To Konsa, or not to Konsa?

Ezri Konsa is seen by many as being an irresistibly affordable 'route into the Arsenal defence'. And I can see that temptation: while he has a start in the team, he does indeed represent a very attractive 'value'. But as soon as he loses that start, he becomes a huge waste of money. And I think most of his recent adopters have been rather blindly over-optimistic about his prospects of keeping his start for very long.

Indeed, there does seem to have been quite a divergence of opinion on Konsa in the FPL community over the past few weeks: while he has now seen over 1,000,000 transfers in during that period, he's also suffered around 530,000 transfers out - and his price did in fact briefly dip down to 4.4 million just after his move to Arsenal (either managers were shocked/disappointed when he didn't immediately start, or just recognised that his prospects of a regular start might now be much lower; Villa are a much weaker defensive team, but at least he would have been playing every single minute for them).

Those who rushed in for Konsa now feel vindicated because he's started the last two games. They mostly seem to have been convincing themselves that he was always bound to move into the Arsenal side almost immediately, and would remain a fixture until Saliba is fully fit again (which seems as though it might be at least a couple more months). But the only arguments they seemed to be able to adduce for this bold assumption were that he was an England player (well, yes; but he's only just started becoming a first-choice starter - and England have been conspicuously short of much established quality to draw upon in the centre-back position for a while now; so, that's really not a very powerful recommendation) and that Arsenal wouldn't have paid over 50 million quid for him just to be a bench player (although they have recently spent a ton of money on players like Gyokeres, Eze, and Guimaraes - who are obviously going to spend most of their time on the bench); both rather spurious justifications, relying on 'status' rather than merit.

The fact is, Konsa has only got the chance to be integrated into the starting lineup so quickly because Christhian Mosquera suffered a muscle injury. This problem appears to be fairly minor, and he might be available for selection again any day now; indeed, Arteta hinted that he might have been ready to participate against Sunderland at the weekend (although, in fact, he was not even on the bench). I like Konsa and rate him fairly highly; but I don't think he's clearly better than Mosquera, who has looked absolutely outstanding whenever he's been called upon to deputise for Saliba over the last 12 months. 

And even if Konsa did offer potential advantages over Mosquera in certain aspects of his game, a defence relies very heavily on its members developing a close rapport with the rest of the back-line and the keeper: a rapport that depends not only on an intimate understanding of teammates' strengths and weaknesses, their style of play and style of communication on the pitch, but on the underlying personal relationships too - a deep trust that grows out of genuine camaraderie and friendship; that level of understanding doesn't come about overnight. Moreover, Arteta is a notoriously detail-oriented coach, and you might expect that it may take some weeks - if not perhaps even a couple of months - before a new player could fully absorb all of his tactical precepts. For these reasons alone, I thought - and still think - it unlikely that Konsa would be preferred for an immediate starting spot in the Arsenal defence over more established players, unless an injury crisis creates an opening for him.

I would certainly prefer Mosquera to Konsa - at least for now - if only for his experience within Arteta's system and his familiarity with the rest of the defensive unit. But I'm not Mikel Arteta! Who knows the mind of Mikel Arteta?? Many Arsenal fans like to assume that they do; but they're deluding themselves.

There are other strong options - possibly/probably stronger than Konsa! - for the role of Saliba's stand-in as well. Timber's now recovered from injury, and has occasionally played in that second centre-back slot quite capably. I can see Arteta might be a bit concerned about his physical suitability for the role (he's only about 5'10" tall, so probably lacks the commanding aerial presence of most of his other centre-back options), but he could slot in at right-back or left-back, allowing White or Calafiori to partner Gabriel. Hincapie too could play in that position, or take over at left-back, again allowing White or Calafiori to move into the centre.

So, Konsa cannot as yet be regarded as a nailed starter, the obvious, usual first choice. And even if he does soon appear to have become such, with so many other strong candidates for a start in defence, it seems doubtful to me that he can ever be relied upon as an invariable starter.

And even if Konsa does get a regular run of starts, he's under a lot of pressure from the 'club quota' too. With so many Arsenal players clamouring for consideration in an FPL squad, is his cheapness really a decisive recommendation? Konsa doesn't seem likely to offer very much attacking threat, and with Arsenal dominating possession so easily against most teams, he might not produce that many 'defcon' points either (Gabriel is the only Arsenal defender who's regularly registering those so far). Calafiori is looking much the most appealing pick from the Arsenal defence, with a regular prospect of assists or goals as well as his share of the collective clean sheet bonuses. But White has also looked a very strong option; and Timber will probably become so as well, if he regains a regular start. Odegaard and Saka have started the season in blistering form; Rice is likely to again be a very dependable source of midfield points; the new winger Tzolis has shown a lot of promise; Kai Havertz is gaining attention as a potential 2nd/3rd forward pick; and David Raya is currently by far the most popular goalkeeper pick (with nearly 40% ownership; I don't agree with it myself - several of the 5.0 and 4.5-million-pound options are likely to at least do very nearly as well; but after his penalty save against Sunderland, he is for now at the top of the goalkeeper charts, so his owners aren't likely to reconsider their choice for a while). 

I think it's a bad idea to treble up on any team this early in the season. Apart from anything else, it's nice to be able to keep the fexibility to easily bring in a third player when form or fixtures strongly encourage it (will Havertz clearly establish himself as a leading forward option? will Tzolis hit a hot streak?). And you really don't ever want to be more than doubled-up from the same club in one area of the pitch. So, if you already have Calafiori and another Arsenal defender or David Raya, there simply isn't any room for Konsa. And if you pick Konsa over one of those other Arsenal options (perhaps one you already owned, and chose to let go) - are you sure that money you saved is going to buy you more points in another area of the pitch than it would have done by sticking with Calafiori (or White or Raya or Gabriel or whoever)??

Perhaps Konsa will keep his start over Mosquera and the rest. Perhaps he'll get a long run of games for the next two or three months. Perhaps he'll luck into one or two headed goals and get some strong 'defcon' returns. And perhaps he'll prove to be not only the cheapest Arsenal defender but one of their best points-returners too. But to me, none of those things seem terribly likely. This selection might work out,.... but it is a very big gamble. (Not the sure thing his adopters are trying to convince themselves it is!!)