Pick of the crop - the most interesting new transfers this year

Gosh, well, things did get especially busy on Tuesday, the last day of this year's summer transfer window for the Premier League - with 30 further deals concluded on that day (many of them in the final hours, and not getting announced until Wednesday). It seems there were 155 moves in total in the window, edging out summer 2019 - narrowly - to set a new record. With some really stupidly eye-watering fees being paid, it must surely have set a new record for the amount of money changing hands as well!

However,... it's also been one of the least interesting transfer windows I can remember, at least in terms of FPL impact!! The majority of signings seem to have gone to the promoted sides, and/or to be mainly filling out 'squad depth' rather than providing likely new key starters.

Below are what I consider the likely highlights - for FPL - of this summer's business. Particularly noteworthy players are in bold; and the most promising FPL prospects are bold and underlined.

PSG winger Bradley Barcola going to Liverpool is the only really 'world class' talent to join the league; and he's arrived too late in the window to be in immediate contention. With Liverpool still struggling to get to grips with the Iraola system, it might be some weeks before we're considering him (or any Liverpool players!!) for our Fantasy squads.

To be fair, Johan Manzambi and Ayyoub Bouaddi can probably be called 'world class' too; but they're young and unproven at the top level; and the former is injured, and joining a Villa side who look set to struggle this season, while the latter is not guaranteed regular starts in an overstocked City midfield. Bouaddi is, in any case, a holding midfielder, and thus not likely to be of any interest in FPL. Manzambi, the Swiss winger who had such an impressive World Cup this summer, and Barcola are a pair of players that I covet in anticipation; but, remembering how badly Wirtz floundered at the start of last season, I won't be rushing to bring either of them in until they've proved some form.

Some of the most interesting moves have occurred amongst the goalkeepers: new arrivals Konstantinos Tzolakis (joining Hull from Olympiakos, and currently leading the keeper rankings - although you suspect the promoted side's bubble of early success must burst soon...?), Lukas Hornicek (coming to Newcastle from Braga, and also looking very impressive in his first few outings), and Zion Suzuki (the Japanese national keeper, coming from Parma to replace Emi Martinez at Villa), and perhaps Michele di Gregorio (joining Bournemouth from Juventus - although Petrovic has looked so good at the start of the season that he's surely in no imminent danger of losing his start) all look very tempting new options at only 4.5 or 5.0 million pounds. However, the biggest goalie move of the summer is probably Jamie Trafford going to Leeds (how City fans must be regretting that now, with the form Donnarumma has been showing in the last few weeks!): he is currently looking like not just the best 'budget' keeper option in FPL this season, but maybe the best overall.

Amongst the defenders, the two biggest moves were the asset-stripping of Crystal Palace, with Maxence Lacroix (a bit of a monster for the 'defensive contributions' last season) going to Chelsea (who, at the moment, seem to be having an internal competition to see if they can concede as many goals as they score) and Daniel Munoz joining Forest (a bit of a damning snub to Palace, as Forest finished so much lower in the league than them last season!). Munoz is again likely to be the most popular FPL asset, for his significant attacking threat (though I'll be sad to see Ola Aina, a player I really like, presumably being displaced as the Forest right-back). It's interesting to see Ainsley Maitland-Niles (joining Everton) and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (joining Villa) return to the Premier League - but will they get starts over Rohl and Cash (and Harwood-Bellis?)?? But the more intriguing new arrivals, I think, are the Bosnian right-back Amar Dedić (joined Newcastle from Benfica, and has looked outstanding so far - but will he keep his start once Livramento is fit again?), Hull's Senegalese left-back Nobel Mendy (I know, we might not want to keep Hull players for long - but he has looked very good in the opening two games), and England's own Taylor Harwood-Bellis moving from Southampton to Villa (playing more as a centre-back of late, although he's also looked good at full-back in the past; and I could see him possibly even playing on the wing; but given Konsa's departure, the centre-back slot is probably where they most need a replacement). Jérémy Jacquet has started well at Liverpool, and looks their most impressive defensive acquisition in quite a while; but, unfortunately, they are still all over the the place defensively, so I doubt if many people will be rushing in for him just yet. Luka Vuskovic, the 19-year-old Croatian centre-back Brighton signed from Spurs to replace Van Hecke, is a fantastic young prospect, and is looking set to be a regular starter alongside Dunk; but the game didn't price him very kindly at 5.0 million.

