequent years. I'll try to weed out/update most of them; but a few may remain - use your common sense.

Some basic principles....

Focus on midfield

Midifielders get a point more than 'forwards' (5, rather than 4) for every goal scored. They also tend to be rather more likely than most of the game's 'forwards' to register assists.... and pick up bonus points. And, unlike 'forwards', they get free extra points for clean-sheet bonuses (only 1 per game; but that can add up nicely over the season, especially in teams with stronger defences). And, outside of the top handful of high-priced players, they tend to be rather cheaper than the 'forwards', sometimes quite a lot cheaper. So, attacking midfielders with exactly the same number of attacking contributions as the leading 'forwards' tend to get 20 or 30 or 40 pts per season more! The best midfield options in the game usually offer you more total points, and certainly more points-per-pound, than 'forwards'. (There are rarely more than 3 forwards in the top 10 or 12 overall FPL points scorers; often, only 1....)

And the formation rules only allow you to play a maximum of 7 midfielders and forwards. So... you really want to play 5 goalscoring midfielders as often as you can (and thus only 2 forwards; sometimes only 1 forward!).

The game generously classifies a lot of outright forwards as 'midfielders' (they claim they do this on the basis of last season's 'heat maps' for the players, but I'm not convinced...): Salah, Gakpo, Cunha, Mbeumo, Ndiaye, Semenyo, etc. There are also a lot of wingers who may score - and assist - almost as much as (or even more than) most of the game's 'forwards': Gordon, Barnes, Saka, Martinelli, Kudus, Kulusevski, Johnson, Neto, Mitoma, Bailey, Malen, Garnacho, Diallo, Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Doku, Bobb, Kluivert, etc., etc.  And then there are some highly creative midfielders who also offer a very strong goal threat: Palmer, Wirtz, Eze, Foden, Cherki, Bernardo Silva, Odegaard, Bruno Fernandes, Maddison (when he gets fit again), Gibbs-White, Rogers, etc.

Usually only a few of the very best 'forwards' will outscore any of these attacking midfield options. So, the midfield is where you need to focus most of your attention - and most of your budget.

Two playing goalkeepers, but not too expensive

Now, some people favour the strategy of taking a main keeper and a back-up keeper from the same club, to save a little money (a lot of the second-string keepers are only 4.0 million); the thinking being that you'll have a guaranteed instant replacement if your first choice should get injured or dropped.

There's something to be said for that. But many of the second strings aren't actually that good; and having a keeper change forced on you in the middle of the season naturally disrupts the rest of the team a bit, especially the defence; so, you might well get significantly weaker returns from that back-up keeper.

And more importantly, you probably want to try to keep even the best keepers away from the toughest fixtures: anyone could ship a ton of goals away to Liverpool or City or Arsenal, or maybe Newcastle and Spurs and Villa too... or any team that's currently in a hot run of scoring form. So, having two decent keepers that you can rotate around the most daunting fixtures can be very valuable. (at least 20-30 extra points per season; even if it doesn't also save you a few times from starting without a keeper, if your first choice has an unexpected problem, and you've left yourself without a back-up).

Almost all defences do much better in home games as well. So, it's worth considering a pair of keepers who largely alternate their home and away fixtures. This page on the FPL site shows you which teams are exactly fixture-matched in this way. But there are other combinations that work pretty well most of the time - for fixture difficulty as well as home/away advantage. Last year the Leno/Areola pairing fitted together very nicely.

So, I think trying to save money with a non-playing second keeper is a dangerous ploy, a false economy. But you also don't want to spend too much money on keepers. They don't score that many points overall (Jordan Pickford was the only one who made it into the 'Top 25' overall points-scorers in FPL in the last few seasons; often there are no keepers that high up the ranking...). And there tends to be less of a differential points spread between keepers: the top player occasionally opens up a bit of a gap on the field, but it's rarely more than 15-20 points, often a lots less. Hence, it's difficult to justify paying a 'premium' price for one of the very best keepers, when some of the 5.0 and 4.5-million-pound options will probably do almost as well (and maybe, if you're lucky, even a little better). [That holds for the start of the season, at least. In the last few months, you might have some more budget to spare - because you've grown your squad value, or because some of the premium players you started with have lost form or got injured - and you can then perhaps consider upgrading to one of the top-scoring goalkeepers.]

