Squad value - why it matters

I am frequently astounded by how many folks on the FPL forums profess to be utterly uninterested in growing their squad value - positively contemptuous of the very idea; and how often they cite as authority the thoughts on the subject of various supposed 'top performing managers'.  If these people really did say things like that, they're being at best disingenuous, if not dishonest or self-deluding. (And they're probably not really as good at the game as their fans believe....)

I can see that some people become disdainful of squad value because there is a small minority of managers in the game who focus only on that, treating FPL like Monopoly, competing to try to build the most expensive squad by season's end; it's fair enough to dismiss that as weird and silly. And I can see that others want to emphasise other factors in their selection decisions - even if squad value is playing a role too. A lot of people, not unnaturally, resent feeling pressured into making a transfer move early because of an imminent price change,... and want to protest that they never let that happen to them: it's an affirmation of their autonomy, a refusal to bow to the force of circumstance. But that's also weird and silly: you need to pay attention to the changing circumstances of the game, and act accordingly.

Squad value is vitally important.  Here's why:

1) As I explained more fully in an early post on here, Pounds EQUAL Points: the more money you have deployed in your starting eleven, the more points you should be capable of earning each week. (That's not infallibly true in all cases, of course: you still have to make the best possible picks, and enjoy a little bit of good luck. But in general, someone with a 105-million-pound-squad should be able to do substantially better than someone with a 99-million-pound squad.)

2)  More money in the bank doesn't just raise your points ceiling in theory: its more direct practical benefit is the amount of flexibility it gives you. At the start of the season, with the 100-million budget cap, it will have been a struggle to afford all the premium price players you might have coveted. But once you've grown your squad value by 3 million or so, you can bring in at least one more of those... or, perhaps, upgrade more modestly in 2 or 3 other positions.

3)  The unfortunate flipside of this 'flexibility' benefit is that you can be hamstrung by a loss of squad value: a shortfall of just 100 k can prevent you from acquiring a player you want.  This is particularly the case early in the season when, because almost all of the price steps are still in even increments of 500 k, a 100 k loss in squad value is effectively the same as a 500k drop: you can no longer afford anyone at a desired price-point, only half a million cheaper. Occasionally, a sudden price-drop can be even more limiting than that: for example, if you bet on Quansah at the start of this season, and were caught out by his price-drop, you can now only replace him with a 4-million-pound player - and there aren't any decent starters at that price-point; so, you might feel obliged to hang on to the Liverpool youngster, desperately hoping that his price won't fall any further. This is why, especially early in the season, you do need to take care to avoid possible loss of squad value. You should always try to buy players just before they go up in price; and you should always look to sell players who are likely to drop in price.

4)  Furthermore, squad value is an excellent indirect indicator of how well you're playing the game. Good players become popular and rise in value; if you get maximum benefit from their price rises, it means you recognised their value early, anticipated their improving trend in form or good run of fixtures, and were one of the first to buy them. Players who lose form, get injured, or otherwise fall out of favour at their club will lose value; you don't want players like that in your squad; you might move them out quickly to have the benefit of another player in their place giving you better points potential, rather than specifically to avoid a possible drop in price - but the consequence is the same. Once again, preserving your squad value is a precise indicator that you are regularly making good decisions to optimise your squad.

[I would argue that consistent growth in squad value is actually the best indicator of your ability in the game. Average points returns fluctuate from year to year, and are very susceptible to wild swings of luck. Ranking is even more variable, since the number of players in the game - and how good they are... and how lucky they are! - can  change massively from one year to the next; and, as I explained on here before in some detail, the upper reaches of the rankings are inevitably going to be dominated by people who are more-lucky-than-good. But a good rise in squad value every year is a really reliable sign that you're doing as many things as possible right.]

This is why squad value matters. And why it's so vital to move quickly for players you fancy (especially early in the season): if you were interested in bringing in Jackson or Wissa or Muniz or Wood or Welbeck or Vardy, or Salah or Jota or DeBruyne or Smith Rowe, or Romero or Faes.... you probably can't afford to do it any more! And if you have an eye on Savinho or Lewis, or Diaz or Son, you'd better move fast.