Going with the flow

Here's a funny thing: although I have a great fondness for the late Shane MacGowan and his songwriting,.... most of my favourite Pogues songs are in fact written by other members of the band. This one, a rather beautiful love song by banjo-player Jem Finer, is actually from their later era in the '90s, after the band had finally been worn out by Shane's looney escapades and had to sack him.

The Pogues have a special place in my heart because they rose to prominence - indeed they were, somehow, one of the biggest bands in the world for a while back then! - during the 1980s, the period when I was transitioning from high school to university, and then from university to 'the world of work' (ha!), that age when we tend to listen to music most, and be most affected by it.

Although this song was released on their penultimate album, Waiting For Herb, in the mid-90s, I always associate it with a rather earlier moment in my life (funny how the mind works!). Back at the end of the '80s, I was doing a teacher-training course in the north of England, and was attempting a long-distance relationship for the first time, with a devastatingly beautiful young woman I'd just met who was at art college in London. (I always seem to fall for creative types: actresses, dancers, writers, musicians...) And although she never stood me up at a bus station, as in the scenario of the song, there were a number of  times when hoped-for visits were cancelled, or when we had awkward conversations from a payphone at a bus station (one of the most readily available to me at the time, since I was living in a small village some way outside of my university town, and having to take a bus home almost every evening). Because of these associations, several years later, this became for me, retroactively, 'our song'.

The song is notable musically for being an instance of the use of 'Infinite Guitar' - a feedback effect that allows a note to be sustained indefinitely at constant volume, here producing a melancholy and haunting background. The device was apparently invented by a Canadian guitarist called Michael Brook in the 1980s, but it is most associated with his countryman, Daniel Lanois, who did a lot to develop, or at least 'popularise' the innovation. Also a talented musician and songwriter, Lanois became best-known as a producer, particularly for his work on a number of U2's most successful albums. He introduced the 'infinite guitar' gizmo to The Edge, who was quite besotted with it for a while, and used it most memorably on the hit single With Or Without You - which probably creates some additional resonance with this song. (I'd never been much of a fan of U2 or The Edge, but I got to meet him and hear him perform at a private music biz party in the '90s, and found myself very impressed: he is a rather cool dude, and a much better player than I'd realised.)

I particularly like the opening lines, repeated as chorus:

Listen to me, baby: Once upon a time....

My heart, it was an ocean,

But you swam against the tide.

It's a song about acceptance, about moving on - without enmity or regret. How many of those are there?? It might be unique.

It's a good lesson, for life - and for FPL. Sometimes - often, most of the time - things don't work out the way we want them to. We have to try to understand how these setbacks happen, without apportioning blame - to ourselves or others. And we have to learn to bear these disappointments with good grace - and summon the will to keep moving forward.

And yet, of course, I can't escape the conviction on occasions that the girl was wrong, that life is often wrong; that the tide of my feelings was 'right', and that the girl - and the world - would have done better to have gone along with my flow, rather than opposing it.

Yes, EVERYTHING can become a metaphor for me.  Life is a metaphor for FPL, FPL is a metaphor for life.... Life is FPL....

Forgive these idle musings. I am making rapid progress into a bottle of Tullamore Dew this slow Tuesday evening....

One of the biggest BLIND SPOTS for statisticians

 

I've been a fan of The Purist Football on Youtube for quite a while. He used to produce rather dense video essays, which would only drop very irregularly, perhaps only two or three times a year; but this season he has moved into more frequent positing: still a bit irregular, but usually something - something worthwhile - every few weeks or so.

His latest piece called attention to another of the shortcomings of statistical analysis. This is a topic I've been meaning to do a substantial post of my own on for some time, but I confess I am a bit daunted by the scope of the challenge: there are so many things to be said, few of them good. 

And I confess I hadn't really taken note before of the point The Purist makes here: Most football statistics focus only on 'active contributions', on touches of the ball; they completely overlook the substantial elements of the game which are merely 'passive contributions', off-the-ball work.

Blocking, marking, recovering defensive shape, making decoy runs - these are all vital parts of the game... which stats compilers fail to capture.

This video highlights the particularly pertinent example of Barcelona's Dani Olmo, who is an absolute maestro of the dummy. - an attribute that no conventional statistic even records, let alone attempts to evaulate the potential game impact of. (Often, a great dummy ought to count as an 'assist' - but, of course, it doesn't, because the dummying player avoids making contact with the ball.)

