Luck-o-Meter (6)

Oh dear, after a blissful - but probably freakish - week of almost no refereeing cock-ups last time, we were back to business-as-usual in Gameweek 6.

Leicester were so overwhelmed by Arsenal that they can't really dispute the result; but they can feel rightfully aggrieved that Arsenal finished with 11 men still on the pitch. Saliba could have, should have picked up a yellow for holding back Vardy (the foul that should have invalidated Arsenal's breakthrough goal), which would have meant that his later 'professional foul' on the veteran forward would have got him sent off. But a not-given 'first yellow' is, of course, always a bit more tenuous in its impact, as a player is likely to be more cautious to avoid further offences if carded early on. Calafiori's blatant trip later in the game, when already on a yellow, was a clearcut case of a mandatory second card that would remove him from the pitch.

Getting that first goal when they did could have had a major impact on the course of the game as well. If Leicester had been able to hang on till half-time, maybe they could have got into the match more...  And once again, we have to wonder what the VAR team are doing this season. They are supposed to examine all possible fouls in the passage of play leading to a goal; and Arsenal's turnover of possession at the start of that scoring move was clearly the result of Saliba tugging Vardy's shoulder and throwing him off balance. WTF?

Arsenal may feel they might have had a penalty, but I didn't see much in Faes's challenge on Calafiori - and even the 'victim' didn't complain much about it, which is usually a sign that the incident was innocuous. Trossard scored Arsenal's second moments later anyway, so that would have made no difference to the result.... though quite a bit to the FPL points!

And how was James Justin credited with both goals, when the first clearly went in off Havertz's shoulder?! Fewer points for the Leicester defender and an own-goal deduction for Havertz would be a major swing in the FPL returns for that match.

In an extraordinarily eventful game, we saw a number of other freak-ish moments: an astonishing 13 saves from Hermansen, including a brilliant double-stop from Gabriel (particularly impressive), and then Calafiori on the follow-up; Trossard hitting the post; and that wonder-volley from Justin! And a very fortuitous final goal for Havertz...

And how did Gabriel not score, with 17 corners in the game??

Just that one fixture might have had vastly different FPL outcomes. And then we had the Chelsea v Brighton humdinger!

A lot of FPL folks seem aggrieved at how 'surprising' Palmer's superb showing in this game was (they shouldn't have been surprised: he's been playing excellently all season, even in the difficult opener against City). And they gripe that a 25-point haul is a 'black swan event'... but, well, for Palmer, it's really not: you can probably count on him putting in a performance like that at least two or three times a season. Managers who are smarting because they didn't have him this week should take comfort from the fact that things could have been very much worse for them. He put his first chance against the right-hand post. had his second effort ruled out for a very tight offside, and in the second half, he somehow stroked his easiest chance of the lot just wide... Jackson and Madueke both spurned good chances he set up for them as well. The Cold One could easily have notched 7 goals, and 2 or 3 assists - for a record-breaking 45 or 50-point haul! 

Estupinan was a little lucky to escape a straight red for denying a goal-scoring opportunity (though it was a long way out, and Webster was quite close by, providing possible cover); again, it made no difference to the result, as Palmer stroked home the 30-yard free-kick; but it was another questionable decision that affected the FPL points tally. Mateta getting flattened from behind by Tarkowski on the edge of the box was much more clearcut - how could that penalty be turned down? (And, yet again, no action from VAR??)  Ipswich captain Sam Morsy should also have been dismissed for a second bookable foul. But of course, Bruno Fernandes' red card was ridiculous - and seems likely to be overturned on appeal (but that won't help FPL managers; although anyone that had Bruno in their team doesn't deserve any favours!!); and once again, VAR did nothing?

Murillo was a little lucky to escape conceding a second penalty against Fulham after bumbling into the back of Tete (which surely would have given Raul an even better haul for the weekend); but the earlier challenge on Perreira looked slight, and there seemed to be no really clear view of it on the TV cameras - so, it seemed somewhat bizarre that VAR thought the referee should take a second look at it (is this the first time this season we've seen such an instruction?). Liverpool's late penalty similarly looked rather soft; but it was too tough a call for VAR to overrule the referee, or direct a pitchside review (it's still maddeningly unclear what the distinguishing criteria are for those two options). And Newcastle surely should have had a second penalty for Walker's clumsy challenge on Joelinton. Penalty decisions have been conspicuously bad all season; and VAR's unfathomable reluctance to provide any assistance on these incidents is making matters worse. I hope PGMOL are taking steps to address this, because it's really ruining the game at the moment.

Apart from Cole Palmer's dazzling display, there were few outstanding individual performances this week, and fewer spectacular goals or near misses than in many weeks so far. Garnacho and Johnson both hit efforts against the woodwork, and Romero's scissor-kick volley was only just wide. But it was great goalkeeping that had the bigger impact this week, with some exceptional saves, particularly from Ederson, Pope, and Vicario, and by Emi Martinez from Kalvin Phillips, and later from Delap (to deny him his hattrick). 

It was an unusually high-scoring week, though, with only Fulham and Spurs managing to keep clean sheets. And there were (again) a strangely high number of goals from defenders: Justin, Gvardiol, Konate, Guehi, Ait-Nouri, Harwood-Bellis (and a stunning assist from rampaging Micky van de Ven!)

However, there were no real upset results this week. Arsenal and Liverpool being given such a tough time by bottom-of-the-table clubs might have been slightly surprising (and unsettling for their fans) - but they still won, just about. And Villa being held to a draw by Ipswich was no doubt an upset to Villa fans, but shouldn't really have been a great surprise, since Villa haven't quite rediscovered last year's form yet, and Ipswich are clearly a much tougher opponent than the other two promoted sides.

No big surprises, either, in the major points returners: in the 'Team of the Week' this time, probably only Brighton's Carlos Baleba is a player that nobody owns; there's a strong case for having all of the others - even if, apart from Palmer and Watkins, they're not super-popular 'template' choices.

A final factor that should be weighed in the 'luck' scales is the weird BPS shenanigans that went on with Saka this week. He was originally awarded a BPS score of 39. This provoked a wave of outrage on the FPL forums as, even though he did indeed have a very lively and influential game, it seemed hard to justify giving him as much credit as Martinelli (who had both scored and assisted, which earn huge BPS merit; whereas Saka had managed neither in this game), and more than Trossard (who also had a goal and an assist) or Justin (who was credited with two goals). It seems the FPL minions were themselves embarrassed by this aberration, and somehow contrived to dock Saka a couple of his BPS points, so that he only got 1 bonus point rather than the 3 he was originally going to be awarded. I haven't seen any explanation offered for this odd subterfuge - which does rather undermine people's faith in the whole BPS system (which is widely unpopular for its often seemingly erratic and unfair distribution of the extra points, and its lack of transparency).

Overall, I think this Gameweek was less riddled with unlikely or unjust incidents than most, but some conspicuously dodgy refereeing calls still probably gets it up to a 6 out of 10 on the Luck-o-Meter.