Picks of the Week (7)

DISCLAIMER: I always refuse to identify myself as any sort of FPL 'guru' or 'mentor' or 'expert'. And I have previously on this blog expressed my reluctance to share many details of my own selections, or to make very specific player recommendations.

However, in addition to occasionally critiquing common 'sheep picks' of the moment (not all necessarily outright bad, but ridiculously over-popular selections), I will occasionally try to highlight one or two players who seem not yet to be very widely owned but are starting to look very tempting prospects.

I will generally try to come up with at least 2 options per week - so that it doesn't look like I'm making a sole recommendation. And these suggestions are intended to be simply 'worth thinking about', not at all 'must-haves'. (And some weeks, most weeks, I'll have nothing.....)

Now, these ideas for Gameweek 16 of this season are perhaps even more speculative than usual.... I reiterate that none of the prospects I tend to discuss in this series are categorically unmissable opportunities, they're more intriguing possibilities that are perhaps being unduly overlooked. And there may be more of those than usual this week because so many people are using up all or most of their AFCON Free Transfer bonanza straight away - making this one of the busiest weeks of transfer activity in the whole season (very probably the busiest!); and yet there are a relative handful of 'most popular transfers' dominating that activity so far, and it doesn't include any of these guys. I am not trying to say my trio below are 'better' than any of those many much, much more popular picks; but I do think they are worth some consideration.

So, first up, I give you Mason Mount. Of course, the reservations about him would be the fact that he's playing for Manchester United, who, though greatly improved this season, are still showing rather inconsistent and unconvincing form; that form might well get even worse when they lose their - so far - only consistent goal-threat in Mbeumo, and one of their most potentially game-changing creative talents in Amad Diallo to AFCON next week; and lastly, of course, his terrible injury record since joining the club has undermined a lot of people's faith in his being able to stay fit for any length of time (or his being able to inspire his manager to trust him with regular minutes). But to counter that, I would say that we know from his performances at Chelsea - and for United, whenever he's managed a start - just how good he can be; and he has looked absolutely on fire recently, scoring a goal in each of his two recent starts for United. Moreover, I think the AFCON departures actually work in his favour: the most obvious slot for him to slip into is as a replacement for Mbeumo in the right-sided 'deep attacker' role; and the only other person who can really fill that slot is Diallo. So, if he can stay fit, he's pretty much guaranteed a start, I think; and probably in the role that gives him the most opportunity to register attacking contributions. And the fixtures are quite encouraging: a very nice run of Wolves, Leeds, and Burnley over the holidays, but recently faltering Bournemouth up next could be a good opportunity too, and Villa and Newcastle aren't too daunting either: Villa have been 'over-performing' dramatically, and are due for a stutter, while Newcastle usually struggle a bit away from home.

Next.... I rather fancy Emile Smith Rowe from Fulham as well. As with Mount, the main problem with him is his poor injury record in the last couple of seasons, and his shortage of starts so far this year, which have raised questions not only about his resilience to knocks, but more generally about his stamina and fitness (it may just be an unfortunate quirk of his physiognomy that he almost always looks just slightly overweight for a professional footballer....). But also like Mount, he has looked absolutely on fire in his last couple of outings for the club, and has an opportunity now to get much more regular gametime, with Alex Iwobi about to head off to AFCON. Moreover, it would appear that he's likely to be used in a central creative role, the kind of 'No. 10' space where he really thrives,... and that he's also now looking to break into the box with late runs pretty often, which may give him the opportunity to pick up quite a few goals as well as assists. This might be only a short-term punt, and I do have worries about how badly Fulham's already precarious form may suffer with the sudden loss of not only Iwobi but also Bassey and Chukwueze to the Nigeria squad, but.... their next three fixtures look very inviting: Burnley, Forest, and West Ham. The most popular Fulham transfer in FPL this week has been Harry Wilson, and I can see the appeal: he's been a fairly regular starter this year, and has been in pretty consistently outstanding form - with slightly better than one attacking contribution per two starts, including a few absolute bangers of goals. But he's had 335,000 Fantasy managers buy him this week, compared to less than 13,000 so far for Smith Rowe; and that's an unreasonable imbalance - it implies that people are just jumping on a bandwagon without fully considering the possible alternatives. As I said in this key post on the real meaning of 'differential' back at the start of this season, it is a mistake to suppose that there's any advantage in simply favouring less popular, lower-owned players in FPL; but.... if there's really nothing objectively to choose between two possible picks, then ownership level should be the tiebreaker. And I really believe that Smith Rowe's prospects in the next few gameweeks look just about as good as Wilson's, and possibly just a little bit better - but no-one's on him at the moment!

Finally, with Arsenal currently missing their three first-choice centre-backs to injury (which makes their remaining defenders slightly less secure picks than before; and Calafiori's missing with suspension this week too!), and Palace likely to be without their hugely influential right wing-back Daniel Munoz for at least a month, there's suddenly the scope to try out one or two new options in an FPL defence - and Newcastle full-back Tino Livramento looks like a very appealing possibility. He has looked absolutely sensational since his return from injury a month ago, and has helped to transform the performances of the entire team; he hasn't recorded any FPL returns yet, but that's surely just a matter of time. I am hesitant to back his team in their next game, as the North-East derby can be particularly volatile, and Sunderland this year are looking a really solid team; but they then have Manchester United, Burnley, Leeds, and Wolves in the next 5 weeks - one of the better fixture runs for any team at the moment. I do feel, though, that it's really a bit of a toss-up between him and his left-back teammate, Lewis Hall. Hall, for me, can be even more of an attacking prospect, but.... he doesn't always get so far forward down that flank, because Gordon and Barnes like to stay wide in the final third; and he's more recently back from injury, might not yet be trusted with heavy minutes in the packed holiday schedule.

So - there you have it: my 'Early Christmas Present' - 3 rather less expected 'ones to watch' over the coming weeks!