My general attitude to using statistics for FPL purposes is that it should only be done in moderation, and only if you always manage to remain duly mindful of what the statistics are not showing you.

Very few FPL managers, alas, are capable of this. For the majority, it would probably be better to steer clear of statistics altogether.

A nomad once more....

I've just endured a rather unpleasantly fraught few weeks (in the real world, rather than the relatively benign realm of FPL), after my batty landlady decided she wasn't going to extend my lease after all (though, of course, one generally assumes that this should be a mere formality; and we did appear to have reached an agreement in principle to go ahead on much the same terms as the past year, back in the middle of January), but dawdled about telling me, and - really - didn't give me any proper notice at all.

Suddenly faced with unexpected homelessness in a little over two weeks, I have had to scramble rather to.... sort out the next phase of my life.

And, since I didn't feel I had enough time to both househunt and pack,... I took this unpleasant surprise as a cue to revamp my life rather dramatically. Instead of packing up my life into boxes and finding another house to rent, I have.... sold (or given away) everything I own, and laid plans to hit the road. As of tomorrow, I shall be a vagabond again.

If I have one greater love in my life than football, it is music. My parents had quite an extensive and diverse collection of records (though mostly rather middle-of-the-road), and a wonderful old 'gramophone' in a walnut chest with which to play them. During my early childhood, I would sit cross-legged on the floor in front of this marvellous device, in utter rapture, for hours at a time. And one of my great favourites from those early listening sessions was this mid-60s hit by the country singer Roger Miller: King of the Road, a defiant celebration of the hobo life - humorous, and oddly inspiring. I often wonder if my love for this song hasn't led me astray in life. Not only am I unafraid of having no fixed abode, no steady income, and few personal possessions; I actually tend to view such a situation as a desirable ideal.

Famous name, obscure origin

Although I have been a lifelong admirer of Pelé, I confess I don't think I had ever known where the celebrated monicker came from. Now we have an answer, in this little biographical summary from the almost always diverting Tifo (a sub-channel of The Athletic magazine's Youtube presence, but far more entertaining and worthwhile than the great majority of their regular content).

For me, those 'greatest of all time' debates never get off the ground. If you were lucky enough to see Pelé in his prime (or even past his prime: I recall some absolutely stunning moments from his time with the New York Cosmos team in the mid-70s), there is no debate: he did everything that the later greats did, but did it more consistently, with more zest, with more athleticism. Everyone since has been inspired by Pelé, everyone has tried to emulate him; a few have come very close, but no-one has surpassed him.

What he did in the 1970 World Cup - and I was a tiny boy at the time, watching on a grainy old black-and-white TV - was other-worldly. I can't think of any other player who has become so celebrated, so beloved for a goal he didn't score - let alone three of them: that magnificent downward header that was somehow spooned around the foot of the post in a 'Save of the Century' from Gordon Banks, the outrageous dummy around the Uruguayan keeper on the edge of the box, and the attempt to lob the Czech keeper from a few yards inside his own half (perfect length on the shot, but it drifted just inches wide of the post). And these were just the stupendous highlights. In every match, just about every time he got on the ball, you held your breath, expecting something magical, something impossible to happen - and very often it did. Watching these performances, I began to understand why he called football the beautiful game; it stopped being merely a sport and transformed into an art.

Is it SLOP??

 

I came upon this video the other day, and found it quite interesting. It reminded me of a post I wrote on here nearly a year ago in response to this video on The Athletic's Tifo sub-channel, discussing why football is such an exceptionally complex game (almost uniquely so), and why this imposes severe limits on the extent to which data analysis can be helpful in 'understanding' it. This new video is a far more superficial discussion of the topic than the earlier Tifo one, focusing mainly on why football ('soccer') is so much more 'unpredictable' than the major American team sports. Unsurprisingly, it's because it's a low-scoring game (so, a single error leading to a goal can more often have a decisive impact on the final result), and because a draw being included among the possible game outcomes heavily impacts both the game's tactics and the predictability of results. The one major piece of data analysis in the video suggests that from 2005-2025 barely half of Premier League games were actually won by the 'favourite' (although that begs the question of how the 'favourite' is assessed; many fixtures are so tight that there is no clear favourite - certainly not when other factors like recent form and home advantage are taken into consideration along with league standing and/or general 'status' of the two clubs; it also omits to consider how many of the 'upset' results were only draws rather than losses, which obstructs direct comparability with the American team sports).

