Showing posts with label Web recommendations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Web recommendations. Show all posts

Thursday, April 24, 2025

It HAD to be said....


Football Meta's amiable and insightful Cormac has become one of my favourite Youtube tactical analysts over the past year or so. And I was particularly glad to see him just drop this video, detailing the shortcomings of the dread 'building out from the back' philosophy. (For me, he doesn't really go far enough in his critque...)


I find this tiresome dogma, which has become almost universal in the Premier League during the past decade, is stifling the life out of the game - it is the new anti-football.


It is painfully dull to watch.

It imposes far too much pressure on keepers and defenders - which, I think, wears them down mentally, undermines their confidence, and utlimately tends to make them more error-prone not just in build-up, but in all aspects of their play. (Because mistakes by a keeper or his defenders often tend to be castastrophic, yielding a goal and perhaps costing the game, their errors are placed under far closer scrutiny than those of attacking players, and tend to be given more weight than their successful defensive actions. And when they are on the ball so much, in dangerous situations, and committing costly errors - or at least coming close to doing so - so often, in almost every game, these poor buggers are often now getting pilloried by the fans.... when it's really not their fault; it's down to their manager's style of play.)

And it is founded on what I believe is a fundamental misconception: the fearful, over-conservative conviction that restricting the opponent's chances is more important to ensuring victory than creating your own. (The problem here is that you cannot play football purely as a matter of statistics, because the element of chance can never be eliminated. Even if you can prevent your opponent from getting any clearcut chances [which is just about impossible], while you manage, say, 10 chances,.... your finishing might not be good enough to convert any of the 10 chances, while your frustrated opponent might yet produce a worldie of a goal out of nothing, or perhaps pick up a soft penalty. This approach does not guarantee wins; in fact, it makes them painfully hard to achieve. If you're content to accept a more free-flowing, 'chaotic' sort of game, in which both sides might enjoy something like 20 chances, you should be able to win - and win more easily, and by bigger margins - so long as you can defend the chances made against you better than the other side defends against yours.)

Even if the core philosophy behind it weren't so misguided, it is still wrong-headed in practical terms. Its supposed justification is encapsulated in the tiresome mantra: "The quicker it goes up, the quicker it comes back." Build-up from the back started because managers like Pep became afraid that long balls out from the goalkeeper were too often resulting in an immediate loss of possession, and the more patient approach was seen as being a way to hold on to the ball more effectively,.... and eat minutes off the clock.

However, that's a very questionable proposition. If your goalkeeper can kick accurately, and if you have some well-drilled routines to create different medium- and long-range passing options for him, and if you have very quick players who can run into space behind the opposing back line to chase down a long ball over the top, or big strong players who can win most of their aerial duels and hold the ball up until other teammates can link up with them,.... there's really not that much of a problem in retaining possession from a keeper's kick. Well, yes, it is always going to be a little risky; and you might end up losing possession perhaps as much of half of the time (at worst...). But so what? Losing possession in the opposition defensive third of the pitch shouldn't be a big deal. You ought to be set up for a quick counter-press to win the ball back again, or at least hamper the speed and ease with which the other side can start to move the ball back up the pitch. And even if they do start quickly on the counter, you should have good defensive midfielders who can snuff out most such moves in the middle of the park.

A loss of possession deep in the opponent's half isn't often going to result in a goalscoring chance against you. A loss of possession in your own final third, however, almost always does.

And we are seeing such turnovers during failed build-up play more and more often in recent years.



Perhaps when building-out-from-the-back first started to appear, there was some clearer benefit to it. It had the advantage of novelty in its favour; and most sides weren't equipped to counter it very well.

Teams were still often only playing with one outright forward, or at most two; and 'high pressing' wasn't yet much of a thing. So, a back-four, or even a back-three, usually had a comfortable numerical advantage in the first line, even without having the keeper step up into the back-line to create an additional passer - and sides playing out from the back could thus usually bypass initial pressure quite easily.

