What makes a 'sheep pick'?

 

A sudden, irrational stampede to buy a certain player may have a few causes. These are the most common:

1)  Being too reactive, being too influenced by events in the last game.  [You can sometimes draw sound conclusions about trends in form - for an individual or a team - from a single performance, but it's difficult, not generally reliable; and you need to look at more subtle details of the all-around play, the interactions between players, intimations of confidence and eagerness in the body-language, etc.... not just the headline events. In general, you need at least two or three games to be confident that a sustained swing in form is emerging.] 

2)  Allowing yourself to be swayed by 'influencers'.... or by 'what everybody else seems to be doing'.  You should always make sure you have a carefully thought-out reason for any selection. The fact that 'a lot of other people are buying him' or 'someone recommended him' is NOT a good reason; in fact, it's more often a bit of a warning 'red flag'!

3)  Allowing yourself to be swayed by personal sympathies (one of the great FPL vices I warned against in an early post back in August): managers are more likely to become over-optimistic about a player's prospects after one 'good performance' if he's someone they already like, or he plays for the team they support.

4)  Being greedy and desperate. FPL managers often become too easily dissatisfied with the current members of their squad, and cast around hastily for possible replacements. It is these emotional, impulsive transfers that tend to result in 'sheep picks'.

5)  Failing to consider the broader circumstances. Very often a 'sheep pick' will look good for one particular reason - yes, this forward is looking sharp in front of goal; yes, this defender is unexpectedly getting a run of starts in a team who haven't conceded many goals; etc. - but his eager buyers are ignoring other important factors like a poor injury record, or uncertainty about him keeping his start, or the impact of possible shifts in tactical formation, or a tough run of upcoming fixtures. With the ones I've highlighted so far this season, the main thing people seem to be overlooking is that, however promising these players might be, there are simply some even better picks at the same price!