How should you judge if your squad is any GOOD?

A little while ago, I took a moment to diss an online gizmo that claims to be using some sort of 'AI algorithm' to evaluate people's FPL squads. (It is - unsurprisingly - utter nonsense: not even bad, just fake.)

One of my main gripes was that it does not divulge any hint of the criteria on which it supposedly bases its ratings.

So... that got me to thinking, on what sort of factors should we try to assess how good our squad is looking for the start of the season?

I would suggest the following:

1)  Is the squad balanced for budget?

Do you have a good spread of player prices, some shrewd picks in all positions and across the low, middle and upper portions of the price spectrum? Having too many players from any one of those strata is probably not going to work.

2) Have you maximised your value-for-money?

As I said the other day in my post on picking a squad [link again below], you are not so constrained by budget for your top-end picks; but the further down the roster you go - money running very short as you approach the last half dozen or so selections - making sure you have good points-per-pound potential from every player is vital.

A related point I think I omitted then (which probably deserves its own post sometime) is that it's also worth considering overall price differential patterns - asking yourself not just 'Have I got a player with an excellent points-per-pound potential?' but 'Have I got the best points-per-pound player for the money I have left to spend here?'  This isn't entirely straightforward, because you find that the distribution of points return is uneven between different position categories and across different segments of the price spectrum: sometimes a particular price increment makes very little difference to the points returns available in a particular position category; elsewhere, you may find that the same price increment can make a substantial difference. You may well be surprised to discover on closer examination that it's a mid-priced midfielder or a semi-premium defender who will actually give you the biggest lift in points for an extra half-million or million pounds spent.

3)  Have you avoided 'false economies'?

I warned in my long post last week on 'How to pick the initial squad' that going for 'enablers' just because they're super-cheap tends to be a destructive strategy: players who never actually get on the pitch - or are terrible when they do - will soon disillusion their original ownership, and drop in price as a sell-off begins, leaching away your precious squad value  Even at the lowest price-points, there are some players who are nevertheless likely to start, occasionally even some who are quite good; and even if they're not yet starters, they might have a good prospect of getting at least a few first-team games fairly soon. Make sure your low-budget picks are players like this, not perpetual reserves.

(And if you take a chance on going with a non-starting back-up goalkeeper - which I wouldn't recommend! - make sure you get the best one possible, and one who is definitely first-in-line to take over if his starter should get injured or dropped.)

4)  Do you have some favourable rotation prospects for goalkeeper and defence?

Again, in the big 'How to....' post, I pointed out that keepers and defenders are best avoided in games where they might concede heavily; while, of course, there will also be games when they look likely to have much better prospects of a coveted clean sheet (and perhaps even an attacking contribution of some sort from the more progressive defenders); and in general, defending teams tend to do much better at home.  It is therefore very valuable to have a pair of keepers who largely alternate their home and away fixtures with each other.

And, since you'll generally only be starting 3 or 4 defenders, you have the option on your bench to rotate some of the defenders as well as your two keepers, trying to have the chance of optimising the fixtures of your starters each week. So, effectively spreading your defensive picks across clubs according to their pattern of home and away fixtures (and, if possible, their harder and easier fixtures as well) is a strong sign of a really well-chosen squad.

5)  Have you paid close attention to other possible implications of the fixtures?

Some clubs - even the leading ones - may have a dauntingly tough run of fixtures near the start of the season. Some are plunging into European competition after only a month, raising the prospect of fatigue and possible rotation for key players. Other clubs have particularly inviting fixture lists for the start of the season (Chelsea and Liverpool seem to have been particularly blessed this year!). So, while it's especially important to be able to steer your goalkeeeper and defenders away from particularly rough fixtures - and towards the ones where they may have a better chance of clean sheets - keeping an eye on the possible impact of shifting fixture difficulty is important across the whole team, and the whole squad.

6)  Have you spread risk?

Doubling or trebling up on teams, particularly in one area of the pitch, can be hugely risky, and is usually better avoided - at least at the start of the season, where there are so many uncertainties about what line-ups and tactics may be adopted, and what individual and team form is going to look like coming out of the summer break. So, it's better not to have too many players from one team - and definitely no more than one in the same position on the field.

And although promoted teams may offer some promising selections, particularly at the more budget end, most of us aren't really able to follow Championship football very much - so, we don't have a clear idea of what these players might be like until they've played their first few matches of this Premier League season. Moreover - sad as it is to say - in recent years most of the promoted sides have suffered from the huge gulf in class between the two leagues, haven't been able to adapt to the elevated intensity of the top flight, and have just served as punchbags for most of the established teams. So, again, it's probably best to steer clear of anyone from the promoted sides until we've seen some form from them - until they've reassured us that they're not going to be spanked every week and go straight back down.

Backing players from teams with new managers is also a big gamble, and one probably best avoided, as far as possible. It is likely that it may take Liverpool, Chelsea, Brighton, West Ham, and Leicester a month or two to find their feet this season.

7)  Have you taken some smart, carefully calculated gambles?

Although you generally want to avoid making too many big bets on unknown quantities (like whether Salah will immediately thrive again under Arne Slot, or whether Calafiori will be instantly integrated into the Arsenal back-four), it is worth taking a few calculated risks here and there. In particular, it's usually worth going for one or two players who might not look like surefire sensations - or perhaps not even guaranteed starters (although you really don't want to have more than one or two players who are at any risk of not being a regular first-pick) - but who offer a huge upside if they hit form (do they have the fixtures that will help with that??).

In addition to one or two such prospects in your main 11 - slightly less-fancied players, perhaps, that you have faith in to produce - you should also try to look out for one or two outright 'investment picks': players at the cheaper end of the scale who are only just emerging as prospects, and appear to be currently under-valued in the FPL pricing because they're not expected to get a regular start. If you believe that they are good enough to deserve some decent game time, even if it isn't a full 90 minutes every week, or, better, you can see that form and injury issues at their club make it very likely that they will soon get a run of starts, buy them - and enjoy watching their price go up as lots of other FPL managers come a little late to the party.

8)  Have you avoided obvious foot-shootings??

We all far too easily make some of our selection decisions... hastily, impulsively, without due thought or research... perhaps allowing ourselves to be influenced by peer pressure, the tide of modern social media, the 'sheep instinct' - if we see a lot of people making the same pick, we may assume they must be on to something and get tempted to follow along. That's almost always a bad idea.

Just to give one quick example, there has been a rush of Fantasy managers recently plumping for Brentford's Mark Flekken as their first-choice keeper. And that is kind of baffling - because there is nothing in his team's or his own form last year or in his stats to justify that choice; and he has the worst run of opening fixtures of any keeper this year. [I think I'll write one or two quick posts on classic examples of Bad Picks over the next week or so.]

There are a fair few more picks I see commonly on the forums at the moment that are obviously - or sometimes, not so obviously - BAD. If you're confident you've dodged any of those.... you're good to go.

In fact, if you've pondered all of the above considerations, and you can honestly say that you've ticked all the boxes - then, congratulations.  You probably do have a pretty damn good squad!

But you shouldn't have one YET (this first posted on... 3rd August, two weeks before the season gets underway), it's way too soon.  Remember what I said yesterday about the wisdom of keeping away from FPL, not giving it any thought.... until just before the Big Kick-Off.