In midfield, Morgan Rogers could thrive in a more exuberant attacking side at Chelsea, and seems to particularly relish playing alongside his childhood friend, Cole Palmer. The early signs there are extremely promising (but... you probably only want one Chelsea midfielder; and, at the moment, that's looking like it should be Palmer). The young Ghanaian winger, Abdul Fatawu, who looked so dangerous when he was in the Premier League with Leicester a couple of years ago, and the very skillful Paraguayan Julio Enciso are both intriguing prospects at Ipswich; you wonder if they'll be able to have much long-term impact with such a weak side - but they're worth keeping an eye on for a possible short run of hot form. Arsenal's new Greek left-winger, Christos Tzolis, got their fans over-excited when he enjoyed a very lively run during the pre-season friendlies; that enthusiasm evaporated very quickly when he had a dog of a game against Villa on Monday night, picked up an early booking, and was pulled off at half-time. He continues to be a promising prospect; but at the moment, Martin Odegaard is the same price and in even better form.... (and you'd surely go for Saka over either of them, if you could find enough cash under the mattress!). Liverpool's Victor Munoz also shows promise; but, with Gakpo staying (for now) and Barcola probably getting a regular start on the right-wing, his minutes are likely to be limited; I suspect he'll make fairly regular bench appearances to replace one or the other of those other wide players, but will rarely get a start. And the swap of Brennan Johnson and Dwight McNeil between Crystal Palace and Everton is intriguing. Both lost their way rather last season (so dramatically that you worry there may have been some deep personal problem behind that, whether injury, illness, family issues, or general 'mental health' difficulties); but both are talented players who have been useful FPL assets in the past, and could be again - if they're trusted with regular starts once more. Many are hopeful that Leeds can offer Harry Wilson a slightly more stable platform to excel upon than floundering Fulham, but... I'm afraid I doubt if he can recreate that astonishing form he showed through the middle of last season. And with strong competition from the likes of Ampadu, Okafor, Aaronson, Gnonto, and James, I'm not even confident he'll hold on to a regular start with the Yorkshire club. But we can wait and see, and keep our fingers crossed.

Among the forwards, Taiwo Awoniyi moving from Forest to Coventry, to fill in for the crocked Haji Wright (who played such a big role in their title-winning success last season) and Zian Flemming (impressive with Burnley last season) going to Ipswich might be of interest for filling out the budget 3rd seat. And Nicolas Jackson - for whom Villa just paid Chelsea an astonishing 65-million pounds!! - might relish another chance to shine in the Premier League, after being rather unceremoniously let go by Maresca at the start of last year, just when he appeared to be getting his act together (although if he falters, he might soon be under pressure from young Brian Madjo, who looked white-hot in pre-season). However, the only really exciting addition in this position is Canadian striker Promise David at Brighton; if he gets regular starts and lives up to his potential - I think he could prove to be the best 6.0-million-pound forward in FPL this season.

Most of the transfers that have created the most noise this summer don't excite me very much. Many of them, I fear, might simply be destabilizing: buying in players who are too good for the bench may unsettle the players whose places they apparently threaten, or disrupt tactics and relationships within the squad if they are shoehorned in just to keep them happy - and ultimately this is likely to leave players and fans dissatisfied. I just don't see how Bruno Guimaraes and Ezri Konsa are going to get any starts at Arsenal, unless they suffer a bunch of injuries to established players. I don't see how Enzo Fernandez fits at City; he just threatens to delay Bouaddi's introduction as the regular second pivot, or to displace Foden/Cherki further forward - neither of which I see as desirable (and, from the online discussion over the past week or so, it seems that a lot of City fans don't either). Illiman Ndiaye is far too good to be left sitting on the bench until Doku or Semenyo pick up an injury; but that's surely what's going to happen to him (I do not understand players accepting moves to big clubs where they're not going to get any minutes; it's throwing their careers away). And all the fine players who've gone to Spurs - Senesi, Van Hecke, Tosin, Fernandes, Tonali, Savinho, Marmoush, Mudryk(?!) - are already looking doomed to suffer under that club's curse of being able to transform silk purses into sow's ears. Their start this season has been even worse than last year's; they need a dramatic turnaround very quickly, or they're going to be in the relegation fight all season again.