While I quite liked this video, I do feel rather hesitant about sharing it. Youtube is awash with AI SLOP these days, and I'm not completely confident that this isn't another example. It does seem to be free of any of the usual tell-tales - the heavy-handed rhetorical antitheses, the frequent repetition of content, or occasional obvious glitches in the voiceover (AI-generated narration tends to have the odd clunking mispronunciation or bizarre bit of phrasing or intonation now and then, or sometimes just an obvious break in the continuity mid-line - which completely gives it away). And the content appears to be all accurate and true (I haven't checked that central statistical claim, though....). But it is a bit glib and shallow. And they are churning out an awful lot of content in a very short time: over two dozen videos in barely two months since the channel launched. Alas, I think I smell a rat. But I'll probably check out a few more of their videos to try to find some persuasive evidence for my hunch on this.

Are we starting to 'enjoy' VAR?!

I just came across this very funny little skit from the English comedy writer/performer, Michael Spicer, which effectively skewers so many of the exasperating failings with the 'Video Assistant Review' process which now mars our enjoyment of the beautiful game in the EPL every single week. [I have written about the failings of this system often on this blog - most notably here, where I try to suggest some 'fixes' for them.]

Spicer is best known for an occasional series on his Youtube channel called 'The Room Next Door' - in which he depicts the travails of a backstage 'political advisor' trying to coach some bumbling public figure (remotely, via an earpiece) through a major speech. He recently did an extended one on The Dumpster's senile ramblings at Davos, which is particularly devastating. (The phrase "a laundry-bag of fascist farts" will stay with you...)

Where do we go from here...?

Yes, I've been having a fair old tactics binge on Youtube over the past few weeks. After last week's pair of recommendations of videos on recent tactical evolutions in the game, I find myself doing a rapid follow-up with a couple more.

Following up closely on the topic of the first of last week's videos, this one from Football Made Simple looks particularly at how the rapid collapse over the past season or so of the 'positional play' approach developed by Pep Guardiola (due to the mass adoption of man-marking rather than zonal systems) has led to both Pep and Mikel Arteta having to radically modify their approaches to the game. This has involved developing far more versatility in the players (so that they can feel comfortable and be effective in just about any area of the pitch) and far more fluidity of rotation (so that they're tiring and discombobulating their markers by dragging them all over the pitch, shifting them miles away from where they're used to being). Despite some success for this new approach, the increasing impenetrability of the dense low-blocks employed against them for long periods by almost all their opponents is still starving them of scoring chances. One answer to that issue has been to look for players with more mercurial improvisatory talents, players with the close control and the imagination to carve an opening where none seems possible (such as Cherki and Doku now at City). An alternate approach - apparently more favoured by Snr Arteta, who has been presciently basing his squad-building around it for some years already now - is to assemble a corps of brick shithouses who can, when called upon, use their superior physicality to just power their way past, or through, defending players. Not that these options are at all mutually exclusive: Arsenal, after all, have acquired Eze to potentially amp up the guile supplied by Odegaard and Saka, while Haaland and Gvardiol and Semenyo are built like tanks quite as much as Gabriel and Timber and Rice and Havertz and Gyokeres. However, it still seems doubtful if either of these astute coaches has yet found anything like a complete answer to the new set of challenges being posed.

By coincidence, the same day I first saw that video I also happened upon a new post from The Different Knock reviewing Arsenal's tactics this season. (I have, in fact, been avoiding Alex Moneypenny's channel for the past few months, because he's such a diehard Arsenal fan, I had feared he might be getting a bit triumphalistic about their title-leading performance this season. To be fair, though, he does try to be very moderate and even-handed in his assessments, and resists getting too carried away....) It seems he's actually feeling a bit glum and anxious at the moment, recognising that Arsenal have once again been suffering one of their notorious 'midwinter wobbles', and that there is some foundation to the common criticisms currently being made of them: their predictability in attack (always down the right...), their excessive risk-aversion, their over-dependence on set-piece routines, and their woeful lack of threat from open play. [I've been saying all season - and was still sticking to the view, despite the first dawning of some doubts, when I did my second set of final position predictions around the beginning of December - that I just didn't feel they were quite good enough all-round to deserve the title this year, and could only win it by default, if all of the main challengers turned out to have poor seasons (which has been the case so far).]

