Sheep Picks (7)

I quite often snipe at 'The Sheep' element among Fantasy Premier League managers - by which I mean the substantial numbers (possibly, alas, an overall majority) who don't really understand FPL that well, or even follow the EPL that closely, and so make most of their decisions based on an impulsive reaction to last week's results... and/or at the promptings of FPL's own vapid pundit 'The Scout' or the many similarly unimaginative 'influencers' out here on the Internet.... or indeed just following whatever seems to be a popular pick being mentioned a lot in online discussion forums. This often coalesces into a kind of collective hysteria - where the HUGE numbers of managers rushing in to buy a certain player bears no relation to his true worth, his likely points potential over the next handful of games. The player in question might not be at all bad (though often he is); but he is not the irresistible bargain, the must-have asset that so many people seem to think.

Hence, I created this occasional series of posts highlighting players I think are deangerously over-owned, are the subject of a sudden and misguided enthusiasm.

Brazilian forward Matheus Cunha is certainly in the form of his life at Wolves just now. And after his two stunning goals (and an assist) in the unexpected demolition of Fulham last week, there's a fair old avalanche of FPL managers falling over themselves to buy him. He's now returned in 6 of his last 8 starts, and has a total of 7 goals and 3 assists for the season. People point to his exceptional talents, and to signs of a general uptick in form for Wolves, and a far more promising run of fixtures through to the end of the year (after their brutally difficult start to the campaign, which left them feeling unfortunate about being rooted to the bottom of the table).

He'd already become a very popular pick over the last month or so, but around 750,000 people have transferred him in this week, catapulting him to a massive 18.5% ownership.

Now, if I'd got Cunha in 3 or 4 weeks ago, I would be very pleased that I had; and I'd be quite happy to hang on to him for a while longer.

However, whether to acquire him now is a rather different question. I have a number of misgivings about that. In fact, I have a very strong hunch that the current enthusiasm for Cunha may evaporate quite soon - like the great Tulip Bubble in the 1630s.

Here are my reasons for doubt:

1)  Cunha, although he has been getting into advanced positions a lot more in recent games, apparently with the encouragement of his coach Gary O'Neill, is not the main goalscorer at the club; he's a support striker, mainly focused on trying to create space and provide service to the more conventional centre-forward, Strand Larsen. I therefore suspect that this rush of goalscoring from him is just a blip, and that in the longer-term we are likely to see more assists than goals from him. That could still add up to some very handy returns; but perhaps not enough to satisfy the greedy expectations of those who are currently buying him for FPL.

2) The sudden rush for him now does smack a bit of the classic FPL vice of 'chasing last week's points', foolishly hoping that because he just got a huge haul in the last gameweek, it's going to happen again this week. In fact, of course, very few players manage to produce a really big return in successive weeks, or even twice within a month. So, in fact, Cunha is statistically quite likely to have one or two relatively disappointing gameweeks now. (Moreover, the mantle of being the 'Week's Most Transferred-In Player' is itself a bit of a hoodoo in FPL; 8 or 9 times out of 10, the bearer of this dubious accolade produces a 'blank'.)

3)  He did suffer quite a lot of injuries last season, so there's a high anxiety now about how long he can hold up physically. This fear might be compounded slightly by the prevalent suspicion that South American players - the more elegant creative types, anyway - tend not to bear up well under the stresses of an English winter (although I feel this was probably more of a '90s trope, and has much less validity today).

4)  Wolves are at the bottom end of the table for a reason; it hasn't been just bad luck with their early fixtures. They have been absolutely dreadful defensively; and this means that they're not enjoying much controlled possession in games; and often are already behind and rather desperately chasing a result even when they do get some good possession. These are not conducive circumstances for regular returns from your strikers. And Wolves haven't really yet shown any evidence of a fundamantal shift in performance: their less-bad form of recent games could evaporate again at any moment.

5)  Given the multiple deficiencies of the team as a whole, I find it hard to get too optimistic about the supposedly favourable fixture run they're in. Frankly, a team this bad doesn't have any 'good' fixtures. There are only 4 or 5 teams poor enough to finish below them; and even these will be tough opponents, because those games will all be crucial relegation 'six-pointers'. And Wolves's fixtures lurch again soon, from perhaps-not-that-challenging for the next few weeks to absolutely abysmal from late December... right on all the way through January and February. I will be very surprised if Wolves aren't nailed to the bottom of the table again, and perhaps fallen a little out of the touch with those above them, by late February. And that, in turn, means that they'll probably be going through the turmoil of a change of manager at some point in the next couple of months.

6)  Cunha's price has now shot up from his opening 6.5 million to 7.0 million - which means he's no longer cheap. And I pointed out at the start of the season that the mid-price forwards really aren't very attractive this year, because there are so many excellent options who cost only between 5.5 and 6.5 million.

If you already have Jackson (or Isak or Watkins.... or, of course, Haaland) as a more premium selection to lead your attack, and any two (or any three) from the so-far excellent Wood, Welbeck, Joao Pedro, Delap, Wissa... why would you spend a transfer on replacing one of these with Cunha, who looks like he'll have, at best, another 5 or 6 games of promising scoring opportunities before another LONG run of misery for Wolves? Jackson, Isak, Watkins, Joao Pedro, and Wood certainly all look better picks for the long-term - because, even if they're not better players, they play in much, much better teams where they have super-talented creative teammates (Palmer and Neto; Gordon and Guimaraes; Bailey and Rogers; Mitoma and Rutter; Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi) who are constantly helping to generate chances for them. Cunha is pretty much having to do everything on his own.