Two of the other most intriguing arrivals, in terms of skill and potential impact, are Valentin Barco and Marco Palestra - but neither of them are looking likely to get regular gametime with Chelsea so far.

The transfers with the biggest real-world impact are probably going to be those of top holding midfielders: Elliot Anderson going to City, Carlos Baleba to Manchester United, Nico Gonzalez to Newcastle, Mamadou Sangaré to Brentford, Joao Gomes to Villa, and Sasa Lukic to Ipswich. These are all moves that could be transformative for the receiving clubs - but are of absolutely zero interest in FPL, because 'defensive contributions' points, on their own, are not enough to merit inclusion in a Fantasy squad.

So, that's my rundown of the most interesting transfers: a number of 'ones to watch', but.... no immediate 'must-haves'.

'All over' already??

Well, it feels very much like it, doesn't it?

Nearly 5 million FPL managers owned Bruno Fernandes going into last weekend, and it seems around 1.8 million of them put the captain's armband on him. Although no official figure has been released yet, it seems likely that perhaps half of those played their Triple Captain chip on him.

So, those of us who didn't have Fernandes as our captain - or perhaps didn't own him at all - may have fallen behind the early leaders by as much as 50 or 60 points in a single gameweek, thanks to Bruno's improbably huge haul against Ipswich on Sunday.

And that is a massive, massive blow. Against good players, who are not making many blunders, and mostly achieving pretty consistent weekly returns, it will probably take us until the New Year to chip away at that kind of deficit (at least, in our normal week-by-week returns: if we could pull off a similarly huge coup with our Triple Captain play, or one of the other bonus chips - that would be a big help in getting back on terms rather more quickly). And we might not manage it even across the whole of the remainder of the season (amongst the handful of consistently strong managers I regularly compare myself against, there's often no more than 50 or so points between all of us through most of the season).

But this is a hard, cruel, frustrating game. We must accept that this is so - and keep trying to do the best we can with it, however much early setbacks may appear to have killed our hopes of achieving many of our original goals for the season.

I have two sources of consolation that may help. One is that one of my chief antagonists is wildly inconsistent, tends to start hot but... go walkabout in the second half of the season - and often contrives to piss away a 200 or even a 300-point lead in a matter of months. (He's not in a commanding position at the moment, and is probably not going to be my main threat this year. But at least this reassures me that weaker managers can allow you to make up even a very big gap on them.)  The second is that in the two mini-leagues I have the strongest personal investment in, only two managers own Bruno Fernandes (and they hadn't made him captain this week!). 

So, fortuitously enough, even though I might now struggle to finish in the top half million overall, my mini-league positions are still fine.

I recommend that everyone who has been wiped out by the Bruno Landslide should look for similar consolations. Even if the top spot in your most highly contested leagues looks out of sight at the moment,... it may not be. And, well, even if it is, there must be at least one key rival who shared your no-Bruno misery and is thus still within reach. 

Concentrate on the goals which still seem achievable, and forget - at least for now - about the ones that seem to have slipped away from you already.

Even a very good player... may not be worth AN EARLY-SEASON TRANSFER

At the start of the season, with no reliable information to go on about who's likely to be in the best form in the opening games, we're all betting blind on our initial squads. Hence, Gameweek 1 usually goes badly - sometimes very, very badly! - for the majority of FPL managers.

And that... tends to make many of them very impatient. They see the players who had a good Gameweek 1, and they want to buy them immediately. 

Now, quite apart from the fact that one game is no guide to anyone's form (well, hardly anyone's...) and so you really don't know who's worth transferring in this early in the season, it's a good idea anyway to hoard transfers like gold dust at the start of the year.

