Luck-o-Meter 25-26 - Gameweek 17

 

I always think of December as 'Random Month': mounting exhaustion, mostly dreadful weather, and a slew of unpredictable 'rest rotations' lead to some yo-yo-ing form and a lot of unexpected results. The seasonal injury crisis is starting to get really bad. And several clubs are also now reeling from the departure of some of their best players to the African Cup of Nations (Fulham, Sunderland, and Manchester United are likely to suffer the most, I suspect).

It was very much the proverbial 'game of two halves' at St James' Park, with Newcastle getting the wind in their sails when Woltemade put them ahead after just 3 minutes. A ramshackle Chelsea can count themselves lucky not to have been 4 or 5 down by half-time, rather than only 2 behind; Woltemade spurned a couple of good chances to complete his hattrick before the break! The visitors were unlucky not to have the chance to pull one back from a penalty, though, when Gordon clearly handled the ball on the edge of his own box; the argument in his favour was presumably that the ball had bounced up from his thigh on to his lower arm; but it wasn't travelling that fast, and he did seem to make a deliberate movement to control the ball. This did feel like another pretty egregious example of The Unwritten Law since the beginning of last season that Chelsea - and Palmer! - are not to be awarded any penalties, if there's any way at all of avoiding the decision. However, things balanced up again in the second half when, although Chelsea were now dominant, Newcastle had two good chances thwarted by blatant fouls in the box. Chalobah's challenge on Gordon was presumably classified as a 'shoulder-to-shoulder' contact, but it was actually a violent stepping across and into the player, making thigh-to-thigh and knee-to-knee contact with so much force that it smacked Gordon off his feet (and extended his knee-joint inwards in a way that might well have ruptured the ligaments, and must surely at least have strained them pretty badly): a horrible foul, and an unarguable penalty. Later on, Reece James made a heroic last-ditch sliding block on Harvey Barnes; but, while he is to be commended for his exceptional effort to regain the ground to cover, he didn't appear to get any of the ball; and even if he did, I don't think that could excuse the way he wiped out the player. James was also extraordinarily lucky not to get sent off for a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' offence just outside the box in the closing minutes of the game: his tug on Barnes's arm was very slight, but it was unmistakeable, and it did crucially impede his progress. A case could be made that the ball was running away from Barnes and Sanchez was always going to get there first; but if his run hadn't been interrupted, that might have been a bit of a 50/50 call, and the keeper might have blinked and backed off a little, rather than risk a high-speed collision. It is absolutely bizarre that James didn't at least get a yellow card for such a cynical foul. There were a number of other very bad decisions in this game, including a couple of ugly challenges that might - probably should - have been straight-red incidents. Andy Madley - and his VAR team - had a horrible day at the office here, and got the gameweek off to a blazing start on the old Luck-o-Meter! Although Chelsea were much improved in the second-half, and had the home side on the rack for much of it, Newcastle surged back gamely in the last quarter of an hour, mounting wave after wave of attacks; Barnes's flying volley in the dying minutes was only inches wide of the post - and Newcastle would probably have been the more deserving winners overall, if only narrowly.

Bournemouth looked fairly comfortably in control against struggling Burnley, but only another fine goal from Semenyo - his second in five days, which might suggest that he has recovered the goalscoring form he was showing at the start of the season - was sepaating the teams; and Iraola will no doubt be dumbfounded that his boys somehow allowed Armanda Broja to power home a free header from a short corner routine in the final seconds of regular time. A valuable point for Burnley; but, with Leeds suddenly resurgent, they are now looking like the weakest side in the relegation battle.

Brighton, as feared, had to do without Danny Welbeck, who's been suffering with back problems. This left them woeifully short of firepower, although they were well below their best in this one and didn't even create very much; their two best chances fell to Yasin Ayari, who blazed them both over the top. Sunderland were also dogged but uninspired, and created no threat apart from a powerful header from Alderete which brought the save of the day out of Verbruggen. Dan Ballard was very lucky to get only a yellow card for a very late and high challenge on Kostoulas. Otherwise, this was a pretty uneventful game.