But now,.... many more teams are playing with a front-three,... and are regularly pushing one or more of their midfielders or advanced full-backs up on to the opposing back-line as well; sometimes, the numerical advantage is with the attacking team. And even though it mostly still isn't, pressing has become much more sophisticated and well-drilled: teams will choose their moments to press most vigorously, saving their energy for when it can be most effective, most devastating; and they'll target particular players or areas of the pitch, so that, even though they are outnumbered across the whole back-line, they can quickly achieve a crucial overload in the area around the ball.

The slow build-up idea might have 'worked' up to a point, when it was a surprising innovation. But things have moved on, the game has caught up with it - and overtaken it. 

Any tactical idea becomes limiting, self-damaging if it is too obvious, too predictable. And we now see so many managers who are so insistent on the slow build-up that they almost never stray from it, never allow their players to vary the way they play out. And that makes them very easy to 'read', easy to press,... easy to nick the ball off in dangerous positions.

I'm not sure that building-out-from-the-back ever really worked all that well. But it has now clearly become an absolute liability for many teams.


And did I mention, it's SO FUCKING BORING to watch? Aesthetics matter; this is 'the beautiful game', after all. Most fans, I'm sure, would far rather see their team come out on the losing end of a 4-3 humdinger of a game occasionally than watch them grinding out arid 1-0 and 2-0 wins most weeks. I know I would, anyway.


I think, I hope we are now seeing the last days of ponderous slow build-up from the back, in favour of more diverse, dynamic approaches to moving the ball forward from your own penalty area. It's been a long time coming. Too, too long....

Friday, March 28, 2025

He's back!

Like many football fans, I've been feeling rather bereft over the last few weeks - since the unhappy news broke that Adam Clery was quitting the FourFourTwo Youtube channel that he'd made essential viewing over the last 18 months.

Now it's emerged that, in partnership with The Independent newspaper, he's launching his own Youtube venture, The Adam Clery Football Channel (ACFC), where we'll be getting more of the chirpy, irreverent tactical analysis videos we've come to love. (It looks like he might still be working with FourFourTwo occasionally as well - but on more 'magazine'-type pieces, mini-documentaries rather than game analysis.)

I'm pleased to see that his first posting on the new channel concurs with my own positive impressions of Thomas Tuchel's debut in charge of England....


For those who don't know.... Adam is, as we say in Britain, a top bloke: unpretentious, down-to-earth, a regular guy - but also very shrewd about his football. He's become the 'gateway drug' for tactical analysis videos. There are other guys out there who will go into more detail about particular patterns of play, or how a team seeks to morph its formation between different phases of possession and so on; but if you just want to understand why Team X is doing so well recently, or how Team W has fallen away, or why the weekend's Y-Z derby game ended as it did... Adam's your man. He's brisk, breezy, accessible - with just the right amount of silly, self-deprecating humour to help hold your attention across a discussion that will often stretch to 12 or 14 minutes or so. His videos - sometimes on teams, sometimes on individual players, but mostly breaking down particular big game outcomes - are always both entertaining and enlightening, and I cannot recommend them highly enough. Do go and check them out.


The engagingly daft little 'teaser' vid for the new channel that he posted a few days ago is a fine example of the man's unique style.


Sunday, August 11, 2024

How to get BETTER at FPL

An FPL manager strains his brain with having so much to think about!


Yes - a lot of these points are going to be basically the opposite of what I said last week in my post about the most common reasons 'Why people are BAD at FPL'. But I'll try to put a bit of a different spin on some things. And I hope this will still prove useful.



1)  Watch more football

There really is no substitute for it. Watch as many full games as you can (including other competitions, like the European games and domestic Cup rounds); watch good round-up shows with some solid punditry (BBC's Match of the Day is my oxygen....).  Learn what you can from the games themselves - before you start thinking about looking for advice or stats or whatever; all those other possible inputs should only ever be supplements to your own understanding of how the season is unfolding.


