Dilemmas of the Week - GW17 (25/26)

After the frenzy of quickfire fixtures around the turn of the month, followed for several teams by a highly consequential sixth tie in the group phase of the European competitions, being 'back to normal' for a little while now feels tremendously restful - really quite a little holiday. But of course, things start getting a bit crazy again at the end of next week. And even this week, we had 5 Premier League teams - Chelsea, Newcastle, Fulham, City and Brentford - involved in League Cup Quarter-Finals, which have taken a further little toll in injuries. And Palace and Arsenal's tie in that competition is still to come, next Tuesday. (If England's football authorities were to take one step to slightly ease the insane fixture congestion in the modern game, I really don't think anyone would mind seeing this competition being restricted - as its name already implies - to just those clubs competing under the umbrella of the English Football League, i.e., the top three tiers of the game outside of the Premier League [which is a separate and superior entity]. Many Premier League teams would obviously prefer to exit the event fairly quickly; and almost all of them regularly field a 'B side', at least until the latter stages, demonstrating that none of them really care all that much about it.)

Also, most clubs will be reeling from having lost a key player or two (or, in some cases, even more) to the African Cup of Nations, which kicks off this Sunday. That is a further element of unpredictability we have to grapple with this weekend!

I'm trying to streamline these weekly round-ups a bit from last year, restricting myself for the most part to just the injuries etc. affecting players that are likely to have a major significance in FPL; and also, of course, only to new injuries - I figure everyone should be aware of players who've already been ruled out for some time!  

[For some years, I have found the 'Injuries & Bans' summary on Fantasy Football Scout the most reliable resource for this kind of information; although this site, Premier League Injuries, is a very good alternative (often a little quicker to update, I think - though it did go through a bit of a glitchy period for a while last year).  Go check these out for more comprehensive coverage. 

I see the Fantasy Premier League site has added an improved 'Player Availability' page this year (though hidden under 'The Scout' tab?!). That also seems to be reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date, but god knows how it's supposed to be 'organised' - maybe by 'date of injury'? Obviously, arranging it by club and alphabetical order would be more sensible; but the denizens of FPL Towers seem to have a deep aversion to the sensible.]

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 17?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The inevitable surge in seasonal injuries has really begun to kick in big time, with Ben White, Daichi Kamada, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Joe Gomez, and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde all having to come off in last weekend's games with pulled thigh-muscles. No clear news on any of them yet, I don't think; all seem likely to be kept on the sidelines for at least 3 weeks or so, but it could be 2 months or more if any of them prove to be serious cases. We also saw Dominic Szoboszlai limping from a heavy knock to the ankle in the Brighton game. Dan Burn, who had to come off against Sunderland after taking a heavy blow to the ribs, is apparently going to be out of action for 4-6 weeks (so, presumably he must have broken some ribs?). Jeremy Doku, who was a surprise late omission from City's match against Palace after a training mishap, has now been confirmed as being likely to miss about 2 weeks with a leg injury. And Bournemouth's Tyler Adams came off in Monday night's thriller at Old Trafford; Iraola said he thought it was an MCL (Medial Collateral Ligament) problem rather than ACL, and not too serious - but it could still keep him out for a few weeks at least.

Danny Welbeck has been struggling with a sore back and hasn't trained much this week, but Hurzeler is modestly hopeful he might be OK this weekend.

Igor Thiago and Jordan Henderson are also both struggling with knocks which kept them out of the midweek League Cup defeat by City. Oscar Bobb came off very early in that match; apparently yet another hamstring injury.

Estevao also had to miss the midweek League Cup game with a minor muscle injury; he is expected to be able to play again after Christmas.

As well as being without Dan Burn, Newcastle had to rest Lewis Hall for the League Cup game against Fulham because of some ominous tightness in the thigh, and he's still considered doubtful for this weekend. And Tino Livramento had to come off in the Fulham game with a knee injury that looks as if it might be at least moderately serious. With Kieran Trippier and Emil Krafth already on the injury list, and not expected to be able to return for at least another couple of weeks, it appears that Newcastle no longer have any specialist full-backs available to them - unless they promote someone from the youth team. (Lewis Miley did a decent job filling in at right-back in the League Cup game, but I wouldn't expect that to be a regular assignment.) I wonder if Howe might switch to a back-three for a while, and try to deploy players like Gordon, Ramsey, Willock or Murphy, or maybe even Elanga, as wing-backs rather than wide attacking players. And at least Yoane Wissa is now available again as an additional attacking option, having played well and scored a fine poacher's goal in the League Cup victory.

Fulham's Sasa Lukic also had to be withdrawn at half-time in that League Cup game with tightness in the groin; though that might have been just 'precautionary'.