City predictably rolled over West Ham, and those who bravely hung on for this fixture to bet their Triple Captain chip on Haaland were well rewarded; the big Viking, in fact, came very close to bagging another hattrick late in the game, as well as playing in Reijnders for the second. Foden looked lively again, but, fairly inevitably, couldn't keep his astonishing FPL scoring streak going. He was unlucky, though, to miss out on an assist for the opening goal because Haaland uncharacteristically failed to convert the chance he'd given him at the first attempt and had to follow up on the rebound from Areola's save.

Brentford worked patiently to break down Wolves, and were eventually rewarded with two very slick finishes from Lewis-Potter, who is looking like he might thrive during Dango Ouattara's AFCON absence, and may be becoming a very appealing option in FPL - especially as he's classified as a 'defender'. Kelleher was unfortunate to give away a penalty late on, but was then gifted a chance to save it by a truly awful spot-kick from Strand Larsen: a very lucky break for any FPL managers who'd relied on the keeper for a Free Hit or Bench Boost play this week.

Spurs put on a spirited display against visiting Liverpool, despite being reduced to 10 men by Xavi Simons's deserved dismissal for a ridiculous challenge through the back of his countryman Van Dijk after just half an hour. After going behind to an Isak goal early in the second-half, they actually produced some good chances of their own, but their hopes in the game were soon dashed by a second goal from Ekitike. Richarlison's consolation goal in the 83rd minute, after Liverpool repeatedly failed to clear the ball in a protracted goalmouth scramble following a corner, gave the home side some slight hope; and they even managed one more good chance from Odobert, well saved by Alisson in the dying minutes, even after going down to just 9 men as Romero got himself sent off for a second booking (a relatively trivial but petulant swipe at Konate that might well have been interpreted as a 'violent conduct' red-card offence). In general, the refereeing was pretty good in this one, with no major controversies. The big news for FPL is that it looks as though Isak has probably done his knee ligaments in the act of scoring his goal; unfortunately, Van de Ven's attempt to block scissored him and pinned his left leg, bending it sideways. Although he managed to hobble off the pitch without calling for the stretcher, it did look as if this might well be a season-ending injury.

Arsenal were somewhat fortunate to hang on to the league lead for Christmas, with another unconvincing display that was just good enough at Everton. Trossard cracked a good effort against a post in the second-half, and near the end Saka nearly curled a corner straight in, which had to be clawed away from under the bar by Pickford; but apart from that, the title frontrunners didn't turn their dominance into many clearcut chances, and were lucky that O'Brien's silly handball had gifted them the lead from the penalty spot. The home side looked much more dangerous in the second-half, and really should have had a penalty when Zubimendi clumsily ran into the back of Barry on the edge of the box - yet another game-changing bad decision on one of the worst days of refereeing this season! Some felt the later incident when Saliba clipped Barry's heel as they both stretched to kick a high ball was an even stronger shout, although I found myself - for once - in sympathy with the VAR appraisal that it was an insignificant contact. But I'm not sure what the precise wording of the rules and guidelines on these situations is any more; if any kind of foot-on-foot contact is supposed to be a strict liability offence, then it should have been a penalty. Superstitious Arsenal fans may now be getting a bit nervous that being top at Christmas is not a good omen for them; they've been here in the last two seasons as well, and twice during the Wenger era, and have not yet gone on to lift the trophy.

Another absolutely atrocious decision in the Leeds v Palace game, when Tyrick Mitchell went sliding into Aaronson at the front corner of the box and wiped him out; it was so 'out of control', it probably should have been a red card; and he got absolutely nothing of the ball, so it was undeniably a penalty - but the Palace defender didn't even get a yellow card for it. And once more VAR sat on their hands and said nothing. It didn't ultimately make any difference to the match outcome as the home side bulldozed their weary-looking visitors aside. It is rather baffling how Palace, hitherto one of the best defensive sides in the league, seemed to have no idea how to combat the home side's numerous set-piece routines here, especially from Ampadu's long throws; even more baffling that, with three central defenders, they left the not very physically imposing Adam Wharton to mark Calvert-Lewin. Many FPL managers may have been relying on Dean Henderson for a Free Hit or Bench Boost play this week, as Palace were one of the favourites to keep a clean sheet in this batch of fixtures; but the England No. 2 really did not have a good game here.