Also... Beware of keepers from the top sides! It is paradoxical, but... Arsenal in particular are so good defensively that their keepers rarely get called upon to make saves. And the 'saves' points can actually be as important - or even more important - to a goalkeeper's points total as his clean sheets. Teams down in the relegation zone often have keepers who produce quite decent points, even if they hardly ever manage to keep a clean sheet.

Beware of central defenders

Clean sheets are, of course, hugely valuable. Although in recent seasons, with Liverpool and even City losing a bit of their defensive solidity, there haven't been as many of them. Maybe only one or two teams will post really good numbers for that. Last year, only Forest, Arsenal, Everton (?!), and Palace managed more than 10 clean sheets,... and not many more; Arsenal's 18 in 24/25 was a freak we're not likely to see soon repeated.  But some lower-ranked teams can be unexpectedly resilient; and if no-one's managing better than 11 or 12, teams that might grab 8 or 9 suddenly come into contention.

However, all members of a defence get the same points for a clean sheet - regardless of how good a defender they are. (Most people would agree that William Saliba is Arsenal's best defender, and maybe the best defender in the League now - but he doesn't get any more points for that!)  So, the top-scoring defenders are almost always full-backs, especially very advanced full-backs (or outright wing-backs), because they offer a better prospect of some attacking returns - assists, and maybe even the occasional goal - as well as defensive actions. Admittedly, the additional 'defensive points' newly introduced this season could shake things up a bit; but while it will boost the overall returns for a lot of solid central defenders - but previously fairly unappealing picks for FPL - it's unlikely to elevate them above those who provide strong possibilities of attacking returns.

There are exceptions to this. There have been some defenders who mysteriously hoover up the bonus points every week (even when their side has lost!), because they get on the ball and play a lot of passes in addition to completing a lot of defensive actions: Cristian Romero was a prime example of that early on in his Spurs career, but subsequently dropped off a lot in their disastrous 24/25 campaign. (But NB: changes to the system for allocating bonus points introduced into FPL in 24/25, with defenders and keepers much more heavily penalised for conceding, means they now get far fewer bonus points in games where they don't keep a clean sheet; again, the new 'defensive points' might counteract that to a small extent - but last season, defenders got far fewer bonus points than previously.)  Some central defenders don't just step up into deep midfield occasionally, but go marauding all the way forward and contribute around the edge of the opposition box too (Antonio Rudiger was a monster for this at Chelsea a few seasons ago!). Some are so aerially dominant that they become 'agents of chaos' in attacking set-pieces and pick up a surprisingly large number of assists and goals that way (the late, great Tyrone Mings was a prime exponent; can he be again, now that he's finally back from that ACL injury?). And of course, most central defenders can occasionally be a goal-threat at set pieces (but you shouldn't get too carried away by that; very few defenders score more than 2 or 3 goals in a season; and even fewer do that in successive seasons; when defenders score 2 or 3 goals in a short space of time, it's almost always a transient streak.... not an emerging trend!).

Finally, as with keepers, there isn't usually that much of a differential points-spread between defenders (so, to some extent, it barely matters who you pick!). There are often a few players who are well ahead of the pack: we've seen some exceptional returns in recent years from Cancelo, Alexander-Arnold, and Trippier. But there's not usually all that much to choose between the best of the rest: two years ago Ben White ended up well out in front, but last year his appearances were heavily curtailed by injury. In general, very few defenders average better than 3.5 to 4.0 points per game, with 4.5 usually being the very best; and the extra points for defenders this year won't get that up by more than 0.25 to 0.5 points per game. Hence, it's very difficult to justify spending a premium price for a defender. You might go for one or two of them - people like Gabriel, Saliba, or Van Dijk, if they look likely to be fit and in-form. But there are usually a lot of good options at the 5.0 and 4.5 price points - and even a few likely starters at only 4.0 million.