And then, of course, my favourite video analyst, Adam Clery, just added a video about Arsenal's problems - a useful practical footnote to the above more abstract dissertations.

More TACTICS!

 

The informative tactical analyst and football historian DK Falcon doesn't seem to have been posting that much on Youtube lately (not that I've noticed, anyway....), but this interesting piece popped up last weekend. 

In it he outlines the recent major evolutions in top-level football tactics, explaining how the aggressive high press (the 'Gegenpress' developed in Germany in the early 2010s, and brought to England by Jurgen Klopp) was in part a dialectic response to the refined style of controlled possession inspired by Barcelona's 'tiki-taka'; and then in turn the 'press-baiting' approach (being prepared to play the ball around across the back indefinitely, ostentatiously putting your foot on the ball to defy the opposition to try to take it off you, and keeping your back line ultra-deep, sometimes even playing to and fro practically on the goal-line itself - to try to draw the first line of pressure high into the penalty area and expose an inviting gap behind it) and new ways of playing through the high press pioneered by Roberto de Zerbi were a response to this; and now the rapid growth of 'hybrid pressing' (combining elements of zonal marking and man-marking to produce greater flexibility, and enabling rapid transition from high press to mid-block modes) is a reponse to that.

And what's next after that?? Well, maybe something radically different - not just another counter-measure to the prevailing norms, but a new tactical idea that truly breaks the mould. By coincidence, Conor McAinsh's Football Meta published this video at about the same time, breaking down the innovative style of José Alberto's Racing Santander - currently top of the heap in La Segunda in Spain.

Alberto's approach is a kind of extreme 'relationism', largely shunning conventional structures and demanding a great deal of flexibility from his players to constantly rotate positions with each other and improvise their way out of difficulties. The essence of it is to mob the opponent on the ball, closing off all his passing options as quickly as possible; this typically involves concentrating most of the outfield players in a fairly small area, and often putting the entire team in the same half of the pitch. The advantage of this is that it does put the opponent under enormous pressure, with a huge numerical advantage around the ball; and if a turnover is achieved, the wide open spaces left elsewhere on the pitch can be exploited for a swift counter-attack. However, it is necessarily a tactic of high reward/high risk: if the opponent manages to elude this press, he usually has one or more unmarked players in acres of space, especially on the opposite flank, and is even better placed to launch a devastating fast attack. [Fernando Diniz enjoyed some success for a while with a similar system at Fluminense in Brazil a few years ago. The Purist Football did a good video on this back then.]

Feeling overwhelmed...?

 

For no particularly good reason (only the TV companies' remorseless appetite for airtime-filler...), the opening match of the Gameweek 21 schedule, West Ham v Nottingham Forest, is kicking off tonight - Tuesday evening, 8pm, UK time.

These midweek gameweeks are a huge hassle for everyone in FPL, because almost everybody has less time to attend to these things during the working week: certainly less time during the day to check up on the latest team news, but also probably less opportunity to watch games live - or perhaps even to catch up on highlights (promptly, or at all...).

But it's even worse for folks like me living in Asia - well, anywhere east of the Arabian Gulf or the Caspian Sea, really. For us, evening games are starting at midnight or later, much too late for most of us to even think of watching them live; much too late, in fact, or most of us to even be staying up until the FPL deadline to try to catch late-breaking team news before finalizing our squads.

And when the games are staggered across multiple days, that hassle is greatly increased; especially when having an 'early' game or two, a day ahead of the majority of the gameweek fixtures, compresses the gap with the preceding gameweek such that we'll have no real opportunity to learn about new injury problems,... or, really, to ponder our FPL squads at all! It is a right pain-in-the-arse, frankly. 

At least, if the Gameweek started on Wednesday, we'd have a full two-day breather after GW20, and some chance for press conference updates to filter through to us on the far side of the world. Thanks to this bloody West Ham game, we're essentially flying blind into this one...

All of which is to say.... no, I don't really have time to do my usual detailed preview for Gameweek 21; sorry.

The main NEW INJURY PROBLEMS I'm aware of are:

Wesley Fofana (illness) and Robert Sanchez (muscle strain) missed the last game for Chelsea.

Jefferson Lerma (concussion) Nathaniel Clyne (groin strain) both had to come off with knocks in the weekend game against Newcastle at the weekend. That leaves Palace stretched very thin in defence.

Leeds right-back Jayden Bogle missed the weekend's game against Manchester United with a calf problem.

