The Cult of Aston Villa??

I originally made these remarks last week, in my regular rundown of the main Gameweek selection issues; but they seemed a little out of place there, so I thought I'd rewrite them slightly and give them the space of their own post now.

This train of thought was initially triggered by pondering the Morgan Rogers phenomenon. An astonishing 17% of FPL managers owned him after GW5 (now up to nearly 21%!), most of them from the start of the season; presumably just because he seemed worth taking a punt on at only 5 million quid, after a good showing in pre-season. But it might well have been a fairly unthinking choice for many, simply the cheapest 5th seat option to fill out the midfield roster, if trying to save money to afford Haaland (or Salah or Palmer...).

He was indeed fantastic for Villa in pre-season, scoring a few goals. He then - slightly unexpectedly - become a regular starter, and a key player for them. He has been playing extremely well in the early games, without registering any FPL returns. Then, in GW5 he produced a couple of excellent assists. And he still only cost 5.0 million! 

However, I didn't see an argument for bringing him in (if you didn't already have him), and I still don't. My misgivings are that he's playing as quite a deep No. 10, mostly quite central; unless he gets out wide more, or up around the penalty box more often, he's not likely to register any goals, or many assists (he's claimed a number of 'pre-assists' - but you don't earn any points for those); you can be a very good player without earning any FPL points recognition for it... and, so far, Rogers has mostly been one of those.

Well, that was what I said a week ago. And then, of course, the Rogers fandom get all I-told-you-so triumphalist because he finally a scored a goal this weekend. Sorry, that proves nothing. That goal found him drawn into the central attacking position because Ollie Watkins had, somewhat unusually, pulled out wide on to the left wing; the ball was actually played to him by a defender's mis-kicked clearance; and even then his first instinct was to lay the ball off to Watkins rather than attempting a strike himself; only when that pass drew three defenders towards Watkins, and Watkins returned it smartly to him to allow him a fairly easy finish, did he grab his chance. I haven't seen Rogers's 'touch map' for the game, but I'd guess that might have been the only time he got on the ball in the box. That was not a goal that suggests he's now likely to become a regular scorer. Quite the opposite - it was obviously something of a freak occurrence, and there was much about it that confirmed all my previous misgivings about the way Emery has him playing.

Good - potentially great - though he is, Rogers has been mostly playing far too deep to get many assists or goal opportunities; and even when he does get up around the box, he's tending to be too unselfish - always looking for Watkins (or Bailey, or someone else) as the goal outlet. Perhaps he will gradually start pushing forward more, especially as McGinn, usually Villa's most attack-minded midfielder, is now out for a while with a hamstring problem. I don't at all write off the chances for Rogers becoming a significant FPL asset; I'm just very sceptical as to whether he's become that yet.

But Rogers is just the most conspicuous example of an odd mass hysteria going on around Aston Villa this season (perhaps because they were last year's 'most improved' club??).  Going into Gameweek 6, Emi Martinez had over 13% ownership, yet wasn't even in the top 15 goalkeepers.  Konsa was at nearly 14% ownership, but - even after scoring a rare-as-hen's-teeth goal in GW5 - wasn't even in the top 10 defenders at his price-point! Rogers barely scraped into the top 15 midfielders in the sub-6-million category. Onana (nearly 12% owned) was only 4th in that bracket (and his 2 early goals were obviously a bit of a flash-in-the-pan; a stolid central defensive midfielder, but very unlikely to make a charge for the Golden Boot...). And Jhon Duran was up to 5.5% ownership - despite costing over 6 million, and not being a first-team starter?! 

This exaggerated enthusiasm for Villa players is only likely to intensify after their historic win over Bayern on Wednesday night (I had the joy of being able to watch that in a pub in Birmingham). Duran's stunning winner there is driving many to think that he might soon be getting a start in the Villa attack, and he's now surged above 6.5% ownership. If that happens (still unlikely), he's going to be sharing the goals with Watkins, not displacing him. He does indeed look a very exciting player, and should be good for a fair few goals, even off the bench (I tipped him as a prospect in pre-season, and was hoping one of the rumoured transfers to a club where he'd get a regular start would come off). But at the moment, he's just a super-sub - and that's not worth having in FPL.

All of this is MADNESS: none of these players are remotely worth considering, even as a 'cheap' last choice. Is Unai Emery some sort of weird cult leader...???