Beware of central midfielders (BUT... they may have their place!)

Rodri and Caicedo and Rice are fantastic players, yes, fan favourites, and crucial to the way their teams play.... but they're not likely to get anywhere near the top of the FPL scoring charts. [Although, Declan Rice, increasingly being allowed a more progressive role last season, and becoming more of a regular goal-threat, and a fair old monster for the 'defensive points' too, could be set to become one the dark horse picks of this season.]

You only get 5 midfield picks; and, as I outlined above, there are 20 or 30 possibilities who are regular goal-scorers - most of these should comfortably out-point even the best central defensive midfielders (if they stay fit and in-form...). Although, again, the new 'defensive points' might slightly alter this calculus, as a few central defensive midfielders could well earn 40 or so extra points like this.

And, yes, there might be exceptions.... (There are always some exceptions to every 'rule'!)  There are some central midfielders who are more box-to-box, and get involved in the attacking third as well quite a bit (e.g., Bruno Guimaraes or Alexis Macallister). There are some who at least sometimes play a much more advanced role - and/or may be on set-pieces or penalties. There may be others who are transitioning into a more progressive role where they will sometimes go on a bit of a scoring streak (e.g., Declan Rice). And there are some who have the happy knack of coming up with just a few goals a season, but somehow always in the most crucial games (Rodri!). Now, none of these are usually likely to be anywhere near the 'Top 10' FPL points-scorers in midfield, but... if you look at the points-per-pound return  (select the 'Value (season)' option for the display on the FPL stats page), you tend to find players like Rice, Rodri, Guimaraes, Soucek and Andreas Perreira up near the top of that chart.

So...  for the 4th or 5th midfield spot, when your budget's starting to get a bit thin, players like this are worth considering. But you certainly want at least 3 of your midfield picks - and, if possible, 4 or 5! - to be regular goal-scorers. And, as the season goes on, you'll be looking to rotate new players into these last two slots pretty regularly, to try to keep taking advantage of players who are hitting a short spell of hot form.

Value-for-money

That 'Value (season)' stats listing on the FPL website is one of the most valuable tools for squad selection. You always want to be thinking about getting the most bang-for-your buck from every pound of your squad budget; and this page will help you make choices to do that. If you're torn between two options, bear in mind that the one with the higher points total last season might be unreasonably priced. If his rival has only slightly fewer points, but a much better points-per-pound return - he's probably the one you should go with.

However, some of the super-premium players are worth having, regardless of their unimpressive points-per-pound. Haaland's points-per-pound figures are bound to be fairly terrible. Salah's aren't great either, even last season, despite his record-shattering total. But players like these offer you the prospect of a huge overall points return. Moreover, they return uncommonly reliably, 'blank' relatively infrequently; and they usually produce quite a few really huge hauls each season - which it can be painful to miss out on.  Palmer and Saka, and perhaps a few others, now seem to have joined this elite corps of players too - players who are 'above budget': you have to consider including them regardless of how much they cost or what their points-per-pound value is.

But as you go through the selection process, the value-for-money consideration becomes more and more important. When you only have 5 or 6 or 7 slots left to fill, and your budget is down to perhaps 30 or 35 milllion, it is absolutely vital to target the players who offer you the highest points-per-pound.

Forwards??

The approach to selection here varies greatly from year to year. A few seasons back, we had a weird situation where almost none of the weaker teams had a decent forward, and just about all of the more promising options (Vardy, Bamford, Ings, Calvert-Lewin,...) missed most of the season with injuries - leaving Harry Kane as just about the only worthwhile forward pick for long periods. There happened to be a lot of high-returning attacking full-backs that year too, so we found ourselves often going with a 4-5-1, or occasionally even a 5-4-1 formation - but that's a bit of a freak.

Three years ago, it was looking like Haaland was an inevitable pick for everyone, massively ahead of any of his rivals (except perhaps for Kane, who was getting ready to depart). But then Ollie Watkins began to show that he was a significant force too; and the season before last he actually out-pointed Haaland (though only because the lanky Viking missed two months of the season with injury). Alexander Isak has also established himself well ahead of the field, but is unfortunately mired in an unseemly transfer wrangle at the beginning of this season, and likely to be unavailable for a while. 