Hugo Ekitike was missing at the weekend with a slight hamstring strain.

The big news of the gameweek though, is that Josko Gvardiol had to come off early in the second-half against Chelsea with a leg injury, and has since needed surgery on a cracked tibia - so, he's likely to be out for several weeks at least (a major blow to the 10% or so of Fantasy managers who own him). Even worse for Pep, Ruben Dias also had to come off shortly before the end of the game with a leg-muscle problem. I wonder if they might have to recall Manuel Akanji from his loan to Inter.

Jacob Murphy had to come off before the end against Palace, complaining of a tight hamstring.

Callum Hudson-Odoi missed the Villa game with a sore Achilles tendon, and goalkeeper John Victor had to come off in the second-half with a pulled muscle behind his knee.

Sunderland striker Wilson Isidor was also missing at the weekend, apparently because of a training-ground knock.

Mo Kudus had to come off against Sunderland with a thigh strain.

Lucas Paqueta missed the Wolves game with a back problem.

Joao Gomes and Hwang Hee-Chan both had to come off in the West Ham game with muscle soreness, Gomes suffering in the groin and Hwang in the calf.

At least there ae no new suspensions to worry about for this game. And Xavi Simons, Moises Caicedo and Ethan Ampadu are available again after serving their bans.

Oh, and Ruben Amorim's been sacked at last (about 8 months too late, but better late than never...). Youth team coach Darren Fletcher is expected to take over as an interim manager, but I wonder if the ownership made the move now because they think they can land the suddenly available Maresca. A change like this is always disruptive, but Amorim has been such an embarrassment of flailing disaster (and a source of constant uncertainty for his players as he messes with the line-up every single week!) that I would expect the 'new manager bounce' at United could be huge - even if only short-lived.

The video clip at the top is of course from the seminal campus comedy National Lampoon's 'Animal House': the classic little scene where the boys go shopping at a local supermarket to get food for an upcoming toga party at their fraternity house, and geeky freshman Kent Dorfman (Fraternity name: 'Flounder'), played by the late Stephen Furst, for a while manifests unexpected dexterity in catching the avalanche of food items tossed his way by his mischievous frat brothers. It is, I think, one of the great bits of improvised physical comedy in cinema. (I saw this film during my first week at university; and I like to say that I have never looked forward since...)

Another holiday treat from ACFC

 

The always marvellous Adam Clery Football Channel has dropped another 'holiday special' video, this time on the remarkable Leicester City Premier League title win ten years ago. Is it really that long ago now? Seems like only yesterday....

This was a triumph so improbable that lifelong fan of the club, Gary Lineker, promised half-way through the season that he'd present the year's final 'Match of the Day' programme on the BBC in his underwear if his team achieved it.

A lot of people didn't think he'd go through with it - but he's a game lad. We're missing him this year, now that he's finally retired from the show.

Another little bit of Christmas fun

For anyone growing up in the UK in the '70s or early '80s, veteran comedy double-act Morecambe & Wise's 'Christmas Special' TV show on the BBC became more of a central institution of the family Christmas than the Queen's annual 'Message to the Commonwealth', a highlight of the year anticipated for weeks beforehand.

The secret of the duo's showbiz longevity was the remarkable chemistry they shared, along with Eric Morecambe's peerless deadpan delivery; but the Christmas shows were also often memorable for some fantastic bits of visual inventiveness - like this.....

Merry Christmas, again!

A Christmas treat from ACFC

The excellent Adam Clery Football Channel (the best analysis show on Youtube; only founded at the tail-end of last season, but immediately indispensable) yesterday posted a 'Christmas Special' - a great little breakdown on The Greatest Moment Ever In English Sport, our majestic defeat of West Germany in the 1966 World Cup Final at Wembley. [And he's promised another 'historical' anaysis for the holidays soon, an examination of Leicester's extraordinary title-winning season.]

If you feel like watching the full match (it is a hell of a game), here it is:

I could have sworn I'd once been able to watch a colour version of the full match (shot on film for FIFA, where I assume this must be videotape of the BBC black-and-white TV coverage), but it doesn't seem to be available on Youtube at the moment; there are highlights only in colour. 

The Wembley crowd's singing of the National Anthem after the presentation of the trophy is the only time I have ever heard it sounding happy.

Here it is.....!

