Treble-up Arsenal defence??

 

Well, a lot of people are talking about that idea now.

And we do seem to be facing a unique situation where - at least for now - Arsenal are really looking like they might keep a clean sheet almost every week (and could perhaps shatter Chelsea's long-standing record for the most in a season?!), while all the other leading contenders have been showing worrying defensive vulnerabilities.

And not only are Arsenal's defenders looking likely to do far better from clean sheets than any other team, they're also looking amongst the strongest prospects for attacking contributions too (particularly Gabriel, who is currently wreaking havoc as the main target man in the opposition box at corners and free-kicks). They might not often do so well on the new 'defensive points', as they're usually dominating possession too well to need to win the ball back and break up opposition attacks very often (though, again, Gabriel in particular has often posted some very good numbers for 'defensive contributions').

So, if Arsenal's defenders really do look likely to produce much better FPL points than any other defenders (at the moment), why not have THREE of them?

Well, there are a number of reasons:

1)  Failure to spread risk.  It's generally a bad idea to take too many players from one team, and especially in the same position on the field. While Arsenal, at the moment, are generally the most likely team to preserve a clean sheet, they are never going to be the only team that does so in any gameweek. And certain defenders in other teams might occasionally offer better points returns in other categories. While having 2 or 3 Arsenal defenders will serve you very well whenever they do keep a clean sheet, it might not always be the optimal FPL lineup even when that happens; and when they don't, you could be very hard hit. Remember a couple of years ago - Virgil Van Dijk got himself sent off for 'a denial of a goalscoring opportunity' foul in the opening minutes, and Liverpool ended up losing a game they had been expected to win comfortably. Shit happens. If shit like that happens to Arsenal, being trebled-up on their defence would be very bad news. And an unexpected postponement, due to bad weather or whatever (as happened last year with the first Merseyside derby at Anfield), could also be devastating. The one thing you can generally rely on with FPL is that if you leave yourself exposed to the cruelties of Fate, Fate will be cruel to you!

2)  It's dangerous to bet on clean sheets. They can evaporate so easily. And no-one - not even the best defence in the league (and I'm not going to argue that Arsenal aren't that) - keeps a clean sheet every week. In fact, even the best defences don't usually manage a clean sheet more than once every two games across the season. Arsenal have just enjoyed a somewhat freakish run of success - helped by a very easy run of fixtures - and it is very likely that their defensive returns will falter slightly before long.

3)  Lack of rotation options.  Arsenal might face a Blank Gameweek at some point. And there will be some fixtures in which you don't want to play all - or any - of their defensive players in your starting lineup. Away to City or Liverpool, or any other good team that's hit a run of hot goalscoring form,... you don't want to be betting on clean sheets. You can very easily find yourself short of defenders if you rely so heavily on one team.

4)  Lack of flexibility.  As I said in my post last week about David Raya being a bad pick, you really want as often as possible to leave yourself the option of bringing in a third player from any high-performing side at an opportune moment; limiting yourself to only 2 players per club most of the time makes it easy for you to bring in a third whenever someone starts hitting a really hot streak of form.

5)  Ignoring the attacking options.  Especially with a title-chasing side, it is very likely that some of their forwards or midfielders will also have a strong claim to inclusion in your squad - at least for certain phases of the season. Is a third Arsenal defender often - regularly, always - going to give you a better points-lift over another defender than, for example, Saka or Trossard or Eze might over another midfielder?

So,.... there is a very strong case at the moment for taking 2 Arsenal defenders: though even that is a bold, risky strategy that is only justified in rare circumstances. But going for 3 is unnecessary,... completely bloody crazy.

And, although goalkeepers should not be 'confused' with defenders (a sadly common vice in FPL-land), since the scoring system for them is notably different, and the competitive landscape of comparison with rival picks is very different too,... well, here it is legitimate to include David Raya in the equation as well. It is undesirable to take more than 2 players from the Arsenal defence (whether that is Raya + another defender, or Gabriel + another defender). In fact, as I argued in that earlier post, it is undesirable to take Raya at all, as he won't get nearly so much benefit as his defenders from a large number of clean sheets, and probably won't outscore the other top keepers by much, if anything.

But yes, just at the moment, it is looking.... not quite 'essential', but very, very appealing to have 2 Arsenal defenders.