Forest midfielder Nicolas Dominguez had to miss last week's win over Spurs with an unspecified knee problem, and goalkeeper Matz Sels also had to give way to his understudy John Victor because of a sore groin muscle.

It's a lucky FPL manager who isn't going to be missing at least 1 of those. Actually, that would be extraordinarily lucky! You're pretty fortunate if you've only got 2 or 3 players here wiped out or extremely doubtful for this week. [This is why it's so dangerous to try to play a Bench Boost in the bleak midwinter.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Jadon Sancho is still a Manchester United player, so can't turn out for Villa against them on Sunday (though Emery hasn't been making much use of him anyway).

Lewis Dunk, Diego Gomez, Casemiro, and Yerson Mosquera are the latest players to earn a one-match ban for picking up a 5th booking of the season. Here the other players now getting close to a 'totting up' suspension.

Sunderland's Luke O'Nien is serving the second part of his three-match ban for a sending-off for 'serious foul play' near the end of the City game a fortnight ago.

Sunderland are likely to be particularly hard-hit by the AFCON departures, losing their midfield lynchpin Sadiki and their first-choice left-back Reinildo, as well as the more intermittently used Talbi, Traore, Masuaku, and Diarra (although at least they'll still have Simon Adingra still avaiable, as he was unexpectedly omitted from the Ivory Coast squad - because he's been getting so few minutes thus far at Sunderland). Manchester United have to do without their only regular goalscorer so far, Mbeumo, as well as wide attacker Amad and back-up defender Mazraoui, while West Ham are losing their preferred full-backs on both sides, Wan-Bissaka and Diouf,; Everton will surely suffer without the influential Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye, and already struggling Fulham could perhaps implode without their influential Nigerian trio of Bassey, Iwobi, and Chukwueze.

Brentford lose Dango Ouattara and Frank Onyeka, Brighton their commanding midfield stopper Baleba, Burnley lose Tuanzebe, Foster, and Hannibal (though he's currently banned anyway),  Palace lose Ismaila Sarr, Liverpool lose Salah, City lose Marmoush and Ait-Nouri (although the latter hasn't been getting any game time anyway), Spurs lose Pape Sarr and Bissouma, while Forest must do without Sangaré (who was superb in the Spurs game last week) and back-up defender Boly.

The 'good news' is that few FPL managers owned any of these anyway, apart from Bryan Mbeumo. And the 'jolly super news' was that 3 of the next most popular African players in FPL so far this year, Antoine Semenyo and Mo Kudus (Ghana) and Yankuba Minteh (Gambia) missed out on qualifying for the tournament this year.

As I observed a few weeks ago, the main impact of AFCON on our FPL fortunes this time around is not going to be felt in the players we lose from our teams (few, if any) but in the effects it may have on the Premier League sides who lose key players; form is going to be even more uncertain, match results even more unpredictable for the next few weeks. At least most of these players should be back again in time for Gameweek 21, kicking off on the 7th January. But any who make it through to the knockout stages won't be available again GW22 or GW23 - perhaps even GW24 for the Finalists.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Fortunately, no. But - even with FPL's generous Early Christmas Present of extra Free Transfers last week! - I doubt if any of us enjoy the luxury of being able to drop someone this week just for showing dodgy form. It seems likely that every available transfer is going to be needed to address injury and suspension issues over the next few weeks.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, Phil Foden does appear to have become the season's 3rd 'essential' pick (after Haaland, and an Arsenal defender...) - even though it's almost certain that he won't produce half as many points over the next 5 or 6 gameweeks as he just has in that remarkable fortnight around the turn of the month! But damn, Rayan Cherki has been looking very, very good of late as well (if you fancy going against the tide...). Harry Wilson and Bruno Fernandes are also justifiably popular picks this week, after a storming run of form over the past 4 gameweeks (trouble is, really hot streaks like this rarely last more than 4 games...). Hugo Ekitike and Morgan Rogers are also being heavily transferred in; but, although they've been playing superbly, I doubt if there's reliable long-term FPL value in them: Villa have been massively over-performing, and are due a downward blip, while Liverpool are only just starting to sort themselves out - and may now be facing another step backwards, without Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Salah, or any recognised right-back [ah, I forgot Bradley's fit again; so, things aren't quite that bad...].  [Well, I was 'wrong' about Villa and Morgan Rogers; they keep grinding out the wins, even without playing that well - which is usually a sign of a potential champion! I'm still a bit wary about young Morgan for FPL, though; he's been in a super-hot little spell of form lately, but he's never in the past been a super-prolific points producer: only a few double-digit hauls per season, almost never gets back-to-back hauls of any sort at all. And I was right about Foden's and Wilson's and Fernandes's streaks coming to an end.]

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!