It's always been very valuable to 'roll' Free Transfers on to a later week, so that you could have the option to use 2 at once (for a long time, 2 was all you could hold at one time). Since they changed the rule a couple of years ago (a rare, perhaps unique example of a good rule change in the game) to allow us to hold up to 5 Free Transfers, we can now in theory build up to a mini-Wildcard every 5 gameweeks. In practice, that's very difficult - nearly impossible (and often self-harming even to attempt) - to achieve; but to have the ability to use even 3 or 4 Free Transfers at once, rather than 1 or 2, as in the past, is enormously valuable: it gives you so much more flexibility to reallocate budget - exchanging for a cheaper player in one position so that you can get a more expensive one in another (rather than just being stuck with like-for-like transfers at a similar price-point, if you're only using 1 transfer at a time).

So, even if you are confident of a player's outstanding form after only one or two games of the new season,... you should probably still hold off acquiring him for a further week or two - not only to confirm your judgement of his points-potential, but also to give you the facility to make other complementary changes and perhaps rejig the distribution of your squad budget across the position categories.

Also, of course, while the transfer window is still open, new arrivals - or departures - can have a tremendous knock-on effect on how well teams and individual players perform. So, it's best to defer any FPL purchase decisions until all the real-world transfer business is resolved.

Sometimes, it's better to wait a little for the things you covet....

A Bench Boost is best played OPPORTUNISTICALLY

I discussed last week how all the arguments commonly put forward in favour of chancing the first Bench Boost chip in Gameweek 1 of the season were utterly misguided.

I think that, in general, having too rigid a plan on when to use any of your chips is a bad idea - but perhaps particularly so with the bonus chips (and even more particularly so in the first-half of the season, when there are no 'special circumstances' like Blank or Double Gameweeks to skew our calculations of risk/reward for the chips).

Team (and individual) form can shift drastically in a short space of time: so, you just don't know much in advance when all of your 15 squad members are going to be looking particularly sharp, or when all - or most - of them are going to be facing especially appealing fixtures.

In general, for the Bench Boost, it is much better to wait until at least a few - ideally, in fact, probably several - weeks into the season, when teams have settled into some consistent form, as they've got used to changes in player and coaching personnel and new tactics. The first few gameweeks of the season are always erratic, wildly unpredictable; almost no-one shows much consistency, and few if any teams are yet anywhere near their peak performance.

Now, you can sometimes 'set up' ideally for a particularly promising set of fixtures by using the Wildcard shortly beforehand (ideally, in the gameweek immediately prior). But, if you're having to make that many changes from your normal squad, the chances are that this is not going to be an ideal set of players going forward; you're probably sacrificing some points in subsequent weeks, just to try to slightly improve your yield from the Bench Boost; and that's almost certainly not going to be worth it.

And there are so many 'moving parts' in  a successful Bench Boost - needing all 15 players to start, and nearly all of them to haul - that it hardly ever pays off that well; you almost always have something go wrong: one or two last-minute drop-outs, or one of the teams you have the strongest representation from having an unexpectedly awful game, etc.

Therefore, you almost certainly have a much better chance of achieving some success with a Bench Boost, if you keep a strong squad - with a strong bench - throughout the season,... so that you are able to consider playing the Bench Boost in almost any gameweek that suddenly seems opportune, with the way everyone's team and individual form is looking for the next set of fixtures.  [A really good set of fixtures, with everyone in your squad fit and in form, in a regular Single Gameweek is usually a better prospect than a Double Gameweek. The notion that you have to play Bench Boost - or Triple Captain - in a Double Gameweek in the second-half of the season is an entrenched FPL fallacy. Few double-fixtures are actually 'good' double-fixtures; and it's almost always a mistake to load up entirely on doubling players in such a gameweek.]

This is another of the reasons why you need your bench, and why it is foolhardy to go light on your substitute selections. Even at the start of the season, trying to conserve budget by choosing weak players, or non-starting players, for the bench positions is a self-harming false economy.

[Much the same applies to the Triple Captain chip. There are only a handful of players that are usually candidates for this, and only a handful of 'most likely' fixtures for its use. But still, there may be some surprising shifts in form that change those expectations, or add some additional options at short notice. It is unwise to decide at the very beginning of the season what Haaland's or Palmer's or Fernandes's 'best' fixture is going to be; you don't usually know until a week or two beforehand!]