Dilemmas of the Week - GW6

 Every week, we need to take a long hard look at our squad, and ask ourselves if we want to make any changes....

If we do see a pressing case for a change here or there, we then need to weigh that against the possible advantage of saving our transfer - 'rolling' it over to use in a future week. This option achieves greater tactical complexity this season with the new rule that allows us to save up as many as 5 Free Transfers to use at one time. If we ever manage to do that, it would in effect be a 'mini Wildcard', enabling us to conduct a major squad overhaul in one fell swoop (particularly useful as there are a handful of 'premium' players who cost so much more than everyone else that you can't conveniently move them in and out of your squad without making multiple other changes as well).

Then, of course, occasionally multiple changes may seem so inescapable that we have to consider whether it's worth spending points on 1 or 2 extra transfers (a tactic which obviously deserves a whole post of its own one day).

So, what are the conundrums we face ahead of Gameweek 6?

Does anybody need to be moved out because of injury?

The Sheep seem to be getting their collective knickers in a knot about Joao Pedro (owned by nearly 25% of managers! but surely only a third-choice for any of them...?) having picked up an ankle knock last weekend. It's said to be minor; he should only be out for a week or so. You don't waste transfers on problems like that.

Rodri, of course, is the only major loss this week. Though the pervasive rumour that he's done his ACL and might well miss the rest of the season is as yet unconfirmed by the club. I thought he didn't look to be in that much pain, and managed to hobble off the pitch unaided. With an ACL rupture, they just about always put a leg-brace on to stabilise the joint immediately, and take you off on a stretcher - so, I think it looks like something less serious than that. But we still don't know. He was probably only in a very small percentage of Fantasy teams anyway; but, given how badly City's form has suffered whenever they have been without him in recent years (win ratio way down, goals conceded way up.... resistance to the quick counter-attack, almost zero!), his absence probably diminishes the appeal of any City defensive assets you may have. I suspect this may tip the balance, in particular, against Gvardiol, who hasn't performed up to the absurdly inflated expectations people had of him when he became one of the most popular defender picks in initial drafts. On the other hand, the stock of Kovacic and Gundogan (and Rico Lewis?) may rise, as they can be expected to fill a more regular and prominent role in the Spaniard's absence.

In better news for City fans, Pep seems hopeful that DeBruyne, who picked up an injury in the Inter game last week, will be OK for this week.

Villa's John McGinn picked up a hamstring problem last weekend, and looks set to be out for a while; but he hadn't yet had much impact this year, and was very low-owned in Fantasy.

At Brentford, Norgaard missed the Spurs game last week with a minor problem, but Thomas Frank hopes he'll be back this week. Again, very low-owned.

Seamus Coleman's muscle injury picked up on international duty earlier this month is apparently much worse than originally thought, and he might now be absent for a while. Very, very low-owned.

The biggest injury news of the week is that Alisson (owned by more than 10%) seems likely to miss out again with his muscle injury, and is now joined by Raya with a similar problem (by far the highest-owned keeper in the game, at well over 30%). This probably diminishes the value of Liverpool and Arsenal defenders slightly; but it's a nice windfall for anyone who took a punt on Kelleher as their back-up keeper choice.... or anyone who omitted to ditch Neto when Bournemouth let him go. There's no reason to discard Alisson or Raya for short-term concerns like this. But goalkeeper injuries have been becoming more common and more serious recently. The temporary sidelining of the two top keepers in the game is a useful reminder that everyone needs a playing back-up keeper.

And, of course, Trossard and Gibbs-White are suspended this week, after getting themselves sent off last weekend. (Their owners should count themselves lucky it was only a one-week ban, as both offences might have been deemed 'violent conduct' or 'endangering an opponent'...)  [CORRECTION: Trossard was able to serve his ban in the mid-week League Cup game, so he is in fact available for this weekend's EPL game.]

Do we have any players who are dropped, or not looking likely to get the starts we hoped for?

Pep and Mikel love to give FPL managers sleepless nights, and they really outdid themselves with last Sunday's shock decisions to omit Rico Lewis and Ben White. I remain convinced that these guys are an indispensable choice for the roles they fill at the club, and have to be preferred starters every week (probably just being rested, or left out for a one-off tactical reason last time?). But who knows if our unpredictable super-managers will agree?  It is a worry for now. But I'd suggest a wait-and-see approach for at least a week or two before deciding to offload either of them.

Jota, of course, has been mysteriously dropped for two games, so apparently may have some sort of problem - or Slot just wants to share minutes between him and Nunez??  He's always - unfortunately - a dubious pick because of the high injury-risk associated with him; and he was always surely a distant third choice from the Liverpool attacking midfield behind Salah and Diaz. But yeah, if you have him.... might be time to say goodbye.

Did anyone have Mudryk?? I think Sancho is going to keep him in the Chelsea reserves this season.

Did anyone give other cause to consider dropping them?