Since, as I explained above, it's usually not a good idea to start more than 2 of your strikers (as there are plenty of goalscoring midfielders to choose from, who give you more points for the same goal contribution - and often for slightly less money too), you can probably save money with your third striker pick and go for a promising prospect in the 5.5-6.5 range. [As it happened, there were so many good performances in this price bracket last year - with veterans Wood, Welbeck, Raul and Vardy suddenly showing great form again early in the season, as well as strong newcomers Delap, Strand Larsen, and Evanilson - that you could in fact take all three strikers from the cheap end of the spectrum. With so many of the usually high-scoring midfielders having a spotty start to the year, it even became attractive to start all three strikers quite often! This, again, was a real freak circumstance. 3-5-2 is almost invariably the strongest default formation; 3-4-3, only an occasional variation,]

I feel that the 'mid-priced' forwards are often priced out of contention, if the premium/super-premium options (or one of them anyway) really prove irresistible, and there's lots of good value to be found in the lower price brackets. This year, however, with Jarrod Bowen being reclassified as a 'forward' for the first time, Joao Pedro looking very dangerous immediately on joining Chelsea, and three promising newcomers joining the league in Ekitike, Sesko, and Gyokeres - there's rather more choice in this category than there has been for some time.

These days, whether or not we feel we can afford Haaland (plus 2 or 3 other top-price players, such as Salah, Palmer or Saka) is invariably the huge pre-season question for FPL enthusiasts.

Beware false economies - you NEED your bench!

A lot of FPL managers fall in thrall to the concept of the 'budget enabler': the idea that it's worth getting a few players at the cheapest possible price-point because it will give you a little bit more to spend on your starting eleven. Now, sure, it is useful - necessary, even - to have a few very cheap players to make the budget work for you. (This year, I'd probably go for 2 goalkeepers at only 4.5 each, 1 or perhaps even 2 defenders at 4.0, and most of the rest at 4.5; and a very cheap third forward and fifth midfielder.)

But a lot of people just grab blindly for the very cheapest options, without giving any thought to whether they bring any value to the squad. As I said above, every pound of that initial 100 million is important; every single one of them needs to be put to work. If you have a bench stacked with reserve-team players who will never get a start, you are storing up trouble for yourself!

The rate of injuries in the modern game has become insane over the last few years. Even 15 or 20 years ago, serious hamstring problems would only crop up a few times a season at any club, and ACL tears were quite a rarity across the entire League; last year, almost every single club had 3, 4, 5 players ruled out with injuries like that at any one time. I once had to replace 55 players over a season because of injury (about 20 more than my previous worst season!); and that was serious injuries, not just minor knocks that might sideline someone for 2 or 3 gameweeks. You might get some sort of injury problem almost every week.... sometimes 2 or 3 or 4 in one week! And they often happen at the last-minute (even sometimes in the pre-match warm-ups!!), giving you no opportunity to transfer the affected player out. If you don't have a playing bench, sooner or later - probably sooner - you are going to find yourself putting out a team of only 10 (or 9, or 8...) men, and haemorrhaging points as a result.

And with so much pressure on the (these days, entirely inadequate) number of Free Transfers, you can't afford to waste those on short-term changes: if a player has a minor knock, or a suspension, or is likely to be rested for one weekend after some gruelling European ties, or just faces a particularly unpromising fixture next... you want to drop him to the bench, not move him out of the squad. That kind of thing also happens a lot.

So, by all means look for some ultra-cheap players to fill out the squad. But make sure they are regular starters - or at least have a decent chance of becoming so.  And try to get the best players you can: there are still choices to be made, even at these very low price-points. And it is worth paying just a little bit extra for a bench player who can actually give you a chance of some decent points, if you need to call on him.

Have an eye to 'investment picks'

On a related point to that last one... Another fatal drawback to choosing cheap players who don't play is that they become toxic assets. A lot of managers have probably included them because they mistakenly believe that they will play, or at least hope that they will; and they will start selling them off when they discover that they are nowhere near to getting a start (or they just discover early on how badly they need a proper bench!) - and their prices will crash.

