Sheep Picks (15)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are dangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Yes, for my first nomination of the 2025-26 season, I'm going for Newcastle keeper, Nick Pope.

As I usually say with these posts, I have nothing against the player himself. He's a fine goalie, and he's been (mostly) in excellent form this season. Anyone who does pick him as their first-choice keeper for FPL might not be dramatically disappointed.

But you only get to pick one (regularly starting) goalkeeper for FPL, as against multiple players for all the outfield positions; and you don't usually want to change your goalkeeper too often, if at all. So, it's really important to get the right one. And I don't feel that Nick Pope is the right goalkeeper for FPL this year.

And yet he is the most transferred-in goalkeeper since the end of Gameweek 7, with 170,000 new managers piling in for him (already; it's likely to be even more by Saturday's GW8 deadline); and the 12th most transferred-in player of all, which is pretty remarkable, given how little transfer activity goalkeepers typically generate.

The only reason I can see for this is that he happens to be top of the FPL goalkeeper rankings at the moment.  Yes, he's kept 5 clean sheets so far. But... Newcastle have had a fairly kind opening run of fixtures: 4 of those clean sheets were against pretty abject opponents - Villa, Leeds, Wolves, and Forest - who barely mustered a decent effort on target between them.

Pope only ranked 8th= as a shot-stopper in the Premier League last season. He's up to 5th at the moment on that metric - but well behind Henderson, Roefs, Sels, and Johnstone. For saves so far this season - which are typically just about as important to a goalie's total FPL returns as clean sheets - he's only 5th=, again behind Sels and Roefs, but also Dubravka and Vicario; and no better than Petrovic, Leno, and Kelleher (all of them cheaper). He's only earned 4 'saves points' so far this season - 4 times in 7 starts: good, but far from outstanding (and in 2 of those games he barely squeaked over the line, being officially credited with exactly 3 saves in each, just enough to qualify for the points).

Paradoxical as it may seem, if Newcastle do turn out to have one of the tightest defences this year (and I think they might), that's not necessarily good for their goalie's FPL prospects. An ideal FPL keeper hits that sweet spot between his defence being good enough to help him avoid conceding too many goals too often, and come through with a decent - though it doesn't have to be world-beating - number of clean sheets,... while also being in a team that is weak enough or inconsistent enough to struggle against a lot of opponents, and hence give him lots of opportunities to make saves.

But at the moment, we really don't know what we're going to get from Newcastle this year. Despite some decent results, their form has looked erratic, unreliable so far. They are once again struggling to adapt to the additional demands of midweek Champions League football. And they seem to be perpetually hobbled with injuries in their defence; currently, full-backs Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall are set to be out for a medium-term absence.

They don't even have a great run of fixtures coming up next. Under Eddie Howe, they have become notorious for being much less formidable on the road; and 4 of their next 6 matches are away from home (3 of them against sides who, though defensively flakey, are capable of producing danger in attack; and the last one against Everton, a side who lack a bit of incisiveness up-front, but are looking defensively very strong this year). And 2 of their next 3 home games are against City and Spurs! Who really is betting on Newcastle to keep many - or any??? - clean sheets in that run?! (Yes, maybe he'll do really well for saves over that run of games. But that's a dangerous thing to gamble on. And really, even over a fairly short sequence of games, you need an FPL goalkeeper to be picking up some points for both saves and clean sheets.)

On no criterion - performance stats, team form, team consistency/reliability, selection stability of the teammates in front of him, fixtures - does Nick Pope look like the best goalkeeper prospect for FPL over the next couple of months,.... not anywhere near.

So, we must assume that The Sheep are - as so often - simply being dazzled by the high points total he happens to be enjoying at the moment. (Without having given any thought to how he acquired that points total, or how likely he is to continue scoring at that sort of rate in the upcoming games...)

And a final observation on selecting goalkeepers: in addition to finding that sweet spot of being in a team that keeps a fair number of clean sheets (so, not Forest this year, by the look of it - not unless they get another change of manager soon; nor probably Burnley, or Brentford, or Sunderland, or Brighton, despite their impressive keeper performances so far) but is a team that is also sometimes vulnerable enough to leave its keeper needing to make lots of saves (so, not Arsenal; nor - despite being a bit flakier now than at their peak - City nor Liverpool), you also really want to take a keeper from a team that you're never likely to want 3 outfield players from. (That's because an in-form outfield player - particularly a forward or a goalscoring midfielder - will almost always give you a much bigger points-lift over the next best alternatives in their position than the best goalkeeper will over his rivals. And you want to retain flexibility to bring in another such player from a good team whenever that hot run of form appears to be emerging....  Taking the goalie from Arsenal or Liverpool or City or Chelsea - or even Spurs or Newcastle or Bournemouth - rarely yields any more points than good mid-table options like Henderson, Pickford, Leno, or Sels; but it is potentially blocking you from being able to bring in a player like Trossard or Eze, or Gakpo or Frimpong, or Marmoush or Doku, or Enzo or Estevao, etc., etc. when you might want them.)

It is quite likely that we'll want (at least) one Newcastle defender at some point this season; currently, Woltemade is starting to look perhaps the most appealing mid-priced forward option; Guimaraes and Tonali are potentially 'in the conversation' for a cheaper midfielder who gets occasional goals as well as good 'defensive contributions' points; and Gordon (or Barnes or Murphy or Elanga) will probably have a good points-scoring run at some point.

Hence, even if there were very strong reasons for fancying Nick Pope as the best goalkeeping option at the moment, I'd hesitate to pick him on club quota grounds; however good he might be, there are probably going to be other Newcastle players you'll want more. It's not as overwhelmingly powerful an argument as it is with Arsenal and Liverpool, but it is a point that should be kept in mind. But there are currently no strong reasons for fancying Nick Pope as FPL's best goalkeeping option.