 

For an Englishman like me, there is only one 'Best Christmas Song of All Time'; and it's certainly not the cringe-inducing Wham! or the saccharine Mariah Carey offerings that get so exasperatingly overplayed at this time of year. No, of course, it's 'Merry Xmas, Everybody!' by Slade - an actual celebration of the occasion, rather than just a routine love song cynically grafted into a seasonal setting, and just the right combination of simplistic structure but great melody and raucous rock energy to propel it into the stratosphere of ageless anthemic songs.  What would Christmas be without it?

Merry Christmas, Everybody!!!

A little bit of Zen (69)

"You should be self-confident enough to abandon your 'certainty' - and to explore and to allow contradictions."

Christoph Waltz

A couple of weeks ago, the great Austrian actor was the featured guest in Mythical Kitchen's 'Last Meal' series, chatting thoughtfully with erudite host, Josh Scherer, about a range of topics, while enjoying some of his favourite dishes and wines. It's a curious coincidence that I should stumble on this pithy warning against the vice of excessive 'certainty' so soon after coming across Derek Muller's video on the same topic, 

This is one of the best things I've seen on Youtube all year: Waltz is a wise and funny man, full of intriguing insights. He's nearly 70 now, but still exudes a boyish enthusiasm about everything, am effervescent joie de vivre. The line above comes at timestamp 29.17. There is a bit earlier in the conversattion, around about 13.35, where he touches on another idea that I often like to highlight on this blog - the importance of prioritizing process over result.

I highly recommend watching the whole thing. Waltz is a treasure; Scherer too.

The vice of OVER-CONFIDENCE

 

I've referrred to Derek Muller's consistently thought-provoking science channel, Verittasium, on the blog before - here and here.

His latest post last week was on the unfortunate human predilection towards being massively - and inappropriately - confident about our beliefs all the time. 

He starts by touching on the notorious Dunning-Kruger Effect (which identifies the tendency for less 'knowledgeable' or 'competent' people to most drastically over-estimate their abilities in self-evaluations), but goes on to discuss how EVERYONE tends to be massively over-confident - even when making a guess about a problem that we really don't know the answer to - and explains the concept of 'calibration', meaning the correlation between the confidence we have in our beliefs or predictions and their accuracy.

Playing FPL, of course, is a classic case of having to constantly make intelligent predictions of events in the football world that we can't actually know the outcomes of in advance; we are just making guesses about problems we don't know the answer to.

And such events in football all come with a high degree of uncertainty: even the great Erling Haaland, even when he's on such a great run of form as he has been so far this season, cannot be relied upon to always get a big haul against a 'weaker' opponent, nor indeed can he be relied upon to score at all in every single game.

'Calibration', in this sense, means that our confidence in a particular outcome should correlate exactly to its probability. 

Therefore, if our guessing was 'well calibrated', we wouldn't ever feel much more than 60% or 70% confident that Haaland, even in the form of his life, was going to score in any given game, and should never really be more than about 50% confident - or anywhere near that! - of him notching a brace; and confidence in him returning a hattrick cannot ever be more than a very, very low percentage - it is just too rare and unpredictable an event, even for a player like him (especially when Pep so often subs him off early!). 

And yet, somehow, we always seem to end up professing near-100% confidence in such predictions. That is a dangerous INSANITY.

It probably arises from our desire to feel good about ourselves all the time, and to look good in front of others. Anxiety about future outcomes, and doubt about the accuracy of our decisions are uncomfortable feelings, something we seek to suppress. And we imagine that other people will be more impressed by us, and be more likely to be swayed by our opinions if we express them with absolute assurance. Hence, once we've made a decision, we immediately reassure ourselves that it must - absolutely definitely - be correct, and that we can place near-100% confidence in it. But that just ain't so - EVER.

There are, I think, FOUR supplementary vices which follow on from this tendency to be over-confident in our choices.  1) It hurts harder, makes our disappointment and dissatisfaction all the sharper when we happen to be 'wrong'.  2) It makes us more stubborn: the disproof of an idea we had become so confident of, and so emotionally invested in, undermines our sense of self, and we struggle to accept that; the powerful impulse of denial drives us into thoughts such as, "I might have been wrong this week, but I'm bound to be right next time!" and into sticking by bad picks longer than we should.  3) It makes us less self-reflective, more resistant to the possibility of change in the short-term as well. (Many FPL decisions, such as the captaincy choice, playing a chip, the starting lineup and bench order, can be changed without cost within the gameweek, right up until the deadline. And late-breaking news might often give good cause to do so. But once we've made our choices for the week, we tend to be very reluctant to revisit them - for any reason.)  And 4) It makes us less grateful for our good fortune: when we get a great haul from a player, we always like to think, "I predicted that, I knew that was going to happen: I completely deserve every single point of that improbably huge return!"  Hmm, NO, you don't; you got LUCKY.

