Picks of the Week (8)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing..... In practice, I generally only come up with one of these posts once every month or two.

These suggestions here for Gameweek 22 might seem a little late (these players have all been making a mark for a few gameweeks already at least, and are seeing a modest upsurge in transfers now), or perhaps to be too brazenly chasing points (as they've all had particularly good returns in the last match or two), but I'll stand by them - as they are, at present, all still astonishingly under-owned in FPL.

So, first off, we have the Leeds attacking midfielder, Brenden Aaronson. The Yorkshire side really seem to have turned their ragged early season form around: they scored in every league game for the past two months, were unbeaten in December, and only had an astonishing 7-game unbeaten streak ended by a narrow defeat in the high-scoring game at Newcastle last time out. The sudden renaissance of their injury-prone centre-forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been grabbing most of the attention during this spell, but I think Aaronson is even more worth a look for FPL: 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 matches, and he's playing very well and very consistently all-around - he might well have nabbed a few more contributions than that. He looks to me like a player who could keep this little run of points-scoring going quite a bit longer; especially with the fairly amenable set of fixtures the club have upcoming: Fulham, Everton, and Forest in three of their next four. Even the big boys, Arsenal and City, are at least having to come to Elland Road; and the generally not too daunting run continues through March. The question is whether you can find room for another midfielder, with so many tempting options at the moment (Mbeumo and Ndiaye back from AFCON shortly, Palmer finally fit again and facing a very inviting set of fixtures for the next six gameweeks, Semenyo possibly going to prove explosive at City if he gets regular starts..., and Fulham's Harry Wilson in one of the most impressive veins of form we've seen from any midfielder in the last few years). If, however, you are interested in getting a better back-up keeper (Dubravka is looking like a liability now), or another premium forward (has Watkins finally found his scoring boots again?) or midfielder (we're probably going to want Palmer at some point in the second-half of the season, aren't we?), Aaronson looks like an appealing 'budget-enabler' at only 5.4 million pounds. And he's somehow owned by less than 0.5% of FPL managers.

Next, I feel James Garner (the Everton central midfielder, not the Rockford Files actor!) could be worth a moment's consideration. Heck, The Athletic's sharp and amusing analyst, JJ Bull, was recommending him the other day as a potential cure for Manchester United's midfield woes! He's another, like Aaronson, who has been looking increasingly impressive over the last six or seven gameweeks. And there has been a modest rush for him already, after he grabbed a goal and an assist against Forest at the turn of the year. That little 'sheep stampede', though, has quickly lost momentum, and he's still only 3.5% owned! And if you're counting your pennies while coveting a big-money signing, he's even cheaper than Aaronson at just 5.1 million pounds. I think Aaronson has the bigger high-return potential in the short-term, but if you're looking for a dependable medium-term hold, Garner could be a good option. He's not likely to score very often, but his excellent delivery from corners and free-kicks - and even occasionally long-throws - makes him a good prospect for the occasional assist. And he's been a monster for the new 'defensive points', earning them in each of the last 6 games; and he's now second only to Elliot Anderson for his recorded tally of 'contributions'. Everton's form has been flakier than Leeds's of late, but that might change with the imminent return of Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye; and, like Leeds, they have a fairly inviting sequence of opponents ahead (after their visit to Villa Park this weekend).

And if you're looking for a more left-field option as a cheap third striker, it's hard to look beyond Wolves's teen sensation Mateus Mané. The lad is so good, he's obviously going to start every game from here on; and his confidence is sky-high after a couple of goals and an assist in his last two league outings. Over 78,000 people have transferred him in since that breakthrough big haul against West Ham a few weeks back; but he's still owned by less than 0.8%. And he's the only starting forward priced at 4.5 million. (To be fair, Eli Kroupi is only 100k more, and Marc Guiu 300k cheaper; but neither of them are such nailed starters nor such good points prospects, I think.) Wolves are finally showing some signs of improvement under Rob Edwards; and they have a less daunting set of fixtures ahead, after a pretty horrendous December - and even their tougher opponents over the next couple of months or so are mostly home fixtures for them (Newcastle, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Villa, Liverpool). If Mané were classified as a midfielder (and he probably ought to be, on his current starting position), he'd be even more attractive for FPL. But if he keeps on playing like he has in those last two games, he'll be well worth considering as a forward too; and not just as a money-saving forward but, when in top form, perhaps as genuinely one of the best three available. The only things deflecting interest from him are Wolves's horrible team form so far this season, and the fact that FPL managers are not feeling too squeezed for budget at the moment and are mostly opting for the three best forwards they can get regardless of cost - but this may soon change.

One further quick suggestion to finish with - Newcastle's Harvey Barnes. Eddie Howe seems to have doubts about some aspects of his play, perhaps particularly in defensive covering, and has been hesitant to give him much of a run of starts (even when he's been able to stay fit; and that has been a bit of a problem for him since he joined the Tyneside club). And he's facing stiff competition in the wide positions from Gordon, Murphy, Wissa, and Elanga. But he's looking in stupendous form at the moment, is almost equally effective on either flank (where his positional rivals all heavily favour one side or the other), and has more pace and - arguably - better finishing than any of them. Successive braces against Leeds in the League and Portsmouth in the FA Cup have to make him worth a ponder.... If he continues to start and continues this vein of goalscoring form, he's probably a better short-term bet than Garner or Aaronson; but those are fairly big 'ifs' when weighed against the long-term consistency and guaranteed starts of the other two. He's more expensive too, at 6.1 million (but ownership only 1.4%). Newcastle's form has been very inconsistent this season too; and for a long time now, they've struggled particularly on the road. And they've now lost Schar and Livramento again, which could leave them in all sorts of trouble at the back. The upcoming fixtures are a bit of a mixed bag for them too: rather too many top opponents, perhaps, to make any of their players super-appealing picks. But.... when Barnes is in this sort of mood, he's well capable of going on a bit of a tear for 3 or 4 or 5 games and racking up some very nice points. (He is, in fact, a classic example of the sort of pick I really fancy but talk myself out of; and usually then regret having passed up when he scores 25 or 30 points over the following month!)