BAD PICKS (And why people make them)

I thought I'd go over some of the most obviously AWFUL picks that seem to be very popular in FPL at the moment, dissecting why it probably is that people are coming to make such poor choices.

Of course, the No. 1 'Bad Pick' of the moment, by a mile, is goalkeeper Matt Turner. He's the most popular GK currently, with nearly 25% ownership - that is just gob-smacking. 

Usually with a bad keeper pick, you make jokes like "He deserves to be 3rd or 4th choice at his club. They're probably going to demote him to the youth team soon - or sell him." But with Turner, the usual resources of humour fail. That is actually TRUE. He is nowhere near a start at Forest: already third-in-line, at best - and they're said to be looking to acquire Aaron Ramsdale as their new No. 1.

So, WHY has this happened? How have so many people come to pick a player who is so utterly and completely VALUE-LESS?

1)  Turner

Reason:  He is the highest-ranked 4.0-million-pound keeper, on last year's points returns.

Yep, he did actually get some starts last year; played nearly half the season in fact. But his points during that time were terrible. And he was deservedly dropped - twice. He now looks unlikely to feature in the Premier League again - not just for Forest, but for any club ever.

People lamely say, 'Oh, well, it doesn't matter - for a back-up keeper, you can take anyone.'  NO - it does matter. Even at that 4.0 level, there are some keepers who are first-in-line to take over if anything happens to their starter. Some of them are quite decent, and might even have a chance of being promoted to the No. 1 spot. They bring some value to your squad; Turner doesn't. In fact, he represents negative value - because there's likely to be a big sell-off when people start to realise how useless an asset he is, and his price will suddenly drop.

If you only look at one stat - you'll make bad choices.  If you look at a stat without understanding what it's showing you - you'll make bad choices.  You need to know something of the history of how last season unfolded as well.

2)  Flekken

Reason:  He's the top-ranked 4.5-million-pound keeper on last year's points returns. But that's not a full reflection of his ability and FPL points potential. And he has horrible opening fixtures.

Flekken was new to the League last season, and he struggled to settle in at first. He improved in the second half of the season; but many analysts still feel he might be at risk of being replaced.

Brentford were in relegation trouble for much of last season, and although that was largely because of a huge injury crisis in their defence and they might bounce back this year, they are essentially a side who are struggling to maintain a lower mid-table ranking.

Most of the other keepers priced at 4.5 million missed a few games to injury last year, or only came in part-way through the season. That's why Flekken ended up with more points than them overall (though he's only 3pts ahead of Areola). They almost all did much better than him on saves-per-game and points-per-game. Flekken conceded 63 goals in the league last season, the second highest of any keeper. He had a terrible delta too; he let in 9 more goals than his xGC of 54 - that's a sign of a poor keeper.

And Brentford have possibly the worst early run of fixtures of any team: even their home opener against Crystal Palace might be tough; and they then face away trips to Liverpool, City and Spurs in GWs 2, 4, and 5.  You really don't want any keeper starting for you in matches like those, where there's a high likelihood of conceding multiple goals.

If you don't carefully compare someone to all the rivals in his position - you'll make bad choices. If you don't work out their relative returns-per-game as well as over the whole season - you'll make bad choices. If you don't check the fixture list - you'll make bad choices.

3)  Konsa

Reason:  Name recognition; recency bias. Konsa got some attention for his performances with resurgent Aston Villa last season. And people remember that he appeared in the Euros (he played one game!).

There are 70 or so defenders available at 4.5 million; and about a third of them are more attractive FPL prospects than Konsa. Thus, his current ownership level of 17.3% is quite baffling, hugely inappropriate.

Villa's defensive record last season wasn't that great: they conceded around 1.6 goals per game. Palace, Everton, Fulham, and even Bournemouth kept more clean sheets. (And, as a central defender, Konsa offers minimal chance of any additional points for attacking contributions.)

If you don't carefully compare someone to all the rivals in his position - you'll make bad choices. If you just plump for a familiar name - you'll make bad choices.

4)  Mainoo

Reason:  Name recogntion, recency bias; club loyalty, patriotic pride, over-enthusiasm about emerging talent.

Yes, Kobbie Mainoo was outstanding for Manchester United in the latter part of last season, and showed a lot of promise for England in his performances at the Euros. He likes to carry the ball forward, and is even capable of getting the occasional goal. That's all very exciting - at least for Manchester United and England; not so much for Fantasy Premier League.

Mainoo is a defensive midfielder, and those just don't tend to produce that many points; not as many anyway, as players who provide plenty of goals and/or assists. Even at his low 5.5-million-pound price-point, there are some hard-working bonus point-magnets like Andreas Perreira, McGinn and Pape Sarr (who also get among the goals a bit more than most players of their type); there are very talented creative players like Smith Rowe, Barkley, Elliott and McNeil; there are numerous goalscoring wingers like Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Iwobi, Sarabia, Adingra, Kluivert, Harrison and De Cordova-Reid; and even one outright forward, in the unfathomably reclassified Antoine Semenyo. Many - perhaps all - of those will outscore Kobbie Mainoo. So, it's very, very difficult to justify picking him, even if you need a 5.5-million midfielder.

If you choose someone based primarily on recent international performances - you'll make bad choices. If you don't think about how someone's position and style of play will limit their likely points return - you'll make bad choices.

5)  Havertz

Reason:  People see him ranked as the third highest-scoring 'forward' last year.

Very impressive, yes. Except that... perhaps they're forgetting that he was classified as a 'midfielder' in the game last year; so, he got 1 extra point for each of his 13 goals; and a lot more extra points for all of the team clean sheets that he was involved in; and quite possibly a few extra bonus points too. If you take that into consideration, he actually ranks only seventh. 

And a lot of his closest goalscoring rivals - like Isak, Cunha, and Mateta - missed big chunks of the season; most would agree that they look stronger attacking prospects than Havertz.

Admittedly, he didn't play every game either. And he played more as a midfielder for most of the first half of the season. So, it is reasonable to assume that if he continues in the 'false 9' role for the whole of this season, he might score a few more goals. But he'd need 7 or 8 more to equal his points tally of last year - does that really seem likely?

And Arteta, we know, loves to tweak things constantly. There can be no confidence that Havertz would remain in that role for the whole season, or that the team would continue to play in the same style they did last year. So, any projections of his goalscoring returns this year are very, very speculative - fraught with many uncertainties.

In fact, using Havertz as a 'false 9' always felt like an improvised solution, and the club was known to be seeking a new forward throughout the last year. Now, they appear to be close to completing the signing of Viktor Gyokeres from Sporting Lisbon - which will probably mean that Havertz drops back into midfield,... or maybe even ends up on the bench for much of the season.

If you don't take into account how changes in position classification can affect the points return - you'll make bad choices. If you don't take into account possible changes of personnel or tactics at the club - you'll make bad choices.

So, there we have it: my current  Top Five AWFUL Picks in FPL.  I'll share a few other - slightly more surprising - examples soon.