We would be much better off - certainly happier in our playing of the game, and probably more successful too (though these two things should not be inextricably correlated) - if we could break away from this habit of always wanting to be believe that we are absolutely correct in our decisions, that we know what the best FPL picks for the week are going to be. We don't; we're just guessing.

Some ('non-Zen') WISE WORDS on our Internet culture

 

"If you need every story in your feed to be 'My team wins' and 'Here's why my side is the good one', you're WEAK - and deliberately keeping yourself ignorant."

Bill Maher

Veteran comedian/satirist/social commentator Bill Maher's Friday night political discussion show on HBO, Real Time, is one of my most regular Youtube fixes - particularly his 'New Rule' segment, the more 'serious' monologue with which he regularly concludes the show. 

He's often now decried by elements of 'The Left' in America as a 'sell-out' - because he's willing to engage with right-wing figureheads and talking-points on the show, and to crticise some of the grosser excesses of 'woke-ism' & co. But humour is essentially apolitical: it makes fun of whatever is most ripe to be made fun of. In essence, he is still very obviously the same anarchic hippie pot-lover he's always been. (So, yes, very largely a man after my own heart....)

His most recent 'New Rule' featured the devastating comment above on the 'bubble' mentality that online life now seems to create and perpetuate (and went on to suggest some ways in which we might seek to confound The Almighty Algorithm and break out of our 'bubbles' a little; the link embedded above should take you to the mid-point of his homily, where the key quotation I've copied here occurs; the whole piece is worth a watch).

I feel this is a point which has particular relevance to the realm of Fantasy Premier League. I am  widely reviled on most of the online forums about our Fantasy game that I contribute to - purely because I insist on repeatedly making points that many people find uncomfortable. - relentlessly questioning usually unquestioned 'truths'.  You know, things like: bonus chips do not automatically work better in Double Gameweeks;... a midfielder is usually a better captain/Triple Captain pick than a forward....; and 'effective ownership' has nothing to do with differential points advantage. That kind of thing.

Try to get used to this, people: DISCOMFORT is good for you, DISCOMFORT is an evolutionary stimulus.

You might disagree with me; you might not understand me; I might be wrong - but being willing to engage with ideas that you find challenging helps to grow your brain!

[I know my weekly 'A Little Bit of Zen' bon mots are often not very Buddhist in nature at all (mostly more Stoic or Daoist, or just sad-truth-wrapped-in-a-joke...); but I felt these observations really fell rather outside even the very loose parameters of that series.]

To dream the impossible dream...?

Every four years (well, every two years...), Englishmen have to try very hard not to get their hopes up about our chances in the next big international tournament.

But this time, not only do we have a really exceptional crop of young players to choose from, we also seem to have a manager who may know what he's doing....

Top Youtube football analyst Adam Clery puts forward this bold thesis that, quite apart from tactical insight and astute man management, Thomas Tuchel might be unique among recent England managers in having the cojones to leave out some of our starriest players in order to achieve a better balance in the side.

I find it difficult to disagree too much with any of Adam's ideas - because he's a very shrewd observer of the game, and also an irresistibly likeable, down-to-earth chap. I'm kind of 50/50 on this one, though. I approve of the general point (it's exactly what I said when Tuchel first took over, about having the courage to regard no player as a sacred cow); and I'm very excited about the stability Elliot Anderson suddenly seems to be giving our central midfield. But you have to be a little bit wary of getting over-excited about our smooth progression through a particularly puny qualifying group (even teams that have looked vaguely threatening in recent years - Serbia, Albania - suddenly weren't again!!).

And I am not completely convinced about the current personnel - or the the notion of omitting major talents for this to become our regular starting lineup. I'd probably prefer to build for the next 10 years around Palmer and Bellingham (and Saka and Eze...), rather than go with a bunch of slightly less stellar options who 'fit better with Harry Kane' (for this one tournament!). But it's certainly something to think about.

Takin' it easy.....