2)  Watch some tactical analysis

However shrewd you are at observing the finer details of the game, there are always going to be things you miss because of the limitations of TV coverage (limited view, limited replays,.. often inept, distracting commentary...) - especially if you're only able to watch brief highlights. I think it's incredibly useful to try to gain additional insights from experts in football - rather than 'experts' in FPL (see my third point, below).

There are some excellent tactical analysts on Youtube now. My favourite is Adam Clery of the FourFourTwo channel (only a year old, but it rapidly established itself as essential viewing for me during the past season). I also really like JJ Bull of The Athletic, Football Meta, and Football Made Simple. But Adam is The King - accessible, breezy, funny, but very, very perceptive in his breakdowns of team set-up and performance.


3)  Don't pay any attention to so-called FPL 'experts'

There are so many self-promoted, self-important would-be 'gurus' out there - the best of whom are no more insightful or persuasive than any of the rest of us who've been taking the game fairly seriously for a number of years; the worst of them are just idiots. Anyhow, you should always....


4)  Trust your own judgement

This is not a game you should play in pursuit of glorious prizes (because, with so many millions of players, your chances of ever winning anything are almost zero; and the prizes are SHIT, anyway....); nor for achieving a 'high ranking' (because - shock, horror! - finishing in the top 100,000 requires more luck than skill, and isn't much evidence of anything). 

You should only play to see how well you can do, to test yourself against self-set targets.... and to see how good a judge of a player you really are.

Relying on the recommendations of 'FPL experts', or asking online for help with your team.... is just cheating, really. And it's self-harming. Most of these guys don't know any better than you. And you'll never get any better if you don't make the effort to make your own choices.


5)  Learn how to use stats

Above all, be a bit more careful and thorough about how you use them. I see so many people on the online forums who grasp at one or two metrics to try to justify a pick, and convince themselves that these figures represent an unassailable argument in their favour; and oh so often, these stats are the wrong ones, or their 'positive' indication crumbles to nothing when compared with other, more relevant figures.

If you're not mathematically inclined, stats can just be bewildering and confusing, and it might be better to steer away from them altogether. I don't think they're nearly as helpful as paying close attention to the actual game action each week. But they can be very useful, if you use them appropriately: DON'T assume that they provide any easy or clear-cut answers - they do not.


6)  Be self-critical, and open to change

One of the biggest faults in all FPL managers (because it's a universal and deep-seated human fault) is a need to believe that we are right, and a consequent reluctance to acknowledge when we might have been wrong.

Even before you make a pick, you should take a break - for an hour, or a day - to pause and reflect on it; to try to think of other possible perspectives on the decision, to explore reasons why you might be wrong to want this player.

And every week, you should be asking yourself very carefully what isn't working out in your squad, and why

There are some players you get very fond of; some players that you are absolutely convinced are going to turn their form around at any moment and start producing big points in the next game. Those players you feel most confident in.... are probably the ones you need to think hardest about letting go.



That's more than enough for one post.  I daresay some other 'tips' may occur to me in the future; but I think this is a pretty solid starting point.


GOOD LUCK FOR THE NEW SEASON, EVERYONE!!!



[And by the way... I've said this already on the blog, and no doubt I'll say it again - often - but I do not claim to be any sort of FPL 'expert' myself. I am a smart guy with a lot of football knowledge and a lot of experience of FPL; so, I think my observations and insights are probably worth something. But I do not pretend that they are at all 'authoritative' - or necessarily and invariably 'correct'. They are just ideas that I hope people may find it interesting to ponder... even if they then decide that they don't agree with them.

And, while I might sometimes give examples of players I think are worth considering - or avoiding - I won't ever share my whole team, and I'll generally avoid making any specific player recommendations.

My aim with all my commentary on Fantasy Premier League - whether here on the blog, or on various forums where I sometimes contribute - is to try to show people not who to pick, but how to make picks.]



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