Well.... we might be developing collective worries about Arsenal, if Raya's going to be out for more than a week. Theyre struggling creatively without Odegaard (expected to miss at least another three weeks), and have been relying more than usual on Raya's accurate distribution to beat the press with a variety of passes into midfield - indeed, often trying to go long to get a quick counter-attack going (although that hasn't been working too well so far, as they don't have anyone apart from Havertz who can win an aerial ball up front). Arsenal also have a little bit of a fixture speedbump coming up, with Liverpool, Newcastle, and Chelsea back-to-back from the end of next month (although three much easier games before that); so, it might perhaps be a time to consider moving away from the likes of Trossard or Havertz... or maybe even Saka.

With a weak-ish clean sheet record and a high threat of shared minutes, I don't think any of City's defenders were ever worth 6 million; with Rodri no longer present to screen them, their goals conceded numbers are likely to get even worse, and they can't be worth 5 million.... or even 4.5 (nor Ederson either, of course). Though Rico Lewis might still be worth 4.5 because he plays more as a midifielder and can pick up good attacking returns.

The Sheep seem to be losing confidence in Isak - but that's just daft. Newcastle aren't playing that well, but they're still a dangerous counter-attacking side, and Isak is a world-class finisher. You might consider dropping him because someone else is in sensational form and/or has more promising fixtures... but not because you have doubts about Isak himself.

Did anyone play so well, you have to consider bringing them in immediately?

Well, I'm surprised to find myself saying this - after being a frequent detractor and derider for much of last season - but... Nico Jackson!!  For some time last season (starting after the one-off hattrick against Spurs!) he became an unjustifably popular pick in FPL-land, and the forums were often inundated with posters asking if he or any other random striker should be preferred for the coming week. I grew so exasperated by this that I was eventually prompted to come up with the once-and-for-all response: "There is NO 'Jackson or....?' question to which the answer is 'Jackson'."  But.... I'm sorry, Nicolas Jackson, you have redeemed yourself!

To be fair, his pace and strength have always made him a handful, and even last season his finishing was quite slick in certain situations - especially when he was able to race clear on to a long ball and get in one-on-one with the keeper (just like his 2 goals last weekend). It was only in more static situations, where he had more defenders nearby to worry about, wasn't unsettling the keeper with his rapid advance, or just had a moment to pause and consider his options... that he would go all Darwin Nunez and spack it up. But his greater weakness last year was his movement off the ball; we often saw his midfielders - Palmer, Gallagher, Enzo - throwing their arms up in despair at his odd choices or bad timing, often just giving the ball to someone else, or attempting a shot themselves. He seems now to be getting much, much better in this department (though there's still some room for improvement; he still gets flagged offside far too often). And his form is white-hot; he's playing with huge energy and confidence. Haaland, Watkins, and Isak remain the 'holy trinity' of strikers this season, clearly a class above the rest of the field; but I think Jackson currently edges out the best of the rest: Solanke, Havertz, Mateta.

Raul is suddenly looking very sharp at Fulham too, back to his pre-head injury best. But this might be a flash-in-the-pan. I'd counsel a wait-and-see, assess him for another few weeks before considering him for the third striker seat.

And I'm hesitant to jump on the Chris Wood bandwagon, since he has been notoriously inconsistent and injury-prone throughout his career, and Forest still don't look like a club who are going to be far away from relegation. But damn, he's in great form at the moment; and on pens too. I think the main argument against him is that, even at 6 million, he's a little expensive; there are several surprisingly good options even cheaper. But if this goal-streak continues, he's worth considering not just as a third-seat back-up, but as the second pick.

And for a couple of slightly more left-field suggestions, how about Lallana and Dibling at Southampton?  Their combination for the goal on Saturday was truly a thing of beauty. Dibling looks to be a very lively prospect, and an excellent finisher. And Lallana is playing as well as he ever has; I think he's likely to be providing the assists for the majority of whatever goals The Saints manage to score this season. Southampton are bound to be relegated; but they're not nearly as dire as Sheffield and Burnley were last season, and actually show quite a bit of threat going forward (so, they're more like Luton?). Both these guys are well worth considering if you're badly squeezed for budget on your last midfield slot.

Morgan Rogers is a conundrum. He was fantastic for Villa in pre-season, scoring a few goals. He has - slightly unexpectedly - become a regular starter, and a key player for them. He's been playing extremely well. And this weekend, he produced a couple of excellent assists. And he only costs 5.0 million! However, I don't see an argument for bringing him in.... if you don't already have him (around 17% do; but a lot of that was probably down to unthinking initial squad picks, just going for the cheapest available player to fill out the midfield roster). My misgivings are that he's playing as quite a deep No. 10, mostly quite central; unless he gets out wide more, or up around the penalty box more often, he's not likely to register any goals, or many assists (he's claimed a number of 'pre-assists' - but you don't earn any points for those); you can be a very good player without earning any FPL points recognition for it... and, so far, Rogers has been one of those.

BEST OF LUCK, EVERYONE!