Sheep Picks (8)

 

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

And gosh, it's been nearly three months since I last offered one of these. I doubt if sheepiness has been in abeyance over the holidays; it is purely an oversight on my part.

Here goes, then....

Yep, I know I'm asking for trouble with this one. Before he'd even kicked a ball for City, Omar Marmoush already had a passionate fanbase among Egyptian FPL managers - and African ones, and Muslim ones. And when Pep - slightly surprisingly? - trusted him with an immediate starting place in the team, and he was immediately so lively and dangerous... well, it wasn't unnexpected that his ownership would start soaring: now up to nearly 6.5%. Now, I agree, he does look a tremendously talented player. And if he were classified in the game as a 'midfielder', I might be all over him.  But as a forward, his appeal is much more limited - principally because we already have such strongly established leading picks in that position: Isak, Cunha, and Wood; with the likes of Wissa, Mateta, Joao Pedro, Raul, and now perhaps Beto vying strongly as alternatives for the third seat, if one of the current 'big three' loses form. I can see Marmoush might get into that conversation; but I don't think he's quite there yet, on the back of one hattrick. (It is a definiing characteristic of The Sheep that they always immediately buy any player who scores a hattrick!)  With City's form still looking very flakey, and Haaland now possibly added to the injury list (it looked to me very much as though he'd suffered a cartilage tear; a minor one you can sometimes continue to play with - but it's asking for trouble; and I would imagine he'll need a keyhole surgery as soon as possible, which will rule him out for a few weeks at least), Marmoush at the moment looks a very risky pick to me. (Some might feel that an absence from Haaland might improve his opportunities up front. But I think the big Norwegian's role is vital in occupying central defenders to create spaces for players like Marmoush to move into to find scoring opportunities. Marmoush made zero impression against Real this week without his giant striking partner to batter those holes in the back-line for him.) Moreover, City have quite a tough little run of fixtures still ahead of them in the League: even Spurs might be about to initiate a bit of a resurgence, and have been something of a bogey team for them in recent years; Liverpool and Forest are certainly likely to be very difficult games - and Brighton might not be any pushover. 

So, I'm not writing Marmoush off by any means; but I think his potential value in FPL will be very dependent on whether - and how well - City can rally themselves for the final part of the season, and on how well the other leading strikers' form holds up. For me, he's very much a wait-and-see at the moment.