It is essential to try to steadily boost your squad value - so that, after a few months, you might have an extra 2 or 3 million pounds available with which to upgrade your squad... perhaps get in one more of those coveted premium-price players that you couldn't quite afford at the start of the season (and/or upgrade your bench a little!).

In order to boost squad value, you need to avoid any players whose price is likely to drop (or quickly get rid of them if their price starts dropping), but seek out players whose price is likely to rise. These are what I call 'investment picks'. You might not actually fancy them for a long-term hold; you might never put them in your starting eleven, except in an emergency - but they can help you to grow your budget. The best prospects for this are usually fairly cheap. (Cheap players are usually lower-owned initially, but also more attractive as new acquisitions because of their accessibility. And price increases are mainly dependent on the percentage change in ownership - so, a relatively low-owned player who quickly gains 100,000 or 200,000 more owners is likely to shoot up in price.)  They are often conspicuously under-priced - either because they had a disappointing season last year (perhaps just because of injury absences, rather than actually playing poorly when they did turn out), or because they're new to the League (transfers in from overseas, or promoted youth team players) and no-one really knows how good they might be yet. And they're often on the brink of breaking into the first team, but it's not clear if they're quite there yet. If you can correctly anticipate that someone is going to get a run in the first team because of an injury or a crash in form for the usual starter.... you've got a good 'investment pick'. 

Watch out for budget 'windfalls'

A lot of people seem to be grumbling at the moment that there aren't as many good options available at the lowest price-points as there have been in some previous seasons (I'd disagree with that, but...). Perhaps the main reason for that is that it's still too early. Late transfer activity usually brings in some very good new potential picks, often attractively priced down at around 5.0 million, or even 4.5 million - or, occasionally, if you're very, very lucky, at 4.0 million. The 'poster boy' for this phenomenon is, of course, Cole Palmer, who went from perpetual bench-warmer at City to instant Ballon d'Or fodder with Chelsea (well, you know, if they'd had any European football that year...). But in recent years we've also seen Areola's sudden promotion over Fabianski in goal for West Ham, and Neco Williams making an eve-of-season transfer from the Liverpool bench to a start with Nottingham Forest. So, 4.0-million pound starters, even, occasionally, quite good ones, can just drop in your lap out of nowhere right before the Big Kick-Off.  Be patient, and keep your fingers crossed.

In particular, keep an eye on low-key domestic moves. Very often 'Big Six' clubs will sell or loan out some of their surplus squad players or rising youth team stars to one of the lower-table or newly promoted sides: these can be particularly useful low-budget picks. But such moves often happen very late in the day; and they don't usually make big headlines.

And FORGET about 'differentials'!!!

This is another topic that should one day get a post all of its own (maybe a whole series of 'em!). Suffice it to say that I find this one of the most worthless, the most exasperating, the most overused and misused of all FPL jargon terms. The problem with it is that most managers seem to have a very muddled idea of what it really ought to mean: for most of them, in fact, it seems to be primarily interpreted as: 'Avoid good players because a lot of other managers will have them...'  This is, of course, self-harming nonsense. Utterly BATSHIT CRAZY, in fact.

People glance through the forums where FPL obsessives (like me, I know...) are frenziedly sharing their draft squads (already: long before the season starts!), and if they see someone with several of the same players they have, they moan, "Oh, he's got ALL the same players as me." (NO, he doesn't; he might have 6 or 7 or 8 of the same players; but that's it.)  Then he finds one or two more who also seem to have some of the same players as him, and moans again, "EVERYONE has the same squad as me."  (NO, they don't. A lot of managers may have many of the same players as you.... but NOT  EVERYONE.)