Villa and Manchester United produced one of the most entertaining games of the weekend on Sunday. United are starting to show much more cohesion and incisiveness in the final third, their press becoming much more effective, and Cunha finally starting to threaten the goal again (although still a long way from the form he was showing at Wolves last year). But Amorim's protestation afterwards that they were the better side looks delusional; they still lacked any steel in the middle (Ugarte is a joke at this level, and this role is really not Bruno's forte), and were often shockingly poor in defence. United did indeed have probably the better of the chances, especially as they pushed to get back into the game during the last 20 minutes - and Cunha headed wide from one of the best openings in the game. The difference was ultimately Morgan Rogers, who produced two lovely curling shots to undo the visitors (and they'd only really briefly got back into the game due to Matty Cash's uncharacteristic error, giving away possession on the edge of his own box). The most significant aspect of the game for FPL was Bruno Fernandes becoming the latest victim of the seasonal hamstring tweaks: he withdrewfrom the game at half-time, and now seems likely to be out for at least 2-3 weeks. United are so thin in midfield (Kobbie Mainoo was completely missing from the squad, allegedly suffering with a calf-strain - though you wonder if he's getting ready to leave the club in January) that they had to replace Bruno with centre-back Lisandro Martinez; he didn't too badly, and tried a pop at goal from 25 yards that went fairly close - I can see him continuing in the role, alongside Casemiro, while Bruno's missing. No questionable refereeing here, for once. The one major talking point of the game was why Emi Martinez was allowed to stay on the pitch when he must obviously have suffered at least a mild concussion after getting clouted in the side of the head by Cash's knee mid-way through the first-half. The game's supposed 'concussion protocols' are still not as clear, as strict, as protective as they ought to be.

 

The gameweek's final match-up on Monday evening looked to be quite an entertaining encounter, with plenty of fluid end-to-end football - but not many high-quality chances for either side (although Raul and Igor Jesus may both feel they should have picked up one or two goals). In the end, it was decided by Douglas Luiz clumsily giving away a penalty deep in first-half stoppage time - a slight contact, but an undenable one, as he lunged for the ball while sat on the ground and caught the back of Kevin's heel. However, Forest should arguably have had a penalty themselves in the second-half when Raul cannily nudged Milenkovic in the back and sent him sprawling as he jumped to try to head home a cross to the far post. Fulham's Brazilian winger Kevin looks as though he could prove a handful, if now given a run of regular starts; and it's nice to see Antonee Robinson starting to look back to his old self at left-back at last.

The FPL 'Team of the Week' isn't looking quite so crazy as it usually has so far this season, but few would have been expecting Ethan Ampadu or Keane Lewis-Potter - or Dominic Calvert-Lewin! - to crash the list. The large number of FPL managers playing one of the bonus chips - perhaps most commonly, the Triple Captain on Haaland; but there were other possible options for that chip this weekend, and a lot of people were also taking a chance on their Bench Boost or Free Hit, as they're running out of time to use them - will wildly skew the points distribution this week, and considerably bump up the 'average' score. Unlike many recent weeks, a lot of people - nearly all the 'better' managers that I check up on -  are substantially beating the 'global average' of 66 this time: the general range seems to be about 75-90 pooints, although quite a few people have been able to do 15-20 points better than that if they played a chip successfully. Also. unlike last week, there were hardly any in-game injuries, early substitutions or surprise omissions. And Leeds's big win over Palace has been the only surprising result so far.

However, that was one of the worst Saturdays of refereeing we've seen for a very long time (of course, there were a lot of games), with 5 or 6 egregious penalty awards somehow not given, and a number of players very, very lucky to escape red cards. Andy Madley's horror-show at Newcastle on its own probably would probably make this ganeweek at least a 6 or 7, and I think overall it's looking like an 8 out of 10 on the 'Luck-o-Meter'.