Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.
Yep, in Gameweek 10, I find myself going for another goalkeeper (after nominating Nick Pope as a weird pick in this series a couple of weeks back). And many of the arguments against Pope are the same as those against Raya, or indeed against any keeper from a top club; and I already went through them in that earlier post.
Raya was already by far the most popular goalkeeper pick this year (well, apart from Martin Dubravka - who, as the only 4-million-pound starter in the position, is almost everyone's favourite back-up option); but he's continuing to gain new owners - with another 150,000 coming on board for him this week. And that really makes no sense.
1) Raya might be 'the best goalkeeper in the league' - but that doesn't necessarily mean anything for FPL. Great players don't always earn huge FPL points. (I think Pickford and Alisson still have a little bit of an edge over him in their consistency and all-around impact. But he's certainly 'in the conversation' as one of the best few, an absolutely outstanding keeper - who might help Arsenal to the title this year. But thoughts like that can lead to sentimentality and clouded thinking: it doesn't matter how 'good' he is, or how well his team is doing, unless that translates directly into Fantasy points - and with goalkeepers, it very rarely does.)
2) Raya is not going to be the year's leading FPL goalkeeper. I am usually very wary of making hard-and-fast predictions; but I feel fairly confident in making that one. Despite an exceptionally strong run of results so far, and even a good number of saves in the early games (and that's another issue: we have almost certainly seen 'peak Raya' already, and his average returns-per-game will decline from here on), he's trailing Robin Roefs, tied with Nick Pope, not far ahead of Petrovic and Vicario, and being rapidly caught up in recent weeks by Donnarumma, Lammens, and Emi Martinez. Over the season, you'd probably fancy Pickford and Henderson to overhaul him as well, and possibly a few others too - the likes of Kelleher, Sanchez, Sels, and Leno.
3) Goalkeepers tend not to give you much of a 'differential advantage' over their position rivals. Even if Raya does end up as the top-returning FPL keeper this season, it probably won't be by very much of a margin over his closest competitors. You'll almost certainly get more of a points advantage by taking a second (and maybe, some people currently feel, even a third...!) Arsenal defender rather than the goalkeeper.
4) It is 'saves' points, and the Bonus Points that come with them (keepers rarely get in Bonus Point contention for a clean sheet alone), that differentiate goalkeeper performance - rather than the number of clean sheets. Despite an unusually strong start to the season in this respect, with 7 saves credited to him in the opening game at Old Trafford, Raya has only managed 9 more saves in the 8 games since, and has crashed out of the Top 12 for the number of saves; Roefs, Dubravka and Sels have recorded twice as many. His Bonus Points total is likewise a very modest 3 points so far; almost all the top keepers have now managed 2 or 3 Bonus Points - but Robin Roefs is way out in front with 6 points. Arsenal are so good defensively at the moment that David Raya doesn't look likely to earn points for anything except clean sheets - and that is not enough to make him a top FPL keeper pick.
5) If Arsenal rack up a huge clean sheet total, that will be more of an advantage to their defenders. The remarkable record of 24 clean sheets set in Mourinho's first season at Chelsea has stood for 20 years now, and will probably stand for a lot longer. In recent years, it has been rare for many teams even to approach achieving 1 clean sheet in every 2 games across the season: 12-15 clean sheets is usually a very good total for the top defensive sides. However, Arsenal are currently at least looking favourites to be well out in front for keeping the most clean sheets this year, and they might have a chance of getting above 20 for the season. If they manage that, all of their defenders might have as many as 5 or 6 more clean sheets than any other defender. (Of course, Raya will also have that advantage over every other keeper, and that's presumably what all his FPL owners are getting so excited about. But for him, it is of less significance, because he is likely to do so poorly from saves and Bonus Points.) All of their defenders are likely to pick up more Bonus Points than Raya (because they rack up consistent BPS credit from being on the ball so much during build-up play), they will sometimes get an extra lift from the new 'defensive points' (in games like the Manchester United one, where they find themselves under the cosh for long periods; it probably won't happen to them all that often, but, when it does, it will still give their defenders more extra points than Raya is likely to be earning from saves), and all of the Arsenal defenders currently look quite likely to chip in a good number of attacking contributions too - because one or both of the full-backs frequenly push forward to support the attacking line, and the centre-backs are the main target men at their highly productive set-piece routines. Any Arsenal defender who starts regularly looks likely at the moment to significantly outscore almost any other defender at any other club; Raya does not look likely to outscore all the other goalkeepers.
6) With a top side, you must weigh the 'opportunity cost' of going without one of their outfield players. This is the ultimate reason why it is almost never a good idea to take a keeper from one of the title-chasing clubs. In addition to the superior claims of any/all of Arsenal's defenders over Raya, you also have to consider whether you might want Bukayo Saka at some point in the season (almost certainly!). or Declan Rice, who is looking like he might be the most consistent provider in the 'cheap 5th seat' midfield slot. And they have a number of other players who might be worth considering if they hit a patch of hot form: Trossard, Martinelli, Eze, Havertz, Gyokeres. You might indeed want to keep one of your 'Arsenal slots' open for such an eventuality, limit yourself to taking just 2 of their players most of the time, so that you can always easily bring in a third pick whenever you choose to. That flexibility, in itself, could be worth going without Raya.
7) There's also a price/value-for-money issue with Raya, or any top-price keeper. There's not only an 'opportunity cost' measured against other players you might pick instead within the Arsenal club quota, there's one with other players you might pick within the overall budget allocation. You almost always (no - always) get a bigger points-lift per 100k spent from the outfield positions, especially goalscoring midfielders. Therefore, it never makes sense to go for one of the premium-priced goalkeepers when any of the alternatives half a million or a million cheaper have a decent chance of at least getting somewhere near their points total.
I really do not have anything against David Raya. I think he's an absolutely superb keeper (he was a mainstay of my squad when he started out with Brentford a few years ago). And he is assuredly odds-on to win the Golden Glove this year. But for FPL, he really is quite a terrible choice of goalkeeper.
It might not be readily apparent just how bad a pick he is; particularly if he manages to stay up near the top of the goalkeeper points rankings. But however well he may do, it is absolutely certain that other Arsenal defenders - and perhaps also Saka or another of their attacking players, when in peak form - would have done even better for you if you'd chosen them instead.