Even the guys or gals who are most like you in their picks probably have no more than 7 or 8 of the same players. That means you have at least 3 unique picks in your starting eleven. And probably an entirely different bench. And maybe different captain and/or vice-captain picks as well. Your teams/squads are perfectly well differentiated. Even across the whole 10 million or so teams that will be regustered over the next few weeks, it is extremely unlikely that there will ever be more than a relatively small handful - and in many gameweeks, absolutely none at all - that are an exact match for yours. (And probably only ever for the starting eleven, not the whole squad. And that will only ever be a one-off, for one gameweek. NOBODY is going to duplicate your team for the entire season,... or even for two weeks in succession.)

Stop fretting about how many other people might be choosing a particular player. Just choose the players you think are going to bring in the most points... and see how you get on.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE  FOR THE SEASON AHEAD!!!

NO-ONE is a 'set-and-forget'

 

It is common in FPL for managers to suppose that their best players can be relied on for the entire season.  Indeed, many of the more naive FPL managers seem to expect that almost their entire squad should be able to be relied upon for the entire season!  Newsflash: it ain't so.

Now, if we go for a super-premium player like Salah or Haaland or Palmer, then, yes, we hope they're going to stay fit and in-form all season.

As I outlined the other day, in order to even approach justifying their enormous price-tags, players like these have to satisfy some extraordinarily demanding criteria - and, really, almost none ever do; not over the season as a whole.

Last year, Mo Salah enjoyed a freakishly good season, even by his freakisly high standards, and shattered the record for total FPL points in a season. But that was a real outlier of a performance, an order-of-magnitude better than even he has managed previously. That might be the only occasion in FPL history when a player has unequivocally been worth owning - and starting - in every single game. (And even then, he had a bit of a tailing-off in the latter part of the season that, really, made him no longer essential....)

In most seasons, Salah has suffered the odd little injury niggle, or a few fallow spells here and there; and every other year, he goes missing mid-season to take part in the African Cup of Nations. Last year, Haaland suffered a long run of poor returns as City's form began to crumble, and then had a couple of injury absences. At the very beginning of the season he was outstanding, and he started to do quite well again in the closing months; but for a long run in the middle, it was sheer madness to have hung on to him. Likewise, Palmer started the year very hot, but... his points returns tanked after Christmas, and it proved unwise to have retained him too far into the New Year.

Those are somewhat extreme examples. admittedly. But the general point holds: even the very best players rarely escape injuries or major dips in form in some phase of the season.

And even if they maintain modestly consistent performances and points returns, the competitive landscape around them constantly shifts: there may be other players who come into such hot form for a while that they're worth bringing in at the expense of your 'best' current players - even, perhaps, a Salah or a Haaland.

It is unwise to allow yourself to get wedded to the idea of set-and-forget players, picks from your initial squad that can be left in place all season. You never know who's going to suffer an injury or a loss of form, fleeting or long-term.  Some players may end up staying fit and being consistent enough to be worth keeping all season; but you can't predict that before the season starts - it's just a pleasant surprise, not something you should expect to rely on.

Although FPL managers tend to most often dream about their key attacking players having a dream season where they could be a set-and-forget, in fact it's usually only defenders or goalkeepers who wind up sticking in your squad for all 38 gameweeks.

This is partly because they tend to get injured rather less often than attacking players who have to run around a lot more. But it's more down to the fact that there isn't really a lot to choose between them: the differential points spread between the 'best' and 'second best' defenders (and keepers) is usually relatively small. And the best returners will usually be fairly consistent across the season; so, you can't often obtain much benefit by rotating in fresh players who've hit better form (as you most definitely can in the 'midfield' and 'forward' positions!).

But even here, injuries - and suspensions (far more common for defenders) - are a factor; and, even more so, shifts in fixture difficulty, since the attacking strength of opponents is a main determinant of defensive returns. Often you'll be able to hang on to one of your keepers and one or two defenders for the whole season; but rather more often, you won't.

It is a very RARE - and very, very lucky - circumstance if you manage to hang on to any of your initial squad for the whole season (other than Salah, in one of his most god-like years....).

And in fact, if you do end the season with a number of ever-presents, it's more likely a sign not of exceptional good fortune, but of laziness and stubbornness - of having obstinately (or inadvertently?!) hung on to players that, at some point, you really should have ditched.