These international breaks may seem irritating to some, interrupting what soon become cosy, familar routines in our FPL life. But we should rather be luxuriating in the rare joy of TIME OFF.

Here's one of my favourite-ever celebrations of goofing off, Louis Armstrong and Gary Crosby (a son of the great Bing, with a very similar vocal style) in a 1950s recording of the Johnny Mercer/Hoagy Carmichael song Lazy Bones.

Yes, HISTORY can be fun!

 

The excellent DK Falcon doesn't post all that often (about once a month, at best) and tends to cover broader football topics rather than just recent matches or current shifts in tactics. But I always find his videos a good watch, and this latest one is particularly entertaining: a rundown of the more obscure labels for particular player styles/positions - many of which derive from countries other than England, and/or from more distant football eras, but are nevertheless still occasionally part of the current lexicon.

If you ever have nightmares about the possibility of being stumped at your next pub trivia quiz when challenged to explain the meaning of enganche, trequartista, ramdeuter, carillero, volante - then this is a must-watch for you!

The rise of THE IDIOCRACY

 

I came upon this fascinating audio-essay the other week, from a Youtube channel called Philosophical Effect. (The narration sounds worryingly as though it might be AI-generated - just rather flat and generic in tone, although at least missing the worst of the usual giveaways like clunking pauses, misplaced emphases, and bizarre mispronunciations.  And I think the text is too sophisticated for even the latest LLM's best effort. Also,.... I don't think AI would want to be warning us about this....!) [Unfortunately, this video seems to have been pulled after a few months. I can't see that there were any likely copyright claims against it; but I fear it might have been a bit too confrontational, and its author might have become disheartened at often vitriolic responses to it - I hope not. Then again, maybe it was just an AI experiment....  I am keeping an eye out for it to reappear one day.]

Like most of the world these days, I spend far too much of my time online (though at least I refuse to succumb to the supposed allure of the 'smartphone'). And that is an increasingly depressing environment. In particular, the FPL forums where I loaf about in many of my off hours are often aggressively narrow-minded, positively belligerent and spiteful towards anyone who dares to challenge any of the generally accepted unwisdoms surrounding the game (yes, that would be me: I found Socrates's gadfly metaphor dangerously inspiring in my childhood).

The above examination of why people naturally find critical thinking so difficult and unpleasant reminded me of this video I found some years ago on the excellent science education channel, Veritasium, about the concept of 'cognitive ease' - how we quickly come to feel such comfort in the familiar that we fiercely resent anything that threatens to disturb this comfort, anything that challenges our preconceived notions, our habitual channels of thought.

As presenter Derek Muller observes at the end here (and isn't this the problem with the FPL forums, and with the online world in general?!): "The more often you hear something, the more it feels like it's true."

That is certainly a prevalent phenomenon in the world of the FPL forums. We see on these webpages so many examples of precepts that are passionately and unquestioningly adopted by FPL managers in their masses, treated as items of Holy Writ: that you always get a better return for your Triple Captain chip in a Double Gameweek, that certain super-premium players like Haaland or Salah are inescapable 'must-have' picks, and that it is impossible to have a successful team without the highest-scoring individual players, that you don't need to spend any money on your Bench, that forwards always make the best captaincy choice, and that it's usually better to play a third forward than a fifth midfielder, or that playing your Bench Boost chip in the opening Gameweek is a worthwhile strategy. All of these propositions are, of course, utterly preposterous, if you give them a moment's thought. But people just refuse to do that; and are furiously resentful of anyone who does.

Which leads me, finally, to this, from the channel Philosophy Coded (yes, I do listen to and read a lot of philosophy; it was an area of study of mine in my younger life, and I have maintained an interest in it ever since), The celebrated German writer and pastor, Dietrich Bonhoeffer, martyred at the end of WWII for his resistance to the Nazis, elaborated a devastating thesis on the power and the danger of wilful mass ignorance, noting despondently that: "Against stupidity, we are defenceless."

As this video says: "When someone shares misinformation that supports their worldview, they are participating in a system that rewards intellectual shortcuts over careful analysis. The algorithm feeds them more of the same, creating 'echo chambers' that act like intellectual quicksand."

And:  "In a world that rewards confident ignorance over humble uncertainty, admitting gaps in your knowledge becomes a radical act."

Maybe I should stay away from those forums....  You can't open a closed mind. But hanging out too long among closed minds may tend to close your own as well....